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Geothermal Development in Eastern Africa GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN AFRICA Recommendations for power and direct use Copyright © IRENA 2020 Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material herein are the property of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and are subject to copyright by IRENA. Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation of copyright (©IRENA) with the year of copyright. Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use. Citation: IRENA (2020), Geothermal Development in Eastern Africa: Recommendations for power and direct use, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-268-0 About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as-is”, for informational purposes. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material featured in this publication. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other, third-party content providers or licensors provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringement of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material therein. The material contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area, or their authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. 2 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN AFRICA ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IRENA is grateful for the valuable contributions of the energy experts and other relevant stakeholders in the preparation of this study. This includes all the participants involved in a survey carried out in July and August 2019 and in the online consultation meeting held on 28 October 2019. The report was reviewed by several experts, including Godfrey Bahati, Vincent Kato (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development - Uganda), Mike Allen (New Zealand), Hans Jaoko (USAID), Jon Jonsson (Reykjavik Geothermal), Antony Karembu (African Development Bank - AfDB), Crispin Lupe (Ministry of Energy - Kenya), Peketsa Mangi (Kenya Electricity Generating Company - Kenya), Chaheire Mohamed (Comoros), Kayad Moussa (ODDEG - Djibouti), Silvain Ngaryo (African Union Commission), Cornel Ofwona (Geothermal Development Company - Kenya), Andrew Palmateer (United States Energy Association), Julian Richardson (Parhelion), Eiji Wakamatsu (Japan International Cooperation Agency - JICA), Meseret Zemedkun (UNEP) and Jacques Varet (SARL Geo2D). Valuable input and feedback were provided by the following IRENA colleagues: Fabian Barrera, Nopenyo Dabla, Albertine Devillers, Annah Jabesh, Paul Komor, Yunshu Li, Asami Miketa, Paula Nardone, Carlos Ruiz, Jef Vincent, Elizabeth Wanjiru, Adrian Whiteman and Benson Zeyi. Contributors: This report was developed under the guidance of Gurbuz Gonul and Salvatore Vinci (IRENA) and authored by Luca Angelino and Jack Kiruja (IRENA) and Peter Omenda (consultant). IRENA is grateful for the support provided by the government of Japan in producing this publication. For further information or to provide feedback: [email protected] This report is available for download: www.irena.org/publications RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POWER AND DIRECT USE 3 CONTENTS FIGURES 6 TABLES 7 BOXES 7 PHOTOGRAPHS 8 ABBREAVATIONS 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 1. INTRODUCTION 16 2. ENERGY SECTOR LANDSCAPE 20 2.1 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 21 2.2 OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ENERGY SECTOR INSTITUTIONS AND INITIATIVES 22 2.3 OVERVIEW OF ENERGY TRENDS 26 2.4 ROLE OF GEOTHERMAL ENERGY 34 3. STATUS OF GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT AT REGIONAL AND COUNTRY LEVELS 42 3.1. REGIONAL OVERVIEW 43 3.2 STATUS BY COUNTRY 46 4. POLICIES, REGULATIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS 77 4.1. STATUS BY COUNTRY 78 4.2 LESSONS LEARNT AND PERSPECTIVES 87 4 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN AFRICA 5. GEOTHERMAL FINANCING AND DEVELOPMENT MODELS 89 5.1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOTHERMAL PROJECT FINANCING AND RISKS 90 5.2 FINANCING OPTIONS 95 5.3. INNOVATIVE FINANCING TO ADDRESS GAPS 102 5.4 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT MODELS 104 5.5 LESSONS LEARNT AND PERSPECTIVES 106 6. ENABLING UPTAKE OF DIRECT-USE APPLICATIONS 111 6.1 QUANTIFYING POTENTIAL AND BENEFITS 112 6.2 KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR DIRECT USE DEVELOPMENT 116 7. HARNESSING DIFFERENT RESOURCE TYPES AND SELECTING EXPLORATION METHODS 125 7.1 GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES ACROSS THE REGION 126 7.2 VOLCANO-HOSTED GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS 128 7.3 FAULT-HOSTED GEOTHERMAL SYSTEMS 131 7.4 EXPLORATION OF SHALLOW RESOURCES FOR DIRECT USE 134 8. CAPACITY AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT 135 9. CHALLENGES AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 141 9.1 MAIN BARRIERS TO GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT 142 9.2 KEY LESSONS LEARNT AND RECOMMENDATIONS 142 REFERENCES 146 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POWER AND DIRECT USE 5 FIGURES Figure 1: The East African Rift System structural map 17 Figure 2: Selected countries of the East Africa Rift region covered in the assessment 18 Figure 3: GDP per capita trends for the East African Rift countries 21 Figure 4: Population trends for the East African Rift countries 22 Figure 5: Domestic fuels production estimates by source (2018) 26 Figure 6: Domestic fuels production trends and projections by source 27 Figure 7: Grid connected electricity installed capacity (MWe) by source (2019) 28 Figure 8: Grid-connected electricity installed capacity trends by source 28 Figure 9: Grid-connected electricity generation capacity trends by source 29 Figure 10: Off-grid installed capacity by source (2019) 30 Figure 11: Off-grid electricity trends 31 Figure 12: Electrification rate (national, urban and rural setting) (2017) 32 Figure 13: National electricity access trends 33 Figure 14: The EAPP and SAPP interconnectors (2019) 34 Figure 15: Tectonic plates and global geological activity 35 Figure 16: Global LCOE of power generation technologies, 2010-2019 38 Figure 17: Weighted capacity factors for power generation technologies 39 Figure 18: Lindal diagram (modified) on some geothermal direct uses applicable to the East African Rift region 40 Figure 19: Grid connected installed electricity trends in Comoros by source 47 Figure 20: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Comoros 47 Figure 21: Grid-connected installed electricity trends in Djibouti 49 Figure 22: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Djibouti 49 Figure 23: Map of geothermal sites in Djibouti 50 Figure 24: Grid-connected installed electricity capacity trends in Ethiopia by source 52 Figure 25: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Ethiopia 53 Figure 26. Map of geothermal sites in Ethiopia 53 Figure 27: Grid-connected installed electricity capacity trends in Kenya by source 57 Figure 28: Monthly electricity generation/consumption trends in Kenya by source (2018) 58 Figure 29: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Kenya 58 Figure 30: Map of geothermal sites in Kenya 59 6 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN AFRICA Figure 31: Cumulative geothermal installed capacity trends for Kenya 61 Figure 32: Grid-connected electricity installed capacity trends in Tanzania by source 66 Figure 33: Domestic fuel production trends in Tanzania by source 67 Figure 34: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Tanzania 67 Figure 35: Map of geothermal sites in Tanzania 68 Figure 36: Grid-connected installed electricity capacity trends in Uganda by source 70 Figure 37: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Uganda 71 Figure 38. Map of geothermal sites in Uganda 71 Figure 39: Map of western Uganda showing the location of Kibiro, Buranga and Panyimur prospects 72 Figure 40: Grid-connected electricity installed capacity trends in Zambia by source 74 Figure 41: Domestic fuels production trends in Zambia by source 75 Figure 42: National, urban and rural electricity access trends in Zambia 75 Figure 43: Drilling success rate over time, by project phase 94 Figure 44: Regional Liquidity Support Facility scheme 103 Figure 45: Geothermal development models in the East African Rift region 104 Figure 46: Total income of the Geothermal Resource Park companies (2008-2013) 115 Figure 47: The model of a geothermal village 120 Figure 48: Model of a high-temperature volcano-hosted geothermal system: The case of Menengai 128 Figure 49: Menengai geothermal field 129 Figure 50: Sketch of a typical fault-hosted geothermal system in a rift
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