SAVING the MAIL How to Solve the Problems of the U
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100 50 G EDDES AEI Evaluative Studies 100 100 SAVING THE MAIL How to Solve the Problems of the U. S. Postal Service 50 Rick Geddes 100 Rick Geddes has produced the first intensive analysis of the U.S. Postal Service since the Postal Reorganization Act of 1970—just as the federal 100 giant faces the scrutiny of a presidential commission on its long-term SAVING viability and President Bush has announced his intention to privatize 800,000 federal jobs. THE Although the 1970 act set in motion the most extensive reorganization MAIL of a federal agency, almost no rigorous empirical assessment of the act’s effects on the Postal Service has been undertaken—until now. SAVING 100 Technological developments in communications, the author contends, How to Solve the Problems of the U. S. Postal Service 100 make postal reform inevitable. The USPS is unlikely to remain viable for long in its present form. The author explores USPS structure and performance measures, dis- counts standard arguments about postal monopolies and duties, and cites the organizational reform of similar industries and experience of other THE governments that restructured their postal service. He details a two-step reform process, including a public offering of shares featuring employee 100 stock ownership, with concurrent regulation reform, and then the intro- MAIL 100 duction of competition. The AEI Evaluative Studies series aims to promote greater understanding and continuing review of major activities of the federal government. Each study focuses on a government program or policy in operation by examining its purposes, administration, costs, and effectiveness and then recommends practical reforms for improved performance. 100 100 Rick Geddes joined the Department of Policy Analysis and Management 75 at Cornell University in the autumn of 2002 and is an adjunct scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. 50 25 ECONOMICS/GOVERNMENT $20.00 100 100 Rick Geddes 75 50 25 100 Saving the Mail AEI EVALUATIVE STUDIES Marvin H. Kosters Series Editor RETHINKING WIC: AN EVALUATION OF THE WOMEN, INFANTS, AND CHILDREN PROGRAM Douglas J. Besharov and Peter Germanis MEDICARE HOSPITAL SUBSIDIES: MONEY IN SEARCH OF A PURPOSE Sean Nicholson THE U.S. ORGAN PROCUREMENT SYSTEM: A PRESCRIPTION FOR REFORM David L. Kaserman and A. H. Barnett SAVING THE MAIL: HOW TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF THE U.S. POSTAL SERVICE Rick Geddes Saving the Mail How to Solve the Problems of the U.S. Postal Service Rick Geddes The AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute WASHINGTON, D.C. 2003 Contents FOREWORD, Christopher DeMuth ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi 1INTRODUCTION 1 The Timeliness of a Postal Study 2 An Overview 4 2 THE POST OFFICE AND THE REORGANIZATION ACT 7 Supervision of the Post Office 7 Events Precipitating the 1970 Act 9 Goals of the Postal Reorganization Act 11 3THE ORGANIZATION OF THE U.S. POSTAL SERVICE 13 Monopoly Powers 14 The Uniform Rate 29 Government Ownership 31 The Postal Rate Commission 35 The Board of Governors 40 Labor Relations 42 Congressional Oversight 44 Summary 45 4THE EFFECTS OF THE POSTAL REORGANIZATION ACT 47 Previous Research on the Act 47 Data Description and Means Tests 48 Empirical Technique 49 Postal Rates 54 Postal Salaries 61 Productivity and Efficiency 63 v vi SAVING THE MAIL Taxpayers 69 Summary 73 5A CASE FOR POSTAL REFORM 75 Transferable Ownership Shares and Agency Costs 76 Successful Deregulation of Network Industries in the United States 86 Additional Margins of Adjustment 94 Technological Change and the Case for Reform 95 Summary 103 6GLOBAL POSTAL REFORM 105 New Zealand 106 Australia 108 Finland 108 Sweden 109 Norway 109 Germany 110 The Netherlands 111 Switzerland 112 Spain 113 United Kingdom 114 Lessons from Global Reform 115 7A PROPOSAL FOR POSTAL REFORM 117 Creating Transferable Ownership Shares 117 Appropriate Regulatory and Institutional Structures 121 Changes in Market Structure 125 Summary 126 8SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 128 APPENDIX A DESCRIPTION OF DATA SOURCES 131 APPENDIX B DESCRIPTION OF THE MAJOR MAIL CLASSES 133 NOTES 135 INDEX 159 ABOUT THE AUTHOR 165 CONTENTS vii FIGURES 4-1 Real Mail Prices (PRICE), 1945–1997 55 4-2 Price of First-Class Mail (PRICE1), 1945–1997 56 4-3 Price of Second-Class Mail (PRICE1), 1945–1997 58 4-4 Price of Third-Class Mail (PRICE3), 1945–1997 58 4-5 Price of Fourth-Class Mail (PRICE4), 1945–1997 59 4-6 Price of Express Mail (PRICEXP), 1978–1997 60 4-7 Ratio of First-Class to Express Mail Prices (RATIO), 1978–1997 60 4-8 Postal Salaries Relative to Government Workers (RELG), 1930–1996 62 4-9 Postal Salaries Relative to Manufacturing Workers (RELM), 1930–1996 62 4-10 Postal Salaries Relative to Service Workers (RELS), 1930–1996 62 4-11 Postal Salaries Relative to Communications Workers (RELC), 1930–1996 63 4-12 Postal Salaries Relative to Utility Workers (RELU), 1930–1996 63 4-13 Real Sales per Postal Worker (SALESPER1), 1930–1997 65 4-14 Real Sales per Career Postal Worker (SALESPER2), 1930–1997 68 4-15 Labor Productivity by Pieces per Postal Worker (PCEPER1), 1930–1997 68 4-16 Labor Productivity by Pieces per Career Worker (PCEPER2), 1930–1997 68 4-17 Total Factor Productivity, 1963–1992 70 4-18 Cost-Efficiency by Pieces Delivered per 1987 Dollar (PCPDOL), 1930–1997 70 4-19 USPS Net Income (INCOME), 1950–1997 71 4-20 Government Appropriations (APPR), 1930–1995 71 4-21 Taxpayer’s Equity, 1962–1997 73 5-1 Ratio of First-Class to Third-Class Mail Revenues, 1971–1997 99 TABLES 4-1 Variables, Descriptive Statistics, and Means Tests 50 4-2 Intervention Estimates of the Effect of Postal Reorganization on Mail Prices 57 viii SAVING THE MAIL 4-3 Intervention Estimates of the Effect of Postal Reorganization on Relative Salaries 64 4-4 Intervention Estimates of the Effect of Postal Reorganization on Productivity and Efficiency 66 4-5 Intervention Estimates of the Effect of Postal Reorganization on Taxpayers 72 5-1 Summary of Price Changes from Regulatory Reform in the United States 89 5-2 Summary of the Assessed Effects of Regulatory Reform on Prices and Service 91 5-3 Summary of the Assessed Effects of Regulatory Reform on Profits 91 5-4 Summary of the Assessed Effects of Regulatory Reform on Wages and Employment 93 5-5 Summary of the Assessed Effects of Regulatory Reform 94 Foreword The AEI Evaluative Studies series consists of detailed empirical analyses of government programs and policies in action. Each study documents the history, purposes, operations, and political underpinnings of the program in question; analyzes its costs, consequences, and efficacy in achieving its goals; and presents proposals for reform. The studies are prepared by leading academic students of individual policy fields and are reviewed by scholars, agency officials, and program proponents and critics before publication. The growth of public policy research in recent decades has been accompanied by a burgeoning of research and writing on proposed poli- cies and those in the initial stages of implementation. Careful evaluation of the large base of existing programs and policies—many of them politically entrenched and no longer at the forefront of policy debate—has suffered from relative neglect. Within the government, program evaluation is typi- cally limited to scrutiny of annual spending levels and of the number and composition of constituents who are served. Insufficient attention is devoted to fundamental questions: whether a program’s social or economic goals are being accomplished, whether the goals are worthy and important, and whether they might be better achieved through alternative approaches. The AEI series, directed by Marvin Kosters, aims to redress that imbalance. By examining government programs in action, it aims to direct more academic, political, and public attention to whether we are getting our money’s worth from well-established programs and whether current “policy reform” agendas are indeed focused on issues with the greatest potential for improved public welfare. CHRISTOPHER DEMUTH President American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research ix Acknowledgments The study of an institution as old, as large, and as complex as the U.S. Postal Service is an inherently challenging undertaking. Even though the subject matter is clearly delineated, the amount of institutional detail is extraordinary. Developments related to postal services, both domesti- cally and internationally, are occurring at a rapid pace. It is thus crucial to receive help and advice from others in the field to offer even a mod- estly comprehensive treatment. On that score I have been exceptionally lucky. Members of the small community of postal experts have been generous with their knowledge and experience throughout the writing of this book. Although views differ on how to reform the Postal Service, or indeed on the need for reform itself, all advice was offered with the spirit of improving an important American institution. For helpful comments and suggestions on this and earlier drafts, I am grateful to Maynard Benjamin, Jim Campbell, Bob Cohen, Murray Comarow, Michael Crew, Chris DeMuth, John Hilke, Marv Kosters, Tom Lenard, Bob McLean, Leonard Merewitz, Malin Moench, Wally Mullin, Jim Rogers, Mike Schuyler, Greg Sidak, and Robert Taub. I am thankful to all participants of the workshop on the U.S. Postal Service held at the American Enterprise Institute on August 28, 2001, for their input. Finally, I am grateful to the American Enterprise Institute for its help and support throughout the preparation of this publication. xi 1 Introduction The U.S. Postal Service is America’s oldest and largest public enterprise. As the Post Office, it facilitated communications between the colonies and carried messages to the furthest reaches of the nation for almost 200 years. Since 1971 it has continued to distribute mail as the U.S.