Aspects of the Feeding Ecology of Mallard And
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Black Swans, Or the Limits of Statistical Modelling
Black swans, or the limits of statistical modelling Eric Marsden <[email protected]> Do I follow indicators that could tell me when my models may be wrong? On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. 2 / 58 A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. 2 / 58 Things that have never happened before, happen all the time. — Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, ‘‘ Accidents, And Nuclear Weapons, 1993 In risk analysis, these are called “unexampled events” or “outliers” or “black swans”. 3 / 58 The term “black swan” was used in16th century discussions of impossibility (all swans known to Europeans were white). Explorers arriving in Australia discovered a species of swan that is black. The term is now used to refer to events that occur though they had been thought to be impossible. 4 / 58 Black swans ▷ Characteristics of a black swan event: • an outlier • lies outside the realm of regular expectations • nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility • carries an extreme impact ▷ Note that: • in spite of its outlier status, it is often easy to produce an explanation for the event after the fact • a black swan event may be a surprise for some, but not for others; it’s a subjective, knowledge-dependent notion • warnings about the event may have been ignored because of strong personal and organizational resistance to changing beliefs and procedures Source: The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, N. -
Bird Report 1999
YELLOWSTONE BIRD REPORT 1999 Terry McEneaney Yellowstone Center for Resources National Park Service Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming YCR–NR–2000–02 Suggested citation: McEneaney, T. 2000. Yellowstone Bird Report, 1999. National Park Service, Yellowstone Center for Resources, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, YCR–NR–2000–02. Cover: Special thanks to my wife, Karen McEneaney, for the stunning pencil drawing of a Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) talon. The Golden Eagle is one of Yellowstone’s most formidable avian predators. When viewing Golden Eagle talons up close, one soon realizes why the bird is a force to be reckoned with in the natural world. Title page: Great Horned Owlet. The photographs in this report are courtesy of Terry McEneaney. ii CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 5 Bird Impression .............................................................. 20 Weather Patterns and Summary ....................................... 5 National Geographic Field Guide .................................... 21 THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES .............................. 7 Retirement of Yellowstone Pilot Dave Stradley .............. 21 Peregrine Falcon ............................................................... 7 Yellowstone Birds: Their Ecology and Distribution ....... 21 Bald Eagle ........................................................................ 7 Computerized Database ................................................. 21 Whooping Crane ............................................................. -
Air Speeds of Migrating Birds Observed by Ornithodolite and Compared with Predictions from Flight Theory Rsif.Royalsocietypublishing.Org C
Air speeds of migrating birds observed by ornithodolite and compared with predictions from flight theory rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org C. J. Pennycuick1, Susanne A˚kesson2 and Anders Hedenstro¨m2 1School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK 2Department of Biology, Centre for Animal Movement Research, Lund University, Ecology Building, 223 62 Lund, Sweden Research We measured the air speeds of 31 bird species, for which we had body mass Cite this article: Pennycuick CJ, A˚kesson S, and wing measurements, migrating along the east coast of Sweden in Hedenstro¨m A. 2013 Air speeds of migrating autumn, using a Vectronix Vector 21 ornithodolite and a Gill WindSonic anem- ometer. We expected each species’ average air speed to exceed its calculated birds observed by ornithodolite and compared minimum-power speed (Vmp), and to fall below its maximum-range speed with predictions from flight theory. J R Soc (Vmr), but found some exceptions to both limits. To resolve these discrepancies, Interface 10: 20130419. we first reduced the assumed induced power factor for all species from 1.2 to http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2013.0419 0.9, attributing this to splayed and up-turned primary feathers, and then assigned body drag coefficients for different species down to 0.060 for small waders, and up to 0.12 for the mute swan, in the Reynolds number range 25 000–250 000. These results will be used to amend the default values in exist- Received: 8 May 2013 ing software that estimates fuel consumption in migration, energy heights on Accepted: 31 May 2013 arrival and other aspects of flight performance, using classical aeronautical theory. -
Free Download! the Trumpeter Swan
G3647 The Trumpeter Swan by Sumner Matteson, Scott Craven and Donna Compton Snow-white Trumpeter Swans present a truly spectac- Swans of the Midwest ular sight. With a wingspan of more than 7 feet and a rumpeter Swans, along with ducks and geese, belong height of about 4 feet, the Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buc- to the avian Order Anseriformes, Family Anatidae. cinator) ranks as the largest native waterfowl species in T Trumpeters have broad, flat bills with fine tooth-like North America. serrations along the edges which allow them to strain Because the Trumpeter Swan disappeared as a breed- aquatic plants and water. The birds’ long necks and ing bird in the Midwest, several states have launched strong feet allow them to uproot plants in water up to 4 restoration programs to reintroduce it to the region. This feet deep. publication will provide you with background informa- Most Trumpeter Swans weigh 21–30 pounds, tion on the Trumpeter Swan’s status and life history, and although some males exceed the average weight. The on restoration efforts being conducted in the upper male is called a cob; the female is called a pen; and a swan Midwest. in its first year is called a cygnet or juve- nile. The Trumpeter is often con- fused with the far more common Tundra Swan (formerly Whistling Swan, Cygnus columbianus), the only other native swan found routinely in North America. Tundra Swans can be seen in the upper Trumpeter Swan Midwest only during spring and fall migration. You can distinguish between the two native species most accurately by listening to their calls. -
ON 23(4) 555-567.Pdf
ORNITOLOGIA NEOTROPICAL 23: 555–567, 2012 © The Neotropical Ornithological Society REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY AND PAIR BEHAVIOR DURING INCUBATION OF THE BLACK-NECKED SWAN (CYGNUS MELANOCORYPHUS) Carmen Paz Silva1, Roberto Pablo Schlatter2 & Mauricio Soto-Gamboa1 1Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. E-mail: [email protected] 2Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. Resumen. – Biología reproductiva y comportamiento del Cisne de Cuello Negro (Cygnus melano- coryphus). – El cisne de cuello negro (Cygnus melanocoryphus) es la única especie del género Cygnus que habita en Sudamérica. Si bien, el resto de las especies del género han sido extensamente estudia- das, para C. melanocoryphus aún no se ha descrito la mayor parte de su biología reproductiva. En este estudio evaluamos el comienzo y extensión de la temporada reproductiva, y el tamaño de nidada utili- zando datos recolectados en el Santuario Carlos Anwandter (SCA), Valdivia, Chile; correspondientes a 18 temporadas reproductivas. Por otro lado, estudiamos el comportamiento de las parejas durante el periodo de incubación, durante una temporada reproductiva. Se estimó el presupuesto de tiempo y dis- tancia con respecto al nido en seis parejas nidificantes. El periodo de nidificación se puede extender desde junio a enero y está influenciado por el tamaño de la población reproductiva y las condiciones cli- máticas. El tamaño de nidada se mantiene constante con una moda de tres huevos (promedio 3.13 ± 0.017; n = 5897). Ambos miembros de la pareja desarrollan actividades de vigilancia y mantención del nido, sin embargo, la incubación es una tarea exclusiva de la hembra, mientras que la defensa activa del nido es realizada por el macho. -
Mute Swans Make Noise: Lower Great Lakes Population Scrutinized
Mute Swans Make Noise: Lower Great Lakes Population Scrutinized Scott A. Petrie* Introduction and 10 to15 percent per year. At this growth Population Status rate, the southern Ontario population Mute Swans (Cygnus olor), endemic to will double every seven to eight years. Eurasia, were introduced to North Also, given that the lower Great Lakes American city parks, zoos, avicultural includes about 116,000 acres of coastal collections, and estates in the late 1800s wetland habitat, the population could and early 1900s. The intentional releas- potentially reach 30,000 swans. If Mute es and accidental escape of these birds Swans populations increase to the point and their progeny resulted in a rapidly that they begin nesting on inland wet- expanding free-flying feral population lands and man-made waterbodies, as along the northeastern Atlantic Coast of they have in Poland and along the the United States, portions of the Pacific Atlantic Coast of the United States, we Coast, and more recently, much of the could expect that the southern Ontario southern half of the Great Lakes basin. population could even surpass 30,000 It is well known that exotic waterfowl birds. can have negative ecological impacts on The rapid growth rate of southern native species, particularly if the intro- Ontario’s feral Mute Swans can probably duced species is aggressive, competes be attributed to a number of factors. with other waterfowl for food or habi- The lower Great Lakes is climatically tat, and/or hybridizes with native similar to the native Eurasian range of species. Although hybridization is not Mute Swans. -
Breeding Biology of the Magpie Goose
BREEDING BIOLOGY OF THE MAGPIE GOOSE Paul A. Johnsgard Summary A B r e e d in g pair of Magpie Geese was studied at the Wildfowl Trust during one breeding season and part of a second. Nest-building was performed by both sexes and was done in the typical anatid fashion of passing material back over the shoulders. Nests were built on land of sticks and green vegetation. Two copulations were observed, both of which occurred on the nest, and precopulatory as well as postcopulatory behaviour appears to differ greatly from the typical anatid patterns. Eggs were laid at approximate day-and-a-half intervals, and the nest was guarded by both sexes. Incubation was also performed by both sexes, with the male normally sitting during the night. A simple nest-relief ceremony is present. The eggs hatched after 28 to 30 days, and the goslings left the nest the morning after hatching. Unlike all other Anatidae so far studied, the goslings, in addition to foraging independently, are fed directly by their parents and a special whistling begging call associated with a gaping posture is present. It is suggested that the bright bill colouration and unusual cinnamon-coloured heads of downy Magpie Geese are also related to this parental feeding. The parents constructed a “ brood nest ” of herbaceous vegetation that the goslings rested and slept on, which is also unique among the Anatidae. Family bonds are strong, and a rudimentary form of “ triumph ceremony ” is present. Development of the young and moulting sequences of downy, juvenal, and immature plumages are described ; the presence of separate juvenal and immature plumages which are distinct from the adult plumage is apparently unique. -
Wild Discover Zone SWAN LAKE
Wild Discover Zone SWAN LAKE This activity is designed to engage all ages of Zoo visitors. Your duty as an excellent educator, and interpreter is to adjust your approach to fit each group you interact with. Be aware that all groups are on some kind of a time limit. There are no set time requirements for this interaction. Read their behavior and end the interaction when they seem ready to move on. Theme:. It is easy to observe wildlife all around us including our own backyards, parks, and green spaces. Summary: Educators will help visitors observe local wildlife and learn techniques to identify several species of animals on Swan Lake with the help of field guides and technology. Objectives: At the end of the encounter, guests will: Appreciate that wildlife is a part of our communities and accessible to all Use observation skills to compare and contrast field marks on local animals Be able to identify several different species on Swan Lake Engage with technology through the use of binoculars and spotting scope to make observations Location: Cart near Swan Lake between Gibbon Island and Admin Building Materials: Binoculars, spotting scope with tripod, Swan Lake field guides, bird feeder with seed, several hummingbird feeders Background Information: While many visitors consider “wildlife” the exotic animals we have in the Zoo, there is actually native wildlife happening all around us too! One of the most observable types of local wildlife is birds. Correctly identifying birds and other types of plants and animals is possible with a few techniques and tools paired with simple observation. -
Contamination by Chlorinated Hydrocarbons and Lead in Steller's
First Symposium on Steller’s and White-tailed Sea Eagles in East Asia pp. 91-106, 2000 UETA, M. & MCGRADY, M.J. (eds) Wild Bird Society of Japan, Tokyo Japan Contamination by chlorinated hydrocarbons and lead in Steller’s Sea Eagle and White-tailed Sea Eagle from Hokkaido, Japan Hisato IWATA1*, Mafumi WATANABE2, Eun-Young KIM1, Rie GOTOH2, Genta YASUNAGA2, Shinsuke TANABE2, Yasushi MASUDA3 & Shoichi FUJITA1 1. Department of Environmental Veterinary Sciences, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, N18 W9 North Ward, Sapporo, Japan. 2. Department of Environment Conservation, Ehime University, Tarumi 3-5-7, Matsuyama, Japan. 3. Shiretoko Museum, Honmachi 49, Shari, Hokkaido, Japan. Abstract. Chronic exposure to man-made chemicals, particularly chlorinated hydrocarbons, in raptors has been associated with reproductive impairment and population declines. In addition, incidents of sub-lethal and lethal lead poisoning in raptors through ingestion of spent gunshot have been reported. However, little information is available on the contaminant levels of Steller’s Sea Eagle (SSE: Haliaeetus pelagicus) and White-tailed Sea Eagle (WSE: H. albicilla) from Hokkaido, Japan. The objective of this study was to determine the levels of toxic contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides, and lead in sea eagles wintering in Hokkaido, and to evaluate the ecotoxicological risk based on their concentrations. SSEs and WSEs which were found dead or debilitated and subsequently died in Hokkaido from 1986 to 1998 were analysed. All eagles contained detectable amounts of PCBs, DDTs, hexachlorocyclohexane isomers, chlordane related compounds, and hexachlorobenzene. The highest concentrations of PCBs and DDTs in breast muscles were 18,000 and 17,000 ng/g (wet weight), respectively. -
THE FAMILY ANATIDAE 43 Ernst Map
March 1945 42 THE WILSON BULLETIN Vol. 57, No. 1 Biziura L lob&, Australian Musk Duck Aberrant Species Thalassornis leuconota, African White-backed Duck Heteronetta atricapilla, Black-headed Duck 7. TRIBE MERGANETTINI. TORRENTDUCKS Merganetta armuta, Torrent Duck GENERA RECOGNIZEDBY PETERS AND SYNONYMIZEDIHERE Arctonetta= Som&eria Metopiana= Netta Asarcornis = Cairina Nesochen= Branta Casarca = Tadorna Nesonetta= Anus Chaulelasmus= Anas Nomonyx = Oxyura Chen = Anser Nyroca= Aythya Cheniscus= Nettapus Oidemia = Melanitta Chenopis= Cygnus Phil&e= Anser Cygnopsis= Anser Polysticta= Somateria Dendronessa= Aix Pseudotadorna= Tadorna Eulabeia= Anser Pteronetta= Cairina Lophodytes= Mergus Salvadorina= Anus Mareca= Anas Spatula= Anas Mergellus = Mergus GENERA RECOGNIZEDHERE BUT NOT BY PETERS Amazonetta von Boetticher (for Anus brasiliensis) Lophonetta Riley (for Anus specularioides) COMPARISONOP CHARACTERS Our studies have shown that the waterfowl can be divided into about nine groups that are fairly well defined both morphologically and biologically. In addition, there are a number of species and genera that are either intermediate between the otherwise well- defined tribes (e.g. Coscoroba) or too poorly known for a safe classi- fication (e.g. Anus specularis, Anus leucophrys, Malacorhynchus, Tachyeres) ; others show peculiarities or a combination of characters that prevent them from fitting well into any of the existing groups. Such genera as the Australian Cereopsis, Anseranas, Stictonetta, and Chenonetta could either be made the sole representatives of so many separate tribes or each could be included in the tribe with which it shares the greatest number of similarities. For the sake of con- venience we have adopted the latter course, but without forgetting that these genera are not typical representatives of the tribes with which we associate them. -
Mute Swan (Cygnus Olor) ERSS
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) Ecological Risk Screening Summary U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, February 2011 Revised, November 2018, March 2019 Web Version, 8/16/2019 Photo: Nolasco Diaz. Licensed under CC BY-SA. Available: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cisne_por_la_noche.jpg. (11/28/2018). 1 Native Range and Status in the United States Native Range According to GISD (2018), Cygnus olor is native to Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Europe, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Korea, Democratic People's Republic Of Korea, Republic Of Latvia, Lithuania, Republic Of Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia And Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. 1 From BirdLife International (2018): “NATIVE Extant (breeding) Kazakhstan; Mongolia; Russian Federation (Eastern Asian Russia); Turkmenistan Extant (non-breeding) Afghanistan; Armenia; Cyprus; Iran, Islamic Republic of; Iraq; Korea, Republic of; Kyrgyzstan; Spain Extant (passage) Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Extant (resident) Albania; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Belgium; Croatia; Czech Republic; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Liechtenstein; Luxembourg; Macedonia, the former Yugoslav Republic of; Montenegro; Netherlands; Russian Federation; Serbia; Slovenia; Switzerland; Turkey; United Kingdom Extant Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; China; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; -
Cereopsis (Cape Barren Geese)
Cereopsis Geese by Terry Smith Reprinted from the September-October, 2017 issue of Heartand News, the Newletter of Heart of America Game Breeders’ Association Cereopsis or Cape Barren Geese, which are native to the uninhabited, wind-swept islands lying off the southern coast of Australia and the southern coast of that continent, are popular with breeders who do not have a bpond or lake because the geese do not need a lot of water in which to breed. In the wild, they only enter the water if injured or to escape from being attacked. Today the birds are protected by the Australian government, but they were formerly persecuted because their grazing reduced the amount of vegetation available for sheep. The birds were first introduced into captivity in 1831 when a pair was given to the King of England who kept them at Windsor Castle where they were bred. In the past, few Americans were unable to raise young Cereopsis because they were inbred In the mid 1970’s, the American Game Breeders’ Federation and the Game Bird Research and Preservation Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, imported wild-caught goslings. Those imported birds started reproducing in 1980 when they were three years old. Today a breeder who buys a pair of Cape Barren Geese is more likely to raise some young because of the efforts of these two groups to introduce some different bloodlines to the birds in captivity in North America. Among ornithologists, there are disagreements as to how to classify the species. Jean Delacour, the great French ornithologist, classified them as sheldgeese, but other ornithologists, notably Paul A.