MALI Food Security Outlook October 2010 to 2011

• At the peak of the agricultural lean season in late Figure 1. Current estimated food security outcomes, October August 2010, the Early Warning System (SAP) in 2010 had identified 629,427 people at risk of food insecurity. The number of food insecure people has fallen markedly since, approaching the lowest level of consumption year in October.

• FEWS NET estimates that cereal production in 2010/11 will be better than that of 2009/10, which was, according to the Standing Inter-State Committee Against Drought in the Sahel (CILSS), approximately 4.7 million MT. The government of Mali, in a presentation to CILSS in 2010, estimated that growth in agricultural production could increase 17 percent compared to last year.

• Indicators relating to levels of acute malnutrition, even at the peak of the lean season in For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please July/August, suggest trends within the normal see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Source: FEWS NET range, although above the emergency threshold according to WHO standards (> 15 percent global acute malnutrition) especially in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas of the northeast (Gao, Tomboktou, and Kidal).

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Mali FEWS NET Washington Bamako 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 223 20 29 94 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/Mali

MALI Food Security Outlook October 2010 to March 2011

Most likely food security scenarios October to March 2011

Mali’s national early warning system (SAP) estimated Figure 2. Livelihood zone map of Mali the size of the country’s food insecure population at 629,427, with 258,000 residents of the Gao and Kidal regions alone requiring food aid and livestock assistance between April and July of this year. This group, concentrated mostly in Gao, makes up 40 percent of the population of these two regions. With the recovery of pasturelands and the replenishment of watering holes, the availability of early crops and wild plant foods, and the last deliveries of aid in September, there was a sharp drop in the ranks of the food insecure in October to close to the lowest level of the consumption year.

Acute malnutrition indicators show a normal pattern of malnutrition, even at the height of the lean season in July/August, though rates are above the emergency threshold according to WHO standards (>15 percent global acute malnutrition), particularly in northeastern agropastoral and pastoral areas (Gao, Timbuktu, and Kidal).

The good pasture production reported in northeastern agropastoral and pastoral areas experiencing the highest levels of food insecurity in 2009/10 due to poor agropastoral production is a major improvement over conditions at the same time last year. Vegetation levels in the Gao region northeast of the river range from 300 to 750 kg of dry matter per hectare.

The government expects an improvement in total grain production for 2010 compared with figures for last season which, according to the CILSS, put production at approximately 4.7 million metric tons. A conservative estimate of nationwide grain production for 2010/11 puts it somewhere between Source: FEWS NET the figure for 2009/10 and the 17 percent improvement over the 2009/10 season predicted in September. The materialization of this production forecast would make this the country’s fifth consecutive good crop year.

Traders have begun to unload their inventories in the face of this season’s promising harvest outlook as of August. Markets are still well stocked with crops and are reporting good grain availability. Price levels are at or below nominal prices for last year and the nominal five-year average (except for millet prices in Kayes). The outlook assumes stable grain trade policies and practices, similar to those of the last three years, and that any rise in international market prices for grain or fluctuation in exchange rates will not radically affect domestic prices and trade flows from surplus grain-producing areas to grain-short areas.

Prices for millet and sorghum, the staple grains for most poor households across the country, came down by roughly 20 percent from their September level between October and December, according to the nominal five-year average. Kayes generally has the smallest downswing in prices (five percent), with Koulikoro, Segou, and Sikasso reporting the steepest drops in prices, at around 30-40 percent. With this year’s good harvests and inventory levels, the downturn in prices in

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MALI Food Security Outlook October 2010 to March 2011 these areas is expected to be steeper than usual. Even with a Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario for October larger sales capacity, low farm gate prices at the time when – December 2010 poor farmers sell most of their grain could adversely affect annual household income levels. Prices for small animals reach their yearly peak during this period beginning with the feast of Tabaski, which will celebrated in mid-November this year, followed by the and New Year’s holidays. The fact that this year’s period coincides with the main harvest season and the yearly low point for grain prices suggests stronger than usual terms of trade for livestock/grain for pastoralists between October and .

Livelihood zone 4 (millet and transhumant livestock rearing)

Able-bodied workers and entire households from the southern reaches of Ansongo department who had left the area in search of jobs and food security have been returning Source: FEWS NET to abandoned villages since August/September. This is Figure 4. Most likely food security scenario for January – another indicator of the normalization of livelihoods and March 2011 food security outcomes.

However, there are still small pockets of poor pastoral conditions, particularly along the border with Niger, southeast of Menaka. Three consecutive years of poor pastoral conditions have completely decimated the herds of certain poor households and prompted at least 13 pastoral families (89 people) in two villages in the municipality of Andéramboukane to migrate to the Menaka urban area. While only a minor problem in Mali, this is an important issue in Niger. The scenario for this livelihood zone assumes that the area will not be invaded by larger than usual numbers of transhumant animals from Niger. This group of households should face no acute food insecurity problems between now and March of next year.

Livelihood zone 2 (nomadic and transhumant pastoralism) Source: FEWS NET

Close to sixty percent of all households in this livelihood zone are classified as poor or very poor. Poor households normally grow flood-recession sorghum crops in areas around seasonal lakes and ponds. More precisely, these crops are grown primarily by the poorest households. Poor and very poor households depend on the market (purchasing) for 60 percent of their annual food supply. The income used for these purchases comes primarily from gainful employment with middle- income and wealthy households, which accounts for 45 and 60 percent of the annual income of poor and very poor households, respectively, and approximately 10 percent of their food supply in the form of in-kind wage payments. There is a relatively higher demand for labor between October and December to meet construction demand. In addition, the poorest households own approximately 10 to 20 small animals, whose sale, mainly between October and December, accounts for 14 and 26 percent of the annual income of very poor and poor households, respectively. Fonio (Panicum laetum) and watermelons (Citrullus colocynthis) both grow wild in this area between September and October. The fonio is gathered for consumption by the area’s poorest households. Despite major losses of sedentary animals between May and July of this year, particularly by the poor, continuing good pastoral conditions and mutual aid in the form of credit and herd rebuilding assistance should suffice to keep most poor households from facing acute food insecurity problems during the outlook period.

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MALI Food Security Outlook October 2010 to March 2011

Table 1. Feasible events liable to change the most likely scenario in the next six months

Area Event Effects on food security conditions The presence of large numbers of transhumant animals from Niger Livelihood Arrival of larger than usual would overload the already limited carrying capacity of zones 2 and numbers of transhumant pasturelands and watering holes and shorten the duration of these 4 animals from Niger resources for the indigenous population. Rises in international market Market-dependent poor households, mainly in urban areas, will prices for wheat and rice are replace rice and wheat with coarse grains. The growing household Nationwide passed on to Malian consumers, demand for these crops will affect coarse grain prices, making grain radically affecting retail prices access increasingly difficult, even in rural areas. Problems with the elections in This would affect business and trade between Mali and these Cote d’Ivoire and Guinea, which neighboring countries. Such a scenario would result in the are home to large numbers of haphazard repatriation of Malian citizens residing in these countries

Malians and the establishment of IDP camps. This would create widespread insecurity and would mean losses of jobs and income, putting affected households at risk and in need of assistance.

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