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Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Transportation Infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant Counties

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Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Transportation Infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant Counties Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Transportation Infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant Counties Report Prepared by the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) for submittal to North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) The Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Region In fulfillment of the partnership grant between NCTCOG and UTA as obligated by the FHWA Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study. Dr. Arne Winguth, Dr. Jun Hak Lee, Dr. Yekang Ko, UTA, and the North Central Texas Vulnerability Assessment Team Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability of Dallas/Tarrant County Infrastructure ii ___________________________________________________________________________ Foreword This document has been developed by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) and project partners in accordance with a grant from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). It presents the results of a comprehensive investigation of infrastructure vulnerability to extreme weather and climate change in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Metropolitan Area. The existing and future infrastructure assets within Dallas and Tarrant Counties, including road, rail, and aviation transportation facilities, has been aggregated together with Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps. A vulnerability assessment matrix for the local transportation network has been developed to quantify the likelihood of hazards and the magnitude of adverse consequences. Notice This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the use of the information contained in this document. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trademarks or manufacturers' names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document. Quality Assurance Statement The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides high-quality information to serve government, industry, and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of its information. FHWA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement. Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability of Dallas/Tarrant County Infrastructure iii ___________________________________________________________________________ Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) The University of Texas at Arlington is committed to the full and total inclusion of all individuals and to the principle of individual empowerment. To this end, policies and procedures must ensure that any person with a disability will not, on the basis of that disability, be denied full and equal access or otherwise be subjected to discrimination under programs or activities offered by the University. The University of Texas at Arlington is also committed to the principle of Equal Employment Opportunity in the employment of individuals with disabilities. ADA Coordinator at UTA Eunice Currie - ADA Coordinator Assistant Vice President Human Resources Management and Development Phone: (817) 272-7091 E-mail: [email protected] Equal Opportunity Policy The University of Texas at Arlington complies with the Equal Pay Act of 1963, Titles VI and VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Executive Order 11246, the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967, Title IX of the Educational Amendments of 1972, Sections 503 and 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, the Americans with Disabilities Act, 1990, the Vietnam Era Veterans Readjustment Act of 1974, the Texas Commission on Human Rights Act and the Rules and Regulations of the Board of Regents of The University of Texas System. It is the policy of The University of Texas at Arlington that to the extent provided by these applicable laws no person shall, on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion, age, sex, disabilities or veteran status, be denied employment or admission, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of or subject to discrimination under, any program or activity that it sponsors or conducts. It is also the University's policy to maintain an environment free from discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Inquiries concerning the application of this policy and complaints of discrimination should be directed to the Office of Equal Opportunity and Affirmative Action, 710 S. Davis Drive, Office and Classroom Building (OCB), Room 103, 817.272.2106. E-mail: [email protected]. Web site: www.uta.edu/eoaa. Title page photo courtesy: TRE, Trainweb, Dallas Morning News, Michael Fitzgerald, Texas Forest Service Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability of Dallas/Tarrant County Infrastructure iv ___________________________________________________________________________ What is NCTCOG? The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) is a voluntary association of cities, counties, school districts, and special districts which was established in January 1966 to assist local governments in planning for common needs, cooperating for mutual benefit, and coordinating for sound regional development. It serves a 16-county metropolitan region centered around the two urban centers of Dallas and Fort Worth. Currently the Council has 242 members, including 16 counties, 169 cities, 22 independent school districts, and 31 special districts. The area of the region is approximately 12,800 square miles, which is larger than nine states, and the population of the region is over 6.5 million, which is larger than 38 states. NCTCOG’s structure is relatively simple; each member government appoints a voting representative from the governing body. These voting representatives make the General Assembly which annually elects a 15-member Executive Board. The Executive Board is supported by policy development, technical advisory, and study committees, as well as a professional staff of 311 persons. NCTCOG’s offices are located in Arlington in the Centerpoint Two Building at 616 Six Flags Drive (approximately one-half mile south of the main entrance to Six Flags Over Texas). P. O. Box 5888 Arlington, Texas 76005-5888 (817) 640-3300 NCTCOG’s Department of Transportation Since 1974, NCTCOG has served as the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for transportation for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. NCTCOG’s Department of Transportation is responsible for the regional planning process for all modes of transportation. The department provides technical support and staff assistance to the Regional Transportation Council and its technical committees, which compose the MPO policy- making structure. In addition, the department provides technical assistance to the local governments of North Central Texas in planning, coordinating, and implementing transportation decisions. Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability of Dallas/Tarrant County Infrastructure v ___________________________________________________________________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is an initial assessment of the vulnerability of North Central Texas (NCT) transportation infrastructure as part of the FHWA Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study. It summarizes the results from a sequence of meetings organized by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), attended by local experts, and supported by several local government agency stakeholders to create a qualitative assessment of extreme weather and climate change impacts on infrastructure assets with a focus on Dallas and Tarrant Counties (which includes the primary cities of Dallas and Fort Worth). The three major elements of the climate impact vulnerability assessment are the following: 1. A compilation of historical climate data and projected future climate information for the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Metropolitan Area. The UTA climate group (A. Winguth) gathered climate and weather data from 1900 to 2010 to interpret the historic trends in extremes and variability of temperature and precipitation suggesting an increase in temperature, particularly in the summer season, and an increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity, primarily during the spring season. Historic weather-related disruption of transportation is mainly related to extreme events like snow and ice storms as well as damages by severe supercell-type thunderstorms. Future climate prediction suggests extreme temperatures of up to 125 °F by the end of 21st century, exceeding historic heat waves by 12 °F. By 2050, soil moisture is reduced by 10-15% in all seasons compared to historic values due to increase in temperatures. This suggests a higher risk of infrastructure damage by cracking and, together with elevated temperatures, a higher-than-present risk of fires, particularly in wooded neighborhoods. Higher likelihood of drought will also amplify the urban heat island, particularly during summer months, that can result in up to 10 °F temperature difference between downtown Dallas and adjacent rural locations. An increase in mean rainfall by up to 10% and severe thunderstorms by up to 40% in the spring season will likely lead to a higher risk of flooding affecting the infrastructure. Extreme flooding events exceeding historic floods are expected as a result of more tropical storm systems occurring in the fall season. 2. The NCT criticality assessment
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