CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW

C THE OPING WITHOPING C ZECH E In fulfillment partial of therequirements for degreethe of NERGY Doctor Doctor Philosophyof Politicalin Science R Supervisor: Professor Greskovits Béla EPUBLIC E

A Doctoral Dissertation submitted to Department Political of Science S NERGY Central European University ECURITY IN Budapest, Hungary Andrej Nosko , 2013

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW another by published exceptperson,theformbibliographicalacknowledgmentappropriatemade whereof isin reference. and/or written previously materials no contains thesis This institutions. an for accepted been have thesis this of parts no that declare hereby I D ECLARATION ii

y other degrees in any other any in degrees other y Andrej NoskoAndrej

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW one theonly not within security, energy analyzing for model conceptual broader for foundations the lay also I project this Through governments. by pursued being are that aspects is important, albeit security, Energy transition. during prioritization policy security of understanding to contributing by and politics, domestic back bringing by debate policy energy c theoretical broader The i.e. that de are interests industrial threat of effects the dampen can thus and threat, rul of supporters among concentrated and high is supply, energy the to connected be plausibly can which threat, of perception popular When interact: and coincide aspects three when prioritized are security European East and Central the in observe I As factors.externalfundamentalsand i factor the understand to order In domesticspatialandof variation comparableresponses to conditions. international temporal on field research broader the to contributes dissertation this questions, these answering th explains what and time, over vary dependence import energy of position structural with coping of responses domestic their prioritize do Why conditions differently. security energy international comparable under countries why study I dissertation this In A hbtn conditions nhibiting BSTRACT

, was an obstacleprivatization,policieswasantoincreasing aimingprioritizing energy to security.

specific timing of timing specific ing parties; when former elites who can draw on personal links with the perceived source of of source perceived the with links personal on draw can who elites former when parties; ing

of theenergyof pri policy

change of ownership lowering the control of control the lowering ownership of change in countries in transition, through case selection, I isolate effects of of effects isolate I selection, case through transition, in countries in - concentrated and face obstacles in promoti in obstacles face and concentrated ontribution of this dissertation consists of argument for reframing the the reframing for argument of consists dissertation this of ontribution s of prioritizing security in energy policy, and their facilitating and facilitating their and policy, energy in security prioritizing of s

orities. iii countries in transition, policies enhancing energy enhancing policies transition, in countries ,

are removed from power; and when incumbent incumbent when and power; from removed are e type of variation and its timing? By timing? its and variation of type e more inclusive inclusive more

government over energy assets energy over government ng their interests. I also argue argue also I interests. their ng

context, as one as context,

only one of the the of one only

, but , CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW dedicateIdissertationto thisthememorymy of for Ľubo, resea my in hidden was patiently I whenever household the managing spec most The data.price tha I whom with me especiallyconnected and library, CEU the at staff the to thankful am I theelitesto Slovakia Jurigová sources news primary in help his for him thank I and ears, and eyes Hungarian and to grateful am I databases. meticulous her for enough her assistants m of help the from benefited tremendously have I data of amount vast the collecting In explanatorymyof inspired model.part arguments Thim, Michal Jaroš, Jakub to thankful am I different. very look would dissertation this help their provided stages to studies early my theirguidancein to security. I rewarding first my of understanding his for Almeida, de workl the balanced to thankful am I perhapshaveofthetoughestbeenofearlymostcriticschapters. mydrafts of 2006 Eur Central panels of supervisory the with together support generous the scholarship from benefited have I theadvanced in research.mystagesof and energy needed much very provided am guidance and comments whose I but rolling, already endeavor. research this finish to me and Jenne Erin to grateful enabling in priceless was understanding and stimulus thank to like would I A am indebted to indebted am

CKNOWLEDGEMENTS Anita Orbán, Anita scanning scanning . I would like to thank fell thank to like would I .

,

-

I would like to thank Július Horváth, Stefano Guzzini and Svante E. Cornell, it was thanks was it Cornell, E. Svante and Guzzini Stefano Horváth, Július thank to like would I ad xeine f oiyaig rcse o te uoen Union European the of processes policymaking of experience hand . My sister My . for me to finish up t up finish to me for who helped with with helped who and . allandtheirhelp .

I am thankful to Sanja Pesek, for the for Pesek, Sanja to thankful am I nk for providing me with with me providing for nk past at the Department of Political Science Political of Department the at

hundreds of of hundreds Eszter ial thanks are due to my family: my to due are thanks ial Jiří Schneider, Schneider, Jiří communistregime. Buldioski Goran my dear friend and mentor and friend dear my oad at the Fund the at oad

Péter Hegedűs Péter - Vlast Petronella Soós Soós Petronella , Béla Greskovits, Béla

based on my often erratic a erratic often my on based a Nosková, Jr. Nosková, a archival articlesin archival Andre emotionalsupport. through Mirka Holubíková Holubíková Mirka searching and

ow members of of members ow he writing so that I can read can I that so writing he Karel Hirman, Karel cross ei Rosner Kevin as Goldthau, Goldthau, as

, at the Think Tank Fund Tank Think the at

at TÁ at

and that I that

comments, recommendations and information without which which without information and recommendations comments, , whose help whose -

my urge to finish this research; this finish to urge my

their assistance in accessing threat perception survey perception threat accessing in assistance their checking offered fresh feedback on many versions of my drafts my of versions many on feedback fresh offered

mentor supervisor, my n collecting and the was my first and first my was RKI and RKI

have set on path of studying energy security.energy studying ofpath on sethave PhD research at the University. I thank Joaquim Nunes Nunes Joaquim thank I University. the at research PhD the , Urban Rusnák, Urban who joined my supervisory panel supervisory my joined who

the

, for being my extended presence in Czech in presence extended my being for Vica, my wife my Vica, l of late ate Olda Černý, Olda ate Czech National Library National Czech with whom I was able to test some of my early early my of some test to able was I whom with iv was instrumental to instrumental was extensive

nd incomplete nd Political Economy Research Group (PERG) who who (PERG) Group Research Economy Political

Károly data on data , and the Annual Doctoral Conferences Doctoral Annual the and , father digital searching and cross and searching the most diligent most the , Schmidt at E.ON Földgáz Trade Földgáz E.ON at Schmidt

disc , Ján Nosko, aJánNosko, Czech and Slovak Slovak and Czech

for his support and understanding as I I as understanding and support his for

, es ore i Ceh Republic Czech in sources news with with ,

Petr Lang Petr

and and friend whose support, intellectual intellectual support, whose friend and Ivett Moln Ivett has been tremendously supportive in supportive tremendously been has ussions on transitional on ussions inklings rch cell, my daughter Ica Ica daughter my cell, rch who who Václav Bartuška, Václav her opean University, the doctoral doctoral the University, opean

research his friendship and guidance in in guidance and friendship his . I thank my mom, sister and and sister mom, my thank I . o efsiae y energy by fascinated me got , Petr Binhack, Petr , . . I appreciate help of help appreciate I . tragic victim of transition.tragicofvictim Gergely Nagy Gergely á r

assistant, I cannot thank thank cannot I assistant, who took initiative and initiative took who - checking of Hungarian Hungarian of checking

ing ing m ,

when the train was was train the when inisters in inisters links of Hungarian Hungarian of links

hav who at different different at who justice, which justice,

been e I am gratefulam I has been my my been has Peter Ševce, Peter y research y , Republic Republic

multiple multiple . impetus both of of both and gas and

These, waited Beáta Beáta since

truly truly and

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Hun 6. Chapter Slovak Republic5. Chapter Republic4. CzechChapter Republics and3. CzechSlovak Chapter 2. ExplanatoryChapterCompared Variables StateofTheoreticaltheofReview1.ArtChapter Contributionand Introduction Abbreviations Tables,ofFiguresList Charts and ofContents Table Acknowledgements Abstract Declaration T ABLE OF 5.4. Dzurinda’sGovernments Two5.4. Sell of Mečiar’s 5.3. EasternNationalism(1993 and TimingofSequencing5.2. Privatization ChoiceofJustice5.1. Transitional Policies Summary4.5. 1998Republic Czech4.4. EnergyKlaus’s4.3. SecurityTwoduring Governments 1993 and TimingofSequencing4.2. Privatization ChoiceofJustice4.1. Transitional Policies Summary3.3. PrioritizationoftheEnergy Security 3.2. inFederal Policies Slovaksand Czech3.1. StartApart Drifting PrioritizationofSecurity 2.4. in EnergyPolicy Compared Energy Concentration2.3. of RulingRelations Elites’2.2. withRussia Inf 2.1. Research1.7. inDetailModel Puzzle 1.6. Case1.5. Selection RivalExplanations1.4. Policy UnderstandingtheVariationPriorities1.3. in Definition of1.2. EnergySecurity Theoreticaland Discussion Research1.1. Puzzle andQuestion Structureof ResearchQuestion Puzzle 5.5. Summary5.5.

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Bibliography HungaryAppendix: Slovak Republic Appendix: RepublicCzechAppendix: aspectsComparativeAppendix: Conclusion Supplier MarketSupplierDiversification IndustryStructureof Eli Ruling Threatperception Fundamentals Suppli IndustryStructureof ElitesLinksRulingwiththe PreviousRegime Threatperception Fundamentals MarketSupplierDiversification IndustryStructureof ElitesLinksRulingwiththe PreviousRegime Threat Fundamentals EnergyPrices EnergyMix MarketSupplierDiversification TransitInfrastructure EnergySecurityIndices IndustryStructureof IndustrialInterests ElitesLinksRulingwiththe PreviousRegime ThreatPerception Fundamentals SuggestionsFutureforResearch ApplicabilitytheExplanatoryModelof MethodologicalInnovation andTheoretical Summary6.7. theSellout, Resumingthe6.6. and Russian(2002 Friendship OrbánStrengthening 6.5. the“Hungar Horn: Receipts6.4. CashoverSecurity (1994 BearingTheir6.3. BestwithCreditors Theirat Back(1990 and TimingofSequencing6.2. Privatization ChoiceofJustice6.1. Transitional Policies

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Asymmetry42:Chartenergy of imports Asymmetry41:Chartenergy of imports Supply/Demand40:securityChart index Energy39:PolicyChart Index IndexofREES38:Chart Energy(in)security CombinedIndexof37: REESChartEnergy(in)security Measure36:Charttheefficiencyincrease metallurgic of in of exportsectors exportsSharemetallurgic35:productionCharton of Energy34:intensityChartof selected i Employment33:Chartin energyintensiveindustries workersstrikesNumber32:ofChart lockoutsin and involved strikesNumber31:ofChartlockouts and Highest30:levelChartvisits representationtoState29:levelChartofvisitsaccording bilateralNumber28:ofChart treaties numberofTotaltreaties27: RussiaChart with numberofTotalvisitswith26: Chart Ministers25:thepastChartsecretsurveyedbycommunist service theMinisters24:Chartservicerecordedin communist secretdat countriesAffinitygeneral23:towardsChart in Russia2001Affinity22:towardsChart in Russia1991Affinity21:towardsChart in perceptionsDevelopmentspopular20:Chart threat in of Meas19:Chart externalNumber18:ofChart threats identified ofthose%17: thatChart ofthose%16: thatChart 15 Chart Sharethose14:Chartperceivingofnamedas threat 1996 countries in Typesthreat13:ChartofHungary Republic,Slovakia perceivedin Czechand Threat12:inCEEChartperception Threat11:in Chartperception 1991Popular10:perceptionsChartof Russia in Respondents9:Chart asthreatseeing Russiaeithernegativeinfluenceor GDPAnnualGrowth8:Chart Unemployment7:HungaryChartdataRepublic,Czech for Slovakia and Inwardflows6:FDIChart InwardFDIflows5:ChartRussianfromFederation FDIComparison4:ofChart inflows externaldebtComparison3:ofChart governmentsofTimeline2:Chartchanges in SketchFigurethe1: of SummarySimplifiedDependent3:Table of Variables SummarySimplifiedIndependent2:Table of Variables oilgasandconsumption onShareimportedinland1:Table of L IST OF :Sharethoseperceivingofnamedas threat2004 countries in T ABLES ure of fear in generalfearin of ure ,

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW GDPChangesand90:inEnergyinSlovakiaChartConsumption Cont 89:Chart Figure88: Refineryrestructuring inIndustryDistributionof87:EnergyChart FinalConsumption sectors by Energy86:intensityChartof selected Republicsectorsin Czechindustrial Shareindustrial85:Chartexportsof by ofShareexportsenergy84:Chartof sectorsintensivemanufacturing Shareselected83:Chartofindustrial sectors totalindustrial energy consumptionon Intensity82:officialChartof relations RepublicbetweenCzechRussiaand interestpeopleCollaborators81:oftheChart and government in Czech ministerstheCzechrecorded80:Chart informer secretservicecommunist databases Czech’s79:percepChart Threat78:inCzechChartperceptionby Republic political affiliation Threat77:PartyChartPerceptionand 1991 Preferencesin Employment76:Chartin energyintensiveindustries GDPChangesand75:inEnergyCzechChartConsumption Republic Energy74:intensityChartof selected industrial Natural73:ChartGas ResidentialPrices (pre Natural72:ChartGas ResidentialPrices (pre Natural71:ChartGas WholesalePrices Natural70:ChartGas(pre WholesalePrices Taxesother69:andfeesCharttotalga on Comparisonof68:Chart calculated gasprices 2001 Comparisonof67:Chart calculated gasprices 1998 Comparisonof66:Chart calculated gasprices 1993 Comparisonof65:importedChart calculatedgas(Stackedof chart) price Comparisonof64:im Chart calculatedof price Calculated63:Chart prices 1990 gasimport pricesCalculated62:gasimportChart 1994 average Crossborder61:Chartgasprices importHungaryComparisonRepublic,ofgasprices60:in CzechChart Valueof59:Chart gasimports GDP asshareof Reported58:pricesChartgasimport consumptiononShareimportedoilinland57:gasandChart of consumptionShareimported56:on inlandoilChartof onShareoilinland55:Chartconsumptionof Shareimpor 54:Chartof inlandSharenatural53:consumptionChartofgason Comparisonof52:energyChart gasmarketconcentration factor on security Scalemarket51:oilsensitivityChart ofto concentration Market50:Chartoil imports for concentration Scale49:gasmarketsensitivityChart ofto conce Market48:Chartgasimportsfor concentration marketoilgasandConcentration47: comparedChartof partnersNumber46:gasimportsofChartfor partnersNumberimp 45:oilofChartfor physicalpipelinesNumberimport44:oilofChart physicalpipelinesNumber43:gasimportofChart ractedvolumesactualgasvs. importsof ted natural gas on inland consumptioninlandtednatural gason tion ofRussiaUnion)(Sovietasthreat tion

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW [Diversification]Figure118:theHungarianWay Contracted117:actualChart gasvs. volumes importsof(Hungary) FinalinIndustryDistributionof116: Energy ChartConsumption sectors (Hungary)by ShareindustrialHungary115:exportsChartofintensity bysectors in Energy114:intensChart Shareexportsenergy113:Chartof sectorsintensivemanufacturing Shareenergy112:intensiveChartexportsof sectorson Energy111:Chart Intensityofficial110:Chartof relations betweenRussia and Ministers109:Chartwith theprevious tiesregime allegedto ThreatinHungary108:Chartperceptionpoliticalbyaffiliation Perception107:asChartthreat of negative RussiaUnion) (SovietHungary or influence in Changes106:inEnergyHungaryChartGDP and Consumption Employment105:Chartinenergy intensive Contracted104:actualChart gasvs. volumes importsof(Slovakia) Energyselected103:intensityChartof sectorsSlovak Republicindustrial in Shareindustrial102:exportsChartofintensity bysectors data, methodology. (Slovakia) FinalinIndustryDistributionof101: Energy ChartConsumption sectors (Slovakia)by Shareexportsenergy100:Chartof intensivemanufacturin 99 Chart Energy98:Chart ComparisonofRepublic97:Chart variablesSlovak for Intensity96:officialChartof relations betweenSlovakRussiaand Republic Persons95:Chartwithties to ministerstherecordedSlovak94:Chart informer secretservicecommunist databases Perception93:RussiaChartasthreat of negative Union) (SovietinSlovak orRepublic influence Threatby92:inSlovakiaChartperception political affiliation Employmentas91:manufacturingcomparedChartin energyintensiveindustries to industries :Shareenergyof intensivesectorsexports Data)(UN COMTRADE on - intensity ofdifferentindustrial sectorsintensity - intensity of differentof sectorsintensity industrial ity of selectedof sectorsHungary ity industrial in

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 10 9 intheircountries.ownonly not power, and influence their increase further to opportunity new the use to chose them of many als but political only not influence, their preserving of ways for dignitaries looked countries former vassal former the its in counterparts crumbled, empire soviet former the As region. whole the power of positions in formerly officials both when time the At transition. power of context the in made otherwise explanation the for search In securityam relat its the by hardest the hit been have Russia, of allies cut energy countriesamong intheirabilityc European to differences large the political revealing to addition betweenin security, energy and welfare interconnection economic sovereignty, the highlighted have cuts energy recent most two These Puzzle reservedthemostfor pressed growth; GDP in decrease

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW SlovRusGas. and Slovakia Panrusgáz. and bank AEB Russian the in best the danced Hungary While improveitsto energymove security. significant any make not did but times, at it about spoke Slovakia unfinished. process the left started Hungary security. energy of understanding mainstream Republic thus supplies, energy Czech its for contracts The and routes sources, Hungary. diversified and Slovakia Republic, Czech countries: European central I thecomplexhowrelationshipandevolved. her W countries. theindividual in work strategythis did much how differences remarkable were there west, the towards themselves reorient to tried which countries been has approach Russian that see we While tango. to two takes it Butinfluence. of sphere theformer of countries theto resources energysupplying forasvehicles Post thesecountries Russia’s country. to country from em Russia. in as capitalism well as countries crony the with associated risks the time same the at and Union, Soviet collapsing from disruptions supply of threat the faced countries CEE All similarsmallcountries? differen are there why not are there interestingbecauseonly countries open Small options. different for look must countries Smaller differently. vulnerabi face to leverage higher have countries Large odr to order n western European partners, there partners, European western - sovie t state capitalists in Russia tried to establish banks, as well as intermediate companies intermediate as well as banks, establish to tried Russia in capitalists state t

study was not given.wasnot Czech Republic Czech hs developments these ces not only between large countries and small countries, but also among among also but countries, small and countries large between only not ces

are

Nonetheless, the way how they coped with this situation differed situation this with coped they how way the Nonetheless,

a lot of them, as Katzenstein reminds. The puzzling question is questionis puzzling The Katzenstein asreminds. them, of lot a resurgence refused to play according to the Russian conductor, and conductor, Russian the to according play to refused was second to follow with the pair consisting of Devín bank Devín of consisting pair the with follow to second was

were differences were I hoe sample a choose I ,

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of of CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW thepartyHungary. So party which views differing have parties poli While parties? political the of views different by explained be differences the Could differentthisinto practicetheregion.althoughin extent, across left the both allegations publicized to the explain not does itself in this Nonetheless, it. in entangled region the in widespread been has financing party illicit d agenda plain just or corruption, political and financing party by explained be this Could differences? these of source the is What Slovakia.orRepublic Russi additionally towards aversion popular lower much was there because also but earlier, much started it because only not scale, full achieved companies The andschemedown ex (an partner Dzurinda’sgovernm change by stopped was scheme this Slovakia In and Slovakia in did it way Hungary. the security energy on influence negative have didn’t Republic inter particular by state the capturing at attempts experienced elites, also Republic Czech political altogether. arrangement this reformist of emergence prevented of group small by well used Russia, of fear the Republic Czech In hold fledgling

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- the type of energy policies which were implemented by a left by implemented were type energy which policies of the ideological identitydoes not ideological –

this does not explain the fact that in Slovakia it was the right the was it Slovakia in that fact the explain not does this ifferences among different political parties? Corruption and and Corruption parties? political different among ifferences - win ests, g,

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW energytermsof similarmostRepublic,cases,structurallyCzech and Slovakia Hungary. conditions external prioritization security a provide not does explanation ‘fundamentals’ this Nonetheless, resources. energy domestic lesser with countries than securi energy to priority lower attribute will countries rich energy that expecting fundamentals, on based are security energy of prioritization and policies energy in differences of explanation in differences explain can What prioritizeenergyexternallycomparablestructuralpositionextents.different security into in countries, these that demonstrates This situations. security energy precarious face to prepared si illustrate, Europe in developments recent the or As welfare sovereignty. their of reduction the in penalized being risk they Otherwise maximize. to strive alike countries all which aim absolute an as presented been has security energy literature, the In walksthreatincludinglifethusconcernedeconomybeinallenergy.andaboutof to and of baggage historic the not carryingof suppression and intervention Union Soviet of successor direct a as Russia saw dissent, post soviet the of offspring direct less or more were whom of center around congregating elites Political relevant. remains transition perception their and threats specific how Question understood. sufficiently not is felt is vulnerability this vulnerable, are countries open small The - soviet Russia as a threat. Political elites on the other side of the spectrum, including former former including spectrum, the of side other the on elites Political threat. a as Russia soviet

affects the political process and influences influences and process political the affects ,

and s

among relatively similar countries of CEE. T CEE. of countries similar relatively among isolate effects of fundamentals; of effects isolate ase wy e inse sc glaring such witnessed we why answer n

the level of energy security prioritization? The most common most The prioritization? security energy of level the only personal liberties personal only

especially in their energy security, energy their in especially 5

energy

in this dissertation I look at three, in in three, at look I dissertation this in ,

- but but r com era policy choices in small countries in countries small in choices policy also ia cutis r differently are countries milar o control for the effects of of effects the for control o uit ate, i nt see not did parties, munist freedom of their country their of freedom - left political parties, many many parties, political left

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n energy in

- based ty –

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW early the in countries European Eastern and Central the of most of case the is This making. the in are ones new and falter relations power and alliances former when face powers major but allies economic and political aspired their between mismatch apparent an facing transition, in countries open small to especially applies provide I which explanation The similarposition.countries in pr stable with sectors, different of number a over spread the de diversified, is market import are suppliers and routes transit import energy its when security energy high c dependent import energy An prices. energy and mix energy concentration, market import diversification, supplier diversification, transit of: structure and type level, of aspects agenda policy the on high be should it thus and security of parcel and part be to argued is supplies energy of Security theirinterests.promoting de are interests industrial incumbent when and power, from thre of effects the dampen can thus and threat of source perceived the with links personal on draw can who elites former when parties, ruling of supporters among concentrated perce popular When interact: and coincide aspects three when prioritized are securityenergy enhancing policies transition, in countries European East and Central the in observe I As conditions. inhibiting and sec prioritizing of factors the understand to is aim My temporalcomparabledomesticspatialon andofto variationinternational responses conditions. field research broader the to contributes dissertation this questions, these answering By timing? an variation of type the explains what and time, over vary dependence import energy of position structural with coping of responses domestic their do Why differently. security energy I dissertation this In Research Question ption of threat which can plausibly be connected to the energy supply is high and and high is supply energy the to connected be plausibly can which threat of ption - concentrated, and its energy mix is diversified is mix energy its and concentrated, for countries across the world. I define energy security by five constituent five by security energy define I world. the across countries for study why countries under comparable international conditions prioritize conditions international comparable under countries why study

6

urity in energy policy, and their facilitating their and policy, energy in urity ices - concentrated and face obstacles in obstacles face and concentrated

t levels at –

with

comparable – domestic

situation which situation at are removed are at

ountry has ountry consumers o other to d its its d all all

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW policy influences pa achoices in vulnerability of perception specific the how illustrate also I this achieving In happen. ownership of changes significant before implemented be to need transition during increasing to aiming policies prioritizing over ownership government of of change control that the argue lowering also I policy. energy in security of prioritization lower to case in which elites, former of participation higher enabled laws vetting transparent less and consequential less that argue I opportunitystructure. threat elites ruling the choice policy factors: important most three of interplay of result a as domestic happened This prioritization. of result a is argue, I countries, similar otherwise three these among difference observed The Slovakia. and Hungary Republic, Czech of cases three on work empirical comparative intensive by supported is argument This singleone. one as security energy analyzing for model conceptual also I governments. by pursued being are that aspects energ and InternationalRelations b by debate policy energy contribution theoretical The influence. of reins the of out way their for looking were they as nineties, ,

n coc o vet of choice and

rticularpolicy area elcig fet o pwru dmsi itrs gop, ulc ecpin of perception public groups, interest domestic powerful of effects reflecting

ig as t h tm o tasto wih nlecd h domestic the influenced which transition of time the at laws ting

of lower perception of threat of perception lower of ign bc dmsi politics domestic back ringing that I aim to make through through make to aim I that y policy that energy security, albeit important, is only one of the of one onlyis important, albeit security,energy that policyy –

energysecurity.

ene rgy nry ses piaiain was (privatization) assets energy 7

euiy Teeoe security Therefore security.

of the energy policy priorities, but not t not but priorities, policy energy the of towards t towards tie to strive hs dissertation this , s: specifically of sequencing and and sequencing of specifically s:

and and and its sphere of sphere its and Union Soviet he source of dependence lead lead dependence of source he lay foundations for broader broader for foundations lay reminding the students of of students the reminding s in is - increasing policies policies increasing

n btce to obstacle an ermn the reframing interests of of interests he CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 11 energy the compare also I concentration. market import 3) and diversification (contract) supplier 2) and diversification, (pipeline) transit 1) both through diversification, supply energy aspects: typ level, through security energy of prioritization the capture I prioritization. security energy of variable dependent the capturing aspects constituent five all in developments of comparison detailed a provide I chapter second the of end the At cou three all in prioritization security energy the affecting structures industrial the of comparison elites of type elites ruling on focus specific three the in perception threat popular of influence the comparing with start I security. energy of prioritization the influenced have they how and variables independent selected three the of view comparative offer I chapter second the In politicalforce,thetypessupportersruling andamonglawsofvetting of enacted. energy important the as Russia from threat of perceptions popular of presence the by inhibited suppo energy, of consumers industrial domestic largest of interests and concentration type the with elites ruling of interests and structure types, The factors: three between interplay propos I that model The thedomesticdifferences in isolatefactorsIway. thiswhich the out point and cases, the across comparable are which structure opportunity external and cases similar most the on rival based is choose I that design literature, research The detail. in model research the the and explanations in discussion theoretical existing the to dissertation this of contribution of overview provide puzzle, theoretical and empirical the present I introduction the after chapter first the In sections. two into divided is dissertation This of theStructure dissertation andoverview of chapters

Methods of Scientific Investigation Scientific Methods of John Stuart Mill, Mill, JohnStuart ntries.

,

and the scope for maneuver they had during the transition. Next transition. the during had they maneuver for scope the and A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive: Being a Connected View of the Principles of Evidence and the the and of Evidence Principles the of View Connected a Being Inductive: and Ratiocinative ofLogic, A System –

the Mill’s method of difference. of method Mill’s the

(John W. Parker, 1843), 455ff. 1843), W. Parker, (John t epan aito i pirtzto o eeg scrt cnit of consists security energy of prioritization in variation explain to e

relat ions with Russia, and the influence vetting laws had on the on had laws vetting influence the and Russia, with ions 8

11

I control for the effects of fundamentals, fundamentals, of effects the for control I ad tutr o is ie constituent five its of structure and e

the theoretical context of the project, project, the of context theoretical the

countries on three main main three on countries countries;

,

continue with continue I provide the provide I td or rted CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 12 energy favored choices policy the policies, influencing closely and directly followed p preferred and available the influenced has transition, the of part as chosen vetting/lustration of kind and degree the through exemplified as past, the with coping of type that, is argue I What Russia. high through governments the between relations of intensity the measure also I available. readily is countries two these for data the since Republics, Slovak and Czech of case in government the in collaborators service secret measuring by this operationalize I policy. energy its in security prioritize to government the was likely less government, the in exponents regime former of number the ch laws vetting the between relation a is there that is test I that transition elite on hypothesis The countries. CEE the in public general of surveys representative numerous from data longitudinal extensive using government. the in force supplies energy to relevance of actor the when prioritized energy of aspect security the First, hypotheses: three following the test I effort this In thedifferencesfinallycomparison5)offer importin as ofdomesticas well energy prices. deman (domestic mix

ltcl hie i te nry policy. energy the in choices olitical Democracies Reckon with Former Regimes, Volume I: General Considerations General I: Volume Former Regimes, with Reckon Democracies ed., Kritz, J. Neil (n.d.); Case” Czech The Past: Communist the Overcoming “C Kopeček, Lubomír August 11,2010); (accessed (1989 Poland “Lust David, inHungary,” Vetting Competition: Political as “Lustration Ágnes and Munkácsi, Hack, Péter Barrett, Elizabeth (2003); approach” K. Williams, A. Szcserbiak, and B. Fowler, “Explaining lustration in Eastern Europe A post EuropeA Eastern in lustration “Explaining B. Fowler, and A.Szcserbiak, K. Williams, osen and the number of former regime exponents in the transition government. The higher higher The government. transition the in exponents regime former of number the and osen

- up and the former members of the regime’s security apparatus were excluded from from excluded were apparatus security regime’s the of members former the and up ration Laws in Action: The Motives and Evaluation of Lustration Policy in the Czech Republic and and Republic Czech in the Policy ofLustration Evaluation and Motives The Action: inLaws ration - 2001),” 2001),”

Justice as Prevention: Vetting Public Employees in Transitional Societies in Transitional Employees Public Prevention: as Vetting Justice Law & Social Inquiry &Social Law

ecpino etra threat, external of perception d structure) through comparing 4) energy mix type and its structure, and and structure, its and type mix energy 4) comparing through structure) d

I measure the developments developments the measure I

- ee stat level

28, no. 2 (Spring 2003): 387 2003): (Spring 2 28, no. ,

is present and concentrated among supporters of po of supporters among concentrated and present is 12

vst bten y ae onre’ oenet and governments countries’ case my between visits e In cases where lustration has been more thoroughly thoroughly more been has lustration where cases In reating a New Democratic System and the Problem of Problem the and System Democratic New a reating 9

ascribable to specific political or economic economic or political specific to ascribable in popular perceptions of external threat threat external of perceptions popular in

( Institute of Peace, 1995). Peace, of Institute States (United – 439, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1215775 http://www.jstor.org/stable/1215775 439, Transitional Justice: How Emerging How Emerging Justice: Transitional

(2007): 260 (2007):

security (and were less were (and security the share of former former of share the - communist politics communist – 307; Roman 307;

policy is policy .

litical litical CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 13 toandSlovakiasixHungaryand respectively. apart. drifting started republics Slovak and Czech as Federation Czechoslovak of years important two first the and Slovakia Republic, Czech of studies case detailed three with proceed I dissertation, this of section second the In restructuring. economic avoiding and pricing, energy competitive of effects the from shielding and quo status rent the cement or 1998) after Slovakia in partially and period, earlier the in Republic Czech in case the was (as competitiveness increase and transform it as role a of privatization the of effects The place. takes privatization the internalizebefore to easierare benefits,which its securityand energy of good public of provision of prioritization assetsPrivatization energycan hinder of asmajorenergywellprivatizationrestructuring. and consumers’ as assets’ energy both of sequencing and timing the through also captured is This prioritized. be short in industry on costs exerting means it if even prioritized be can security energy interests, their promoting I policy. energy hypoth in security of prioritization the influencing factors additional were country energy of concentration and type presence, that hypothesize I Finally, o Slovakiaprioritized(asobserved in be to likely were aims policy other changed, periodically or halted inconsequential, was lustration Russia

And into certain extent also Poland. also extent certain into And - esize that when incumbent industrial interests are de are interests industrial incumbent when that esize redy n eea, s bevd n zc Republic Czech in observed as general, in friendly can be either used to weaken the entrenched industrial interests and the reluctance to to reluctance the and interests industrial entrenched the weaken to used either be can

Chapter four is devoted to the detailed analysis of Czech Republic, chap Republic, Czech of analysis detailed the to devoted is four Chapter - run. If energy If run. Hungary, which I offer in four chapters. Chapter three offers details on details offers three Chapter chapters. four in offer I which Hungary,

-

intensive industry is concentrated, e concentrated, is industry intensive rHungary)

10

and policiesandwere moremuchRussia

energysecurity divestingcosts of by the - ekn politic seeking 13 - concentrated and face obstacles in obstacles face and concentrated ). In contrast, in countries where where countries in contrast, In ). the major energy consumers play consumers energy major the

nergy security is less likely to to likely less is security nergy - intensive industries in the the in industries intensive l rvtzr preferring privatizers al - friendly ters five five ters .

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW “n and “old” the between distinction the and wi was prioritization security energy The agenda. policy how s way of the prioritization high reflected Also place took made. sector energy was the of decision privatization time the at for hoped few only benefit additional Norw long a also included latter The links. diversification gas and oil both time over premium security energy high provided but time, the at sense economic little make T investmentsof Russiancompanies gas Norwegian of import the enabling connector gas build to decision the and interests, Russian with connected being as seen was Chemapol the to 1994 in refineries Czech the this privatize to of not decision examples the are prominent struggle Two way.” “Russian a actually been have would way” “Czech o privatization, the in part take to investment direct foreign allowing between been has Republic Czech in policy energy the in security of prioritization the to relating argument political prominent most The choicesparticipatithrough lasted sensitivity public recognized and known publicly was identity their coincidences fortunate of number u left mostly were they economy into moved they when prosecution, its secret of state former the phases While transition. initial the in affairs public on party former communist the former of and influence apparatus the security of rid get to strove Republic Czech consequence of a particularly As and Russia. regime, former the of wary extremely was Republic Czech the in Public Republic Czech he ng socialng wide ay, which contributed to aggregate lower prices of gas as compared with regional peers regional with compared as gas of prices lower aggregate to contributed which ay, - spread popular popular spread - democratic government, democratic r to allow the “Czech way” to prevail. Nonetheless, perception has been that the that been has perception Nonetheless, prevail. to way” “Czech the allow to r

,

the fear of Rus of fear on onde on r ability ir . mocraticwasseriouslypolicymakingcurtailed.

whic sia has helped Czech politicians invest into what seemed to to seemed what into invest politicians Czech helped has sia o iety nlec pbi plce ad nry security energy and policies public influence directly to

h followed in the latter period. T thelatterperiod. in followed h service rather than further expansion of Russian imports or or imports Russian of expansion further than rather 11

officers tried to influence their immunity from from immunity their influence to tried officers w eie bcm smwa blurred somewhat became elites ew”

lessened into some degree only during left during only degree some into lessened - ntouched. Still, thanks to a a to thanks Still, ntouched. term import contract with with contract import term he division of interests of division he e uiyi energy in curity

,

and while and ,

,

s the as w hich – – -

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 14 sequencethis as well as legislation, energy major through pushed governments two Dzurinda’s this, Despite Apis. shareholder main ex partner coalition a had membership, NATO and EU towards country steered explicitly and Russia with relations the cooled having Because similarcompanyHungaryroleequivalentto in assume never could company the but established, was SlovRusGas company trading gas man a sustainable rather than yourselfisation” “help wild in interested more were and 1994) 1991/1992 in periods two the for (except 1998 until elections free first the since power ener reasonable somewhat at attempts charge, in was government technocratic a when period, interim short a for Only elections. first the until Republic Czech in unlike Slovakia, in preserved was which elites Communist vis difference This government. maintained apparatus security the also allegedly and party communist the with connected people transition its of phase first the In Hungary. was Slovakia in situation The Slovakia divisionlines.theoriginalacross “power

(Bratislava: M.E.S.A. 10, 1999). 10, M.E.S.A. (Bratislava: Jana Cervenáková, Viktor Niznanský, and Ol’ga Reptová, Reptová, Ol’ga and ViktorNiznanský, Cervenáková, Jana - sharing” arrangements among both the politicians and their backing financial groups ran ran groups financial backing their and politicians the both among arrangements sharing” f h vr wd caiin f anti of coalition wide very the of

,

prioritization ofsecurityprioritization waspre - communist party SDĽ, with its ties to Russia through Deví through Russia to ties its with SDĽ, party communist “ 49 it column fifth

% privatization of the “strategic“ ene “strategic“ the of privatization % energy security

gy policies could be detected. Mečiar’s governments Mečiar’s detected. be could policies gy

uh os ta Ceh eulc and Republic, Czech than worse much

- à - ” i Ceh eulc a a was Republic Czech vis

n h gvrmn. zrna a t tlrt the tolerate to had Dzurinda government. the in

policy. During the last months of Mečiar’s rule a middle rule Mečiar’s last months the of During policy. - Mečiar forces, even Dzurinda’s government, while while government, Dzurinda’s even forces, Mečiar - – 12 empted.

Panrusgas.

From common toprivate From

full

oto oe te alaet n the and parliament the over control 14

a cash a

rgy assets, but but assets, rgy lso visible in the continuity of of continuity the in visible lso - stripping wild stripping

: 10 years of privatisation in Slovakia of privatisation years : 10 even even mainly rme ta in than grimmer , -

“privatization, n B n which were in were which ank and its and ank because of because junior junior free

” - CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 15 long the for vehicle Panrusgáz company intermediary Hungarian socialist the of months first the in 1994 1, October On large socialist subsequent the wa as diversification, it but Austria, to pipeline gas of construction the starting by security energy prioritized center reformist the transition, the after government first The incaseRussia,unlikerunof Czech didn’t thepolitical Republic, clearlyalong l party right by only priority policy lef the on especially Russia of fear absent of consequence a As legislation. lustration and justice transitional at attempts chaotic and isolated and response weak relatively for reason a also was This earlier. started economy the “normalization than life happier much citizens its allowed Hungary in regime communist the but , and b of case in than widespread less much were Hungary in Russia of fears public The Hungary connectionsclosercountries withRussiaprioritizingsecurityenergypreferring not and in policy. re taken priorities policyas well as particular) in Transpetrol company (oil companies energy to nominations political the SMER, ex by replaced was government second Dzurinda’s When Russia. to links alleged poli to benefit particularistic of means a as policy energy of use and policy energy in security of prioritization of lack illustrates overall Slovakia of case The

RosUkrEnergo, RosUkrEnergo, The “venture” companies used as front companies for Gazprom or its managers mas itsor managers Gazprom for frontas companies used companies “venture” The

- Czech Republic. The soviet invasion took place only dozen years earlier than in in than earlier years dozen only place took invasion soviet The Republic. Czech scale privatization of energy privatizationassets.scaleof

- - term intergovernmental gas import. Thus this majority Gazprom controlled Gazprom majority this Thus import. gas intergovernmental term era” Czechoslovakia, and the economic reforms an reforms economic the and Czechoslovakia, era”

- wing political elites. Despite the fact that the perception of fear of fear of perception the that fact the Despite elites. political wing

t affirmed the argument of ex of argument the affirmed - ieo h oiia pcrm eeg scrt a rae s a as treated was security energy spectrum, political the of side

energy

- liberal coalition government was more interested in in interested more was government coalition liberal 15

diversification was set was 13

- up and in the 1996 treaty named exclusive named treaty 1996 the in and up nvr followed never s tically connected cronies, with strong strong with cronies, connected tically - . - communist parties in post in partiescommunist iea Hr governmen Horn liberal Antall - right - Boross government Boross Antall hroomed: hroomed: d internationalization of internationalization d - - Boross government, government, Boross p ih contract a with up TurkmenRosGaz, TurkmenRosGaz, ines. oth Slovakia Slovakia oth - communist Russian t - transition transition

initiated -

CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 19 18 17 16 thepartyHungary.along linesin in interests Europe. Russia’s Central facilitating Russia with relations intensive fostered and priorities other had governments socialist the Russia, of “fear” upon acted and policy energy the in security right While governments. (center) the of policies between consistency exceptional showed Hungary of experience The reinstated. companies Russian and Russia with relations friendly socialist of return the With managers.Gazpromto of Orbán’s grew. family Rakhimkulov by curated imperium economic the and stronghold gained Panrusgas socialist the During one astheseatof Interpocom officials, transfe later Interprocom, Rakhimkulov. set was Interprocom, one, first The companies. front Gazprom important other of number a for place Hungar to gas natural of importer largest the became company

Foreign Policy Affairs ForeignPolicy Policy,” Energy Government’s Gyurcsány The Manner: in Hungarian “Diversification Makarov). by founded Florida, and (Cyprus Itera 26, 2012). September (accessed http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/gazprom 21, 2001, May Dmitriyeva) (Yelena Sheremet Vyacheslav boss Rem ofGazprom thedaughters and Chernomyrdin), Anit Baka (both Interhaz, Respublica, Ukrainian by regional role in its chronologically Followed sonsThe of Kohl inGermany. met when day Gorbachev same very The BC a Orbán, Orbán, a refinery business, attempted through a through attempted business, refinery - up in Budapest already in June 1989 June in already Budapest in up 17 first

became the vehicle for cash stripping of Gazprom and exporting assets from Russia. Russia. from assets exporting and Gazprom of stripping cash for vehicle the became 18 Rakhimkulov

government Power, energy, and the new Russian imperialism newthe Russian and energy, Power, was later joined by Eural Trans Gas headed by former communist official, as well well as official, communist former by headed Gas Trans Eural by joined later was 19

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(Praeger Security International, 2008); András Deák, Deák, András International, 2008); Security (Praeger and wageda and ossety mlmne plce prioritizing policies implemented consistently

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PREVIEW

THIS PREVIEW DOES NOT INCLUDE PAGES 15-215 CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 667 666 thesethetimewithinthroughout countries differently out played paths these Nonetheless transition. of paths their during countries these of policies energy shaping andinfluencing in role tremendous played as well as assets, valuable on and personal of role politically Euro of criteria political debts, their aspects alsosmallcountries energycases ofprompted policy, requirements of financing but by of pol The thespeedonlyimpacting not alsoofthekindsocietytransition buteconomy. in and restructuring, industrialto hurdle aor of, enginean eitherand policy,industrial of tool a wasalso foc transition the during policy Energy not. did other but security, energy their improve to measures active took countries some conditions new these Under change. policy rapid for opportunities rare provided and threats and allegiances War Cold the after transition economic and Political goals. and priorities issues, of number a of account take which policies devising of business the in are Governments muchishowthanobservationsdiscussedliterature. it in frequ less much is goals policy other over security energy of primacy time, over security energy their improve countries few only Since literature. der in the energyDirector, ExecutiveMaria securityIEA literature.view recently of van growing The overseen surprisingly been has countries for matters security energy much how and why, When, C OECD,” 388. OECD,” security. energy their having improved economies.” emerging the with cooperation

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2000

2001 2002

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Chart Chart

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Germany,Russia.or USA, Chart Chart

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0 (USD/TOE)* 105 125 145 165 185 205 64 65 85 1994 :Comp 1994 Czech Rep. Czech Hungary Slovakia 1995 arison of calculatedofarisonpriceimportedof gas Price Price calculated as quotiet ofVALUE(UN 1995 1996 Comparison Comparison of calculated prices comtrade)/VOLUME (Eurostat) Slovakia Hungary Rep. Czech 1996 Price Price of Imported Gas 1997 (calculated value/volume) USD/MTOEvalue/volume) (calculated 1997 1998 1998 262 1999

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 708 707 Chart Chart

Ibid. Ibid. 1998 / 4 1998 / 4 1999 / 1

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Ibid. Ibid.

73 72 : Natural Gas Residential:NaturalGas (pre Prices : Natural Gas Residential:NaturalGas Prices Hungary Poland Slovakia Hungary Poland Slovakia Gas Gas residential (ERRAprices pre Gas Gas residential (ERRAprices total)

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Chart of Industry Structure 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 83 0.00% 5.00% : Share of selected industrial: Sharetotal ofselected industrial sectors energy on consumption Share of Sectors on Final Energy Consumption of Industry 1990 Construction Leather and Textile Products, Wood and Wood Print, and Pulp Paper, and Tobacco Food Machinery and Equipment Transport and Petrochemical Chemical Quarrying) and Mining Minerals, Non-Metallic Metals, Non-Ferrous Steel, and (Iron mining and Metallurgy 1991 1992 1993

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 715 on the exports oftotal value Chart 10.00% 11.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00%

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 717 716 Chart the European Union. European the Europe.” Eastern

For methodology and distribution of sectors see sectorssee of distribution and methodology For Ibid. % of Total Exports 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00%

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 718 Chart 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Division, “UN Comtrade.” Division, “UN transformation “Supply, Explorer,

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 722 19 Chart Threat perception 6455 Lazarsfeld

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW Chart of Industry Structure

Axis Title 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 98 0.00% : Energy Share of sectors on final energy consumption of Industry 1990 Transport Equipmentand Machinery Chemical and Petrochemical Metallurgy and mining (Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Non-Metallic Minerals, Mining and Quarrying) Construction Paper,Pulp Print,and Wood and Wood Products,Textile and Leather Food and Tobacco - intensity of sectorsintensity different industrial 1991 1992 1993

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 724 exports68) on the (Slovakia) valueoftotal Chart Chart

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CEU eTD Collection PREVIEW 725 Chart 100% Explorer, “Supply, transformation, consumption consumption transformation, “Supply, Explorer,

Eurostat and European Commission, “Energy & Transport in Figures 2006: Part 2: Energy”; Eurostat Eurostat 2:Energy”; Part 2006: Figures in Transport & “Energy Commission, European and Eurostat 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0% 1990 101 Mining andMining Quarrying EquipmentTransport Machinery Non-Metallic Minerals SteelIron and : Distributionof Final Energy SK 1992 -

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