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Today's Top Research Idea Market Snapshot UPL: Adding Rynaxypyr

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Today's Top Research Idea Market Snapshot UPL: Adding Rynaxypyr 9 March 2021 ASIAMONEY Brokers Poll 2020 (India) Today’s top research idea UPL: Adding Rynaxypyr ahead of time in the kitty ❖ UPL has announced a long-term strategic collaboration with FMC Corporation for Rynaxypyr, which allows UPL access to key markets prior to the patent expiry and to commercialize Rynaxypyr Active: FMC's leading insecticide. In CY19, the global Rynaxypyr market was valued at USD1.6b (v/s the global Crop Protection market of USD59.8b). The market is expected to expand at a Market snapshot moderate CAGR (4.4%) over CY18-25 and reach USD2.1b by CY25-end. ❖ The pact also allows UPL to launch Rynaxypyr formulations with its own Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.% Sensex 50,441 0.1 5.6 trademark and combination molecule in key markets, thereby enabling the Nifty-50 14,956 0.1 7.0 company to add a new core molecule to its portfolio. Rynaxypyr has a 2.7% Nifty-M 100 24,149 0.3 15.9 market share in the global Crop Protection market. Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.% ❖ As per an industry source, toll manufacturing and supply of Rynaxypyr to FMC S&P 500 3,821 -0.5 1.7 Nasdaq 12,609 -2.4 -2.2 in India will provide UPL with a INR7-8b - a long-term growth opportunity. We FTSE 100 6,719 1.3 4.0 maintain our Neutral view with a TP of INR631/share. DAX 14,381 3.3 4.8 Hang Seng 11,015 -2.5 2.6 Nikkei 225 28,743 -0.4 4.7 Research covered Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.% Brent (US$/Bbl) 68 -2.2 32.6 Cos/Sector Key Highlights Gold ($/OZ) 1,684 -1.0 -11.3 UPL Adding Rynaxypyr ahead of time in the kitty Cu (US$/MT) 9,019 1.2 16.4 Almn (US$/MT) 2,162 -0.7 9.5 EcoScope Few macro lessons from the 3QFY21 corporate results Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.% USD/INR 73.3 0.3 0.3 India Life Insurance Private players’ Individual WRP grows ~23% YoY in Feb’21 USD/EUR 1.2 -0.6 -3.0 Healthcare IPM growth moderates further in Feb’21 USD/JPY 108.9 0.5 5.5 YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTD chg 10 Yrs G-Sec 6.2 -0.01 0.4 Piping hot news 10 Yrs AAA Corp 7.2 0.01 0.6 Flows (USD b) 8-Mar MTD CY21 Life insurance industry bucks recent slump, registers 21% growth in FIIs -0.20 0.55 5.74 February DIIs 0.07 -0.23 -4.18 India’s life insurance sector registered a strong new business premium (NBP) Volumes (INRb) 8-Mar MTD* YTD* Cash 648 789 826 growth of 21% in February, bucking its recent trend where it registered either F&O 34,077 43,514 40,009 tepid or negative growth since November. The NBP which is a key metric to gauge Note: *Average the performance of life insurer grew to Rs22,425.21 crore in February for India’s … Chart of the Day: UPL (Adding Rynaxypyr ahead of time in the kitty) Expect global Rynaxypyr market to grow at 4.4% CAGR over CY19-25E Global Rynaxypyr market (USDb) 2.1 1.5 1.6 2017 2019 2025 Source: Industry, MOFSL Research Team ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. In the news today Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link 1 2 Life insurance industry bucks DoT demands Rs 21,919 crore as upfront payment for recent slump, registers 21% spectrum from telcom companies growth in February The telecom department has sent notices to Reliance Jio , Bharti India’s life insurance sector Airtel and Vodafone Idea, demanding around Rs 21,919 crore as registered a strong new business upfront payment for spectrum bought in the just ended auctions. The premium (NBP) growth of 21% in Department of Telecommunications, in separate notices, has sought February, bucking its recent trend Rs 15,019.84 crore from Jio, Rs 6323.98 crore from Airtel and Rs where it registered either tepid or 574.65 from Vodafone Idea, as upfront payment if the telcos choose negative growth since November. the spread their dues over 16 year.… The NBP which is a key metric to gauge the performance of life insurer grew to Rs22,425.21 cr… 3 4 Health chain Aster plans $400 Govt nets Rs 53,346 crore mn bond sale, India from Vivad Se Vishwas expansion scheme till February 22 Aster DM Healthcare Ltd., a Dubai- 5 The government has realised Rs based operator of hospitals and 53,346 crore through direct tax pharmacies that’s expanding LPG price double in 7 years; across India, is revisiting a dispute resolution scheme Vivad Se tax collection on petrol, potential sale of dollar bonds after Vishwas till February 22, Parliament diesel jumps 459%: Oil pushing back a planned issuance was informed on Monday. To a Minister Dharmendra last year. Aster, which runs 26 query in the Lok Sabha on whether Pradhan the government has been able to hospitals and hundreds of clinics The country's non-basmati rice achieve the objective of settling and pharmacies in the Gulf and exports have increased to Rs income tax cases after launching India, will seek to issue about 26,058 crore during April-January the Vivad se Vishwas scheme,… $400 million of securities … 2020-21 as against Rs 11,543 crore in the same period last fiscal, the commerce ministry said 7 on Thursday. Agricultural and 6 Processed Food Products Export BPCL Trust to sell up to 4% of its CIL approves 32 mining Development Authority (APEDA) shares projects involving Chairman M Angamuthu said BPCL Trust for Investment in incremental investment of Rs several measures have been Shares (BPCL Trust) will sell up to 47,000 crore taken in terms of ensuring safety and hygiene while ensuring that 4% of its shares in state-owned Coal India has approved a record rice exports continue energy company Bharat 32 mining projects this fiscal at uninterrupted… Petroleum Corporation Ltd an investment of Rs 47,300 (BPCL) on Tuesday through a crore. While 24 of the 32 are block deal, according to the expansion of the existing terms of the deal seen by Mint. projects, eight are new The Trust will sell up to 86.77 greenfield projects. Combined million shares or 4% of the… peak capacity of these projects… 9 March 2021 2 8 March 2021 Company Update | Sector: Agri UPL BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 50,441 14,956 CMP: INR630 TP: INR631 Neutral Adding Rynaxypyr ahead of time in the kitty ◼ UPL has announced a long-term strategic collaboration with FMC Corporation. It will toll manufacture and supply Rynaxypyr to FMC in India. FMC will supply the active Bloomberg UPLL IN ingredient (AI) to UPL depending on the market. We have analyzed the market size, Equity Shares (m) 765 use of Rynaxypyr, and impact of the agreement on UPL. M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 481.1 / 6.6 ◼ 52-Week Range (INR) 636 / 240 UPL announces a long-term collaboration with FMC for Rynaxypyr 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 19/-2/-12 ◼ 12M Avg Val (INR M) 3674 UPL has announced a long-term strategic collaboration with FMC Corporation, Free float (%) 72.2 a leading global agricultural sciences company. ◼ The pact allows UPL access to key markets prior to the patent expiry and to Financials Snapshot (INR b) commercialize Rynaxypyr Active: FMC's leading insecticide. Y/E MARCH FY21E 2022E 2023E Sales 378.7 411.8 443.4 ◼ As per the agreement, UPL will toll manufacture and supply Rynaxypyr to FMC EBITDA 82.3 92.6 102.0 in India. FMC will supply the AI to UPL depending on the market. Adj. PAT 31.7 37.5 43.9 ◼ The deal adds a key portfolio of products to UPL's business and supports FMC EBITDA Margin (%) 21.7 22.5 23.0 in maximizing the penetration of this important AI. Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 41.4 49.0 57.4 EPS Gr. (%) 19.0 18.2 17.2 ◼ Early access to Rynaxypyr formulations in key markets allows UPL to provide BV/Sh. (INR) 241 425 495 farmers with more sustainable product choices. Ratios Net D:E 1.3 1.0 0.8 RoE (%) 18.2 18.8 18.9 Rynaxypyr accounts for 2.7% of the global Crop Protection market RoCE (%) 10.6 11.3 12.3 ◼ Rynaxypyr AI was first registered in the Philippines in Jun’07 and in 19 Payout (%) 20.0 20.0 20.0 countries in CY08, including the US, Canada, and Australia. Since then, its Valuations approved uses have expanded to over 120 countries. In doing so, it has passed P/E (x) 15.2 12.9 11.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 7.6 6.6 rigorous regulatory reviews over the past decade. A major regulatory Div. Yield (%) 1.1 1.6 1.8 reassessment is slated to occur in the EU, US, Canada, and Japan within the FCF Yield (%) 5.8 9.9 11.4 next few years. Shareholding pattern (%) ◼ The molecule was launched in CY07 by DuPont. It had to divest this product As On Dec-20 Sep-20 Dec-19 when it merged with Dow Chemicals due to regulatory issues. FMC acquired Promoter 27.9 27.9 27.9 the AI from DuPont in CY17 and launched the same in CY18.
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