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UDC 65 YU ISSN 0353-433 X YEAR LXI JANUARY - FEBRUARY 2013 Ekonomika preduzeca Serbian Association of Economists Journal of Business Economics and Management DA; Risks of Delayed Reindustralization 1 Exchange Rate and Repo Interest Rate in Serbia: What Happened in 2012 and Lessons for Reindustrialization 19 A; No Time to Lose: Fiscal Consolidation Reloaded 31 ; \S Manifestations, Causes and Main Guidelines of Recovery 41 ;!; Microeconomic Fundamentals (of the Structural Changes) of the Serbian !""#$%% 63 ; Avoiding Middle Income Growth Trap through Innovation 83 #! Dynamic Entrepreneurship: The Engine of Economic Growth and Development in Serbia & A$ $'!%% and the Effects of its Application in Serbia 115 $!%&;'& $*+-%% 129 $ -.%/ Conceptual Framework and Achieved Results in Serbia 149 WORD OF EDITOR UDC 65 YU ISSN 0353-443X EP Ekonomika 6 hishis ededitioniti of Ekonomika preduzeća is dedicated to reindustrialization.reindustr The economic reality in Serbia Journal of the Serbian Association of Economists and Serbian Association proves tthathat economice policy so far could not get Serbia of Corporate Directors ooutut ooff transitiotransitionaln crisis, nor could it alleviate the force of Founded in 1947 in Belgrade Year LXI January-February global economic crisis starting in 2008. All papers in this edition have a unique No. 1-2 Page 001-162 message – there is no more time to lose, now is the moment to change economic Publisher: Serbian Association of Economists policy platform and coordinate policy tools. We embraced all the differing views \ of Serbia’s top priorities. We assumed – if enough good minds apply themselves, Dobrinjska 11/1 Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 147 a new and better way forward might finally take shape. 11000 Belgrade, Serbia As the second dip of double-dip recession is evolving in Serbia, the transmission Phone: 011/264-49-80; 361-34-09 Fax: 011/362-96-89 mechanisms of deeply embedded structural imbalances are accelerating, showing Account No: 205-14935-97 Komercijalna their negative impacts on macroeconomic fundaments as well as on overall banka and Web: www.ses.org.rs vulnerability of the economy. In their paper, D. Đuričin I. Vuksanović provided \ an in-dept analysis of Serbia’s economy from several different angles: from President of the Serbian Association of Economists macroeconomic perspective as well as from the business perspective including ; President of the Serbian Association of sectors’ ones. The analysis is not based on reputation, impression, or anecdotal Corporate Directors evidence. It is based on hard data. The authors suggest an anti-crisis program with ; Editor in Chief twofold objectives – financial consolidation and reindustrialization, instead of DA Deputy Editor further financialization of the economy. In the situation of two decades delayed ; reindustrialization and persistent deindustrialization, most of the options are lost. Editorial Coordinator ; The authors propose the two-stage model of reindustrialization with expansion Senior Editors Jelena Birovljev of commodities production (energy and food primarily) in the first stage, and John Humphreys manufacturing in the second stage. ";; "; In the second paper M. Labus criticizes actual monetary policy in Serbia. #$; &A He cautions that in order to achieve future economic growth, monetary policy Stipe Lovreta obstacles to it must be removed. He emphasizes above all that most important '#; #; impediments to industrialization in Serbia refer to the model of inflation targeting, (); "); and related high interest rates and appreciated domestic currency. Output gap *); and forgone export are just part of their price. Using the DSGE model of an open Danica Purg "'; economy, the author tries to prove that the monetary policy based on active role &; Mladen Vedriš of the repo rate in the model of inflation targeting made the recession in 2012 Associate Editors deeper than expected. "; #; In his paper, V. Vučkov ić sees the last years of the crisis in Serbia as a Copy Editor #; “honeymoon” compared to the challenges and problems awaiting its fiscal system Prepress in the following two years. In order to avoid deadly fiscal cliff, he points that the (+; \ Government needs to pose vigilant attention to several challenging tasks: strict P;Q"##$"%&$"% control of public expenditures, implementation of Fiscal Strategy measures, and stampanje.com the restructuring of public finances to solve vertical imbalance between the central Printed in 650 copies The journal is published four times a year and local government levels. : The fourth paper written by D. Malinić explores in detail manifestations of the crisis in the real economy of Serbia. He emphasizes that the global economic crisis along with deeply embedded financial structural disorders transformed the crisis in Serbia’s real sector into crises of competitiveness, profitability, solvency and liquidity. According to him, there is no long term solution to these problems while creditors’ returns are higher than owners’ returns. In their paper J. Anastasijević, V. Čupić, and A. Ilić analyze the key structural changes in Serbia’ s economy since 2007. The authors’ intention was to sketch the crisis’ main effects, by complementing the macroeconomic trends analysis as a way to describe the general environment with the microeconomic, firm-level data analysis. The analysis is fully complementary with the previous paper proving the alarmingly high level of indebtedness, short-term borrowing prevalence and illiquidity of Serbia’s economy. The following paper byD. Vujović explores the problems of long-run growth slowdown and “middle income growth trap”. The author’s focus is on countries unable to compete with low-income, low-wage economies in manufactured exports and also unable to compete with advanced economies in high-skill innovation goods. He presents possible solutions to avoidance of middle income growth trap through strong research and innovation towards smart specialization. E. Jakopin in his paper provides another important concept. He attempts to prove that acceleration of economic growth in Serbia can be achieved through stimulation of dynamic entrepreneurship. He identifies dynamic enterprises as 2.8% of the total number generating almost entire economic growth in the period 2006-2010. Finally, author’s concluding remarks are fully compatible with Porter’s competitiveness of the national framework. The paper written by D. Lončar and S. Milošević gives the analysis of the effects of anti- monopoly policy in Serbia in the period 2006-2012. They analyze the work of the Commission for Protection of Competition in terms of good practice that should be continued, improper practices which should be modified, and practices that should be introduced. The authors deal with the practice of the companies in Serbia with regard to their treatment of anti-monopoly regulatory risk and stress the need to introduce antitrust compliance programs. S. Lovreta, G. Petković and R. Pindžo analyze the status and key operational challenges in commerce and tourism sector seeing them as the most resilient sectors of Serbia’s economy in the last decade. The authors argue that the positive development of the two sectors has not threatened reindustrialization in Serbia. They rather debate that achieved development in these sectors had multiple positive effects on the industrial and agricultural development. The last paper byS. Mali deals with the process of privatization in Serbia through the sale of equity model, its conceptual framework and results. The author’s intention is to prove that that the method of sale was the most adequate privatization model in the case of Serbia. He also argues that tenders are the most suitable method of privatization for large, while auctions are tthehe most suitasuitableble metmethodhood ooff pprivatizationr for medium- and small-size enterprises. PProf.rof. DrDraganraga ann ĐĐuričinuričin, Editor in ChCChiefief ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPER UDK: 338.1(497.11) Date of Receipt: February 14, 2013 DA RISKS OF DELAYED University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Department of Business REINDUSTRIALIZATION Economics and Management ; Rizici zakasnele University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics, Department of Business reindustrijalizacije Economics and Management "||% Za Srbiju je 2012. godina bila teška pošto tranzicija još nije završena dok |%-=}- -%-.%<-=%?- _%|||<BJ ?-<??<?-.%%-BJ |~= ?%A<-?= +% A??<<.<??O=?% O!-=*%<=* ?<<<-=P??<- %J|"Q=QBJ- %=.%<??%"QJQB<.J<. UB=?-J -<UB=?<??-?. ~%.OB%%|=% A<?;.%%.-OB=X- %Y-%[= <.%<???Y-\%[= q|S|%! -??%?%=\%- =*%%- %<.-?.?-- %%%%=% ?<<?%<%<-=]-< ?-%<=^<\% -;-<-?<=^<-?\%- but in downturn negative prospects are affecting its deteriorating per- %<.-A<-?A??-- =%%|%= =<--<<.%= *-]%% -?A%<??<-- -S<%-=*% -..<;-<=_??<% %!%<S-% -?..%A<-=+<<- %=<-|J-%%| ;<%<<%?A%J- -%<J%-= .%-<-=%<.-- !|J%%- %?J?<<%??%.?--;? %.~Y .-?-?%Y?[- %[\|%%- -?.J<?<.-??.=_%--- =*%%- ?-<<E%.-?- %</-%%= ske politike u energetici. |<=*\ q?%?A%=--?< S=<- -.?-?=_<.;<%?A<<<- -%%-= <<?-<--%-<- *~%%|% =+?.%.%%--- %-%=*- A<-;-%=*;%.- %.|<%=#- ?%.?<A?;-%={- %%J|- AJA-%;%..<<< <%|<= <<??.<<-<= )+,*double-dip recession, risk, industrial policy, real eco- )AA*recesija sa duplim dnom, rizik, industrijska politi- nomy, reindustrialization, technological platforms, manufactu- ka, realni sektor, reindustrijalizacija, tehnološke platforme, indu- ring, energy sector strija, energetski sektor 1 : S characterized by output and productivity increase. The overall output gap in Serbia is almost 30% of GDP level in pre-transitional

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