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MAY 2018 Wicked Problems of Living in a Seismic Zone Sampling the World’S Stratosphere

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MAY 2018 Wicked Problems of Living in a Seismic Zone Sampling the World’S Stratosphere VOL. 99 NO. 5 MAY 2018 Wicked Problems of Living in a Seismic Zone Sampling the World’s Stratosphere Earth & Space Science News Soft-Tissue Fossils EXPLORING A RESTLESS LAKEBED Regardless of your career stage, find resources and programs to help you advance your career. Read career advice, explore job listings, discover mentoring opportunities, and more. Advance yourself at pathfinder.agu.org Earth & Space Science News Contents MAY 2018 PROJECT UPDATE VOLUME 99, ISSUE 5 Regardless of your career stage, find resources 20 and programs to help you advance your career. The Wicked Problem of Earthquake Hazard in Developing Countries Read career advice, explore job listings, Earthquake preparation in Bangladesh is a conundrum, where crucial information discover mentoring opportunities, and more. is missing and investments often involve painful trade-offs. PROJECT UPDATE 32 Around the World in 84 Days In the Stratéole 2 program, set to launch in November 2018, instruments will ride balloons into the stratosphere and circle the world, observing properties of the air and winds in fine detail. 26 OPINION COVER Climate Models Are 15 Uncertain, but We Can Do Exploring the Restless Floor Something About It Model simulations of many climate of Yellowstone Lake phenomena remain highly uncertain Yellowstone Lake, far from any ocean, hosts underwater hot springs similar to those on despite scientific advances and huge mid-ocean ridges. A research team is investigating the processes that drive the lake’s amounts of data. Scientists must do more hydrothermal systems. to tackle model uncertainty head- on. Advance yourself at pathfinder.agu.org Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1 Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ [email protected] Editors Christina M. S. Cohen Wendy S. Gordon Carol A. Stein California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl .caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., José D. Fuentes David Halpern USA; [email protected] Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com [email protected] Editorial Advisory Board Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Sciences John W. Lane, Near-Surface Geophysics Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics Jian Lin, Tectonophysics and Aeronomy Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography Peter Fox, Earth and Space Science and Paleoclimatology Informatics Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere Sciences 40 Edward J. Garnero, Study of the Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental Earth’s Deep Interior Change Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology Eric M. Riggs, Education Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics 3–11 News 38–39 AGU News Kristine C. Harper, History of Geophysics Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral Sarah M. Hörst, Planetary Sciences and Rock Physics Pacific’s Garbage Hot Spot Virtual Poster Showcase Experienced Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary Holds More Plastic Debris Than Steady Growth in 2017. Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology, Surface Processes Was Thought; Rocks with Soft- Geochemistry, and Petrology Earle Williams, Atmospheric Keith D. Koper, Seismology and Space Electricity Tissue Fossils Share a Mineral 40–44 Research Spotlight Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts Fingerprint; Alaska Spotlights Its and Paleomagnetism and Policy Sciences Health Risks from Climate Change; A Novel Way To Track Magma Staff Environmental Ratings Lowest Ever Flow; Solid-​­Fuel Use Puts Human Production and Design: Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior for Congressional Republicans; Health at Risk; Space Weathering Production Specialist; Beth Bagley, Manager, Design and Branding; Travis Frazier and Valerie Friedman, Senior Graphic Designers House Science Subcommittee Asymmetrically Alters Lunar Crater Walls; What Causes Flash Floods in Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific Hearing Targets Sexual Harassment; Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer; Stanley “Stan” Ruttenberg ( 1926– the Middle East?; Preserving a Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator; Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Writing and Production Intern 2017); Joseph B. Walsh (1930–2017). 45-Year Record of Sunspots; Fiber- Optic Networks Can Be Used as Marketing: Jamie R. Liu, Manager, Marketing; Angelo Bouselli and Taryn Hudson, Marketing Program Managers; Ashwini Yelamanchili, Digital Marketing Coordinator Seismic Arrays; Using Radar to 12–14 Meeting Reports Advertising: Dan Nicholas, Display Advertising, Email: [email protected]; Understand How Volcanic Eruptions Heather Cain, Recruitment Advertising, Email: [email protected] Toward a Satellite- Based Monitoring Evolve; A New Tool That Illuminates System for Water Quality; U.S. and Tiny Fractures in Coal. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is China Assess also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books Ecosystem 45–48 Positions Available and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office. Effects of Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by the American Geophysical Union, Current job openings in the Earth 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid a Fading at Washington, D. C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address Cryosphere; and space sciences. changes to Member Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, Vetting New USA. Models of 12 Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: Inside Back Cover: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; Email: [email protected]. Climate Postcards from the Field Use AGU’s Geophysical Electronic Manuscript Submissions system to submit a Responses to Geoengineering. manuscript: http://eos-submit.agu.org. One (AC)3 team takes an aerial photo Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect official positions of the 15–16 Opinion to commemorate the ending of their American Geophysical Union unless expressly stated. Arctic cloud research campaign. Christine W. McEntee, Executive Director/CEO Climate Models Are Uncertain, but We Can Do Something About It. On the Cover Scientists prepare to take core 17–18 GeoFIZZ samples from the bed of Wyoming’s When Your Weird Science Yellowstone Lake. Credit: C. Linder, Gets Stopped at Airport Security. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos company/american-geophysical-union AGUvideos americangeophysicalunion americangeophysicalunion 2 // Eos May 2018 NEWS map it and a 2016 aerial expedition. The study Pacific’s Garbage Hot Spot Holds More was authored by scientists affiliated with the foundation, six universities, and an aerial sen- Plastic Debris Than Was Thought sor company. The 3-year research project, which investi- gated the area from ships and aircraft, found that debris larger than 5 centimeters makes up more than 75% of the GPGP plastic mass, with much of that being fishing nets. Measur- able pieces of microplastic less than 4 milli- meters in size account for 8% of the mass. Many Factors Behind Debris Increase Prior estimates by other researchers put the plastic tonnage adrift in the patch at about 4,800–21,000 metric tons. The new paper sug- gests that the increased estimate of floating plastic mass is due mainly to more robust methods for quantifying ocean debris. How- ever, increased levels of plastic pollution in the area—including plastic from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami—could also account for some of the difference, the authors note. The study results underline “the urgency of dealing with the plastic pollution problem.” Despite the enormous amount of floating plastic, the study found that it’s far less than global models had predicted based on plastic inputs from land- and marine- ​­based sources. The researchers conclude that other disper- sals—including through beaching and frag- mentation into ever smaller and unmeasured pieces—account for some of the shortfall compared to model predictions. Moreover, “levels of plastic pollution in deep water lay- ers and [on the] seafloor below the GPGP remain unknown and could not be quantified through sampling,” the paper states. The Ocean Cleanup Foundation, which has Crew on the R/V Ocean Starr pulling a discarded net from the Pacific Ocean during the 2015 Mega Expedition to the an ambitious goal of cleaning up 90% of all Great Pacific Garbage Patch. This was one of 30 ships on that expedition. Credit: Ocean Cleanup Foundation ocean gyres by 2040, plans to take cues from the study’s results as it develops a fleet of passive floating collection devices. The group he sprawling Great Pacific Garbage an estimated 1.8 trillion pieces of floating plans to deploy its first cleanup system in Patch (GPGP) is not only the largest ocean plastic, the paper reports. mid-​­2018. Foundation founder and CEO Boyan T plastic accumulation zone on Earth. It The garbage patch covers about 3 times the Slat said that the study results “provide us also contains 4–16 times more floating plastic area of continental
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