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Paleodemographic Modeling in the Lower Mississippi River Valley

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Paleodemographic Modeling in the Lower Mississippi River Valley PALEODEMOGRAPHIC MODELING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY A Dissertation presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Missouri In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy BY JEFFREY S. ALVEY Michael O’Brien & Karthik Panchanathan, Co-Dissertation Supervisors JULY 2019 The undersigned, appointed by the dean of the Graduate School, have examined the dissertation entitled PALEODEMOGRAPHIC MODELING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY presented by Jeffrey S. Alvey, a candidate for the degree of doctor of philosophy, and hereby certify that, in their opinion, it is worthy of acceptance. Michael J. O’Brien (co-chair) Karthik Panchanathan (co-chair) R. Lee Lyman Michael D. Glascock DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to Dr. Janet Rafferty for teaching me the meaning of dedication and for helping me to always see the bigger picture. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation represents the conclusion of my 14-year academic career. Countless individuals have contributed to this journey and I thank them all. My formative undergraduate years at Mississippi State University were spent under the mentorship of a number of dedicated professors including Janet Rafferty, Evan Peacock, Homes Hogue, Jimmy Hardin, Joe Seger, and Paul Jacobs. All of these individuals played critically important roles in my development as an archaeologist. During my time at the University of Missouri I had the great luck to study with a group of individuals whose work I had long admired. I thank my dissertation committee, Michael O’Brien, Karthik Panchanathan, Lee Lyman, and Michael Glascock, for their encouragement and guidance in navigating this long and stressful process. Special thanks are also due to the many archaeologists whose diligent efforts to combine radiocarbon dates into state or regional databases made the research presented here possible. Those who deserve special thanks include David Abbott, John Connaway, Lela Donat, Heather Gibb, Robert Kelly, Michael Meinkoth, Erick Robinson, John Samuelsen, Paige Silcox, Douglas Sims, and Kevin Smith. Finally, I thank my parents, Charles and Louise Alvey, for their love and unfailing support and for setting me on this path so many years ago. I know you would be proud. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. ii LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................1 2 Exploring the Relationship between Maize Agriculture and Population Growth in the Central and Lower Mississippi River Valley and Adjacent Uplands ............................................................................3 Introduction ............................................................................................3 Paleodemography ...................................................................................4 Study Area .............................................................................................8 Materials and Methods .........................................................................12 Results ..................................................................................................22 Discussion ............................................................................................27 Conclusion ...........................................................................................35 3 Assessing Episodes of Prehistoric Regional Population Decline in the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Adjacent Uplands ........................38 Introduction ..........................................................................................38 Paleodemography in the Mississippi River Valley ..............................40 Materials and Methods .........................................................................43 Study Area ...........................................................................................46 Results ..................................................................................................49 Discussion ............................................................................................53 Conclusions ..........................................................................................58 4 The Problem of Undersampling for Models of Archaeological Occupations Derived from Shovel Testing and Its Consequences iii for Significance Determinations ......................................................................61 Introduction ..........................................................................................61 Sampling in Phase I Investigations ......................................................65 Assessing the Construction of Occupational Models in CRM ............70 Study Area ...........................................................................................73 Materials and Methods .........................................................................75 Results ..................................................................................................80 Discussion ............................................................................................88 Conclusions ..........................................................................................92 5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................95 6 References Cited ..............................................................................................96 7 Vita .................................................................................................................117 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Map showing the study region (cross-hatched) ...........................................9 2.2 Map showing the eco-zones defined for the study area and the locations of archaeological sites (black dots) from which radiocarbon dates were used ......................................................................11 2.3 Summed probability distributions demonstrating the effects of changes in sample size on the Lower LMV Alluvial Plain sample ...........22 2.4 Summed probability distribution curve (yellow) generated on 70 radiocarbon dates of maize specimens from 47 archaeological sites in the study area, as well as Kentucky and Illinois, overlaid on the curve (black) generated on 2,420 radiocarbon dates from 558 archaeological sites in the study area representing the past 6,000 years .................................................................................................24 2.5 SPD curve (yellow) generated on 70 radiocarbon dates of maize specimens from 47 archaeological sites in the study area, as well as Kentucky and Illinois, overlaid on SPD curves generated by eco-region for the past 6,000 years ............................................................26 2.6 Summed probability distribution curves generated on radiocarbon dates of maize specimens subdivided by geographic regions spanning the region between the study area and Mexico ..........................27 3.1 Map showing the eco-zones defined for the study area and the locations of archaeological sites (black dots) from which v radiocarbon dates were used ......................................................................48 3.2 Summed probability distribution curve generated on 1,952 radiocarbon dates from 527 archaeological sites in the study area representing the past 6,000 years ...............................................................50 3.3 SPD curves generated by eco-region for the past 6,000 years ...................50 3.4 Curves showing elevational shifts in settlement through time. Elevation values represent the average elevation of radiocarbon dates based on the site locations in Arkansas (orange line), Mississippi (blue line), and Louisiana (green line) from which they were obtained, which was calculated for each period shown along the x-axis. Shaded areas represent the 95% confidence interval ...............52 4.1 Map showing the locations of 44 sites used in this study ..........................74 4.2 Contour maps showing the excavation of shovel tests on a 10-m cruciform (A), 10-m grid (B), and 5-m grid (C) at site 22SM1436 to illustrate how shovel test patterning differs between each strategy. Gray numbers represent positive shovel tests that resulted from a change in shovel test patterning from the previous state ............................................................................................................76 4.3 Graph of changes in site size when comparing shovel testing on a 10-m cruciform (lower black dot) and 10-m grid (upper black dot) among 30 sites from study 1. Sites represented by single dot experienced no change ..............................................................82 4.4 Graph of difference values in artifact count and artifact type vi richness when comparing shovel testing on a 10-m cruciform and 10-m grid among 30 sites from study 1 ..............................................82 4.5 Graph of changes in site size when comparing shovel testing
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