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Huya (HUYA): Winner Takes All JAGUAR MEDIA AUG 3RD, 2020 UPDATED AUG 6TH, 2020 (see end of research note) “CHINESE TECH DEMYSTIFIED” SERIES – EPISODE 2 DouYu (DOYU) & Huya (HUYA): Winner Takes All Often referred to as China’s Twitch equivalents, DouYu and Huya are the providers of China’s biggest game livestreaming platforms. In Chinese, DouYu means “fighting fish”, while Huya is a nonsensical phrase where “Hu” means “tiger” and “ya” means “tooth”. Hence why the latter’s logo is a tiger with teeth. As a company, Huya was a late-2014 spinoff from JOYY (previously known as YY), with the latter as the new entity’s biggest shareholder. However, in 2018, Tencent acquired a 35% stake in Huya with an option to boost its control to 50.1% within the period March 8th, 2020 and March 8th, 2021. Then in April 2020, Tencent proceeded to exercise that option, effectively becoming Huya’s biggest controlling shareholder as JOYY's stake was reduced to 43% from 56%. Meanwhile, DouYu began as a livestreaming sub-segment of AcFun, a video hosting platform geared towards animation and games. But due to constant ownership issues and former employees leaving to start up their own competing businesses, a lot of spinoffs resulted from AcFun (including Bilibili, which we’ll cover another time). And not liking the direction AcFun was headed, DouYu founder Chen Shaojie decided in 2014 to sever ties with the parent company and run DouYu as its own entity. Then in 2018, Tencent invested ¥4B in DouYu in exchange for a controlling stake, on the very same day it acquired its 35% stake in Huya (see above). Today, Huya boasts ~150M MAUs while DouYu has ~165M (Twitch has ~140M in comparison), and China’s game livestreaming market has essentially become a duopoly between the two (we’ll briefly explore how this duopoly came to be). Summarizing the current state of China’s gaming industry Boasting over 650M gamers and $36.5B in annual gaming revenue at the end of 2019, China comes second only to the US in terms of gaming market size. As shown by the chart below, China used to be the largest market globally (from 2015 to 2018), but 2019 was a difficult year due to the well-documented 9-month license freeze on new games, plus other regulatory hurdles implemented by the State Administration of Press and Publication (which took control over digital games regulations in 2018). Out of all the regulations currently in place, the three that stand out the most are ISBN license requirements (every mobile game must have its own ISBN number as proof of government approval), enforced ID registrations where every player is registered with their real identification and monitored to ensure they adhere to playtime restrictions, and age-based purchase restrictions: Despite all these barriers, game approvals in China are slowly recapturing levels seen before the aforementioned license freeze, as the regulatory body works through its massive backlog. Additionally, COVID-19 has no doubt played a part in total game app downloads in China increasing 27% YoY during Q1. And according to Sensor Tower, the nation then saw 2.06B downloads in 2Q20, up from 2.02B in 2Q19. Separately, Niko Partners predicts 20 to 30 foreign games will get approval each month, on average, for a total of 240 to 360 new licenses expected this year. This will be a major improvement from only 185 foreign games approved in all of 2019. As a result, the Chinese gaming market as of June is being forecast to recover and grow at above 20% CAGR through 2025, which would imply overtaking the US to regain top spot this year or next. A brief history of game livestreaming in China, plus how Huya and DouYu became the runaway leaders. Although a subsection of Chinese gamers had already begun filming themselves while gaming in the early 2010’s, it wasn’t until around late 2013 that the trend gradually began to catch on. And even then, the growth in adoption was rather uneven due to the overreliance on the same handful of popular streamers to generate an audience. Prior to 2015, no exact statistical records were kept on game livestreaming. But TechNode estimates (don’t ask me how) there were only between 25M to 30M Chinese livestreaming gamers in 2013, followed by 45M to 50M in 2014. Assuming those numbers are accurate, that’s an almost negligible adoption considering China had a total of roughly 490M gamers during the time, per Statista. Then, in mid-2016, China’s game livestreaming culture suddenly experienced a boom due to the emergence of e-sports and competitive gaming. Such events helped to draw massive live audiences, who tuned in to watch professional gamers compete against each other for up to six-figures worth (USD) of prize money. And eventually, China’s National Development & Reform Commission saw its potential in unifying the younger crowd and began publicly backing the development of these tournaments, rolling out plans to host dozens of physical domestic and international e-sports events. These initiatives sparked a series of high-profile investments and publicity campaigns within the sector, led by JD, Alibaba, and Suning (retailer giant). And within the space of a year, game livestreaming went from being just 14% of total streaming in China to 23% in 2017. Tens of millions of new viewers began signing up to these platforms not just to watch e-sports, but also regular people live sharing their experiences and reactions while playing games in their own homes. The growing culture also resulted in many new sub- trends, like streamers using the platforms to hold regular live talking sessions, singing/dancing/jamming sessions, live travel vlogging, even educational tutoring sessions, rather than actually playing video games. And just like in North America, many career streamers have become celebrities, garnering millions of subscribers and receiving large sums of donations and gift contributions from their fans. It was during this period of acceleration when Huya and DouYu began to face growing competition, as over a hundred (not an exaggeration!) other different game livestreaming platforms began emerging to take advantage of this new craze. It quickly became a difficult environment as most of these new companies were burning large sums of cash to recruit top professional e-sports gamers/teams and famous streamers into using their platforms exclusively, in the hopes that they would drive more traffic to their sites. Essentially, the industry morphed into a rat race of who could outspend the rest. Although many of these younger platforms would quickly go bust or get acquired for various reasons (ran out of cash, inability to retain popular streamers, overpriced contracts with celebrity gamers, market saturation, etc.), barely a week would pass before the void they left was replaced by more newcomers. This overexuberance persisted into 2018, but came to an abrupt end when the State Administration of Press and Publication was given regulatory authority over digital gaming (as detailed on pages 1 and 2). The rise in regulations and sudden lack of new game approvals, combined with the best streamers and e- sports professionals slowly but collectively gravitating towards the bigger, more reputable platforms, was what spelt the end for most of Huya’s and DouYu’s smaller rivals. That said, the bigger competition remained — like Panda.TV (3rd-largest platform with 80M MAUs at the time, behind only DouYu and Huya), Longzhu, and Huomao, among others — at a time when growth of the entire gaming market pie had slowed to a snail’s pace. Thus, the cash burn intensified for the remaining survivors even as the industry consolidated significantly. But the “game-changing” moment soon arrived. Tencent at the time was facing challenges from its core gaming business mainly due to growing competition from NetEase, a company many of our Jag subscribers will be familiar with. So, they needed something fresh added to the ecosystem. Something that could help them win back younger users who were reducing usage of their flagship app WeChat in favor of “cooler” platforms like TikTok and Bilibili. Having sponsored many e-sports tournaments as part of its social network/gaming/streaming operations, Tencent’s next logical step was to invest in game livestreaming platforms. And as mentioned at the beginning, they eventually settled on DouYu and Huya. With their newfound capitalization plus subsequent capital raises from their IPOs, and under the guidance of Tencent, DouYu and Huya smartly set about investing in their in-house agencies which recruited, trained, and managed raw talent. Basically, their strategy was to put more emphasis on nurturing and building their own roster of livestreaming stars and professional gamers, rather than continuing to throw large sums of money to attract the biggest talents on the market. Meanwhile, largest competitor Panda.TV opted to continue down the path of spending big bucks to build their roster of established stars, a decision which eventually proved fatal. On March 2019, the streaming giant was forced to shut down after it was declared insolvent. The skyrocketing cash burn was the main factor, but the company was also experiencing decreased backing from VCs and investors who did not fancy their chances against Tencent. After all, the Chinese tech graveyard is known to be littered with corpses of former enterprises that had the misfortune of being in the way of Tencent-backed companies. Separately, major competitor Longzhu took a reputation hit following public backlash for repeatedly hosting illegal content on their site (a recurring problem they’ve struggled with since 2017). With reduced competition, Huya and DouYu began enjoying a strong pair of tailwinds: • Their own recruitment efforts were paying off, as their in-house developed talents were found to be more “loyal” and less costly compared to externally recruited bigshot streamers who typically don’t see themselves as beholden to any particular platform.
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