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Outer Space and Global Security UNIDIR/2003/26 Outer Space and Global Security UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva, Switzerland Project Ploughshares Canada Waterloo, Canada The Simons Centre for Peace and Disarmament Studies Vancouver, Canada NOTE Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. * * * The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. UNIDIR/2003/26 Copyright © United Nations, 2003 All rights reserved UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. GV.E.03.0.26 ISBN 92-9045-155-6 The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)—an intergovernmental organization within the United Nations—conducts research on disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for bilateral and multilateral disarmament and non- proliferation negotiations, and home of the Conference on Disarmament. The Institute explores current issues pertaining to the variety of existing and future armaments, as well as global diplomacy and local entrenched tensions and conflicts. Working with researchers, diplomats, Government officials, NGOs and other institutions since 1980, UNIDIR acts as a bridge between the research community and Governments. UNIDIR’s activities are funded by contributions from Governments and donors foundations. The Institute’s web site can be found at URL: http://www.unidir.org Cover page: designed by Diego Oyarzún-Reyes (UNCTAD) iv CONTENTS Page Preface. vii Acknowledgements . ix Acronyms. xi PART I – CONFERENCE REPORT 1 Executive Summary. 3 The Militarization of Space . 3 Civil and Commercial Uses of Space . 4 Military and Security Uses of Space. 5 Securing Space for Peaceful Purposes . 7 Pursuing a Space Weapons Ban . 8 Conclusion . 10 PART II – CONFERENCE PAPERS 11 Chapter 1 Militarization, Weaponization and Space Sanctuary: Past Dialogues, Current Discourse, Important Distinctions Bruce M. DeBlois . 13 Proposition 1: Social and Economic Interests . 15 Proposition 2: Technological and Doctrinal Inertia . 16 Proposition 3: Diplomatic Leverage . 16 Proposition 4: Military Superiority . 16 Summary Proposition favouring the advent of space weapons: Historical Precedent . 16 Counter-Proposition 1: Appropriateness . 17 Counter-Proposition 2: Military Nonsense . 17 v vi Counter-Proposition 3: Exorbitant Costs . 18 Counter-Proposition 4: Bad Precedent . 18 Summary Counter-Proposition opposing the advent of space weapons: A Logical Appeal . 19 Chapter 2 Current and Future Military Uses of Space Peter L. Hays . 21 What is Spacepower? . 21 Ways to Categorize Spacepower . 22 Does Spacepower Constitute a Revolution in Military Affairs? . 30 Military Space Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges. 34 Chapter 3 Security Without Weapons in Space: Challenges and Options Rebecca Johnson . 65 The Politics of Space Weaponization. 66 Addressing the Vulnerability of Space Assets . 68 International Approaches . 71 Conclusion . 79 Recent UNIDIR Publications . 87 PREFACE For 50 years, human activity in outer space has been guided by the principle of the “peaceful uses of space”, first enunciated in 1958 by US President Dwight Eisenhower.a Although the term “peaceful purposes” was never clearly defined, it was generally understood to include military, commercial, and scientific activity in space, but to exclude the placement of weapons or the targeting of objects in space. But recent developments suggest that this norm against the weaponization of space is now threatened. The Bush Administration withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in June 2003 and has committed to deploying a multi- layered missile defence system, the first stage of which could be ready by 2004, with testing of a space-based element as early as 2008. As part of this pressure for missile defences, elements within the US Department of Defense (DoD) are pushing hard to expand the military uses of space to include war-fighting capabilities from, in, and into space. Internationally, there is broad consensus in opposition to the weaponization of space, reaffirmed annually by virtually unanimous support for a United Nations General Assembly resolution on Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS).b Although there is clearly broad international support for the creation of a legal instrument prohibiting the placement of weapons in outer space, to date there is still no agreement on a Exchange between Dwight Eisenhower and Nikolai Bulganin, Chairman, Council of Ministers, USSR, 13 January 1958 [Online]. Available from the Eisenhower Institute, in “The Historical Context” at http://www.eisenhowerin- stitute.org/programs/globalpartnerships/fos/newfrontier/letters.htm. b The 2002 First Committee vote on the PAROS resolution was 156 in favour, zero against, with Israel and the US abstaining. United Nations General Assembly, A/C.1/56/L.30, First Committee Voting Record, Fifty-seventh Session, 21 October 2002 [Online]. Available at: www.reachingcriticalwill.org/1com/1com02/vote/voteindex.html. See also the analysis of this discussion in Fiona Simpson, “Anxiety, Hope and Cynicism: the 2002 United Nations First Committee”, Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 68, December 2002/January 2003. vii viii ways and means of achieving such a ban. At the same time, talks on PAROS in the Conference on Disarmament (CD) have been blocked by US opposition since 1995. It was with a view to exploring these dilemmas and developing options for future actions that an international conference on outer space and global security was held in Geneva on 26-27 November 2002. Jointly convened by the Simons Centre for Peace and Disarmament Studies, at the Liu Institute for Global Issues, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), and Project Ploughshares, with support from the Simons Foundation and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, the Conference brought together experts from military, industry, government, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), representing countries with interests across the range of civilian and military space activity. The speakers gave presentations on a variety of technical, political and legal issues regarding space use and space security, including current civilian and military uses of space, technical and political considerations regarding space weapons, the legal regime governing space use, and the prospects and problems of developing a space weapons ban. Patricia Lewis Director, UNIDIR Ernie Regehr Director, Project Ploughshares Canada Jennifer Allen Simons President, The Simons Foundation Director, Simons Centre for Peace and Disarmament Studies, at the Liu Institute for Global Issues ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are grateful to the contributing authors to the Conference—Philip Baines, Jonathan Dean, Alain Dupas, Chris Hadfield, Atef Sherif and Andrei Vinnik—and in particular to those whose papers appear in this volume: Bruce DeBlois, Peter Hays and Rebecca Johnson for their personal and intellectual contribution to this discussion. Special thanks must go to Mark Hilborne and Sarah Estabrooks for compiling and editing the conference report. Anita Blétry at UNIDIR followed this publication through the production stage. We are indebted to The Simons Foundation and the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Canada for financially supporting the Conference. The opinions expressed in the papers are those of the authors and the authors alone. ix x ACRONYMS ABM anti-ballistic missile AEHF advanced extremely high frequency AFM Air Force Manual ASAT anti-satellite BMD ballistic missile defence BNSC British National Space Centre C4ISR Communications, Command, Control, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance CD Conference on Disarmament CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CNES Centre National d’Études Spatiales COPUOS Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space CSBA Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments CSBM confidence- and security-building measures DMSP Defence Meteorological Support Programme DoD Department of Defense DSCS Defense Satellite Communications System DSP Defense Support Program EMP electromagnetic pulse ESA European Space Agency FIA Future Imagery Architecture GBS Global Broadcasting System GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security GPS Global Positioning System GSO Geostationary Orbit ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile ICJ International Court of Justice ICoC International Code of Conduct INSS Institute for National Security Studies IOSA Integrated Overhead Signals Intelligence Architecture ISODARCO International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts ITU International Telecommunication Union JDEC Joint Data Exchange Centre LEO Low Earth Orbit xi xii MILSTAR military, strategic and tactical satellite MEO Medium Earth Orbit MoD Ministry of Defence MSX Midcourse Space Experiment MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NEO Near Earth Object NGO non-governmental organization NIMA National Imagery and Mapping Agency NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPOESS National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NRO National
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