Proceedings of the Th 19 International Conference
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Proceedings of the th 19 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 23-27 July 2001 Atlanta, Georgia USA Edited by: James H. Hines Vedat G. Diker Robin S. Langer Jennifer I. Rowe ©2001, The System Dynamics Society ISBN 0-9672914-4-5 To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research conferences, contact: Roberta L. Spencer System Dynamics Society Milne 300 - Rockefeller College University at Albany, State University of New York 135 Western Avenue Albany, New York 12222, United States of America Phone: + 1.518.442.3865 Fax: + 1.518.443.3398 Email: [email protected] Website: www.systemdynamics.org Navigating the Conference Proceedings or portability and ease of use, we are distributing the electronic version of the 2001 F System Dynamics Conference Proceedings in Adobe Acrobat (PDF) format. We highly recommend for you to download the latest version of Acrobat Reader, as the navigating tools described below work best with the latest version. You can download this software for free from http://www.adobe.com/acrobat/. These instructions will help you: · Use the general tools of Acrobat to explore the Proceedings · Navigate the Proceedings using bookmarks · Find authors, abstracts, and papers. If you are familiar with Acrobat Reader, you will recognize the common navigational features, including Bookmarks, hot links, and menu icons. If you are unfamiliar with Acrobat, you may want to print this page for reference. (For information about printing, see the section “Print a PDF Document” below.) Using general tools Page tool The built-in Page Tool (figure 1) allows easy navigation within multi-page PDF documents. Go back one page Go forward one page Go to the first page Go to the last page Figure 1. The built-in Page Tool lets you move between and across pages. Browsing Arrows The built-in Browser Arrows (figure 2) allow you to move through Acrobat in much the same way that an Internet browser allows you to surf the web: · The back arrow returns you to the page you visited last · The forward arrow reverses the action of the back arrow (and thus only works if you have used the back arrow) Return to the page Move forward (works you just visited only if you’ve used the back button) Figure 2. The Browsing Arrows give you greater flexibility to explore the Proceedings. Printing You can print a PDF document in two ways: · Use the Print icon on the Acrobat tool bar. · Select File > Print Note: both of these actions will display the print dialog box with your default printer set to print. You can then set any specific options necessary to printing. Links and buttons Links and buttons allow you to easily search and access the Proceedings. Links take you from the Author Index to a particular abstract, and from an abstract to a particular paper. Any text or image surrounded by a blue rectangle (figure 3). All links are surrounded by a blue rectangle. Figure 3. A sample link Buttons allow you to move quickly between the Author Index, the Abstracts, and individual papers. The “Author Index” button (figure 4) returns you to the top of the Index of Authors, and the “Go Back” button (figure 5) returns you from a paper to its abstract. Figure 4. The Author Index button takes Figure 5. The Go Back button takes you you to the first page of the from a paper to its abstract. index. Using Bookmarks Bookmarks, which appear in the left pane of the Acrobat Reader (figure 6), display the main sections of the Proceedings document. To display Bookmarks, select Window > Show Bookmarks. Clicking on a bookmark will take you to a main section of the document. Figure 6. The Bookmarks pane Finding abstracts You can locate abstracts in two ways: 1. Locate the author’s name in the Author Index a. Click the “Author Index” link in the Bookmarks panel b. Find the author’s name in the alphabetical index c. Click the page number after the author’s name Note: authors may be involved in more than one paper or presentation, which is indicated by multiple page numbers in the index. 2. Use the Acrobat “Find” function a. Click the Find Icon. b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the Find What input box. c. Click the Find button. The first instance of the search text will be highlighted if found by the search. d. Repeat step C to find other instances of your search criteria in the current document. Finding papers You can locate papers in two ways: 1. Link from an abstract · A blue rectangle will surround the title of any abstract with an associated paper. Click inside the rectangle to access the paper. · Some abstracts do not have an associated paper. 2. Use the Acrobat “Search” function: a. Click the Search icon b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the Find What input box. Note: do not include articles (a, an, the) in the search. c. Click the Search button. The title of any documents that include your search criteria will appear in the “Search Results” dialogue box. d. Repeat step C to find other instances of your search criteria in the current document. After accessing a paper, click “Go Back” to return to the Abstracts. Table of Contents Conference Schedule..................................................................................................Enclosed Welcome from the Conference Organizing Committee........................................................... 1 Organizing Committee ...................................................................................................... 3 Conference Volunteers...................................................................................................... 3 Submission Reviewers....................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgement of Sponsors ......................................................................................... 6 Sponsors and Exhibitors.................................................................................................... 7 CDC Global Health Odyssey Tours................................................................................... 21 SD Career Link................................................................................................................. 22 Palermo, Italy 2002 Conference Announcement ................................................................ 23 Abstracts: Listed Alphabetically by First Author.............................................................. 25 Index of Authors............................................................................................................... 163 Welcome Dear Members of the System Dynamics Society: Welcome to the 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society! As you can see from the papers, workshops, and panel discussions listed in our program, the field of system dynamics is thriving. Your fellow attendees come from 40 countries and from many different institutional settings. We hope that you will enjoy the program, make new acquaintances, and renew ties with old friends. Over the next three and one-half days you will have a chance to sample system dynamics work by leading practitioners in a variety of application areas. The 250 scheduled presentations are broken down into 25 parallel sessions, 18 poster sessions, 13 workshops, and 4 plenary sessions. We grouped the presentations by topic to help you identify sessions of greatest interest. This year’s program also includes a special tribute to Dana Meadows who passed away since our last conference in Bergen, Norway. To increase your enjoyment of the conference, we have scheduled several special events including a welcome reception, a conference banquet with live music, a southern cookout with roving singers, our first-ever pool tournament, lunch tours at the US Centers for Disease Control, and a fireside chat with Jay W. Forrester. We welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants but not attending the formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events, feel at home in the conference center facilities, and enjoy the attractions of Atlanta. This year over 100 reviewers screened and categorized submissions. Dozens more volunteers put in many hours to ensure a successful conference. Without their help our conference would be impossible. A special thanks goes to all who helped. We hope you find the conference rewarding. If we can do anything to assist you, please tell the conference staff. Thank you for joining us. Best wishes from the Conference Organizers Nathan Forrester, Jim Hines, Roberta Spencer and Vedat Diker Organizing Committee Conference Chair Program Co-Chair Nathan B. Forrester James H. Hines Georgia-Pacific Corporation Massachusetts Institute of Technology Atlanta, Georgia USA Cambridge, Massachusetts USA Vice Chair, Program Conference Manager Vedat G. Diker Roberta L. Spencer Rockefeller College, University at Albany System Dynamics Society Albany, New York USA Albany, New York USA Conference Volunteers Timothy Akers Hassan Dibadj Mila Getmansky US Centers for Disease Control University at Albany Massachusetts Institute of Tech. CDC Liaison Student Assistant Vice-Chair, Topics Paulo Goncalves Ted Lawrence Marc A. Lee Massachusetts Institute of Tech. University at Albany United States Military Academy Vice-Chair, Topics SD Career Link Vice-Chair, Topics Luis Luna-Reyes Nan Lux Ignacio Martinez Moyano University at Albany Massachusetts Institute of Tech. University at Albany