'Libya Is Full of Cruelty'
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Countering Violent Extremism Scientific Methods & Strategies
TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT AND AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPER IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD Countering Violent Extremism Scientific Methods & Strategies Revised & Updated1 July 2015 The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated. Editor: Laurie Fenstermacher (Air Force Research Laboratory) Contributing Authors: Lt. Gen John N. “Jack” Shanahan, Ziad Alahdad, Latéfa Belarouci, Cheryl Benard, Kurt Braddock, William Casebeer, Steve Corman, Paul Davis, Karl DeRouen, Diane DiEuliis, Evelyn Early, Alexis Everington, Dipak Gupta, Tawfik Hamid, John Horgan, Qamar-ul Huda, Eric Larson, Anthony Lemieux, Robert Nill, Paulina Pospieszna, Tom Rieger, Marc Sageman, Anne Speckhard, Troy Thomas, Lorenzo Vidino Integration Editors: Sarah Canna & George Popp NSI, Inc. [email protected] 1 Originally Published September 2011 1 NOTE FROM THE EDITOR Why are we reissuing the paper collection, “Countering Violent Extremism: Scientific Methods and Strategies”? The answer is simple. Five years later, violent extremism is still an issue. In September 2014, President Obama spoke at the United Nations, calling on member nations to do more to address violent extremism. This was followed by a three-day summit in February 2015 to bring together local, federal, and international leaders to discuss approaches to counter violent extremism. The wisdom contained in this paper collection is more relevant than ever. I encourage everyone to read it, again or for the first time, in whole or in part. 2 CONTENTS Foreword (Lt. Gen. John N. “Jack” Shanahan) ............................................................................................................... 1 Preface (Diane DiEuiliis) ............................................................................................................................................... -
Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: a Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Pa
Department of Political Science Master’s Degree in International Relations - Global Studies Chair of Geopolitical Scenarios and Political Risk Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: A Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Paris Attacks and the Exceptionality of the Italian Case SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Prof. Giuseppe Scognamiglio Antonella Camerino Student ID: 639472 CO-SUPERVISOR Prof. Lorenzo Castellani ACCADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………5 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..6 CHAPTER 1: Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework 1.1 – The Intelligence Cycle………………………………………………………………….11 1.2 – Intelligence Failures…………………………………………………………………….19 1.3 – The Strategic Surprises and Surprises Attacks………………………………………….24 1.4 – The Black Swan Theory………………………………………………………………...30 CHAPTER 2: The Case of USA: The Attacks of the 9/11 2.1 – The US Intelligence Community……………………………………………………….35 2.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: Al-Qaeda………………………………………..43 2.3 – The 9/11 Attacks: Facts, Causes and Consequences……………………………………52 2.4 – The US Involvement in the Middle East: The War on Terror………………………….61 CHAPTER 3: The Case of France: The Paris Attacks of November 13 3.1 – The French Intelligence Community…………………………………………………...73 3.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: The Islamic State………………………………..80 3.3 – The Paris Attacks of November 13: Facts, Causes and Consequences………………...90 3.4 – The French Involvement in the Middle East: Opération Chammal…………………….98 -
Libya: Security, Economic Development and Political Reform Mattia Toaldo
Libya: security, economic development and political reform Mattia Toaldo Paper commissioned by the Human Security Study Group SiT/WP/04/16 Mattia Toaldo is policy fellow in the MENA programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he focuses on Libya, Israel/Palestine and migrations. He earned his PhD in history of international relations from Roma Tre University in 2008. Contact Mattia Toaldo [email protected] Security in Transition February 2016, London 2 Abstract Given Libya's everyday anarchy and violence, there is a strong temptation to take a “security first” approach. Yet this would repeat a principal weakness of European policy between the fall of Gaddafi and the start of the civil war. After 2011, European policy in Libya was based upon heavy doses of “local ownership”, in reaction to the failures of the top-down approach in Iraq. This ran up against the limited capacity of the Libyan government to assess its needs, let alone to devise overall policies for which to request international assistance. Past failures in this sense should not lead Europeans to revert to a top-down approach, however, which would probably fail here as it did in Iraq. But it is up to the Europeans to get the agenda right, so that their discussions with a future Libyan national unity government focus on the right priorities. The paper examines these challenges in Libya and elaborates an alternative approach for European policy. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Western responsibilities and regional dynamics 3. Next step for Europe: Fighting ISIS and migrants? 4. -
State of the World's Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 2016
State of the World’s Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 2016 Events of 2015 Focus on culture and heritage State of theWorld’s Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 20161 Events of 2015 Front cover: Cholitas, indigenous Bolivian Focus on culture and heritage women, dancing on the streets of La Paz as part of a fiesta celebrating Mother’s Day. REUTERS/ David Mercado. Inside front cover: Street theatre performance in the Dominican Republic. From 2013 to 2016 MRG ran a street theatre programme to challenge discrimination against Dominicans of Haitian Descent in the Acknowledgements Dominican Republic. MUDHA. Minority Rights Group International (MRG) Inside back cover: Maasai community members in gratefully acknowledges the support of all Kenya. MRG. organizations and individuals who gave financial and other assistance to this publication, including the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. © Minority Rights Group International, July 2016. All rights reserved. Material from this publication may be reproduced for teaching or other non-commercial purposes. No part of it may be reproduced in any form for Support our work commercial purposes without the prior express Donate at www.minorityrights.org/donate permission of the copyright holders. MRG relies on the generous support of institutions and individuals to help us secure the rights of For further information please contact MRG. A CIP minorities and indigenous peoples around the catalogue record of this publication is available from world. All donations received contribute directly to the British Library. our projects with minorities and indigenous peoples. ISBN 978-1-907919-80-0 Subscribe to our publications at State of www.minorityrights.org/publications Published: July 2016 Another valuable way to support us is to subscribe Lead reviewer: Carl Soderbergh to our publications, which offer a compelling theWorld’s Production: Jasmin Qureshi analysis of minority and indigenous issues and Copy editing: Sophie Richmond original research. -
State of the World's Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 2016 (MRG)
State of the World’s Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 2016 Events of 2015 Focus on culture and heritage State of theWorld’s Minorities and Indigenous Peoples 20161 Events of 2015 Front cover: Cholitas, indigenous Bolivian Focus on culture and heritage women, dancing on the streets of La Paz as part of a fiesta celebrating Mother’s Day. REUTERS/ David Mercado. Inside front cover: Street theatre performance in the Dominican Republic. From 2013 to 2016 MRG ran a street theatre programme to challenge discrimination against Dominicans of Haitian Descent in the Acknowledgements Dominican Republic. MUDHA. Minority Rights Group International (MRG) Inside back cover: Maasai community members in gratefully acknowledges the support of all Kenya. MRG. organizations and individuals who gave financial and other assistance to this publication, including the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. © Minority Rights Group International, July 2016. All rights reserved. Material from this publication may be reproduced for teaching or other non-commercial purposes. No part of it may be reproduced in any form for Support our work commercial purposes without the prior express Donate at www.minorityrights.org/donate permission of the copyright holders. MRG relies on the generous support of institutions and individuals to help us secure the rights of For further information please contact MRG. A CIP minorities and indigenous peoples around the catalogue record of this publication is available from world. All donations received contribute directly to the British Library. our projects with minorities and indigenous peoples. ISBN 978-1-907919-80-0 Subscribe to our publications at State of www.minorityrights.org/publications Published: July 2016 Another valuable way to support us is to subscribe Lead reviewer: Carl Soderbergh to our publications, which offer a compelling Production: Jasmin Qureshi analysis of minority and indigenous issues and theWorld’s Copy editing: Sophie Richmond original research. -
Egypt 2015 International Religious Freedom Report
EGYPT 2015 INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM REPORT Executive Summary The constitution describes freedom of belief as “absolute” but only provides adherents of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism the right to practice their religion freely and to build houses of worship. The government does not recognize conversion from Islam by citizens born Muslim to any other religion and imposes legal penalties on Muslim-born citizens who convert. While there is no legal ban on efforts to proselytize Muslims, the government uses the penal code’s prohibition of “denigrating religions” to prosecute those who proselytize publicly, often adopting an overly expansive interpretation of denigration, according to human rights groups. The constitution specifies Islam as the state religion and the principles of sharia as the primary source of legislation. It requires parliament to pass a law on the construction and renovation of Christian churches and provides for the establishment of an antidiscrimination commission, both of which had yet to be completed by year’s end. The government failed to respond to or prevent sectarian violence in some cases, in particular outside of major cities, according to rights advocates. Government officials frequently participated in informal “reconciliation sessions” to address incidents of sectarian violence and tension, saying such sessions prevented further violence. Such sessions, however, regularly led to outcomes unfavorable to minority parties, and precluded recourse to the judicial system in most cases, according to human rights groups. Some religious minorities reported an increase in harassment by government entities as compared with last year. Some government entities used anti-Shia, anti-Bahai, and anti- atheist rhetoric, and the government regularly failed to condemn anti-Semitic commentary. -
Libya: Security, Economic Development and Political Reform Mattia Toaldo
Libya: security, economic development and political reform Mattia Toaldo Paper commissioned by the Human Security Study Group SiT/WP/04/16 Mattia Toaldo is policy fellow in the MENA programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he focuses on Libya, Israel/Palestine and migrations. He earned his PhD in history of international relations from Roma Tre University in 2008. Contact Mattia Toaldo [email protected] Security in Transition February 2016, London 2 Abstract Given Libya's everyday anarchy and violence, there is a strong temptation to take a “security first” approach. Yet this would repeat a principal weakness of European policy between the fall of Gaddafi and the start of the civil war. After 2011, European policy in Libya was based upon heavy doses of “local ownership”, in reaction to the failures of the top-down approach in Iraq. This ran up against the limited capacity of the Libyan government to assess its needs, let alone to devise overall policies for which to request international assistance. Past failures in this sense should not lead Europeans to revert to a top-down approach, however, which would probably fail here as it did in Iraq. But it is up to the Europeans to get the agenda right, so that their discussions with a future Libyan national unity government focus on the right priorities. The paper eXamines these challenges in Libya and elaborates an alternative approach for European policy. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Western responsibilities and regional dynamics 3. NeXt step for Europe: Fighting ISIS and migrants? 4. -
The Middle East, Israel and Western Strategic Interests
The Middle East, Israel and Western Strategic Interests Shmuel Bar August 2016 Strategic Outlook Series Friends of Israel Initiative The Middle East, Israel and Western Strategic Interests Shmuel Bar August 2016 The Friends of Israel Initiative (FOII) is a global organization devoted to fighting the delegitimization of the State of Israel and to support its right to live in peace within safe and defensible borders. FOII believes that Israel is an integral and vital part of the West, a dynamic, vibrant and prosperous democracy, and as such Israel deserves to be fully accepted as a normal Western nation, and treated with fairness as any other democracy in the world. FOII was founded in 2010 as a group of global leaders, former Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers, and eminent personalities from diverse fields. In order to further its message, FOII members engage their peers in direct and frank dialogues, invite relevant people to field trips to Israel, call on expert groups to prepare reports and policy papers, disseminate analysis affecting the future of Israel, and publish opinion editorials in pertinent media outlets, among other activities. The Friends of Israel Initiative is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization and contributions to the Friends of Israel Initiative are fully tax-deductible. Copyright © 2016 by Friends of Israel Initiative All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. -
Egypt Table of Contents • Egypt Attack
Table of Contents Egypt attack: Gunman targets Coptic Christians in church and shop Behind the attack on Prince Tadros church: the sound of a bell or the absence of law? Egyptian Parliament to enact law to criminalise atheism Hundreds attacked church in Giza Teenager's murder 'aimed to intimidate Copts ahead of Christmas', says his pastor Rivalry for religious dominance in Egypt 21 churches receive long-delayed government approval to build The dangerous myths about Sufi Muslims Militants kill 305 at Sufi mosque in Egypt’s deadliest terrorist attack Church closures in Egypt: ‘We were silent when it was one, now it’s four’ Closed on Security Grounds: Sectarian tensions and attacks resulting from the construction and renovation of churches Shubra al-Kheima church cancels prayers after threats The public spectacle of a slain Coptic priest Ex-kidnapper admits ‘they get paid for every Coptic Christian girl they bring in’ Christians in Minya claim prevented from mass by authorities Police crackdown on Chinese Uyghurs in Egypt and ‘repatriation’ on Beijing’s ‘request’ Kiosk in Cairo subway offers religious edicts/fatwas to commuters Why are attacks on Egypt’s Coptic Christians getting worse? Freedom of Religion and Belief in Egypt: Official discourse vs. reality on the field Murder of fifth Copt in six weeks creating ‘state of fear and terror’ among Egypt’s Christians Four more Copts killed in ‘most aggressive campaign in history of modern Egypt’ For Egypt’s Copts, if it isn’t extremism, it’s sectarianism Coptic Christians: -
Libya: Freedom of Religion in the Land of Anarchy
Libya: Freedom of religion in the land of anarchy Yonas Dembele Open Doors International / World Watch Research 15 May 2016 [email protected] / www.od.org / www.opendoorsanalytical.org Libya: Freedom of religion in the land of anarchy Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 2. Security in Libya and the current political situation ............................................................. 1 3. The situation for Christians in Libya ...................................................................................... 4 4. Future prospects ................................................................................................................... 7 5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 9 1. Introduction It would be no exaggeration to say that nothing has drawn so much attention to the plight and persecution of Christians in the Middle East today as the shocking and dramatic execution of Christians by Islamic State (IS) militants in Libya. This paper is an attempt to provide background information concerning the context in which such atrocious acts were committed. The paper shows how the anarchic political and security condition in contemporary Libya has created a environment conducive for radical Islamic groups to persecute Christians blatantly and violently with absolute impunity. In the first part of the paper, security -
The Other Copts
The American University in Cairo School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) The Other Copts: Between Sectarianism, Nationalism and Catholic Coptic Activism in Minya A Thesis submitted to the Middle East Studies Center In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (M.A.) in Middle East Studies By Ana Carol Torres Gutiérrez Under the supervision of Dr. Sandrine Gamblin Spring 2017 The American University in Cairo School of Global Affairs and Public Policy "The Other Copts: Between Sectarianism, Nationalism and Catholic Coptic Activism in Minya” A thesis submitted by Ana Carol Torres Gutiérrez to the Middle East Studies Centre Spring 2017 In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Middle East Studies has been approved by: Dr. Sandrine Gamblin Thesis Adviser _______________________________________________ Affiliation _________________________________________________ Dr. Reem Saad Thesis Second Reader ________________________________________ Affiliation _________________________________________________ Dr. Adam Duker Thesis Third Reader _________________________________________ Affiliation _________________________________________________ Dr. Robert Mason Department Chair _____________________________ Date: ____________ Nabil Fahmy, Ambassador Dean of GAPP _____________________________ Date: ____________ ii Abstract The Other Copts: Between Sectarianism, Nationalism and Catholic Coptic Activism in Minya Ana Carol Torres Gutiérrez Under the supervision of Dr. Sandrine -
Parousia – Hegomen Fr Athanasius Iskander
THE SECOND COMING OF CHRIST Students of early church history often disagree, but there is one thing they all agree upon: the early church was consumed by earnest expectation of the imminent "Parousia" (the Lord's second coming). Some even say that this expectation was the driving force behind the fervor that the early church exhibited in it's practices. Maranatha! exclaims St. Paul at the end of his first letter to the Corinthians (1Co 16:22), and even though the letter was addressed to a Greek community, yet he includes this Aramaic word - no doubt part of the earliest Liturgy - that meant: Come Lord ! PAROUSIA The day of the Parousia - we are told by our Lord - is known only to God the Father (Mat 24:36). It comes suddenly, like lightning (Mat 24:27) and unexpectedly, like the day Noah entered into the Ark and the flood came suddenly and took the whole old world by surprise. People were eating and drinking and even getting married when the flood came. (Mat24:38,39). Hence the Lord's advice to the church: "Watch therefore, for ye know not what hour your Lord Parousia doth come." (Mat 24:42). Our Coptic Church, so faithful to the traditions of the old church, keeps this tradition alive in it's practices. The same two chapters mentioned earlier (Luke 12 and Mat 25) are appointed to be read as part of the canonical hours of the midnight prayer. Another tradition also kept by our church, is the vigil on Great Saturday (Saturday before Easter) when the whole church keeps vigil all night, praising the Lord and meditating on the Apocalypse (the Book of Revelations), which - more than any other book in the Bible - speaks to us about the Lord's Parousia (second coming).