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Black Swans, Or the Limits of Statistical Modelling
Black swans, or the limits of statistical modelling Eric Marsden <[email protected]> Do I follow indicators that could tell me when my models may be wrong? On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. 2 / 58 A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. 2 / 58 Things that have never happened before, happen all the time. — Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, ‘‘ Accidents, And Nuclear Weapons, 1993 In risk analysis, these are called “unexampled events” or “outliers” or “black swans”. 3 / 58 The term “black swan” was used in16th century discussions of impossibility (all swans known to Europeans were white). Explorers arriving in Australia discovered a species of swan that is black. The term is now used to refer to events that occur though they had been thought to be impossible. 4 / 58 Black swans ▷ Characteristics of a black swan event: • an outlier • lies outside the realm of regular expectations • nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility • carries an extreme impact ▷ Note that: • in spite of its outlier status, it is often easy to produce an explanation for the event after the fact • a black swan event may be a surprise for some, but not for others; it’s a subjective, knowledge-dependent notion • warnings about the event may have been ignored because of strong personal and organizational resistance to changing beliefs and procedures Source: The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, N. -
A 2010 Supplement to Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard Papers in the Biological Sciences 2010 The World’s Waterfowl in the 21st Century: A 2010 Supplement to Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World Paul A. Johnsgard University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/biosciducksgeeseswans Part of the Ornithology Commons Johnsgard, Paul A., "The World’s Waterfowl in the 21st Century: A 2010 Supplement to Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World" (2010). Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard. 20. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/biosciducksgeeseswans/20 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Papers in the Biological Sciences at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. The World’s Waterfowl in the 21st Century: A 200 Supplement to Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World Paul A. Johnsgard Pages xvii–xxiii: recent taxonomic changes, I have revised sev- Introduction to the Family Anatidae eral of the range maps to conform with more current information. For these updates I have Since the 978 publication of my Ducks, Geese relied largely on Kear (2005). and Swans of the World hundreds if not thou- Other important waterfowl books published sands of publications on the Anatidae have since 978 and covering the entire waterfowl appeared, making a comprehensive literature family include an identification guide to the supplement and text updating impossible. -
ON 23(4) 555-567.Pdf
ORNITOLOGIA NEOTROPICAL 23: 555–567, 2012 © The Neotropical Ornithological Society REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY AND PAIR BEHAVIOR DURING INCUBATION OF THE BLACK-NECKED SWAN (CYGNUS MELANOCORYPHUS) Carmen Paz Silva1, Roberto Pablo Schlatter2 & Mauricio Soto-Gamboa1 1Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. E-mail: [email protected] 2Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. Resumen. – Biología reproductiva y comportamiento del Cisne de Cuello Negro (Cygnus melano- coryphus). – El cisne de cuello negro (Cygnus melanocoryphus) es la única especie del género Cygnus que habita en Sudamérica. Si bien, el resto de las especies del género han sido extensamente estudia- das, para C. melanocoryphus aún no se ha descrito la mayor parte de su biología reproductiva. En este estudio evaluamos el comienzo y extensión de la temporada reproductiva, y el tamaño de nidada utili- zando datos recolectados en el Santuario Carlos Anwandter (SCA), Valdivia, Chile; correspondientes a 18 temporadas reproductivas. Por otro lado, estudiamos el comportamiento de las parejas durante el periodo de incubación, durante una temporada reproductiva. Se estimó el presupuesto de tiempo y dis- tancia con respecto al nido en seis parejas nidificantes. El periodo de nidificación se puede extender desde junio a enero y está influenciado por el tamaño de la población reproductiva y las condiciones cli- máticas. El tamaño de nidada se mantiene constante con una moda de tres huevos (promedio 3.13 ± 0.017; n = 5897). Ambos miembros de la pareja desarrollan actividades de vigilancia y mantención del nido, sin embargo, la incubación es una tarea exclusiva de la hembra, mientras que la defensa activa del nido es realizada por el macho. -
Breeding Biology of the Magpie Goose
BREEDING BIOLOGY OF THE MAGPIE GOOSE Paul A. Johnsgard Summary A B r e e d in g pair of Magpie Geese was studied at the Wildfowl Trust during one breeding season and part of a second. Nest-building was performed by both sexes and was done in the typical anatid fashion of passing material back over the shoulders. Nests were built on land of sticks and green vegetation. Two copulations were observed, both of which occurred on the nest, and precopulatory as well as postcopulatory behaviour appears to differ greatly from the typical anatid patterns. Eggs were laid at approximate day-and-a-half intervals, and the nest was guarded by both sexes. Incubation was also performed by both sexes, with the male normally sitting during the night. A simple nest-relief ceremony is present. The eggs hatched after 28 to 30 days, and the goslings left the nest the morning after hatching. Unlike all other Anatidae so far studied, the goslings, in addition to foraging independently, are fed directly by their parents and a special whistling begging call associated with a gaping posture is present. It is suggested that the bright bill colouration and unusual cinnamon-coloured heads of downy Magpie Geese are also related to this parental feeding. The parents constructed a “ brood nest ” of herbaceous vegetation that the goslings rested and slept on, which is also unique among the Anatidae. Family bonds are strong, and a rudimentary form of “ triumph ceremony ” is present. Development of the young and moulting sequences of downy, juvenal, and immature plumages are described ; the presence of separate juvenal and immature plumages which are distinct from the adult plumage is apparently unique. -
Nature Terri Tory
NATURE TERRITORY November 2017 Newsletter of the Northern Territory Field Naturalists' Club Inc. In This Issue New Meeting Room p. 2 November Meeting p. 3 November Field Trip p. 4 October Field Trip Report p. 5 Upcoming Activities p. 6 Bird of the Month p. 7 Club notices p. 8 Club web-site: http://ntfieldnaturalists.org.au/ This photograph, entitled ?Bush Stone-curlew in Hiding?, was Runner-up in the Fauna category 2017 Northern Territory Field Naturalists? Club Wildlife Photograph Competition. Its story is on page 2 in this newsletter. Photo: Janis Otto. FOR THE DIARY November Meeting: Wed 8 Nov, 7.45 pm - "Island Arks" for Conservation of Endangered Species - Chris Jolly November Field Trip: 11-12 Nov - Bio-blitz at Mary River - Diana Lambert - See pages 3 and 4 for m ore det ails - Disclaimer: The views expressed in Nature Territory are not necessarily those of the NT Field Naturalists' Club Inc. or members of its Committee. Field Nat Meetings at New Location! Field Nats monthly meetings are now going to be held at Blue 2.1.51 - still at Charles Darwin University. Study the map below before you venture out on 8 November for our talk with Chris Jolly on "Island Arks" for conservation of Endangered Species. 2017 Northern Territory Field Naturalists? Club Wildlife Photograph Competition Fauna category: Runner-up Janis Otto. Here is the story behind Janis? photograph titled ?Bush Stone-curlew in Hiding? reproduced with her permission on the front cover of this newsletter: ?Although they look quite comical with their gangly gait and outstretched neck when running and flying, Bush Stone-curlews (Burhinus grallarius) actually give me the impression they are quite series creatures. -
Aspects of the Feeding Ecology of Mallard And
ASPECTS OF THE FEEDING ECOLOGY OF MALLARD AND BLACK SWAN IN A SMALL FRESHWATER LAKE Kerry John Potts Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Zoology at the Victoria University of Wellington November 1982 i CONTENTS---------------------------- _ -------- ---------------------------- Page LIST OF FIGURES . v LIST OF TABLES .. .. vii LIST OF PLATES .. viii ABSTRACT .. .. ix GENERAL INTRODUCTION .. .. .. .. X GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA .• .. .. XV A. Physiography, vegetation, drainage, fertility xv B. Waterfowl .. .. .. .. .. xx C. Climate .. .. .. .. .. SECTION 1: GENERAL LIMNOLOGY AND HABITAT EVALUATION WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO (a) THE FACTORS REGULATING THE BALANCE BETWEEN MACROPHYTES AND PHYTOPLANKTON (INCLUDING THE MECHANISMS INVOLVED IN MACROPHYTE DECLINE), AND (b) THE POTENTIAL OF SWAN GRAZING TO STIMULATE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF PHYTOPLANKTON DOMINANCE Ch. 1 INTRODUCTION .. .. .. .. .. 1 C h . 2 METHODS . .. .. .. .. 5 2.1 Bathymetry .. .. .. .. .. 5 2.2 Aerial photography .. .. .. .. 5 2.3 Weather and water levels .. .. .. 5 2.4 Sampling stations and times .. .. 5 2.5 Water chemistry .. .. .. .. 7 2.6 Macrophyte sampling .. .. .. 7 2.6.1 Rake method .. .. .. .. 2.6.2 Trial comparing the efficiencies of the rake and modified Gerking methods to the direct hand cutting method .. 9 (a) Objectives .. .. 9 (b) Methods .. .. 9 (c) Results .. 11 (d) Conclusions .. .. 11 2.7 Zooplankton sampling .. .. 14 2.7.1 Field sampling .. .. 14 2.7.2 Laboratory preparation and counting 14 2.8 Phytoplankton and epiphytic algae sampling 15 2.8.1 Phytoplankton productivity .. 15 2.8.2 Phytoplankton and epiphytic algae identification .. .. 16 2.9 Aquatic invertebrate sampling .. 16 2.9.1 Gastropod - macrophyte relationship 16 2.9.2 General seasonal availability of plant-associated invertebrates 17 VICTORIA U N IVERSITY OF WELLINGTON 11 Page Ch. -
2.9 Waterbirds: Identification, Rehabilitation and Management
Chapter 2.9 — Freshwater birds: identification, rehabilitation and management• 193 2.9 Waterbirds: identification, rehabilitation and management Phil Straw Avifauna Research & Services Australia Abstract All waterbirds and other bird species associated with wetlands, are described including how habitats are used at ephemeral and permanent wetlands in the south east of Australia. Wetland habitat has declined substantially since European settlement. Although no waterbird species have gone extinct as a result some are now listed as endangered. Reedbeds are taken as an example of how wetlands can be managed. Chapter 2.9 — Freshwater birds: identification, rehabilitation and management• 194 Introduction such as farm dams and ponds. In contrast, the Great-crested Grebe is usually associated with large Australia has a unique suite of waterbirds, lakes and deep reservoirs. many of which are endemic to this, the driest inhabited continent on earth, or to the Australasian The legs of grebes are set far back on the body region with Australia being the main stronghold making them very efficient swimmers. They forage for the species. Despite extensive losses of almost completely underwater pursuing fish and wetlands across the continent since European aquatic arthropods such as insects and crustaceans. settlement no extinctions of waterbirds have They are strong fliers but are poor at manoeuvering been recorded from the Australian mainland as in flight and generally prefer to dive underwater a consequence. However, there have been some to escape avian predators or when disturbed by dramatic declines in many populations and several humans. Flights between wetlands, some times species are now listed as threatened including over great distances, are carried out under the cover the Australasian Bittern, Botaurus poiciloptilus of darkness when it is safe from attack by most (nationally endangered). -
Conservation of North Australian Magpie Geese Anseranas
CONSERVATION OF NORTH AUSTRALIAN MAGPIE GEESE ANSERANAS SEMIPALMATA POPULATIONS UNDER GLOBAL CHANGE By Lochran William Traill A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Adelaide October 2009 Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................................... vi 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Ecology of magpie geese ......................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 Habitat and Environment ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2.2 Diet ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Population ecology .................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Conservation status ................................................................................................................................................ 10 2. HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PLANT-HERBIVORE INTERACTIONS? -
Kakadu National Park Management Plan 2007–2014 Akadu Is Aboriginal Kland
Kakadu Board of Management Kakadu National Park MANAGEMENT PLAN 2007–2014 PLAN MANAGEMENT KAKADU NATIONAL PARK MANAGEMENT PLAN 2007–2014 Design Direction Design 3888 Photos Comb-crested Jacana: Michael Nelson Magpie Goose: Greg Miles Orchid: Michael Nelson Termite mound: Michael Nelson Darter: Michael Nelson Lotus flower: Michael Nelson Fire management: Michael Nelson Tourists at Ubirr art site: Michael Nelson Paperbark trees: Michael Nelson Tourists at Ubirr lookout: Peter Wellings West Alligator Head main beach: Greg Miles 4WD at Gunlom Falls: Michael Nelson Artwork Guided walk: Emily Scheibe Ranger at rock art site: Kristina Williams Fire management: Rhiannon Compton Ranger in boat: Justin Giumelli Pandanus and tree: William Suitor Chapter Pages Photos: Ian Oswald-Jacobs Artwork Lotus flowers and birdlife (page 1): Kodi Nadji Water lily leaves on wetland (page 15): Gail Rotumah Crocodile and landscape (page 17): Curtis Yarrbar Park use – featuring Frilled lizard (page 152): Christine Marie Alangate Designed by Design Direction Printed by CanPrint on Monza Satin (100 per cent recycled stock, from plantation timber) Kakadu National Park MANAGEMENT PLAN 2007–2014 © director of national Parks 2007 iSBn: 978 06 42 55 33 94 this work is copyright. apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process, re-used or redistributed without prior written permission from the director of national Parks. any permitted reproduction must acknowledge the source of any such material reproduced and include a copy of the original copyright notice. requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and copyright should be addressed to: the assistant Secretary Parks australia north gPo Box 1260 darwin nt 0801 director of national Parks australian business number: 13051 694 963 this management Plan provides the general public and Park users/visitors with information about how the Park will be managed for the next seven years. -
2017 Tropical Australia Species List
Tropical Australia 2017 Tours Leaders: Eagle Eye Tours Barry Davies and Rob Elvish Common Name Scientific Name Seen/ Heard ANSERIFORMES: Anseranatidae 1 Magpie Goose Anseranas semipalmata s ANSERIFORMES: Anatidae 2 Plumed Whistling-Duck Dendrocygna eytoni s 3 Wandering Whistling-Duck Dendrocygna arcuata s 4 Radjah Shelduck Tadorna radjah s 5 Green Pygmy-Goose Nettapus pulchellus s 6 Pacific Black Duck Anas superciliosa s 7 Gray Teal Anas gracilis s 8 White-eyed Duck Aythya australis s PODICIPEDIFORMES: Podicipedidae 9 Australasian Grebe Tachybaptus novaehollandiae s CICONIIFORMES: Ciconiidae 10 Black-necked Stork Ephippiorhynchus asiaticus s SULIFORMES: Phalacrocoracidae 11 Little Black Cormorant Phalacrocorax sulcirostris s 12 Little Pied Cormorant Phalacrocorax melanoleucos s SULIFORMES: Anhingidae 13 Australasian Darter Anhinga novaehollandiae s PELECANIFORMES: Pelecanidae 14 Australian Pelican Pelecanus conspicillatus s PELECANIFORMES: Ardeidae 15 Pacific Heron Ardea pacifica s 16 Eastern Great Heron Ardea modesta s 17 Intermediate Egret Ardea intermedia s 18 White-faced Heron Egretta novaehollandiae s 19 Little Egret Egretta garzetta s 20 Pied Heron Egretta picata s 21 Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis s 22 Striated Heron Butorides striata s PELECANIFORMES: Threskiornithidae 23 Glossy Ibis Plegadis falcinellus s 24 Australian Ibis Threskiornis moluccus s 25 Straw-necked Ibis Threskiornis spinicollis s 26 Royal Spoonbill Platalea regia s ACCIPITRIFORMES: Accipitridae Page 1 of 7 Tropical Australia 2017 Tours Leaders: Eagle Eye Tours Barry -
Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard Papers in the Biological Sciences 2010 Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World: Index Paul A. Johnsgard University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/biosciducksgeeseswans Part of the Ornithology Commons Johnsgard, Paul A., "Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World: Index" (2010). Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard. 19. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/biosciducksgeeseswans/19 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Papers in the Biological Sciences at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World by Paul A. Johnsgard by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Index The following index is limited to the species of Anatidae; species of other bird families are not indexed, nor are subspecies included. However, vernacular names applied to certain subspecies that sometimes are considered full species are included, as are some generic names that are not utilized in this book but which are still sometimes applied to par ticular species or species groups. Complete indexing is limited to the entries that correspond to the vernacular names utilized in this book; in these cases the primary species account is indicated in italics. Other vernacular or scientific names are indexed to the section of the principal account only. Abyssinian blue-winged goose. See atratus, Cygnus, 31 Bernier teal. See Madagascan teal blue-winged goose atricapilla, Heteronetta, 365 bewickii, Cygnus, 44 acuta, Anas, 233 aucklandica, Anas, 214 Bewick swan, 38, 43, 44-47; PI. -
Risk Assessment of the Black Swan (Cygnus Atratus) in the Netherlands
Risk assessment of the Black swan (Cygnus atratus) in the Netherlands A&W-report 1978 Commissioned by Risk assessment of the Black swan (Cygnus atratus) in the Netherlands A&W-report 1978 N. Beemster E. Klop © Altenburg & Wymenga ecologisch onderzoek bv Overname van gegevens uit dit rapport is toegestaan met bronvermelding. Front page Black swan, drawing from J. Gould (1848) Birds of Australia N. Beemster, E. Klop Risk assessment of the Black swan (Cygnus atratus) in the Netherlands. A&W-report 1978. Altenburg & Wymenga ecologisch onderzoek, Feanwâlden. Commissioned by Nederlandse Voedsel en Warenautoriteit Bureau Risicobeoordeling en onderzoeksprogrammering Postbus 43006 3540AA Utrecht Contractor Altenburg & Wymenga ecologisch onderzoek bv Postbus 32 9269 ZR Feanwâlden Telefoon 0511 47 47 64 Fax 0511 47 27 40 [email protected] www.altwym.nl Projectnummer Projectleider Status 2177 E. Klop Definitief Autorisatie Paraaf Datum Goedgekeurd L.W. Bruinzeel 25-2-2013 Kwaliteitscontrole R.G.M. van der Hut A&W-rapport 1978 Risk assessment of the Black swan (Cygnus atratus) in the Netherlands Contents 1 Introduction 5 2 Ecology and distribution 6 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 Distribution 6 2.3 Habitat 8 2.4 Food 8 2.5 Reproduction and survival 8 3 Risk assessment 10 3.1 Probability of entry 10 3.2 Probability of establishment 10 3.3 Range expansion capacity 16 3.4 Protected areas 16 3.5 Effects of establishment 18 3.6 ISEIA scoring 19 3.7 Summary of the different sections of the risk assesment 21 4 Risk management 22 4.1 Elimination 22 4.2 Control 22 5 References 23 A&W-rapport 1978 Risk assessment of the Black swan (Cygnus atratus) in the Netherlands 1 Samenvatting De Zwarte zwaan Cygnus atratus is een van oorsprong in Australië voorkomende zwanensoort.