Issue 174, Year 4 September 23, 2018 UK £2 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Interview Saudi writer Tripoli Ahmed al-Duwaihi spinning on prospects out of control

of modernity Page 22 Page 10 Syria’s war within the war expected to continue despite downing of Russian plane ► Israel says its F-16 fighter jets attacked a facility in northern Syria to prevent “systems to manufacture accurate and lethal weapons” from being “transferred on behalf of Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

Thomas Seibert Russia said Syrian air-defence sys- tems shot the plane down shortly after Israeli jets hit the area and Istanbul accused Israel of creating the dan- gerous conditions by failing to srael could face some limits give sufficient notice. The Russian on its ability to strike Iranian Embassy in Tel Aviv spoke of “irre- targets in Syria following the sponsible and unfriendly actions” I downing of a Russian mili- by the Israeli Air Force. tary plane but is unlikely to suf- In 2015, the Kremlin put rela- fer a crippling setback for its war tions with Turkey into the deep within the war in the neighbour- freeze for a year after the Turkish ing country. Air Force shot down a Russian mil- To contain the political and mili- itary plane on the Syrian border. tary fallout from the September 17 Russia, however, shows no inten- incident over northern Syria, Isra- tion of doing the same with Israel el sent its air force chief, Amikam after the loss of the IL-20. Norkin, to Moscow. He briefed Israel says its F-16 fighter jets at- Russian officials on the initial Is- tacked a facility in northern Syria raeli investigation into the crash in to prevent “systems to manufac- which a Russian IL-20 surveillance ture accurate and lethal weapons” Clashes ahead. Israelis look across the border to watch warplanes backing a Syrian government plane went down near Latakia. All from being “transferred on behalf offensive carry out air strikes in the Syrian province of Daraa. (AFP) 15 people on board were killed. of Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.” The powerful air force of the Alex Vatanka, Jewish state has carried out nu- Prime Minister Binyamin Netanya- hoping Russia would not impose Aviv in recent years, is unlikely a senior fellow merous raids against Iranian tar- hu’s security cabinet, said “decon- further restrictions, such as mak- to risk a confrontation with Israel at the Middle gets in Syria in a campaign de- fliction mechanisms” would be ing regions around Russian instal- by introducing overly restrictive East Institute in signed to counter Tehran’s efforts strengthened. lations in Syria off limits for Israeli rules. “It might limit Israel’s ma- Washington to strengthen military assets close Israel is not prepared to stop its air strikes, because that could be noeuvring space in Syria but that to the Israeli border. military campaign against Iran in exploited by Iran, the Haaretz would not necessarily change the “The Iranians can barely The attacks, which have mostly Syria as such, however. Defence newspaper reported. current dynamics,” Ali Vaez, direc- disguise their hope that this spared assets of the Syrian govern- Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Analysts say Tehran is watching tor of the Iran Project at the Inter- incident will be a watershed ment, have been largely ignored Army Radio the military would closely for any move to scale back national Crisis Group in Washing- moment and Moscow will turn by Russia. Moscow and Tel Aviv “do whatever is necessary to safe- Israel’s ability to strike in Syria. ton, said in an e-mail. on Israel.” worked out a communication guard the security of Israel’s citi- “The Iranians can barely disguise “Iran is still focused on consoli- mechanism to prevent military zens.” their hope that this incident will dating the Assad regime,” Vaez Moscow has been sending mixed confrontations following the start Russia, whose air force rules the be a watershed moment and Mos- added, “and Israel remains stead- messages. On one hand, Russian of the Russian military engage- skies over Syria, might restrict the cow will turn on Israel,” Alex Va- fast in preventing Iran from en- President Vladimir Putin refrained ment in Syria in 2015. freedom of movement for Israel’s tanka, a senior fellow at the Mid- trenching itself in Syria.” from putting all the blame on Isra- Israel says, while its attack near jets. Israeli media reported that dle East Institute in Washington, el, saying the death of the airmen Latakia did not violate those rules, Russia closed the air space off the said via e-mail. Thomas Seibert is an Arab was the result of a chain of tragic it is open for improvements. Naf- northern Syria coast for a week af- However, Russia, which has de- Weekly correspondent. circumstances. On the other hand, tali Bennett, a member of Israeli ter the loss of its plane. Israel was veloped good relations with Tel P2-3,14 Anti-Muslim bias in UK underpins wariness about immigration

Mahmud el-Shafey and ethnic minorities too,” said Ro- Kingdom, indicated that 40% of re- across the country. National Health Service (NHS) than sie Carter, a co-author of the report spondents said they did not agree “Anti-Muslim prejudice took dif- they consumed. and a researcher for Hope Not Hate. that diversity benefits British cul- ferent forms, with a tendency to Despite this, dissatisfaction with London The study, which was based on ture and that 52% of those asked stereotype Muslims as a homoge- high levels of immigration was one polling 3,667 nationally representa- said that public services were un- neous community whose values of the main reasons cited by Britons wo major reports highlight- tive adults as part of an overall der strain due to immigrants. and lifestyle are incompatible with who voted to leave the European ed the divisive nature of consultation that involved nearly The report outlined “wide- the British way of life. Union, with many saying the scape- the immigration debate in 20,000 people across the United spread” anti-Muslim sentiment “They believed that British cul- goating of immigrants that was T Britain while the country is ture was under threat because peo- seen during the Brexit campaign dealing with the fallout of the Brex- ple were ‘forced,’ usually by schools has become part of wider political it referendum, outlining the over- and councils, to pander to ‘political discourse. sized fear among Britons towards correctness’ and the sensitivities migrants and the actual effect im- of Muslims. Anti-Muslim prejudice migration has on the country. underpinned broader views about 52% of those asked said A study published September 17 immigration.” that public services were by the British Future think-tank A report commissioned by the under strain due to and the anti-racism group Hope Not British government ahead of Brexit immigrants. Hate stated that four-in-ten Britons stated that migrants, specifically asked said multiculturalism had those from within the European “The Brexit campaign was never undermined British culture and Union, had an overall positive ef- really about the EU or even immi- that migrants were failing to prop- fect on the British economy and gration. It was about foreigners. erly integrate into British society. public services. Foreigners became a scapegoat for “Immigration is a national is- The report by the Migration Advi- all the things that are not working sue but people see it through a lo- sory Committee, released Septem- properly — including in the NHS cal lens. Where people live, and ber 18, said EU citizens living and and in schools,” wrote Rodney their living conditions, makes a working in the United Kingdom Barker, a professor of government real difference — that includes the had little effect on local wages, paid at the London School of Econom- perceived impact of migration on more in taxes, had no adverse effect ics. their community, broader griev- Room for hope. A 2017 file picture shows people attending a vigil on Britons’ education system, were ances about economic insecurity outside Finsbury Park Mosque in north London following a van not linked to increasing crime and Mahmud el-Shafey is an Arab and levels of contact with migrants attack on pedestrians nearby. (AFP) contributed “much more” to the Weekly correspondent in London. 2 September 23, 2018 Cover Story Israel averts crisis with Russia, sees need for better coordination Mamoon Alabbasi onry (to be used) against Israel,” ner with presumed nuclear capa- said Israeli Prime Minister Biny- bilities, situated in the heart of the amin Netanyahu. world’s most turbulent region, it’s London Israel expressed “sorrow” for the also home to about 1.3 million peo- deaths of the Russians but blamed ple born in post-Soviet countries. srael is likely to resume strikes the downing of the plane on “ex- This large diaspora plays a signifi- against Iranian and Lebanese tensive and inaccurate Syrian anti- cant role for Russia when it tailors Hezbollah targets in Syria de- aircraft fire.” It promised to provide its approach to Tel Aviv,” said an I spite the downing of a Russian Russia with “with all necessary unattributed article published on plane but Tel Aviv is expected to information to investigate the inci- the website of the Russian media tread with caution so it won’t an- dent,” said a statement from Netan- outlet RT. tagonise Moscow. yahu’s office. Israel recently confirmed attack- A Russian aircraft was shot down Russian President Vladimir Putin ing Iranian and Hezbollah targets September 17 by Syrian defences eased tensions by describing the inside Syria some 200 times since responding to an Israeli air strike in incident as “a chain of tragic acci- 2017. Friendly fire incidents be- Latakia. All 15 people on the plane dental circumstances” and stressed tween Israel and Russia appear to died, sparking anger in Moscow. that Israel did not down the Rus- have been avoided thanks to a hot- Russian Defence Ministry of- sian nor did it intend to cause it line between Tel Aviv and Moscow ficials said Israel gave them less harm. to coordinate in Syria. On the Israeli than a minute’s warning before the Putin called on Israel “not to end of the hotline are reportedly strike. They accused Israeli pilots allow such situations to happen Russian-speaking Israeli military of- of deliberately using the Russian again” and vowed to take “addi- ficers to reduce the risk of miscom- aircraft “as a shield and pushed it tional steps to protect [Russian] munication. into the line of fire of the Syrian air servicemen and assets in Syria.” He Observers said the latest Israeli defence.” accepted Israel’s offer to share in- strikes were a warning to Syria’s As- formation on the incident. sad regime and Iran. Observers said the good relation- “Putin recognises that Netan- Russia is keen to ship between Putin and Netanya- yahu wanted to send a message to maintain good ties with hu, who have met nine times since the Syrian regime in the direct af- Israel even though Tel September 2015, prevented an es- termath of the Idlib agreement be- Aviv is a foe of Moscow’s calation of the incident. tween Moscow and Ankara but Is- allies in Syria — Iran and “Until now, Russia’s armed forces rael also wanted to send a message Hezbollah. have granted Israeli jets the free- to Iran and Hezbollah that, despite commodate Moscow because a matters more difficult, Israel faces dom to strike targets in Syria at Idlib, there would be more targeted Russian backlash would hinder Is- serious challenges when it comes “The Israeli side bears full re- will, on the condition that a suffi- strikes,” Theodore Karasik, a senior rael’s involvement in Syria. to attacking suspected Iranian or sponsibility” for the incident and ciently early warning is provided to adviser to Gulf State Analytics in “If Russia decides to demon- Hezbollah targets in Latakia, which added that Russia “reserves the Russia,” Charles Lister, a Syria ex- Washington, wrote in Arab News. strate a hard line for an extended Israel had made off limits. right to retaliate,” said Russian De- pert with the Middle East Institute Although a diplomatic crisis be- period, it is capable of interfering “The port city of Latakia is con- fence Minister Sergei Shoigu. in Washington, told the Associated tween Moscow and Tel Aviv has with Israel’s freedom of action in sidered to be Syria’s main port city, Israel confirmed that its jets Press. “The glue binding this gen- been avoided, Israel will have to the Syrian skies,” wrote Haaretz de- the centre of Bashar Assad’s Ala- targeted a Syrian military facil- tleman’s agreement — the Putin- increase the level of coordination fence analyst Amos Harel. wite Islamic sect and a symbol of ity allegedly providing weapons to Netanyahu personal relationship with Russia in Syria. “Russia could, for example, de- the survival of the Assad regime. Hezbollah but insisted the Syrian — will likely tide this issue over for “There will likely be some chang- mand from Israel an even earlier Beyond this, however, it is also response occurred after the Israeli the time being.” es to the deconfliction protocols warning before it strikes, it could marked by a significant Russian planes left Syrian territory. Russia is keen to maintain good between the [Israeli forces] and enforce a no-fly-zone for Israeli presence,” wrote Avi Issacharoff in “Israel is determined to stop Ira- ties with Israel even though Tel their Russian counterparts in Syr- fighter jets near its bases in north- the Times of Israel. nian military entrenchment in Syr- Aviv is a foe of Moscow’s allies in ia,” said a report published by the ern Syria or it could supply Assad’s ia and the attempts by Iran, which Syria — Iran and Hezbollah. Soufan Centre, a think-tank in New army with new aerial defence sys- Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy calls for the destruction of Israel, to “For Russia, Israel is not only York. tems it has so far withheld.” Managing Editor and Online Editor transfer to Hezbollah lethal weap- an important, geopolitical part- Tel Aviv is likely to seek to ac- Even if Russia does not make of The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint Not a scream nor a whimper from Tehran as Israel deals blows

lleged Israeli air military presence of the IRGC and strikes in Syria its allied Shia militias in Syria. over the last five The exception, of course, is an area 85km from the line of demar- Ali Alfoneh months have “ killed some 140 cation between Syria and Israel. people from In July, the IRGC was persuaded Iran’sA military forces and allied by Moscow to pull back from the militias,” the Britain-based Syrian area. Israeli authorities deem Observatory for Human Rights the pullback insufficient and said in its September 17 estimate. demanded Iran’s total withdrawal The majority of those killed, 113, from Syria. It is a demand that the occurred in the past two months. IRGC ignores. Those estimates seem to confirm If anything, the IRGC and its the words of Israeli Intelligence allied Shia militias are entrench- Minister Yisrael Katz, when, dur- ing themselves in Syria, perhaps ing an address at Herzliya college, to establish a deterrence against he said: “[I]n the last two years, Israel. At least for now, Tehran Israel has taken military action seems to be paying the price for more than 200 times within Syria such a plan of deterrence but it is itself.” not willing to admit its losses to Remarkably, the regime in Teh- the Iranian public. ran remains silent in the face of The IRGC’s reluctance to re- Israeli air strikes against Islamic taliate against Israel must also be Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seen in this perspective. As long and allied Shia militia in Syria. as the IRGC and allied Shia mili- Iranian authorities are not ac- tias can sustain the losses, they knowledging their losses in Syria patiently build the deterrence but even as the IRGC and its allies’ if the IRGC and militias fall into military presence in Syria remains Israel’s trap and respond to the at- unchanged and there is no pros- tacks, the deterrence is done away pect for immediate IRGC or allied with and Tehran must embark on retaliation against Israel. Costly adventures. Iranian mourners hold portraits of a young a war for which it is not prepared. Data from Persian- and Arabic- member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who The questions, of course, are The questions, of language open-source content was killed in Syria. (AFP) how long can IRGC commanders produce a much lower number hide the losses from the Iranian course, are how long than the 140 losses reported by public and at what point does the can IRGC the Syrian Observatory for Human The mismatch between the Syr- struggle against the Islamic State Iranian public begin to perceive Rights. My survey of funeral ser- ian Observatory for Human Rights (ISIS) but there is no incentive to the IRGC as weak? Whatever pres- commanders hide the vices in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon for figures and the number of funeral admit losses caused by the Israel tige the IRGC may have gained in losses from the Shia foreign fighters killed in com- services may reflect statistical Defence Force, against which the fight against ISIS is at risk of Iranian public and at bat in Syria identified 48 fatalities errors by the organisation but it is the Shia militias have taken few, evaporating as its losses to Israel since April 1. Of these, 19 were just as likely to reflect the IRGC’s largely symbolic, actions. This become generally known to the what point does the Afghan Shia Fatemiyoun Division unwillingness to disclose the is hardly a source of prestige for people. Iranian public begin fighters, 16 were IRGC forces, ten scale of losses caused by Israel. militias that purport to destroy were Lebanese Hezbollah fighters Shia militia media outlets Israel. Ali Alfoneh is a visiting scholar at to perceive the IRGC and three were members of Paki- proudly reported their gains There also seems to be more the Arab Gulf States Institute in as weak? stan’s Shia Zainabiyoun Brigade. — and even the losses — in the continuity than change in the Washington. September 23, 2018 3 Syria

Viewpoint Idlib understandings set the stage for next battle

military police units must control the situation in the demilitarised zone, while transit along the Geoffrey Aronson Aleppo-Latakia and Aleppo-Hama highways should be restored by the end of 2018, explained Putin. he long-anticipated, “With this agreement we have epic battle to determine precluded experiencing a large hu- who rules in Syria’s manitarian crisis in Idlib,” Erdogan Idlib province has been said. “The opposition will continue postponed. The agree- to remain in the areas where they ment between Russian are. In return, we will ensure that TPresident Vladimir Putin and the radical groups, which we will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Er- determine with Russia, will not dogan does not resolve the contest operate in the area under discus- between Syrian President Bashar sion.” Assad and the rapidly dwindling Turkey and the United States opposition. Rather, it represents have failed to isolate jihadi forces an important chapter in the shap- from those of the legitimate op- ‘Time-bound’ deal. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (Front-R) exchanges documents with ing operations by all contestants position, despite commitments to Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar (Front-L) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (Back-R) and to maximise their fortunes as the do so. Now Ankara is promising Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in attendance during a joint news conference in Sochi, on Syrian endgame unfolds. a two-pronged effort to box in September 17. (AFP) Recent weeks have seen a cre- Assad’s militant enemies by con- scendo of warnings and concerns fiscating their heavy weapons and about a military operation by “eliminating… radical groups.” Damascus and its allies to crush Turkey will be challenged to the insurgency in Idlib and effec- fulfil its commitments and meet tively end the organised campaign the costs of consolidating a Turk- Turkey seeks to use against the Assad government. ish protectorate comprised of rebel Dire warnings from both sides of forces increasingly at each other’s chemical attacks accompanied es- throats. If the campaign against calating estimates of the humani- Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and other tarian catastrophe to come. jihadist groups is to succeed, an Idlib deal to gain It is possible that a battle avenue for their exit from Syria confirming the most alarmist must be found. warnings and worst fears of all As it has on other fronts, Russia parties will be waged but there won for itself an operational role in are very good reasons — based on Idlib. Not only will its forces con- another foothold in how the Syrian civil war has been tinue the longstanding campaign conducted, most recently in the against jihadists — and whoever south — why the battle to end the else has the misfortune to be in war will be fought without resort the vicinity — its troops will be de- to chemical weapons, feature ployed alongside Turkish forces in Syria, faces high risks far fewer bloody confrontations the demilitarised zones to reduce between regime and non-jihadi the presence and the arsenals of rebels, offer an opportunity for the rebel forces, who, until now, were Thomas Seibert ma, said the Russian-Turkish accord Orhan, coordinator of Syria Stud- collapsing cadre of al-Qaeda and supported by Ankara. provided Moscow, the most impor- ies at the Centre for Middle Eastern similar ilk to fight another day (if Washington remains on the side- tant ally of Syria’s President Bashar Studies, a Turkish think-tank. The not in Syria) and, most notably, lines of both the war and its resolu- Istanbul Assad, with strategic, military and agreement could result in a boost result in fewer civilian dislocations tion. As was the case in the recent political advantages. for Turkish-backed rebel forces in than feared. engagements in the south around n a high-risk move, Turkey is “It demonstrates that it is not in- Idlib. “That could force the Syr- The terms of the Russian- Daraa, US support for opposition trying to expand its role in Syria sensitive to human rights and the ian regime to make concessions,” Turkish agreement, announced forces in Idlib appears limited to by entering into an agreement terrible human cost of an assault,” Orhan said. September 17, add substance to the the deterrent value of Washing- I with Russia over the rebel-held Landis said via e-mail. “Russia pre- The Syrian opposition certainly view that the campaign for Idlib ton’s threat to respond militarily province of Idlib. serves its growing relationship with thinks so. Abdurrahman Mustafa, will resemble earlier campaigns in to the use of chemical weapons. On the face of it, a deal struck Turkey and it gains a 20km strip of president of the Syrian Coalition, a Daraa and elsewhere — battles that Only if this red line is crossed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip land in Idlib that had many jihadist Turkey-backed opposition alliance, confirmed the power of the regime does Washington appear ready to Erdogan and Russian President militias dug in. It also forces Turkey said the Turkish-Russian accord and its allies, split the faltering respond, however destructively, in Vladimir Putin on September 17 is to confront the jihadist militias.” provided “an opportunity to put armed opposition into more man- a limited and tactical fashion. Oth- aimed at preventing, or at least de- In addition, the agreement leaves the Syrian revolution back on the ageable pieces and were waged erwise, as the rebels in the south laying, an all-out attack on Idlib, a a basic principle of Turkish-Russian track it started from, namely to re- without producing a massive hu- discovered, they are on their own. rebel redoubt on Syria’s north-west- relations in Syria untouched. The gain freedom and dignity as well as man catastrophe. It can be expected that these ern border with Turkey. Turkish military needs Moscow’s make a complete change in the re- Speaking after his meeting with understandings and commitments Ankara’s immediate concern is approval for everything it does in gime through a genuine transitional Erdogan, Putin detailed their will be only partially fulfilled. Lo- that an attack could trigger a new north-western Syria because the phase.” agreement to create a 15-20km cal reconciliations with the regime wave of refugees from Idlib, where Russian air force rules the skies. Using the deal with Putin to ex- demilitarised zone between rebels have long been a trademark of 3 million civilians and tens of thou- With Russia’s predominance un- pand Turkey’s influence in Syria and Syrian government forces by Russian dialogues with rebels and sands of battle-hardened rebels challenged, a Russia-backed Syrian carries high risks, however. “Tur- October 15. these efforts will continue in the have taken shelter from Syrian gov- attack on Idlib may be off the table key has little influence over radical Russian and Turkish forces will more favourable circumstances ernment attacks elsewhere in the until mid-October but not complete- groups” in Idlib, Orhan said. The conduct joint patrols in the buffer created by the agreement. country. The Turkish-Russian ac- ly. Moscow remains determined question how Ankara is going to zone, whose territorial details The hesitations and shortcom- cord, hailed as a diplomatic success to prevent fighters from Chechnya convince HTS to give up its weap- have yet to be revealed. Radical ings that permitted jihadists to for Erdogan, makes such an attack holed up in Idlib from returning to ons is unanswered. Any failure to groups, including former al-Qaeda remain, however, have not been unlikely for now. Russia. Turkey promised last year live up to Turkey’s promises in the affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and solved. Syria remains at war. With Erdogan’s government, however, to rein in extremists in the province next few weeks could trigger the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, will relocate the agreement between Putin and is trying to use the agreement to- but has not been able to do so. Syrian government offensive that from the zone and heavy weapons Erdogan, the scene for the next wards its medium-term political Under the agreement, Turkish Ankara set out to prevent. held by Syrian rebel factions in battle is being set. goals as well. Turkish troops occupy troops are to disarm jihadists of the Initial responses to the agreement Idlib city are to be surrendered by two areas in northern Syria, around Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia suggest Turkey is facing an uphill October 20. Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident the cities of Jarabulus and Afrin. An- inside the buffer zone and transfer task. Sam Heller, a senior analyst “Mobile patrol groups consisting scholar at the Middle East Institute kara is betting that the latest accord HTS fighters to other parts of Idlib. at the International Crisis Group of Turkish Army units and Russian in Washington. will give Turkey another foothold Russia said the disarmament will think-tank, quoted HTS official Abu in Syria and strengthen its hand in make HTS attacks on Russia mili- al-Yaqdhan al-Masri as saying that negotiations about the future of the tary installations or the city of Alep- “whoever asks you to surrender war-torn country. po impossible. your weapon, he deserves most to Following the agreement with Ankara said “moderate rebels,” be fought, ahead of others.” Russia to create a buffer zone 15- many of whom are allied with Tur- Meanwhile, the Syrian govern- 20km wide along Idlib’s borders with key, will be able to stay where they ment warned that the agreement government-controlled areas to the are and keep their light weapons. was “time-bound.” east and the south of the province There is no consensus between Tur- The International Crisis Group by mid-October, Turkey is sending key and Russia as to which groups pointed out the Russia-Turkey deal more troops into Syria. Turkish sol- among the estimated more than was valuable because it offered “at diers and Russian military police are 60,000 rebel fighters in Idlib are least some hope” of averting a hu- to patrol the zone together. “moderate” forces and which are manitarian catastrophe but could “We will need troop reinforce- considered extremists. Erdogan falter. “In addition to jihadist spoil- ments,” Turkish Foreign Minister said radicals would be “determined ers, Damascus may be dissatisfied Mevlut Cavusoglu said. Turkish me- with Russia.” with an international agreement dia reported that a convoy of 50 mil- Still, Turkey is determined to that, in its view, keeps Syrian terri- itary vehicles, including tanks, en- explore potential advantages that tory out of Syrian hands,” the group tered Idlib from Turkey. The Turkish could result from the latest agree- said in a statement. military already has 12 observation ment. “Ultimately, this agreement may posts in Idlib under an earlier agree- “If Turkey makes good use of the still prove only a temporary re- ment with Russia and Iran. opportunity, it can strengthen its prieve before a final confrontation Temporary reprieve. Islamist fighters from al-Nusra Front ride a John Landis, a Middle East spe- military presence in Idlib and make in Idlib,” the International Crisis motorbike in the city of Ariha in Idlib province. (Reuters) cialist at the University of Oklaho- an attack impossible,” said Oytun Group said. 4 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis Iraq Endless disputes mar process of naming leaders of top Iraq posts

Mamoon Alabbasi tem, the post of parliament speak- er is reserved for a Sunni politi- cian, while the prime minister is a London Shia and the president is a Kurd. Prior to the vote, Halbousi’s he process of naming the most serious rival for the post, parliament speaker, the former Defence Minister Khaled president and the prime al-Obeidi, said he suspected mem- T minister in Iraq since bers of parliament had been bribed May’s election has been marred by to vote for a certain candidate. disputes, serious accusations and Obeidi, who belongs to the bloc U-turns. headed by caretaker Prime Minis- Iraqi members of parliament ter Haider al-Abadi, did not com- elected a speaker on September ment after Halbousi was elected 15, more than four months after but other lawmakers protested the elections, which were compli- that some of their colleagues were cated by vote fraud allegations and taking photos and writing down Not without controversy. Newly elected Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi (C) arrives (AFP) a partial ballot recount. the names of parliamentarians for a meeting during a visit to Basra, on September 18. The selection of Mohammed al- who voted for Halbousi. Halbousi as parliament speaker, “What happened was a mark photos of what members of parlia- and Amiri might agree on Shia pol- candidacy but the party has yet to however, did not pass without of disgrace on parliament. I saw ment were voting for? They were itician Adil Abdul-Mahdi for the announce its own candidate. Re- controversy. Halbousi, a Sunni it with my own eyes… members either offered something or were role but a delay in announcing his ports suggested that former min- politician, won the vote thanks to of parliament were selling their blackmailed by something… In name prompted observers to say ister Hoshyar Zebari could be the the support of the pro-Iran bloc conscience,” lawmaker Majida al- both cases it is a criminal offence. that Mahdi was not the consensus KDP’s pick. led by militia leader Hadi al-Amiri. Tamimi told a local radio station That’s why I am calling on parlia- candidate but a distraction to buy Zebari, who is a maternal uncle Halbousi also received the bulk of in Basra. ment (to investigate it) and let the time. of KDP leader Masoud Barzani, is Kurdish votes in parliament. “When I spoke to him (a mem- public attorney be involved, too. Iraq’s rival Kurdish politicians likely to be viewed as less fitting ber of parliament), he said ‘I am This is a dangerous issue.” also broke with tradition in the for Iraq’s presidency than Salih a buyer and there are sellers.’ I Iraq’s biggest political blocs are fielding of their nomination for given Zebari’s fervent support for Iraq’s biggest political told them, ‘Don’t you feel any struggling to agree on whom to the country’s presidency. The last the secession of the Kurdistan re- blocs are struggling to shame?’,” added Tamimi, who be- field for the post of next prime two Iraqi presidents were from the gion from the rest of the country. agree on whom to field longs to the bloc headed by influ- minister despite the withdrawal of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) “Zebari went from representing for the post of next prime ential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. rival heavyweights from the race, but this term the Kurdistan Demo- Iraq as foreign minister for a dec- minister despite the The incident drew condemna- including Abadi and Amiri. cratic Party (KDP) wants the presi- ade to leading the Kurdish referen- withdrawal of rival tion from Abadi, although he did Traditionally, the largest bloc dency, arguing that it has a larger dum to divide the country. Some- heavyweights from the not direct blame at a specific party. in parliament names its choice number of lawmakers in parlia- one like former Deputy Prime race. “I would like to point something for prime minister for lawmak- ment. Minister Barham Salih would be out, something that has been men- ers to vote on. However, because The PUK named veteran politi- a more suitable candidate be- “[Iranian Major-General] Qas- tioned in the media and by law- some lawmakers have reportedly cian Barham Salih as its candidate. cause he is well liked across Iraq sem Soleimani has successfully makers. There is no need to cover switched sides or joined larger Salih had left the PUK in 2017 to based on the fact he has always reunified Shia forces and secured it up. In my observation of what blocs, both al-Sadr and Amiri claim found the Coalition for Democracy spoken of a united and federal posts for Sunnis that have fol- took place, it is clear there were to lead the largest bloc in parlia- and Justice (CDJ). He has resigned Iraq, something a ceremonial po- lowed them,” Iraqi political com- sides that wanted to make sure ment, prompting both leaders to from the CDJ and rejoined the PUK sition like the presidency needs,” mentator Hisham al-Hashemi told that lawmakers would vote in a discuss agreeing on a consensus so he can be nominated for presi- wrote Iraqi commentator Hamzeh Agence France-Presse. certain direction,” Abadi said. candidate. dent. Hadad for the website 1001iraqi- In Iraq’s post-2003 political sys- “In whose interest do you take Reports suggested that al-Sadr The KDP said it rejected Salih’s thoughts.com.

Viewpoint Iraq’s push back on Iran: Will the effects last?

Sabahat Khan ecent months have cumbent Prime Minister Haider was torched by Sunni and Shia stressed the need to ensure foreign shown important al-Abadi, who heads a fragile protesters chanting “Iran out” — players commit “to not interfere in developments in Iraq’s caretaker government, was third part of protests that began in June Iraqi domestic affairs.” political landscape, par- behind Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the prompted by anger over electricity Iran’s influence in Iraq has its ticularly with regards pro-Iran Badr Organisation. shortages and a lack of clean water. limits and those limits are being to Iran’s influence in With the constitution requiring a The past few months have seen openly tested like never before. Yet RBaghdad. speaker to be elected before a vote the powerful Popular Mobilisation the Iraqi state remains inherently Some of Iraq’s most important on the new government can be put Units (PMU) splintering and prob- weak, struggling to provide basic political figures, such as Muqtada before legislators, Iraq’s political lems between its major factions es- services and rein in corruption, al-Sadr, Ammar al-Hakim and impasse continues to hold. calated with the conflict over which deliver a depoliticised bureaucracy Ali al-Sistani, the country’s most Abadi’s Nasr and al-Sadr’s Sai- bloc will form government. Some and, perhaps most important, senior cleric, have lent support to roon coalitions said they had the PMU factions have experienced contend with regional actors whose a fresh narrative and resurgence support of 180 legislators, which major losses to their infrastructure geopolitics continue to regard Iraq of Iraqi nationalism that aims for would give their more than the 165 due to suspicious attacks and fires, as a legitimate battleground for Baghdad to rebalance its regional seats needed to form a majority. stoking speculation that Iran and its regional manoeuvring. and international ties. However, the pro-Iran bloc vying allies were involved. Coalition politics and deal-mak- At the heart of these moves have for government, led by former With the stakes rising, Abadi ing continue to be crucial for any been interlinked efforts to end Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and dismissed Falih Alfayyadh, Iraq’s national leadership to govern Iraq, corruption, dismantle non-state Amiri claimed legislators had de- national security adviser, head of with dozens of political groups, paramilitary groups and keep Bagh- fected from the Abadi-al-Sadr bloc the national security apparatus and armed militias and paramilitary dad from permanently becoming a to theirs and this gave them the the man heading the PMU. Since organisations scattered around the satellite state for Iran or any other largest bloc. then, prominent figures in Abadi’s country. Many of those elements country. The post-election political dead- coalition have announced support remain ideologically aligned with Al-Sadr’s narrative has proved lock and intense competition is not for Alfayyadh, who effectively still Iran. both highly popular and divisive, unusual for Iraq — in 2014, Maliki controls the PMU, as the new prime Thus, any pushback on Iran from as has often been the case with his was reluctant to make way for minister ahead of Abadi himself. It Iraq can come only from govern- political career. For many Iraqis, Abadi even after losing the election. is a reminder that Iran’s influence ment rather than from Iraq’s state Iranian support over the years has As the political deadlock persists, runs deep across Iraq’s political institutions. helped the country overcome an the possibility of violence breaking landscape. Iran’s influence is undoubtedly array of threats and challenges. For out on the streets is also not a new Another reminder came when 11 entrenched; it can be managed others, Iran’s interest in Iraq vis-a- risk. Shia factions in the PMU criticised but not uprooted. However Iraqi vis its regional strategy is too costly Closely watched for its Shia-Sunni Abadi’s alliance with al-Sadr’s coali- national politics is experiencing the and a threat in its own right. sectarian problems since 2003, Iraq tion, which was announced in Najaf emergence of forces that can ex- While Iraq remains without a is entering its most intense period in June after they agreed to “sup- ploit national sentiments and griev- government since parliamentary of intra-Shia strife. With religious porting the army, placing all arms ances together with regional geo- elections in May, a vote recount traditionalists and Iraqi nationalists and weapons under the control of politics that should secure Baghdad Iran’s influence is affirmed al-Sadr’s surprise elec- versus Iran-leaning Iraqi religious the state, developing a programme the independence so many Iraqis toral win. His Sairoon coalition ideologues and their paramilitar- to reform the judiciary, activating today desire, as evidenced by this undoubtedly campaigned on an anti-corruption ies, an outbreak of violence would the role of the general prosecutor to year’s electoral result. entrenched; it can be platform and promised to rein in become difficult to curtail. continue combating corruption and foreign meddling in Iraqi politics, Tensions are high and the na- holding accountable those accused Sabahat Khan is a senior analyst at managed but not including specifically Iran. tional political backdrop is telling. of corruption.” the Institute for Near East and Gulf uprooted. The Nasr coalition led by in- The Iranian Consulate in Basra Crucially, Abadi and al-Sadr Military Analysis (INEGMA). September 23, 2018 5 News & Analysis Fighting Terrorism

Viewpoint Reaper drones crucial to US keeping eyes on ISIS

gional basing options for the Reaper in the changing environment char- acterised by “ever-evolving threats, Mark Habeeb shifting policy priorities and other sources of political dynamism.” RAND’s goal was to find basing op- ne of the most impor- tions that would provide the widest tant tools employed by area of coverage for the Reaper as US forces in the fight well as the quickest response time, against the Islamic with the focus on “adversary tar- State (ISIS) and like- gets” in and around Syria, the Sinai minded groups in Iraq Peninsula and Yemen. Oand Syria is the MQ-9 Reaper drone, RAND researchers said that, in the latest version of which was terms of “aeronautical geography,” introduced into service in 2017. the best locations for Reaper bases The Reaper, a remotely piloted targeting Syria and the Sinai would aircraft, can be armed with preci- be in northern Saudi Arabia, north- sion weapons and used for military eastern Egypt, southern Turkey, strikes or, equally important, used Cyprus or Lebanon. For military for intelligence gathering and strikes and reconnaissance opera- Still lurking. An Iraqi man holds an Iraqi flag as he celebrates his country’s victory over the reconnaissance. It has played both tions in Yemen, the ideal locations Islamic State at Tahrir Square in Baghdad, last December. (Reuters) roles in the war against ISIS in Iraq would be southern Saudi Arabia and Syria and against al-Qaeda in or Oman. If only one option were Yemen. The newest Reaper model available, however, the RAND study can fly at altitudes of more than concluded that “Lebanon [would 15,000 metres and has a range of be] the single location of greatest Number of terrorism 1,800km. benefit to basing robustness.” Considering the Reaper’s promi- One thing that the RAND study nent role in operations against did not consider was the role that terror groups, the Pentagon is political factors play in securing understandably eager to maintain base rights in the Middle East deaths dropped in access to regional bases from which or anywhere else. Christopher the Reaper can be deployed. A Mouton, one of the study’s authors, report by the RAND Corporation said “we focused on aeronautical explored the challenges of finding geography, which does not directly 2017; Iraq experienced such bases in what the report terms incorporate the political considera- the “post-ISIL” regional environ- tions.” ment, using another acronym for While the RAND study was the Islamic State. RAND regularly intended to provide a purely techni- prepares a wide range of analytical cal analysis — identifying the best most attacks in MENA studies under contract with the US options in an ideal world — imple- Department of Defence. menting its findings will depend on The RAND report starts with the political considerations. Thomas Frank assumption that ISIS’s defeat on the For example, it is hard to imagine battlefield in Syria and Iraq does that Hezbollah, the dominant Washington not mean the group is no longer a pro-Iranian force in Lebanon and threat but notes that “what comes Lebanese politics, would allow the he number of people killed next is unclear.” United States to establish a Reaper in terrorist attacks in the What is clear, however, is that the base in Lebanon, despite Hezbollah Middle East and North Af- conflict against ISIS is entering a regarding ISIS as a mortal foe. For T rica fell substantially from new phase, one that “will be char- political considerations, a declared 2016 to 2017 but terrorist activity acterised by profoundly different presence of such a US base would and safe havens remain substantial, political dynamics because ISIL and be controversial in most Arab a report from the US State Depart- the operations against it will no countries. ment contends. longer play such a central organis- The United States operates Iraq experienced the most terror- ing role in the region,” the RAND Reaper drones from Incirlik Airbase ist attacks — it had more than twice report said. in southern Turkey but strained the number than in second place Af- In other words, as long as ISIS relations between Washington and ghanistan in 2017 — yet the number was a shared concern of just about Ankara mean this option could of terrorism-related deaths in Iraq all of the region’s governments, the become problematic. The United fell to 4,269 last year from 9,782 the United States could secure base ac- States maintains close military year before, the State Department’s cess for the Reaper. As that concern relationships with both Egypt and annual report on global terrorism fades, however, and is replaced by Saudi Arabia, so those options may stated. other issues, base access may be prove to be the best replacement The decline resulted from the lib- Security backslide. A member of the Iraqi security forces stands lost. locations if access to Iraqi bases is eration in 2017 of Iraqi territory held guard at a street in central Baghdad. (AFP) The report’s authors expressed curtailed or terminated. by the Islamic State (ISIS), which specific concern about Iraq and fear Maintaining the ability to strike made Iraq safer but prompted ISIS members and followers to commit peated boasting by US President that internal political developments ISIS and like-minded groups, as to adjust its strategy. attacks here in the United States.” Donald Trump that ISIS is defeated. there could lead to the curtailment well as the ability to keep a close “The terrorist landscape grew The State Department report sup- “In Iraq, we are acting like there’s or termination of US access to Iraqi eye on the locations and move- more complex in 2017. ISIS, al-Qae- ported the assessment of analysts nothing going on there,” Pregent bases now that the physical threat ments of their fighters, will be criti- da and their affiliates have proven to who have warned that ISIS remains said. “I’m concerned about the se- posed by ISIS’s so-called caliphate cal to ensuring that whatever form be resilient, determined and adapt- dangerous even after it was re- curity backslide.” has been removed. ISIS morphs into will not come as a able,” State Department Counter- moved from Iraq and Syria by a coa- The State Department released its As a result, the US Central Com- surprise. With US President Donald terrorism Coordinator Nathan Sales lition of 75 countries. report as US Secretary of State Mike mand, which is responsible for US Trump yearning for a reduction of said. “They have adjusted to height- Pompeo spoke by phone to Moham- military activities in the Middle US troops in the region, the Reaper ened counterterrorism pressure in med al-Halbousi, the newly elected East and Gulf region, “must, may become the main tool in the Iraq, Syria, Somalia and elsewhere.” The decline in terrorism- speaker of Iraq’s Council of Rep- therefore, plan for the possibility of war against terrorist groups. As ISIS fighters leave Iraq and related deaths in Iraq was resentatives, and pledged to help losing access to Iraqi bases and air- Syria, many are travelling to other the main factor behind a Iraq attain security, prosperity and space and of needing to negotiate Mark Habeeb is East-West Editor countries to join fights, Sales said. drop in the number of stability. Pompeo told Halbousi that for access to other locations,” the of The Arab Weekly and adjunct Homegrown terrorists are taking in- people killed globally in the United States supports Iraq’s RAND report noted. professor of Global Politics and spiration from ISIS and carrying out terror attacks. territorial integrity “at this critical RAND researchers developed Security at Georgetown University attacks in their home cities, from time,” State Department spokes- “sequential basing” to identify re- in Washington. New York to London and Berlin and “The security situation is back- woman Heather Nauert said. from Bamako in Mali to Ouagadou- sliding [in Iraq]. There’s no point The decline in terrorism-related gou in Burkina Faso. denying that. ISIS is re-energised,” deaths in Iraq was the main factor “ISIS branches, affiliates and sym- said Ahmed Ali, director of the Iraq behind a drop in the number of peo- pathisers across the Middle East re- programme at the National Endow- ple killed globally in terror attacks. mained active in 2017, including in ment for Democracy, an organisa- There were 18,763 terrorism-related Libya, Saudi Arabia, the Sinai Pen- tion in Washington that promotes deaths in 2017, down from 25,722 in insula and Yemen,” the State De- democratic institutions globally. Ali 2016, the State Department report partment report noted. ISIS and al- spoke at a panel on Iraq September said. Those figures include perpe- Qaeda “continued to maintain safe 19 in Washington. trators, who account for about one- havens” in countries such as Syria Calling Iraq’s government “in- quarter of the deaths. and Yemen, where they took advan- effective” under Prime Minister Although terrorist attacks took tage of fragile political and security Haider al-Abadi, Ali cited recent at- place in approximately half of the conditions. tacks near the US Embassy in Bagh- nearly 200 countries in the world, Sales said al-Qaeda remained a dad and on the airport area in Basra, the deaths were concentrated in threat even as it has had a lower pro- which houses the US Consulate. “It Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Nigeria and file compared to ISIS. “We shouldn’t took only two years for ISIS to es- Somalia, which accounted for 70% confuse that period of relative quiet tablish itself,” Ali said. “Two years of the terrorism-related deaths. Syr- with al-Qaeda’s abandonment of its of bad government will lead to ISIS ia saw its terrorism death toll fall to capabilities or intentions to strike again.” 1,096 in 2017 from 2,119 in 2016. us and our allies,” Sales said. “Al- Another panellist, former US in- Future of warfare. A US airman guides a US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, telligence officer and Iraqi adviser Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly drone as it lands on the runway at Kandahar Airfield. (Reuters) has repeatedly called for [al-Qaeda] Michael Pregent, mocked the re- correspondent in Washington. 6 September 23, 2018 Opinion

Editorial The global threat of terrorism here is some comforting news but still much reason for alarm in the latest US State Department “Country Reports on Terrorism.” The number of terrorist attacks and casualties in 2017 declined, compared Tto 2016. Across the globe, the number of attacks decreased 23% and deaths caused by terrorism dropped 27%. In the Middle East and North Africa region there have been “sharp declines” in the number of attacks and casualties. However, the decrease, which is largely attributed to the severe blows sustained by the Islamic State (ISIS), cannot hide the fact that the peoples of the Arab world remain the primary victims of terrorism. Iraq and Syria are among the top five countries worldwide in which 70% of terrorism-related deaths occurred in 2017. The State Department report, which talks about “dramatically fewer attacks and deaths in Iraq,” cannot gloss over the dark reality of Iraq and its people. Iraqis are in an abyss, one from which there seems no way out. Despite the decrease in terrorist attacks, Iraq suffered no fewer than 1,951 attacks in 2017, which caused at least 4,269 deaths. The report mentions a 77% decrease in kidnap victims or hostages in Iraq but, at 1,900, the number for 2017 is still too high to imagine © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly anything but a life of fear and anguish for most Iraqis. Against the global trend, the death toll rose in Egypt, with 655 people killed in terrorist attacks Iraq’s political system is still last year, a 124% increase on 2016. What’s clear is the potential perpetrators of terrorist attacks lurk everywhere in the region. under the thumb of Iran ISIS has proven resilient and has “adjusted” to the new hard-edged reality of its situation in many countries, including Iraq, Syria, Libya, Ibrahim Zobeidi Somalia and Yemen. As the US report says, al-Qaeda “quietly Not much has changed in the country’s state of affairs since the expanded its membership and operations in 2017.” Its offshoots, be they al-Nusra Front in Americans offered it 15 years ago on a silver platter to Iran. Syria, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, remain active. hile the world used direct threats to ensure that who were most loyal to Iran. The other potent threat is Iran, which Nathan Sales, US coordinator for counterterrorism, commemorated hollow victory. The United States and Europe pointed out remains “the world’s leading state the Interna- Hundreds of thousands of know better than anyone that sponsor of terrorism” as it pursues its “terrorist- tional Day of Iraqi demonstrators had pinned what has happened in Iraq was related and destabilising activities through the Democracy on their hopes on the United simply a form of assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ al-Quds September 15, States and on Iraqi judiciary to democracy. It obviously meant Force and the Lebanon-based terrorist group WIraq’s parliament offered another support their demands. They had the triumph of Iranian hegemony Hezbollah.” sorry sight of democratic princi- hoped to get rid of the deeply over Western democracy. It was a Sales added: “The Iranian government main- ples put to shame. corrupt old guard that has been total humiliation of justice in Iraq. tains a robust offensive cyber programme and The humiliating manner in monopolising power for years in It was the unrestricted licensing has sponsored cyber-attacks against foreign which the election of Mohammed Iraq. Their hopes were in vain. of corruption. On the ruins of the government and private sector entities.” The same ominous faces have Also, many of the factors that provided al-Halbousi as speaker of Iraq’s Iraqi people’s unity, it laid the jihadists with fertile ground for recruitment Council of Representatives took been splashed on the TV screens foundations for the rule of militias remain in place. “While the immediate dynamics place and the controversy it and the same old corrupt Iraqi over the next decades. that led terrorists to flock to Iraq and Syria since created are nothing new in brave political system is still in place. Now that the Iraqi parliament 2014 have diminished,” Sales said, “other factors new Iraq. Not much has changed The really strange thing is that is in the hands of Iranian Major- that terrorists exploit to recruit new followers in the country’s state of affairs Iran, through its same old insolent General Qassem Soleimani, the remained a challenge, such as sectarianism, since the Americans offered it and shameless agents, has next prime minister of Iraq will failing states and conflict zones.” 15 years ago on a silver platter to brazenly and openly interfered surely be the most obedient Iranian Sales did not even mention the outflow of Iran. in Iraqi affairs to ensure that the puppet there is. He is going to have jihadists from war zones, the simmering Pales- During all that time, the next Iraqi parliament is 100% pro- to outperform previous puppets of tinian-Israeli conflict, the inadequate policies Americans have done nothing in Iranian and it got what it wanted the likes of Haider al-Abadi, Nuri for youth cobbled together by MENA govern- ments and the lack of an integrationist approach Iraq except try to accommodate while the United States and the al-Maliki and Ibrahim al-Jafari in towards vulnerable young Muslims in the West. Iran and its Iraqi proxies, even rest of the free world watched. serving Iran’s interests and helping The war on terrorism has not been won and may when the latter were jeopardising The next strange thing is when it overcome its financial and oil not be — at least not anytime soon. US interests in the entire region. the spokeswoman of the US crisis. The first to congratulate Department of State not only The presidency of the republic Halbousi — after Iran, of course congratulated Halbousi but will not be any better than the Iran’s cyber mischief — was the US government. praised him and his previous government or the parliament. It is n an attempt to intimidate their neighbours The United Nations and the services to the United States, bound to be a mere department of and the West ahead of US sanctions that will European Union soon followed especially his unwavering al-Hashed al-Shaabi, the Popular go into full effect in November, Iranian suit. This happened even though support for American interests in Mobilisation militias. The office hackers are orchestrating a campaign of many have either read or heard Anbar. of president will no doubt be mischief with the suspected support of their dangerous testimonies by current Spokeswoman Heather Nauert offered to one of the leaders of the government. and former representatives and did not omit to mention that Patriotic Union of Kurdistan or of IFireEye, an international firm specialising in ministers that Halbousi had spent Halbousi became governor of the Democratic National Union of cybersecurity, has revealed another example of about $30 million to ensure his Anbar thanks to the support and Kurdistan on the condition that Iranian bellicosity. The firm said Iranian hackers victory and that the heads of pro- help of the occupation forces. the holder of the office accepts to are engaging in “spear-phishing” e-mail cam- Iranian militias had unabashedly The United States was aware that be president without governing paigns to steal information from computers and infect others. The group is referred to as APT33, and in broad daylight exerted Halbousi was among the Sunni and that he just devotes his time an acronym for “advanced persistent threat.” pressure inside parliament and members of the Iraqi government to grabbing as many spoils as Under the guise of offering jobs in the oil and he can for himself, his family gas sector, the hackers target companies and members, his party members and public institutions in the Middle East, the United then whatever may be left for the States and Japan. The targets are active in people, in that order. disparate sectors such as energy, business, What has been happening in insurance, utilities and even education. Iraq and continues to happen FireEye said the hackers use Farsi and are today is a tragedy by all measures active during the Iranian workweek, leading and standards. Yet, the United investigators to believe the Iranian government States did not shed a tear for the may be backing the malicious operation. demise of democracy on the Iraqi “Since we started tracking APT33 in 2013, their sophistication has definitely improved,” Alister altar. Nothing really bothered Shepherd, director of a FireEye subsidiary, told the United States in Iraq, not the the Associated Press. The Iranian hackers, he brazen flaunting of justice nor the said, manage “to meet their objectives, which is subversion of the constitution nor to compromise institutions in both the govern- the trampling of human rights. ment and private sector and steal data.” In Iraq, there was not even a Iranian hackers’ fingerprints are believed to whimper from the supreme Shia have been all over previous hacking campaigns, authorities, nor from the judges including ones that targeted Saudi oil installa- nor from the men of the street as tions in 2012 and 2016. the new great era of Halbousian Clearly, thwarting Iranian activities will democracy dawned on the country. require greater preparedness in the region as well as a long-term effort to close the skills gap that hinders Arab countries’ ability to deal with Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi writer this particular form of Iranian aggression. Wheeling and dealing. Iraqi lawmakers attend the first session of the new and US publisher of The Arab Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, on September 3. (Reuters) Weekly. September 23, 2018 7 Opinion

Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are Published by Al Arab both trading in the Palestinian cause Publishing House

Farouk Yousef Publisher It is essential for the international community to realise that and Group Executive Editor UNRWA has nothing to do with politics and politicking. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Editor-in-Chief s it possible to examine the and politicking. Therefore, Ramallah-based Palestinian undermining UNRWA Oussama Romdhani Authority and Gaza-based demonstrates a departure from Hamas without considering the human values that were Managing Editor that the Palestinian people supposed to compensate, at least Iman Zayat did not elect its representa- partly, for the catastrophic losses Itives nor voice its opinions via its wrought by politics. Deputy Managing Editor seemingly embarrassed cultured The United States, as well as and Online Editor elites? other countries involved with the Mamoon Alabbasi Fatah and Hamas, with their Palestinian question, has always bickering, arguments, scheming, been free to adopt whatever Senior Editor machinations, questionable positions it finds in tune with its John Hendel projects, occult sources of policies regarding the Palestinian funding and hidden relations, Authority and Hamas. These Chief Copy Editor are in one sphere, while the policies have always been based Richard Pretorius people who bear the brunt and on these countries’ strategic tragedy of the Palestinian cause relationships with Israel. Copy Editor are in another, faraway sphere The same freedom of choice Stephen Quillen altogether, somewhere where can be applied in the context they are only seen with a pitiful of the Palestinian cause itself. East/West Section Editor eye. Hamas and the Palestinian There are two ways of looking at Mark Habeeb Authority are fighting for this cause. One can see it as an Gulf Section Editor positions of influence but what issue involving two aspects, a Disconnect. A 2017 file picture shows Fatah’s Azzam al-Ahmad (R) and Mohammed Alkhereiji and where are these coveted purely abstract aspect involving Saleh al-Aruri (L) of Hamas signing a reconciliation deal at the Egyptian positions? a question of rights and a purely intelligence services headquarters in Cairo. (AFP) Society and Travel The problem of the Trump materialistic aspect involving the Sections Editor administration is that it does plight of an entire people. Samar Kadi not see any difference between The other way of looking at The problem faced by many and keep a silence of satisfaction UNRWA, the UN body created the Palestinian cause is that it trying to make sense of the when they win. This aspect Syria and Lebanon to help Palestinian refugees, has turned into a battle between political manoeuvrings between has become clear to those Section Editor and the Palestine Liberation Hamas and the Palestinian Hamas and the Palestinian who have a political interest Simon Speakman Cordall Organisation’s representation Authority, two forces fighting Authority lies in the intentional in the Palestinian issue. Israel in the United States. This is not over the Palestinian cause not confusion between the is the first to know this and is Contributing Editor out of ignorance or stupidity but for the lofty purposes of serving Palestinians as a people and the the keeper of secrets for both Rashmee Roshan Lall rather out of sly malice and a it, defending it and preserving political entities that claim to parties. desire to confuse the facts. its foundations, which relate to represent them while using them If Israel had wished to Contributing Analyst Unfortunately, since the rights and people, but for low as human shields to hide their conclude a final settlement on Ed Blanche Oslo Accords, events and purpose of monopolising it as a greed. its terms, it would not encounter developments have shown that front and milking it for their own The emotional thread tying any dissenting voices within Senior Correspondents confronting the Palestinian benefits as long as circumstances the two, the Palestinians and either Hamas or the Palestinian Mahmud el-Shafey (London) Authority and Hamas is allow. their so-called representatives, Authority. However, Israel Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) inseparable from harming the Both camps have used the should be cut off forcibly to free prefers for the two mongers Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) interests of the Palestinian Palestinian cause to beg or many of a guilt complex. to continue their business as people, who, because of lack of blackmail. They’ve offered it Whether in their dealings with it waits for the appropriate Regular Columnists enthusiasm by the international more than once on the sacrificial donor countries or with Israel, historical moment to launch its Claude Salhani community, still need a helping altar of their interests, which the actions of Hamas and the own project that will sidestep Yavuz Baydar hand. do not exclude Israel, the real Palestinian Authority reflect them. It knows that they have no It is essential for the enemy of the Palestinian cause, a state of disconnect between future given the state of despair Correspondents international community an enemy that refuses to see the them and the Palestinian cause. of the Palestinian people. Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) to realise that UNRWA has Palestinian rights as rights or the They are like two merchants. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) nothing to do with politics Palestinian people as people. They get angry when they lose Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi The ‘other’ is hounded in Germany. Sound familiar? Designers Rashmee Roshan Lall Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali Germany’s problems, just like those of Italy, cannot be seen in isolation and their response can no longer be dismissed as a temporary slide. he sacking of a Ger- people in Chemnitz in eastern Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. officials in Europe’s biggest Contact editor at: man domestic intel- Germany. Chemnitz, where the He has supported Maassen in economy start to seem suspect. [email protected] ligence chief over Nazi concentration camp of the public spat with Merkel by So, too, the sympathies of a his public comments Flossenburg was located, has finding him a plum new job as key domestic agency meant to on far-right unrest been in a ferment since August his deputy. prevent the shame and horror of underlines the extent 26. After a German man was Seehofer’s motives are a second Holocaust, this time, Tto which the migration debate is stabbed to death allegedly by obvious. Migration is a hot- say with dark-skinned migrants Al Arab Publishing House roiling Europe. It is turning gov- an Iraqi and a Syrian, the far- button issue on his Christian and Muslims. Quadrant Building ernments, state agencies, cities, right began protesting, in ever Social Union party’s home In Italy, Carla Nespolo, 177-179 Hammersmith Road communities and family units more baleful ways. There have turf, Bavaria, which goes to the president of an anti-fascist London W6 8BS into camps — Us versus Them, been numerous accounts from polls October 14. Bavaria was group, has said it straight off: anti-migrant versus pro-migrant. Middle Easterners in Chemnitz one of the main entry routes to “Migrants in Italy have taken the The rivalry is over the merits of vigilantes throwing bottles, Germany for Syrian refugees place of Jews during fascism. of non-white, non-Christian firecrackers and insults at them. in 2015 and 2016 and the AfD is This is one of the most far-right Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 migration to Europe and the The targeting of dark-skinned constantly reminding Bavarians governments since the end Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 morality of white ethno- people in Chemnitz is similar to of that. of fascism.” As for Germany, nationalism. the rash of attacks on Moroccans, Polls suggest the AfD will Maassen’s AfD admirer, Gauland, In the Us or anti-migrant camp Senegalese and other immigrants do well enough to enter the has already referred to Nazi rule should probably be counted in Italy after the far-right League Bavarian parliament and that as a mere “bird poop” in history, US Publisher: Hans-Georg Maassen, who, until party entered the government. Seehofer’s party will lose its an irrelevance. September 18, led Germany’s Anti-racism groups in Italy say legislative majority. This is why Germany’s problems, just like The Arab Weekly USA LLC. Seehofer is determined to talk Federal Office for the Protection there were 12 shootings, two those of Italy, cannot be seen [email protected] of the Constitution. It was killings and 33 physical assaults and act tough on migration, in isolation and their response founded after the second world from June 1-August 1 compared leaning as far to the right as he can no longer be dismissed as a [email protected] dares without fusing with the war to prevent the rise anew to nine attacks but no shootings temporary slide. Dark-skinned Tel: 248-679-6624 of ideologically racist political or deaths for the same period in AfD. foreigners, whether seeking forces such as the Nazis. 2017. It is not just electoral politics jobs or asylum, will continue Though Maassen’s job was In Germany, Merkel has been that is fundamentally altered — to make for Europe. As a report to surveil the far-right, he trying to prevent such behaviour even disfigured — by tensions from the Bill and Melinda Gates seems to have been surprisingly from becoming normalised. She over migration at every level of Foundation noted, by 2050, well-loved by them. Alexander criticised the “hounding” of society and government. deprivation, violence and Gauland, co-leader of the migrants in Chemnitz, only to be The raging culture wars in insecurity will have become anti-immigrant Alternative for contradicted by Maassen, who Germany, which have drawn in worse in parts of Africa. This Subscription & Advertising: Germany (AfD) party, described said such videos were “targeted everyone from the chancellor inevitably means a continuing, if [email protected] Maassen “as a very good top misinformation.” Maassen downward, have dangerous not greater flow to Europe. Tel 020 3667 7249 official” and praised him for earned fulsome praise from the implications. The use of “fake What happens then? having the “courage” to criticise far-right as a “rare, responsible” news” as a label to dismiss Pitched battles in the streets? German Chancellor Angela voice of “truth” while moderate evidence of far-right criminality Concentration camps? Mohamed Al Mufti Merkel’s “misdirected asylum German politicians questioned erodes citizens’ trust in their Marketing & Advertising policy.” his neutrality. government and security Rashmee Roshan Lall is a Manager The reference was to Maassen’s Also in the anti-migrant Us services. Merkel’s tenuous columnist for The Arab Weekly. public contradiction of Merkel, camp, for reasons that have coalition gets steadily weaker. Her blog can be found at www. Direct: +44 20 8742 9262 who condemned far-right everything to do with base The proclivities of senior rashmee.com and she is on www.alarab.co.uk harassment of dark-skinned electoral politics, is German ministers and intelligence Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis Gulf Saudi Arabia brokers Ethiopia-Eritrea peace accord

Mohammed Alkhereiji and establishing peace. “KSA has always been at the forefront of reconciliation efforts London and promoting peace.” Prince Khalid wrote on Twitter. “While audi Arabia’s and the United others exploit conflicts to sow divi- Arab Emirates’ diplomatic sion, KSA mediates, with success- efforts in the Horn of Africa ful outcomes going back decades, S are yielding results, exempli- including Palestine, Lebanon, Af- fied by the peace accord between ghanistan, among others.” Ethiopia and Eritrea and outreach to Djibouti, which could result in a similar deal between it and Eritrea. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki Sheikh Mohammed bin and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Zayed al-Nahyan praised Ahmed signed a peace accord Sep- the agreement as ”a tember 16 in Jeddah with Saudi victory for Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, diplomacy.” African Union Commission Chair- man Moussa Faki, UN Secretary- One day after the signing of the General Antonio Guterres and UAE peace agreement there were the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh first face-to-face talks between the Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan on presidents of Eritrea and Djibouti hand. in more than a decade. The two “The peace deal resulted in resto- leaders agreed to usher in a new ration of normal relations between era of cooperation between the the countries, on the basis of the neighbouring countries. close bonds of geography, history Relations between Eritrea and and culture between the two na- Djibouti deteriorated over a border tions and their peoples,” Saudi dispute in 2008. Arabia said in a statement, adding After Abiy Ahmed was installed that this new phase “will bring sig- as Ethiopian prime minister in nificant developments in the rela- April he called for peace and ac- tions between the two nations in all cepted a 2000 UN-sponsored peace fields.” plan that involved his country ced- Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh ing disputed territory to Eritrea. Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan Ahmed also reached out to Ri- praised the agreement as “a victory yadh and Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia for Saudi diplomacy.” was his first destination as head of state and he asked Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin One day after the signing Abdulaziz help convince Afwerki of the peace agreement to respond to his appeals for peace. there was the first The efforts by Saudi Arabia and face-to-face talks the United Arab Emirates to end between the presidents such lingering disputes are part of of Eritrea and Djibouti in a foreign policy strategy by the two more than a decade. allies to increase their influence in the Horn of Africa and counter “The Saudi patronage of the Iran’s expansionist agenda. peace agreement is yet another ad- The United Arab Emirates has dition to its historic initiatives that been gaining influence in the Horn New phase. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (C), Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (R) signify its international presence of Africa since the mid-2000s, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Jeddah, on September 16. (SPA) and influence in strengthening with a combination of diplomacy world peace,” Sheikh Mohammed and economic and military invest- said after meeting with Afwerki in ments. much-needed security cover for One of the biggest UAE invest- government to develop and oper- Abu Dhabi on September 19. As part of its counterterror- Somaliland authorities because ments in Africa has been through ate a regional trade and logistics Saudi Ambassador to the United ism strategy, the UAE signed an their borders are not recognised Dubai-based DP World, which be- hub at Berbera Port, the largest sin- States Prince Khalid bin Salman bin agreement to establish a military by neighbouring Somalia and al- gan with the building of a large port gle investment deal in Somaliland. Abdulaziz said the signing of the base in Somaliland, where it pro- Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab oper- in Djibouti in 2006. Ten years later peace accord was in line with the vides training and support to lo- ates along the border between the the firm announced a $442 million Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf kingdom’s foreign policy of seeking cal security forces. This represents two countries. agreement with the Somaliland section editor of The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint US policy in Yemen may face growing challenge from Congress

he Trump administra- put a hold on the sale of precision- criticism of the air campaign from 11 the administration notified tion is facing increasing guided munitions to the Saudi Air the United Nations, human rights Congress that Saudi Arabia and its Gregory criticism from members Force. groups and humanitarian organisa- allies were “making every effort to Aftandilian of the US Congress, hu- US President Donald Trump took tions that reported a large number reduce the risk to civilian casual- man rights groups and a much less nuanced view towards of civilian deaths and a severe lack ties” and facilitate humanitarian aid prominent media out- the conflict. His early outreach to of food and medicine. deliveries. Tlets for its backing of the Saudi-led the Saudis, harsh criticism of Iran All this ran up against the Trump With an offensive by the coalition in the Yemen conflict. and desire to show that he was do- administration’s anti-Iran cam- Saudi-led coalition against the The administration, however, ing things differently than Obama paign. In December 2017, for exam- Houthi-controlled port of Ho- says that if it reduces such support, combined to provide unflinching ple, US Ambassador to the United deidah, through which 70% of not only would relations with Saudi support for the Saudi-led coali- Nations Nikki Haley displayed frag- humanitarian aid passes, under Arabia and the United Arab Emir- tion. Trump lifted the hold on the ments of a missile allegedly fired way, the administration’s positive ates suffer but Iran would be the precision-guided munitions to the by the Houthis into Saudi Arabia certification was sharply criticised chief beneficiary. Saudis in the first half of 2017. that had Iranian markings on it to by members of Congress as well as US support for the Saudi-led Some in Trump’s administration underscore Iran’s malign activities the Washington Post. In a Septem- effort in Yemen began under the cautioned that the conflict was es- in Yemen. ber 16 editorial, the newspaper said Obama administration in 2015 and sentially a stalemate. US Secretary Soon after Trump pulled the legislators should not let the admin- involved air refuelling and intel- of Defence James Mattis, during United States out of the Iran nuclear istration’s flouting of congressional ligence and logistical assistance. A a trip to Riyadh in April 2017, said deal last May, US Secretary of State restrictions stand. primary motive was to assure the publicly that Yemen needed a “po- Mike Pompeo listed 12 demands If the Democrats win control of Saudis and Emiratis that the United litical solution.” that Iran would have to comply Congress in the November midterm States had their backs despite their Mattis, however, like other with to avoid crippling sanctions. elections, more onerous restrictions severe misgivings about the Iran Trump administration officials, Those included an end to its inter- on US military aid to the Saudi-led nuclear deal. opposed proposed legislation in vention in regional affairs and con- coalition are likely to be proposed A secondary motive was to send early 2018 that advocated invok- flicts, such as Lebanon and Yemen. and, no matter how much the a signal to Iran, which provided ing the War Powers Resolution, However, continuing Saudi air Trump administration invokes the military assistance to the Houthi which requires the president seek strikes against the Houthis — such Iran threat, Congress could tie its rebels in Yemen, that Tehran’s congressional support for any US as one August 9 that killed more hands by not including a national If the Trump meddling in the Arab world would military engagement on the conflict than 40 Yemeni children — rein- security waiver to restrictive legisla- administration be checked. in Yemen. Mattis argued that the vigorated opposition in Congress. tion. The mounting civilian death toll United States was not a belligerent US Senators Jeanne Shaheen, a Shaheen and Young have warned reduces its support, in Yemen, which was due in part in the conflict and, therefore, the Democrat from New Hampshire, that if civilian deaths do not stop, not only would to Saudi air strikes, led the Obama War Powers Resolution should not and Todd Young, a Republican “Congress may reach a breaking relations with Saudi administration to recalibrate its apply. The fact that the legislation from Indiana, proposed a measure point.” support during its last months in of- was defeated by only 11 votes (55- requiring the Trump administration Arabia and the United fice. In August 2016, it scaled back 44) in the US Senate showed grow- to certify that, for US military aid Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in Arab Emirates suffer a Joint Combined Planning Cell in ing congressional concern. to continue, the Saudi-led coalition the Pardee School of Global Studies Saudi Arabia that was coordinating Members of Congress who op- was doing enough to protect civil- at Boston University and a former but Iran would be the US support for the anti-Houthi posed US military support for the ians in Yemen in. US State Department Middle East chief beneficiary. coalition and, a few months later, Saudi-led coalition were reacting to Not unexpectedly, on September analyst. September 23, 2018 9 News & Analysis Egypt

Uneasy peace. Israeli flag (L) and Egypt’s national flag flutter at the Nitzana crossing along Israel’s border with Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. (Reuters) Forty years after Camp David, Egypt and Israel endure ‘cold peace’

Mona Salem The accords, cemented by a peace “The normalisation failed to gain He blames Israel’s government, kind of high feelings seen in de- and Aziz el Massassi treaty in 1979, saw regional power- popular support because of events rather than its citizens. “In the end, bates on gay rights. house Egypt temporarily shunned linked to Palestinians,” said bank nobody truly chooses his govern- More than 65% of Egyptians alive by the rest of the Arab world and worker Mohammed Oussam. He ment,” he said. were not yet born when the Camp Cairo Sadat was assassinated on October said he could not forget Israel’s Enmity towards Israel often crys- David summit took place but Egyp- 6, 1981. bombing of “schools and refugee tallises over sporting events. tian public rejection of Israel is a orty years after signing the The late president “had great camps” during Lebanon’s 1975-90 Egyptian and Liverpool football constant. Camp David Accords, Egypt courage and a vision for the future,” civil war. maestro Mohamed Salah has been National politics is also affected, and Israel live in uneasy his nephew said, adding that the criticised at home for appearing in a despite decades of formal diplo- F peace, as cool diplomatic peace “has always been cold.” Israel is a hot topic for Champions League match in Israel matic ties. ties have failed to unfreeze other While many Egyptians welcome in 2013, when he played for Switzer- In March 2016, Egyptian lawmak- relations. the absence of war, they remain Egyptian talk shows, land’s FC Basel. Salah said he does er Tawfiq Okasha paid a high price “There is still a psychological hostile to Israel. guaranteed to stoke the kind not make political decisions. for inviting Israel’s ambassador to barrier between us and the Israeli “Egypt’s acceptance of full diplo- of high feelings seen in Three years later, Egyptian judo dinner at his home. Accused of dis- people,” said former Egyptian law- matic and political normalisation” debates on gay rights. Olympian Islam El Shehaby refused cussing issues linked to national maker Mohammed Anwar Sadat, has not translated into “a cultural to shake hands with Israeli rival Or security, he was ousted from parlia- nephew of former President Anwar or popular normalisation,” said “The Israelis have not adhered to Sasson at the Rio Games, a gesture ment in a two-thirds majority vote. Sadat. Mustafa Kamal Sayed, a professor the principles of peace with the Pal- that embarrassed Egyptian authori- Even the country’s all-important Mohammed Sadat proudly keeps of political sciences at Cairo Univer- estinians or the Arabs,” said another ties. tourism industry is a victim of a photo of his late uncle in his Cairo sity. Mohammed. Writer and Hebrew translator “cold peace” — of the 3.9 million office. This uneasy-but-stable status quo It’s a sentiment shared by Islam Nael el-Toukhy said any Egyptian tourists who visited Israel in 2017, Anwar Sadat risked everything in is reflected on Cairo’s streets, where Emam. “We speak of peace, of nor- who reaches out to Israelis faces in- only 7,200 were from neighbouring making peace with Israel at the US many put their antipathy towards malisation then they kill our broth- tense pressure. Egypt. presidential retreat at Camp David, Israel down to their neighbour’s ers and take their land,” he said, re- Israel is a hot topic for Egyptian Maryland, on September 17, 1978. policies towards the Palestinians. ferring to the Palestinians. talk shows, guaranteed to stoke the (Agence France-Presse) Egypt moves to cement ties with Eritrea, enhance presence in Horn of Africa

Ahmed Megahid Shoukry met with Eritrean Pres- Iran and Qatar targeted Eritrea and of Africa, especially in Djibouti the leaders of Ethiopia, Eritrea ident Isaias Afwerki on September Djibouti as countries where they and Somalia, has viewed Doha’s and Djibouti for a meeting dur- 13 and then went to Addis Ababa, could gain a presence in Africa. increasing presence in Africa with ing which a reconciliation deal Cairo another Horn of Africa capital with Iran signed a military coopera- unease. between Ethiopia and Eritrea was which Cairo strives to cement rela- tion pact with Asmara in 2008, signed. Talks also considered end- gyptian Foreign Minister tions. taking advantage of the state of ing tensions between Eritrea and Sameh Shoukry’s recent Abu Zeid described the region as isolation Eritrea suffered because Egypt’s efforts to return to Djibouti. trip to Eritrea marked an- an “inseparable part” of Egyptian of its disputes with Ethiopia. The the region are part of wider Saudi Arabia had been instru- E other attempt by Cairo to national security. agreement gave Iran a military attempts by some Arab mental in reducing tensions be- get closer to a vital Horn of Africa “Egypt aims to have strong pres- presence in the area and analysts countries to secure a tween Eritrea and Djibouti, even country, part of a diplomatic rap- ence in the southern part of the said that proved vital to Iranian position of influence, as Somalia and Ethiopia appeared prochement that Egypt has been Red Sea,” Abu Zeid said. “There is support for the Houthi militia in particularly given to play a major role in this regard. pursuing with several African an urgent need for us to also have Yemen, just across the Red Sea. competition from Iran, The United Arab Emirates also countries. strong relations with countries in The Houthis have threatened Qatar and Turkey. had a significant part in helping Egypt hopes to restore relations this region.” navigation in the southern en- Ethiopia and Eritrea end years of with Eritrea to where they were Egypt’s efforts to return to the trance of the Red Sea and the Bab “This made it necessary for mod- fighting that left tens of thousands before the 2011 uprising in Egypt region are part of wider attempts el Mandeb Strait. This has proven erate Arab states to start acting,” of people on both sides dead. and the resulting chaos in which by some Arab countries to secure a a major issue, not just for Egypt, said Egyptian MP Hatem Bashat, “Egyptian and Arab presence in Egypt’s foreign relations, particu- position of influence in the region, which wants to ensure secure a member of parliament’s African this region means an end to Irani- larly in Africa, were often neglect- analysts said, particularly given shipping lanes through the Suez Affairs Committee. “We cannot an and Qatari presence in it,” said ed. competition from Iran, Qatar and Canal, but to petroleum-produc- stand idly by and watch enemy Tarek Fahmi, a professor of po- “We have made a lot of effort in Turkey. ing countries in the Arabian Gulf states gaining presence in a region litical science at Cairo University. the past few years to bring rela- The main fear focuses on secu- that rely on the routes. whose importance to our national “The absence of moderate Arab tions with all Horn of Africa states rity to the southern entrance of Qatar has an increasing presence security is immeasurable.” states from the region in the past back on track,” Egyptian Foreign the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb in the region, including mediating This might explain why Cairo, years has had very negative conse- Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abu Strait, vital to shipping via Egypt’s border disputes between Djibouti Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are becom- quences for Arab security.” Zeid said. “We are so keen on the Suez Canal and Eritrea. The United Arab Emir- ing a new source of support for stability of and security in the In recent years, Turkey has ates, which has deep economic Horn of Africa leaders. On Sep- Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian southern Red Sea region.” gained influence in Sudan while and political interests in the Horn tember 16, Saudi Arabia hosted reporter in Cairo. 10 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis Libya As clashes resume, situation threatens to spin out of control in Tripoli

Michel Cousins In a clear breach of the ceasefire, rockets were fired September 11 at Mitiga International Airport, just Tunis east of Tripoli’s city centre. It was attacked again September 20 and espite efforts of the UN remains closed. Far more serious mission in Libya and the was fighting that had broken out internationally backed September 18 along Airport Road, D Presidency Council (PC), which leads to the old Tripoli In- led by Fayez al-Sarraj, to end the ternational Airport, destroyed in crisis in Tripoli, there is concern fighting four years ago. that the fighting in the capital is out The clashes pitted one of the of control and won’t end until one Tripoli militias against a radical mi- side is totally defeated. litia from Misrata allied to the 7th “Every day it gets worse. It’s get- Battalion and is an example of the ting more violent,” said a business- complexities and convoluted self- man who fled fighting in Benghazi interest that drive the Libyan crisis. three years ago for Tripoli and who The leaders of the two groups said he was now thinking of return- — the Central Security Force in Downward spiral. Libyan security forces patrol near the site of an attack on a checkpoint in Zliten, ing. “Everyone is staying at home, Tripoli’s Abu Sleem district and the 170km east of Tripoli, on August 23. (AFP) afraid of what is going to happen.” mainly Misratan Somoud Brigade After clashes erupted in late Au- — were once allies. Abdelghani Al- gust in Tripoli’s southern suburbs Kikli (known as “Ghneiwa”) and militias fighting the battalion. Badi vilians, have been killed, hundreds armed and well-organised 7th Bat- between local militias and forces Misrata’s maverick commander and his Somoud Brigade want to wounded and some 20,000 resi- talion and its allies clearly feel they from Tarhouna, 65km south-east Salah Badi fought together four overthrow the PC and restore the dents in southern Tripoli had fled are in control and can take Tripoli. of the capital, UN Special Envoy years ago when Badi attacked the pro-Islamist Libya Dawn regime their homes. The capital appears to Badi had reportedly captured Ghassan Salame managed to bring old airport. that controlled Tripoli from 2014- have started going the destructive a major camp in southern Tripoli about a ceasefire but it did not last. However, with the arrival in 16. way of Benghazi four years ago. from Ghneiwa’s forces and they That is because the Tarhou- March 2016 of the PC, they split It is unclear how Salame and the and the 7th Battalion were poised na-based 7th Brigade has yet to and, in May 2017, Ghneiwa’s forces PC are going to rescue the cease- to strike Abu Sleem. A radical trans- achieve its aim to “cleanse” Tripoli and other militias drove Badi and What Salame did not say was fire. Salame has repeatedly warned formation of who controls what of local militias that have become other hard-line Misratan and quasi- that it was the UN Support he would publicly name anyone and where in Tripoli appeared to be the real power but are considered Islamist forces out of Tripoli. Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) breaching the ceasefire but has not on the cards and could change the little more than mafias operating a Badi wants to destroy Ghneiwa that had, in early 2016, given done so. There were warnings that national political picture. protection racket. and his force and, it is said, take the militias the job of individuals involved would be put “I would not be surprised if Haf- Salame said as much in briefing over the strategic Abu Sleem dis- on the international sanctions list. tar made a surprise visit to the the UN Security Council on Sep- trict. It has also been reported that securing Tripoli for the PC. Salame demanded that Badi and airport, just to show that he can,” tember 5. The security setup, he ex- he was controlled by the 7th Battal- his forces stop fighting and warned said a Libyan analyst. He was refer- plained, enabled the militias to act ion, itself run by Tarhouna’s pow- The 7th Battalion is also support- Ghneiwa that, as a signatory to the ring to the fact that the LNA-linked as predators, kidnapping, torturing erful Kaniat family, and that it was ed by another Tarhouna force, the ceasefire, he had to stick to it, the 22nd Brigade controls Tripoli Inter- and killing people despite suppos- the Kaniats who gave him the green 22nd Brigade, which is part of the implication being that he would national Airport. edly being under the authority of light to attack because of their dis- Libyan National Army (LNA) led be sanctioned and possibly indict- Italian plans for a summit in Sic- the PC’s Interior Ministry. satisfaction with the post-ceasefire by Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. ed by the International Criminal ily in November on Libya forge What Salame did not say was that security arrangements drawn up by The 22nd Brigade has been fighting Court. This has had no effect. ahead but, by then, it could be a it was the UN Support Mission in Salame and Sarraj. with Badi against Ghneiwa on the Efforts to revive the ceasefire very different Libya. Libya (UNSMIL) that had, in early The 7th Battalion is supposedly Airport Road. continued but the situation has 2016, given the militias the job of under the authority of the PC’s In- Since the fighting started August seemed beyond Salame’s or the Michel Cousins is a contributor to securing Tripoli for the PC. terior Ministry, as are the Tripoli 26, scores of people, including ci- PC’s ability to resolve. The well- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues.

Viewpoint One year later, the UN action plan for Libya is dead

n September 2017, Ghassan in mediating Libya’s conflict. The future. working to disarm Libya’s many Salame, the UN secretary- main criticism of the LPA was that Thus, while key international armed groups has not worked. general’s special representa- it insufficiently represented the players backed Salame’s action On September 5, Salame accused Elissa Miller tive to Libya, presented an Libyan people. plan, they were separately pursu- the HoR of favouring its “own action plan for addressing Salame’s national conference ing their own interests in Libya longevity” over its duty to produce Libya’s political stalemate. featured dozens of meetings and and they have continued to do legislation for a constitutional IUN Secretary-General Antonio Gu- town halls across Libya meant to so throughout 2018, effectively referendum and elections. Salame terres called on all parties to seize inform a report with conclusions paralysing Salame’s plan. In May, said he has been “exhausting the the moment to move the country and recommendations. In this way, Paris was the site of another meet- traditional avenues” to move the forward. Salame avoided the challenges of ing between Sarraj and Haftar and process forward and that if no One year later, however, Libya convening a huge forum, including it was announced that presidential progress is seen soon, he would has witnessed further deteriora- security and perceptions of fair and parliamentary elections embrace “other ways to achieve tion and insecurity. representation. Yet it also reflected would take place on December 10. political change.” Salame’s action plan was ambi- the persistent difficulty in physi- Salame’s plan had not set a date for Salame did not say what those tious. The first stage involved cally bringing Libyans together elections. avenues would be. More omi- convening Libya’s major factions in a single venue in the country’s In effect, Paris was positioning nously, he said: “When the politi- — the eastern-based House of Rep- fractured and insecure environ- itself as the key mediator. Italy cal process grinds to a halt, some resentatives (HoR) and the High ment. bristled at Macron’s actions and will believe there is opportunity to State Council, a consultative body The most ambitious aspects of expressed emphatic opposition to force change through the barrel of for the western-based and inter- the plan were the assumptions elections in December and took a gun.” nationally backed Government of it implicitly made about the unilateral steps to leverage its The United Nations has failed National Accord (GNA) — to discuss international context. Since 2014, influence in Libya. In July, Italian to develop a strategy to deal with amendments to the 2015 Libyan the Libyan conflict has been influ- Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte an- this fact of Libya’s civil war. Dis- Political Agreement (LPA). The enced by outside actors, in effect nounced that Italy would have its cussions of national unity figure HoR’s refusal to ratify the LPA se- making Libya the arena for a proxy own Libya conference and Italian prominently, dealing with armed verely hampered the legitimacy of battle. This reality was apparent Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero groups goes largely unaddressed. the GNA and was a central sticking well before September 2017. Milanesi recently met with Haftar The fundamental problems that point in Libya’s political stalemate. In July 2017, French President in Benghazi to boost ties. undercut Salame’s action plan Salame envisioned a UN-spon- Emmanuel Macron convened a Salame’s action plan has fallen remain and are likely to hamper sored national conference that summit in Paris with the GNA’s victim — predictably — to the any UN-led attempts unless those would bring together those two Fayez al-Sarraj and eastern strong- interventions of foreign actors. If international actors intervening political bodies as well as margin- man Khalifa Haftar. The two Salame could not achieve unity in Libya are brought to heel. In the alised groups to foster inclusivity pledged to work towards a political among international actors in 2017, absence of that condition, which If Salame could not ahead of the final stages of the agreement and elections; yet Haf- there is little hope he can now, seems unlikely, there is little rea- action plan. The conference would tar continued to accuse the GNA especially given recent turmoil in son for optimism. achieve unity among be tasked with amending and ap- of complicity with terrorist actors. Libya. international actors in proving a draft constitution to be One month later, then-UK Foreign Indeed, attempts by external Elissa Miller is a non-resident voted on in a referendum, followed Minister Boris Johnson met with actors to leverage their positions fellow at the Atlantic Council’s 2017, there is little by presidential and parliamentary Haftar in Libya. in Libya have exacerbated internal Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle hope he can now, elections. These summer 2017 meetings tensions as local armed groups East. This article was reprinted especially given The national conference, in with Haftar elevated his position seek to benefit from lucrative with permission from the Atlantic Salame’s words, would be a “syn- to that of a legitimate player in relationships with foreign powers. Council’s MENASource blog recent turmoil in thesis of the hopes of the Libyan Libya’s conflict and ensured that Appeasing militias while pushing (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ Libya. people” and avoid past mistakes he would have a say in Libya’s for rushed elections, rather than blogs/menasource). September 23, 2018 11 News & Analysis Migration and the Maghreb Merkel, Bouteflika talk on migration; Algeria pledges to speed up repatriation

Lamine Ghanmi fourth term expires next year. How- ever, the president’s backers have urged him to seek re-election and Tunis point to his meeting with Merkel as evidence that he is in command of lgeria pledged to speed up state affairs, analysts said. repatriations of its citizens Algerian political writer Hamid living illegally in Germany Saidani said Merkel’s meeting with A following a meeting be- Bouteflika “will be used very loose- tween German Chancellor Angela ly and largely by backers of the fifth Merkel and Algerian President Ab- mandate. That event will be used delaziz Bouteflika. to convince (the public)… that the The two leaders talked about mi- president enjoys his full capacities gration and developments in Libya, to continue his mission. as Bouteflika sought to display a “That explains the swiftness of strong image ahead of presidential the Algerian side to quickly ad- elections in April. dress the issue of illegal migrants Merkel, whose immigration poli- and please the German delegation cy made it possible for Germany to with the clear and precise decision welcome more than 1 million refu- to repatriate the Algerian illegal mi- gees in 2015, was the first foreign grants,” he said. leader to meet with Bouteflika after Algerian political analyst Arab Business, trade and migration. Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika (R) meets with visiting his return from a medical check-up Chih also said the meeting was German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Algiers, on September 17. (Algerian Presidential Palace) abroad. meant to deliver a message that Bouteflika was in good health. “The president’s advisers have focused on how to further business cooperation with the Algeria’s De- tempt to reach the Mediterranean The two leaders talked certainly programmed the visit six links in the region and stem illegal fence Ministry in the north-east and Europe. about migration and months ahead of the elections to migration to Europe. town of Ain Smara, producing Despite Algeria’s economic po- deliver a message that the president Merkel was accompanied to Al- Fuchs vehicles for troop transport tential, it remains heavily reliant on developments in Libya, as has the capacity to lead,” Chih said. giers by a dozen German business- as part of the military agreement. oil and gas exports and economists Bouteflika sought to display In February 2017, Merkel can- men looking to increase trade and German automobile maker Daim- see little sign of change, saying the a strong image ahead of celled a planned visit to Algeria at investment. Algeria is one of the ler has a joint venture with Algeria’s country is likely to use increased oil presidential elections in the request of Algiers after Boutef- three largest African economies, Societe Nationale des Vehicules In- revenue on imports rather than job- April. lika fell ill. which together account for 90% of dustriels to manufacture military creating initiatives. Ouyahia, who presided over the Germany’s investment in the conti- vehicles. Overall unemployment was 11.1% During the meeting September 18 latest talks with Merkel on migra- nent totalling $10 billion. Ouyahia said a dozen projects had in the first three months of this in Algiers, which was also attended tion and economic cooperation, Germany-Algeria bilateral trade been discussed to increase coop- year, official figures show, but 26% by Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed said: “Algeria wants to remove the stood at $3.9 billion last year, offi- eration between the two countries, among those under 30, who make Ouyahia and other high-level offi- migration issue from the path of cial figures showed. with Algeria looking to Germany up more than two-thirds of Alge- cials, Bouteflika was filmed appear- our ties with Germany.” Algeria-Germany military coop- for help in diversifying its economy ria’s population of 41 million. ing to struggle to address Merkel “Are we ready to receive 3,700 eration has increased steadily since through growing its manufacturing Germany has expanded business through a translator. nationals who are illegally in Ger- Merkel’s first visit to Algiers ten sector. ties with Algeria and the rest of Bouteflika, 81, has suffered a se- many? I confirm to you that Algeria years ago, with Algeria purchasing Germany has encouraged busi- Africa, resulting in a considerable ries of health problems and has will repatriate all its sons, whether more weapons from Germany than nesses to invest in Algeria and other expansion of trade. German trade rarely been seen in public since suf- they are 3,000 or 5,000,” he said any other country in Africa. Algeria African countries to foster econom- with Africa increased 35% in 2016 fering a stroke in 2013. He has yet in response to a German reporter’s bought $1.51 billion worth of arms ic alternatives for citizens at home compared to the previous year and to announce whether he will run question. from Germany last year as part of a and reduce migration to Europe. 12% in 2017, totalling $53.7 billion, for re-election next year. Merkel’s visit to Algeria followed 10-year, $11.7 billion weapons deal Algeria, by far the largest coun- official data indicate. Algeria’s opposition, citing his her tour in August of Nigeria, Ghana beginning in 2011. try in the region, borders Mali and apparent fragile health, wants and Senegal, three of West Africa’s German-based Rheinmetall De- Niger in the south, through which Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly Bouteflika to step down when his most vibrant economies. She then fence opened an assembly line in many migrants travel as they at- correspondent in Tunis. Morocco gets EU aid to help stem illegal migration

Saad Guerraoui It will back a new national strat- gal migration. solidate migrants’ rights to stay, into compliance with international egy for financial inclusion and Government spokesman Musta- health, education and employ- standards,” said Heba Morayef, Am- particularly the Innov Invest pro- pha el-Khalfi said Morocco im- ment,” he said, adding that Moroc- nesty International’s Middle East Casablanca gramme implemented by Moroc- plemented the 1992 agreement co is the only country in Africa that and North Africa director. co’s Caisse Centrale de Garantie. between Morocco and Spain stipu- has a migration strategy. The Moroccan Association for orocco has recently seen The “Support for Social Pro- lating the repatriation of the clan- Morocco has become a destina- Human Rights estimated that a surge in the number of tection Reform in Morocco” pro- destine migrants who made it to the tion for sub-Saharan Africans flee- 5,000 people have been caught in illegal migrants trying gramme seeks to help Morocco’s Spanish territory from Morocco. ing poverty and war but many also raids since July, put on buses and M to cross to Spain by land efforts in reducing inequalities and “Morocco is making exceptional use it as a platform to cross to Spain. abandoned in remote areas near and sea, prompting the European improving social cohesion and hu- efforts knowing that in 2017 it has More than 900 African migrants the Algerian border or in southern Union to boost its aid to Rabat to man development through the pro- thwarted some 65,000 cases of ille- forced their way into the Spanish Morocco. stem illegal migration. motion of equitable access to basic gal immigration. This responsibility enclave of Ceuta in the last two More than 38,000 arrivals to social services. must be collectively assumed with months after spending months hid- Spain have been recorded this year, Rabat has repeatedly asked the Europe,” Khalfi said. ing in forests in northern Morocco. making Spain the main entry point European Union for financial and “The government is working to Moroccan police have since chased More than into Europe in 2018 and outstrip- technical support to deal with ille- strengthen this strategy and con- thousands of African migrants and ping the numbers crossing from bused them to the other end of the North Africa to Italy, which closed country, prompting criticism from 38,000 its ports to most asylum seekers. human rights groups. arrivals to Spain have The European Union agreed to Youssouf, a 20-year-old from Ni- provide Rabat with $275 million in ger who lives in a makeshift camp been recorded this year, aid to help with basic services and opposite Casablanca’s bus station, making Spain the main support job creation to halt a flow said he was begging at the city’s of illegal migrants from Morocco, main traffic lights to save money to entry point into Europe Bloomberg News reported. pay smugglers. “I will try to fulfil in 2018. EU Neighbourhood Policy and En- my lifetime dream to cross to Spain largement Commissioner Johannes by boat. My family is counting on EU leaders are considering set- Hahn and Moroccan Finance Minis- me to help them have a better life ting up “disembarkation platforms” ter Mohamed Benchaaboun signed in Niger,” said Youssouf. in North African countries where agreements for the funding of Authorities insist that busing officials could screen refugees res- social development and the com- migrants from the northern border cued at sea to determine which are petitiveness of the private sector helps crack down on human traf- eligible for protection and which through two programmes: “Com- ficking but human rights groups would be deported to their coun- petitiveness and Green Growth” denounced the move, warning that tries of origin. and “Support for Social Protection forcible displacement of migrants Morocco rejected the idea of Reform in Morocco.” violated freedom of movement. “disembarkation platforms,” with The “Competitiveness and Green “This shocking crackdown on Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Growth” programme will support migrants and refugees in Morocco Bourita last June calling them the government’s effort to boost is both cruel and unlawful. It rep- “counterproductive mechanisms.” self-entrepreneurs, first-time ex- resents a worrying backslide for a porters and improve the business Dreaming of the north. Young Moroccans gather at the harbour of government that in 2013 introduced Saad Guerraoui is a contributor climate and the emergence of recy- the port city of Ceuta as they wait for the opportunity to board a new asylum and migration policy to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb cling channels. boat for Europe. (AFP) commitments to bring Morocco issues. 12 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis Lebanon

Viewpoint Why there is no ‘Maronite politics’ in Lebanon

Saeed is also coordinator of the March 14 coalition, which had refused the compromise that put Aoun in the presidency. “The idea Mohamad Kawas that Lebanon is a homeland for all minorities in the region is dead and he government crisis in so is the idea that Maronite Chris- Lebanon has highlighted tians are an exceptional community the signs of fracture in Lebanon. What we have now is inside what used to be the idea that Lebanon is collective known as “Maronite poli- living, which is the fundamental tics” in Lebanon. idea behind the Taif Agreement and TIn reality, the government crisis the constitution,” Saeed said. has at its base a Christian-Christian While some people close to Aoun disagreement, or more precisely a concluded that the Aounist move- Maronite-Maronite disagreement, ment and its Free Patriotic Move- about the nature of the Christian ment party are the real representa- quota in Lebanon’s government. At tives of Christian forces in Lebanon stake is the leadership of the Chris- and their independence, others tian community in Lebanon, given disagree and say the Aounists draw that the outcome of that competi- their strength from their alliance tion prepares for filling the position with Hezbollah. of Lebanese president in 2022. So when Aoun and his son- Divisions in the Christian bloc in in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Lebanon were unexpected. What Bassil, oppose proposals for a new Health concerns. Lebanese President Michel Aoun addresses the European Parliament in Strasbourg, was expected was that Maronite government put forth by Prime on September 11. (Reuters) politics would play a vital and neu- Minister-designate Saad Hariri, they tral role in Lebanon, given the other are taking advantage of Hezbollah’s fierce schism in the region — the one forceful dominance of political life between Sunnis and Shias. Observ- in Lebanon. Lebanese president’s health ers discovered that Maronites have Christian politician and former become players in the big Lebanese minister Sajaan Qazi said, contrary schism and their political fate has to what some might believe, “the fuels growing uncertainties, become intimately tied to the Sunni- large victories obtained by the Shia rivalry. Aounist movement during the last There have been proposals to rid three general elections in Lebanon Lebanon of the sectarian rivalry were made possible only by the last speculation about successor between the Sunnis and the Shias three agreements that the general by giving Christians a greater role (Aoun) had struck with Hezbollah in in Lebanese politics, similar in im- 2006 (St Michael’s Agreement), with Sami Moubayed staff handling run-of-the-mill af- (from) the general.” portance to the role of the Maronite the Lebanese Forces Party in 2015 fairs. Bassil, having just returned before the 1989 Taif Agreement. (the Declaration of Intentions), and Lebanese analyst Fadi Akoum from an official visit to the United Those voices did not wish to undo in 2016 with the Future Movement Beirut said that, regardless of the presi- States, responded with a state- the Taif Agreement, which ended (the Presidential Agreement).” dent’s health, early elections are ment denying that he was plan- 15 years of civil war but pointed out n a country gripped by politi- not an option for Lebanon. “They ning to replace his father-in-law. that Lebanese Maronite Christians cal and sectarian differences, would mean that the ruling clique He said these were “baseless ac- do not have an independent model Maronite politics with a chronic crisis in cabinet is actually admitting that [it] failed cusations” made by “intellectu- for Lebanon, which is different from manifests today in I formation, Lebanese President at ruling the country. Any opposi- ally bankrupt enemies of the Aoun models propagated by various ele- Michel Aoun is a familiar face that tion to early elections would actu- era.” Analysts argue otherwise. ments of Lebanese society. several ways hardly world leaders and the Lebanese ally be coming from the presiden- Those familiar with Aoun’s ca- Christian political leaders do not people trust and respect. He is tial palace itself,” Akoum said. reer path stress that he fought say Lebanese Maronites can come expressed anymore by someone who can pull the country Ghassan Hajjar, editor of the hard to become president and will up with an independent political the old concept of together and has done so previ- mass circulation daily Annahar, not give up power easily. In the agenda for Lebanon. They say the “Christian Lebanon.” ously. said: “All Maronite politicians late 1980s, Aoun assumed the post Christian camp has reached high By the time his term ends in have presidential dreams but it of prime minister, which would levels of discord such that its inter- Saeed said the old understand- 2022, however, Aoun will be 87. is too early to discuss early elec- normally go to a Sunni Muslim nal crises have become an obstacle ing of Maronite politics is part of Increasingly, he has been show- tions. Presidential hopefuls would rather than a Christian Maronite, to forming a government in Lebanon old history. He indicated that “the ing signs of fatigue, raising wor- simply be burning themselves at in violation of the 1943 gentle- and a hindrance to the political (Lebanese) Shias today are trying ries about his physical health and this stage and the president is in men’s agreement that governs system in the country. to appropriate for themselves the ability to complete his term, with no position to step down or call for Lebanese politics, known as the Former member of parliament idea of ‘exceptional sect.’ In other speculation about who might suc- early elections unless something National Accord. That, for a time, Fares Saeed rejected the idea of elab- words, they’re trying to put in place ceed him if he parts the scene or is out-of-hand happens.” resulted in two rival governments orating a purely Christian agenda for a ‘political Shia ideology’ that would somehow incapacitated. in Lebanon, one led by Aoun and Lebanon, which would be independ- replace the pre-war political Maron- In a region ruled by octoge- the other by Prime Minister Salim ent of the overall Lebanese context. ite ideology.” narian presidents, Aoun’s age Hoss. “There shouldn’t be a Christian Saeed said: “Back in time, the shouldn’t be a problem. The presi- Some media sources in Aoun waged a war of elimination project for Lebanon,” he said. “There Maronites had argued that Lebanon dent of Algeria is 81, while the king Beirut claim Aoun’s work against his Christian rival, Samir should only be a Lebanese project was a Maronite invention, so they of Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian day has been restricted to Geagea, who was subsequently for all the sects in Lebanon.” Saeed naturally had the right to govern it. president are 82. Tunisian Presi- 2-3 hours, with his staff arrested and jailed until the assas- quoted Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Today the Shias are saying: ‘We are dent Beji Caid Essebsi turns 92 in handling run-of-the-mill sination of Prime Minister Rafik Sfeir: “Lebanon does not belong to the ones who have protected Leba- November. affairs. Hariri in 2005. He had been aiming the Maronites; rather, it’s the Maron- non from Israel and terrorism’ and There is no post of vice-pres- at the presidency but backed out ites who belong to Lebanon.” he who protects the land governs ident in Lebanon. If a president in Aoun’s favour in 2016. Inside the Christian camp, there the land.” dies while in office, parliament Within Lebanon, many said that Aoun also waged a failed war of are two competing schools. The first Observers said the main ben- needs to convene immediately to Aoun’s 48-year old son-in-law Ge- liberation, hoping to free Lebanon says that Lebanese Christians must eficiary of this internal Christian find a replacement. Only one of bran Bassil, the current foreign from its Syrian occupiers, who ul- be an integral part of a regional coa- conflict is Hezbollah, as long as its Lebanon’s 17 presidents has died minister, has his eyes set on suc- timately defeated him and ejected lition grouping all other minorities bickering partners stay within the in office. That was during the civil ceeding Aoun as president, just him from power, sending him regardless of their religions, sects boundaries of the party’s will and war when Rene Mouawad was like he succeeded him at the helm into long years of exile in France, or ethnicities. This school finds its agenda. They point out that when shot at little more than two weeks of the Free Patriotic Movement where he remained until 2005. origins in the ideology that accom- the independent Christian forces after assuming office in November (FPM). Aoun, a skilled statesman, quick- panied the creation of the Lebanese come together with big Christian 1989. Although technically an ally of ly mended relations with Damas- entity. That ideology states that parties, such as the Forces or the Aoun has been in power for less Hezbollah, Bassil has been reach- cus, after teaming with Hezbollah Lebanon is the home country of mi- Phalanges, to vex Aoun and Bassel, than two years, after a 2-year va- ing out to new allies, both at home leader Hassan Nasrallah, realising norities. Lebanese President Michel that doesn’t necessarily mean that cancy at the presidential seat in and abroad, marketing himself as that due to the Shia community’s Aoun has been accused of belonging foundations are being laid for a new Baabda Palace. His election was president-in-waiting. numerical and military superior- to this school, which would explain “Maronite politics,” even if their celebrated as a national achieve- Aoun has three daughters. None, ity, he needed their support if he his preference to ally himself with movement represents new efforts ment, reached by consensus be- given Lebanon’s patriarchal tra- were to become president. Hezbollah, Damascus and Tehran to position themselves within the tween his Hezbollah allies and the ditions, are likely to succeed him He promised to protect Hezbol- rather than with Lebanon’s Arab spirit of the March 14 coalition. Gulf-backed Prime Minister Saad as president. The first, Mireille, is lah’s right to hold arms and they environment. Some Lebanese politicians have Hariri. married to Roy Hachem, the CEO promised to place him in power, The second school finds its roots concluded that a purely Christian Talk of the president’s health of Aoun’s OTV. The second, Clau- which they did in 2016 at the ex- in the Christians’ experience in the Maronite political camp is missing remains a hushed topic in Bei- dine, is married to Brigadier-Gen- pense of Suleiman Frangieh, an- civil war and their acceptance of the in the Lebanese scene where already rut, something that few discuss eral Chamel Roukoz, a decorated other long-time ally. Frangieh will Taif Agreement, which clearly states two camps, the Shia political camp, openly. On Army Day celebra- officer who was voted into parlia- likely nominate himself in 2022 or that Lebanon is an Arab country. headed by Hezbollah and Amal tions in August, Aoun stuttered ment on an FPM ticket last May. earlier, if Aoun steps down. This Christian school says it believes Movement, and the Sunni political as he spoke, mistakenly saying The third, Chantal, is married to A third possible nominee is Amin in ending the idea of a “Maronite ex- camp, headed by the Future Move- “qurood” (“monkeys”) instead of Bassil, whom she met at an FPM Gemayel, a former president who ception” in Lebanon and in working ment, are battling it out. However, “jurood” (“barren ridges”). He re- conference in Paris in 1996. appointed Aoun prime minister in towards a full partnership with the Maronite politics manifests today portedly suffered a stroke in 2013, Earlier this summer, in what 1988 and has been working on a Lebanese Muslims since the agree- in several ways hardly expressed then fell — on camera — at an Arab seemed to be a message directed comeback for the past four years. ment states that Lebanon is the de- anymore by the old concept of summit in Jordan last year. squarely at her brother-in-law, finitive homeland for all Lebanese. “Christian Lebanon.” Some media sources in Beirut Mireille Hachem spoke to the Leb- Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Given this background, all Lebanese claim Aoun’s work day has been anese newspaper Al Joumhouria, historian and author of “Under Christians must accept that Lebanon Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese restricted to 2-3 hours, with his saying: “Nobody is going to inherit the Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). is part of the Arab region. writer. September 23, 2018 13 News & Analysis Palestine Israel US-Palestinian relations slide deeper into crisis mode

Manuel Langendorf as the capital of Israel. By subsequently moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusa- London lem, Trump fulfilled a long-held Israeli demand, which Palestin- alestinian rights are not ians say undermines their claim to up for sale or negotia- East Jerusalem as the capital of a tion. We will not be sub- future Palestinian state. In protest, “Pject to blackmail and PA President Mahmoud Abbas sus- threats by the American administra- pended interactions with the US tion,” said Husam Zomlot, the Pal- government. estinian envoy to the United States. The Trump administration in Au- Zomlot’s statement came after the gust said it would not provide ad- Trump administration announced it ditional contributions to the UN Re- decided to close the Palestine Liber- lief and Works Agency for Palestine ation Organisation (PLO) mission in Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Washington. The decision plunged The United States had been the sin- US-Palestinian relations deeper into gle-largest donor to the agency. crisis mode. Earlier the administration said US State Department spokeswom- it would redirect $200 million in an Heather Nauert said, in a state- funds allocated for economic pro- ment, that the PLO, the internation- grammes in the occupied West Bank ally recognised representative of the and the Gaza Strip. On September Palestinian people, “has not taken 8, a State Department official said steps to advance the start of direct Trump ordered $25 million in aid for and meaningful negotiations with six hospitals in East Jerusalem to be Israel.” redirected to “high-priority projects She added that the Palestinian elsewhere.” leadership “condemned a US peace Such decisions harden attitudes plan they have not yet seen and re- of Palestinian moderates and “alien- fused to engage with the US govern- ate average Palestinians and mod- Brewing storm. Palestinian protesters fly national flags and chant anti-Israel slogans in the West ment with respect to peace efforts erate Arab governments,” said Gary Bank village of Khan al-Ahmar, on September 16. (AP) and otherwise.” Grappo, a former US ambassador PLO Secretary-General Saeb and head of mission of the Middle Erekat called the move a “dangerous East Quartet in Jerusalem. “All this fined borders.” about reconciliation between the very existence, which is viewed by escalation” showing that Washing- will make a resolution of the Israeli- Federica Mogherini, the European Palestinian Authority, which is most in government as a fundamen- ton “is willing to disband the inter- Palestinian conflict more difficult.” Union’s top diplomat, has called dominated by Fatah, and Hamas tal Israeli interest.” national system to protect Israeli The Trump administration has such a situation “a one-state reality have failed. Abbas has been under Israeli journalist Gideon Levy crimes.” The State Department also been working on a Middle East of unequal rights [for Palestinians], pressure to alleviate the humanitar- said while most Israelis were happy cited Palestinian attempts to pros- peace plan since entering office perpetual occupation and conflict.” ian situation in the Gaza Strip, the about “each Palestinian catastro- ecute Israel in the International but few details have been revealed. It would mean the end of the two- coastal enclave ruled by Hamas. phe… only the army is concerned Criminal Court as a reason for the “Even if the Trump administration state solution. A renewed international focus on because they understand the pos- closure. has yet to formally unveil its peace Against this backdrop, “the fight Gaza has been a source of concern sible outcome: another wave of vio- “Washington’s attempt to strong- plan, it is already moving to reshape against the Trump peace plan seems for the Palestinian Authority. “The lence.” arm the PLO into concessions over the traditional peace-making pro- to have become a new rallying cry Palestinian leadership is worried Grappo said he did not foresee core components of Palestinian cess and realities on the ground,” for President Abbas and a new po- that the US is using the Gaza issue major changes to US and Israeli identity could endanger the Pales- said Hugh Lovatt, policy fellow at litical raison d’etre,” said Lovatt. He and Israeli-Hamas ceasefire talks policy. “The current dynamic is de- tinian Authority’s (PA) very exist- the European Council on Foreign cautioned, however, that “Abbas has to sideline and undermine the PA,” cidedly in favour of Israel,” he said. ence,” said Ofer Zalzberg, senior Relations. yet to invest himself in a viable al- said Lovatt. “Therefore, the US and Israel are analyst for Israel-Palestine at Crisis There were strong indications, he ternative strategy.” This could also pose a risk to Is- unlikely to change course for the Group. added, that the United States was With consistent rumours about rael, said Zalzberg, who argued that foreseeable future.” Palestinians, he Tensions between the United moving from “its traditional support Abbas’s health, there has been spec- Israel’s right-wing government is so concluded, “have reached the low- States and the Palestinian leader- for the creation of a fully independ- ulation about who could succeed opposed to the Oslo process, which water mark in their efforts to estab- ship have been running high for ent and contiguous Palestinian state him. There is fear that a succession 25 years ago ushered in an era of lish a state.” months. A key turning point was US on the pre-June 1967 lines in favour struggle could lead to violence in limited Palestinian self-governance, President Donald Trump’s decision of an autonomous Palestinian ‘state’ the Palestinian territories. “that it may fail to limit the dangers Manuel Langendorf is a writer in December to recognise Jerusalem with limited sovereignty and unde- What is more, efforts to bring that US overreach poses to the PA’s focusing on the MENA region.

Viewpoint The Palestinians’ Washington comeback is not going to be easy

hatever final de- Syria and Iraq. The United States is leadership. Why Arafat made that minister, kept Arafat besieged cision the Trump also moving on to close the issue of mistake we will never know. in Ramallah until his death in Khairallah administration the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The fact remains that, since November 2004. Arafat’s death left Khairallah may take regard- Trump’s recognising Jerusalem 2001, the Palestinians paid the such a huge void that the Palestin- ing the Palestine as the capital of Israel and moving price of every major event in the ians have not a clue how to fill Liberation Organ- the US Embassy in Israel there region. That year involved the it. No one among the Palestinian Wisation (PLO) office in Washington, closed the Jerusalem issue. By all militarisation of the Palestinian in- leadership had thought of open- Palestinian-American relations international agreements, East tifada and al-Qaeda’s terror strike ing a diplomatic representation have not made any real progress Jerusalem was to be the capital at the United States. Since then, in Washington. A prize would be since the failure of the Camp David of the independent Palestinian the Palestinians have lost every offered to whoever could come up summit in 2000 among former US state. Trump’s decision kills the diplomatic, political or military with the name of a person to head President Bill Clinton, Palestinian two-state option that previous battle they were involved in. that representation. leader Yasser Arafat and former US administrations had held as With Donald Trump in the White No matter how hard he tries, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. a reasonable solution and useful House, US bias towards Israel has Trump won’t be able to bury the Now they face uncertain pros- step towards a final solution for the become total. This is a fact that Palestinian cause but it may take pects. Palestinians. Even George W. Bush everybody needs to accept. For a long time for the cause to regain In late 2001, George W. Bush was spoke of a “viable” Palestinian Trump, the Palestinians mean its due attention. There is a need absorbed by his War on Terror and state. nothing and reaching a fair and for new faces who understand the his subsequent invasion of Iraq. The next step in the diabolical acceptable settlement represents threats and opportunities in the The US administration practically plan to kill the Palestinian cause no advantage to him. He has his regional context and who would be ignored the Palestinian question was to cut US funding to UNRWA, own agenda and it is quite differ- able to deal with an American ad- and American-Palestinian rela- the UN body created to help Pal- ent from those of his predecessors. ministration that is not interested tions have regressed ever since. estinian refugees. By abandoning Many Palestinians doubted Amer- in dealing with them. The road to The closing of the PLO office in the refugees, the United States is ica’s ability to play the role of a fair Washington had been very long. Washington is a natural conclusion telling the countries hosting them middleman and they were right. How long it will take for the Pales- of this trend, which will lead to to absorb them. This means that The Palestinians had fought hard tinians to go back there? a total divorce between the two the long-standing Palestinian to get to Washington. Their major Regaining access to decision- parties. right of return is no longer valid, gain from the 1993 Oslo Accords making circles in Washington Is it fair to accuse the Trump an ironic fate for a principle that was access to the White House. In won’t be easy for the Palestinians. administration of abandoning the the Palestinian refugees and their 2000, Arafat was a frequent guest A new generation of Palestinian Palestinian cause, which remains host countries were forced to ac- at the White House, more than any leaders needs to grasp the signifi- the cause of an entire people? The cept as part of the reality they had other president. cance of the climb of the extrem- Palestinians have always been on to contend with since 1948. The To be fair to the Palestinians, ist right in Israel since 2000, in the political map of the Middle Palestinian right of return was overwhelming developments in addition to understanding the East. Their problem is finding a abused by everyone who survived the Middle East harmed their consequences of the changes on place on the geographical map of by selling fantasies and who had interests and their cause. They, the international scene and in the the Middle East. other goals to pursue and scores to too, however, harmed themselves. United States in particular. A new generation of The Trump administration can- settle, definitely not in pursuit of a To speak of a regression of the Pal- There is a need for flexible and Palestinian leaders not simply turn its back on the Pal- peaceful solution. estinian cause, especially after the creative minds that can go beyond needs to grasp the estinian question. This adminis- In 2000, Arafat had made a seri- invasion of Iraq in 2003, is an un- the old cliches used by Palestinian tration has been undermining the ous mistake by refusing to accept derstatement. When Iraq became leaders to respond to Trump’s deci- significance of the foundations that had been keeping Clinton’s settlement framework. a playing field for the evil games of sions. This is a new world and it climb of the extremist the cause alive for nearly 70 years. Clinton ended up not trusting the Iran-backed sectarian militias, requires a different language. It closed the Jerusalem issue and is Arafat and recommended to his the Palestinian cause took a direct right in Israel since ending the issue of the Palestinian successor at the White House hit and began to sink. Khairallah Khairallah is a 2000. refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon, not to deal with the Palestinian Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime Lebanese writer. 14 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis Turkey Erdogan under pressure after ‘gift’ of $500 million ‘flying palace’ from Qatar

Thomas Seibert it is helping terrorist groups. Erdogan sent troops to a Turkish military base in the emirate last Istanbul year to prevent an expected mili- tary intervention by Saudi Arabia urkish President Recep and other Gulf countries. The cri- Tayyip Erdogan is com- sis has been lingering ever since. ing under pressure from a Daniels said Turkish-Qatari co- T key political ally in Ankara operation had economic advantag- after he accepted a $500 million es for both sides. “Turkey, along luxury plane as a “gift” from Qatar with Iran, essentially has come in the middle of Turkey’s worsen- to dominate Qatar’s import mar- ing financial crisis. ket, usurping Saudi dominance The arrival of the custom-fitted there,” he wrote. “Qatar does have Boeing 747-8 boasting conference a vested interest in Turkey’s finan- halls, bedrooms and a medical cial success, given its high level of facility, dubbed a “flying palace” foreign direct investment there, by Turkey’s opposition, came though this isn’t unique among only weeks after the Qatari Emir the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Coun- Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani cil) states.” pledged to invest $15 billion into Even before the recent promise Turkey’s economy. of $15 billion for Turkey’s econo- my, Qatar had invested around $20 billion in Turkey, Doha said. Some Critics accuse Erdogan of observers say that figure is exag- centralising political power gerated because several promised and of wasting taxpayer projects have not come through. money on extravagance. More than 300 Turkish compa- nies are active in Qatar, managing With the Turkish lira losing projects with a combined value of about 40% of its value against the more than $11 billion. US dollar since the start of the year Qatar’s promise of economic and a deep crisis between Ankara help for Turkey was seen as a ges- and Washington, Turkey has been ture by the emirate to thank Anka- looking for help from partners in ra for the political support in the Royal trappings. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin the Gulf region and Europe. Er- GCC crisis but a key Erdogan ally Hamad al-Thani in Ankara, on August 15. (Reuters) dogan is to visit Berlin this month. in Ankara and the opposition said “By sending the plane to Erdog- it is wrong for Erdogan to accept an himself on the heels of its $15 the jet from Doha. opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaro- said was worth about $500 million believe the luxury jumbo was just billion aid pledge, Doha is bolster- “The Turkish Republic does not glu said, addressing Erdogan. “If but Sheikh Tamim said he would a gift. “If you give something it ing a relationship with a critical accept presents or donations,” said someone gave you a second hand present the jet to Turkey as a gift. means you expect something in partner,” Owen Daniels, associate Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far- plane as a gift, it’s an even bigger Erdogan added: “He said: ‘I won’t return,” opposition politician Onur director of the Middle East Peace right Nationalist Movement Party shame.” take money from Turkey. I give Oymen, a former Turkish ambas- and Security Initiative at the At- (MHP) that forms an alliance with Critics accuse Erdogan, who this as a present to Turkey.’” There sador, told the Cumhuriyet news- lantic Council in Washington, said Erdogan’s Justice and Develop- lives in a palace with 1,000 rooms was no comment from the govern- paper. “This should be discussed via e-mail. ment Party in parliament. “If the in Ankara, of centralising politi- ment in Doha. and cleared up in parliament.” Turkey and Qatar, the world’s Turkish presidency and the state cal power and of wasting taxpayer Erdogan shrugged off criticism The opposition newspaper biggest supplier of liquefied natu- government need a plane for in- money on extravagance. His fleet by saying the plane belonged to Sozcu speculated that Erdogan ral gas, have been allies for years. ternational trips, they can buy it. of government planes includes the state. Erdogan said the aero- would give government shares of Together with Iran, Turkey sent If there is no need for it, one does an Airbus A340 that belonged to plane was being repainted and, Turkish Airlines to Qatari busi- supplies to Qatar last year after not have to get one.” He added former Tunisian President Zine once it was finished, “we will trav- nessmen in return for the plane. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab that Erdogan “should not have ac- el-Abidine Ben Ali. Erdogan says el with it but you will be getting Erdogan recently appointed him- Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut cepted” the plane. money is not an issue when it on the plane of the Republic of self head of Turkey’s sovereign ties with Doha and closed the land The opposition Republican Peo- comes to the prestige of the coun- Turkey, not my plane.” He said he wealth fund, which includes the border, accusing Qatar of support- ple’s Party called on the MHP to try. started legal proceedings against government stake in the airline. ing extremists. Both Turkey and support a bill calling for the return Erdogan, speaking during a mid- opposition officials and parties Turkish media reports stated that Qatar have angered the Saudi-led of the plane when the assembly September trip to Azerbaijan, said that criticised him for accepting Qatari companies are keen to quartet by backing the Muslim returns from recess in October. “If that the government had looked the plane. buy real estate and factories in Brotherhood but Doha denies that you bought it, it’s a great shame,” into buying the plane, which he Some critics said they do not Turkey. Viewpoint Sochi agreement has Turkey gain time and lose ground

owever it is looked plished and what happens if not? tinguish between radical jihadists United States’ interests. at the agreement Undoubtedly, by signing on to and moderate opposition activists. If Turkey fails to secure the jihad- between Russian the Sochi agreement, Turkey has The factions that are not persuaded ist groups’ compliance, Russia will Yavuz Baydar President Vladimir chosen tactics above strategy. Stuck to disarm will be antagonised and have reason to intervene, as well Putin and Turkish in a foreign policy impasse, Turkey may turn against Turkey. Finally, as the Syrian government. A likely President Recep has been retreating from regime- asked Yakis, “to what extent can scenario is that Turkey will have to HTayyip Erdogan is a turning point changer role on Syria. But Ankara one rely on the word of a terror- ask for a postponement once more. in Turkey’s Syria policy. may have only postponed the Idlib ist who says he has decided to lay Some observers argue that the The agreement, completed issue, perhaps until its next tactical down arms?” best approach for Turkey would September 17 by Putin and Er- move. The Turkish public is poorly be to share all its intelligence with dogan when they met in Sochi, More important, the Erdogan informed about how arduous the Russia and Syria and allow them Russia, shattered the illusion that administration may have bitten off task is that has been set by the to deal with the jihadists while it Turkey has a stakeholder role in more than it can chew. A careful Sochi agreement for the country. focuses on minimising the humani- the region’s future. The 10-point ar- reading of the Sochi agreement Approximately 60% of Idlib is tarian tragedy with international rangement made a splash because shows that, while Putin invested under the control of Hayat Tahrir cooperation. If the Idlib operation it contained concrete objectives in a long-term plan to maintain al-Sham, which Turkey recently is inevitable, Ankara will face the and set the clock ticking for Idlib by — and even enhance — control designated a terrorist group. There same dilemmas now or later. offering a clear timetable. over Syria’s future, his Turkish are areas controlled by smaller In case of failure, however, Tur- That plan allows Turkey to counterpart assumed almost all jihadist factions. key will be solely responsible. This “strengthen” its 12 observation the responsibility for removing If disarmament is achieved, will be particularly true if jihadist posts, establish a 15-20km-wide de- armed jihadists from the area. It is which is a huge challenge, the attacks against Syrian and Russian militarised zone along the Turkish- a binding contract for Ankara with compliant jihadist groups will have forces continue. Syrian border and have all warring a clear deadline and it only adds to little reason to stay in the area be- In fact, the Sochi agreement indi- sides withdrawing from the area by the economic and political stresses cause they will fear retaliation from rectly shuffles the responsibility for October 10. Controls will be jointly faced by Turkey. others. They will have to turn to Russian military posts onto Turkey. enforced by Turkish and Russian “By agreeing to hold back the their de facto allies inside Turkey, The M4 and M5 commitments sig- forces and security for two arterial military operation against the ji- which were emboldened by the nal Turkey’s nod to what Damascus highways — the M4, which con- hadists, Russia does not lose much regime-change policy on Syria. The expects in securing transport arter- The Turkish public is nects Aleppo and Latakia, and the because the attack is not cancelled ideological kinship remains strong ies from Aleppo to the south and poorly informed M5, which links Aleppo and Hama indefinitely, only postponed until enough to threaten Turkey’s inter- west of Syria. about how arduous — is to be complete by year-end. if and when it becomes necessary,” nal security, already fragile because The Sochi agreement adds to An- One question looms larger than Yasar Yakis, a former foreign minis- of social polarisation. kara’s strain and reveals the despair the task is that has all others, however: Will Turkey ter of Turkey, told Ahval Online. He If Turkey secretly intends to use that permeates its regional policy. been set by the Sochi be able to disarm jihadist groups — added: “Turkey is being asked to do disarmed jihadist groups against some 30,000 fighters, all armed to the dirty work in Idlib.” Kurdish-controlled areas, that, too, Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish agreement for the the teeth — by the deadline? What Yakis argued that Turkey faces is doomed to backfire. It would run journalist and regular columnist country. would happen if this is accom- several risks. It is not easy to dis- counter to both Russia’s and the for The Arab Weekly. September 23, 2018 15 Debate Iran Woodward tells story of Trump’s policymaking and sources of influence on Iran

Ali Alfoneh impose sanctions on Iran… Is one of your f…ing great allies up in the European Union going to back the president?” Bannon said at a meeting at the Pentagon, Wood- ward wrote in “Fear.” Trump liked Bannon’s argument merican investiga- but the chief strategist’s victory tive journalist Bob did not last long and soon he was Woodward’s book exiled from the White House. “Fear: Trump in the James Mattis, a retired four-star White House” made US Marines Corps general, whom it to the top of the Obama sacked as central com- NewA York Times bestsellers list by mander in the Middle East, fared selling more than 1 million copies marginally better in the admin- within a week. istration. Trump, obsessed with Having read the book, one adding generals to the cabinet, wonders why. After all, the famed appointed Mattis defence sec- Watergate reporter does not add retary. The Iran hardliner soon much to what was already known found himself a moderating factor about the mercurial president and in the administration and sought his incoherent and erratic policies. international consensus rather A Middle Eastern audience, how- than American unilateralism. The ever, may find Woodward’s tale of “globalist” tendency loathed by US President Donald Trump’s Iran the president has isolated the de- policy amusing and disconcerting. fence secretary in the cabinet. Trump entered the White House Woodward’s book does not not only as an anti-establishment provide any insights into the goal figure but also as the antithesis An account of office intrigues. Copies of “Fear: Trump in the White House” by Bob Trump is pursuing with his Iran of his immediate predecessors, Woodward on display at Book Passage in Corte Madera in California. (AFP) policy but what’s clear is Trump Barack Obama and George W. usually agrees with the last person Bush. Where Obama and Bush with whom he has spoken. were considered “globalists” and it benefitted since 1945. Trump railed against the Obama With Mattis out of the loop, “interventionists” who dragged However, as Woodward’s discus- administration over the JCPOA, Tillerson replaced at the State De- the United States into lengthy and sion of the Trump administration’s which he called the “worst deal partment by Iran hardliner Mike costly wars in Afghanistan, Iraq Iran policy demonstrates, undoing ever made.” Once in the White Pompeo and John Bolton, who has and Libya to defend the post- Obama’s legacy was sometimes House, Trump’s obsession with always advocated for overthrow- second world war American order, more important to Trump than to undoing the JCPOA intensified. ing the regime in Tehran, ap- Trump’s philosophy was funda- uphold his isolationism. Woodward said then-Secretary pointed national security adviser, mentally isolationist. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of State Rex Tillerson repeatedly Trump may end up receiving the He called it “America First” of Action (JCPOA), also known emphasised that Tehran was “not same counsel on Iran no matter but it was really “America Alone” as the Iran nuclear deal, could in violation” of the agreement. whom he talks to at the White because Trump did not mind dis- have served as a tool for Trump. Tillerson was backed up in this by House. entangling the United States from He could have used the deal to US intelligence services but there This should be a source of con- policing a world order from which abandon America’s allies in the was little he could do about the cern to the regime in Tehran. The Middle East, leaving them to their matter when debating the issue rest of us should be concerned own devices. After all, there was a with Stephen Bannon, Trump’s about Washington’s lack of prepar- Woodward does not add much to deal, and so long as Iran complied chief strategist. edness for who and what is likely what was already known about with its obligations, Washington Bannon used the Iran issue to to replace the regime in Tehran could disentangle itself from the discredit Washington’s European if Washington manages to over- the mercurial president and his Middle East. allies and NATO. “One of the throw the Islamic Republic, either incoherent and erratic policies. However, even as a candidate, things he [Trump] wants to do is by design or by accident. As former Iranian vice-president goes to jail, the ‘Ahmadinejadis’ are down but not out

ary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Kurd- Hossein Taeb. Hamid Baghaei, an develop some sort of organised istan in the 1980-88 Iraq war and Ahmadinejad ally who was earlier Mashaei support,” she said. Ahmadinejad was a volunteer en- this year sentenced to 15 years in became the True, the official distaste for Gareth Smyth gineer in the Basij paramilitaries. prison for embezzlement, claimed bete noire of effective political parties as Once Ahmadinejad won the at his trial that he had been framed conservative breeding grounds for “factional- presidency in 2005, many wrong- by IRGC officials. After Mashaei’s clerics, who ism” precludes an Ahmadine- footed analysts portrayed him as sentence, Ahmadinejad released a openly warned jad version of the reformists’ a creature of the IRGC but discrete video claiming Taeb was “psycho- he led a Mosharekat-e Iran-e Islami logically unbalanced” and “fabri- (“Participation Front”). The front talk in Tehran was of his religious “deviant beliefs, particularly of his rela- cates cases.” is barely functioning since its 2010 he video released by tionship with the 12th Imam, or Opinions differ as to how much current.” suspension but populism based on state media of Esfan- Mahdi. Mashaei and Ahmadinejad are a social media, as the recent history diar Rahim Mashaei Ahmadinejad had an affinity, serious problem for Iran’s estab- of the United States illustrates, is defying an Iranian rooted in his blacksmith father’s lishment. “Mashaei wasn’t par- unpredictable. court by tearing off his Quran classes, with the simple ticularly threatening,” said Farideh Ahmadinejad is fondly remem- shirt was pure theatre religious practices of millions Farhi, adjunct professor of political bered by many Iranians and the Tbut leaves Iranians wondering if of Iranians and a distrust of science at the University of Hawaii. cash handouts introduced by they have seen the final act in a the learned ayatollahs in Qom. “This is why he wasn’t arrested for his government have proved too long drama. Mashaei developed a stress on years. He just needed to be stopped popular for Iranian President The former vice-president Iranian nationalism even at the for a while since his latest utter- Hassan Rohani and parliament was sentenced to six-and-a-half expense of Islam. ances might have given others the simply to remove. years in prison for actions against While Iranian Supreme Leader impression that everyone could in- Sadegh Larijani could have national security, propaganda Ayatollah Ali Khamenei backed sult the authorities with impunity.” another reason to counter against the government and in- Ahmadinejad in the disputed 2009 Farhi argues that a judicial move Ahmadinejad. The judiciary chief sulting the judiciary. He report- presidential election, he refused against Ahmadinejad is unlikely, is considered one of three main edly faces other charges, too. to accept Mashaei as first vice- given the existing “propaganda candidates in the looming suc- A long prison spell could be the president. Ahmadinejad instead cost” of the media ban against cession to Khamenei, 79. In an political end for a man who was made Mashaei chief of staff and another former president, reform- interview last year with Radio once first vice-president and then prompted a week-long stand-off ist Mohammad Khatami. “Knowing Farda, Ahmadinejad suggested former President Mahmoud Ah- while resisting a directive from this, Ahmadinejad will continue the judiciary lacked “systematic madinejad’s chief of staff (2009- Khamenei designating the next to push the limits and will not face supervision” with power con- 13). Mashaei became the bete intelligence minister. retribution so long as he cannot centrated in its chief, whom he noire of conservative clerics, who In the 2013 presidential elec- accused of complicity in the death openly warned he led a “deviant tion, Ahmadinejad was consti- of a blogger. It was an apparent current.” tutionally barred from seeking a reference to Sattar Beheshti, 35, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mes- third consecutive term and the who died in Evin prison in 2012. bah-Yazdi, a member of the As- watchdog Guardian Council disal- Farhi said Larijani has “not been sembly of Experts, once declared lowed Mashaei. Ahead of the 2017 a particularly effective public himself “more than 90% certain election, for which Ahmadinejad defender” of the judiciary “or the he [Ahmadinejad] has been put was eligible, Khamenei publicly Islamic Republic in general” and under a spell… I do not know if it advised a “certain person” not to that his wider record may already is hypnotism… or relations with do a “certain thing” (stand). have alienated the Experts As- yogis but something is wrong.” Down but far from out, the sembly, the body that chooses the Mashaei is related to Ahmadine- “Ahmadinejadis,” as they are leader. But Ahmadinejad’s goad- jad through their children’s mar- known, have remained active with ing seems set to continue despite riage. The pair appear to have met hundreds of websites and social- Mashaei’s political demise. Given when Mashaei was an intelligence media accounts pedalling a mix their bitter animosity and his own officer in the Islamic Revolution- of millennialism and conspiracy ambitions, Larijani may seize any theories. Their allegations of cor- chance to shut up Ahmadinejad ruption in high places often centre as well. Opinions differ as to how much on the Larijani brothers, Ali, the Mashaei and Ahmadinejad are a parliamentary speaker and Sad- Down but far from out. A 2013 file picture shows Gareth Smyth is a regular egh, the judiciary chief. former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (L) contributor to The Arab Weekly. serious problem for Iran’s Another target is the IRGC and his close ally Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei in Tehran. He has reported from the Middle establishment. intelligence arm, headed by (AP) East since 1992. 16 September 23, 2018 News & Analysis East West Algeria welcomes Macron’s admission of France’s role in pro-Algerian activist’s death

Lamine Ghanmi

Tunis

lgeria warmly welcomed French President Emma- nuel Macron’s recognition A that France instigated a “system” that led to torture during Algeria’s war of independence, an admission long sought by Algiers. Macron also formally recognised the French military’s culpability in the likely torture and death of Algerian communist activist Mau- rice Audin, who disappeared after French soldiers arrested him in 1957. Macron met with Audin’s 87-year- old widow near Paris and asked for her “pardon” on behalf of France, a historic gesture aimed at repairing Airing the longstanding issues between Alge- truth. French ria and France. Macron also said he President would reopen national archives on Emmanuel the war as part of France’s quest to Macron lea- ensure everyone “knows the truth.” ves the home “The president of the republic of Josette has decided that it was time for the Audin, widow nation to perform the task of accu- of Maurice racy and truth on this matter,” read Audin, in a statement by the French presiden- Bagnolet, on cy following the meeting. “It rec- September 13. ognises in the name of the French (AFP) Republic that Maurice Audin had been tortured and executed or tor- and tending to wounded fighters. Algeria has pushed back against a right-wing figures in France after he Macron’s outreach to Audin’s tured to death by soldiers who had In Algeria, Audin’s 50-year disap- French military presence in the Sa- described his country’s colonial his- widow, a French national, won arrested him at his home.” pearance has come to symbolise the hel, and the government has con- tory as “a crime against humanity” praise in Algeria from government “If the death of Maurice Audin is brutal nature of French tactics dur- ditioned “full normalisation” with during a visit to Algiers. officials and war survivors. the ultimate act of some people, it ing the independence war. France on its returning war archives “Since this morning I’m very has nevertheless been made possi- Macron’s efforts to come to grips and compensating victims of its nu- moved,” said Louisette Ighilahriz, ble by a system legally established, with that legacy were hailed by clear bomb tests in the Algerian de- In Algeria, Audin’s a veteran Algerian independence the system of arrest-detention.” Algerian officials and nationalist sert of Reggane. 50-year disappearance fighter whose account of being tor- It is under that system that the survivors as a “huge step” towards Previous French leaders have has come to symbolise tured and raped in French military French government granted the reconciliation, which is key to made statements expressing regret the brutal nature of prison was told in French media in military special powers to under- maintaining the two countries’ cul- over France’s role in the war but French tactics during 2000. “I find it difficult to hold back mine the Algerian nationalist move- tural, economic and military links. none went as far as Macron. the independence war. my tears. I have been waiting for ment, of which Audin was a part, in However, the admissions were In 2013, then-President Francois this news,” Ighilahriz said. the summer of 1957. criticised by Macron’s political op- Hollande called France’s colonial Algerian Minister of Mujahidines Audin, a mathematician at Algiers ponents in France who say they system “deeply unfair and brutal,” Still, Algerian President Abdelaziz (veteran fighters) Tayeb Zitouni said University, was a member of the betray his lack of patriotism, under- after which Algeria allowed France Bouteflika called on France to seek Macron’s recognition of the French Algerian Communist Party whose lying the competing narratives over to fly fighter jets over its territory a “pardon from the Algerian na- state’s role in Audin’s presumed leaders and activists played a key the two countries’ shared history. for the first time to strike jihadist tion.” “Our people always demand death was a “huge step forward.” role in Algerian nationalism. His Algeria has made clear that it will positions in Mali. the recognition by France of the “French crimes in Algeria are home served as a safe house dur- consider France a “hostile power” In February 2017, Macron, then a sufferings endured during coloni- denied only by those forgetful and ing the war, sheltering nationalists until the country expresses “re- presidential candidate, was round- sation,” Bouteflika said earlier this ignorant of history,” he added in a hunted by the French authorities pentance” for colonial-era abuses. ly condemned by conservative and month. statement. Viewpoint Being honest with history can help France and others build a better future

y publicly acknowl- tice, when virtually every Middle Henri.” Audin reportedly died in warning for others, unlike Pierre edging the role of the Eastern and North African state June 1957 after being tortured at Mendes-France and Alain Savary, French state in the practises torture despite signing the hands of Lieutenant Andre who played key roles in helping Francis Ghilès use of torture dur- international agreements that ban Charbonnier, who was nicknamed Tunisia towards a relatively non- ing the Algerian war its use and despite the knowledge “the doctor” because he liked to violent path to independence and of independence that torture seldom yields serious use a scalpel on his victims. resigned from government. B(1954-62) and vowing to declas- information. Macron’s gesture Committees were quickly set up The colossal failure of good faith sify information to help clear up has naturally been welcomed in in France but nothing came of it after the second world war and the disappearances, French President Algeria. for years. Vidal-Naquet, who wrote stupidity of an industrial class bent Emmanuel Macron ended six Would it be too much to hope “L’Affaire Audin” in May 1958, on sustaining France as an impe- decades of controversy during that Maghreb countries come clean spent decades fighting for the truth rial power are evident. Charles de which the Audin family and histo- regarding their own record in the to be told. Gaulle was convinced that colonies rians, starting with Pierre Vidal- use of torture since independence? A few months before Audin was were key to France re-establishing Naquet, challenged official claims To these countries and beyond in killed, Larbi Ben M’hidi, one of the itself as a great power, as Winston that 25-year-old mathematician the region, Macron’s words when key leaders of Algeria’s National Churchill was in the United King- Maurice Audin had escaped from he visited Maurice Audin’s widow Liberation Front was arrested, dom. prison and disappeared. ring true: “It is important that tortured and killed. He was 33 or What dishonoured France par- The risk of opening old wounds history be known and confronted 34. The French killed some of the ticularly regarding Algeria was that is real but, as with former French with courage and lucidity.” brightest and best of Algeria from the Army of Liberation of 1944-45 President Jacques Chirac’s deci- It is a message the Turkish presi- 1954-62, leaving second-raters to that fought in Italy and later in sion to accept, two decades ago, dent and Israeli prime minister and rule the newly independent state. France consisted of nine colonial the complicity of the French state many Arab leaders seem incapable The war of liberation did not divisions made up of Algerian, in the deportation of French Jews of acknowledging, let alone act- end in 1962. French nuclear tests Moroccan, Senegalese and Tuni- to German concentration camps ing on. US leaders appear closer continued in the Sahara well sian troops and two Free French during the second world war, to such leaders today than to the after independence, thousands of divisions. That could have offered Macron understands that accept- president of France. “disappeared” Algerians never re- a chance for a new social contract ing the past, however painful, is Audin, who taught mathematics turned home and the French Army between the French and North key to building the future. This is at the University of Algiers, was only gave its Algerian counterparts Africans after 1945. something neither Turkish nor Is- arrested at his home at the height a map of the anti-personnel mines Macron’s gesture comes when raeli leaders understand or accept of the battle of Algiers on June it had planted on the frontiers of Europe, not least France, is con- regarding the harsh treatment their 11, 1957, by officers from the First Algeria in 2007. fronted with a deteriorating situa- Coming clean on his predecessors meted out to Armeni- Parachute Regiment of the French There is a much larger story here tion in the western Mediterranean. country’s history in ans and Palestinians. Army. He was taken to Villa Susini than the specifics of the Audin Coming clean on his country’s Algeria is a small Macron’s gesture comes at a time in the fashionable neighbourhood affair, which sullied the honour history in Algeria is a small step when torture is much practised of El-Biar for interrogation. of the French Army and that of in building greater trust between step in building throughout the world, when One of the last people to see Au- many France’s politicians. Francois France and Maghreb countries. greater trust rendering of alleged members din alive was Henri Alleg, the for- Mitterrand, who was minister of of al-Qaeda to be tortured by US mer editor of the Alger républicain. justice in 1956-57, allowed extraju- Francis Ghilès is an associate between France and operatives in various countries Pressed to tell Alleg how torture dicial death sentences in Algeria on fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Maghreb countries. around the world is accepted prac- would feel, Audin said: “It is tough, the basis that it served as a severe International Affairs. September 23, 2018 17 News & Analysis East West

Viewpoint The Iranian regime must really be desperate to bet on Kerry’s help

Khairallah Khairallah ing with Zarif as “unseemly and unprecedented” behaviour from a former secretary of state. ohn Kerry’s grasp of Middle In other words, Kerry was East issues has been limited “actively undermining” US policy from the start. What he says towards Iran and basically hurt- in his new book, “Every Day ing the United States. Whether as is Extra,” about the person- chairman of the US Senate Foreign ality of Syrian President Relations Committee or as secretary JBashar Assad shows he may have of state, Kerry behaved strangely in been exposed to facts of the region a manner that tells us that he was but did not necessarily seize their essentially unfit for all those heavy significance. responsibilities. Before he took over from Hillary What we know now is that Kerry Clinton as secretary of state in US doesn’t really know what he wants President Barack Obama’s second except to defend a legacy that has term, Kerry was chairman of the proven to be a disaster on more than Senate Foreign Relations Commit- one front. This legacy includes the tee. He writes in his book of how nuclear deal with Iran, considered Assad looked him straight in the by Obama as the major achievement eye and denied the existence of a of his presidency. nuclear reactor in Deir ez-Zor, which Why Kerry wants to hold on to Israeli warplanes destroyed in Sep- the disaster left by Obama is a big tember 2007. Kerry knew the details mystery. The man is pretending to of the operation and concluded that possess a profound knowledge of Assad was a liar. the Middle East while he remains After the assassination of Rafik a prisoner of a set of shallow ideas Hariri in Beirut in 2005, Kerry and that had guided the Obama admin- his wife were guests of Assad in istration’s policies in the region. Damascus. Kerry helped rehabilitate One such an idea is that Iran is the Syrian regime on the interna- playing a positive role in the region. tional scene without raising the I guess nobody could see at the time slightest question about its role that the only difference between in the horrible bombing in Beirut. the Islamic State and Iran-backed Wild card. A Ghadr H ballistic missile on display by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Likewise in the Iranian case, Kerry militias in the region was that the Tehran. (AP) could not see that the problem with former is Sunni and the latter are Iran lies more in its expansionist Shias. project than with its nuclear pro- Whether Kerry maintains rela- gramme. tions with Zarif or not is not the Kerry was a key player in setting problem. The main issue is that Trump administration US foreign policy objectives after remains captive of Zarif’s deceptive 2012. He had outlined the big points games. for a deal with Iran since his time on It remains to be seen whether a the Senate Foreign Relations Com- real change will now take place in raises alarm about Iran’s mittee and he used Oman’s media- Washington but what we have seen tion to negotiate the deal with Iran. of the US policy towards Iran is Why didn’t he lift a finger to rather reassuring. What is less reas- redress Obama’s misguided position suring are the US positions in Iraq in the summer of 2013 when the US is that Mohammed al-Halbousi’s missile programme president refused to officially react recent victory in the election for to the Syrian regime’s use of chemi- the speaker of the Iraqi parliament cal weapons in its war against the represents a major disappointment Thomas Frank tems often go hand-in-hand with Iran has continued to develop and Syrian population in Ghouta? for Iraqis who were counting on the nuclear development. Ballistic mis- test ballistic missiles. Iran’s pace of Every day we see a new page United States and its envoy Brett siles are the most likely way Iran missiles did not diminish after the of that Iranian programme taking McGurk to do something about Washington would deliver a nuclear weapon. Iran [nuclear] deal was implement- shape in Lebanon or Syria or Iraq or Iran’s hold on Iraqi affairs. Halbousi They must be addressed together ed in January 2016. They’ve con- Yemen. Kerry couldn’t have missed is Iran’s man and McGurk was left top US diplomat warned with Iranian nuclear weapons,” ducted multiple ballistic missile that programme because it was no looking like an amateur. that Iran’s “lawless pur- Hook said. launches since then,” Hook said. mystery that Iran has been targeting In any case, the US economic suit of ballistic missiles” A ballistic missile has a high, arc- Hook said the State Department Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait. sanctions against Iran are begin- A is endangering the Mid- ing trajectory, falls to the ground was working with allies in the Mid- The 1996 terrorist bombing in Kho- ning to bear fruit. Iran’s frenzy to dle East and countries as far away unpowered and can travel thou- dle East and Europe to constrain bar was planned in Damascus and unabashedly continue to impose its as Western Europe, which Tehran sands of miles. Ballistic missiles Iran’s missile programme. After was obvious proof of Iran’s expan- will on the Iraqis belies its desperate could target if it continues devel- have a greater range but less ac- his speech at a Washington think- sionism. Wasn’t that proof enough need to show that it holds enough oping its missile programme. curacy than cruise missiles, which tank, Hook avoided answering a for Kerry? cards in the region and that it is The discovery of Iran-made mis- are self-propelled for almost their question from the audience about In his book, Kerry said that he still ready for a showdown. siles in Saudi Arabia — fired by entire flight. whether the United States would meets with Iranian Foreign Affairs The second wave of sanctions, Houthi rebels from neighbouring Hook noted that Iran has said it allow China and India to continue Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. He coming in November, will show two Yemen — illustrates the danger was trying to develop a long-range, to import Iranian oil if those coun- said he counselled patience because things: how far Iraq is willing to go of Iran’s programme to develop precision-guided cruise missile tries helped put pressure on Iran things are going to change in the in its showdown with the United short-, medium- and long-range and recently unveiled two short- over its missile programme. United States and that matters will States and whether America is seri- ballistic missiles, Brian Hook, US range ballistic missiles that could return to their normal course. ous about wiping out Iran’s expan- State Department special envoy for hit targets 500-700km away. What we understand from his sionist project. Iran, said in a speech September 19. The exclusion of Iran’s missile Brian Hook, US State words is that the United States will Tehran must be forced to un- programme from the nuclear ac- “When you look at the number Department be backtracking on its decision to derstand that it is not accepted as of [Iranian] missiles launched from cord negotiated in 2015 drew criti- special envoy exit the nuclear deal with Iran. US a regional player in any shape or Yemen to inside Saudi Arabia, this cism from some US officials and for Iran President Donald Trump’s secre- form. Its desperate bet on Kerry is truly a threat to international lawmakers at the time and was a tary of state, Mike Pompeo, reacted reflects the extent of its political peace and security. This is very major reason that Trump withdrew “When you look at the quickly and described Kerry’s meet- bankruptcy. dangerous work that they’re do- from the deal in May. number of [Iranian] missiles ing,” Hook said. Former US President Barack launched from Yemen to Hook’s warnings come less than Obama and his European partners inside Saudi Arabia, this is three weeks after reports that Iran at the time said it would be impos- truly a threat to international transferred short-range ballistic sible to get Iran to agree to curb peace and security.” missiles to its Shia proxies in Iraq both its nuclear and missile pro- and that satellite photos revealed gramme. an Iranian missile-production fa- Iran’s compliance with the nu- Hook spoke generally about the cility in western Syria. Iran’s For- clear accord, known as the Joint reinstatement of US sanctions but eign Ministry denied transferring Comprehensive Plan of Action said nothing about possible waiv- missiles to Iraq. (JCPOA), “somehow became a seal ers to certain countries. Hook’s speech was part of a cam- of approval that Iran was fine in The United States intends to re- paign by the administration of US all the other categories” of Iranian instate sanctions on Iranian oil ex- President Donald Trump to draw malfeasance, such as exporting ter- ports in early November and Hook attention to Iran’s missile pro- rorism and destabilising the Middle said the goal was “to get imports gramme, which has been overshad- East, Hook said. of Iran oil to zero.” China and India owed by Iran’s nuclear programme. The JCPOA was accompanied by are major importers of Iranian oil. The efforts to develop missiles and a UN Security Council resolution China has said it intended to con- nuclear weapons are tightly linked, that weakened prohibitions on tinue to buy Iranian crude, a move Hook said, noting that the ballistic Iran’s missile programme that had that could draw US sanctions. India Disastrous legacy. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry takes missiles under development could been contained in an earlier resolu- reduced its purchases of Iranian oil part in a discussion titled “The Iran Nuclear Deal: Reflections on be used to carry nuclear weapons tion. and is asking the United States for the First Two Years” at Chatham House in London, last November. to Western Europe. “The reality that UN member a waiver from sanctions so it can (AP) “Enhancements in ballistic sys- states ignore at their peril is that continue some imports. 18 September 23, 2018 Economy

Qatar Airways posts $69 million loss amid Gulf row

The Arab Weekly staff longer routes, raising fuel costs. It cancelled flights to 18 destinations. The economic implications of the Dubai airlines’ modifications of its routes were the source of additional pres- atar Airways announced sures. “It is painful because there that it lost $69 million are many routes that slide as much in the financial year that as 2 1/2 hours longer, and there are Q ended last March 31, the routes that are narrow-body routes clearest admission yet of the effect where we had to convert to wide- sanctions imposed by the Saudi- body in order to carry enough fuel led Arab Quartet have had on the to go the longer distance,” said the Qatari economy. Qatar Airways CEO. The Qatari national airline said The airline tried to mitigate the the period had been “the most effects of the dispute by estab- challenging year” in its 20-year lishing flights to 14 new destina- history. tions, increasing flights on existing Saudi Arabia, the United Arab routes and leasing aircraft to other Admitting Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain broke airlines. Its effort was not, howev- losses. A 2017 off diplomatic relations with Qatar er, fully successful. file picture on June 5, 2017. They closed all land, “New destinations come with shows Qatar sea and air links with Doha over its launch costs and the necessity to Airways CEO close ties with Iran and alleged sup- establish market presence, which Akbar port for radical Islamist groups. resulted in an overall net loss,” Qa- al-Baker tar Airways said. speaking at a The announcement was The airline said it carried 29.2 news the clearest admission yet million passengers in the year to conference. (AP) of the effect sanctions March 31, down from 32 million a imposed by the Saudi-led year earlier. “This turbulent year has inevita- access to 18 cities, including pop- months that it might need to ask I’m sure that the government will Arab Quartet have had on bly had an impact on our financial ular destinations in Saudi Arabia the Qatari government for a capital be prepared to inject capital, be- the Qatari economy. results,” said Qatar Airways Group and the United Arab Emirates. It injection. cause Qatar Airways is a very im- Qatar Airways said the boycott CEO Akbar al-Baker. However, he had to operate longer flights on The option of a government bail- portant economic tool,” He said. directly affected its revenues. The said, “the effect has… certainly not some routes to avoid the airspace out was raised last May by al-Baker airline said seat occupancy on been as negative as our neighbour- of the four countries, which in- but described as “some time away.” (With additional reporting flights leaving Qatar was down 19% ing countries may have hoped for.” creases costs. “At the moment I don’t need it, by Agence France-Presse and and its fleet had been forced to fly The dispute cost Qatar Airways The company warned in recent but if this blockade continues then Reuters.)

Viewpoint Turkey’s economy is in dead end under Erdogan

ou can fool all the States and Europe, another promi- pening. They are likely aware that possible and Turkey’s media have people some of nent villain in Erdogan’s narratives. their long-term efforts to reduce shown themselves adept at brewing the time and some For years, Erdogan got away with dependence on Western finance, amnesia-inducing potions to feed “ of the people all this because investors viewed his by securing alternative sources of the captive domestic audience. Oliver Wright the time but you rhetoric as meant for domestic investment and promoting a more Turkey’s economic problems are can’t fool all the consumption and did not reflect his self-sufficient economic model, are deep-rooted, so reforms needed peopleY all the time.” real beliefs. not progressing fast enough to save to get it on track will be painful Turks are feeling the pain as This has changed, especially the day. and prolonged. Such an approach the long-forecast economic storm since a meeting between Erdogan Neither is the shorter-term strat- would leave Erdogan vulnerable finally breaks. Among other con- and investors in May that wrecked egy of cosying up to Europe likely to losing face and support, with- sequences, the fallout threatens to Erdogan’s credibility in financial to pay dividends. Turkey’s credibil- out achieving immediate tangible erode support for President Recep circles because financiers began ity is shot. European governments results. Tayyip Erdogan. to take unorthodox economic have not forgotten occasions in the The alternative is to let the To deflect blame for the debacle, pronouncements at face value — recent past when they played the economy burn, keep blaming it on Erdogan and his chorus in Turkey’s and the replacement of Finance role of Turkey’s villain. Investors, little green men and trust the me- largely subservient media dou- Minister Mehmet Simsek with the likewise, have little faith in a coun- dia to sell it to the populace. Should bled down on a tried-and-trusted president’s son-in-law . try where the rule of law collapsed the spin not be entirely successful, narrative that portrays Turkey as a Subsequently, Western investors as Erdogan cemented his grip on there is always the option, again rising star whose inevitable ascent became increasingly reluctant to power. well-honed, of demonising those a merry-go-round cast of rivals put money into Turkey, accelerat- This bodes for a long, cold winter who object, irrespective of prior and ne’er-do-wells are intent on ing the economic deterioration. As in Turkey. records of loyalty. The police have thwarting. Latest in the firing line is Turkey’s economy foundered, so For Erdogan, there is no easy plenty of experience in suppressing the United States, accused, among Erdogan, in turn, voiced increas- way out, primarily because he has dissent on the streets. other things, of having initiated an ingly divisive and conspiratorial conflated what is good for himself Because Erdogan seems to economic war against Ankara. explanations, further alienating personally with what is good for believe many of the eye-watering Regardless of the extent to which Western capital. Turkey. theories he airs, this approach has such assertions reflect reality, they The situation amounts to a feed- Erdogan has shown himself capa- the benefit of conforming to his serve the useful purpose of keeping forward loop, one in which increas- ble of pragmatic turns on numer- self-image as honest, heart-on-the- Erdogan’s support base onside as ing economic problems engender ous occasions in the past, recently sleeve man of the Muslim people economic pain grows but promul- increasingly hostile conspiracy in his attempt at rapprochement who acts on his conviction. gating this narrative has an obvious theories that further undermine the with the European Union, some of Erdogan may also fail to grasp downside. economy. whose leaders he labelled, not so the consequences of such a course Turkey’s economy depends on How long this can go on is long ago, “Nazi remnants.” That of action, even as it unfolds. He is foreign investment and much of anyone’s guess. Erdogan and his he might pull a similar volte-face isolated and insulated in his palace, the cash comes from the United advisers must know what is hap- over issues with the United States is shielded by filters and advisers who are, for the most part, no less unconsciously self-serving than he. They will ensure that, as the pain increases, the messages penetrat- ing the inner sanctum are screened such that the voices of those citizens who say they consider the economic hardship worthwhile are represented as the norm. The chances of Erdogan over- seeing a meaningful recovery of the Turkish economy, therefore, appear slim. He is out of touch, out of date and, increasingly, out of time. Besides, it was Erdogan who got Turkey into this mess, so it is unlikely he can get it out. Those who believe he can consist of his cynical loyalists who profit from it and the foolish.

Oliver Wright completed a For Erdogan, there is doctorate in cognitive psychology no easy way out, at the University of Surrey. He lived in Turkey from 2006-18, primarily because he working as an academic in the has conflated what is psychology departments of Bilkent good for him and Bahcesehir universities. This article originally appeared on personally with what Not interested. People walk past a street vendor offering Turkish flags and posters of President ahvalnews.com. It is reprinted with is good for Turkey. Recep Tayyip Erdogan for sale at a market in Istanbul. (AP) permission. September 23, 2018 19 Economy Tourism in MENA

Tourism grows in MENA region with Dubai Briefs Sudan names new drawing one-third of foreign tourism receipts central bank chief as inflation soars Caline Malek malls, eased visa regulations, lux- than $64 billion in its entertain- ury hotels and internationally re- ment sector, with more than 5,000 Sudanese President Omar al- nowned festivals. Such concerted events planned for the coming Bashir named a former finance Abu Dhabi efforts are sure to pave the way for year,” Hmedan said. “This positions official as central bank governor, the city to achieve DTCM’s Tourism Saudi as the go-to destination for a day after a new cabinet was he Middle East and North Vision 2020.” regional travel by families and cul- sworn in tasked with curbing Africa region is increasingly The opening of new hotels in ture lovers, especially from Dubai soaring inflation. becoming a leading tourist 2019 across Abu Dhabi combined and Bahrain.” Mohamed Khair al-Zubair, a for- T destination, with Emirati with its unique cultural archetypes, As a result, the job market in the mer minister of state for finance attractions leading the list of places diverse natural offerings and dy- MENA region is also set to improve, who served as central bank gover- to visit in 2018. namic family-leisure entertainment with the World Travel and Tourism nor from 2011-13, was appointed Among locations mentioned in options are expected to collectively Council’s “City Travel and Tourism by presidential order, al-Bashir’s Time magazine’s list of MENA sites attract 8.5 million tourists by 2021. Impact 2017 Middle East and Af- office said. were the Louvre Abu Dhabi, Warn- “Tourism is a key driver for the rica” report noting that 2.8% of jobs The bank had been without er Bros. World Abu Dhabi along social and economic development in the region are supported by trav- a governor since June 16 when with the King Abdulaziz Centre for of Abu Dhabi, as well as a significant el and tourism. The Middle East ac- Hazem Abdelqader died of a heart World Culture in Saudi Arabia, the contributor to the UAE’s diversifi- counts for 6.8% of the global travel attack while visiting Turkey. Qarawiyyin Library in Morocco and cation strategy,” said Mubarak al- and tourism GDP. Cairo’s Marriott Mena House Hotel. Shamsi, director of the Abu Dhabi “These numbers are only set to (Agence France-Presse) “Vibrancy of the tourism indus- Convention Bureau at the Depart- grow in the near future,” Hmedan try in the MENA region can be at- ment of Culture and Tourism Abu added. “Therefore, we expect this tributed to a myriad of factors, chief Dhabi. high-potential sector to carry on among them being the substantial “Tourism is vital for protecting, with enabling sustainable econom- UAE’s BPGIC plans government initiatives to boost enhancing and promoting cultural ic growth, job creation and diversi- tourism,” said Mamoun Hmedan, heritage. This is a unique value fication, in the region.” to float 40% in managing director for MENA and proposition of Abu Dhabi and has He said such a rise in tourism also London IPO India at travel search engine Wego. been since the first tourism depart- presents significant opportunities “Then there is the kaleidoscope ment and museum were set up by for entrepreneurship in destina- UAE firm Brooge Petroleum and of shared historical and cultural our late founding father, Sheikh tion management, tour provisions, Gas Investment Company (BPGIC) heritage set against the backdrop Zayed, in 1969.” infrastructure management and plans to float 40% of its capital of stunning cityscapes, beaches, “We have continued to build on other tourism-led activities, while on the London Stock Exchange oases and rolling desert landscape this legacy, paired with the intro- sustained infrastructural invest- in October, BPGIC Vice-Chairman that just seem to magnetically draw duction of world-class attractions ments, by the government and pri- Housam Elemri said. tourists to the region.” like the recently opened Louvre vate companies, will better support BPGIC is looking to raise $400 A better security climate is draw- Abu Dhabi and Warner Bros. World the growing tourist influx. million from Emirati and foreign ing foreign tourists back in such Abu Dhabi, to reinforce Abu Dhabi The industry is said to represent investors in the initial public of- places as Tunisia and Egypt. as a 21st-century city,” he said. a fundamental economic pillar for fering (IPO), to be conducted in a Hmedan mentioned some re- In Dubai, there was a 2% annual the future of the region as it grad- single tranche, Elemri said. gional tourist gems attracting visi- increase in tourists in April from a ually shifts away from oil. “The The IPO plan comes as the tors, including the Jordan trail, Mo- year ago, with more Russians and economy cannot survive on oil as it company plans to boost storage rocco’s Chefchaouen and Jordan’s Chinese visiting. The emirate re- has been for so many years,” Mahta- capacity for crude and oil prod- Dead Sea. ceived 4.7 million visitors in the first ni said. “Dubai has shown that the ucts in the Fujairah oil hub in the “Also taking the lead with its tour- quarter of the year, with a target of UAE can survive without depend- United Arab Emirates. ism prowess is Dubai, which makes 20 million tourists yearly by 2020. Stunning landmark. A tourist ing on oil and Abu Dhabi has taken for nearly one-third of the Middle “The numbers have gone up couple takes a photo in front of a good lead in terms of cultural at- (Reuters) East’s total international tourism and the type of tourists is slightly Burj Khalifa in Dubai. (Reuters) tractions. receipts, according to United Na- changing,” said Vinayak Mahtani, “Oman has also become a desti- tions World Tourism Organisation’s CEO of Bnbme, a holiday home nation for eco-friendly, sustainable Saudi central bank latest annual report,” Hmedan said. management company in the UAE. which is phenomenal.” high-end luxury hotels so countries governor says “The Dubai Department of Tour- “Qataris are not coming here any- MENA Research Partners said the like Bahrain and Kuwait will need ism and Commerce Marketing more but Europeans are. Chinese region’s tourism industry is expect- to step it up to keep up with the economy can grow (DCTM) continues to raise the bar and Indians are in the highest ed to reach $350 billion by 2027. trend.” by investing in creative campaigns numbers than ever before, with “Even the General Entertainment 1.9% this year to promote the city’s stunning China experiencing a 30% growth Authority in Saudi Arabia recently Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly Saudi Arabia’s economy can landmarks, world-class shopping in terms of numbers coming here, announced plans to invest more contributor in Abu Dhabi. achieve an International Mon- etary Fund (IMF) forecast for Viewpoint 1.9% GDP growth this year if all indicators remain unchanged, central bank Governor Ahmed al-Kholifey said. Tourism growth a ‘mixed blessing’ for some countries in the Middle East After annual consultations with the Saudi government in August, the IMF predicted Saudi region but because many Middle Project at the Centre for Strate- Istanbul, you feel like you’re going Arabia’s GDP would grow 1.9% in Eastern countries are tapping gic and International Studies in to Paris.” 2018 partly because of higher oil new markets. They are hopeful of Washington. He said increas- The other important factor is output, after shrinking 0.9% last Tom Regan attracting tourists from emerging ing arrivals in Turkey can be the lira’s fall. Tourists love bar- year. economies, especially India and explained by the return of the gains, Aliriza said, and the decline China. Russians and the fall of the Turk- of its currency makes Turkey an (Reuters) While the average number of ish lira. attractive destination. As part of visitors to the region is below the “Russia provides the largest the 100-day programme he an- global average, it is improving number of tourists to Turkey in nounced in early August, Erdogan Indian oil refinery year on year. This is particularly terms of percentage,” Aliriza said. said Turkey would be looking to part-owned by true for Turkey and Egypt. “The Russian tourists stopped expand in new markets such as The World Tourism Organisa- coming because of the crisis in India and China. Iranian company tion stated that Turkey was the terms of the shooting down of the Experts agree that from 2017, cancels Iran oil fter the start of eighth most popular tourism des- Russian jet. The Russian govern- both Turkey and Egypt are more the “Arab spring” tination in 2017, with almost 38 ment made it a bit more difficult stable than in previous years. imports in 2010-11, tour- million tourism arrivals. That puts for Russian tourists to go to Tur- Egypt, like Turkey, has suffered a ism in the Middle Turkey just a few hundred thou- key and therefore they stopped currency devaluation, making it India’s Chennai Petroleum will East stalled. Per- sand visitors behind the United coming.” a bargain for tourists. Both Egypt stop processing Iranian crude haps “plummeted” Kingdom. While Turkey has been Tourism figures from 2016 and Turkey offer historical and oil beginning in October to keep wouldA be a better word. The drop one of the most popular tourist and 2017 bear out the changing cultural sites that are hard to find its insurance coverage once new in tourist arrivals and tourism destinations for years, 2017 saw nature of Turkey’s relationship elsewhere. sanctions by the United States receipts was precipitous. Visitors a 24.1% increase on 2016 arrivals. with Russia. In 2016, Turkey drew That said, Aliriza warned against Iran go into effect, three from Europe and North America Turkey also had a 12.8% increase just more than 855,000 Russian against complacency. Turkey and sources familiar with the issue — the big spenders — stayed away, in tourism receipts in 2017, the visitors. In 2017, after relations be- Egypt could be severely hit by ter- said. afraid of the violent upheaval in largest annual rise of any country. tween Russian President Vladimir rorist attacks, he said. Iran’s Naftiran Intertrade many countries in the region, as Egypt also did well. After Putin and Turkish President “Both countries are one bad Company Ltd, a trading arm for well as terrorist attacks on foreign disastrous 2015 and 2016 tour- Recep Tayyip Erdogan improved, incident away from having the state-owned National Iranian Oil visitors, especially in Egypt. ism seasons, there was a massive the number skyrocketed to just recovery stall. If there was an Co, owns a 15.4% stake in Chennai That may be changing. The rebound in visitors. The World less than 4.7 million — 15% of all attack on a bus full of tourists in Petroleum, which has two refiner- United Nations’ World Tourism Tourism Organisation report visitors to Turkey. Alexandria or Giza, or in front ies with a combined capacity of Organisation’s 2018 report has en- listed Egypt the world’s fastest Iranians were among the un- of the Sultan Ahmed Mosque in 230,000 barrels of oil per day. couraging news. The region saw growing tourism destination in expected arrivals who boosted Istanbul, it would have an imme- United India Insurance a 13% increase in tourist arrivals; 2017, with a 55.1% increase in ar- Turkey’s tourism numbers. Ira- diate effect on people,” he said. informed Chennai Petroleum Bahrain, Jordan and the Palestin- rivals. Not only did some Europe- nian visitors increased by almost “The higher the level of terrorism that its annual policy, set to take ian territories saw strong growth an tourists return to Egypt, it also 800,000 to 2.4 million in 2017. and the more publicity it gets, the effect in October, would not cover and traditionally popular spots, drew visitors from new markets to “Iranians find it difficult to trav- lower the level of tourism.” liabilities related to processing such as Lebanon and the United the east. The influx brought Egypt el to other countries,” said Aliriza, It’s a good point. But, for now, crude from Iran, the sources said. Arab Emirates, continued to enjoy close to past tourism numbers “but you may know the old adage, the outlook is good. This forced the refinery to cancel sustained growth. and is a sign that foreigners once if you come from the East, Turkey a scheduled loading of 1 million The changing picture is not again feel it’s safe to visit. is a Western country and, if you Tom Regan is a regular barrels in October, they said. because tourists from Europe The changing picture is a mixed come from the West, Turkey is contributor to The Arab and North America are return- blessing, said Bulent Aliriza, an Eastern country. So, if you get Weekly and a columnist at (Reuters) ing in large numbers to the founding director of the Turkey on a plane in Tehran and travel to factsandopinion.com. 20 September 23, 2018 Society Media IT Skills gap exacerbates cybersecurity problem as Middle East faces threats

N.P. Krishna Kumar

Dubai

riven by digital transfor- mation projects begun by businesses and govern- D ments, the Middle East IT industry is seeing many transitions. With newer technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data and the internet of things (IoT), being introduced, the de- mand for skilled professionals, data scientists and cybersecurity experts is increasing. Cybersecurity has become a top priority for companies and gov- ernments with cyber-attacks and breaches increasing. It has become vital to have skilled cybersecurity professionals to protect the region’s critical systems, enterprises and citizens. However, several industry reports stated there is a large shortage in cy- Necessary bersecurity skills and the demand- skills. supply gap is increasing. Participants Fady Younes, operations direc- receive tor of East Region at Cisco Middle intensive East, said demand for cybersecu- cybersecurity rity experts has grown three times training faster than any other IT role, with at SANS more than 1 million cybersecurity Institute. positions available worldwide. The (SANS Institute) deficit is estimated to rise to 2 mil- lion next year. facturing, transportation of oil and (up from 25% in 2016 and 22% in “The very digital nature of our age, this is exacerbated in the Mid- Younes said the gap in the cyber- gas, utilities, education, banking 2015). lives today meant that our critical dle East, where organisations typi- security skills lies in the disconnec- and finance, health care and retail,” “As a technology company, we are infrastructure, commercial sys- cally have smaller IT teams than tion between perception and reality Younes said. committed to making our contribu- tems, citizen data and sensitive IT Western counterparts and there- of security preparedness. “While In a world where everything is tion to diminishing this cyberse- were at greater risk of attack from fore struggle to keep on top of new many chief information security connected, everything is vulnerable curity skill gap. Through our Cisco cybercriminals than ever,” Lyne threats and technologies. officers believe their security pro- and the increasingly digital world is Networking Academy, we offer free said. The solution is in teaching appro- cesses are optimised and their se- more exposed to cyber-attacks and training at universities, schools, He said this was demonstrated by priate digital skills in schools. curity tools are effective, we believe cyberespionage. NGOs, government entities and vo- Shamoon, the cyberattack against Lyne said there were steps organi- that their security readiness likely “These attacks are dramatically cational colleges across the region. state-owned energy enterprises in sations could take, including train- needs improvement,” he said. impacting businesses, their bot- We have trained over 390,300 stu- Saudi Arabia, “as well as other at- ing IT staff, which can be the best “This disconnect, along with rap- tom line, customers and often their dents across 532 academies in 14 tacks on public sector institutions way to quickly develop necessary idly evolving regulatory require- most prized asset, trust and integ- countries in the Middle East over like health care, which have raised technical skills. Second, people are ments and networking technology, rity. According to Cisco’s recently the last 20 years,” Younes said. the profile of cybersecurity among among the weakest links in cyber- further widens the cybersecurity released ‘2018 Annual Cybersecu- the wider population.” security. If each employee under- rity Report,’ more than half of all at- “Industrial control systems have stands his effect on organisational skills gap. Matters don’t get easier if The solution is in you throw IoT into the mix.” tacks resulted in financial damages been widely adopted throughout security, the company is more likely By 2030, it is projected that 500 of more than $500,000. Defending teaching appropriate the region and there is a great in- to avoid obvious pitfalls. billion devices will be connected to against the bad guys has never been digital skills in schools. terest in automation projects like Outsourcing can work for smaller the internet. As the IoT gains trac- as challenging and as rewarding as it Smart Cities. These developments organisations that cannot afford tion, the lack of security standards is now,” said Younes. James Lyne, head of research and represent a great opportunity in dedicated cybersecurity profession- in IoT devices will exacerbate the The Cisco “2018 Security Capabil- development at the SANS Institute, the region, but they are also attrac- als. “This allows IT to offload the security skills gap. ities Benchmark Study” stated that said cybersecurity should be a key tive targets for cybercriminals, as responsibility of key security func- “Cybersecurity would be a major a shortage of qualified candidates consideration for every organisa- attacks like Triton/TriSYS demon- tions to trained experts,” Lyne said. concern in the Middle East for in- was one of the main obstacles to se- tion and this includes developing a strate,” Lyne added. dustries leading the way in terms curity with 27% of those asked cit- pipeline of skilled industry profes- While cybersecurity industry N.P. Krishna Kumar is an Arab of IoT investment such as manu- ing a deficit of trained professionals sionals. overall suffers a serious skills short- Weekly contributor in Dubai. UAE introduces media licensing norms for commercial bloggers

N.P. Krishna Kumar “The issue of licensing did over- of good in that it has slowed down step into social media just for the with various notable beauty, fash- shadow the overall necessity to the growth of the ‘everyone’s an money and not for the storytelling, ion, health and wellness brands. comply with the content regula- influencer’ phase — something which made all platforms difficult Apart from the blog, she operates Dubai tions and I do think that we cannot which was for a while completely to filter.” a communications consultancy in emphasise this aspect enough,” spinning out of control.” Mariam Saadyeh’s social me- Dubai. he United Arab Emirates’ Robertson said. “Those who op- “The new regulations have pro- dia activity is a solo practice of “Given that I already had a li- National Media Council’s erate commercially as online con- vided a framework to ensure real 1-minute makeup tutorials, tips cence set up for my company, I new licensing norms for tent publishers should not make content creators didn’t have to and tricks and different looks. Her did not require to get an additional T paid social media bloggers assumptions about their ability to compete with ‘selfie posers’ look- page is a mini vlog for those look- licence and thus was able to carry and influencers have been in place post any and all content. There is ing for a few freebies in return for ing for ideas on how to apply their out activity on the blog front as since June, affecting social media a fine line between content that is minimal effort and a handful of makeup and how to mix and match usual,” Moti said. accounts conducting activities of a edgy and content that is illegal.” artfully taken photos.” different colours and products. “I think the law was much need- commercial nature Feras Arafe, managing director “Honestly, having the licence ed in the UAE market. It has defi- “The government wishes to en- of Influencers.ae, the region’s first Content creator Lowi Sahi didn’t really make a difference to nitely helped regulate the industry sure that media outlets, including data-driven influencer marketing me,” she said. “Those (who are) and led to a lot more transparency those that operate commercially platform, said: “Influencer mar- “The new law is very fair as, blogging for the sake of sharing when negotiating collaborations online and in social media, are keting has a funny love-hate rela- earlier, people used to step into their opinions or seeking feedback and campaigns with influencers.” complying with the various con- tionship in the industry. There’s social media just for the money can still continue to do so.” Luanne D’Souza, on the other tent regulations that are in force something of a negative stigma and not for the storytelling, Saadyeh said the social media hand, is still an independent blog- in the UAE,” said Fiona Robertson, around influencers but there’s no which made all platforms influencer world “has kind of got- ger. She said: “Currently, I am still senior associate — technology me- getting away from the fact that difficult to filter.” ten out of hand” and she said she active. I am taking my time decid- dia and telecommunications, with brands can’t seem to get enough of understands it needs to be con- ing on what my plan should be. I law firm Al Tamimi and Company. them.” Content creator Lowi Sahi, trolled. have a full-time job, so social me- She said the National Media The number of influencers sky- whose innovative storytelling has However, she stressed that “if a dia is just a hobby for now.” Council (NMC) created three cat- rocketed from 800 to more than attracted a big audience, said he blogger truly started blogging for She said she understood the egories of influencer licences — an 3,000 in two years and is set to get welcomed the move. “It makes the sake of sharing information logic behind the law, because “so- individual licence for independent bigger, Arafe said. sense that any type of business and knowledge, they should not cial media have a huge effect on influencers; a partnership licence “We believe the industry is still you do should be official and vis- mind not being endorsed as long our everyday lives and influencers for small groups of friends or fam- very much in its early days and ible to the government that’s pro- as they’re contributing to the com- should be posting responsibly.” ily who can set up a company to- has plenty of different paths to viding you indirectly the tools to munity.” “I think transparency in social gether; and one for practitioners go down before it morphs into its practise that business,” he said. Injeel Moti, founder and editor media is fantastic but I just wish it to sign up with official influencer mature shape,” he said. “This par- “The new law,” Sahi said, “is of the Beauty Blog ME, has been was accessible to influencers of all agencies certified by the NMC. ticular law has actually done a lot very fair as, earlier, people used to blogging for more than four years incomes,” she said. September 23, 2018 21 Society

Viewpoint Syrian refugees changed Egypt’s work culture, customer relations

the excellent service and treat- ment they get, something they say they had never experienced Mustafa Abid before. To attract customers, Syr- ian restaurants strive to offer gypt is capable of delicious and decent meals for absorbing many of affordable prices. That reflects the cultural mores of the value of the owners being foreigners who settle satisfied with modest profits. there. The number “For a mere 8 Egyptian pounds and variety of refugees — half of one US dollar — you Ewho have flocked to Egypt has can get a really satisfying and Struggling to find the way. A scene from “This Is Home.” (Open City Documentary Festival) made it impossible for Egyptian delicious sandwich at these authorities to set up reception restaurants,” said Mahmud. “The camps for them so they simply Syrians are genuinely interested melted in the Egyptian pot. Syrian in answering their customers’ in- refugees in particular, however, quiries and in knowing their feed- Compelling documentary left clear marks on the work ethic back regarding the food. It’s quite and habits of the Egyptian society. common for the manager of the Several waves of Syrian refu- establishment to ask you whether gees have hit Egyptian shores. As you liked your food or not and offers rare insight into Syrian they mingled and settled in Egyp- do it with a smile that makes you tian cities, their influence on the feel valued as a patron.” art of hospitality, bargaining and The same intelligent marketing customer treatment became obvi- strategies are applied in perfume refugees’ settling in Baltimore ous in daily transactions in Egypt. stores operated by Syrian refu- They revived and transformed for gees. Store employees never seem the better long-neglected work to tire of answering the same Alma Samkari based questionnaire was prepared differentiate the sounds and de- traditions in business and public questions from customers. to estimate the mental health of scriptions of missiles, bombs and administration. Atef Ismael, a school teacher London Syrian refugees who resettled in aircraft — something children are Most of the projects set up by in al-Muqattam south of Cairo, Sweden from 2011-13. The partici- not meant to witness. Syrian refugees in Egypt are in pointed out the smart marketing his Is Home” is a com- pants were a random sample of The documentary acknowledges restaurants, perfume-making strategy of offering free samples pelling documentary by 1,215 individuals from Syria aged the effect of US President Donald and manufacturing and selling to passing customers. “They re- “ award-winning director 18-64 years. Trump’s statements in 2016 and clothes. Specialised artisans have ally take the time to describe the TAlexandra Shiva that The survey included multiple how it leads to racist and Islamo- gone into plumbing, carpen- characteristics of each perfume shows the settling-in process for measures of mental health and phobic actions. This year, the Unit- try, watch repair, hair care and and its origin and the best times Syrian refugees in their new home factors of relevance for refugees. ed States has only taken 11 Syrian electric and electronic repair. for wearing it,” Ismael said. — Baltimore, Maryland, in the The results indicated that depres- refugees, while Europe has taken Egyptian professionals in those “They also make enticing offers United States. sion was the most common type about 14,000. fields have felt the heat of the like ‘Buy two products and get The film follows four families of problem, with 40.2% of partici- The documentary shares differ- competition created by the Syrian the third one free,’ or ‘Buy for a and their difficulties ranging from pants showing signs of it, followed ent opinions about refugees from refugees and have bent over back- certain amount and get a free gift simple tasks, such as grocery shop- by low subjective well-being at Americans. In one scene, Syrians ward to keep customers. for your wife or children.’ Despite ping, to harder undertakings, such 37.7%, anxiety (31.8%) and post- are in an elevator with Americans Elyas Nader and his extended the simplicity of these offers, local as learning English and finding a traumatic stress disorder (29.9%). and a young American girl hides family fled the Syrian city of Tar- perfume stores don’t make them. job. The survey concluded that ill behind her father, apparently tus three years ago and settled in The Syrians are smart and very Cultural and religious barriers mental health is highly elevated frightened by two women wearing Cairo. He and his brothers found skilled at enticing customers.” are explored in the documentary. and co-morbid among refugees a head scarf. Another scene shows no difficulty in opening sha- Many Egyptian perfume stores In one scene, a man refuses to from Syria, which makes address- the tugging of the headscarf of one warma restaurants that quickly have started imitating the mar- shake a woman’s hand because ing mental health issues and pro- of the refugees on a bus. developed a large base of faithful keting strategies introduced by some Muslims believe physical moting recovery essential. However, there are some Ameri- customers. the Syrians. contact between unmarried men “This is Home” explores gender cans who recognise their responsi- Nader said there were many A look at Egypt’s trade his- and women is forbidden. Some expectations in American soci- bility towards refugees. “We want reasons Syrian refugees favoured tory and traditions shows many would argue that it is disrespectful ety, where, often, both men and to be the greatest country in the Egypt as a migration destination. of the traditions in Egypt were to American culture. women must work to provide for world but we don’t treat people Syrians and Egyptians have much introduced by the various waves Hassan Akkad, a Syrian refugee the family. Some families face dif- like we’re the greatest country in in common in terms of social of Syrian migrants throughout who filmed his journey from Syria ficulties in accepting such roles the world,” an aid worker said, traditions and behaviour. Many history. What is happening today to Europe for BBCs “Exodus” se- because of cultural beliefs. For tearing up. of the cultures of the Middle East in Egypt is a revival of those ries, defended the man, saying: instance, one of the husbands A national survey indicated that have been interwoven through traditions. “Of course he should respect the refuses to allow his wife to work 51% of American respondents said a long history of interactions. Economic historian Ashraf al- American culture but do you ac- because he grew up in an envi- the United States has a responsi- The Egyptians, then, were not Leithi said Saydanawi, a founder tually expect someone who just ronment in which women were bility to accept refugees into the shocked by the behaviour of of the modern clothing trade in arrived three months ago to under- housewives, rather than working country, while 43% said it does Syrian refugees and the latter Egypt, was a migrant from the stand the American culture within outside the home. He eventually not. were not surprised by Egyptian Levant. He arrived in Egypt about three months and speak the lan- accepts this unfamiliar American The most heart-warming scene traditions. 80 years ago and had introduced guage and get on with his life? No. concept. is a refugee describing his feelings There are also the relatively the custom of displaying clothes In time he will.” The feeling of safety is a com- about missing Syria, his home and affordable living conditions in in shop windows. That tradition Manar Marzouk, programme co- mon theme in the documentary country. He calls Syria “my heart” Egypt, compared to neighbouring had been non-existent in Egypt. ordinator at Reset Communities because homes are meant to and gives an emotional tribute to countries. Despite the economic Mohamad Kamal, a print shop and Refugees charity, argued refu- be the safest place. A powerful the country. crisis in the country, many goods owner in Giza near Cairo, said: gees were treated like robots and scene showed children shouting The world is becoming desensi- and services are cheaper than in “Syrian designers are the best at were expected to adapt to a foreign “They’re coming! They’re com- tised to the scores of refugees, so Jordan, Turkey or Lebanon. A what they do. They are punctual lifestyle within eight months with- ing!” and running to their house to this documentary reminds viewers small family can live decently in and quite creative in designing out taking into consideration the hide when they hear a helicopter. these refugees are not just num- Egypt on $1,000 a month. advertising posters and banners.” effects of the trauma they faced. It reminded them of the aircraft bers but people. People have noted that Egyp- He said competition created by They want them to take on major that destroyed their home in Syria. It highlights the importance of tian consumers were the main the Syrians in the advertising responsibilities right away, forget- In another scene, children were integration within the community beneficiaries of changes brought business is pushing other profes- ting the violence they faced, not asked to place toys to create a sce- for refugees to feel more at home. about by the Syrian competition. sionals to hone their skills. providing psychological help and nario of their choice. They often One of the last scenes shows a Customer satisfaction is reigning With the beginning of the disregarding their mental health. showed the destruction of the church with people coming to- in Cairo. The Syrian competition European colonisation of the A cross-sectional, population- mini-world they built and could gether to sell tickets for a Syrian was instrumental in reviving Middle East during the mid-19th cuisine supper cooked by one of work ethic, such as driving for century and the beginning of the the refugees. perfection, diligence, respect for 20th century, waves of Levantine One of many ways of showing deadlines and appointments, refugees and immigrants fled to financial and emotional support accepting small gains, paying Egypt. Among them were many is by giving the family a chance to attention to details in product people of culture, artists and share their story of their journey presentation or in services pro- traders. They coloured the host- from Syria to Jordan and then to vided, creativity and artistry and ing society with their culture and the United States. attending to customer questions traditions. The documentary ends with a and concerns. Data released from the Cairo rosy picture of the families that Imed Mahmud, an accountant office of the UN High Commis- sharply contrasts with reality. for a food company in the city of sioner for Refugees state there are Reem al-Awadhi, managing direc- 6th of October, south-west of Cai- about 127,000 registered Syrian tor of Yalla Hub, said: “It is hard to ro, said most of the workers and refugees in Egypt. Egyptian offi- escape that narrative.” employees in the industrial zone cial sources place the real number “This is Home” is an intense, yet prefer to eat in Syrian restaurants. of Syrian refugees in Egypt at four uplifting, documentary that shows Indeed, there are dozens of Syr- times that number. refugees in a humane light. ian fast-food restaurants in the industrial zone and their custom- Mustafa Abid is an Egyptian Cultural dissonance. A scene from “This Is Home.” Alma Samkari is a London-based ers have grown accustomed to writer. (Open City Documentary Festival) writer. 22 September 23, 2018 Culture Interview Saudi writer Ahmed al-Duwaihi optimistic about prospects for modernity at home despite resistance

edented,” he said. “We used to “Let’s not forget that our be happy with the publication of society was conservative for just one novel each year. decades and will continue to Zaki al-Soudeir “Of course, this sudden resist modernisation trends. opening of the floodgates is both Having said that, “I’m convinced a literary release and a social that we can’t escape being part of audi novelist one. Our country is like a wide this modern world and that we Ahmed al-Duwaihi continent with a variety of will give to it and take from it, began his writing cultures. Such a flood of creativ- always pushing forward with career in the early ity received attention from the open eyes.” 1970s. He worked as outside because literature is the Duwaihi said the “religious a writer and copy art of revealing the hidden. revivalist movement” of the editor at several Saudi novels depicted a society 1960s stunted and deformed Saudi newspapers, shrouded in secrecy. social life. “It was anything but a Sincluding Okaz and al-Riyadh, “Besides, every creative renaissance movement,” he said, and al Yamamah magazine. He movement must be followed by a adding that it took the society in published several novels and critical evaluation. I believe that its clutches then started feeding recently finished writing his this could have happened here its backward ideology and latest novel in Arabic “The Lost in Saudi Arabia if we have had demonising anything different Female.” He has gathered the relevant research centres from it. material for a collection of and I’m hopeful that it will “Through its pulpits, this trend stories to appear under the title eventually happen.” opposed the arts, women, of “Tiny Details in an Enormous Duwaihi talked about freedom philosophy and life in general. Space.” of thought and speech and the Undoubtedly, figures of moder- freedom of the press, in particu- nity and the other social groups lar in Saudi Arabia and especially must have gone through virulent in the context of changes at the battles with this oppressive “I’m convinced that national level. movement,” he said. we can’t escape “I have spent many years “Through the decades, the being part of this serving the fourth estate,” he movement transformed the Hopeful realism. Saudi novelist Ahmed al-Duwaihi. (Al Arab) said. “I’ve trodden its many social order and atmosphere. modern world and fields as a contributor and Anyone who knows the society that we will give to it employee. I entered the press of southern Saudi Arabia, where “Change,” he said, “must come the power of those who pretend through the gates of literature I come from, will recognise how from inside the society and in to be the guardians of virtue.” and take from it.” and it has welcomed me with this ideology marred its outlook. stages. The government must Regarding the changes in Saudi Saudi novelist open arms. It wiped out the spirit of toler- play the role of the engine Arabia and the ability of Saudi Ahmed al-Duwaihi “The press as a profession and ance, relegated women to the behind this change. intellectuals to grasp their industry has gone through many background, forbade all signs of “You cannot expect a miracle significance, Duwaihi said that transformations, just like every joy and killed everything from a society that obsesses over “the entire population, not just Duwaihi said writing is an other domain in our country. beautiful and pleasing in society. tribal allegiances. I remember intellectuals, has high expecta- expression of civilisation The question of press freedom is I’m sure the same could be said that within the society of the tions of the changes and hopes requiring the sincere writer to be reflected by our ability to about all other regional societies Hijaz in particular, there used to that the new era will be one of always on top of his art, techni- approach perceived taboos. The in Saudi Arabia. be early signs of a modern progress and development. cally and in terms of contempo- press had played an important “This is why changes intro- civilised society. There used to “As citizens and intellectuals, rary knowledge. This allows him role by becoming a sincere and duced by the government have be a minimum of practical and we realise the importance of the to decipher and give meaning to honest critic of various govern- rekindled our hope for a new professional considerations that changes going on in the world reality. ment agencies. In that task, the normal reality. It would be a regulated social life and added a around us, especially in the Arab He said art has a guiding press had taken a constructive mistake to think that this oppres- touch of beauty to it. Then came world, and realise their effect on mission. It points out shortcom- approach for the benefit of the sive ideology has been eradi- the winds of obscurantism and us and elsewhere,” Duwaihi said. ings but it is an integral part of citizen and the nation.” cated for good. It is still here, wiped out every single hope.” “Therefore, our country must be the civilisation projects of Duwaihi added: “Now, the role hidden among us and you can He said: “Today, hope lies in placed above all the insignificant forward-looking countries. of the press is waning because of see samples of it in every what we can call the ‘soft details. The only place for a Duwaihi said that during the modern media technologies. household.” culture.’ We are witnessing the country like ours with its last couple of decades, writing Overall, it’s the entire country About the challenge posed by presence of women in football significant size, history, rel- novels in Saudi Arabia surpassed that is going through very modernists to the revivalist stadiums, cinema theatres, book evance and wealth can only be in all expectations in terms of delicate transformations and we movement, the Saudi writer said: fairs, markets and behind car our hearts and in the pupils of volume. “Every year, we witness are perfectly aware that any “At the time, unfortunately, steering wheels. There is new our eyes.” the publication of more than 100 modernisation effort brings its modernity in Saudi Arabia legislation giving them more novels written by people of both own set of challenges and couldn’t go beyond writing rights and placing limits on the Zaki al-Soudeir is a Saudi sexes and this is really unprec- problems. literature.” fascist male culture as well as on writer. 3D-printed statues kick off a storm in Kuwait

Mohamad Abdul Ghaffar pany, as saying it withdrew the them.” The controversy started after evil and it must be closed immedi- models out of concern for its em- “Certainly, we must have gone Islamist member of the Kuwaiti ately — if it actually exists.” ployees’ safety. beyond every stage of ignorance,” parliament Mohammed Hayef al- Khamis later described the issue Kuwait City Youssoufi denied rumours that Hussinan wrote. “I don’t have Mutairi unleashed a wave of con- as “more dangerous than liquor state authorities forced the com- words to describe the stage we’re demnation about the 3D models stores because it revives the issue he recent appearance of pany to withdraw the figures. He in now.” through his Twitter account. “The of idols, which may prompt some 3D-printed models of hu- said the company formally asked Using the same hashtag, Arwa manufacturing of these statues people to make idols for their chil- man figures on the market its parent company to bring in new al-Waqyan tweeted: “The machine and figurines must be forbidden, dren. Therefore, the shop must be T in Kuwait has stirred a huge non-human figures made using the prints a model of your body, not of as they have invaded the Ara- closed.” controversy among jurists, preach- same technology. Al-Lat or al-‘Uzza. Please spare us bian Peninsula. Complacency has Former Kuwaiti Minister of Jus- ers, scholars, politicians and activ- He said a meeting with the Min- these futile good-for-nothing fat- reached a point where temples tice and Endowments Nayef al- ists. istry of Commerce took place after was.” have been established in some Ajmi, also posting on Twitter, said: Reports on social media said a a complaint against the company Bashar al-Sayegh, secretary-gen- Gulf states,” he tweeted. “Making statues using modern shop in Kuwait was manufacturing and that the issue stems from a de- eral of the liberal National Demo- technology is haram according to human statues and figurines. The sire to engage in “political bargain- cratic Alliance, said: “Conjuring up sharia. It should only be used with- shop, the reports claimed, was us- ing.” and exploiting fatwas to confiscate Some people said they in the limits of sharia, such as mak- ing advanced technology to print Youssoufi explained that 3D- public and private freedoms and to were puzzled at the ing educational models for medi- 3D models of anyone who wanted printing technology has been on pursue political and electoral gain campaign against the cal schools or children’s games.” to pay for them to be kept as keep- the market for nearly three years is unfortunate.” figurines and how they Ajami said also that “the figu- sakes. but Doob technology is more pre- Sayegh described what happened were described as idols. rines should not be described as Critics considered the figurines cise and has unique size options. as “religious terrorism in which ex- idols, because statues are classi- to be idols and said their manufac- It is used in medicine and architec- communication and threats were fied as idols only if they are wor- ture should be banned. Activists ture, as well as for entertainment used as weapons” and warned of “In Kuwait, there is a shop ex- shipped.” labelled such criticism as attempts and souvenirs. “the seriousness of issuing such hibiting and selling figurine cop- “As for the image, it is said to to suppress freedom and creativity. Some people said they were puz- arbitrary fatwas and interpreting ies of human beings. These are be a statue and it is not said to be The management of the com- zled at the campaign against the them according to political events.” vile happenings in the land of an idol. Needless to say that stat- pany making the models withdrew figurines and how they were de- The head of the political bureau monotheism, in which idols were ues are an excuse for the greater the 3D-printed human models scribed as idols. Under the hashtag of the liberal Kuwait Democratic destroyed and forbidden. Their shirk [idolatry] and this is the most from its stores, despite the Kuwaiti “Idols_in_Kuwait,” activist Lolwa Forum, Ali al-Aoudhi, criticised return is a sign of the coming of prominent reason for their prohibi- Ministry of Commerce and Indus- al-Hussinan tweeted: “A shop in the description of the models as the apocalypse and the minister of tion,” Ajami added. try saying the company had not Kuwait prints for you and your “idols.” He stated that “what is hap- commerce must ban them.” broken any laws. family figurines as souvenirs… and pening is nothing but contempt for Salafist preacher Othman al- Mohamad Abdul Ghaffar is a Al-Jarida newspaper quoted the sheikhs of religion say the stat- people’s minds and a new attempt Khamis was asked on his Twitter Kuwaiti journalist. Mohammed al-Youssoufi, a board ues lead to shirk [idolatry] and that to suppress freedoms and creativ- account about the figurines and member of the 3D-printing com- people later will start worshipping ity under the pretext of religion.” replied: “What this shop is doing is (Anadolu news agency) September 23, 2018 23 Culture Beirut’s poetry slams: A revolution in free verse

Khadija Hamouchi are reclaiming poetry to speak their concerns and to shift the social conversation,” she said. Beirut Sidewalk poets cover sensitive subjects, such as mental health, n one of Beirut’s busiest cafes, sexuality, feminism and politics. 50 young people gather every At each session, slammers read Wednesday to listen to peers and respond to their fellow poets I who describe themselves as in a spirit of camaraderie. No one poets. is regarded a superstar; everyone The event, called Sidewalk, fea- gets a hearing. The slams are con- tures poetry in Arabic and Eng- sidered a safe space to share expe- lish and youthful writers, many of riences. them not yet 16 years old and still Carmina Khairallah, a poet and at school. The poets read energeti- member of the Sidewalk Organisa- cally, in open-mic-style; the audi- tion Committee, said: “The poets ence listens intently, responding as come to share frustration and sad- needed. ness. They search for compassion Clearly, poetry is not dead in the and empathy. This ‘me-too’ feeling digital era. These poets, from Syria, is cathartic. It helps many young Lebanon and the United Kingdom, people find new hope.” are part of a new wave in the city — Lynn, a 20-year-old psychology poetry as performance. and politics student, who started performing at Sidewalk two years Sidewalk poets cover ago, agreed that the sessions are sensitive subjects, such as uplifting. “I write about soci- mental health, sexuality, ety and the system not giving you space to think and feel,” she said. feminism and politics. “I do not only want to think about what to eat and where to go. I want The Wednesday poetry slams to think about my identity and my are increasing in popularity across transitions in life.” Beirut and Sidewalk recently or- Many slammers say they are on ganised a regional poetry slam. The a journey of self-discovery. The competition was put together in poets refuse to consider many of collaboration with Roundhouse, a the most basic rules of poetry, such British performing arts and concert as rhyming, syllabic rhythm and In open-mic-style. Poet Mohammad Rashid performs on stage at a Sidewalk event in Beirut. (Sidewalk) venue. The winner will represent form. The poems have no particu- the Middle East at the World Poetry lar structure. The only thing that Slam in Paris in 2019. matters is that it strike a chord with work on voice and body language spotlight on hidden talent,” he said. Even so, the Sidewalk committee Sidewalk organisers said they the audience. and learn how to command the “It will provide encouragement to said it plans to connect with other hope there will be a regional slam “Our performers are already ex- scene and the moment. poets who doubt their writings or Arab countries to share its experi- every year. Two years ago, a re- cellent at their craft,” said Maysan Sidewalk expects to start to are afraid to take the stage.” ence of an unexpected success sto- gional poetry competition was or- Nasser, the driving force behind spawn a clone of itself in southern No one is sure the slams will be ry in free verse. ganised by Roundhouse but there the competition. Nasser won the Lebanon. In Saida, 40km south of a success anywhere other than in was no follow-up in 2017. 2016 regional poetry competition Beirut, a new community of poets Beirut. “If I did not live in Beirut, I Khadija Hamouchi is a Belgian- Lisa Luxx, an award-winning and wants to give other young po- will be encouraged to write and would not have been able to write,” Moroccan social entrepreneur and British-Syrian poet and a judge at ets the chance to succeed. perform. Mohammad Rashid, a Lynn said. “The intensity of this founder of SEJAAL, an initiative the regional slam, said Sidewalk is The Sidewalk committee runs poet in Saida, said he was delight- place nurtures this creative pro- that is building an app for young a sign of the times. “Young people workshops that help performers ed. “We are hoping this will put a cess.” people. Viewpoint Music scene in Palestinian territories echoes resistance to occupation

his summer has seen more important to me, especially to thousands of viewers. past. By creating cultural events a series of wins for the after the government’s recent hu- The event itself was a powerful in Palestine, we participate in Boycott, Divestment, man rights atrocities.” statement, grabbing the atten- writing contemporary Palestinian Nadine Sayegh Sanction (BDS) Move- More interesting was action tion of non-traditional audiences. history, making new memories, ment, particularly in taking place on the grass-roots The Boiler Room crew, having proving we are alive, active and the music scene. In level. In June, international music entered the Palestinian territo- that our culture is an ongoing, TSeptember, 15 international musi- platform Boiler Room had its first ries through Israel, experienced contemporary process.” cians, including US singer Lana Boiler Room Palestine featuring occupation first hand. Delays and If music is emerging as an act Del Rey, pulled out of the Meteor a range of local artists. One of invasive searches are the norm of resistance in the Palestinian Festival in Tel Aviv. the group’s Instagram posts said: for Palestinians and Palestinian territories, it is only a natural Del Rey said, because she could “Living in the Ramallah bub- supporters attempting to access progression for a breakthrough not perform in the Palestinian ble with limited transportation the territories. for the Palestinian underground territories, she would pull out of outside of the city, due to military This experience gives weight to behave as a sharp attack on the the Israeli show. checkpoints, music is a way to to arguments Palestinians make injustice continuously faced in US electronic musician escape. The tight collective of in terms of ease of movement. the occupied territories, to Pales- Shlohmo, pulling out of the friends play in underground par- Music producer Al Nather said tinians in Gaza and Palestinians same festival, said: “Sorry to the ties, at bars and hang out in their the Boiler Room crew “lived the in Israel. fans I’m letting down and to the home studios.” occupation.” festival staff but supporting the This action raised awareness of They, too, witnessed BDS oppressed through my absence is the conditions of the occupation first hand with some local crew members refusing to receive The growing concern payments through Israeli bank on the international accounts. The team requested cash or cheque and did not wish music scene is for Israeli organisations to profit pushing BDS wins from this Palestinian cultural milestone. forward. The event was important be- cause “it gave body and shape to relationship between the artists By defying spatial and social re- of Ramallah and Haifa, which is a strictions Israelis impose on these big win,” Nather said. artists, they provide hope and in- This bypasses restrictions Israel spiration to their audiences. With put on Palestinians, geographical- lyrics attacking the occupiers, the ly separating them wherever pos- occupying forces and even the sible. Emphasising that the artists Palestinian Authority, they offer a came from Palestinian territories possible alternative. The grow- as well as Israeli areas resisting ing concern on the international the effort to break the spirit of the music scene is pushing these BDS Palestinian people, the show of wins forward. unity between Ramallah, Haifa To assist this music movement, and Jerusalem reminded interna- it would be fundamental to see tional audiences that Palestinians children in the Arab world, so fix- remain united. ated on Western media, to inves- SAMA’, a techno DJ also on the tigate what local talent offers and show’s roster, said: “The Israeli what ways those artists can be narrative suggests their pres- supported and show their talent ence in Palestine thousands of and the battles they face. years ago justifies their current occupation. In other words, they Nadine Sayegh is a freelance have constructed a false sense of journalist based between Dubai Act of resistance. A Palestinian band performs a concert during clashes near the border with Israel, legitimacy, built around a recon- and Beirut, focusing on society, last February. (AFP) structed, fantasised and ancient culture and regional politics. 24 September 23, 2018 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

A view of the Punic Port in Carthage. (Le Lemon Tour)

Leisurely cycling Agenda

El Gouna: through Carthage’s Through September 28 El Gouna, on the Egyptian Red Sea coast, will host the second El 668-year history Gouna Film Festival. A diverse selection of films is scheduled. The programme includes docu- Omar el-Huni Planchenault in 2016 — determined mentary, narrative and short that the demand for guided tours film competitions in addition to was not being met. the Audience Award. Tunis “Why not start bike tours of ar- chaeological sites?” Corneil said of Beirut: hile gazing over the the inspiration behind the guided Through December 27 Carthaginian ruins, tour service. They also wanted to Zied Gaaloul looked at show that “small projects can equal Events associated with Sursock Museum Late Nights occur me. “Over a 668-year big results.” W noon-9pm each Thursday at history, Carthage began and ended The company is self-funded and the Sursock Museum in Beirut. in roaring flames,” he said. relies on 50 locally made bicycles. Particpants rest near the Punic Port in Carthage. (Le Lemon Tour) I’d spent the afternoon cycling Le Lemon Tour starts with a trek Events include exhibitions, col- around the various archaeologi- to the Acropolium of Carthage, also lection displays, late-night talks, cal sites of the old Carthage. We’d known as Saint Louis Cathedral, religious burial site for children, architecture. In addition to the performances and screenings. arrived at the Tophet of Carthage built in honour of the French King which doubles as a shrine to the company’s regular guided tours, it and explored the ancient children’s Louis IX. It then takes cyclers to the chief deities of Carthaginians. hosts two or three events a week Dubai: burial site that served as a temple baths of Antonius, one of the third Throughout the tour, partici- during which up to 20 guests are Through December 31 taken on different routes around to the ancient gods Baal and Tanit. largest thermae built by the Roman pants are educated on the history “La Perle” features 65 artists old and modern Carthage. The tour, conducted by Le Lem- Empire, as well as a prominent of Carthage, from its founding by from 23 countries performing Le Lemon Tour’s operators said on Tour, a cycling tour company meeting site. Dido (Elissa), the ancient city’s first amazing stunts and aerial antics they hoped to “consolidate (their) established at the beginning of The third site is the Punic Port, queen and her death in the pyre, to above an on-stage pool filled Carthage Salambo branch, see the year, went through some of which served as a key military Scipio Aemilianus’s victory in the with 2.7 million litres of water in what works and then expand to Carthage’s most famous archaeo- port. Designed as a narrow channel Third Punic War and subsequent a state-of-the-art, custom-built other historical and archaeologi- logical sites, such as the Punic Port linking the northern circular naval burning of Carthage, an event that theatre. The show takes place at cal areas.” Corneil said there is sig- and the Baths of Antonius. port to the southern oblique mer- “brought him to tears after think- Al Habtoor City. Le Lemon Tour was the brain- chant port, the port hid the mili- ing the same could happen to nificant potential to expand cycling child of Celia Corneil, Nicolas tary port from the outside, while Rome,” Gaaloul recounted. tours to other archaeological sites Amman: Planchenault and Markus Breit- allowing the Carthaginians to see The tour’s guests are a mix of in Tunisia. September 26-October 6 weg, who after arriving in Tunisia towards the sea. Tunisians, expats and tourists in- Tours can be booked in advance — Breitweg in 2014 and Corneil and The tour ends on the Tophet, a terested in cycling, history and throughout the week, with rates The 18th Amman International varying based on the size, length Book Fair welcomes 500 printing and type of tour. houses from various countries. Groups of four and fewer can Egypt will be the guest of hon- purchase a half-day guided tour for our for this year’s fair. about $5.50 a person in addition to a $25 group charge. A full-day tour Cairo: costs $9 a person and a $55 group September 27-29 charge. Groups of five or more pay an $11 charge per person for a half- CairoComix Festival, produced day tour and $18 charge per person at the American University in for a full-day tour, with no group Cairo’s Tahrir Square Campus, charge. brings together artists, publish- Self-guided tours, with a map ers, speakers and fans of comics and information booklet, cost less: from around the world for an $5.50 for half the day and $9 for the extensive programme of exhibi- full day. tions, talks and workshops about Bike rentals and access to a hel- the comics industry. met, lock and basket are provided at no cost and one $4 entry fee pro- Dubai: vides access to all sites featured on October 1-2 the tour. For cycling enthusiasts, history Dubai Opera will host Latin sing- buffs or those simply looking for er Julio Iglesias for two concerts a unique educational activity, Le as part of his 50th anniversary Lemon Tour provides an engag- world tour. ing way to discover the area of Carthage and learn about its his- We welcome submissions of tory. calendar items related to cultural events of interest to Omar el-Huni is a contributor travellers in the Middle East to The Arab Weekly on and North Africa. environmental issues. He studies environmental science at the Please send tips to: A view of an archaeological site in Carthage. (Le Lemon Tour) University of Reading. [email protected]