Occasional Paper No. 10 Future Security in Space: Commercial, Military, and Arms Control Trade-Offs James Clay Moltz, ed. Special Joint Series on Missile/Space Issues CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES University Mountbatten Centre for International Studies of Southampton THE CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES The mission of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) is to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction by training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information and analysis. Dr. William C. Potter is the director of CNS, which has a staff of over 60 full-time personnel and approximately 65 student research assistants, with offices in Monterey, CA; Washington, DC; and Almaty, Kazakhstan. CNS is the largest nongovernmental organization in the United States devoted exclusively to research and training on nonproliferation issues. CNS gratefully acknowledges the support of the following funders and thanks them for their commitment to our mission: the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Center for Global Partnership, the Compton Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the HKH Foundation, the Japan-United States Friendship Commission, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the John Merck Fund, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Ploughshares Fund, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and the Scherman Foundation. For more information of the projects and publications of CNS, contact: Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies 460 Pierce Street Monterey, California 93940 USA Tel: 831.647.4154 Fax: 831.647.3519 Email: [email protected] Internet Web Site: http://cns.miis.edu CNS Publications Staff Editor-in-Chief Leonard S. Spector Editor Scott Parrish THE MOUNTBATTEN CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The Mountbatten Centre for International Studies (MCIS) is based in the Politics Department of the University of Southampton, UK. Its work is focused upon strengthening the international regimes designed to combat the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and is directed by Professor John Simpson, OBE. For more information on its projects and publications, contact: Mountbatten Centre for International Studies Department of Politics, University of Southampton Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ UNITED KINGDOM Tel: (023) 8059 2522 Fax: (023) 8059 3533 E-mail: [email protected] Web Site: http://www.mcis.soton.ac.uk/ * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Policy recommendations, statements of fact, and opinions expressed in this Occasional Paper are the responsibility of the authors alone and do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, or the University of Southampton. Authors’ institutional affiliations are noted only for the purpose of identification. ISBN 1-885350-04-X ©Monterey Institute of International Studies CONTENTS Notes on Contributors ii Introduction Future Choices in Space 1 by James Clay Moltz Defenses in Space: Background Issues Defenses in Space: Treaty Issues 3 by Jonathan Dean U.S. Commercial Space Programs: Future Priorities and Implications for National Security 8 by Charles V. Peña Military Approaches to Space Vulnerability: Seven Questions 11 by Robert McDougall and Phillip J. Baines Debris and Future Space Activities 18 by Joel R. Primack Weighing Alternative Approaches to Space Security Putting Military Uses of Space in Context 23 by Steven Lambakis Space Weapons: More Security or Less? 28 by Theresa Hitchens Military Space Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges 32 by Peter L. Hays Enhancing Global Security through Improved Space Management: A Russian Perspective 44 by Vitaly A. Lukiantsev Treaties as an Approach to Reducing Space Vulnerabilities 48 by Cheng Jingye A U.S. Perspective on Space 51 by Eric M. Javits How to Move Forward? Government-Led Discussions regarding Space Weapons and Avenues for Progress 54 by Vladimir Petrovsky Commercial-Led Options 58 by Alain Dupas NGO Approaches and Initiatives for Addressing Space Security 61 by Rebecca Johnson i NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS Phillip J. Baines worked as an aerospace of numerous articles on multilateral engineer from 1982-97. Since 1997, he has disarmament and security issues. served in the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Canada as a policy Dr. Steven Lambakis is a senior defense adviser in space verification and arms control. analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, in Fairfax, Virginia. He is the author Cheng Jingye is deputy director of the Arms of the recent book, On the Edge of Earth: The Control Department in the Chinese Ministry Future of American Space Power (2001). of Foreign Affairs. Vitaly A. Lukiantsev is senior counselor Ambassador (ret.) Jonathan Dean is an with the Department for Security and adviser on Global Security Issues at the Union Disarmament Affairs in the Russian Ministry of Concerned Scientists. He served of Foreign Affairs. previously in a number of senior State Department positions and holds a Ph.D. in Robert McDougall is Director of the Non- Political Science from George Washington Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament University. Division of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of Canada. Dr. Alain Dupas is a physicist, space analyst, and adviser to the French government on Dr. James Clay Moltz is associate director space issues. He received his doctorate in and research professor with the Center for 1977 from the University of Paris, where he is Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the now a professor. Monterey Institute of International Studies. Lt. Col. Peter L. Hays is executive editor of Charles V. Peña is a defense policy expert at Joint Force Quarterly and a 1979 honor graduate the Cato Institute. Peña is the author of of the U.S. Air Force Academy. He has numerous articles on space/missile defense taught space studies in several universities and issues in such publications as the Washington holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Post, New York Times, Defense News, Financial Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Times, and Aviation Week & Space Technology. Theresa Hitchens is vice president of the Ambassador (ret.) Vladimir Petrovsky was Center for Defense Information in director-general of the Conference on Washington, D.C. Editor of Defense News Disarmament in Geneva from 1993-2002. He from 1998 to 2000, she has had a long career joined the Soviet diplomatic service in 1957, in journalism, with a focus on military, rising to the rank of first deputy foreign defense industry, and NATO affairs. minister in 1991. He is the author of several books on foreign affairs and holds doctorates Ambassador Eric M. Javits is the U.S. in both law and history. permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. A graduate of Dr. Joel Primack is professor of physics at the Columbia School of Law, he served for the University of California, Santa Cruz. He many years as a senior partner in international holds a Ph.D. in physics from Stanford legal practice and as a consultant to the U.S. University and has a career of research in State Department. high-energy physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. He is one of the main Rebecca Johnson is the executive director of originators of the theory of cold dark matter, The Acronym Institute for Disarmament which has now become the standard theory of Diplomacy in London. Johnson is executive structure formation in the universe. editor of Disarmament Diplomacy and the author ii FUTURE CHOICES IN SPACE by James Clay Moltz Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies Perhaps the single most important security critical space assets to possible attack by states debate of the early 21st century is the future with medium- or longer-range missiles. Treaty status of activities in outer space. The loopholes from the 1960s have created gaps in international community of states is at a the arms control framework in space, and there crossroads in this regard, facing a choice of are concerns that hostile countries will move to several different directions for how best to exploit them. At the same time, there are proceed. Unfortunately, due to sharp possible new opportunities for strengthening differences of opinion between the United protections in space, if states are able to reach States and other countries over missile defenses consensus on the threats that exist and create and anti-satellite weapons, there are no serious reliable means of verifying that harmful international discussions going on at the activities can be prevented or limited in governmental level regarding these issues. meaningful ways. Similarly, there is currently no domestic forum The purpose of this project on “Future in the United States where representatives of Security in Space,” initiated jointly by the various perspectives and interests are discussing Monterey Institute’s Center for areas of consensus and possible compromise. Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and the This is not a productive state of affairs for any University of Southampton’s Mountbatten participants with an interest in future space Centre, is to identify areas of common ground activities. in the field of future space activity. By creating a Space is unique in the history of human new discussion forum that includes activities in offering an example of early representatives from