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3.3 the FAA AWRP TURBULENCE PDT R. Sharman*, L. Cornman, J

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3.3 the FAA AWRP TURBULENCE PDT R. Sharman*, L. Cornman, J 3.3 THE FAA AWRP TURBULENCE PDT R. Sharman*, L. Cornman, J. Williams National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307 S. Koch, W. Moninger NOAA/ Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO, 80305 ABSTRACT The actual numbers are probably higher: one major carrier reported almost 400 injury-causing Commercial and general aviation aircraft continue turbulence encounters over a 3 year period; to encounter unexpected turbulence that requires another estimated about 200 turbulence related immediate changes to flight paths or is hazardous customer injury claims per year. to the aircraft and passengers. This is due in part A side effect to turbulence encounters is the to the fact that current aviation-scale turbulence perception by the public that air transportation is observations are inadequate and forecasts are not unsafe. Indeed, the number of pilot- accurate enough to predict the location, time and reported/recorded encounters with turbulence is intensity of turbulence. The FAA AWRP substantial: moderate-or-greater pilot reports Turbulence Product Development Team (TPDT) (PIREPs) averaging about 65,000/year, and addresses the turbulence under-measurement severe-or-greater PIREPs averaging about problem by researching, developing, and 5,500/year. For these reasons, more often than implementing new technologies for routine not, pilots will try to avoid or exit turbulent air, so observations of turbulence (in situ and remote). It turbulence also significantly impacts NAS also researches and develops turbulence (National Airspace) efficiency and controller forecasting techniques that are aimed at providing workload. operational forecasts of turbulence for the aviation In order to help reduce the number of community. This paper describes these three turbulence encounters and their impact on the major work areas (in situ measurements, remote NAS, the FAA Aviation Weather Research detection, and turbulence forecasting) for the Program (AWRP) sponsored Turbulence Product Turbulence PDT. Development Team (TPDT) is working towards improving the detection and forecasting of 1. Introduction turbulence, and providing operationally useful products directly to the users. The majority of the Encounters with turbulence for commercial work has been done by the National Center for (Part 121/129), air taxi (Part 135) and general Atmospheric Research/Research Applications aviation (GA, Part 91) aircraft pose significant Laboratory (NCAR/RAL) and the NOAA/ Earth safety, efficiency and workload issues. According System Research Laboratory/Global Systems to a recent MCR Federal survey of NTSB accident Division (ESRL/GSD, formally Forecast Systems data for the years 1983-1997 (Eichenbaum, 1999), Laboratory or FSL). Specifically, the TPDT has turbulence contributed to 664 accidents leading to been focusing on three work areas: (1) providing 609 fatalities (mostly GA), 239 serious and 584 in situ measurement and reporting of turbulence minor injuries, for an estimated average annual from commercial aircraft, and (2) the detection of societal cost of $134 M. Although fatalities related in-cloud turbulence from the WSR-88D radar to commercial airline turbulence encounters are network, and (3) developing an automated almost nil (only one in this time period), turbulence turbulence forecasting system, (Graphical encounters do account for a significant fraction Turbulence Guidance or GTG). The research and (about 70%) of all weather related Part 121 development activities associated with each of incidents. The average number of air carrier these tasks will be addressed in separate sections turbulence-related injuries according to the NTSB below. records is about 45 per year, but these are of course only those that are reported to the NTSB. 2. In situ detection of turbulence ________________________________________ * Corresponding author address: Dr. Robert Under the sponsorship of the FAA AWRP, Sharman, National Center for Atmospheric work was begun in the early 1990’s at the Research, Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR/RAL to develop and deploy an in situ Boulder,CO 80307; email: [email protected] turbulence measurement and reporting system for EDR reports in the development and verification of commercial aircraft. The concept was to use radar- and model-based turbulence products. existing sensors, avionics and communication networks to produce and disseminate a state-of- 2.1 Verification Activities the-atmosphere turbulence metric – the eddy dissipation rate (viz., ε 1/3 , hereafter EDR). These The algorithm that has been implemented on data would then be used by a variety of users for the United Airlines aircraft is based on operational and scientific purposes. Operational accelerometer data. Improvements to this first- users include pilots, airline dispatch and generation accelerometer-based version exist, meteorology personnel, aviation forecasters, and (including better aircraft response data, band-pass air-traffic personnel. Furthermore, these data filtering and quality control processing), but have would also be used by the turbulence research not been deployed. In fact, it is assumed that all and development community for building and future implementations will be based on the improving turbulence detection, nowcast and vertical wind, maximum-likelihood algorithm. forecast products. Nevertheless, these accelerometer-based EDR The EDR reports are intended to augment the data give a good idea as to the benefits of the existing turbulence pilot reporting data. As is well- turbulence reporting concept. known, these pilot reports are subjective The EDR reports from the United Airlines measures of the aircraft’s response to the deployment are undergoing verification by a turbulence, as opposed to quantitative, state-of- comparison to pilot reports of turbulence as well the-atmosphere measurements. Furthermore, pilot as occasional passenger reports. Figure 2, Figure reports are sporadic in space and time, and very 1, and Figure 4 show a spatial series of EDR few null reports are made. The EDR reporting reports for portions of three different flights. These system was designed to address many of the cases were chosen because there was a pilot deficiencies with pilot reports. That is, to provide report of turbulence from the specific flight. There routine and quantitative measurements of are two locations indicated for the pilot reports: the atmospheric turbulence intensity levels – including red circle shows the location along the flight track null reports. It should be noted that to save at the time given in the pilot report; whereas, the communications costs, some aircraft may be black dot indicates the aircraft location given in the configured to generate EDR reports on an “event- pilot report. Note that these two locations do not driven,” as opposed to routine basis. always match. The actual flight track is indicated Two principal algorithms have been developed by the color-coded (by altitude) diamonds and the to measure the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) from two parallel tracks are the median and 95% 1/3 on-board data. The first method uses vertical ε values, (color code in the upper right). The accelerations and a mathematical model of the arrow gives the direction of the flight track. aircraft response to turbulence in order to estimate In Figure 2, a reasonably good match is seen EDR values, whereas the second method uses a between the pilot report (“light-to-moderate”) and calculation of the vertical wind component. the ε 1/3 report (0.25). There is a discrepancy Starting in 1997, the implementation of the first- between the locations of the encounter as given generation accelerometer-based EDR algorithm by the time in the pilot report versus the location was begun on United Airlines aircraft. A total of given in the pilot report. In analyzing these data, it 199 aircraft, B737s and 757s, currently have the has been seen that this type of divergence occurs algorithm installed; however, due to transmission relatively often. Figure 1 illustrates a case where cost concerns, only the 757s are currently there is a difference between the pilot report providing routine EDR reports. Starting in 2006, 1/3 the wind-based algorithm will be installed on 160 (“light’) and the ε report (0.05). Without further aircraft from Delta airlines and 400 aircraft from information, this discrepancy cannot be resolved. Southwest Airlines. In the following sections, a However, it should be noted that since the sampling of the current activities associated with ε 1/3 values are binned in increments of 0.1, an the United Airlines deployment is discussed, 1/3 including verification efforts and the use of the ε value that lies between zero and 0.1 would be reported as 0.05, and this could be a source of the An automated quality control algorithm for the difference. In future implementations, it is in situ reports has been developed and envisioned that a finer resolution, at least at the implemented. These reports are now on an lower EDR values, might be employed. Finally, Experimental ADDS website, and are used by Figure 4 illustrates a more extreme example of the meteorologists and dispatchers at United Airlines. problem mentioned above regarding the positional (see Figure 6). inaccuracies in the pilot reports. The pilot report shown in this figure is from the same flight as the 3. Remote sensing of turbulence. EDR reports. Nevertheless, the location of the aircraft given in the pilot report is over 100 km While the clear-air turbulence
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