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Automotive Quarterly – August 2019

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Automotive Quarterly – August 2019 Automotive Automotive Quarterly – August 2019 Inhalt Kapitalmärkte und Umsätze .............................................1 Absatz ..................................................................................2 Margen und Durchschnittspreise .....................................3 Effizienz: F&E und Mitarbeiterproduktivität ..................4 Effizienz: Vorräte ...............................................................5 M&A-Transaktionen – Automobilmarkt .........................6 Seite 7 Sonderthema Effektive BEV-Einführung in Europa – jenseits der Hauptmärkte Kapitalmärkte und Umsätze 1. Auto-Werte unter Vorjahr, aber wieder im Abbildung 1. Aktienindex-Entwicklung Aufschwung [100% = Indexstand zum Berichtsstart 30.06.2017] 150 Seit dem Tiefpunkt im vierten Quartal 2018 sind sowohl die STOXX® Europe 600 STOXX® Global 3000 140 STOXX® Europe 600 STOXX® Global 3000 allgemeinwirtschaftlichen Indizes als auch die Automobilwerte 130 Automobiles & Parts Automobiles & Parts wieder im Erholungsmodus. Auch im Vergleich zum ersten Quar- Abbildung120 1. Aktienindex-Entwicklung tal 2019 sind allgemeine Werte in Europa (+3,5%) und weltweit [100% = Indexstand zum Berichtsstart 30.06.2017] 110 (+2,6%) im Wachsen begriffen. Gleiches gilt für die automobilen 150 100 STOXX® Europe 600 STOXX® Global 3000 Indizes, doch notieren diese weiterhin unter dem Vorjahresquar- 140 STOXX® Europe 600 STOXX® Global 3000 90 tal: Der STOXX Global 3000 Auto notiert 1,6% über dem Q1 130 Automobiles & Parts Automobiles & Parts aber 7,6% unter dem Q2/2018, der STOXX Europe 600 Auto 80 120 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 5,1% notiert über dem Q1 aber 6,5% unter dem Q2/2018. 1102017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 Trotz leichter Erholung der Automobilindizes innerhalb der letzten Quelle:100 Arthur D. Little, STOXX®; jeweils Werte zum Quartalsende drei Quartale scheint die Stimmung weiter getrübt. Auch melden 90 fast alle Hersteller Belastungen durch Handelsstreit, Brexit und Abbildung80 2. Quartalsumsatz Pkw-Sparten [in Mrd. EUR] weiterhin hoher Investitionen in neue Mobilitätstechnologien. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 602017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 Nicht zuletzt verunsichern auch die Einbrüche im chinesischen Toyota Quelle:50 Arthur D. Little, STOXX®; jeweils Werte zum Quartalsende Automobilmarkt. Volkswagen 40 Abbildung 2. Quartalsumsatz Pkw-Sparten [in Mrd. EUR]Ford 30 Hyundai-Kia 2. Umsätze über Vorjahresniveau, Volkswagen holt auf GM 60 Daimler BMW Insgesamt steigen die Umsätze der Hersteller deutlich (+5%) 20 Toyota über das Vorjahresniveau, vor allem Volkswagen fällt hier auf. 50 Audi 10 Volkswagen Einerseits berichtet der Konzern solides Wachstum der Umsätze 40 0 Ford im Bereich PKW, andererseits rechnet Volkswagen die leich- 30 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Hyundai -Kia 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 201GM9 ten Nutzfahrzeuge jetzt dem Bereich PKW zu, nicht mehr den Daimler 20 BMW Nutzfahrzeugen. Bereinigt ergibt sich ein um 13% gewachsener Audi Daimler GM1) Toyota3) Audi Umsatz, der Abstand zum Spitzenreiter Toyota (+9,5%) verrin- 10 BMW Ford1) Hyundai-KIA2) Volkswagen3) gert sich dadurch auf 8,7 Mrd. Euro. Quelle:0 Arthur D. Little, Unternehmensdaten; Wechselkurse zum jeweiligen Quartalsende; Equity Q2konsolidierte Q3 JointQ4-Ventures Q1 in ChinaQ 2sind in Q3den PkwQ4-Umsätzen Q1 nicht enthalten;Q2 1) inkl. Nutzfahrzeuge; 2) Konzernumsatz; 3) inkl. aller Konzernmarken (Pkw) und VW Auch Hyundai-KIA kann den automobilen Umsatz um 6% stei- Nutzfahrzeuge2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 gern, während Audi von einer „Entkonsolidierung von Mehrmar- Audi Daimler GM1) Toyota3) ken-Vertriebsgesellschaften“ im Konzern nicht profitiert (-5,8%) BMW Ford1) Hyundai-KIA2) Volkswagen3) und auch Daimler leichte Umsatzeinbußen verzeichnet (-1,2%). Quelle: Arthur D. Little, Unternehmensdaten; Wechselkurse zum jeweiligen Quartalsende; Ford hingegen kann trotz des schlechten China-Geschäfts etwas Equity konsolidierte Joint-Ventures in China sind in den Pkw-Umsätzen nicht enthalten; 1) inkl. Nutzfahrzeuge; 2) Konzernumsatz; 3) inkl. aller Konzernmarken (Pkw) und VW zulegen (+2,1%). Nutzfahrzeuge Automotive Absatz 3. Absätze stagnieren oder fallen entgegen der Abbildung 3. Absatz Pkw deutscher OEMs und Ford nach Umsätze Regionen, indiziert [100% = Stückzahl aus Q2/2017]; ab Q3/2019 durchgehend Prognosen Der Rückgang der weltweiten PKW-Absätze hat sich stabilisiert. Trotzdem liegen alle Schlüsselmärkte maximal auf dem Niveau Europa 120 VW Marke des Q2/2017. Nordamerika setzt gar 2% weniger ab als vor zwei Porsche 100 VW Konzern Jahren. Während die Sättigung der westlichen Märkte erwartet Ford 80 BMW wurde, verunsichert der zwischenzeitliche Rückgang (-6,2%) Gesamtmarkt 60 Daimler Audi im chinesischen Markt. Auffallend ist auch, dass die Absätze 40 Opel sich gegenläufig zum Umsatz entwickeln: Hier sind vor allem 20 Veränderungen im Fahrzeug-Mix und der Preisdurchsetzung Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19e Q2/20e verantwortlich. Nicht in der Grafik zu 2. enthalten sind hingegen Nordamerika 120 höhere Umsätze in den Finanz-dienstleistungssparten. Porsche VW Marke BMW 100 VW Konzern In Europa liegt der Markt 5,5% unter dem Vorjahresniveau, Daimler Audi genau auf dem Niveau von 2017. Außer Daimler (+2%) ver- 80 Gesamtmarkt Ford lieren alle betrachteten Hersteller im Vergleich zum Vorjahr an Absatz. Mit Ausnahme von BMW (-4,2%) und Ford (-4,8%) 60 Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19e Q2/20e verlieren die meisten auch mehr Absatz als der Gesamtmarkt und somit Marktanteile. Vor allem der britische Markt leidet 200 China unter dem Gespenst des ungeregelten Brexits – symptomatisch Porsche 150 BMW dafür fallen die Absätze von Opel/Vauxhall (7,6%) massiv, die Daimler Audi Prognosen der IHS-Datenbank gehen von künftig noch höheren 100 VW Konzern Gesamtmarkt VW Marke Einbußen aus. 50 Ford 0 In Nordamerika liegen die Absätze 3,2% unter dem Niveau des Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19e Q2/20e Q2 2018. Während Volkswagen in der Marke (+8%) und im Konzern (+2,2%) deutlich zulegen kann, verlieren die anderen 130 Rest der Welt deutschen Hersteller Anteile. Vor allem Audi (-7,2%) und Daim- Audi 120 VW Konzern Porsche ler (-5,2%) verkaufen weniger Fahrzeuge als im Vorjahresquartal. 110 VW Marke Gesamtmarkt In Stuttgart machen sich Modellwechsel bei den SUVs negativ 100 Daimler BMW bemerkbar, Neuauflagen sollen im Lauf des Jahres aber für 90 Schwung sorgen. Auch Ford (-5,1%) erlebt in einem von neuen 80 Ford 70 Markteinführungen geprägten Quartal einen Volumen-Rückgang Q2/17 Q4/17 Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19e Q2/20e im Heimatmarkt, der aber durchaus zur Margenstrategie passt. Dieser Trend setzt sich auch in der Prognose fort. Ab dem Q3 Audi Ford Volkswagen Konzern BMW Opel Volkswagen Marke wird auch für alle deutschen Hersteller wieder eine Steigerung Daimler Porsche Gesamtmarkt über den dortigen Gesamtmarkt erwartet. Quelle: Arthur D. Little, IHS Weiterhin große Unsicherheiten erlebt der chinesische Markt. Trotz fiskalischer Stütze auf der Nachfrageseite trifft der Handels- streit den chinesischen Automarkt voll (-6,2%). Ford scheint die Absätze ungefähr auf der Hälfte des Werts aus dem Q2/2017 zu stabilisieren und liegt 22,2% unter dem Vorjahresquartal – ob die neuen Einführungen der Ford Kuga, Edge, Taurus und Active Wirkung zeigen, bleibt abzuwarten. Entgegen dem Marktum- Auch im Rest der Welt schrumpft der Gesamtmarkt mit 5%. feld wachsen Porsche (+40,9%) und BMW (+20,5%) rasant Bei allen betrachteten Herstellern außer Porsche (+3,7%) gilt – der stärkste Treiber der Münchener sind die X-Modelle mit dies ebenfalls im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Den größten Absatz- Wachstumsraten um die 50%. Volkswagen hingegen wird vom schwund erlebt dennoch wiederum Ford (-14%). Die Volumen- Rückgang getroffen und die Absätze stagnieren in Marke und modelle werden 2019/2020 neu aufgesetzt. Konzern auf dem Vorjahresniveau. 2 Automotive Margen und Durchschnittspreise 4. Mittlere operative Marge fällt um 0,3 Abbildung 4. Quartalsweise EBIT-Marge der Pkw-Sparte Prozentpunkte [in % vom Umsatz] 12 Insgesamt liegen die EBIT-Margen der betrachteten Hersteller 10 Toyota 8 Volkswagen 0,3 Prozentpunkte (PP) unter dem Vorjahresniveau von 6,4% in Audi 6 GM BMW den PKW-Sparten. Nach BMW (-2,2 PP) im Vorquartal erwischt 4 Hyundai-Kia es nun Daimler (-11,4 PP): Aufgrund von erwarteten Diesel- 2 Ford Bußgeldern (1 Mrd. Euro) sowie 760 Mio. Euro für einen Rückruf Abbildung0 4. Quartalsweise EBIT-Marge der Pkw-Sparte Daimler von Takata-Airbags fällt die Marge weit ins Minus. BMW kann [in %-2 vom Umsatz] 12-4 hingegen wieder eine operative Marge von 6,5% im Automobil- Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 10 Toyota 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 geschäft erwirtschaften. 8 Volkswagen Audi Audi1) Daimler GM1,2) Toyota1) 6 GM BMW Auf Jahressicht kann GM (+3,8 PP) am meisten zulegen. In der BMW4 Ford Hyundai-KIA1,3) Volkswagen1,4) Hyundai-Kia Heimat profitieren die Detroiter dabei von starken SUV Ver- Quelle:2 Arthur D. Little, Unternehmensdaten; Ergebnisse At-Equity konsolidierterFord Joint- Ventures in China sind nicht enthalten 1) operatives Ergebnis statt EBIT; 2) inkl. 0 käufen (Chevy Silverado und GMC Sierra), in China kommt die Nutzfahrzeuge; 3) Umsatz und Ergebnis im Konzern; 4) inkl. aller Konzernmarken (Pkw) Daimler Modelloffensive 2019 langsam zum Tragen. Ford (+0,1 PP) hat -2 -4 zwar im Heimatgeschäft eine EBIT-Marge von 7,1%, muss damit Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 aber Verluste in Übersee ausgleichen, welche in Europa und 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 1) 1,2) 1)
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