Morning Comments
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mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego Friday, June 4, 2021 Morning Comments Equity Market, Poland Equity Research Contacts Michał Marczak +48 22 438 24 01 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 Jakub Szkopek +48 22 438 24 03 Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05 Paweł Szpigiel +48 22 438 24 06 Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 Piotr Poniatowski +48 22 438 24 09 Aleksandra Szklarczyk +48 22 438 24 04 DJIA 34,577 -0.07% FTSE 100 7,064 -0.61% Copper (LME) 9,789 -3.54% S&P 500 4,193 -0.36% WIG20 2,252 +0.85% Crude Oil (Brent) 70.91 +0.16% NASDAQ 13,615 -1.03% BUX 47,423 +1.47% USD/PLN 3.676 +0.70% DAX 15,633 +0.19% PX 1,175 +0.08% EUR/PLN 4.459 +0.04% CAC 40 6,508 -0.21% PLBonds10 1.845 -0.028 EUR/USD 1.2127 -0.69% Daily Briefing Equity Market WIG Index Membership After June Shuffle GPW Benchmark announced that following the trading session on June 18, there will be a revision concerning i.a. WIG20, mWIG40, sWIG80, WIG30 indices portfolios. WIG20/WIG30: No changes mWIG40: In: Asbis, Mabion Out: Echo Investment, GTC sWIG80: In: AC, Action, Echo Investment, GTC, PCF Group, ZCh Police Out: Asbis, ATM Grupa, BoomBit, Harper, Mabion, Sygnity Changes are mostly coherent with our estimation we have released two weeks ago on Friday, May 21 (Polish version, English version). Full composition of new indices with share of each company are available here. (P. Poniatowski) BNP Paribas Polska ABB on BNP Paribas Polska completed Buy – 2021-04-19 Bank informed that ABB was successful and shares presenting 5.07% of capital share were sold by Target price: PLN 90.00 BNP Paribas SA (1.26%) and Rabobank International Holding (3.81%). After transaction BNP should hold 87.44% of BNP Paribas Polska. We remind that KNF set freefloat requirement at 25% until the end of 2023, so it’s very likely that parent company of BNP Paribas Polska will sell another chunk of its polish holdings in future. BNP Paribas Polska is our top pick among smaller banks and we believe that improved liquidity will help bank shares to better reflect the fundamental value in long term, Our target price is PLN 90 per share. (M. Konarski, M. Lemańczyk) PKN Orlen BALTIC pipe construction halted in Denmark Hold – 2021-03-25 Concern over the impact on protected mice and bat species has halted construction in Denmark of Target price: PLN 60.64 Baltic Pipe, a pipeline connecting Poland with Norwegian gas fields, Danish grid operator Energinet said on Thursday. The suspension followed the rescinding of an environmental permit by a public PGNiG appeals committee. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency had given the permit before it Accumulate – 2021-04-09 was sufficiently clarified if the animals would be protected during the construction, according to Target price: PLN 6.84 Energinet, which is building the pipeline in Denmark. The environmental agency now needed to conduct further studies to asses whether the pipeline project would destroy or harm breeding grounds for the protected animals, the appeals committee said. Energinet said it would cease construction work until the necessary permits had been obtained. The environmental permit for the 900-kilometre (560-mile) pipeline, designed to reduce Poland's reliance on Russian gas, was originally given in July 2019. The gas link was initially expected to be completed in 2022, but it was not immediately clear whether the construction halt would delay the project. (K. Kliszcz) Astarta Shares Buy-Back Programme Overweight – 2021-04-26 The Board of the Directors in accordance with Resolution No. 12 of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of the Company adopted on 28 May 2021 is authorised to repurchase shares in the capital of the Company up to a maximum of 12,500,000 shares, being 50% of the currently issued and paid up share capital, for a purchase price per share of up to PLN 125.00. The Buyback is valid for a period of eighteen months starting as of 28 May, 2021. The Company shall be authorized to repurchase up to 25% of the average daily volume of shares of the Company traded. (P. Poniatowski) mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego TIM May 2021 Sales Update Overweight – 2020-12-08 TIM likely generated standalone revenue of PLN 101.5m in May 2021 after a 33.4% increase from the comparable year-ago period. By segment, monthly online sales were up by 45.4% at 75.5m and offline sales grew 7.5% to PLN 25.9m. On average, daily revenue in May amounted to PLN 3.98m online and PLN 1.37m offline. When it comes to base effects, in 2020 the monthly revenues of TIM did not seem to suffer even during lockdown periods, with working day-adjusted sales up 11% in April, 28% in May, and 4% in June. The growth in May sales exceeded our expectations, and it indicates a positive surprise in Q2’21 profits. With 50% sales growth in April, 33% in May, a conservative estimate of ca. 20% (keep in mind low base in June’20), and fast growing 3LP sales, Q2’21 Group’s revenue should exceed >300m PLN, and EBITDA PLN >25m. Moreover, with current EURPLN rate, reported pre-tax profit should be supported by ca. PLN 3m FX effect, and ~double y/y (PLN >20m). TIM remains a top pick for us, and looking at the strong ytd results our FY2021 earnings expectations for the Company might be due for an upward revision. (P. Poniatowski) Monthly sales (PLN m) Avg daily sales (PLN m, working-day adj.) 120 4.50 100 4.00 3.50 80 3.00 60 2.50 2.00 40 1.50 20 1.00 0.50 0 0.00 online'19 online'20 online'21 online offline offline'19 offline'20 offline'21 Source: TIM, mBank Source: TIM, mBank 2 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego More News Banking Polish banking sector recorded a PLN 2.44 bln combined net profit in April, up from PLN 1.03 bln net profit in April 2020, putting the 4M take to PLN 4.35 bln, central bank NBP data show. WSE-listed banks suffered a 24% q/q increase in the number of CHF lawsuits in Q1, to ca. 36.6k, according to data collected by PAP. Banks may now be less eager to slow down the CHF loan-related court proceedings after the recent verdict of a Warsaw court designated for dealing with CHF loans, which stated that payments of capital instalments should be suspended for the time of the proceedings in situations where a mortgage holder has already paid to the bank more than they have borrowed, lawyer Marcin Szamanski believes. Moreover, courts could be now more inclined to suspend instalment payments also in cases where the borrower has not yet paid off the lender, peer Agnieszka Plejewska adds. The court, however, openly stated injunctions in the latter scenario would be unjustified, lawyer Pawel Litwinski representing bank Santander BP notes. (Rzeczpospolita) CI Games CI Games is enjoying higher pre-sales of its newest game "Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2" in comparison to levels recorded when the first part of the game was released, the company wrote in a press release. Marketing budgets of these two games are comparable, but production costs of the second part are "slightly" lower, CEO Marek Tyminski said as cited in the release. CO2 Allowances Poland sold 2.6 mln European CO2 emission allowances EUA at ca. EUR 51.5 apiece at an auction held by the European exchange EEX, EEX said. Cyfrowy Polsat Cyfrowy Polsat's mobile telephony arm Polkomtel was obliged by consumer protection office UOKiK to pay compensations to clients for irregularities related to premium text message services, UOKiK said in a release. e-commerce Some 24% of Poles plan to increase online spending in the coming months, while 58% think their spending levels will remain unchanged, according to a survey conducted by researcher IQS for the daily Rzeczpospolita. Only 5% declared they want to cut their online spending. (Rzeczpospolita) GTC GTC will decide on hiking capital via a private placement issue of up to 97,111,024 E-series shares, draft resolutions for the GM slates for June 29 show. Introl Introl will pay out PLN 0.46 DPS from 2020 profits or a total payout of PLN 11.8 mln, resolutions from the Tuesday GM show. Kruk Kruk saw pension fund manager Aegon PTE increase its stake in the firm to 5.05% from 4.97%, Kruk said in a market filing. PKN Orlen PKN Orlen plans to conduct more green bond issues in the coming years after the recent EUR 500 mln bond issue attracted strong interest of investors, CEO Daniel Obajtek told PAP. PKN Orlen recorded a decrease of its model refining margin to USD 3.3/ bbl in May from USD 4.5/ bbl in April, data published on PKN Orlen's website showed. Polimex-Mostostal, Trakcja Trakcja and Polimex-Mostostal signed a PLN 327.8 mln net consortial contract to lay tramway tracks in the city of Olsztyn, Trakcja said in a market filing. Polish economy Polish fair&exhibition organizers lost ca. PLN 2 bln due to COVID-19 pandemic, and laid off 60% of their staff, sector lobby PIPT estimates. The sector has been reopened in the middle of the "dead season" and hence it is yet to see positive effects of restriction loosening, sector insider Slawomir Majman commented.