ENERGY SECURITY IN TRANSITION: PREVIEWCOPING WITH ENERGY IMPORT DEPENDENCE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA AND HUNGARY By Andrej Nosko A Doctoral Dissertation submitted to Central European University Department of Political Science In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Supervisor: Professor Béla Greskovits Budapest, Hungary 2013 CEU eTD Collection DECLARATION I hereby declare that no parts of this thesis have been accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions. This thesis contains no materials previously written and/or published by another PREVIEWperson, except where appropriate acknowledgment is made in the form of bibliographical reference. Andrej Nosko CEU eTD Collection ii ABSTRACT In this dissertation I study why countries under comparable international conditions prioritize energy security differently. Why do their domestic responses of coping with structural position of PREVIEWenergy import dependence vary over time, and what explains the type of variation and its timing? By answering these questions, this dissertation contributes to the broader research field on temporal and spatial variation of domestic responses to comparable international conditions. In order to understand the factors of prioritizing security in energy policy, and their facilitating and inhibiting conditions in countries in transition, through case selection, I isolate effects of fundamentals and external factors. As I observe in the Central and East European countries in transition, policies enhancing energy security are prioritized when three aspects coincide and interact: When popular perception of threat, which can plausibly be connected to the energy supply, is high and concentrated among supporters of ruling parties; when former elites who can draw on personal links with the perceived source of threat, and thus can dampen the effects of threat, are removed from power; and when incumbent industrial interests are de-concentrated and face obstacles in promoting their interests. I also argue that specific timing of change of ownership lowering the control of government over energy assets i.e. privatization, was an obstacle to prioritizing policies aiming to increasing energy security. The broader theoretical contribution of this dissertation consists of argument for reframing the energy policy debate by bringing back domestic politics, and by contributing to understanding of security policy prioritization during transition. Energy security, albeit important, is only one of the aspects that are being pursued by governments. Through this project I also lay the foundations for CEU eTD Collection broader conceptual model for analyzing energy security, within more inclusive context, as one, but not the only one of the energy policy priorities. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Béla Greskovits, my supervisor, mentor, and friend whose support, intellectual stimulus and understanding was priceless in enabling me to finish this research endeavor. I am grateful to Erin Jenne and Andreas Goldthau, who joined my supervisory panel, when the train was already rolling, but whose comments and guidance provided very much needed energy and impetus in the advanced stages of my research. PREVIEWI have benefited from the generous support of Central European University, the doctoral scholarship at the Department of Political Science, and the Annual Doctoral Conferences. These, together with the supervisory panels, offered fresh feedback on many versions of my drafts since 2006. I would like to thank fellow members of the Political Economy Research Group (PERG) who have been perhaps the toughest critics of early drafts of most of my chapters. I am thankful to Goran Buldioski at the Think Tank Fund, for his support and understanding as I balanced the workload at the Fund, and the PhD research at the University. I thank Joaquim Nunes de Almeida, for his understanding of my urge to finish this research; his friendship and guidance in my first-hand experience of policymaking processes of the European Union have been truly rewarding. I am indebted to my dear friend and mentor, late Olda Černý, who got me fascinated by energy security. I would like to thank Július Horváth, Stefano Guzzini and Svante E. Cornell, it was thanks to their guidance in my early studies that I have set on path of studying energy security. I am grateful to Anita Orbán, Jiří Schneider, Karel Hirman, Urban Rusnák, and Václav Bartuška, who at different stages provided their help through comments, recommendations and information without which this dissertation would look very different. I am thankful to Petr Lang, Petr Binhack, Peter Ševce, Jakub Jaroš, Michal Thim, and Kevin Rosner, with whom I was able to test some of my early arguments. I am thankful to Sanja Pesek, for the extensive discussions on transitional justice, which inspired part of my explanatory model. In collecting the vast amount of data I have tremendously benefited from the help of my research assistants. My sister Vlasta Nosková, Jr. was my first and the most diligent assistant, I cannot thank her enough for her meticulous cross-checking of data on Czech and Slovak ministers in multiple databases. I am grateful to Mirka Holubíková for being my extended presence in Czech Republic and scanning hundreds of archival articles in the Czech National Library. Gergely Nagy has been my Hungarian eyes and ears, and I thank him for his help in searching and cross-checking of Hungarian primary news sources, based on my often erratic and incomplete inklings. I appreciate help of Beáta Jurigová who helped with searching and collecting digital news sources in Czech Republic and Slovakia, and Eszter-Petronella Soós whose help was instrumental to researching links of Hungarian elites to the past communist regime. I am thankful to the staff at the CEU library, and especially Ivett Molnár who took initiative and connected me with Péter Hegedűs at TÁRKI and Károly Schmidt at E.ON Földgáz Trade both of whom I thank for providing me with their assistance in accessing threat perception survey, and gas price data. CEU eTD Collection The most special thanks are due to my family: Vica, my wife, has been tremendously supportive in managing the household whenever I was hidden in my research cell, my daughter Ica waited patiently for me to finish up the writing so that I can read with her. I thank my mom, sister and Ľubo, for all their help and emotional support. I dedicate this dissertation to the memory of my late father, Ján Nosko, a tragic victim of transition. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration ............................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. iv PREVIEWTable of Contents ...................................................................................................................... v List of Tables, Figures and Charts ..........................................................................................vii Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................x Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Puzzle ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 Research Question .................................................................................................................................. 6 Structure of the dissertation and overview of chapters ..................................................................... 8 Chapter 1. Theoretical Contribution and Review of the State of Art ...................................... 15 1.1. Research Question and Puzzle ..................................................................................................... 15 1.2. Definition of Energy Security and Theoretical Discussion ..................................................... 18 1.3. Understanding the Variation in Policy Priorities....................................................................... 27 1.4. Rival Explanations ......................................................................................................................... 43 1.5. Case Selection ................................................................................................................................. 49 1.6. Puzzle............................................................................................................................................... 50 1.7. Research Model in Detail .............................................................................................................. 52 Chapter 2. Explanatory Variables Compared .......................................................................... 57 2.1. Influence of Threat Perception on Security Prioritization in Energy Policy ........................ 57 2.2. Ruling Elites’ Relations with Russia ............................................................................................ 66 2.3. Concentration of Energy-Intensive Export-Oriented