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APPENDICES Appendix A APPENDICES Appendix A Analysis of Industry Crude and Product Oil Spills on the Alaska North Slope and Estimates of Potential Spills for the Liberty Development Project _____________________________________________________ Appendix A. Analysis of Industry Crude and Product Oil Spills on the Alaska North Slope and Estimates of Potential Spills for the Liberty Development Project July 2, 2007 SUBMITTED TO: BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. P.O. Box 196612 Anchorage, Alaska 99519-6612 SUBMITTED BY: Everest Consulting Associates 15 North Main Street Cranbury, NJ 08512 __________________________________________________ Appendix A. Analysis of Industry Crude and Product Oil Spills on the Alaska North Slope and Estimates of Potential Spills for the Liberty Development Project Table of Contents: Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 4 A brief description of Typical ANS Oil and Gas facilities.................................................................... 5 Types of spills ....................................................................................................................................... 6 The spill database .................................................................................................................................. 7 -Updating the oil spill database for the Liberty Development Project ........................................... 9 -Period of analysis.......................................................................................................................... 11 Spill data and spill rates......................................................................................................................... 12 -Size distribution of ANS spills ..................................................................................................... 12 “Large” spill definition and projections ................................................................................................ 14 Probability calculations for future large spills from the Liberty Development Project......................... 16 -Estimate of future large spills from the Liberty Development Project.......................................... 16 Empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) of ANS large spill volumes ................................... 20 -Fitting the large spill data to a probability distribution................................................................. 22 -Using the raw data directly (nonparametric methods) .................................................................. 25 Summary: likely large crude oil spill volume........................................................................................ 26 Future cumulative spill volumes............................................................................................................ 26 -Confidence intervals ..................................................................................................................... 27 Large crude oil spill estimates in this analysis compared to FEIS estimates......................................... 28 Small spills ............................................................................................................................................ 29 -Small crude oil spills..................................................................................................................... 29 -Product spills................................................................................................................................. 32 Summary of small spill projections....................................................................................................... 32 References ............................................................................................................................................. 34 Table of Figures: Fig. 1. Annual number of crude and product spills listed in ANS oil spill database, 1977 to 2006. ................................................................................................................................... 11 Fig. 2. A hypothetical Lorenz diagram: the size of the area between the line of constant spill volume and the actual Lorenz curve as a fraction of the bounding triangle ABC is used as a measure of inequality................................................................................................... 12 Fig. 3. Actual Lorenz curve for ANS crude and product spills (1985-2006). ................................ 13 Fig. 4. Cumulative distribution function for ANS E&P spills less than 5 bbls (1985-2006). ........ 14 Fig. 5. Empirical CDF of ANS large (≥ 200 bbls) spills 1985-2006.............................................. 21 Fig. 6. A comparison between the observed (plotted points) and best-fit three-parameter Weibull distribution to ANS large (≥ 200 bbls) spill data. ................................................. 23 Fig. 7. A “P-P” plot showing the comparison between observed and fitted ANS large (≥ 200 bbls) spill CDFs....................................................................................................... 23 Fig. 8. Best-fit three-parameter Weibull distributions using two fitting criteria. ........................... 23 Fig. 9. Empirical CDFs of 1,662 small crude oil spills and 5,456 produced spills for ANS 1985-2006. Note that x-axis shows natural logarithm of spill size. ................................... 29 Fig. 10. Volumetric spill rates (VSRs) for ANS small crude oil spills, 1985-2006. ....................... 30 Fig. 11. Volumetric spill rates (VSRs) for ANS product spills, 1985-2006. ................................... 32 Table of Tables: Table 1. ANS crude oil spills greater than or equal to 200 bbls (1985-2006) – spill event description. ......................................................................................................................... 7 Table 2. ANS refined product spills greater than or equal to 50 bbls (1985-2006) – spill event description. ......................................................................................................................... 8 Table 3. Calculation of large spill probabilities and confidence intervals for Liberty field. ............ 17 Table 4. Calculation of large spill probabilities and confidence intervals for Liberty field assuming a large spill threshold of 500 bbls. ..................................................................... 19 Table 5. Calculation of large spill probabilities and confidence intervals for Liberty field assuming a large spill threshold of 100 bbls. ..................................................................... 20 Table 6. Statistical tests of adequacy of fit for the three-parameter Weibull model. ....................... 24 Table 7. Summary of results for fitting a three-parameter Weibull distribution to the ANS large spill data (≥ 200 bbls threshold). ........................................................................................ 25 Table 8. Calculation of aggregate large spill volume for Liberty field. ............................................ 27 Table 9. Results of large crude oil spill simulations. ....................................................................... 28 Table 10. Small crude oil spill characteristics, 1985-2006. ............................................................... 31 Table 11. Small product spill characteristics, 1985-2006. ................................................................. 33 Appendix A – Analysis of Industry Crude and Product Oil Spills on the Alaska North Slope and Estimates of Potential Spills for the Liberty Development Project Appendix A. Analysis of Industry Crude and Product Oil Spills on the Alaska North Slope and Estimates of Potential Spills for the Liberty Development Project Summary This appendix explains the data, methods, and results of an analysis of historical crude oil and refined product1 (“product”) spills for Alaska North Slope (ANS) facilities, including wells, facilities and other pipelines up to (but not including) Pump Station 1 (PS-1), which marks the beginning of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the potential direct and indirect environmental impacts of the Liberty Development Project from potential crude oil and product spills. The projection method is based on statistical models used by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) for ANS and other oilfields. The data used for this analysis include historical ANS crude and product spills for the period 1985 – 2006; a time period believed most appropriate for this purpose.2 The basic assumption is that the likelihood of future crude and product spills associated with the Liberty Development Project can be accurately estimated from prior ANS experience, i.e., that spill rates (per billion barrels produced) for this project will be similar to those at other ANS facilities. This basic assumption may overstate potential spills from the Liberty Development Project because this project makes efficient use of existing facilities and features few incremental facilities. The Liberty Development Project design and scope have evolved from an offshore stand-alone development in the outer continental shelf (OCS) (production/ drilling island and subsea
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