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Romania Market Overview on the Rise Again

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Romania Market Overview on the Rise Again 2014 / 2015 ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW ON THE RISE AGAIN HIGHLIGHTS Record demand and pre-leasing Revival of the industrial sector, Highest investment volume volumes put office market in the marked by cca. 70% market growth since 2007 − €1.2 bn spotlight again CONTENTS 03 INTRODUCTION 04 ROMANIAN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 06 OFFICE MARKET 09 LAND MARKET 10 INVESTMENT MARKET 12 RETAIL MARKET 12 SHOPPING CENTRES 14 HIGH STREET 15 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET 17 RESIDENTIAL MARKET 19 HOTEL MARKET 21 PROPERTY TAXATION 22 LEGAL ASPECTS ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW 2014/2015 INTRODUCTION pre-leasing activity also recorded Bucharest becoming an increasingly a high, triple the volume registered attractive location in the region. in 2013. The next 24 months will Investor demand registered a high see the completion of several large in 2014, resulting in a post-recession developments on the Bucharest record transaction volume of market, mostly speculative. There €1.2 bn. Judging by the number of are reasons to believe that this transactions, the office and retail Romanian market, expected new supply will be sectors were equally preferred by gradually absorbed and will not investors, each attracting seven on the rise again significantly affect the vacancy rates, transactions throughout the year. as pre-leasing activity will strongly However, the retail sector generated the largest share of total transaction The local commercial market continue beyond the first half of 2015. volumes (cca. 40%). Yields are most continues to show signs of strong likely to further contract for the very improvement, especially the office The industrial sector, previously best office and industrial assets. and the industrial sectors, which more resilient to recession, also performed exceptionally well and experienced a remarkable revival recorded double-digit growth in 2014. in 2014, with increased demand for Looking forward we remain industrial space nationwide (up by confident that steady growth is on the cards for the Romanian property As expected, the office market nearly 70%) and positive investor market over the coming years, continues to flourish. Bucharest saw sentiment reflected in a slight yield against the backdrop of the again the highest level of take-up on compression for prime properties. evolution of a new market cycle record, and up by 22% year-on-year. and its inherent opportunities. In tandem with the continued More robust occupier fundamentals strong demand and the tightening along with improved quality assets HORATIU FLORESCU supply, development activity has supported the long-awaited revival Chairman & CEO considerably increased. Moreover, of the investment market, with THE ADVISERS/KNIGHT FRANK countries and the Baltics currently risk has grown as they focus their seeing a significant improvement interest increasingly on secondary in occupier sentiment and a most opportunities and alternative sectors. encouraging trend in Ireland and parts of Southern Europe. Regional However, the really good news for property markets in the wider both occupiers and investors is that Central and Eastern European area rents in most markets remain lower are also expected to perform well than their pre-recession peaks. European outlook on the back of limited availability. This should provide a further boost to activity in 2015, with more While there are some lingering doubts European commercial investment occupiers looking to take advantage about the strength and uneven nature volumes totalled €177.6 billion of good deals, while investors will of Europe’s economic recovery, both in 2014, up 21% on 2013 and seek to cash in on better rental growth prospects as the economic the EU and the Euro area are poised the highest since 2007. Following outlook continues to improve. for positive growth in 2015. a period of yield compression Occupier markets are likely to in major European cities in 2014, DARREN YATES continue to move in line with wider particularly in the office and retail Partner, Head of European Research economic trends, with the Nordic sectors, investors’ appetite for KNIGHT FRANK 3 HIGHLIGHTS ROMANIA 2015 Following a moderate economic MACRO OUTLOOK recovery in the Eurozone and despite the external events — MACROSTABILITY: that could influence Romania’s development, we estimate GOOD, BUT NOT ENOUGH 2015 economic growth at 2.2%, by Radu Craciun, Chief-Economist, BCR driven mainly by domestic demand. and Eugen Sinca, Senior Analyst, BCR The very low inflation rate, along with Looking at the next 1–2 years, Romania’s a moderate economic recovery in the major task is to improve its economic Eurozone, monetary policy divergence growth while preserving the fiscal and between the FED and the ECB, balance of payments equilibrium. Finding political tensions between Russia and proper financing for higher economic Ukraine and the outcome of the Greek growth could prove challenging in sovereign debt problem are key external the current environment, but better events that could influence Romania’s absorption of EU funds, stronger lending economic development in 2015. in the local currency to the private There is potential political volatility ahead sector and a better allocation of public related to a possible reconfiguration of resources among different projects the political landscape triggered by the could solve the puzzle. Real GDP growth results of the 2014 presidential election rates of close to 2% are definitely not and by a rebalancing of power within the suitable to Romania’s goal to enter the two main political parties: the Liberal single European currency area sometime Party (PNL) and the Social-Democrat around 2019. History has shown that, Party (PSD). A number of senior Liberal for some countries, fulfilling the nominal politicians recently suggested they Maastricht criteria was not enough for would like to form a new government and providing a smooth integration into the a no-confidence vote against the current euro area. Therefore, real convergence government cannot be ruled out. criteria such as the GDP/capita gap FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP growth by category of expenditure (pp) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 NET EXPORTS INVESTMENTS GDP -3 GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLDS CONSUMPTION -4 2011 2012 2013 2010 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f Source: National Institute of Statistics, BCR Research 4 ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW 2014/2015 could provide a measure on how the lower end of the range targeted by in 2015, as we believe that the NBR is challenging would be the adoption of the the central bank. This situation was likely use the exchange rate as a tool in euro for a potential candidate. the consequence of a combination fighting deflation. It is therefore expected of factors, among which the deficit of to favor the current y/y depreciation of We estimate 2015 economic growth demand, the imported deflation and the RON. Moreover, the expected rate at 2.2%, driven mainly by domestic the lower oil prices played major parts. and MRR cuts should also weigh on demand, while exports are likely to Although with fading impact, such the RON. Temporary spikes of volatility offer lower support compared to 2014. developments are likely to continue to might occur depending on local political Public investments are again a big weigh on price developments, keeping news as well as on regional geopolitical unknown for economic growth and we inflation below 1% during the first half developments. We expect the NBR to read with skepticism the government’s of 2015, which might lead to a year-end remain in control in order to avoid rapid plans in this area, as laid down in the figure of close to 1.7%. Surprises cannot FX movements. 2015 state budget. The main threat for be ruled out and we see more downside 2015 economic growth comes from The current low yield environment for potential for our forecasts, with the NBR the stretched consolidated budget, local currency bonds is likely to be having to limit any further decline in which targets a deficit of 1.8% of GDP preserved in 2015 as long as the global inflation. against a backdrop of the late 2014 context is supportive. Inflation rate social insurance tax being cut by five Monetary easing is likely to continue in below the NBR’s target most of the percentage points and a 5% rise in 2015, centered upon fresh reductions in time in 2015, the international low yield pensions. Given the low flexibility offered minimum reserves. Ideally, the additional environment as well as the generous by the already ambitious expense liquidity and lower rates provided by the liquidity provided by the ECB and the targets, Romania runs the risk that a cut central bank should have a triple impact: NBR are likely to continue to support in investments would be the main source stimulating consumption/investment the current prices of the Romanian of any major expenditure adjustment, by rewarding savings less, pushing sovereigns, despite the imminent start with the surprising fall in 2014 investment banks into more aggressive lending of rate hikes in the US. activity being a precedent. Moreover, and preserving a moderate level of given the time required to resume the depreciation for the currency in order to investment process, when it is mainly prevent deflation. EU funded, it is hard to expect overnight The EUR/RON exchange rate is likely to results in 2015. fluctuate more than in 2014, due to the Next to boosting growth and keeping external and political risks previously the budget in balance, exceptionally low mentioned, but the NBR is expected to inflation is likely to
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