Equity Research INDIA August 18, 2020 Virtual Conference 2020 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and Day 2 Highlights distributor of this report We hosted 15 large cap corporates at I-Sec Virtual Conference 2020 on August 18, 2020. Infosys (INFO: IN) ITC (ITC: IN) Sun Pharma (SUNP: IN) Ultratech Cement (UTCEM: IN) Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL: IN) Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP: IN) United Spirits (UNSP: IN) Lupin (LPC: IN) Hindalco (HNDL: IN) UPL (UPLL: IN) United Breweries (UBBL: IN) ACC (ACC: IN) Voltas (VOLT: IN) Dr Lal Path (DLPL: IN) Kajaria Ceramics (KJC: IN) Research Analysts: I-Sec Equity Research [email protected] Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Virtual Conference August 18, 2020 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENT Infosys (HOLD, CMP: Rs968) ......................................................................................... 3 Sun Pharma (BUY, CMP: Rs526) ................................................................................... 4 Ultratech Cement (BUY, CMP: Rs4,169) ....................................................................... 6 Godrej Consumer Products (ADD, CMP: Rs691) ......................................................... 7 Aurobindo Pharma (ADD, CMP: Rs872) ....................................................................... 8 United Spirits (ADD, CMP: Rs589) ................................................................................ 9 Lupin (HOLD, CMP: Rs981) .......................................................................................... 10 Hindalco (BUY, CMP: Rs196) ....................................................................................... 12 UPL (BUY, CMP: Rs500) ............................................................................................... 13 United Breweries (UNRATED, CMP: Rs1,004) ............................................................ 14 ACC (BUY, CMP: Rs1,432) ........................................................................................... 15 Voltas (HOLD, CMP: Rs645) ......................................................................................... 16 Dr Lal Path (BUY, CMP: Rs1,881) ................................................................................ 17 Kajaria Ceramics (HOLD, CMP: Rs422) ...................................................................... 19 2 Virtual Conference August 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Infosys (HOLD, CMP: Rs968) Hardik Sangani (+91 22 6637 7504) [email protected] Price chart In the past six months, on account of Covid-19 crisis, spends across sectors have 1,100 1,000 come down significantly. However, as clients are looking to save on spending, they 900 are looking for vendors who can help them with their cost takeout initiatives. 800 700 (Rs) 600 As the ongoing pandemic is resulting in increased WFH environment, services 500 pertaining to cloud and cybersecurity are becoming key areas of spending. 400 300 Infosys’ focus on localisation initiatives in the US, building six digital centres have helped it meaningfully de-risk itself from visa-related issues as currently majority of Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 headcount is not visa dependent. Even in a tough environment, healthy orderbook, recent large deal wins and a robust pipeline give comfort about the company being able to meet its revenue guidance range (0-2% growth in CC terms in FY21). In light of the ongoing pandemic, there has been a greater push to perform work more remotely. With utilisation and quality of work not getting significantly affected, clients may be open to greater offshoring going forward. Infosys has a well laid out capital allocation policy with 85% FCF to be returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company has capacity to use both cash post shareholder distribution and cash in balance sheet to do acquisition which complements its digital strategy. Amongst other things, tuck-in acquisition would be a focal point as it is easier to integrate and targeted digital capabilities can be acquired. (Recent acquisition in space of cloud-based SAAS services providers, design studios have helped Infosys expand its offerings in various geos and segments) Discretionary costs such as travel shall gradually inch up as economies open albeit at a slower pace. Onsite utilisation is largely at the same level as Q4FY20. Offshore utilisation was meaningfully affected in Q4FY20 to early Q1FY21; however, it improved later. Hiring is still low as the company already has a bench which can take up incremental demand. It has not resorted to laying-off people due to the pandemic; however, performance related involuntary attrition in normal course and pyramid optimisation exercise continues. Vendor consolidation is the key trend picking up in current environment as clients look to engage with larger vendors who are amongst industry leaders and have end-to-end capabilities in place to help both legacy and digital part of the business. 3 Virtual Conference August 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Sun Pharma (BUY, CMP: Rs526) Sriraam Rathi (+91 22 6637 7574) [email protected] Vinay Bafna (+91 22 6637 7339) [email protected] Price chart Acquired Ranbaxy in 2015. Gradually improved the productivity of the combined 800 business. 700 600 o MR productivity has improved significantly post integration. 500 (Rs) o So the overall profitability has been reasonable. 400 300 o Synergies have been achieved very well. 200 o Profitability for most markets acquired from Ranbaxy would have improved. Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 EM and ROW o As a portfolio are reasonably profitable. o Don’t expect a massive delta in the profitability from the current levels. Investment in specialty business is dragging the profitability. Its loss making at the moment (ex-Absorica and Levulan). o R&D is another expense/investment that is not generating any revenue or profitability for few years. o As revenue from specialty grows, there will be operating leverage from the segment since most of the cost is baked into the business. (Marketing, branding, HR, etc.). o Expect specialty to ramp up in the next few years. o Peak sales from the specialty product would happen in the first 4-5years. o China and EU are entered via partnership. Hence, those costs would be borne by partner. o Japan – Ilumya preparing for launch. Cost will be borne by the company. Front end set up came with Pola pharma. IL-17/23 market is very small at the moment as most patients are treated using the 1st generation or small molecule products. Hence, we need to track the incidence of the ailment. o Rx shifting to Absorica LD remains slow as the pandemic fear keeps the physical interaction low. Will not be able to shift all the Rx by Dec’20 as time is short. o Ilumya has done well. Feedback from doctors and patients is positive. It is doing well in EU and US. No plans to dramatically increase the field force in US. Dusa sales force are not common with that of Ilumya as the indications are different. However, Odomzo can have some synergy with Dusa sales force. India o Digital initiatives are completely dependent on how the market opens up from the lockdown. o 90% of the field force is active at the moment. 4 Virtual Conference August 18, 2020 ICICI Securities o Some part of the cost saving was due to lack of travelling, branding promotion. All the saving won’t sustain for a long time. o More OPDs are operating at the moment but the patient flow is still low as the pandemic fear is still present. o First few weeks were difficult to adopt, but they are now comfortable with the digital medium. EU o The business was largely due to Ranbaxy acquisition. Present is UK, Germany, France and other larger markets. o Trying to bring in more differentiated products wherever possible. Dubai consolidation is being done at the subsidiary levels. It should not impact financials in any manner. Most of the data requested by SEBI was pertaining to the distribution set up of Aditya Medisales and FCCB issues. Halol’s relative importance in terms of financial terms has reduced over the past few years. Have 19 ANDAs pending from this plant. Taro’s pipeline has been built post acquisition. Its quality of products remains differentiated. General maintenance capex is 1200-1500crs in a year. 50-55% API that is manufactured is utilised in-house. Remaining part is outsourced to companies in India, China and EU. o Changing API vendors is a time consuming process. 5 Virtual Conference August 18, 2020 ICICI Securities Ultratech Cement (BUY, CMP: Rs4,169) Krupal Maniar, CFA (+91 22 6637 7254) [email protected] Dharmesh Shah (+91 22 6637 7480) [email protected] Price chart Demand: Capacity utilisation stood at ~60-65% in Jul’20. Rural / semi-urban 5,150 demand is likely to remain strong during FY21; while urban and infrastructure 4,750 4,350 demand are likely to recover during H2FY21 with return of migrant workers. 3,950 (Rs) Prices: Cement prices have seen seasonal price correction of 4-5% QoQ in Jul’20 3,550 with the onset of monsoon. 3,150 2,750 Cost saving initiatives: UTCEM is targeting 10% fixed costs rationalisation from FY21 by cutting discretionary spends, re-negotiating existing contracts etc which Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 could provide cost savings of ~Rs5bn p.a. (Rs60/te). For Century assets, management maintained its guidance that ~84% of the production would be transitioned