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Texas Drought: Its Recent History (1931 - 1985)

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Texas Drought: Its Recent History (1931 - 1985) LP 87-04 Texas Drought: Its Recent History (1931 - 1985) '. .._·. Texas Water Commission September 1987 TEXAS DROUGHT: ' Its Recent History (1931 - 1985) by Robert F. Riggio George W. Bomar Thomas J. Larkin LP 87-04 Texas Water Commission September 1987 TEXAS WATER COMMISSION Paul Hopkins, Chairman John 0. Houchins, Commissioner B. J. Wynne, Ill, Commissioner Larry Soward, EJCecutive Director Authorization for use or reproduction ofany original material contained in this publication, i.e., not obtained from other sources, is freely granted. The Commission would appreciate acknowledgement. Published and distributed by the Texas Water Commission Post Office Box 13087 Austin, Texas 78711 II QC 92't D8 R ;i(Q 1'l3/ /'rS PREFACE Of all the aspects of the climate of Texas, the phenomenon of drought is the most enigmatic. In the first place, it is difficult to define. Its impacts are well known: crop failure, rising food prices, water rationing. Still it is not easily characterized: either qualitatively or quantitatively. This is particularly true when drought is in its incipiency. Generally, drought's effects are much more discernible long after the phenomenon has materialized than when it is incubating. Moreover, its rather nebulous nature makes it all the more difficult to predict. Disagreement as to what constitutes a drought has something to do with drought's unpredictability, but the primary factors for the forecaster's nearsightedness about drought have to do with the complexity of Earth's atmosphere and the inadequacy of data with which to evaluate its behavior. With 30-day and 3-month weather outlooks having an accuracy little better than flipping a coin, drought prediction is a most formidable challenge. In spite of the difficulties involved in predicting the timing and severity of the next Texas drought, much can be learned from past droughts to help us better prepare and plan for its eventual return. The authors wish to acknowledge the skills of Jim McFarland for developing the software to manage the data, the talents of Nancy Guthrie, Herschel Janus and Leroy Killough for drafting the figures and Geri Landry for typing the manuscript. ABSTRACT This report characterizes Texas drought by examining certain statistical characteristics of past dry periods and by examining case studies of the most severe dry periods. The analyses were based on monthly precipitation data measured over a 50-year period beginning in 1930. Three-month, 6-month, and 1-year droughts are character· ized in this report. Areal coverage by drought severity, frequency of occurrence and return periods are presented. Also, the worse 12-month drought recorded in the past 50 years in Texas is discussed. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page l. DROUGHT IN TEXAS ..... I HistoricaJ R.eview . • . • . • . l The Meaning of Drought . 2 Distribution and Variability of Predp1tation mTexas ........ .............................. ...... 2 Annual Distribution . • . 24 Variability . .. .. .. .. • . • . .. .. .. 24 M-0nth)y Distribution . • . • . 24 Drought and Evaporatkln . • . • . 34 U. CONSlDERA TIONS IN ANAL YZJNG DROUGHT . .. • . • . 34 Sources of Data.. .......................... .. ...... ....... .. .. .. .. • . 34 Terminology. • . • 34 NonnaHzation . • . 34 Definition of Drought . • . • . 35 Definition of Normal and Wet Periods . 35 Methods of Analysis . • . • . 35 Inherent Bias . 37 UL PRECIPITATION EVENTS . • . • . • . • . • . 37 3-Month Precipitation Frequency . 37 Drought . • . • . .. • . 37 Normal.................................. ................................ ... .. .............. 40 Wet ..... ................... ........ .... ..... ... ....................... .......... .. ........ ... 42 Frequency of Occurrence of 3·Month Drought by Month . 42 6-Month Prectpitation Frequency . • . 42 Drought ................... .... ............... ................................. ..... ........ 42 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS- Continued Normal . • . • . • . 53 Wet. • . .. • . 53 Frequency of Occurr-enc:e of 6-Month Drought by Month . • 53 12-Month Prec-ipitation Frequencv . • . 53 Drought . .....•. , . • . 53 Normal . • . 53 Wet . • . 58 Worst 12·Month Drought . 58 Return Periods . .. • . • . 58 3·Month DTought ................... ....... .•. ................ , . • . • . 58 6+Month Drought . .. • . .. • . • 58 12-Month Drought . 61 i N. CONCLUSJONS ... .....................•............................. .. .... ........... .......... ..... 61 J V. SUMMARY..... ................................. .......... ........... .... ................... .. .. .... .. 61 I VI. REFERENCES . • . 62 I I TABLES l 1. Categories of Draught as Measured by the- 2-Score . • . 35 I 2. Percent Frequency of Drought Occurrence by Climatk Res,ioo and Intensity of Drought . 40 l 3. Drought-Return Periods by Ctimatic Region and by Drought Intensity . • . 60 l FIGURES I I' 1. Index of Drought Sev~rity, 1931·1985, High Plains . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 2. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, Low Rolli.ng Plains.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 5 f 3. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, North Central ... ... ........ ..................... , . 7 l 4. [ndex of Drought Severity, 1931-1985-, East Texas .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. ..•. ... .. .. 9 I 5. Jndex ofDrooghtSeverity, 1931-1985, Trans-Pecos.......................................... .... .... n Ij TABLE OF CONTENTS-Continued ge Page 53 6. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, Edwards Plateau ................... ..... ................. 13 53 7. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, South Central Texas ....................................... .. 15 53 8. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, Upper Coast .. ... .... .. ................. .................... 17 53 9. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, Southern .............................................. ..... 19 53 10. Index of Drought Severity, 1931-1985, Lower Valley ...................... ... .. ..................... 21 53 11. Mean Annual Precipitation, in inches, 1951-1980 ........... .. ....................................... 23 58 12. The Ten Climatic Divisions of Texas ...... ................. .......................................... 25 58 13. Average Annual Precipitation, in inches, by Climatic Division, 1931-1980 .......................... 26 58 14. Percent of State's Total Average Annual Precipitation Received by Climatic Division, 1931-1980 ........... ... ................. .. ............ ..................... .. ...... 27 58 15. Average Annual Precipitation ( x ), Standard Deviations (o), and Coefficients of Variation (V) 58 for the 10 Climatic Divisions in Texas, 1931-1980 ........... .......... ............................... 28 51 16. Major Precipitation Periods by Seasons in Climatic Divisions ........ ... ... ............ ........... 29 51 17a. Monthly Precipitation Statistics: High Plains, Low Rolling Plains, Trans Pecos .................... 30 51 17b. Monthly Precipitation Statistics: Edwards Plateau, North & South Central ............ ............ 31 52 17c. Monthly Precipitation Statistics: East & Southern lower Valley .................. .. .... .. ...... .. 32 17d. Monthly Precipitation Statistics: Upper Coast... .. ..................................... ........ .. .. 33 18. Z-score Frequency Distribution, Llano, Texas . .. ... ....... ............... ......... .. ........... ..... 36 JS 19. Percent Frequency of Occurrence of Three-Month Precipitation Events by Climatic Division io (Statewide Percentage Encircled) ................. ................................................... 38 20. Three-Month Precipitation Frequency Distributions by Climatic Division .. .. ............... .. .. .. 39 21. Frequency of Occurrence of Three-Month Drought . 41 22. Frequency of Occurrence of Three-Month Drought by Month and Climatic.
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