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February 2021 Monthly Economic Review

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February 2021 Monthly Economic Review MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW FEB. 2021 VOLUME 7 No. 2 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW The five main sources of imports to Liberia during the month were India, Cote The Monthly Economic Review is produced by the d’Ivoire, China, Turkey, and the United States of America. However, imports from Cote d’Ivoire, the United States and Turkey rose, while exports from India and Central Bank of Liberia (CBL). Inquiries concerning China dropped. Payments for the purchase of minerals, fuels and lubricants and this publication should be addressed to: some live animals from Cote d’Ivoire rose by US$3.3 million to US$16.8 million. Additionally, import payments to Turkey (mainly for manufactured goods classified by materials) increased by US$1.7 million to US$8.5 million and payments to the The Director United States (mainly machinery and transport equipment) increased by US$1.4 million to US$5.6 million. However, payments for mostly food and live animals and Research, Policy & Planning Department manufacturing products from India decreased by US$17.7 million to US$20.9 Central Bank of Liberia million and imports from China (especially manufacturing products, food, and live P. O. Box 2048 animals) reduced by US$6.5 million to US$9.8 million in comparison with the month of January 2021. Ashmun & Lynch Streets, Monrovia, Liberia EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS Contacts: +231-880-649103/886-246587/555-960556 At end-February 2021, both the end-of-period (EOP) and weighted average Email: [email protected] exchange rates showed depreciation of the Liberian dollar against the US dollar, relative to the rates reported at end-January 2021. The EOP exchange rate showed that the Liberian dollar depreciated against the US dollar by 1.7 percent to L$173.45/US$1.00. In terms of the weighted average exchange rate, the Liberia dollar also depreciated to L$172.55/US$1.00, from L$168.55/US$1.00 recorded in January 2021. The depreciation of the currency was largely attributed to the gradual uptick in demand for foreign exchange to service import payments, mainly to replenish stocks that were sold during the December festive season. Considering the EOP exchange rate, developments in the foreign exchange market of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) during the month were mixed. The EOP showed that the Nigerian Naira and the Ghanaian Cedi remained stable at NGN379.50/US$1.00 and GHC5.76/US$1.00. However, the Gambian Dalasi recorded slight appreciation of 0.1 percent, while the Guinean Franc and the Sierra Leonean Leone depreciated by 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Annual comparison showed that except the Liberian dollar that recorded appreciation, all the WAMZ currencies depreciated against the United States dollar during the month, relative to the previous month. The Nigerian Naira recorded the highest depreciation rate of 19.1 percent, while the Gambian Dalasi accounted for the lowest depreciation of 3.9 percent. Table 7: Exchange Rates: Official and WAMZ Countries End-of-Period Exchange Rates against the US Dollar Appr (+)/Depr (-) Rate & Currency Feb - 20 Dec - 20 Jan - 21 Feb - 21 MoM YoY Exchange Rate LD/USD Percent change End of Period 197.57 164.22 170.59 173.45 (1.65) 13.90 Period Average 196.76 161.55 168.55 172.55 (2.32) 14.03 Currency Currency per USD GHC 5.29 5.72 5.76 5.76 0.04 (8.14) GMD 47.83 50.44 49.85 49.78 0.14 (3.92) GNF 9,365.23 9,930.56 10,031.37 10,080.13 (0.48) (7.09) NGN 306.95 379.50 379.50 379.50 0.00 (19.12) SLL 9,753.05 10,091.68 10177.88 10,207.30 (0.29) (4.45) Source: CBL, WAMA: www.amao-wama.org/ GHC - Ghanaian Cedi; LD - Liberian Dollar; GMD - Gambian Dalasi; USD – United States Dollar; GNF - Guinean Franc; NGN - Nigerian Naira; SLL—Sierra Leonean Leone; USD – United States Dollar 12 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW Other Indicators Import (FOB) 71.33 99.21 104.27 92.92 TABLE OF CONTENTS Gross International Reserves (GIR)/2 250.21 294.40 295.48 288.83 PAGE Net Foreign Reserves Position 30.15 0.05 1.02 (5.31) Import covers (In Month) 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 Introduction …………………………………………………………………… 1 Personal Remittances Overview ………………………………………………………………………. 1 Inflows 27.24 31.00 28.54 27.29 Outflows 10.43 8.78 4.40 6.24 Real Sector and Price Developments…………………………………………. 2 Net flows 16.81 22.22 24.14 21.05 Production Analysis of Key Commodities ……………………………. 2 Direction of Trade (DOT) Consumer Prices ………………………………………………………. 2 Destination of Export 47.21 71.26 88.32 63.89 Monetary Developments ………………………………………………………. 3 o/w Switzerland 13.97 23.73 32.54 17.06 o/w France 6.74 18.03 15.92 16.84 Monetary Policy Stance ……………………………………………… 3 o/w Poland 2.24 7.62 5.76 10.78 o/w Germany 1.71 8.64 4.11 8.47 Monetary Aggregates …………………………………………………. 4 Sources of Import (fob) 71.33 99.21 104.27 92.92 Financial Market Developments ……………………………………………… 5 o/w India 5.81 16.89 38.59 20.94 o/w Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) 20.78 11.98 13.48 16.80 Banking Sector Developments ………………………………………………… 6 o/w China 13.01 15.23 16.29 9.82 Fiscal Sector Developments …………………………………………………… 7 o/w Turkey 4.32 7.83 6.78 8.50 o/w United States of America 6.10 7.85 4.23 5.60 External Sector Developments ………………………………………………… 8 Source : LRA (ASYCUDA), AML, MLME, FSL & CBL /1 Trade data are primarily sourced from LRA (Custom) with larger coverage that BIVAC. Merchandise Trade …………………………………………………….. 8 /1† as of July 2020, import data reported here are on CIF instead of FOB /2 (GIR) is the sum of net foreign reserve plus SDR and Reserve tranche Remittances ……………………………………………………………. 11 † - Revised ≠ - Not Available (na) * - estimate Gross International Reserves and Months of Import Cover …………… 11 Remittances Direction of Trade ……………………………………………………… 11 The flows of personal remittances in February 2021 resulted to a net inflow of Exchange Rates Developments ………………………………………………... 12 US$21.1 million (0.7 percent of GDP), falling by 12.8 percent from the US$24.1 million (0.8 percent of GDP) reported in the preceding month. The reduction in net flow was explained by decline in inflows of personal TABLE remittances by 4.4 percent to US$27.3 million (0.9 percent of GDP). Table 1: Production and Price Statistics ………………………………….. 3 Gross International Reserves Table 2: Monetary Aggregates Statistics ………………………………….. 4 Following a marginal growth in the first month of 2021, gross international reserves (GIR) declined by 2.2 percent to a stock of US$288.8 million in Table 3: Financial Market and Interest Rates Statistics ………………. 5 February 2021. The decline in GIR during the month was offset by an estimated Table 4: Selected Financial Soundness Indicators, FSIs ………………. 7 increase in payments for services, resulting to 2.2 months of import. Compared with the ECOWAS benchmark of 3.0 months, the months of import cover Table 5: Fiscal Sector Statistics ……………………………………………. 8 recorded a shortfall of 0.8 month below the regional threshold (Table 6). Table 6: External Sector Statistics ……………………………………………... 10 Direction of Trade (DOT) Table 7: Exchange Rate: Official and WAMZ Countries End-of-Period Exchange…..12 In February 2021, Switzerland, France, Poland, and Germany were the main destinations of Liberia’s exports. Exports to Switzerland (mainly gold) fell by 47.6 percent to US$17.1 million, from US$32.5 million recorded in the previous month. 11 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW Rice INTRODUCTION In three consecutive months (beginning December 2020) the price of rice has been taking an upward trend. During the month under review, rice recorded a 2.2 percent The Monthly Economic Review (MER) is a regular publication of the Central increase to US$557.0 per metric ton, mainly underpinned by expectations of higher Bank of Liberia (CBL) that provides a snapshot of major economic developments demand for Thai rice, while top exporters in India and Vietnam both encountered in key sectors (Real, Monetary, Fiscal and External) of Liberia. The MER also export disruptions of the commodity due to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease. highlights the Monetary Policy Stance of the CBL and exchange rate developments Similarly, Year on Year comparison showed a 23.8 percent increase from US$450.0 in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). per metric ton in February 2020. OVERVIEW Cocoa Beans The price of cocoa beans recorded a marginal increase of 0.84 percent to US$2,410 In February 2021, outputs of key commodities, including iron ore, cement, and per metric ton from US$2,390 per metric recorded in the preceding month. The beverages decreased, while the production of gold and rubber increased. increase was on account of demand recovery in the largest chocolate markets of North Information related to the output of diamond was not available during the month. America and Europe. On the other hand, annual comparison of the price of cocoa Headline inflation moderated due to decrease in the prices of food and non- beans showed a decline of 11.0 percent, from US$2,720.0 per metric ton recorded in alcoholic beverages, as well as restaurants and hotels, among other components of February 2020. the CPI basket. Similarly, core inflation1 marginally moderated due to fall in the prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, education as well as Table 6: External Sector Statistics restaurants and hotels major groups.
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