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U.S. PV Market IEA PVPS Programme Workshop Wednesday, September Tom Kimbis, Vice President, Strategy & External Affairs, SEIA Justin Baca, Senior Research Manager, SEIA Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst, GTM Research March 29, 2012 © 2012 SEIA © 2012 SEIA About SEIA • Founded in 1974 • U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy • 1,000+ member companies from around the world • Members from across 50 states • Largest companies in the world as well as small installers • 14 official SEIA Chapters across the country • Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America • Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015 © 2012 SEIA Solar in America: Strong and Getting Stronger • 100,000 American workers in solar – double the number in 2009. • Employed at 5,600 companies – most of them small businesses – across all fifty states. • The fastest growing energy sector, and one of the fastest growing sectors of the U.S. economy – with 109% growth in PV installations in 2011. • More than 4,460 MW of installed solar electric capacity today across the U.S. © 2012 SEIA What the Future Holds– Looking Ahead • In 2012, we’ll see near-term challenges for the industry, especially for manufacturers • Since the beginning of 2010, 52 new U.S. solar manufacturing facilities have begun operations across America • By 2014-15, the U.S. is projected to become one of the world’s largest solar market alongside surging Chinese market. © 2012 SEIA Solar Market Insight: Year in Review 2011 • Detailed data on markets in top 23 states available in full report. • Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts. • Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes detailed market segment and state data. © 2012 SEIA SEIA/GTM Research Partnership • Industry need for up-to-date and reliable market data – Market reports issued every quarter • Member discount: benefit for SEIA members – Reliable market intelligence – Member discount makes SMI the most affordable market research available • Data to support SEIA’s advocacy mission • SEIA-GTM conferences • Email questions to [email protected] or [email protected] © 2012 SEIA Industry Overview • The value of solar installations grew to $8.4 billion in 2011 • Solar employment more than doubled from 2009 to 2011, topping 100,000 American workers Value of PV Installations U.S. Solar Workforce $9.0 120,000 $8.0 100,000 $7.0 $6.0 80,000 $5.0 60,000 $4.0 Billions Billions ($) $3.0 40,000 $2.0 20,000 $1.0 $- - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SEIA Estimate SEIA/GTM Research SEIA Estimate The Solar Foundation SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: Year In Review © 2012 SEIA U.S. Solar Business Locations in 2011 © 2012 SEIA U.S. Solar Industry Continues Strong Growth • PV demand grew 109% in 2011 U.S. PV Installations 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Installed Installed Capacity (MWdc) 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review" © 2012 SEIA U.S. PV Demand Forecast to Grow 53% in 2012 to Over 2.8 GW U.S. PV Installations Forecast 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Megawatts (DC) 3000 2000 1000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Annual Installations Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Projected Installations Source: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight, "2011 Year In Review" © 2012 SEIA Status of Market Diversity 2011 Annual 2011 2011 PV Installations by Major Market State Installations Ranking California 542.2 1 New Jersey 313.3 2 Rest of U.S. California 20% Arizona 273.2 3 29% New Mexico 115.8 4 Colorado 90.8 5 Next Five States New Jersey 34% 17% Pennsylvania 87.9 6 New York 59.9 7 North Carolina 54.8 8 Texas 47.1 9 Nevada 43.6 10 © 2012 SEIA U.S. to Lead in CSP • California, Arizona and Nevada are leading states • The current CSP pipeline contains over 5,000 MW of projects with signed PPAs CSP & CPV Forecast 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Megawatts (Mwac) 600 400 200 - Installations Forecast © 2012 SEIA SEIA’s 10 GW Goal Within Reach • SEIA’s goal of 10 GW annually by 2015 is achievable, but additional policies are needed, including: – Policies to support financing of solar projects, especially the Section 1603 Treasury Program – Long-term power purchase authority for federal agencies – Development of alternative financing mechanisms – Removal of local barriers to solar deployment © 2012 SEIA PV Manufacturing Across the U.S. © 2012 SEIA Solar Market Insight: Year in Review 2011 • Detailed data on markets in top 23 states available in full report. • Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts. • Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes detailed market segment and state data. © 2012 SEIA SEIA Membership • SEIA is working to build a strong solar industry across America • SEIA members receive the following benefits: – Registration and exhibiting discounts at SEIA conferences and tradeshows – Free registration for member webinars each month – Exclusive access to the SEIA solar tax manual – A free, optional listing in the SEIA member directory – Discounts on industry reports – Job postings – Members-only access to the Small Business Resource Center, a set of tools to help small businesses grow • To join, visit: http://www.seia.org/cs/join_seia. • For more information, email [email protected]. © 2012 SEIA Growing Importance of the U.S. Market Market Segment Growth Increasing Prevalence of Third-Party Residential Solar Non-Residential Market Trends Major Utility Projects Completed in 2011 Capacity Rank Project Name Developer State Power Purchaser EPC Firm (MWdc) 1 Mesquite Solar I - Phase 1 Sempra Generation 48 AZ Pacific Gas & Electric Zachry 2 San Luis Valley Solar Ranch Iberdrola 38 CO Xcel Energy - Colorado SunPower 3 The Long Island Solar Farm BP Solar 37 NY Long Island Power Authority Blue Oak Energy 4 Webberville Solar SunEdison 34 TX Austin Energy RES Americas 5 Stillwater Solar-Geothermal Plant Enel Green Power 27.6 NV NV Energy Bombard Renewable Energy 6 Roadrunner Solar Electric Facility NRG Energy 25 NM El Paso Electric First Solar 7 PG&E UOG Program - Stroud Solar Station Cupertino Electric 25 CA Pacific Gas & Electric Cupertino Electric 8 Copper Crossing Solar Ranch Iberdrola 23 AZ Salt River Project Fluor Corp. 9 Sun City Eurus Energy 23 CA Pacific Gas & Electric Ryan Company 10 Sand Drag Eurus Energy 21.8 CA Pacific Gas & Electric Ryan Company • In 2011, 28 projects over 10 MW were completed, this is up from just eight in 2010 and two in 2009 • Markets are spreading geographically as utilities strive to meet RPS goals • Over 9 GW of projects with signed utility off-take agreements slated for completion in the next five years State Markets in 2011 • State market dynamics remain independent through 2011 • Growth Prospects • Arizona • Massachusetts • Hawaii • Ohio • Risky Markets • New Jersey • Pennsylvania • North Carolina Average Installed Costs Decrease Shipments vs. Installations U.S. PV Production Trends U.S. PV Production Price Declines U.S. Concentrating Solar Update Major US Concentrating Solar Project Development Highlights Capacity Expected Project State Technology Construction Project Status Update (MW-ac) Completion Blythe CA CSP/PV 1000 Dec-10 ? Announced switch to PV from trough in August Ridgecrest CA CSP/PV 250 ? Announced switch to PV from trough in October Palen CA CSP/PV 500 ? Announced switch to PV from trough in October Amargosa Farm Road CA CSP/PV 500 ? Announced switch to PV from trough in October Ivanpah CA CSP 370 Oct-10 2013 Closed DOE loan guarantee for $1.6 billion in April 2011 Solana AZ CSP 250 Dec-10 2013 December 2011: Banco Santander to buy 45% equity stake. Mojave Solar Project CA CSP 250 Dec-10 2014 Approved by California PUC November 2011 Rice Solar Energy CA CSP 150 Sep-11 2014 Approved by California CEC December 2010 Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project NV CSP 110 Jun-11 2013 DOE Loan Guarantee for $737 million closed in Sept 2011 Genesis CA CSP 250 2013/2014 Loan Guarantee closed September 2011 Alamosa Solar CO CPV 30 May-11 2012 DOE Loan Guarantee for $90.6 million closed in Sept 2011 Hatch NM CPV 5 Jun-11 In Operation Imperial Solar Energy Center West CA CPV 150 2015 Long term PPA signed with California utility Capacity Installed by State (MWac) 2010 Total Q4 2011 2011 Total Cumulative MW-ac MW-ac MW-ac MW-ac Arizona 1.6 1.0 3.2 4.8 California 1.5 - 1.7 364.5 Colorado 1.6 - 0.8 2.4 Florida 75.0 - - 75.0 Hawaii 0.0 - - 0.8 Nevada - - - 64.0 New Mexico - - 6.0 6.0 Other 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total 79.8 1.0 11.7 517.5 Thank You & Contact Info For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight 2011 Year-in-Review™ report, please Tom Kimbis, VP of Strategy & External Affairs visit www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or Justin Baca, Senior Research Manager email Justin Freedman ([email protected]) Contact: [email protected] Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst Contact: [email protected] © 2012 SEIA .
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