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Bank of Uganda ISSN 1991-766X BBAANNKK OOFF UUGGAANNDDAA QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT Q3 2010 December 2010 www.bou.or.ug 1 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 4 2 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ................................................................................................. 4 2.1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH ..................................................................................... 4 2.2 GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS .................................................................................... 6 2.3 CONSUMER PRICES ........................................................................................................... 7 2.4 COMMODITY MARKETS ................................................................................................... 8 2.5 OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................... 8 2.6 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DOMESTIC MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ................. 9 3 MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2010 ......................................................................................................................... 10 4 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ................................. 11 4.1 BASE MONEY ..................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 MONEY SUPPLY ................................................................................................................ 11 4.3 THE MONEY MARKET ..................................................................................................... 12 4.4 COMMERCIAL BANKS .................................................................................................... 15 4.4.1 COMMERCIAL BANKS CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR .................................. 16 4.4.2 COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT LIABILITIES ......................................................... 17 4.5 CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (CIs) .......................................................................................... 18 4.5.1 ASSETS ................................................................................................................................. 18 4.5.2 COMPOSITION OF PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT ......................................................... 18 4.5.3 COMPOSITION OF THE LIQUID ASSETS OF CIs ....................................................... 19 4.5.4 DEPOSIT LIABILITIES ....................................................................................................... 19 4.6 MICROFINANCE DEPOSIT TAKING INSTITUTIONS (MDIS) ................................ 20 4.6.1 ASSETS ................................................................................................................................. 20 4.6.2 DEPOSIT LIABILITIES ....................................................................................................... 21 4.7 UGANDA’S EQUITY MARKET ....................................................................................... 21 5 DOMESTIC PRICES............................................................................................................ 23 5.1 CONSUMER PRICES ......................................................................................................... 23 5.2 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) ..................................................................................... 24 6 EXCHANGE RATES AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .............................................. 25 6.1 EXCHANGE RATES........................................................................................................... 25 6.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .............................................................................................. 26 7 MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK ................................................................................... 29 2 ABBREVIATIONS BAT British American Tobacco BOBU Bank of Baroda Uganda BOU Bank of Uganda CDS Central Depository System CIs Credit Institutions CPI Consumer Price Index EBL Equity Bank Limited ECB European Central Bank EFU Energy Fuel and Utilities EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product HICP Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices HRA Horizontal Repurchase Agreement ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade IFEM Interbank Foreign Exchange Market IMF International Monetary Fund MDIs Micro Deposit taking Institutions NCG Net Claims on Government NDA Net Domestic Assets NEER Nominal Effective Exchange Rate NFA Net Foreign Assets NIC National Insurance Corporation NVL New Vision Limited OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPI Producer Price Index PPI-M Producer Price Index for Manufacturing PSC Private Sector Credit REER Real Effective Exchange Rate REPO Repurchase Agreement RMP Reserve Money Program SBU Stanbic Bank Uganda UCL Uganda Clays Limited UK United Kingdom USA United States of America USE Uganda Securities Exchange VAT Value Added Tax WEO World Economic Outlook 3 1 INTRODUCTION This report presents the economic developments and monetary policy operations in the quarter to September 2010 relative to the quarter ended June 2010. Specifically, the report reviews developments in the global economy in view of the implications for the Ugandan economy. In addition, it discusses the relative performance in the external, monetary and financial sectors and points out the monetary policy stance and actions that the Bank of Uganda (BOU) pursued during the quarter. The report also presents the policy outlook for the near-term. 2 THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2.1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH The global economy continued to grow in the quarter to September 2010 albeit at a slower pace due to diminishing support from the inventory cycle and policy stimuli. In the emerging world, a strong recovery continued, particularly in emerging Asia and parts of Latin America. Across the developed world as a whole, a gradual and somewhat lacklustre recovery continued, with central banks keeping interest rates at record low levels. However, uncertainty gripped markets about the sustainability of growth in the world’s three biggest markets: the United States, Europe, and China. In the United States, growth was disappointing and unemployment remained persistently high. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis and the policy response conspired to alarm markets. Finally, China’s tightening of monetary policy and efforts to cool an overheated property market raised concerns that growth would slow. In the United States (U.S.), recovery in economic activity appeared to stabilize in the quarter to September 2010. Annualized quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 2.0 percent for the third quarter of 2010, up from 1.7 percent for the previous quarter, mainly driven by manufacturing and rebuilding of inventory levels following the sharp cutbacks at the time of the global financial crisis, and by fiscal stimulus programmes in the form of cash-for- clunkers and tax rebates for home buyers in addition to monetary easing. However, domestic final demand remained softer than GDP because the spending by US households and by financial businesses was constrained by their need to set aside funds for debt repayment and balance sheet repair. Inflation remained very low and enabled the Federal 4 funds rate to be held at 0-0.25 percent level for a prolonged period while the private sector recuperates. In the euro-zone, growth slowed sharply to 0.4 percent in the quarter to September 2010 from 1.0 percent in the previous quarter. The crisis of confidence in the sovereign debt markets of some of the economies significantly eroded the outlook for euro-zone recovery. The growth observed was supported by continued improvement in external demand for the exports from core economies, particularly Germany. Exports increased at a stronger pace supported by demand from Asia. The fundamental nature of the euro-zone’s problems- stemming from the divergent characteristics of the members of the monetary union, from the impossibility of unilateral currency adjustments to promote export-led growth, and from consequent difficulty in restoring competitiveness and sound public finances in peripheral countries- are projected to delay recovery and could cause the global crisis to rumble on for several months. Persistent high unemployment in much of the euro area, and financial deleveraging by indebted households and businesses suggested that the overall money and credit growth would remain weak, subsequently dragging on domestic demand. Nevertheless, substantial economic slack could keep inflation low implying that ECB could maintain a very accommodative monetary policy. The Japan’s recovery continued to be weak. Japan's economy grew by an annualised rate of 4.5 percent between July and September 2010. This growth was attributed to one-off factors, such as sales of green cars before the end of government subsidies and smokers buying cigarettes before a tax rise. The economic outlook in Japan remained cloudy due to a decline in demand in the US, Europe and China which hit exports that were already under pressure from the high value of the yen. Japan has also suffered 20 straight months of deflation, which is likely to stifle economic growth by undermining consumer demand. Economic growth in emerging Asia remained robust during the period under review but with signs of moderation compared to the previous quarter reflecting a slowdown in external demand and the withdrawal of the stimulus package by some countries. The Chinese
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