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Etude De Potentiel Pv Au Maroc

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Etude De Potentiel Pv Au Maroc Étude du potentiel de développement de l’énergie photovoltaïque dans les régions de Meknès-Tafilalet, Oriental et Souss-Massa-Drâa pour la Coopération maroco-allemande Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Version actualisée Novembre 2011 Etude de potentiel régionale pour le développement de la photovoltaïque pour les régions de Meknès Tafilalet, Oriental et Souss-Massa-Drâa Réalisée pour la Coopération maroco-allemande: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Projet: Promotion des Energies Renouvelables et de l'Efficacité Energétique pour un Développement durable au Maroc (PEREN) Projet N° : 06.2167.2 Avec le partenaire „Agence Nationale pour le Développement des Energies Renouvelables et de l’Efficacité Energétique » Auteure: Judith Jäger, Géo-écologue, Consultante Traduction : Hélène Carrasco-Nabih, Trad. Dipl. (ISIT) sous la supervision de Dipl.-Ing. Dieter Uh, Conseiller Technique Principal du Projet PEREN Avertissement: 1. Toutes les données, chiffres et résultats avancés dans la présente étude ont été élaborés et vérifiés avec le plus grand soin par l’auteure. Elle peut cependant contenir certaines erreurs. En conséquence, la GIZ et l’auteure se dégagent de leurs responsabilités quant à toutes plaintes, pertes ou dommages résultant directement ou indirectement de l’utilisation ou de l’exploitation des informations contenues dans cette étude, ou résultant directement ou indirectement de toutes fautes, imprécisions ou omissions parmi les informations contenues dans cette étude. 2. Toute duplication ou reproduction de tout ou partie de la présente étude (y compris la transmission sur support de données) et toute distribution à des fins non commerciales sont autorisées sous réserve de mentionner la GIZ comme source. Toutes autres utilisations, incluant la reproduction et la distribution de tout ou partie de la présente étude à des fins commerciales, nécessitent l’autorisation écrite de la GIZ. Aussi nous demandons aux lecteurs de faire parvenir à la GIZ toutes suggestions, indications complémentaires et corrections. Merci de vous adresser à: [email protected]. © GIZ GmbH, Eschborn/Bonn, Mars et Novembre 2011 Avant-propos Le projet « Promotion des Energies Renouvelables et de l‘Efficacité Energétique » travaille depuis début 2008 dans le cadre de la coopération au développement maroco-allemande en partenariat avec le « Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables (CDER) » (désormais „Agence Nationale pour le Développement des Energies Renouvelables et de l’Efficacité Energétique » (ADEREE) pour analyser en détails les potentiels en énergies renouvelables dans trois régions sélectionnées (Oriental, Meknès-Tafilalet et Souss-Massa-Draâ). Les recherches ont pour objectif de fournir aux acteurs locaux et régionaux des informations sur les projets intéressants et économiquement réalisables en matière d’énergies renouvelables et d’efficacité énergétique et de mettre en évidence leurs possibilités d’exploitation pratique. La présente étude s’inscrit dans cette perspective; sous un angle nouveau, inhabituel, elle explore les possibilités de réévaluer l’option photovoltaïque réputée „chère“ dans un pays émergent selon différentes considérations économiques. Elle s’éloigne des modèles de pensée habituels relatifs au „tarif de rachat garanti“ largement adopté ces dernières décennies dans le monde et constate, de façon assez surprenante, que le développement énorme de la photovoltaïque sur les marchés internationaux ces dernières années, et la baisse correspondante des prix des systèmes photovoltaiques (PV), ouvrent de nouvelles possibilités – notamment selon un mode d’utilisation fortement décentralisé, mais connecté au réseau. Moi personnellement - après lecture de cette étude - j’ai l’impression qu’une transformation fondamentale des systèmes de production d’électricité s’annonce pour les vingt prochaines années: vu la spécificité de la PV, technologie électronique et modulaire, la fiabilité de cette technologie et la confiance des investisseurs sur les marchés mondiaux, la PV atteindra à partir de 2015/2020 - grâce au progrès technologique et à l’augmentation de la production mondiale - la compétitivité économique avec la production d’électricité à partir des énergies fossiles et nucléaires. D’autre part, la PV nécessite un système complémentaire, que soit de stockage ou de réglage de production: un défi majeur pour la recherche pendant la prochaine décennie. Mais même dans ce domaine, le Maroc dispose d’un atout : la topologie du pays lui permet la construction de STEP supplémentaires pour le stockage… Face aux contradictions de la langue francaise, il faut noter que mes collaboratrices ont décidé que la technologie photovoltaique devrait être féminine : la photovoltaique. Facteur de réussite ? Je l’espère… Dipl.-Ing. Dieter Uh Conseiller Technique Principal du projet PEREN SOMMAIRE 1 SOMMAIRE Sommaire ................................................................................................................................................. I Tables des Illustrations ............................................................................................................................ V Liste des Tableaux ................................................................................................................................ VIII Table des Abbréviations ......................................................................................................................... IX Résumé de l’étude .................................................................................................................................. XI 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Photovoltaïque – Apercu des technologies ..................................................................................... 3 2.1 Technologie mono- et polycristalline ...................................................................................... 3 2.2 Technologies des couches minces ........................................................................................... 4 2.3 Cellules solaires à colorant ...................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Cellules solaires organiques .................................................................................................... 5 2.5 Cellules solaires de types III-V ................................................................................................. 5 2.6 Cellules solaires multi-jonctions .............................................................................................. 6 2.7 Systèmes à concentration ....................................................................................................... 6 2.8 Technique systèmique photovoltaïque ................................................................................... 7 3 Potentiels – Définitions, études préalables et méthodes ............................................................. 10 3.1 Définitions de potentiels dans la littérature spécialisée ....................................................... 10 3.2 Détermination des potentiels à l’aide de modèles urbains digitalisés ................................. 11 3.3 Détermination des données sur la surface de toiture pour la photovoltaïque en fonction du PIB ............................................................................................................................................... 13 3.4 Détermination de potentiels selon l’étude de la GTZ ........................................................... 14 3.4.1 Potentiel d’espaces libres selon l’étude de la GTZ ........................................................ 15 3.4.2 Potentiel de surfaces de toiture selon l’étude de la GTZ .............................................. 15 3.5 Discussion sur les pistes de réflexion proposées .................................................................. 16 4 Potentiels par „approche selon les besoins“ ................................................................................. 17 4.1 Potentiels pour applications isolées ...................................................................................... 19 4.1.1 Potentiel technique des applications isolées ................................................................ 20 4.1.2 Potentiel économique des applications isolées ............................................................ 20 4.2 Potentiels connectés au réseau ............................................................................................ 21 4.2.1 Potentiel technique des applications connectées au réseau ........................................ 21 2 ETUDE DE POTENTIEL PV AU MAROC 4.2.1.1 Calculs de rendements .............................................................................................. 22 4.2.1.2 Disponibilité des surfaces à prendre en compte pour le potentiel technique .......... 24 4.2.2 Potentiel économique des applications connectées au réseau .................................... 28 4.2.2.1 Tarifs de l‘ONE ........................................................................................................... 28 4.2.2.2 Tarifs et prix effectifs d’achat de l’électricité en basse tension ................................ 29 4.2.2.3 Prix d’achat de l’électricité en moyenne tension ...................................................... 31 4.2.2.4 Approches
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