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Have you ever heard of a voters' roll with large numbers of 110-year-olds on it, all born on the same day? Or a small African country whose electorate contains over 40,000 centenarians - and not a few child voters, some of them as young as two years old? Even more remarkable, the country in question, Zimbabwe, has lost about four million of its citizens to the diaspora, as people have fled the results of President Robert Mugabe's ruinous rule – and yet the total electorate is defying gravity and continuing to grow strongly. Welcome to the Alice-in-Wonderland world of the Zimbabwean voters' roll....... In this Report, R.W. Johnson shows just how thorough electoral reform needs to be in Zimbabwe if that country is to see free and fair elections in the future. When R.W. Johnson was Director of the Helen Suzman Foundation in Johannes- burg, he carried out ground-breaking research in Zimbabwe. In particular, he conducted the first systematic political opinion surveys there from the late 1990s to the early years of the 21st Century. These surveys showed conclusively that, from 2000 on, the Mugabe regime had lost the support of the majority of voters. Johnson’s surveys received world-wide recognition and did not endear him to the Mugabe regime. So much so that he was forced to work there under-cover and was once able to watch a half-hour Zimbabwe Television programme all about himself as "the evil genius behind Zimbabwe's political discontent". Zimbabwe's discontents have hardly lessened; and this Report continues the work that was begun more than a decade ago. PREVENTING ELECTORAL FRAUD IN ZIMBABWE A Report on the Voters' Roll in Zimbabwe R W Johnson May 2011 Foreword by Beatrice Mtetwa South African Institute of Race Relations Johannesburg, 2011 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission from the publisher or copyright holder © South African Institute of Race Relations ISBN 978-1-86982-588-1 Cover design by Lime Design, Johannesburg Cover photograph © Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi / Africa Media Online “The people who vote decide NOTHING! The people who count the votes decide EVERYTHING!” - Joseph Stalin R W Johnson is a writer and journalist. An Emeritus Fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford, he was Director of the Helen Suzman Foundation (Johannesburg) from 1995 to 2001 during which time he was responsible for a large number of reports and opinion surveys in Zimbabwe. He is the author of ten books and innumerable articles. He is the Southern African correspondent of the Sunday Times (London). Beatrice Mtetwa is a senior partner at the Harare law firm of Mtetwa and Nyambirai, specialising in human rights cases. Her work has been recognised by her selection as the Human Rights Lawyer of the Year in 2003 by the Justice/Liberty Law Society of England and Wales; by the Committee to Protect Journalists International Press Freedom Award 2005; the Index on Censorship for Free Expression Law Award 2006; the Burton Benjamin Memorial Award 2008 for Defending the Highest Ideals of Journalism; the Sydney and Felicia Kentridge Award for Service to Law in South Africa given by the General Council of the Bar of South Africa; the Traxicux International Human Rights Prize 2009 given by the European Bar Human Rights Committee; the 2010 International Human Rights Award awarded by the American Bar Association; the 2010 Human Rights Award awarded by Zimbabwean Civic Organizations; and the 2011 Inamori Ethics Prize awarded by Case Western Reserve University. Mrs Mtetwa has herself been a victim of human rights abuses, having twice been assaulted by President Robert Mugabe's police. The South African Institute of Race Relations has published this report as part of its commitment to promoting democracy in Zimbabwe: a neighbouring state whose political stability and economic prosperity is not only important in itself but is also vital to South Africa’s success. THIS REPORT MAY ALSO BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN INSTITUTE OF RACE RELATIONS, at www.sairr.org.za iv FOREWORD Currently negotiators from all three of Zimbabwe's main political parties are engaged in trying to devise a Road Map to free and fair elections under a new and democratic constitution. This is, for all Zimbabweans, the holy grail. Zimbabweans had hoped that they were entering such an era at independence in 1980 but history has shown us that the struggle for freedom is not won all at once but has to be the object of a longer and more continuous struggle. But we have always known that we would not achieve the democratic future we want until there could be truly free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. The first and foremost essential ingredient for that is a properly drawn up voters' roll – and this should be a document in the public domain, easily accessible not only to political parties but to members of the general public. Both our South African Development Community (SADC) neighbours and partners and Zimbabwe's Parliament have all agreed that a reliable and accurate new voters' roll must be drawn up. Yet in Zimbabwe even this is no simple matter, as this Report shows. Nor has it been at all easy for many years now for anyone to gain access to the voters' roll: all manner of obstacles have been placed in the way. Having experienced the problem first hand when I dealt with many election petitions after the 2000 parliamentary elections, I have personal knowledge of these difficulties. Happily, the author of this Report, Bill Johnson, has been able to gain access to the current voters' roll as it existed in October 2010 and here at last is a proper analysis of it. As will be seen, it leaves us with no doubt that only a really new voters' roll, drawn up from scratch by a truly independent and impartial organisation, can provide a basis for a democratic future. We also need to ensure that in Zimbabwe both the post of Registrar-General of Elections and positions on the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission are held by truly impartial and fair-minded people, with no political or partisan bias of any kind. Despite all our travails in Zimbabwe, we have many such people at home and many more in the diaspora. Although we long for a democratic and peaceful outcome which will enable the millions who have left to return home, while the current situation continues it is vital that Zimbabweans in the diaspora should also be enabled to vote, in just the same way that the South African courts have determined that the franchise should be extended to South Africans abroad. I commend this Report and all those whose efforts have made it possible. In some cases there are people who have devoted years of their lives in trying to make public the data which is in it. It is a signal service to the people of Zimbabwe that this work has been done. It is my fervent hope that this report will be taken seriously not only by the political parties and Parliament but also by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Beatrice Mtetwa v CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Full Report 3 The Zimbabwean Voters' Roll as at October 2010 3 How has this happened? 8 The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) 10 The Background: Gaining Access to the Voters' Roll 12 Parliament's views 13 A History of Roll Reports and Audits 16 The Delimitation of Constituencies 18 The Diaspora 19 Recommendations 20 Conclusion: The Difficult Birth of Zimbabwean Democracy 20 Appendix 1: The Database Appendix 2: List of “new” voters over 100 years of age Appendix 3: List of 100-year-olds registered with the same date of birth in Mt Darwin East Appendix 4: Full list of under-age voters vii Tables and Figures Found in the Text Table 1 Age distribution of new voters, October 2010 Table 2 Examples of under-age voters on the October 2010 roll Table 3 Distribution of new voters and nonagenarians, October 2010 Table 4 Examples of voters known to be deceased on the roll Table 5 Composition of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) Figure 1 Map showing increase of new voters by constituency, October 2010 Figure 2 Distribution of new voters over the age of 90, October 2010 Table Found in Appendix 1 Table 1 The database used for this Report viii Executive Summary The primary objective of Zimbabwe's coalition Government, born of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) of September 2008, was to lay the foundations for free and fair elections. The GPA itself only emerged after the elections of March-June 2008 in which the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won a parliamentary majority. This was then followed by a presidential election campaign of such surpassing violence that the MDC candidate, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, withdrew rather than expose his followers to further brutality. After some pressure from Zimbabwe's neighbours in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), the GPA was signed. This allowed President Robert Mugabe to remain in power with Mr Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. The GPA called for a new constitution and new elections which would resolve Zimbabwe's decade-long crisis. This arrangement necessarily entrusted an utterly key role and mandate to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). This was problematic, for the ZEC has major credibility problems due to its past use as a politicised and partisan tool of the ruling Zanu-PF Government. Hence, if fresh elections are to work, the credibility and capacity of the ZEC will be pivotal.

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