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December 2020 Mer.Pdf MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW DEC. 2020 VOLUME 6 No. 12 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW The Monthly Economic Review is produced by the Cocoa beans The price of cocoa beans increased by 2.6 percent to US$2, 410.0 per metric ton Central Bank of Liberia (CBL). Inquiries concerning during the month compared to the preceding months on account of demand this publication should be addressed to: uncertainties for the commodity in Europe and North America. However, annual comparison of the price of cocoa beans showed a decline of 1.2 percent, from US$2,440.0 per metric ton recorded in December 2019. The Director Table 8: Global Commodity Prices Research, Policy & Planning Department Percent Change Dec - 19 Oct - 20 Nov- 20 Dec - 20 Central Bank of Liberia GLOBAL PRICE MoM YoY. P. O. Box 2048 (In price per Unit of Measure) Iron ore (US$/MT) 92.65 119.78 124.36 155.40 25.00 67.73 Ashmun & Lynch Streets, Monrovia, Liberia Gold (US$/Oz) 1,479.13 1,900.27 1,866.30 1,858.00 (0.44) 25.61 Contacts: +231-880-649103/886-246587/555-960556 Rubber (US$/MT) 1,660.00 2,190.00 2,300.00 2,330.00 1.30 40.36 Cocoa Beans (US$/MT) Email: [email protected] 2,440.00 2,290.00 2,350.00 2,410.00 2.55 (1.23) Palm oil (US$/MT) 769.73 819.27 917.81 1,016.00 10.70 31.99 Crude oil (US$/BBL) 63.35 39.90 42.30 48.70 15.13 (23.13) Food Price Index (FAO) 101.00 101.00 105.00 107.50 2.38 6.44 Rice_5% broken (US$/MT) 432.00 471.00 489.00 520.00 6.34 20.37 Sugar (US$/MT) 300.00 300.00 310.00 310.00 0.00 3.33 Commodity Price Index 119.99 110.72 115.08 97.40 (15.36) (18.83) Source : www.indexmundi.com, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ † - Revised 12 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS PAGE Iron ore The price of iron ore increased by 25.0 percent in December 2020, to US$155.4 Introduction …………………………………………………………………… 1 per metric ton. The rise was occasioned by increase in demand for the Overview ………………………………………………………………………. 1 commodity resulting from recovery in demand for steel amid supply constraint from Brazil. Compared with the price in the corresponding month of 2019, iron Real Sector and Price Developments…………………………………………. 2 ore price increased by 67.7 percent. Production Analysis of Key Commodities ……………………………. 2 Rubber Consumer Prices ………………………………………………………. 2 Rubber price increased slightly by 1.3 percent to US$2,330.0 per metric ton compared with the price in the preceding month. The performance was mainly Monetary Developments ………………………………………………………. 3 due to weak supply in the face of increased demand occasioned by expansion in Monetary Policy Stance ……………………………………………… 3 the production of rubber products. The price increased by 40.4 percent Monetary Aggregates …………………………………………………. 3 compared with the US$1,660.0 per metric ton reported for December 2019. Financial Market Developments ……………………………………………… 4 Crude oil (Petroleum) price The price of petroleum rose in December 2020 by 15.1 percent to US$48.7 per Banking Sector Developments ………………………………………………… 6 barrel due to increase in demand induced by inventory drawdown. Annual Fiscal Sector Developments …………………………………………………… 7 comparison showed that the price of petroleum fell by 23.1 percent, from the External Sector Developments ………………………………………………… 8 price in December 2019. Food Price (FAO)/1 Merchandise Trade ……………………………………………………...8 The price of food, based on FAO food price index, showed an increase of 2.4 Direction of Trade ……………………………………………………… 9 percent in December 2020, compared with the November 2020 index. The persistent rise in food price index during the month was on account of increases Remittances ……………………………………………………………. 9 in the prices of mainly vegetable oil, cereals, dairy and meat. Food price rose by Gross International Reserves and Months of Import Cover …………… 10 6.4 percent compared with the price in December 2019. Exchange Rates Developments ………………………………………………... 10 Sugar Global Commodity Price Developments ……………………………………… 11 Compared to the preceding month, the price of sugar remained stable at US$310.0 per metric ton. Despite unfavorable weather condition experienced in previous month, Brazil and India did not make any substantial change in the TABLE supply of sugar during the period. On the other hand, the price of sugar increased by 3.3 percent, from US$300.0 per metric ton in December 2019. Table 1: Production and Price Statistics ………………………………….. 3 Rice Table 2: Monetary Aggregates Statistics ………………………………….. 4 Rice price rose further by 6.3 percent in December 2020 to US$520.0 per Table 3: Financial Market and Interest Rates Statistics ………………. 5 metric ton, mainly underpinned by low supply of the commodity from part of Asia. Similarly, annual comparison of the price of the commodity showed 20.4 Table 4: Selected Financial Soundness Indicators, FSIs ………………. 6 percent increase, from US$432.0 per metric ton. Table 5: Fiscal Sector Statistics ……………………………………………. 7 Palm oil Table 6: External Sector Statistics ……………………………………………... 8 Palm oil price rose by 10.7 percent to US$1,016.0 per metric ton compared to Table 7: WAMZ Countries End-of-Period Exchange Rates ………………… 10 the preceding month. The increase was underpinned by a sharp reduction in supply from major producing countries, partly explained by rise of export duties Table 8: Global Prices ……………………………………………………… 12 by Indonesia on the commodity. Year-on-year comparison of the price of palm oil reflected 32.0 percent rise, from US$769.7 per metric ton in December 2019. 11 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW INTRODUCTION The rise in net inflow was mainly explained by growth in inward remittances. In the The Monthly Economic Review (MER) is a regular publication of the Central month of December, both inflows and outflows rose by US$5.5 million to US$31.0 Bank of Liberia (CBL) that provides a snapshot of major economic developments million and US$3.4 million to US$8.8 million, respectively. in key sectors (Real, Monetary, Fiscal and External) of Liberia. The MER also highlights the Monetary Policy Stance of the CBL and exchange rate developments Gross International Reserves in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). Gross international reserves (GIR) grew by 5.2 percent to US$294.4 million, from the stock reported in November 2020. The rise in GIR during the month was offset by an OVERVIEW increase in payments for mainly goods. The months of import; however, remained Production statistics of key commodities in December 2020 showed improvement. stable at an estimated 2.4 months. Compared with the ECOWAS benchmark of 3.0 Production of gold, diamond, iron ore, cement, rubber, and beverage increased. months, the months of import cover recorded a shortfall of 0.6 month (same as the previous month) below the regional threshold (Table 6). Headline inflation for the month rose due to increases in the prices of domestic food items as well as housing, water, electricity, gas (including other fuels), and EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS restaurants and hotels related items. Core inflation,1 similarly rose during the The end-of-period (EOP) exchange rate showed that the Liberian dollar depreciated review period. against the US dollar by 4.1 percent to L$164.22/US$1.00 at end December 2020. In Production statistics of key commodities in December 2020 showed improvement. terms of the period average exchange rate, the Liberia dollar marginally appreciated to Production of gold, diamond, iron ore, cement, rubber, and beverage increased. L$161.55/US$1.00 in the month of December 2020, from L$162.79/US$1.00 recorded Headline inflation for the month rose due to increases in the prices of domestic in November 2020. The low volatility in the exchange rate was partly attributed to the food items as well as housing, water, electricity, gas (including other fuels), and CBL’s liquidity management and net inflow of remittances. restaurants and hotels related items. Core inflation,1 similarly rose during the Considering the EOP exchange rate, developments in the foreign exchange market of review period. the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) at end-December 2020 showed that, except the Nigerian Naira that stabilized at NGN379.50/US1.00, the other currencies During the month, the CBL maintained its monetary policy stance on price stability to manage Liberian dollar liquidity. The CBL bills and the reserve in the Zone depreciated. The Guinean Franc depreciated by 1.0 percent, the Gambian requirement were the main monetary policy instruments used to manage the Dalasi by 0.9 percent, the Sierra Leonean Leone by 0.7 percent and the Ghanaian Cedi liquidity and exchange rate. by 0.2 percent. Annual comparison showed that except the Gambian Dalasi and the Liberian dollar that appreciated, all the WAMZ currencies depreciated against the Movements in broad money supply (M2) was influenced by both the asset and United States dollar. The highest annual and lowest depreciations were reported for liability categories during the month. From the asset category, M2 grew due to the Nigerian Naira by 19.3 percent and the Ghanaian cedi by 3.2 percent, respectively increases in both the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) and Net Foreign Assets (NFA), (Table 7). while on the liability side, the rise in M2 was largely due to upticks in time and savings deposits as well as demand deposits. Most of the indicators of the banking Table 7: Exchange Rates: WAMZ Countries End-of-Period Exchange Rates industry were generally in compliance with regulatory requirements.
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