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LTPF Chapter 7 Africa Transport Infrastructure Planning.Pdf CHAPTER 7 AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AFRICA TABLE OF TRANSPORT CONTENTS INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING 1. INTRODUCTION 419 2. OVERVIEW OF DEMAND 419 2.1 TOTAL FREIGHT SURFACE FLOWS (SADC COUNTRIES) 419 2.1.1 SOUTH AFRICA CROSS BORDER TRAFFIC (TRANSNET TRANSPORTATION MODEL) 419 2.1.2 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TOTAL ROAD AND RAIL FLOWS 421 2.1.3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE FLOWS 429 2.2 PORTS (ALL MAJOR AFRICAN PORTS) 432 2. OVERVIEW OF CONDITION AND CAPACITY STATUS QUO 434 2.1 RAIL 434 2.2 PORTS 439 2.3 PIPELINES 442 3. OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 444 3.1 KEY ISSUES AND TRENDS HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT 444 3.2 LESSONS LEARNED 445 3.3 OVERVIEW OF SADC CORRIDORS 446 3.3.1 SALIENT ISSUES NEGATIVELY IMPACTING ON CORRIDOR OPERATIONS 454 3.4 CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENTS AND PLANS 455 3.4 FORECASTED REGIONAL DEMAND 457 3.6 STRATEGIC RAIL PROJECTS 458 3.7 FOCUS AREAS 459 3.8 STRATEGIC PORT PROJECTS 470 3.9 MAJOR PORT PROJECTS 471 3.10 STRATEGIC PIPELINE PROJECTS 475 3.11 MAJOR PIPELINE PROJECTS 476 4. TRANSNET STRATEGIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS 477 4.1 STRATEGY 477 Please note this Long-Term Framework Plan is not a business or operational plan, and is unconstrained to capital planning and independent to other more detailed Transnet business and operating division (OD) plans. The LTPF is only a planning tool, to guide Transnet and all external and public stakeholders. The LTPF is published annually at www.transnet.net. Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 417 AFRICA ACRONYMS TRANSPORT AND ABBREVIATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AfDB African Development Bank AICD Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic ARTIN African Regional Transport Infrastructure Network AUC African Union Commission bbl/d Billion barrels per day (oil) BBR Beitbridge Bulawayo Railways BR Botswana Railways bcm Billion cubic metres per year CCFB Companhia Dos Caminhos De Ferro Da Beira CDN Railway Systems of Northern Mozambique (Corredor de Desenvolvimento do Norte) Also see CFM-North CEAR Central East African Railways CFB Lobito - Benguela Railways (Caminhos de Ferro de Benguela) CFL Luanda Railways (Caminhos de Ferror de Luanda) CFMa Namibe Railways (Caminhos de Ferror de Namibe) CFM Railways and Ports of Mozambique (Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Mozambique) CFM-CENTRAL The Beira Railroad CFMK Chemin de Fer Matadi-Kinshasa CFM-NORTH The Nacala Corridor (Also see CDN) CFM-SOUTH The Maputo Railroad CFN Moçãmedes Railways (Caminhos de Ferro Namibe) CPCS CPCS Transcom International Limited CPMZ Companhia Pipeline Moçambique - Zimbabwe DRC The Democratic Republic of the Congo GDP Growth Domestic Product LCA Logistics Capacity Assessment Mscfd Million standard cubic foot per day (measure of gas flow) mtpa Million ton per annum NOCZIM National Oil Company of Zimbabwe NPCA NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency NRZ National Railways of Zimbabwe PAP Planned action plan PIDA Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa RSZ Railway Systems of Zambia SADC Southern African Development Community scf Standard cubic foot (a measure of quantity of gas) SETRAG Societe d’Exploitation du Transgabonais SNCC Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Congo SR Swaziland Railways TAZAMA Tanzania Zambia Mafuta Pipeline TAZARA Tanzania and Zambia Railway Authority Tcf Trillion cubic feet TFR Transnet Freight Rail TMSA Trademark SA UNCTAD United Nations conference on trade and development ZR Zambian Railways Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 418 AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING 1. INTRODUCTION One of the overarching objectives for Transnet as contained in the Shareholder compact is to “Integrate South Africa with the region and the rest of the continent”. In addition economic developments in the Southern African region present enormous opportunities for Transnet, as one of the major players in the national freight system, in the medium- to longer-term. The World Bank’s Africa Pulse report of October 2013 reports that economic activity remains strong in much of sub-Saharan Africa, underpinned by robust domestic demand. The economic outlook for the region seems to be very positive by all accounts. More than a decade of growth has helped to lower poverty, but the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity call for a sharp ramping up of effort. The World Bank projects GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa reflected to be 4,9 percent in 2013, rising to 5,3 percent in 2014 and 5,5 percent in 2015. In addition countries in SADC such as Mozambique, Zambia, Angola and Tanzania are amongst the fastest growing in the world even though it is from a low base. Transnet has therefore embarked on a much more focused African strategy. This chapter provides a view on the current infrastructure within the region as well as an overview on freight demand and regional corridor development strategies and plans. Major developments and opportunities concerning rail, port and pipeline infrastructure are highlighted. A very brief view is presented of the Transnet strategies and development plans for Africa. 2. OVERVIEW OF DEMAND The Regional Freight Demand Model (RFDM) 2015 investigates the economies of 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries are namely: Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The objective is to forecast the demand for the aforementioned countries over a 31- year forecast period to support the development of transport infrastructure projects with a good information system. The RFDM methodology can be divided into three components, namely the compilation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for each of the countries. Secondly, the calculation of the volumes per commodity for the base year takes place, and thirdly the forecasting thereof. 2.1 TOTAL FREIGHT SURFACE FLOWS (SADC COUNTRIES) 2.1.1 SOUTH AFRICA CROSS BORDER TRAFFIC (TRANSNET TRANSPORTATION MODEL) The TTM (Transnet Transportation Model) is a gravity flow model that produces flows of freight on the rail network, cross-border and through the port system. Inputs to the model are the RFDM (Freight Demand Model) origin- destination pairs, independent views on strategic commodities and network data. The cross border traffic under review here are total surface flows, irrespective of mode, (road, rail, pipelines and air). Only countries which border South Africa are under consideration. Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 419 AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING 2013 - 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) Country Border Post 2013 EX to 2044 EX to 2013 IM from 2044 IM from Botswana Ramatlhabama 2.61 5.44 0.95 5.55 Lesotho Maseru 3.03 6.82 0.38 0.90 Mozambique Komatipoort 8.63 27.91 0.18 0.73 Namibia Nakop 0.46 0.85 0.46 0.85 Swaziland Mananga 8.44 29.79 8.51 29.84 Zimbabwe Beitbridge 3.25 7.90 2.29 4.53 2013 – 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) 2013 – 2044 SA cross border traffic (mtpa) Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 420 AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING 2.1.2 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TOTAL ROAD AND RAIL FLOWS The demand data reflected here refers to total road, rail and pipeline freight surface flows, and no attempt has been made at this stage to establish what market share could be targeted by rail. The data is categorised into three sectors, agriculture, manufacturing and mining, and the entire raw data file can be provided on request. DOMESTIC FREIGHT TRAFFIC In 2013 the biggest domestic sector traffic was made up by mining at 357mtpa, with most of the volumes emanating from South Africa. This is expected to grow to 1 127mtpa by 2044. Agricultural domestic traffic was at 327mtpa in 2013 and is projected to grow to 1 100mtpa in 2044. The biggest growth prospects are in manufactured goods, forecasted to grow from 284mtpa in 2013 to 1 110mtpa by 2044. Most of the growth in manufactured goods volumes is seen in South Africa, Angola, DRC, Tanzania, Uganda and Mozambique. Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Country 2013 2019 2044 2013 2019 2044 2013 2019 2044 Angola 18 713 276 24 835 964 87 161 273 24 053 687 32 584 586 140 301 524 5 768 111 7 658 607 18 959 538 Botswana 405 391 413 694 1 003 351 6 850 537 7 928 349 18 246 113 9 040 078 9 543 249 28 271 916 Burundi 5 471 270 6 391 000 13 698 039 2 063 999 2 435 678 5 680 745 724 958 814 558 2 332 736 Congo 2 761 734 3 106 446 5 414 262 5 103 367 5 927 462 14 665 868 4 794 012 6 608 048 14 630 860 DRC 28 800 105 44 087 587 143 634 354 13 656 086 22 835 204 112 124 678 4 024 163 5 479 846 31 343 315 Kenya 34 263 426 39 150 089 81 782 057 21 393 295 23 861 766 63 736 112 1 980 513 3 393 678 10 222 463 Lesotho 275 531 367 275 571 498 2 009 867 2 542 066 4 701 993 105 146 126 764 745 933 Malawi 22 372 678 28 227 192 83 792 279 3 670 505 4 686 788 21 202 084 2 925 691 3 343 637 7 647 218 Mozambique 22 308 397 28 624 369 101 318 647 11 225 247 15 451 039 67 902 474 6 138 734 8 552 105 35 824 794 Namibia 713 399 1 070 925 3 317 452 5 200 361 8 421 629 29 388 901 891 881 2 801 699 5 157 479 Rwanda 13 993 872 18 296 699 62 341 684 2 943 072 4 105 361 22 204 082 780 997 1 074 949 3 366 759 South Africa 70 286 989 81 299 181 148 889 095 136 474 163 311 360 483 141 305 565 377 841 895 713 667 820 858 905 235 Swaziland 5 750 037 6 920 092 10 376 100 2 781 967 3 104 278 8 197 063 774 398 845 678 1 683 073 Tanzania 46 759 537 60 669 486 178 197 708 19 989 351 29 819 237 103 200 035 2 398 419 3 295 439 17 706 233 Uganda 33 685 089 53 215 376 102 787 528 11 473 284 23 185 213 59 640 620 1 720 346 3 631 265 12 378 781 Zambia 12 280 558 15 692 691 40 158 248 9 903 976 13 668 333 46 768 293 4 404 048 5 131 368 18 806 419 Zimbabwe 7 977 650 10 795 557 31 809 546 4 913 963 6 931 071 31 755 473 5 230 588 5 943 338 22 667 339 Grand Total 326 818 423 163 1 096 253 283 707 370 799 1 110 199 357 267 446 085 1 127 458 938 623 122 385 918 200 987 464 525 Domestic freight traffic Transnet SOC Ltd © LTPF 2016 421 AFRICA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING Domestic freight traffic per sector: 2013 - 2044 INTRA-REGIONAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS INTRA-REGIONAL IMPORTS Manufactured goods imports make up the biggest share of total goods imported.
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