UNEP-African Rift Geothermal Development Facility

UNEP - ARGeo UNEP-African Rift Geothermal Development Facility

Strategy and Scenario for development of Geothermal Resources in the East Africa Region

Meseret T. Zemedkun

Six Africa Rift Geothermal Conference (ARGeo C6) UNEP is the lead organization to coordinate environmental matters within the United Nations system. We produce environmental assessments and analyses, norms, guidelines and methods for use by stakeholders looking for guidance on how to effectively manage the environment for their sustainable development and economic growth UNEP’S seven THEMATIC AREAS

7 Divisions and Six Regional OFFICES

The Energy branch leads UNEP’s work on climate change mitigation by addressing the environmental consequences of energy production and use. THE EAST AFRICAN RIFT SYSTEM

Extends about 6500 Km from the Dead Sea Huge Geothermal Resource with (North) to Mozambique (South) Estimated Potential4 of > 20,000 MWe East African Countries Using Or Having Carried Out Research On Geothermal Resources Burundi Comoros DRC* Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia* Kenya* Malawi Mozambique Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zambia *

*Plant installed

5 STATUS OF GEOTHERMAL E&D

Countries Reconnaissance S. Detailed Detailed Drilling Feasibility Power Remark Development Burundi X ------Comoros X ------DRC X - - - - -

Djibouti X X X X - - - Eritrea X X X - - -

Ethiopia X X X X - X 7.2 MWe Kenya X X X X - X 655 MWe Rwanda X X X X - - - Tanzania X X X - - - - Uganda X X X - - -

Zambia X* X X X - - * Not F. plant 200KW

= Semi-Detailed = Detailed = Power generation = Reconnaissance 6 DISTRIBUTION OF INDIGENOUS RE SOURCES

Djibouti and Eritrea have no other known indigenous energy resources except potential for geothermal energy:

Rely 100% on petroleum fuels for commercial energy supply

Kenya is almost exhausting its hydro-potentials,

DRC, Zambia, Ethiopia, Uganda’s with relatively large hydro-potential are subject to climatic fluctuations.

Hydropower supply needs to be stabilized by suitable energy mix, using geothermal power generation.

THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH ENTHALPY GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN THE REGION SUITED TO LOW COST AND CLEAN ELECTRICITY GENERATION USING ESTABLISHED TECHNOLOGY.

GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL IN KENYA

> 10,000MW in over 23 sites

• Suswa, • Longonot, • Olkaria, • Eburru, • Menengai, • Arus-Bogoria, Menengai Block (1,600MW) • Lake Baringo, (Drilling Ongoing) • Korosi, 105 MWe tender • Paka, awarded to private • Lake Magadi, developers • Badlands, Olkaria Block(1,200MW) • Silali, (i)Installed 636 MW • Emuruangogolak, (ii)Developing 560MW (the first 140MWe • Namarunu Olkaria V advertised) • Barrier • Mwananyamala Private developers • Homa Hills already licensed at Olkaria, Akiira and • Nyambene Ridges Longonot fields • Chyulu Hills

Source: TMO; Internet Sources; Argeo 1 ETHIOPIA

•Exploration began in 1969 (UNDP & EG)

•About 22 Geothermal Prospect areas were identified in the whole ERV (covers 13% of the country)

•Much larger are for direct uses (agriculture, agro-industry etc)

9 DJIBOUTI DETAILED INVESTIGATION Consortium of donors- 50 MWe

Drilling operation is ongoing in Assal M. Abdou 2015

10 ERITREA

SEMI DETAILED DETAILED INVESTIGATION

Yohannes, E. 2008

11 DETAILED RWANDA INVESTIGATION -KARISMBI (2012) Two wells were drilled (2013-14) -Kinigi G.Prospect -Bugarama - Gisenyi Uwera , R. 2015

12 TANZANIA

$T $T$T $T

$T Semi-Detailed investigation Lake Natron geothermal field $T $T $T $T $T $T Detailed- Ngozi-Songwe $T $T

$T $T $T $T $T $T $T$T $T $T $T $T $T $T Rufiji geothermal field $T $T $T$T $T $T $T $T $T $T $T $T $T $T $T Mbeya geothermal field $T

13 UGANDA

SEMI DETAILED DETAILED INVESTIGATION

Katwe Kibiro Buranga Pynamir

Bahati , G. 2008 Kato. V. 2013

14 BURUNDI

RECONNAISSANCE

Oswald, 2013 ICEIDA, 2011

15 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

. Kiabukwa (Upemba rift) . Shallow wells . 91°C . 40 l/s . 1952: Binary pilot plant 0.2 MW; abandoned few years after commissioning

RECONNAISSANCE

16 16 THE COMOROS ISLANDS

Karthala volcano

KENGEN DID INVESTIGATIONS

17 MALAWI

• Reconnaissance stage of Exploration

• Identified a number of geothermal prospect areas

• Main Challenges: Inadequate skilled manpower, etc..

Chisambi, 2011

18 ZAMBIA

PD- Kalhari Geo Eergy Ltd commenced drilling in Kafue B. in 2013

Bwengwa River Low to medium temperature

RECONNAISSANCE Kapisya Prospect Lake Tanganyika " L ake Mweru ! Mp ulun gu TAN ZAN IA Sumbu National Park !! ! K asama ! Isoka D. R. CONGO

!MansaBangweulu Floodplains MALAWI North Luangwa National Park ! Mp ika ANGOLA !So lwezi Luambe National Park Kitwe! Kasanka National Park ! Ndo la South Luangwa National park

Chipata! ! Mkushi !Kapiri Mposhi Liuwa Plains National Park Kafue NationalZ Park A M B I A MOZAMBIQUE ! Mo ngu ! LusakLower a Zambezi National Park Lochinvar National Park ! Chirun du S iavonga!

Lake Kariba ZIMBABWE Sioma Ngwezi National Park 19 NAMIBIA !Livingstone Victoria Falls B OTSWA NA

Figure 8. Map of Zambia showing the location of Kapisya Geothermal Prospect STRATEGY FOR EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF GR IN EARS

20 STRAEGY FOR EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Strategic plan of Exploration and DevelopmentIN (Five EARS Years)

Countries Reconnaissance S.Detailed Detailed Drilling Feasibility Power Remark Development Burundi X X X - - - - Comoros X X X - - - 10-15 MW DRC X X X - -

Djibouti X X X X X X 50 MW (Assal) Eritrea X X X X X X ALID (PP) Ethiopia X X X X X X 580 MWe Kenya X X X X X X 880 MWe Rwanda X X X X X Binary (DU)

Tanzania X X X - - - 10-20 Mwe Uganda X X X X X -50 MWe

Zambia X* X X - - - * Not F. plant 200KW

= Detailed investigation = Power Generation 21 WHAT RESOURCES DO WE HAVE?

22 MAIN CHALLENGES/BARRIERS: • Large Upfront cost of geothermal exploration and development • Risks Associated with Resource Exploration and Power development • Inadequate skilled manpower and equipment for geothermal Resource Exploration and development • Limited national budgetary allocation and donor funding • Inadequate Private Sector Participation in the region • Lack of Supportive government policy and regulatory framework • Long lead project development time

STRATEGY TO FAST TRACK GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT

24 What to consider ! 1.The Resource

2.The Government

3.Policy, Laws and regulations

4.Institutional and infrastructural Capacities

5.The private sector

6.Support Programmes/development partners

7. Technology

25 THE RESOURCE- LTLCNPDMP

26 26 Comparisons with others sources GDC, 2011

Assessment criteria

Generation Low cost Location and Option US$c/kwh Availability Fast delivery* Environment friendly Natural potential transmission benefit Comments

• Geothermal 6.4 • Significant proven potential

• Wind • Significant potential, but dependent on 8.8 weather

• Nuclear 8.6 • Min plant size of 500 MW required, politically sensitive • Gas CNG 8.4 • Need to import, liquify for transport and re- gas • Coal 9.3 ? ? • Coal potential in Kitui

• MSD • Attractive intermediate 10.2 capacity, but not large base load

• Hydro** 12.5 • High exposure to hydrology risk (60% of installed capacity)

• Gas 16.5 • Current GTs running at high loads, need Kerosene more base load

• Solar 30-50 ? • Dependent on weather with low average availability • Could pursue along side coal opportunity • Co-gene- tbd ? ? ration

27 * Based on construction time – additional time would be needed for feasibility and other pre-construction activities 27 ** 6US cents/kwh based on importing hydro power from Ethiopia vs. 12 US cents/kwh based on remaining projects in Kenya, e.g. Mutonga *** Lower than 10 cents/kwh, greater than 80% availability, less than 3 years, lower than 0.20 CO2 kg/kwh and known natural potentia 27 GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT • Establishment of policy framework that attracts private investment • Government’s commitment to undertake the exploration risk • Setting up of favorable institutions to enhance exploration and development of the geothermal resource in the country (e.g. GDC in Kenya); • Upscale national investment • Recognition of geothermal energy as a viable solution for electricity generation and energy mix • Un-bundling the geothermal and electricity generation sector to cater for steam development, generation, transmission and distribution

28 GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT • Establishment of policy framework that attracts private investment • Government’s commitment to undertake the exploration risk • Setting up of favorable institutions to enhance exploration and development of the geothermal resource in the country (e.g. GDC in Kenya, TGDC, GDU); • Upscale national investment • Recognition of geothermal energy as a viable solution for electricity generation and energy mix • Un-bundling the geothermal and electricity generation sector to cater for steam development, generation, transmission and distribution

29 CLEAR AND COHERENT LEGISLATION AND REGULATION

• Geothermal Act ( Except in Kenya )

• Specific geothermal concession agreement; In most cases, geothermal is under mining law

• Appropriate institutional framework for exploring and developing geothermal resource: Kenya

• Specific geothermal Feed in Tariff.

Successful development of geothermal resource, is governed by laws and fulfilled by appropriate institutions

30 Effective Planning

• National Level Planning (NPDMP)

• Tactical Level Planning Prioritization/Ranking)

• Strategic Level Planning (Single Govt.entity or Concession in the form PPP/IPP)

31 Enablers –Technology Wellhead Generation INVESTORS TO INSTALL WELLHEADS FOR EARLY GENERATION

Characteristics  Typical Sizes – 5-10 MW  Containerized/portable  Mounted on the well pad  9 months to manufacture, ship and install  Cost USD 1.5 million/MW

Importance  Provide power shortly after drilling  Cheaper than conventional power plants  Provide revenue early  Improve the profitability of the project

32 32

3. REGIONAL STRATEGY

ADOPTING AN INTEGRATED REGIONAL APPROACH

TOWARD GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT TO WORK TOGETHER IN SUPPORT OF THE REGIONAL AND EVENTUAL CONTINENTAL OBJECTIVES IS A VEHICLE….

33 R. GEOTHERMAL SUPPORT P. (Among others)

• UNEP- African Rift Geothermal Development Facility Programme (ARGeo),

• AUC-German Development Bank (KfW)- GRMF and RGP

• Federal German Institute of Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR)

• Icelandic International Development Agency (ICEIDA) linked with WB

• United Nations University- Geothermal Training Programme (UNU-GTP)- Capacity Building

• USAID East Africa Geothermal Partnership (EAGP)

• EAGER- DFID

34 34

African Rift Geothermal Development Facility (ARGeo)

ARGeo: GEF Funded project with Financing of about USD 4.75M and Co-financing about USD 70 M (in kind and in Cash)

About: Rapid, targeted and demand driven technical and financial support to East African countries for the promotion and adoption of geothermal energy

Goal: To encourage both Private and Public developers to accelerate development of geothermal resource in the region through mitigation of risks associated with resource exploration

Target Countries: six GEF Funded ARGeo member countries namely: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Additional seven countries are also supported through this project with the support of partners. These countries include: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. GEF-FUNDED ARGeo TARGET COUNTRIES ERITREA

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

RWANDA

TANZANIA

UGANDA OTHER COUNTRIES -AGID ARGeo: Project Components

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR SURACE STUDIES POLICY ADVICE REGIONAL NETWORKING, INFORMATION SYSTEMS

AWARENESS CREATION CAPACITY BUILDING

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE for Surface Exploration Studies

Resource Exploration

1. Prospecting 2. Detailed Surface Exploration Phase I 3. Exploration Drilling and Well Testing COL- AUC Risk Mitigation Resource Assessment

Government 1. Appraisal Drilling Phase II 2. Feasibility Studies

Power Plant Development & Operations

1. Production Drilling & Well Testing 2. Environmental & Social Impact Assessment(ESIA) 3. Steam Field Development Phase III 4. Substation & Transmission Line Development 5. Power Plant Construction & Operations 6. Resource Management & Further

Development Government/ Private Government/ Power Developers Power

Source: KenGen;

UNEP-ARGeo Spearheads Efforts in CIFGD With MEMBER COUNTRIES with PARTNERS IN the Last Five Years

UNEP’s ARGeo Journey in the Last Five Years SUSTAINABILITY 2017-18

2016: ARGeo C-6 Skill Gap 2016: WB+TRM +TB-AGCE AGCE+EAGA 2016: Reviewing two 2014: ARGeo C-5 additional projects (T+U) Leapfrog

2014: Completed two projects and TRM. Launched AGID 2012: ARGeo C-4 2013: Two prioritized Surface Exploration (Silai and Tendaho) Projects started

2012: UNEP as a stand 2011 alone project- COL

ARGeo Ministerial Meeting in 2003 Nairobi- Resolution : Concept

Created Country’s Ownership: VB

Created Country’s Created VB Ownership: Created Country’s Created VB Ownership:

Countries “Own and Lead” the project - UNEP gives

service as per needs and expectations of countries

Created Partnership and Synergy

AUC

ICEIDA BGR US-Power Africa

Partnership and Synergy and Partnership

Partnership and Synergy and Partnership Created Created WB DFID Created Italy DC CTCN First two Completed projects

The UNEP ARGeo Project in 2014 completed two project pipelines of Silali (Kenya) and Tendaho (Ethiopia), which will be used for future investment and development and to be financed through AUC-KfW Geothermal Mitigation Facility, DFID and EU.

Silali Tendaho(Dubti- Ayrobera)

• ID Banks (KfW (USD 100M) and AfD Euro 20 M) developed interest to invest in these two confirmed geothermal resource sites.

Technical Assistance for Surface exploration studies Silali Geothermal Prospect, Kenya

• Provisioned Scientific equipment and Geochemical /physical softwares

• Recruited Senior consultants

• Conceptual Model with location of target sites for deep drilling

• Hands on experience and on the job training Technical Assistance for Surface exploration studies Tendaho Geothermal Prospect, Ethiopia

• Provisioned Scientific equipment and softwares

• Recruited Senior Consultants

• Conceptual Model with location of target sites for deep drilling

• Hands on experience and on the job training

Started implementation of surface studies in Alid (Eritrea) in 2015 Surface studies in Kibiro Geothermal Prospect , Uganda (2015-16)

• Procured Equipment

• Recruited consultants

• Currently Reviewing existing data and reports Surface studies in Ngozi-Songwe Geothermal Prospect , Tanzania (2015-16)

• Procured Equipment

• Recruited consultants NAIROBI • Currently Preparing the final report as per the comments of the TRM (May 2016) • SREP- 50 M USD

Field work @ Ngozi UNEP- Rwanda Geothermal Workshop (2015-16)

Rwanda:

• Reviewed the ISOR report on existing data in Rwanda

• Reviewed the results of surface studies of Kinigi and Gisenyi Geothermal prospects (May 2016)

• Organized the Western Rift Technical Workshop in Kigali, Rwanda in March 2016.

Spurred Geothermal interest through organization of Biennial Geothermal conferences (ARGEo-C4/C5)- November 2012/2014

• ARGeo-C4/C5 were among the UNEP ARGeo Project Biennial Geothermal Conferences being implemented under the “Regional networking, information systems, capacity building and awareness creation”.

• Brought together more than 600 international and regional delegates from 35 countries that includes policy makers, technical experts as well as developers and financiers.

51 Developed and Launched ARGeo East African Information Database

UN Environment Launching WEB –GIS AGID, 2 November 2016 AA, Ethiopia

www.agid.org Enhanced to GIS Based Database GEOTHERMAL WORKFORCE IN THECURRENT REGION TECHNICIANS STAFF

Prepared Skill gap Analysis report – Basis for establishment of AGCE

1024 Geoscientists 512

256

128

32 0-5 Years 35% Current Staff Required Staff 5-10 Years No. Staff No. of 16 30% 70% 21% 8

4 10-15 Years 2 14%

1 Comoros Djibouti DRC Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Mozambique Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Geoscientists Reservoir Engineers Drilling Engineers Plant Engineers

140

120

100

60 Number of Staff of Number

0 Geoscientists Geoscience Reserviour Reservoir Drilling Engineer Drilling Power Plant Plant Technicians Technicians Engineer Technicians Technicians Engineer

Age (20-30) Age (30-40) Age (40-50) Age (50-60) Male Female Provides matured institutional support to a more sustainable and institutionalize process of creating Africa Geothermal Center of Excellence (AGCE).

Members of Steering Committee of AGCE Representatives from 13 African Countries

Determined and identified needs and expectations of countries Organized A Technical Workshop on the Western Rift of EARS, 9-11 March 2016. Kigali, Rwanda

MFA-ICEIDA Game Changer!

Nature of Geothermal System Exploration methodology to be deployed Utilization and Development Co-organized the ARGeo C6 Conference Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 31 October 2016- 6 November 2016 Project implementation progress (achievement) so far: • Two geothermal resource sites (Silali and Tendaho (Dubti)) confirmed for further drilling and investment-

• Investment and development banks (KfW and AfD) developed interest to invest in the two confirmed geothermal resource sites.

• Integrated geo-scientific studies to develop conceptual model for other three geothermal sites in Tanzania, Uganda and Eritrea is underway.

• Strengthened institutional and infrastructural capacities of countries through CB (300 people from EA countries) , Policy advice and organizing biennial Geothermal Conferences

• Geothermal related data from 13 countries are accessible to public- AGID

• Broader partnership through AUC, MFA- Iceland, JICA, US Power Africa, AfDB, DFID, BGR, EU EI PDF, WB-ESMAP developed

• Additional leveraging of resources (both in kind and in cash) for ARGeo Phase 2 through these partnership- About 1.5 Million (in kind and in cash)

• Started an institutional support to a more sustainable and institutionalize process of creating Africa Geothermal Center of Excellence (AGCE) and EAGA.

Next Steps- 2017/18

• Ensure sustainability of geothermal resource development through Consolidating results of started activities of ARGeo in the last four years and provide the institutional support of AGCE and EAGA

• Finalize implementation of surface studies in Alid geothermal prospect, Eritrea, Kibiro (Uganda) and Ngozi (Tanzania) geothermal Prospects (4Q 2015)

• Develop tools and guidelines for Direct Use application on the basis of the outcome of the technical workshop on the WR

• In parallel work closely with AUC as per signed AM- Implementaion of PIDA Scenarios for GED in the region (AMC)

Country Geothermal Developer Status of prospects Drilling Activity TAF (Market, Potential Prospect Request for regulatory)- electricity SE Drilling Feasibility generation (MWe) Corbett Private (RG) SE completed -  Ethiopia Institutional Tendaho Public Limited SE required  (7.2 MWe) (more geophysics) Subjected to and Regulatory Drilling Framework; 450  Draft Feed in Tariff; PPA

Dofan-Fantale Private (UK, COSZUS) Detailed SE is  required  Abaya Private/public Detailed SE  ARGeo , ICEIDA, BGR, JICA Longonant Private (SKM) SE Completed  IF in place.. 800

Kenya Feed in tariff for investment PPP)+ (IPP + tariff in feed and PPA Limited SE  (250 MWe) Silali-Bogoria Public (Seismics) Subjected to about 8US – GRANTS GRMF  (40%)60%??Drilling cents/KWh Suswa Private Detailed SE  

Karismbi Public Limited SE and  IF & RF yet to 100 Rwanda (Gisenyi) eligible for GRMF PPA/be FiTrevised.

Kiningi Public Detailed SE  Subjected to Draft Feed in private sector encouraged encouraged sector private

Drilling tariff is in place. -  PRG

Mbeya Private Limited SE  IF & RF not in Tanzania  place. Task

Subjected to force is set up mitigated risk Rufiji Private (Local P) Detailed SE  -  Drilling for IRF.

Uganda Kibiro Public SE required   100

Katwe Private (PERTAMINA) Limited SE  Subjected to power development should be in place place in be should development power  Drilling proven Resource Eritrea Alid Public Limited SE  Subjected to Nabbro Dubbi Public Detailed SE  Drilling- WB ARGeo+ GRMF +ICEIDA+BGR USAID+BGR, EU WB,AfDB,EI funded Proj. Public developers are encouraged to ,KfW etc.

YEAR 1: 2013 Year 5: 2017

217 MWe Risk associated with EXPLoration is mitigated; PPP/IPP +500 MWe Meseret Teklemariam, UNEP +500MWe THANK YOU

CONTACT

MESERET TEKLEMARIAM Email: [email protected]