mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Friday, June 4, 2021
Morning Comments
Equity Market, Poland
Equity Research Contacts Michał Marczak +48 22 438 24 01 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 Jakub Szkopek +48 22 438 24 03 Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05 Paweł Szpigiel +48 22 438 24 06 Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 Piotr Poniatowski +48 22 438 24 09 Aleksandra Szklarczyk +48 22 438 24 04
DJIA 34,577 -0.07% FTSE 100 7,064 -0.61% Copper (LME) 9,789 -3.54% S&P 500 4,193 -0.36% WIG20 2,252 +0.85% Crude Oil (Brent) 70.91 +0.16% NASDAQ 13,615 -1.03% BUX 47,423 +1.47% USD/PLN 3.676 +0.70% DAX 15,633 +0.19% PX 1,175 +0.08% EUR/PLN 4.459 +0.04% CAC 40 6,508 -0.21% PLBonds10 1.845 -0.028 EUR/USD 1.2127 -0.69%
Daily Briefing
Equity Market WIG Index Membership After June Shuffle GPW Benchmark announced that following the trading session on June 18, there will be a revision concerning i.a. WIG20, mWIG40, sWIG80, WIG30 indices portfolios.
WIG20/WIG30: No changes
mWIG40: In: Asbis, Mabion Out: Echo Investment, GTC
sWIG80: In: AC, Action, Echo Investment, GTC, PCF Group, ZCh Police Out: Asbis, ATM Grupa, BoomBit, Harper, Mabion, Sygnity
Changes are mostly coherent with our estimation we have released two weeks ago on Friday, May 21 (Polish version, English version). Full composition of new indices with share of each company are available here. (P. Poniatowski)
BNP Paribas Polska ABB on BNP Paribas Polska completed Buy – 2021-04-19 Bank informed that ABB was successful and shares presenting 5.07% of capital share were sold by Target price: PLN 90.00 BNP Paribas SA (1.26%) and Rabobank International Holding (3.81%). After transaction BNP should hold 87.44% of BNP Paribas Polska. We remind that KNF set freefloat requirement at 25% until the end of 2023, so it’s very likely that parent company of BNP Paribas Polska will sell another chunk of its polish holdings in future. BNP Paribas Polska is our top pick among smaller banks and we believe that improved liquidity will help bank shares to better reflect the fundamental value in long term, Our target price is PLN 90 per share. (M. Konarski, M. Lemańczyk)
PKN Orlen BALTIC pipe construction halted in Denmark Hold – 2021-03-25 Concern over the impact on protected mice and bat species has halted construction in Denmark of Target price: PLN 60.64 Baltic Pipe, a pipeline connecting Poland with Norwegian gas fields, Danish grid operator Energinet said on Thursday. The suspension followed the rescinding of an environmental permit by a public PGNiG appeals committee. The Danish Environmental Protection Agency had given the permit before it Accumulate – 2021-04-09 was sufficiently clarified if the animals would be protected during the construction, according to Target price: PLN 6.84 Energinet, which is building the pipeline in Denmark. The environmental agency now needed to conduct further studies to asses whether the pipeline project would destroy or harm breeding grounds for the protected animals, the appeals committee said. Energinet said it would cease construction work until the necessary permits had been obtained. The environmental permit for the 900-kilometre (560-mile) pipeline, designed to reduce Poland's reliance on Russian gas, was originally given in July 2019. The gas link was initially expected to be completed in 2022, but it was not immediately clear whether the construction halt would delay the project. (K. Kliszcz)
Astarta Shares Buy-Back Programme Overweight – 2021-04-26 The Board of the Directors in accordance with Resolution No. 12 of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of the Company adopted on 28 May 2021 is authorised to repurchase shares in the capital of the Company up to a maximum of 12,500,000 shares, being 50% of the currently issued and paid up share capital, for a purchase price per share of up to PLN 125.00. The Buyback is valid for a period of eighteen months starting as of 28 May, 2021. The Company shall be authorized to repurchase up to 25% of the average daily volume of shares of the Company traded. (P. Poniatowski)
mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
TIM May 2021 Sales Update Overweight – 2020-12-08 TIM likely generated standalone revenue of PLN 101.5m in May 2021 after a 33.4% increase from the comparable year-ago period. By segment, monthly online sales were up by 45.4% at 75.5m and offline sales grew 7.5% to PLN 25.9m. On average, daily revenue in May amounted to PLN 3.98m online and PLN 1.37m offline. When it comes to base effects, in 2020 the monthly revenues of TIM did not seem to suffer even during lockdown periods, with working day-adjusted sales up 11% in April, 28% in May, and 4% in June. The growth in May sales exceeded our expectations, and it indicates a positive surprise in Q2’21 profits. With 50% sales growth in April, 33% in May, a conservative estimate of ca. 20% (keep in mind low base in June’20), and fast growing 3LP sales, Q2’21 Group’s revenue should exceed >300m PLN, and EBITDA PLN >25m. Moreover, with current EURPLN rate, reported pre-tax profit should be supported by ca. PLN 3m FX effect, and ~double y/y (PLN >20m). TIM remains a top pick for us, and looking at the strong ytd results our FY2021 earnings expectations for the Company might be due for an upward revision. (P. Poniatowski)
Monthly sales (PLN m) Avg daily sales (PLN m, working-day adj.) 120 4.50 100 4.00 3.50 80 3.00 60 2.50 2.00 40 1.50 20 1.00 0.50 0 0.00
online'19 online'20 online'21 online offline offline'19 offline'20 offline'21 Source: TIM, mBank Source: TIM, mBank
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mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
More News
Banking Polish banking sector recorded a PLN 2.44 bln combined net profit in April, up from PLN 1.03 bln net profit in April 2020, putting the 4M take to PLN 4.35 bln, central bank NBP data show. WSE-listed banks suffered a 24% q/q increase in the number of CHF lawsuits in Q1, to ca. 36.6k, according to data collected by PAP. Banks may now be less eager to slow down the CHF loan-related court proceedings after the recent verdict of a Warsaw court designated for dealing with CHF loans, which stated that payments of capital instalments should be suspended for the time of the proceedings in situations where a mortgage holder has already paid to the bank more than they have borrowed, lawyer Marcin Szamanski believes. Moreover, courts could be now more inclined to suspend instalment payments also in cases where the borrower has not yet paid off the lender, peer Agnieszka Plejewska adds. The court, however, openly stated injunctions in the latter scenario would be unjustified, lawyer Pawel Litwinski representing bank Santander BP notes. (Rzeczpospolita) CI Games CI Games is enjoying higher pre-sales of its newest game "Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2" in comparison to levels recorded when the first part of the game was released, the company wrote in a press release. Marketing budgets of these two games are comparable, but production costs of the second part are "slightly" lower, CEO Marek Tyminski said as cited in the release. CO2 Allowances Poland sold 2.6 mln European CO2 emission allowances EUA at ca. EUR 51.5 apiece at an auction held by the European exchange EEX, EEX said. Cyfrowy Polsat Cyfrowy Polsat's mobile telephony arm Polkomtel was obliged by consumer protection office UOKiK to pay compensations to clients for irregularities related to premium text message services, UOKiK said in a release. e-commerce Some 24% of Poles plan to increase online spending in the coming months, while 58% think their spending levels will remain unchanged, according to a survey conducted by researcher IQS for the daily Rzeczpospolita. Only 5% declared they want to cut their online spending. (Rzeczpospolita) GTC GTC will decide on hiking capital via a private placement issue of up to 97,111,024 E-series shares, draft resolutions for the GM slates for June 29 show. Introl Introl will pay out PLN 0.46 DPS from 2020 profits or a total payout of PLN 11.8 mln, resolutions from the Tuesday GM show. Kruk Kruk saw pension fund manager Aegon PTE increase its stake in the firm to 5.05% from 4.97%, Kruk said in a market filing. PKN Orlen PKN Orlen plans to conduct more green bond issues in the coming years after the recent EUR 500 mln bond issue attracted strong interest of investors, CEO Daniel Obajtek told PAP. PKN Orlen recorded a decrease of its model refining margin to USD 3.3/ bbl in May from USD 4.5/ bbl in April, data published on PKN Orlen's website showed. Polimex-Mostostal, Trakcja Trakcja and Polimex-Mostostal signed a PLN 327.8 mln net consortial contract to lay tramway tracks in the city of Olsztyn, Trakcja said in a market filing. Polish economy Polish fair&exhibition organizers lost ca. PLN 2 bln due to COVID-19 pandemic, and laid off 60% of their staff, sector lobby PIPT estimates. The sector has been reopened in the middle of the "dead season" and hence it is yet to see positive effects of restriction loosening, sector insider Slawomir Majman commented. It may take as many as 2-3 years to return to pre-pandemic result levels, the daily forecasts based on information provided by insiders. (Rzeczpospolita) Power Poland's demand for power in the 21st week of the year edged up by 0.1% as compared with the corresponding period in 2019, state development fund PFR said in a statement. Retail Polish shopping malls enjoyed a 17% y/y increase in average customer visits in the week May 24-30, malls lobby PRCH said in a press statement. As compared to the corresponding week of 2019, customer turnout was down 13%. Polish shopping malls enjoyed an annual increase of over 55% in customer visits in the first week of trade after the May reopening, while the following weeks brought about increases exceeding even 80% y/y, according to researcher ShopperTrak Index Polska data. (Rzeczpospolita) Stock Market Poland will offer tax reliefs to retail investors buying shares of companies debuting on the WSE, deputy Jan Sarnowski told a press conference.
3 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Corporate Action Calendar
Date Time Company Event 7-Jun 9:00 Boryszew Management meeting (Foksal 6, Warsaw) 7-Jun 11:00 Ferro Teleconference with the Management Board 10-Jun 11:00 11 bit studios Teleconference with the Management Board (https://www.live.tvip.pl/live/11bit-konferencja-pl/)
Economic Calendar
Friday, 4 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 11:00 EU Retail Sales April 2.70% m/m; 12.00% y/y 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings May 30,170 14:30 USA Average Workweek Hours May 35.00 14:30 USA Manufacturing Payrolls Change May -18,000 m/m 14:30 USA Nonfarm Payrolls Change May 266,000 m/m 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate May 6.10% 16:00 USA Factory Goods Orders April 1.10% m/m Monday, 7 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 07:00 Japan Leading Indicators Index April 102.50 Tuesday, 8 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 11:00 EU GDP Q1 -0.60% q/q; -1.80% y/y 11:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation June -40.10 11:00 EU ZEW Current Situation June -51.40 11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment June 84.40 11:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment June 84.00 14:30 USA Exports April 200.03bn 14:30 USA Imports April 274.48bn 14:30 USA Trade Balance April -74.45bn Wednesday, 9 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories April 1.30 m/m; 4.50 y/y 16:00 USA Wholesale Sales April 4.60 m/m; 19.00 y/y Poland Interest Rate 0.10% Thursday, 10 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 08:45 France Industrial Production April -5.90 m/m; 1.70 y/y 08:45 France Manufacturing Production April -6.80 m/m; 1.70 y/y 08:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls Change Q1 -20,600 q/q 13:45 EU Interest Rate 0.00% 14:30 USA Core CPI May 0.90% m/m; 3.00% y/y 14:30 USA CPI May 0.80% m/m; 4.20% y/y Friday, 11 June 2021 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 08:00 UK Exports April 48.15bn 08:00 UK Imports April 50.11bn 08:00 UK Industrial Production April 1.80% m/m; 3.60% y/y 08:00 UK Manufacturing Production April 2.10% m/m; 4.80% y/y 08:00 UK Trade Balance April -1.90bn Source: Stooq
4 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Current Recommendations of Biuro maklerskie mBanku Price At Target Current Upside/ P/E EV/EBITDA Company Recommendation Issued On Reco. Price Price Downside 2021 2022 2021 2022 Financials +2.0% 13.4 11.5 Alior Bank accumulate 2021-05-07 28.80 30.00 34.41 -12.8% 18.0 13.2 BNP Paribas Polska buy 2021-04-19 66.60 90.00 67.40 +33.5% 16.3 8.3 Handlowy accumulate 2021-04-19 43.25 49.50 46.80 +5.8% 8.4 13.8 ING BSK accumulate 2021-05-07 176.40 190.00 189.20 +0.4% 14.6 13.6 Millennium hold 2021-04-19 3.80 4.20 5.06 -17.0% - 9.8 Pekao buy 2021-04-19 76.24 102.00 97.26 +4.9% 17.7 12.1 PKO BP buy 2021-04-23 32.91 40.66 40.09 +1.4% 11.5 11.5 Santander Bank Polska buy 2021-04-19 211.80 283.70 271.30 +4.6% - 12.6 Komercni Banka hold 2021-06-02 798.50 804.77 CZK 789.50 +1.9% 16.0 11.6 Moneta Money Bank buy 2021-04-09 78.20 95.50 CZK 78.50 +21.7% 13.7 10.7 Erste Group hold 2021-06-02 34.05 34.06 EUR 34.56 -1.4% 11.2 9.4 RBI accumulate 2021-04-09 18.52 21.00 EUR 20.36 +3.1% 10.6 9.0 OTP Bank hold 2021-06-02 15,865 15,143 HUF 16,025 -5.5% 10.9 9.9 PZU accumulate 2021-06-02 37.29 40.63 37.90 +7.2% 10.3 10.3 Kruk hold 2021-02-02 168.30 174.96 278.60 -37.2% 18.0 16.4 GPW hold 2021-04-09 45.76 44.48 49.34 -9.9% 13.1 13.9 Chemicals +2.7% 10.2 10.9 6.3 7.9 Ciech hold 2021-06-02 46.70 47.47 45.90 +3.4% 10.3 10.9 5.6 5.5 Grupa Azoty hold 2021-05-07 37.68 34.74 34.02 +2.1% 10.1 - 6.9 10.4 Mining +19.3% 6.5 7.0 3.0 2.8 JSW buy 2021-04-09 31.88 48.09 34.85 +38.0% 6.3 6.7 2.3 2.0 KGHM buy 2021-06-02 208.80 245.39 209.50 +17.1% 6.7 7.3 3.7 3.6 Oil & Gas -6.2% 16.5 18.1 5.6 5.0 Lotos accumulate 2021-06-02 52.80 53.39 53.02 +0.7% 21.6 14.2 6.7 4.9 MOL hold 2021-04-09 2,150 2,294 HUF 2,394 -4.2% 13.7 21.9 4.5 5.1 PGNiG hold 2021-06-02 6.47 6.84 6.61 +3.4% 11.6 10.1 4.4 3.9 PKN Orlen hold 2021-03-25 62.82 60.64 81.18 -25.3% 19.3 22.2 7.0 7.2 Power Utilities +19.0% 10.6 15.8 4.9 5.2 CEZ buy 2021-06-02 631.00 759.63 CZK 635.00 +19.6% 18.8 15.8 8.0 7.7 Enea suspended 2021-06-02 8.76 - 9.10 - 3.7 4.5 3.3 3.0 PGE suspended 2021-06-02 9.94 - 10.24 - 10.6 46.2 3.6 3.8 Polenergia hold 2021-06-02 70.20 78.59 74.00 +6.2% 28.0 29.0 14.6 14.3 Tauron suspended 2021-06-02 3.40 - 3.55 - 4.7 6.6 4.9 5.2 Telecoms +0.0% 29.7 19.2 5.4 5.1 Cyfrowy Polsat hold 2020-12-08 27.84 27.90 31.62 -11.8% 13.6 13.1 7.5 7.3 Netia hold 2020-12-08 4.50 4.70 5.80 -19.0% 33.8 32.5 5.4 5.1 Orange Polska buy 2020-12-08 6.52 8.20 6.70 +22.4% 29.7 19.2 4.6 4.5 Media +8.7% 24.0 20.1 11.3 9.0 Agora accumulate 2020-12-08 6.96 7.60 10.20 -25.5% - - 10.3 7.6 Wirtualna Polska buy 2021-05-06 99.20 126.00 112.60 +11.9% 24.0 20.1 12.3 10.5 IT +14.1% 16.2 14.0 7.2 4.9 Ailleron neutral 2020-05-05 6.26 - 12.90 - 20.0 - 7.2 - Asseco BS neutral 2020-09-02 36.00 - 37.30 - 16.2 - 10.5 - Asseco Poland buy 2020-09-02 70.20 80.70 71.00 +13.7% 14.9 14.0 4.7 4.4 Asseco SEE overweight 2020-08-07 43.70 - 39.30 - 15.5 - 7.9 - Atende overweight 2020-11-27 3.44 - 5.96 - 20.2 - 9.6 - Comarch buy 2021-03-30 219.00 267.00 231.00 +15.6% 17.0 16.5 6.7 6.4 Sygnity hold 2021-03-18 11.10 11.60 10.20 +13.7% 5.0 8.8 4.2 4.9 Gaming - - - - - 11 bit studios suspended 2021-05-07 501.00 - 508.00 - - - - - CD Projekt suspended 2021-05-07 156.52 - 161.58 - - - - - PlayWay suspended 2021-05-07 430.20 - 478.40 - - - - - Ten Square Games suspended 2021-05-07 420.00 - 451.60 - - - - - Industrials +8.3% 11.0 12.2 6.2 6.9 AC overweight 2021-04-29 37.00 - 36.80 - 14.2 11.9 9.2 8.0 Alumetal neutral 2021-05-31 68.00 - 66.80 - 8.1 12.2 6.2 8.9 Amica underweight 2021-04-09 153.20 - 168.00 - 12.3 12.1 6.9 6.9 Apator neutral 2021-04-29 23.90 - 24.10 - 9.2 12.6 5.5 7.1 Astarta overweight 2021-04-26 38.20 - 44.00 - 2.6 3.3 1.9 1.8 Boryszew neutral 2021-05-31 3.29 - 3.31 - 20.2 13.7 7.0 6.1 Cognor hold 2021-04-09 3.16 3.19 3.28 -2.6% 7.3 11.0 4.2 5.1 Famur hold 2021-04-09 2.53 2.50 2.38 +5.3% 10.7 12.9 2.4 2.1 Forte neutral 2021-05-31 59.90 - 59.70 - 13.5 12.3 8.1 8.0 Grupa Kęty hold 2021-06-02 610.00 553.55 592.00 -6.5% 13.3 13.8 9.2 9.5 Kernel buy 2021-03-12 54.00 71.84 57.40 +25.2% 4.3 5.3 3.7 4.3 Mangata neutral 2021-05-31 87.80 - 88.00 - 11.3 12.1 7.3 7.6 Mo-BRUK hold 2021-05-04 409.00 429.25 344.00 +24.8% 12.5 11.5 9.1 8.2 PKP Cargo sell 2021-04-09 19.08 16.21 21.20 -23.5% - - 4.6 4.0 Stalprodukt hold 2021-06-02 382.00 403.06 397.00 +1.5% 8.9 12.2 4.1 4.6 E-commerce -8.8% 56.1 45.2 32.0 27.1 Allegro sell 2020-11-18 67.89 54.00 59.18 -8.8% 56.1 45.2 32.0 27.1 Answear suspended 2021-05-07 32.01 - 32.50 - - - - - Retail -5.2% 24.5 17.9 11.6 9.9 AmRest suspended 2020-12-08 25.80 - 32.70 - - - - - CCC suspended 2021-05-07 111.80 - 117.65 - - - - - Dino suspended 2021-05-07 247.30 - 286.10 - - - - - Eurocash suspended 2021-05-07 14.32 - 15.16 - - - - - Jeronimo Martins suspended 2021-05-07 15.38 - 15.90 - - - - - LPP suspended 2021-05-07 10,640.00 - 11,360.00 - - - - - TIM overweight 2020-12-08 18.90 - 33.30 - 18.6 19.1 10.5 10.5 VRG accumulate 2021-04-23 3.33 3.65 3.85 -5.2% 30.3 16.7 12.7 9.3
5 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Valuation Multiples by Industry, Polish & European Equities
Banks P/E ROE P/BV DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Polish banks Alior Bank 34.41 18.0 13.2 9.9 4% 5% 6% 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BNP Paribas BP 67.40 16.3 8.3 7.4 5% 9% 9% 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.0% 2.8% 5.4% Handlowy 46.80 8.4 13.8 13.1 9% 5% 6% 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4% 10.9% 7.3% ING BSK 189.20 14.6 13.6 13.1 9% 9% 9% 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.0% 4.6% 4.8% Millennium 5.06 - 9.8 8.1 -38% 10% 11% 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pekao 97.26 17.7 12.1 10.7 6% 8% 8% 1.0 0.9 0.9 3.2% 5.7% 8.3% PKO BP 40.09 11.5 11.5 10.8 11% 10% 11% 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.0% 7.9% 7.8% Santander BP 271.30 - 12.6 11.6 -2% 8% 8% 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.0% 6.4% 6.4% median 15.4 12.3 10.8 5% 8% 9% 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0% 5.1% 5.9% Investors in Polish Banks BCP 0.16 11.4 8.0 6.2 3% 5% 6% 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6% 3.1% 4.4% Citigroup 79.63 10.8 9.7 8.8 8% 9% 9% 0.9 0.8 0.7 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% Commerzbank 6.85 152.2 14.9 9.2 -1% 2% 4% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.8% 3.8% ING 11.65 12.1 10.7 9.9 7% 8% 8% 0.8 0.8 0.8 6.6% 5.2% 5.6% UCI 10.58 12.1 8.5 6.9 3% 5% 5% 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.4% 4.5% 5.6% median 12.1 9.7 8.8 3% 5% 6% 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.6% 3.1% 4.4% Foreign Banks Erste Group 34.56 11.2 9.4 8.6 7% 8% 9% 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4% 4.7% 5.6% Komercni Banka 789.50 16.0 11.6 10.1 8% 11% 12% 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.9% 6.2% 6.5% Moneta Money 78.50 13.7 10.7 8.7 9% 11% 13% 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.8% 10.1% 7.4% OTP Bank 16,025 10.9 9.9 9.1 15% 15% 14% 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% RBI 20.36 10.6 9.0 8.4 5% 5% 5% 0.5 0.5 0.4 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% Akbank 5.26 3.4 2.5 2.5 12% 15% 13% 0.4 0.3 0.3 7.0% 9.9% 8.0% Alpha Bank 1.10 15.0 6.5 4.4 3% 4% 6% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.0% - Banco Santander 3.51 11.6 9.3 8.4 6% 7% 8% 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.4% 4.6% 5.8% Deutsche Bank 12.52 24.8 11.9 10.2 1% 4% 5% 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6% 1.8% 2.7% NB of Greece 2.59 9.2 6.9 5.9 6% 6% 8% 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% Sberbank 312.50 7.1 6.5 5.8 18% 18% 18% 1.2 1.1 1.0 7.0% 7.7% 8.6% Turkiye Garanti B 8.04 4.0 2.8 2.9 13% 15% 13% 0.5 0.4 0.4 4.6% 8.7% - Turkiye Halk Bank 4.68 2.9 1.7 1.7 9% 12% 12% 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.1% 2.6% - Turkiye Vakiflar B 3.60 3.4 2.1 - 9% 12% - 0.3 0.2 - - - - VTB Bank 0.05 4.1 4.5 3.3 11% 11% 12% 0.4 0.4 0.3 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% Yapi ve Kredi B 2.20 2.9 2.1 - 13% 15% - 0.3 0.3 - 1.5% 6.8% - median . 9.9 6.7 7.2 9% 11% 12% 0.5 0.4 0.4 2.3% 4.7% 5.8% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Insurance P/E ROE P/BV DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Insurance Companies PZU 37.90 10.3 10.3 10.3 18% 18% 17% 1.8 1.8 1.8 11.0% 8.8% 8.7% Aegon 3.93 6.9 6.4 6.1 5% 5% 6% 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.0% 4.8% 6.1% Allianz 218.10 10.9 10.3 9.7 10% 10% 10% 1.1 1.0 1.0 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% Assicurazioni Gen 17.09 10.1 9.5 9.3 9% 9% 9% 1.0 0.9 0.8 6.1% 6.4% 6.7% Aviva 4.13 7.8 7.8 7.4 11% 10% 9% 0.8 0.7 0.6 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% AXA 22.81 8.4 7.9 7.5 11% 11% 12% 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.6% 7.0% 7.5% Baloise 148.80 11.3 10.9 10.9 8% 8% 8% 0.9 0.9 0.9 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% Helvetia 100.70 10.7 10.3 9.7 8% 8% 8% 0.8 0.9 0.8 5.2% 5.4% 5.7% Mapfre 1.89 7.9 8.7 8.7 8% 7% 7% 0.7 0.6 0.6 7.3% 7.5% 7.5% RSA Insurance 6.84 16.1 15.2 12.8 10% 10% - 1.7 1.6 - 3.4% 4.2% 4.5% Uniqa 7.55 10.5 8.4 - 6% 8% - 0.7 0.7 - 6.5% 7.2% - Vienna Insu Group 23.45 8.1 7.6 - 7% 7% 8% 0.6 0.5 0.5 5.0% 5.3% 5.8% Zurich Financial 376.70 12.7 11.4 10.9 12% 13% 14% 1.5 1.4 1.4 6.1% 6.4% 6.7% median . 10.3 9.5 9.7 9% 9% 9% 0.8 0.9 0.8 5.6% 5.8% 6.2% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
6 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Conventional Energy EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Generators CEZ 635.00 8.0 7.7 7.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 18.8 15.8 14.6 30% 34% 33% 8.2% 5.3% 6.3% Enea 9.10 3.3 3.0 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 3.7 4.5 4.4 20% 15% 15% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% PGE 10.24 3.6 3.8 3.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 10.6 46.2 20.4 17% 10% 11% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Tauron 3.55 4.9 5.2 4.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 4.7 6.6 6.1 21% 17% 17% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% median 4.2 4.5 4.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 7.6 11.2 10.4 21% 16% 16% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% Vertically Integrated Utilities EDF 11.31 5.5 5.1 4.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 15.2 13.9 11.6 24% 25% 25% 3.1% 3.8% 4.1% EDP 4.49 9.2 8.7 8.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 19.9 18.2 17.3 26% 26% 27% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7% Endesa 21.74 7.9 7.6 7.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 13.4 12.9 12.7 20% 21% 21% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% Enel 7.89 7.7 7.3 7.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 14.8 13.8 12.8 24% 25% 25% 4.8% 5.1% 5.5% Engie 12.33 6.0 5.9 5.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 12.4 11.6 10.7 17% 18% 18% 5.9% 6.3% 6.8% Fortum 23.45 9.8 10.2 9.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 16.1 17.1 15.7 5% 4% 5% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% median 7.8 7.5 7.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 15.0 13.8 12.8 22% 23% 23% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% Transmission System Operators EON 9.96 9.6 9.0 9.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 14.3 11.4 11.0 11% 12% 11% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% Elia Group 87.70 13.8 12.8 12.1 5.6 5.3 5.0 23.9 21.6 20.6 40% 41% 42% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% EVN 20.15 8.5 8.1 7.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 16.3 16.1 14.9 27% 27% 28% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% IREN 2.57 7.2 6.8 6.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 14.0 12.3 11.6 23% 24% 24% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% National Grid 921.30 12.7 11.3 10.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 17.5 15.6 14.7 34% 36% 38% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Red Electrica 16.54 9.8 9.7 9.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 78% 78% 78% 6.1% 6.1% 5.3% Redes Energeticas 2.28 9.2 9.1 9.1 5.6 5.5 5.8 13.2 13.0 12.5 61% 61% 64% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% SSE 1538.00 12.2 11.5 11.2 2.8 3.0 2.9 17.9 16.8 16.5 23% 26% 26% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Terna 6.31 12.1 12.1 11.6 8.7 8.6 8.3 16.0 16.6 15.8 72% 71% 72% 4.6% 4.9% 5.4% median . 9.8 9.7 9.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 16.0 15.6 14.7 34% 36% 38% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Renewable Energy EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Renewables Polenergia 74.00 14.6 14.3 10.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 28.0 29.0 18.4 12% 11% 14% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Wind Abo Wind 46.10 11.0 9.7 8.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 26.1 21.8 19.5 21% 20% 20% 1.0% 1.1% 2.2% Avangrid 53.32 12.8 11.3 10.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 23.7 22.0 20.7 33% 36% 36% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% Boralex 37.67 13.7 13.2 12.2 10.2 9.6 8.0 46.4 42.4 21.5 74% 72% 66% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% Edp Renovaveis 18.36 12.7 11.7 10.6 10.6 9.5 8.6 35.4 31.0 27.8 83% 82% 81% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Eolus Vind 189.40 11.3 65.9 15.8 0.9 3.6 1.5 18.9 - 25.8 8% 5% 10% 2.8% 1.3% 4.0% Falck Renewables 5.37 12.1 11.1 10.5 6.1 5.4 5.6 40.7 31.6 27.3 51% 49% 54% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Iberdrola 10.67 11.2 10.2 9.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 18.1 16.6 15.7 30% 30% 31% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% Orsted 853.00 16.4 17.1 14.9 6.3 6.1 5.7 39.1 44.2 35.8 39% 36% 39% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% PNE 7.46 23.8 18.1 16.0 5.6 5.3 3.9 - - - 24% 29% 24% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Terna Energy 11.84 11.7 10.5 8.2 7.4 6.6 5.3 21.5 18.3 11.9 63% 63% 65% 2.9% 3.3% 4.0% Tilt Renewables 8.01 43.2 28.9 29.1 23.3 16.5 16.5 - 1.8 - 54% 57% 57% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Transalta Ren 19.62 11.7 11.3 11.3 11.7 11.3 11.6 26.5 25.4 25.0 100% 100% 103% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Xcel Energy 70.48 13.4 12.6 12.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 23.7 22.2 20.9 37% 38% 39% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% median 12.7 11.7 11.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 26.1 22.2 21.5 39% 38% 39% 1.8% 1.6% 2.2% Solar Azure Power 19.46 14.8 10.7 9.1 10.3 8.8 7.5 - - 34.4 69% 82% 83% - - - Clearway Energy 26.47 10.0 9.5 10.1 8.4 7.9 7.7 34.2 - 22.6 84% 83% 76% 5.0% 5.3% 5.6% Neoen 31.90 16.7 13.3 10.7 13.7 10.9 8.8 - 55.3 39.5 82% 82% 82% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% Renova 3740 29.7 20.5 18.3 14.2 10.7 9.8 - - - 48% 52% 53% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Solaria Energia 14.71 32.9 18.2 13.4 25.8 14.6 10.8 56.1 29.8 21.1 78% 80% 80% - - - median 16.7 13.3 10.7 13.7 10.7 8.8 45.1 42.5 28.5 78% 82% 80% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% Mixed Erg 25.04 10.4 9.6 9.3 4.9 4.7 4.6 32.2 27.9 28.5 47% 49% 49% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Innergex 20.53 14.1 13.6 12.8 11.6 11.1 10.8 - 57.3 65.2 82% 82% 85% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% Nextera 68.43 9.5 8.7 8.2 9.9 8.9 7.7 24.8 30.8 37.3 104% 102% 94% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1% Northland Power 40.37 13.3 13.3 12.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 25.8 24.7 19.6 56% 56% 58% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Brookfield Ren 39.00 20.7 19.3 18.6 11.4 10.7 10.7 - - - 55% 55% 57% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% Meridian Energy 5.26 20.6 20.4 20.4 4.0 4.4 4.6 59.1 56.6 53.1 20% 22% 22% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Verbund 74.20 11.7 10.2 9.6 4.1 3.9 3.8 43.1 36.1 33.6 35% 39% 40% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% median . 13.3 13.3 12.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 32.2 33.5 35.5 55% 55% 57% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
7 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Gas & Oil EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Oil Lotos 53.02 6.7 4.9 4.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 21.6 14.2 8.7 7% 9% 11% 1.9% 5.7% 5.7% MOL 2,394 4.5 5.1 4.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 13.7 21.9 11.5 14% 13% 14% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% PKN Orlen 81.18 7.0 7.2 6.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 19.3 22.2 14.7 8% 8% 10% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Hellenic Petrol 6.41 8.1 6.4 5.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 19.2 9.8 8.3 7% 8% 8% 4.0% 5.0% 5.4% HollyFrontier 35.00 10.8 6.2 5.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 - 11.4 9.5 6% 10% 12% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% Marathon Petrol 63.26 11.7 8.9 8.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 - 26.4 19.0 8% 10% 13% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% Motor Oil 14.60 5.7 4.7 5.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 9.6 6.9 8.6 6% 7% 7% 5.5% 7.3% 7.9% Neste Oil 55.60 22.2 18.5 15.4 3.4 3.2 2.9 36.3 28.8 23.2 15% 17% 19% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% OMV 50.46 4.9 4.6 4.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 10.9 9.4 9.0 23% 24% 25% 3.8% 4.1% 4.3% Phillips 66 89.21 13.7 8.7 8.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 37.5 13.5 11.8 5% 6% 6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5% Saras SpA 0.78 9.2 6.0 4.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - 22.9 2% 3% 3% 1.0% 0.9% 2.3% Tupras 103.00 9.0 5.9 5.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 17.9 8.0 7.3 4% 6% 6% 5.2% 8.3% 11.5% Valero Energy 83.32 12.3 7.2 7.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 - 15.3 13.4 4% 6% 7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% median 9.0 6.2 5.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 19.2 13.9 11.5 7% 8% 10% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% Gas PGNiG 6.61 4.4 3.9 4.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 11.6 10.1 11.6 19% 22% 20% 2.9% 4.3% 5.0% A2A SpA 1.71 8.1 7.3 6.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 17.8 15.4 15.5 17% 18% 18% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% BP 324.10 5.2 4.8 4.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.8 9.6 8.8 11% 12% 12% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Centrica 54.66 3.3 3.2 3.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 14.0 9.1 8.2 9% 10% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Enagas 19.32 10.3 10.5 10.8 9.0 9.3 9.7 13.2 13.2 13.4 88% 89% 90% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% Endesa 21.74 7.9 7.6 7.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 13.4 12.9 12.7 20% 21% 21% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% Engie 12.33 6.0 5.9 5.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 12.4 11.6 10.7 17% 18% 18% 5.9% 6.3% 6.8% Eni 10.44 3.8 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 15.8 11.4 10.0 23% 25% 25% 6.1% 6.8% 6.9% Equinor 190.76 3.6 3.4 3.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 14.1 14.1 14.0 38% 39% 39% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Gas Natural SDG 21.50 9.8 9.6 9.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 17.3 17.3 17.3 21% 20% 22% 7.0% 7.3% 5.9% Gazprom 271.60 4.9 4.3 4.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 5.3 4.6 4.4 27% 28% 28% 8.5% 10.7% 11.4% Hera SpA 3.53 7.5 7.3 7.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 16.1 15.7 14.6 15% 15% 15% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% NovaTek 1,544 15.1 13.4 12.7 5.4 4.8 4.6 14.5 14.6 14.3 36% 36% 36% 3.3% 3.6% 3.5% ROMGAZ 32.80 4.4 3.9 3.9 2.2 2.0 1.9 8.5 7.8 7.8 51% 52% 48% 6.3% 7.2% 7.2% Shell 16.49 3.1 2.8 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 9.5 8.2 6.9 17% 18% 17% 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% Snam SpA 4.86 13.3 13.2 12.7 10.5 10.3 9.7 14.0 14.4 13.8 79% 78% 77% 5.4% 5.7% 5.8% median . 5.6 5.4 5.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 13.7 12.3 12.1 21% 21% 21% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Fertilizers and Chemicals EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Fertilizer Producers Grupa Azoty 34.02 6.9 10.4 6.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 10.1 - 12.3 11% 8% 11% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Acron 6,000 8.2 7.9 7.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 12.2 11.1 9.0 31% 30% 30% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% CF Industries 55.02 10.3 11.0 10.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 23.8 25.6 23.8 35% 33% 34% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% K+S 11.36 8.2 7.2 6.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 - 38.6 32.7 15% 16% 18% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% Phosagro 4,695 7.0 6.9 6.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 16.6 18.0 20.5 36% 35% 35% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% The Mosaic Co 37.39 7.2 7.8 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 15.7 17.9 17.9 24% 22% 22% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% Yara International 449.40 7.3 7.1 6.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 13.8 13.6 12.7 18% 19% 19% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% median 7.3 7.8 6.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 14.8 17.9 17.9 24% 22% 22% 0.6% 1.0% 1.6% Chemical Producers Ciech 45.90 5.6 5.5 5.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.3 10.9 11.3 21% 20% 20% 6.5% 5.8% 6.4% Akzo Nobel 106.15 14.1 13.2 12.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 23.3 20.7 19.0 17% 18% 18% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% BASF 68.35 8.2 7.8 7.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 15.0 14.3 13.4 15% 15% 16% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% Croda 6,950 21.7 20.2 19.3 6.2 5.9 5.7 34.6 31.7 29.8 28% 29% 30% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sisecam 8.03 5.1 4.3 3.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 8.4 7.0 5.8 21% 22% 23% 2.6% 3.2% 3.7% Soda Sanayii ------Solvay 113.25 6.9 6.5 6.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 16.9 14.3 12.5 22% 23% 23% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% Tata Chemicals 727.75 13.5 10.3 8.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 40.3 22.2 18.0 16% 19% 20% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% Tessenderlo Chem 35.30 5.0 4.8 4.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 10.9 10.3 9.6 18% 18% 18% - - - Wacker Chemie 134.65 6.4 7.1 6.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 21.4 20.2 18.1 20% 17% 18% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% median . 6.9 7.1 6.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 16.9 14.3 13.4 20% 19% 20% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
8 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Machinery & Equipment EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Industrials Famur 2.38 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 10.7 12.9 15.0 30% 28% 27% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% Caterpillar 243.84 16.0 13.6 12.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 29.6 22.9 18.7 19% 20% 20% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% Epiroc 187.25 14.4 13.2 12.5 3.8 3.6 3.4 34.5 31.2 29.1 27% 27% 27% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% Komatsu 3,280 13.3 10.1 8.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 31.7 19.7 15.1 14% 16% 18% 1.4% 2.3% 2.9% Sandvig AG 227.00 12.2 11.2 10.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 21.3 18.9 17.7 25% 25% 25% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% median . 13.3 11.2 10.7 3.0 2.7 2.5 29.6 19.7 17.7 25% 25% 25% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Metals Mining EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Metals KGHM 209.50 3.7 3.6 3.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 6.7 7.3 7.6 33% 31% 30% 0.7% 4.8% 8.3% Anglo American 3,201 3.9 4.8 5.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 8.1 10.4 11.4 42% 37% 36% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Antofagasta 1,546 6.4 6.7 7.1 3.8 3.9 4.1 18.3 19.3 21.8 60% 58% 57% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BHP Group LTD 49.59 3.8 4.1 4.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 13.0 13.6 15.5 60% 58% 57% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% Boliden 339.70 5.9 6.2 6.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 11.7 12.9 14.0 26% 25% 24% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% First Quantum 28.49 7.0 6.2 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 20.1 14.1 14.7 50% 55% 54% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% F-McMoRan 41.87 8.2 7.2 7.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 17.0 15.0 18.7 43% 46% 46% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% Fresnillo 865.60 6.1 5.2 6.5 3.2 2.9 3.3 16.5 13.7 17.7 52% 56% 51% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gold Fields 15,928 4.4 4.5 4.2 2.6 2.6 2.4 10.2 10.0 9.3 59% 58% 57% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hudbay Min 8.90 4.5 3.7 3.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 33.9 11.6 10.1 40% 45% 47% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% KAZ Minerals 849.00 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.0 2.7 2.7 6.5 6.0 6.5 62% 61% 64% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lundin Min 12.58 4.8 4.8 5.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 11.4 11.7 12.1 55% 54% 53% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% MMC Norilsk Nickel 36.21 6.4 6.1 6.6 3.9 3.8 4.0 9.8 9.7 10.9 61% 61% 60% 7.4% 6.2% 5.8% OZ Minerals 26.28 10.7 9.6 9.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 22.4 19.2 18.9 50% 53% 51% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% Polymetal Intl 1,688 7.0 6.2 6.1 4.1 3.7 3.7 10.1 9.9 8.9 59% 61% 61% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Polyus 16,098 8.1 7.4 7.4 5.8 5.3 5.2 11.3 9.9 10.2 71% 72% 71% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% Sandfire Res 7.13 1.9 2.1 16.0 1.1 1.2 3.4 7.8 7.9 - 57% 56% 21% 3.9% 3.2% 0.3% Southern CC 69.40 10.4 10.9 10.6 5.8 6.1 5.8 19.9 20.0 18.9 56% 55% 54% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% median . 6.0 5.7 6.5 3.1 2.8 3.3 11.6 11.6 12.1 55% 56% 53% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Coal Mining EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Coal JSW 34.85 2.3 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 6.3 6.7 4.9 22% 23% 24% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% Alliance Res Par 6.42 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.2 11.1 11.9 29% 30% 29% 9.3% 12.5% 12.5% Banpu 13.70 10.3 10.0 9.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 15.9 14.2 14.1 24% 25% 27% 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% BHP Group 74.99 3.8 4.0 4.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 12.8 13.4 15.3 60% 58% 57% 6.8% 6.9% 5.7% China Coal Energy 4.94 3.1 3.1 3.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 19% 19% 19% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% LW Bogdanka 24.35 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 8.1 8.0 - 26% 26% 25% - - - Peabody Energy C 7.82 4.2 4.1 3.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 - - - 14% 14% 16% 0.0% 0.0% - PT Bukit Asam T 2,320 5.0 4.6 4.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.9 7.2 6.7 23% 23% 23% 8.4% 10.6% 10.4% Rio Tinto 6,172 3.4 4.5 5.4 2.0 2.4 2.6 7.7 10.6 13.4 59% 53% 47% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Semirara Min&Po 14.04 4.9 3.9 - 1.9 1.6 1.5 9.0 6.9 7.8 38% 41% - 4.4% 8.1% 14.2% Shougang Fush R 2.18 5.2 5.3 5.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 8.7 9.2 9.7 53% 53% 51% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% Stanmore Coal 0.73 5.3 3.4 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 36.3 12.1 6.6 10% 16% 27% - - 20.7% Teck Resources 23.87 5.3 5.0 4.5 2.0 2.0 1.8 9.8 9.5 9.0 38% 40% 40% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Warrior Met Coal 19.58 5.0 4.8 3.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 10.9 8.7 8.6 23% 23% 29% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Yanzhou Coal Min 10.96 4.1 4.1 3.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 4.7 5.0 4.9 26% 26% 26% 7.9% 7.7% 8.2% median . 4.2 4.1 3.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 8.4 9.0 8.6 26% 26% 27% 3.4% 3.4% 7.5% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
9 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Construction EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Construction Acciona 133.80 10.2 9.2 8.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 24.8 19.9 17.3 17% 18% 19% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% Budimex 295.00 5.6 7.9 8.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 15.5 17.6 22.5 12% 8% 8% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% Ferrovial 24.36 40.3 33.6 28.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 - - 53.2 8% 10% 11% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% Hochtief 68.62 3.9 3.6 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.6 9.4 8.2 5% 5% 6% 6.1% 6.9% 7.9% Mota Engil 1.44 4.7 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 8.2 10.3 6.8 15% 16% 16% 4.5% 7.7% 7.7% NCC 161.50 5.9 5.6 5.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 11.8 11.7 10.6 6% 6% 6% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% Skanska 239.10 9.7 8.9 7.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 16.7 15.4 14.8 6% 6% 7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% Strabag 37.05 3.0 2.9 - 0.2 0.2 - 12.0 10.9 - 7% 7% - 3.5% 4.0% - median . 5.7 6.8 7.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 12.0 11.7 14.8 8% 8% 8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.6% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Real Estate EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Property Developers Develia 3.45 10.2 10.0 11.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 11.5 11.5 13.3 26% 26% 22% 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% Echo Investment 4.84 13.5 13.5 - 1.1 1.0 0.9 9.8 8.7 5.6 31% 26% - 7.2% 7.3% 11.2% GTC 6.85 15.4 14.4 13.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 - - 10.2 67% 70% 66% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% CA Immobilien Anl 35.50 26.9 25.3 22.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 20.8 18.6 16.5 76% 76% 90% 3.1% 3.3% 3.8% Deutsche Eurosh 19.95 14.9 15.2 14.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 - 14.1 8.9 83% 85% 89% 4.1% 4.7% 4.6% Immofinanz AG 19.00 24.3 23.5 21.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 21.0 16.4 11.9 56% 57% 49% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% Klepierre 24.13 24.3 22.2 20.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 12.6 10.3 10.5 79% 84% 88% 5.2% 6.3% 6.4% Segro 1,050.50 40.8 33.8 30.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 38.1 35.1 32.2 81% 92% 105% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% median . 19.9 18.7 20.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 16.7 14.1 11.2 72% 73% 88% 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Telecommunications EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Poland Netia 5.80 5.4 5.1 5.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 33.8 32.5 31.2 34% 34% 33% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% Orange Polska 6.70 4.6 4.5 4.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 29.7 19.2 16.1 31% 31% 31% 3.7% 3.7% 7.5% median 5.0 4.8 4.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 31.7 25.9 23.7 32% 33% 32% 1.9% 1.9% 5.5% Mid Caps Proximus 16.82 4.6 4.5 4.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 10.8 10.7 12.8 33% 34% 33% 7.1% 7.1% 7.6% Telefonica CP 288.00 7.3 7.4 7.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 14.9 15.6 16.5 33% 32% 32% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% Hellenic Telekom 14.57 5.8 5.6 5.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 14.1 12.8 11.7 39% 39% 41% 5.5% 6.6% 6.3% Matav 406.00 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 9.8 9.0 9.3 34% 34% 34% 5.3% 5.7% 4.9% Telecom Austria 7.25 4.7 4.7 4.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 10.7 10.0 9.0 35% 35% 35% 3.7% 4.3% 4.3% median 4.7 4.7 4.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 10.8 10.7 11.7 34% 34% 34% 5.5% 6.6% 6.3% Big Caps BT 176.95 4.8 4.7 4.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 9.4 8.8 8.4 35% 36% 37% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DT 17.27 6.6 6.1 5.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 15.0 13.4 12.5 35% 36% 38% 3.5% 3.7% 4.1% KPN 2.73 7.2 7.0 6.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 21.0 18.7 16.7 47% 47% 48% 5.1% 5.2% 5.5% Orange France 10.55 4.3 4.2 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 10.1 9.2 8.7 30% 30% 31% 6.9% 7.0% 7.3% Swisscom 517.00 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 18.8 18.8 18.7 39% 39% 40% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Telefonica S.A. 3.88 5.1 5.1 4.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 10.1 9.3 8.3 33% 33% 35% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% Telia Company 36.51 7.3 7.2 7.0 2.5 2.6 2.5 20.8 18.7 16.9 35% 36% 36% 5.6% 5.7% 5.9% TI 0.44 4.3 4.3 4.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 11.4 9.9 8.9 43% 43% 43% 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% median . 5.8 5.6 5.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 13.2 11.6 10.7 35% 36% 37% 4.7% 4.7% 4.9% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
10 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Media EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Polish Media Groups Agora 10.20 10.3 7.6 6.2 1.5 1.2 1.0 - - 60.1 14% 16% 16% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Wirtualna Polska 112.60 12.3 10.5 9.4 4.9 4.2 3.8 24.0 20.1 18.1 40% 40% 40% 0.9% 1.7% 2.0% median 11.3 9.0 7.8 3.2 2.7 2.4 24.0 20.1 39.1 27% 28% 28% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% Daily Mail Arnolgo Mond 1.64 4.6 4.3 3.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 15.8 12.6 11.7 12% 13% 14% 2.4% 3.9% 5.5% Daily Mail 883.00 11.1 9.6 8.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 37.1 28.2 23.5 11% 13% 15% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% New York Times 42.13 24.7 20.1 17.5 3.5 3.2 3.0 45.9 35.3 29.6 14% 16% 17% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% Promotora de Inf 0.91 12.4 9.3 7.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 - - 22.9 14% 18% 21% - - - median 11.8 9.5 8.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 37.1 28.2 23.2 13% 14% 16% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% TV Atresmedia Corp 3.92 6.9 6.3 6.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 9.7 8.7 8.4 15% 16% 16% 7.3% 8.7% 8.8% Gestevision Telecin 5.65 6.5 6.4 6.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 9.4 9.2 9.1 29% 29% 29% 4.2% 5.3% 7.2% ITV PLC 128.65 9.0 7.9 7.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 11.9 10.4 10.3 20% 22% 22% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% M6-Metropole Tel 17.22 6.2 5.9 5.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 12.8 11.5 10.7 26% 27% 29% 6.4% 6.4% 5.2% Mediaset SPA 2.97 10.1 9.0 11.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 19.9 17.1 13.8 18% 20% 16% 2.0% 2.8% 3.4% Prosieben 17.95 8.0 7.5 7.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 13.4 11.8 10.9 18% 19% 19% 3.6% 4.3% 5.0% TF1-TV Francaise 8.50 3.8 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 13.5 12.4 10.6 21% 20% 24% 5.1% 5.4% 6.8% median 6.9 6.4 6.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 12.8 11.5 10.6 20% 20% 22% 4.2% 5.3% 5.2% Pay TV Cogeco 117.89 5.7 5.5 5.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 14.1 13.1 14.9 48% 49% 48% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% Comcast 56.39 10.5 9.3 8.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 19.8 15.7 13.4 29% 32% 33% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% Dish Network 44.89 7.4 7.9 8.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 14.9 17.4 29.0 19% 18% 17% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Liberty Global 26.68 5.1 5.6 5.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 31.8 25.5 17.0 39% 39% 41% 0.0% 0.0% - Shaw Comm 29.78 9.4 9.2 9.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 27.1 25.2 24.3 44% 44% 44% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% median . 7.4 7.9 8.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 19.8 17.4 17.0 39% 39% 41% 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
IT EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Poland Asseco Poland 71.00 4.7 4.4 4.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 14.9 14.0 13.5 16% 16% 16% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% Comarch 231.00 6.7 6.4 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 17.0 16.5 16.0 16% 15% 15% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% Sygnity 10.20 4.2 4.9 4.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 5.0 8.8 8.7 29% 22% 21% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% median 4.7 4.9 4.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 14.9 14.0 13.5 16% 16% 16% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% International Atos Origin 53.66 3.8 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 7.6 6.9 6.3 14% 15% 15% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% CapGemini 148.60 11.4 10.5 9.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 19.2 16.8 14.9 15% 16% 16% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% IBM 145.55 9.6 9.6 10.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 13.2 12.0 11.3 25% 24% 22% 4.6% 4.9% 4.8% Indra Sistemas 7.16 5.2 4.7 4.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 10.8 8.7 7.4 10% 11% 11% 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% Microsoft 245.71 23.0 20.6 17.5 10.9 9.7 8.7 33.3 30.3 26.6 47% 47% 49% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% Oracle 81.09 13.2 12.9 12.3 6.7 6.5 6.3 18.1 16.9 15.7 50% 51% 51% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% SAP 113.58 16.4 15.5 14.5 5.4 5.2 4.9 24.0 22.9 21.0 33% 34% 34% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% TietoEVRY 26.18 8.3 7.4 7.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 11.2 10.5 9.8 17% 18% 18% 5.4% 5.7% 6.1% median . 10.5 10.1 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 15.7 14.4 13.1 21% 21% 20% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
11 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Gaming EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Gaming 11 bit studios 508.00 ------CD Projekt 161.58 ------PlayWay 478.40 ------Ten Square Games 451.60 ------Activision Blizzars 94.98 17.6 15.1 14.4 7.8 6.9 6.8 26.0 22.2 20.9 45% 46% 47% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Capcom 3,345 23.9 18.5 16.8 8.9 7.5 7.1 32.8 26.7 23.8 37% 41% 42% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% Take Two 177.73 19.1 19.3 14.9 5.0 4.8 3.7 29.6 29.6 21.6 26% 25% 24% - - - Ubisoft 57.40 7.8 7.3 6.0 3.3 3.0 2.7 23.0 21.4 18.3 41% 41% 46% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Electronic Arts 141.99 16.8 15.3 14.5 6.0 5.6 5.3 26.3 23.5 21.2 36% 37% 37% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Paradox Interactive 169.80 15.7 11.8 11.0 9.2 7.1 6.6 33.7 25.8 23.6 59% 61% 60% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% median . 17.2 15.2 14.4 6.9 6.3 6.0 27.9 24.6 21.4 39% 41% 44% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Steam Global Top Sellers D/D W/W 1-week Price D/D W/W 1-week 2021-06-04 Company Position change change average (PLN) change change average Frostpunk 11 bit studios 1,033 -620 -943 478 110 0% 197% 78.71 Frostpunk: SP 11 bit studios 509 +120 -115 684 88 0% 0% 88.00 Frostpunk: GOTY 11 bit studios 545 +115 -432 470 168 0% 57% 141.86 Blair Witch Bloober Team 2000+ - - 1,781 - - - 110.00 Cyberpunk 2077 CD Projekt 98 -36 -82 57 199 0% 25% 181.86 The Witcher 3: WH CD Projekt 1,232 -369 -1126 448 100 0% 400% 65.71 The Witcher 3: WH (GOTY) CD Projekt 613 -272 -608 226 150 0% 400% 98.57 Green Hell Creepy Jar 356 -48 -36 248 90 0% 0% 82.29 House Flipper - HGTV DLC PlayWay 2000+ - - 1,862 - - - 36.00 Dying Light Techland 52 -14 +214 79 34 0% -66% 43.43 Source: Steam (Valve Corporation), mBank
Steam Wishlist D/D W/W 1-week Release 2021-06-04 Company Position change change average date Alaskan Truck Simulator Movie Games 90 - +5 92 Soon Bum Simulator PlayWay 65 +1 +6 67 Q2 2021 I am Your President PlayWay 119 +1 +6 121 Soon Junkyard Simulator PlayWay 76 +1 +3 77 2021 Builders of Egypt PlayWay 30 - +1 30 Q2 2021 Source: Steam (Valve Corporation), mBank
12 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Clothing & Footwear EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Poland CCC 117.65 ------LPP 11,360 ------VRG 3.85 12.7 9.3 7.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 30.3 16.7 13.6 7% 9% 9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% median 12.7 9.3 7.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 30.3 16.7 13.6 7% 9% 9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% International ABC Mart 6,480 15.0 9.8 8.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 31.8 22.1 19.9 12% 16% 16% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Adidas 298.95 18.4 15.4 13.6 2.7 2.5 2.3 38.9 29.9 25.2 15% 16% 17% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% Assoc Brit Foods 2,346 9.2 7.2 6.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 26.8 17.0 15.5 13% 15% 15% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Caleries 26.93 61.0 5.9 5.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 - 15.5 14.9 1% 6% 7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Crocs 101.03 18.4 16.4 14.8 3.8 3.5 3.3 25.8 23.3 20.6 21% 22% 22% - - - Foot Locker 62.37 9.2 6.3 6.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 23.6 13.2 12.1 7% 10% 11% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% H&M 211.25 8.4 7.7 7.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 34.5 23.4 21.0 18% 19% 19% 2.8% 3.6% 3.8% Hugo Boss 46.78 7.7 6.3 5.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 48.4 24.0 18.7 20% 22% 23% 1.8% 3.1% 4.4% Inditex 31.64 19.1 13.4 12.2 4.3 3.5 3.2 - 30.7 26.5 23% 26% 27% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% Lululemon 317.36 37.9 28.4 23.4 8.9 6.8 5.9 69.1 49.0 39.6 24% 24% 25% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nike 134.17 24.6 20.2 17.8 3.9 3.5 3.2 42.7 33.8 28.8 16% 17% 18% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% Under Armour 22.15 11.2 8.5 6.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 - 64.8 43.2 7% 8% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% median . 16.7 9.2 8.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 34.5 23.7 20.8 15% 17% 18% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
Luxury, e-Commerce, Grocery Retail EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 Luxury Goods Estee Lauder 302.88 19.7 16.7 14.7 4.4 3.9 3.5 51.0 43.5 37.6 22% 23% 24% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Hermes Inter 1,155 37.3 32.9 28.6 15.0 13.4 12.1 68.0 59.2 52.3 40% 41% 42% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Kering 741.20 17.1 15.2 13.9 6.1 5.6 5.2 32.9 28.2 25.4 36% 37% 37% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% LVMH 654.30 21.3 18.8 16.8 6.1 5.6 5.2 42.7 36.6 32.4 29% 30% 31% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% Moncler 58.18 21.4 17.6 15.7 8.2 7.0 6.3 42.1 34.1 29.8 39% 40% 40% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% median 21.3 17.6 15.7 6.1 5.6 5.2 42.7 36.6 32.4 36% 37% 37% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% e-Commerce Allegro 59.18 32.0 27.1 22.2 13.7 10.8 8.6 56.1 45.2 35.7 43% 40% 39% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Answear 32.50 ------Alibaba 217.04 18.5 15.2 12.0 5.3 4.1 3.5 20.8 18.1 14.6 29% 27% 29% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Amazon 3,187 23.8 19.3 15.5 3.6 3.0 2.6 52.3 39.9 29.8 15% 16% 17% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Asos 4,850 15.0 13.0 11.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 34.5 30.4 25.1 8% 8% 8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Boohoo 305.50 20.9 17.2 13.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 35.5 28.0 22.5 10% 9% 9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Ebay 64.07 11.1 10.2 9.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 15.8 13.9 12.4 35% 35% 36% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% Etsy 165.74 32.4 25.9 19.7 9.6 8.1 6.6 51.8 39.7 31.7 30% 31% 33% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jd.Com 75.52 22.0 15.0 11.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 36.4 27.0 19.7 3% 3% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lojas Americanas 21.32 6.8 5.8 5.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 41.0 29.2 27.3 14% 15% 18% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% Magazine Luiza 20.50 62.1 44.0 32.7 3.7 3.1 2.5 - - 69.0 6% 7% 8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Mercadolibre 1,324 - - 53.3 10.8 7.7 5.7 - - - 3% 6% 11% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Overstock.Com 90.93 37.4 26.3 22.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 65.3 40.1 31.8 4% 5% 6% 0.2% 0.2% - Via Varejo 14.35 10.3 8.3 9.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 32.8 21.1 31.7 8% 9% 9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% Vipshop Holdings 23.24 7.9 6.4 5.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 13.3 11.1 9.6 8% 8% 8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Zalando 93.14 35.9 29.6 24.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 - - 61.0 7% 7% 7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Zozo 3,850 26.0 23.1 20.7 8.0 7.3 6.7 40.1 35.5 31.7 31% 32% 33% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% median 22.0 17.2 14.6 3.0 2.5 2.1 36.4 29.2 29.8 9% 9% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Retail Dino 286.10 ------Eurocash 15.16 ------Jeronimo Martins 15.90 ------Carrefour 17.26 4.5 4.3 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 12.7 11.4 10.3 6% 7% 7% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% AXFood 230.90 11.1 10.8 10.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 25.1 24.7 24.7 9% 9% 9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Tesco 225.70 6.7 5.8 5.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 17.1 11.3 10.3 6% 7% 7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Ahold 24.05 6.4 6.3 6.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 13.0 12.4 11.7 8% 8% 8% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% X 5 Retail 2,255 5.6 4.8 4.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 14.7 12.4 12.4 12% 12% 12% 8.5% 9.4% 10.6% Magnit 5,489 3.9 3.5 3.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 13.6 13.0 11.7 11% 11% 10% 9.6% 9.1% 9.7% Sonae 0.80 7.7 7.2 6.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 12.2 11.4 13.3 9% 10% 10% 6.3% 6.3% 7.5% median . 6.4 5.8 5.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 13.6 12.4 11.7 9% 9% 9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% Source: Bloomberg, mBank
13 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Global Markets Overview Index Date Open Maximum Minimum Close Change DJIA 2021-06-03 34,550.31 34,667.41 34,334.41 34,577.04 -0.07% S&P 500 2021-06-03 4,191.43 4,204.39 4,167.93 4,192.85 -0.36% NASDAQ 2021-06-03 13,655.75 13,684.13 13,548.93 13,614.51 -1.03% DAX 2021-06-03 15,591.54 15,657.15 15,477.32 15,632.67 +0.19% CAC 40 2021-06-03 6,518.58 6,522.23 6,473.67 6,507.92 -0.21% FTSE 100 2021-06-03 7,108.00 7,108.04 7,013.85 7,064.35 -0.61% WIG20 2021-06-02 2,234.69 2,253.32 2,233.99 2,252.26 +0.85% BUX 2021-06-03 46,736.89 47,536.10 46,734.63 47,422.77 +1.47% PX 2021-06-03 1,174.22 1,176.00 1,170.85 1,174.71 +0.08% RTS 2021-06-03 2,147.35 2,160.11 2,121.21 2,142.91 -0.10% SOFIX 2021-06-03 534.77 542.08 534.77 541.27 +1.22% BET 2021-06-03 11,582.46 11,662.78 11,568.12 11,604.44 +0.19% XU100 2021-06-03 1,434.72 1,441.15 1,411.52 1,428.13 -0.18% BETELES 2021-06-03 128.97 129.33 128.18 129.22 +0.16% NIKKEI 2021-06-03 28,890.39 29,157.16 28,879.15 29,058.11 +0.39% SHCOMP 2021-06-03 3,595.42 3,618.51 3,584.21 3,584.21 -0.36% Copper (LME) 2021-06-03 10,133.00 10,178.50 9,762.00 9,788.50 -3.54% Crude Oil (Brent) 2021-06-03 70.77 71.47 70.19 70.91 +0.16% USD/PLN 2021-06-03 3.650 3.684 3.648 3.676 +0.70% EUR/PLN 2021-06-03 4.457 4.465 4.448 4.459 +0.04% EUR/USD 2021-06-03 1.221 1.221 1.212 1.213 -0.69% US 10Y Yield 2021-06-03 1.586 1.628 1.584 1.625 +0.038 German 10Y Yield 2021-06-03 -0.194 -0.175 -0.195 -0.183 +0.015 Polish 10Y Yield 2021-06-02 1.872 1.873 1.843 1.845 -0.028 Source: Bloomberg, mBank
WIG Sector Index Performance (relative to WIG20) 3 000 2 800 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200
WIG Construction WIG Banking WIG Energy WIG Real Estate WIG Gaming WIG IT WIG Media WIG Clothes WIG Food 2 400
2 300
2 200
2 100
2 000
1 900
1 800
WIG20 mWIG40 sWIG80
Source: Bloomberg
14 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
World Indices Performance 35000 4300
34500 4200 34000 4100 33500
33000 4000
32500 3900 32000 3800 31500
31000 3700
DJIA S&P 500
14400 15800 14200 15600 14000 15400 13800 15200 13600 15000 13400 14800 13200 14600 13000 12800 14400 12600 14200 12400 14000 12200 13800
NASDAQ DAX
6600 7200
6500 7100 6400 7000 6300 6200 6900 6100 6800
6000 6700 5900 6600 5800 5700 6500 5600 6400
CAC 40 FTSE 100
2500 48000 47000 2000 46000 45000 1500 44000 43000 1000 42000
500 41000 40000 0 39000
WIG20 BUX
Source: Bloomberg
15 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
World Indices Performance 1200 2200 1180 2150 1160 2100 1140 2050 2000 1120 1950 1100 1900 1080 1850 1060 1800 1040 1750 1020 1700 1000 1650
PX RTS
550 12000 540 11800 530 11600 11400 520 11200 510 11000 500 10800 490 10600 480 10400 470 10200 460 10000
SOFIX BET
1600 132
1550 130 1500 128 1450
1400 126
1350 124 1300 122 1250
1200 120
XU100 BETELES
30500 3650 30000 3600 29500 3550 29000 3500 28500 3450 28000 3400 27500 3350 27000 3300 26500 3250 26000 3200
NIKKEI SHCOMP
Source: Bloomberg
16 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
Commodities, FX Rates and Government 10Y Bond Yields 11000 72 70 10500 68 10000 66 9500 64
9000 62 60 8500 58 8000 56 7500 54
Copper (LME) Crude Oil (Brent)
4 4,70
3,9 4,65
4,60 3,8 4,55 3,7 4,50 3,6 4,45
3,5 4,40
3,4 4,35
USD/PLN EUR/PLN
1,23 1,80
1,22 1,75
1,21 1,70 1,20 1,65 1,19 1,60 1,18 1,55 1,17 1,16 1,50 1,15 1,45 1,14 1,40
EUR/USD US 10Y Yield
0,00 2,50 -0,05 -0,10 2,00 -0,15 1,50 -0,20 -0,25 1,00 -0,30
-0,35 0,50 -0,40 -0,45 0,00
German 10Y Yield Polish 10Y Yield
Source: Bloomberg
17 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
List of abbreviations and ratios contained in the report: EV (Enterprise Value) – Equity Value + Net Debt; EBIT – Earnings Before Interest and Taxes; EBITDA – EBIT + Depreciation & Amortisation; Net Debt – Borrowings + Debt Securities + Interest-Bearing Loans - Cash and Cash Equivalents; P/E (Price/Earnings) – Price Per Share Divided by Earnings Per Share; P/CE (Price to Cash Earnings) – Price Per Share Divided by Earnings + Depreciation & Amortisation; P/B (Price to Book Value) – Price Per Share Divided by Book Value Per Share; P/CF (Price to Cash Flow) – Price Divided by Cash Flow from Operations; ROE (Return on Equity) – Earnings Divided by Shareholders' Equity; ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) – EBIT x (Average Assets - Current Liabilities); ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) – EBIT x (1-Tax Rate) / (Average Equity + Minority Interest + Net Debt); FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm) – Cash Flow from Operations - CAPEX - Lease Payments; FCFE (Free Cash Flow to Equity) – Free Cash Flow to Firm - Net Interest Expense (incl. Debt + Leases) - Lease Payments
OVERWEIGHT (OW) – a rating which indicates that we expect a stock to outperform the broad market NEUTRAL (N) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to perform in line with the broad market UNDERWEIGHT (UW) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to underperform the broad market
Recommendations of Biuro maklerskie mBanku: A recommendation is valid for a period of 9 months, unless a subsequent recommendation is issued within this period. Expected returns from individual recommendations are as follows: BUY – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will be at least 15% ACCUMULATE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from 5% to 15% HOLD – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to +5% REDUCE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to -15% SELL – we expect that an investment will bear a loss greater than 15% Recommendations are updated at least once every nine months.
mBank S.A. with its registered office in Warsaw at Prosta 18 renders brokerage services via a dedicated organisational unit, the Brokerag Bureau, which uses the Polish name Biuro maklerskie mBanku.
mBank S.A. as part of the Exchange's Analytical Coverage Support Programme (“Programme”, https://www.gpw.pl/eacsp) prepares analytical reports for the following companies: Cognor Holding, Comarch, Sygnity, VRG. These documents are prepared at the request of Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie S.A. (‘WSE’), which is entitled to copyrights to these materials. mBank S.A. receives remuneration from the WSE for the preparation of the reports. All documents prepared for the Programme are available at: https://www.mdm.pl/ui-pub/site/market_and_analysis/analysis_and_recommendations/analytical_coverage_support_programme
This document has been created and published by Biuro maklerskie mBanku. The present report expresses the knowledge as well as opinions of the authors on day the report was prepared. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. The present report was prepared with due care and attention, observing principles of methodological correctness and objectivity, on the basis of sources available to the public, which Biuro maklerskie mBanku considers reliable, including information published by issuers, shares of which are subject to recommendations. However, Biuro maklerskie mBanku, in no case, guarantees the accuracy and completeness of the report, in particular should sources on the basis of which the report was prepared prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or not fully consistent with the facts. mBank S.A. bears no responsibility for investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report or for any damages incurred as a result of investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person This document does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or other advice, and mBank is not liable for damages resulting from or related to the use of data provided in the documents. This document may not be copied, duplicated and/or be directly or indirectly distributed in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan, nor transferred to citizens or residents of a state where its distribution may be legally restricted, which does not limit the possibility of publishing materials prepared for the Programme on Cognor Holding, Comarch, Sygnity, VRG, mBank or WSE websites. Persons who disseminate this document should be aware of the need to comply with such restrictions.
Recommendations are based on essential data from the entire history of a company being the subject of a recommendation, with particular emphasis on the period since the previous recommendation.
Investing in shares is connected with a number of risks including, but not limited to, the macroeconomic situation of the country, changes in legal regulations as well as changes on commodity markets. Full elimination of these risks is virtually impossible.
mBank S.A. bears no responsibility for investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report or for any damages incurred as a result of investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report.
It is possible that mBank S.A. in its brokerage activity renders, will render or in the past has rendered services for companies and other entities mentioned in the present report.
mBank S.A. does not rule out offering brokerage services to an issuer of securities being the subject of a recommendation. Information about any conflicts of interest that may arise in connection with the issuance of recommendations (should such a conflict exist) is provided below, and it is valid as of the date of the most recent Monthly Report published by Biuro maklerskie mBanku or as of the date of the most recent recommendation issued for an Issuer, as applicable.
This document was not transferred to the issuers prior to its publication.
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Copying or publishing the present report, in full or in part, or disseminating in any way information contained in the present report requires the prior written agreement of mBank S.A. Recommendations are addressed to all Clients of Biuro maklerskie mBanku.
Recommendations are addressed to all Clients of Biuro maklerskie mBanku.
All investment recommendations and strategies issued by mBank S.A. over the last 12 months are available at: http://www.mdm.pl/ui-pub/site/market_and_analysis/analysis_and_recommendations/fundamental_analysis/recommendations?recent_filter_active=true&lang=en
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Individuals who did not participate in the preparation of recommendations, but had or could have had access to recommendations prior to their publication, are employees of Biuro maklerskie mBanku authorised to access the premises in which recommendations are prepared and/or individuals having to access to recommendations based on their corporate roles, other than the analysts mentioned as the authors of the present recommendations.
This publication constitutes investment research within the meaning of Art. 36.1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565.
The compensation of the research analysts responsible for preparing investment research is determined independently of and without regard to the compensation of or revenue generated by any other employee of the Bank, including but not limited to any employee whose business interests may reasonably be considered to conflict with the interests of the persons to whom the investment research prepared by the Research Department of Biuro maklerskie mBanku is disseminated. With that being said, since one of the factors taken into consideration when determining the compensation of research analysts is the degree of fulfillment of annual financial targets by customer service functions, there is a risk that the adequacy of compensation offered to persons preparing investment research will be questioned by a competent oversight body.
For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of mBank SA which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by mBank SA only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, mBank SA has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Cabrera Capital Markets. ("Cabrera"). Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Cabrera or another U.S. registered broker dealer.
Strong and weak points of valuation methods used in recommendations: DCF – acknowledged as the most methodologically correct method of valuation; it consists in discounting financial flows generated by a company; its weak point is the significant susceptibility to a change of forecast assumptions in the model. Relative – based on a comparison of valuation multipliers of companies from a given sector; simple in construction, reflects the current state of the market better than DCF; weak points include substantial variability (fluctuations together with market indices) as well as difficulty in the selection of the group of comparable companies. Economic profits – discounting of future economic profits; the weak point is high sensitivity to changes in the assumptions made in the valuation model. Discounted Dividends (DDM) – discounting of future dividends; the weak point is high sensitivity to changes in the assumptions as to future dividends made in the valuation model. NAV – valuation based on equity value, one of the most frequently used method in case of developing companies; the weak point of the method is that it does not factor in future changes in revenue/profits of a company.
18 mBank SA - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego
mBank S.A. Prosta 18 00-850 Warszawa http://www.mbank.pl/
Research Department
Kamil Kliszcz Michał Marczak Michał Konarski director +48 22 438 24 01 +48 22 438 24 05 +48 22 438 24 02 michal.marczak@mbank.pl [email protected] [email protected] strategy banks, financials energy, power generation
Jakub Szkopek Paweł Szpigiel Aleksandra Szklarczyk +48 22 438 24 03 +48 22 438 24 06 +48 22 438 24 04 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] industrials, chemicals, metals media, IT, telco construction, real-estate development
Piotr Poniatowski Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 09 +48 22 438 24 07 [email protected] [email protected] industrials banks, financials
Sales and Trading
Traders
Piotr Gawron Krzysztof Bodek Tomasz Jakubiec Director +48 22 697 48 89 +48 22 697 47 31 +48 22 697 48 95 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Adam Prokop Magdalena Bernacik Andrzej Sychowski +48 22 697 47 90 +48 22 697 47 35 +48 22 697 48 46 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sales, Foreign Markets
Marzena Łempicka-Wilim Bartosz Orzechowski Jędrzej Łukomski deputy director +48 22 697 48 47 +48 22 697 49 85 +48 22 697 48 82 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Private Client Sales
Kamil Szymański Jarosław Banasiak director deputy director [email protected] [email protected]
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