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Growth Commission Report

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Growth Commission Report Crossrail 2 Delivering Growth in London and the South East report by the Crossrail 2 Growth Commission 1 Foreword By Sir Merrick Cockell The Growth Commission has explored a wide range of issues associated with the planning and delivery of the scheme. We have tried to learn from past infrastructure schemes that have been primarily transport-led. We are extremely grateful to all those who have taken the time to meet with us and contribute to our work. This report has used this evidence to arrive at its key findings and to make a series of recommendations to ensure that Crossrail 2 can deliver this potential. We believe that Crossrail 2’s projections for job and housing growth are eminently achievable, and indeed that the scheme could help deliver substantially larger targets. To achieve that, though, policymakers need to grapple with several core issues around land use planning, density of development and how new housing is delivered in tandem with the railway. The National Infrastructure Commission’s report and Crossrail 2 is an essential new infrastructure the Government’s response earlier this year gave strong project for London and the South East. But it support to Crossrail 2. As a result, development work is now forging ahead, with a Hybrid Bill to seek powers is much more than simply a new railway. As expected in Parliament in 2019. This is enormously well as transforming connectivity and journey positive news. However, our work shows that there is times, growth is at the heart of the project. still much for many stakeholders to do in order that we deliver real growth. We hope that they now do so that Crossrail 2 offers unrivalled potential to boost the full potential of this nationally significant scheme is job growth and housing across the region. It realised. will have an impact from the Solent to the Wash. How that potential is to be maximised Sir Merrick Cockell and fully realised was the central focus of the Crossrail 2 Growth Commission’s work. 2 Members of the Commission Sir Merrick Cockell Chairman of the Growth Commission. Previously worked in local government roles since 1986 and is the Chairman of the UK Municipal Bonds Agency plc Daniel Moylan Deputy Chair of the Growth Commission, Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea Councillor, Queen’s Gate Ward Greg Clark Chair of London Stansted Cambridge Consortium and member of the London Enterprise Panel Geoff French Chair of the Enterprise M3 Local Enterprise Partnership and Past President of the Institution of Civil Engineers Baroness Jo Valentine Chief Executive of London First, a strategic organisation representing businesses across the Capital, and a trustee of the housing association the Peabody Trust Richard Blakeway Former Deputy Mayor for Housing, Land and Property, housing advisor to No 10 Bob Neill MP for Bromley and Chislehurst and former Shadow Local Government minister Chris Duffield Former Chief Executive of the City of London and the London Borough of Bexley Nick de Bois Former MP for Enfield North Richard Akers Chartered Surveyor and Non-Executive Director of Barratt Developments PLC. Formerly an Executive Director of Land Securities PLC Nick Raynsford Former Labour MP for Woolwich and housing and London minister This report was prepared by the commissioners based on work done before 30 April 2016, while still under contract with the Commission. 3 Contents Foreword 2 Members of the Commission 3 Contents 4 1 Executive Summary 6 1.1 The role of the Growth Commission 7 1.2 Are Crossrail 2’s core growth assumptions plausible? 8 1.3 Realising Crossrail 2’s potential: tackling the barriers to growth 10 1.4 Making sure Crossrail 2 delivers growth 12 1.5 What happens next? 13 2 Introduction 14 2.1 Context for this report 15 2.2 The Role of the Crossrail 2 Growth Commission 18 2.3 The Aims of this Report 23 3 An evaluation of Crossrail 2’s Growth Assumptions 24 3.1 Summary of the Growth Commission’s view on TfL’s work to date 25 3.2 The method used to assess Crossrail 2’s growth impact 26 3.3 Where is the housing growth potential? 28 3.4 When will growth happen? 30 3.5 Review of growth assumptions 32 4 4 The big issues 34 4.1 The challenge of accommodating growth locally 36 4.2 Remodelling industrial and employment land 37 4.3 Accommodating growth: how to create places where people want to live and work 41 4.4 The role of the Green Belt 46 4.5 Extending the scheme beyond its current termini 50 4.6 Realising the growth potential along different route options 52 4.7 Is further growth possible as a result of impacts on the wider transport network? 54 5 Exploring opportunities for new employment centres 55 6 Delivery mechanisms 58 6.1 Preparing for delivery: securing long-term buy-in 60 6.2 Enabling growth through existing planning mechanisms 61 6.3 Supporting infrastructure 62 6.4 Land assembly 63 6.5 Delivering growth by establishing new special growth vehicles 64 6.6 Addressing the funding challenge 68 6.7 Next steps 69 7 Appendices 70 5 1. Executive Summary 6 1.1 The role of the Growth Commission The Crossrail 2 Growth Commission was set up The principal aim of the Commission was to identify by the Mayor of London in July 2015 to examine the extent to which land along the Crossrail 2 route the scheme’s economic growth potential. has unrealised potential and would be able, with the The Commissioners had experience across local new railway, to contribute to the growth of London, government, business and the development industry. the South East and the UK as a whole. Key to the case for Crossrail 2 is TfL’s assumption that The Commission set out to evaluate the Crossrail 2 the scheme will enable and support the development project’s predictions for growth, and to consider how of 200,000 homes and 200,000 jobs by 2060, these might be realised or exceeded. The Commission over and above those already identified for London was also tasked with identifying mechanisms for and the wider South East. successfully delivering and enabling the development of homes. 7 1.2 Are Crossrail 2’s core growth assumptions plausible? TfL’s assessment of the additional growth that could The Commision has concluded that all of these be generated by Crossrail 2 covers the period to assumptions are plausible, and that TfL’s assessment 2060, applying a bottom-up approach to a set of to date that Crossrail 2 could unlock 200,000 new growth assumptions associated with the delivery homes and support 200,000 new jobs is credible. of the new railway and network-wide service improvements. Mega transport infrastructure projects such as Crossrail 2 can act as powerful catalysts for change, The Commission has tested TfL’s work, starting helping to overcome strategic and local constraints with an interrogation of the central assumptions to growth. Crossrail 2 provides an unprecedented underpinning those figures. These can be summarised opportunity to address these challenges in London and as follows: the South East. The Commission also found that by implementing enabling mechanisms early, Crossrail 2 • There is a functional requirement for London and could have significant benefits in expediting the its central activities zone (CAZ) to grow, and that delivery of housing ahead of the railway opening. this needs to be supported through an increase in housing. Recommendation 1: TfL’s assessment of • Crossrail 2 can overcome barriers to continued job 200,000 new homes and jobs is credible. growth in the CAZ and supporting employment But policy changes will need to be made to realise across the route. benefits on this scale. Such changes should be proactively considered in the forthcoming review • Crossrail 2 will help realise benefits away from its of the London Plan and reviews of other planning route around feeder stations and along connecting frameworks and local plans for the South East. corridors. • Additional unidentified development capacity exists across the Crossrail 2 route. • There is a need to review existing planning frameworks along the route to maximise Crossrail 2’s benefits, and there is a willingness to consider this. • Additional development capacity across the route can be fully unlocked only by Crossrail 2. 8 Figure 1: A summary of the different ways in which Crossrail 2 could stimulate growth 2 3 1 4 CROSSRAIL 2 STATION 6 5 Crossrail 2 will improve transport connectivity, accessibility and legibility. This will allow: 1. A widened property market connecting and opening 5. Improved employment opportunities as a result of: up new areas for growth • Larger labour markets • Shorter travel times 2. More development to be viable, overcoming barriers • Greater clustering / agglomeration to growth 6. Improved market confidence, creating more attractive 3. Development could take place at higher densities conditions for private sector investment 4. Proactive public sector interventions, capitalising on benefits and enhancing quality of life 9 1.3 Realising Crossrail 2’s potential: tackling the barriers to growth A number of significant challenges need to be Development densities are guided by the London overcome to deliver Crossrail 2’s full growth potential Plan: its forthcoming review provides a unique inside and outside of London. TfL’s assessment relies opportunity to rethink planning policy, both in terms on further land being available for development. of the classification of areas as suburban, urban or The Commission has considered the key planning central, as well as the density ranges within each policy, political and funding barriers that might risk category. Higher-density development can be delivering the housing growth.
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