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Værdiansættelse Af SAS AB - Et Omstruktureret Selskab På Det Nordiske Luftfartsmarked

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Værdiansættelse Af SAS AB - Et Omstruktureret Selskab På Det Nordiske Luftfartsmarked Copenhagen Business School Kandidatafhandling 2011 Cand.merc.aud Institut for Regnskab og Revision Værdiansættelse af SAS AB - Et omstruktureret selskab på det Nordiske luftfartsmarked Udarbejdet af Vejleder Osman Kayhan Jens O. Elling Nicolai Frederik S. Carøe Afleveringsdato: 24. oktober 2011 Samlet antal anslag incl. figurer: 259.313 Samlet antal sider (faktisk/normal) (116/114) Executive Summary The main purpose of the dissertation is to determine the value of SAS AB as a company with its primary operations in the Nordic region. Through analysis, the dissertation will further identify the drivers that have a significant effect on the value of the ongoing restructuring. Through recent years, SAS AB has shown bad results, and in connection hereof it has been necessary to make a capital contribution in order to maintain future operations. As a further action, SAS has initiated the retrenchment program Core SAS, improved profitability in operations and SAS expects further positive effects in the future. With a sector that is materially affected by macroeconomic factors as well as by fierce competition, the dissertation has analyzed both the surrounding environment and SAS internally in order to establish the basis for the future expectations, and thereby SAS’ value. In the strategic analysis, PEST-analysis, Porters Five Forces and Porters Generic Strategies are used to identify the influence of the surrounding environment on aviation and SAS’ ability to operate herein. In this connection, the significant factors are defined as being the close relation between development of GDP and the number of sold seats per kilometer (RPK). Further, the distribution between Premium and Leisure tickets is examined and thereby the earnings - Yield. At the cutoff date 17 August 2011, expectations for the future are positive, which is converted into an expectation of increased RPK and Yield. Through SAS’ cost saving strategy, the dissertation finds future reductions in Unit Cost. SAS is defined as ”Stuck-in-the- middle” as they attempt to deliver a product that they cannot live up to, and this has an effect on SAS’ reputation and their competitive strength. Through the financial analysis, the correlation between the utilized KPIs and the profitability in aviation is analyzed. SAS’ approach of cost saving is assessed as the only solution, as increases in both Yield and ASK result in reduced Load Factor, which in the end results in declining RASK compared to Unit Cost. The financial analysis examines the material items in SAS’ financial statements in order to forecast the future effects of the IAS 19 conversion, fleet structure and the accounting treatment of leasing, respectively. With an analysis of future CAPEX needs and risks of lawsuits, it gives the dissertation an off-set for preparation of budget and hereafter an estimation of SAS’ future free cash flow. The determination of value is based on three different theories as the determination is made with the capital based model, the relative values model and the substantive value model. All three theories use the results discovered in the previous sections. The conclusion of the objective determination of value is that SAS, if future operations can be maintained, is determined at between SEK/Share 12.62 and 13.33, and in case of immediate liquidation at a value of SEK/Share 2,29. Værdiansættelse af SAS AB – Osman Kayhan Et omstruktureret selskab på det Nordiske luftfartsmarked Nicolai F. S. Carøe Indholdsfortegnelse 1. Indledning ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 1.1 Problemformulering ................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Formål ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Afgrænsning................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Metode............................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.5 Kildekritik....................................................................................................................................................... 11 2. Virksomhedsbeskrivelse .....................................................................................................................................12 2.1 SAS historie. ...................................................................................................................................................12 2.2 Vision, mission & strategi .............................................................................................................................13 2.3 Ejerforhold og koncernstruktur....................................................................................................................16 2.3.1 Skandinavien Airlines.............................................................................................................................17 2.3.2 Widerøe .................................................................................................................................................. 18 2.3.3 Blue1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Peer Group.................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.4.1 Norwegian Air Shuttle. ...........................................................................................................................19 2.4.2 Finnair:...................................................................................................................................................20 2.4.3 Star Alliance...........................................................................................................................................20 2.5 Introduktion til Luftfarts KPI’er ...................................................................................................................21 2.5.1 ASK ..........................................................................................................................................................21 2.5.2 RPK..........................................................................................................................................................21 2.5.3 Load Faktor............................................................................................................................................ 22 2.5.4 RASK ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 2.5.5 Unit Cost................................................................................................................................................. 22 2.5.6 Yield........................................................................................................................................................ 22 3. Strategisk analyse............................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1. Makroøkonomisk analyse – PEST .............................................................................................................. 24 3.1.1. Politiske forhold .................................................................................................................................... 24 3.1.2 Økonomiske forhold .............................................................................................................................. 27 3.1.3 Sociokulturelle forhold .......................................................................................................................... 32 3.1.4 Teknologiske forhold ............................................................................................................................. 34 3.1.5 Sammenfatning PEST-analyse .............................................................................................................. 36 3.2. Mikroøkonomisk analyse – Porters five forces.......................................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Kundernes forhandlingsmagt................................................................................................................ 37 3.2.2 Leverandørernes forhandlingsmagt .....................................................................................................40 3.2.3 Substituerende produkter ..................................................................................................................... 43 3.2.4 Indgangsbarrierer.................................................................................................................................. 45 3.2.5 Konkurrenceintensitet........................................................................................................................... 47 Kandidatafhandling 2011 CBS – Cand.merc.aud. 1 af 121 Værdiansættelse af SAS AB – Osman Kayhan Et omstruktureret selskab på det Nordiske luftfartsmarked Nicolai F. S. Carøe 3.2.6
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