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Decarbonising Road Transport There Is No Silver Bullet 2020 Decarbonising Road Transport

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Decarbonising Road Transport There Is No Silver Bullet 2020 Decarbonising Road Transport DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET 2020 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT CONTENTS Foreword 3 Introduction 4 Road Transport Segments 5 Passenger Car 5 Light Commercial Vehicles 8 Heavy Commercial Vehicles 9 Powertrain Comparison 10 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) 10 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) 10 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) 11 uel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) 11 Renewable Fuels 12 CO2 Emissions 13 Current Average CO2 Figures 13 Holistic ‘Well to Wheel’ CO2 Analysis 14 Powertrain Technology Analysis 15 Decarbonising the Legacy Fleet 17 Conclusion 18 References 19 Appendix 20 Page 2 of 21 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT FOREWORD The UK automotive sector is a valuable asset to the UK economy, generating £82bn and providing 832,000 jobs in the UK. It is a key sector and a global R&D focus point with £3.75bn invested in 2019, yet government ambitions for phasing out the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles at some point in the 2030s mean the next few months will be critical in determining its future. The Government has pledged that by 2050 the UK will be a ‘net zero’ emitter of CO2. Emissions have reduced since 1990 and the UK has done well so far in meeting its CO2 reduction targets. However, at present, the UK is set to fall behind by 2023. Now that coal-fired power stations have closed down and we have started to use much more natural gas and renewable energy, road transport is one of the biggest CO2 emitters. We need to reduce this, and quickly. While a clear and achievable target for ending the sale of petrol and diesel cars is vital for the industry to prepare for a managed transition to a cleaner future, we should not be fooled into thinking this alone will solve the problem. We need to address the decarbonisation of both vehicle and fuel to have any real hope of meeting our CO2 reduction ambitions. With a new generation of clean automotive vehicles and technologies on the horizon, government and industry should work together to identify what position we as a nation want to play and ensure that our domestic market is ready and able to meet that desire. The UK is home to some incredibly innovative companies and research institutions. We should foster their creativity by taking a technology neutral approach to our ambition for emission reduction, allowing the industry to do what it does best; innovate. For example, we have some amazing electric cars already on the market, but hydrogen is better placed for larger vehicles and so Government policy should encourage these technologies to be explored too. This report is aimed at informing the debate on emissions reduction so that policy makers can make the right decisions and to ensure the UK is able to maintain a strong domestic automotive market, providing a solid foundation for global exports. Matt Western MP Chair All Party Parliamentary Motor Group Page 3 of 21 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT INTRODUCTION Reaching net zero carbon by 2050 will be a huge challenge for society and industry in the UK. In their latest annual progress report the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) made a series of recommendations on how to decarbonise road transport, advocating for a greater penetration of Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles (ULEVs) into the market and the establishment of infrastructure to support these new vehicles. The UK automotive industry is fully committed to the decarbonisation of its products whilst also minimising the environmental impact of its operations. Through investments in new technologies, emissions from vehicles has fallen steadily since 2000, when new CO2 based taxation was brought in. This improvement has however stalled in recent years due in part to government policy on diesel, a lack of Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (ULEV) on the market, the cost of these vehicles and the concerns around charging availability. This trend seems to have reversed in 2020 with Q1 data from the Department for Transport detailing new car CO2 emissions falling to their lowest ever levels of 118.3g/km2. Coupled with this the number of battery electric and plug in vehicles increasing from 3.15%1 in 2019 according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) to 8.8%2 YTD in 2020. However, tailpipe emissions are not the whole story. We need to consider the whole picture of emissions in understanding the impact different technologies have on the environment. To have a real impact on our emissions from road transport we need to address the decarbonisation of both vehicle and fuel to have any real hope of meeting our climate reduction ambitions. This is sometimes referred to as ‘Well to Wheel’. Accepting a range of technologies will play a role in meeting our road transport decarbonisation ambitions; the industry will be able to decarbonise in a shorter time frame than mandating one particular technology, which may not be suitable for all applications. This approach, often called a Technology Neutral Approach, will allow our highly innovative industry to be a leader in the development of some of these new technologies such as Battery Systems, Motors & Power Electronics, Lightweight Structures, Hydrogen and Synthetic/E-Fuels. All of which have a role in reducing the carbon emissions from road transport. The current number of vehicles registered on UK roads stands at over 40 million1, covering a range of different vehicle types. This report aims to illustrate the differences between the various vehicle segments, the technologies available and their role in supporting road transport decarbonisation. ‘ WE NEED TO DECARBONISE BOTH VEHICLE AND FUEL TO HAVE ANY CHANCE OF REACHING OUR CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION AMBITIONS.’ MATT WESTERN MP CHAIR, ALL PARTY PARLIAMENTARY MOTOR GROUP NO. OF VEHICLES AVERAGE AGE AVERAGE NEW CAR CO2 8.8% OF NEW CAR ON UK ROADS OF CAR IN UK EMISSIONS IN 2019 REGISTRATIONS ARE 40 MILLION 8.3 YEARS 127.8g/km PLUG IN 2020 YTD Page 4 of 21 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT ROAD TRANSPORT SEGMENTS Road Transport takes many different forms from small electric scooters and bikes through to Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) and everything in between. Each of these segments has its own attributes (size, power, weight, range & cost) and therefore may require different technologies to meet carbon neutrality targets. As an example, the driver of a Ford Fiesta will have chosen that vehicle based on their needs and vehicle use, whereas the driver of a Ford Transit van has different needs, so has chosen that vehicle based on those needs. One is optimised for the school run, the other for package delivery. These two vehicles are very different and therefore have different needs when it comes to their respective powertrains. This segmentation analysis is explored further below. Passenger Car There are 35 million passenger cars on the road in the UK according to the SMMT1. These vehicles cover a range of segments with differing types of vehicle for different applications, these segments are classified by Euro NCAP3 and are explained in Figure 1 below. SEGMENT DESCRIPTION % CHANGE SINCE 2010 2019 REGISTRATIONS A Mini -20.8% 42,243 B Small -6.8% 685,801 C Medium +16.6% 633,430 D Large -36.3% 168,123 E Executive -4.5% 94,667 F Luxury -12.1% 7,155 S Specialist Sports -4.5% 44,310 J Dual Purpose SUV +259.2% 562,360 M Multi Purpose Vehicle -41.2% 73,051 Total 2,311,140 Figure 1 – Vehicle Segment Growth1, 3 ‘ THERE IS NO SILVER BULLET FOR ACHIEVING THE DE-CARBONISATION OF ROAD TRANSPORT. AS THIS REPORT SETS OUT, IN IMPRESSIVE DETAIL, WE NEED A COMBINATION OF TECHNOLOGY AND SOLUTIONS TO ACHIEVE NET ZERO.’ DR UWE GACKSTATTER PRESIDENT, BOSCH POWERTRAIN SOLUTIONS Page 5 of 21 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT SEGMENT NO. OF % TYPICAL VEHICLE OPTIONS TECH NO. OF POWER WEIGHT RANGE AVG. CO2 COST SALES CHANGE OCCUPANTS (BHP) (KG) (MILES) (G/KM) (£) MAKE MODEL ➜ Hyundai I10 ICE 4 76 941 418 114 10,511 Clio A 42,243 Renault Full Hybrid 4 140 1323 0 98 18,770 20.8 E-Tech VW e-Up BEV 4 80 1160 93 0 20,150 ➜ Ford Fiesta ICE 4 103 1210 489 82 16,385 B 685,989 Mini Countryman PHEV 4 217 1760 28.6* 39 32,000 6.8 Vauxhall Corsa E BEV 4 70 1163 209 0 27,665 VW Golf ICE 5 194 1413 495 117 20,280 C 633,430 ➜ Toyota Prius PHEV 5 120 1375 39* 22 31,695 16.6 VW E-Golf BEV 5 113 2020 144 0 29,740 BMW 3 Series ICE 5 257 1,707 583 123 29,990 ➜ BMW 330e PHEV 5 288 1845 40* 43 37,875 D 168,123 36.3 Tesla Model 3 BEV 5 225 1726 250 0 42,500 Toyota Mirai FCEV 5 153 1850 342 0 61,500 ➜ Mercedes C Class ICE 5 318 1707 676 138 28,035 E 94,667 Mercedes C300e PHEV 5 316 1815 33* 37 43,015 4.4 Tesla Model 3 ICE 5 225 1726 254 0 42,500 ➜ Mercedes S Class ICE 5 612 2165 591 231 74,540 F 7,155 Porsche Panamera E PHEV 4 462 2170 31* 60 88,718 12.1 Tesla Model S BEV 5 554 2108 379 0 77,980 Ford Kuga ICE 5 170 1704 501 171 23,995 Ford Kuga PHEV 5 222 1844 35* 32 33,095 J 562,360 ➜ 259.2 Jaguar i-Pace BEV 5 394 2133 292 0 64,695 Hyundai Nexo FCEV 5 161 1874 413 0 69,495 ➜ Citroen Spacetourer ICE 8 174 1806 492 100 35,235 M 73,051 Volvo XC90 PHEV 7 407 2256 35* 63 40,000 41.2 Mercedes EQV BEV 5 402 2495 292 0 70,665 ➜ Porsche 911 Carrera ICE 2 379 1580 380 233 82,795 S 44,122 BMW I8 PHEV 2 368 1485 32* 42 115,105 4.5 Porsche Taycan BEV 2 751 2380 201 0 83,000 Figure 2 – Vehicle Segment Comparison1, 3, 4 * Range for the Plug in Hybrids (PHEV) vehicles has been considered as the e-range only Page 6 of 21 DECARBONISING ROAD TRANSPORT Over the past ten years consumer tastes have changed, with a move away from smaller vehicles (A&B segments) towards Medium (C segment), which has grown 16.6%1 since 2010.
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