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Multivariate Approaches to Infer Volcanic System Parameters, Timing, and Size of Explosive Eruptions

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Multivariate Approaches to Infer Volcanic System Parameters, Timing, and Size of Explosive Eruptions This document is downloaded from DR‑NTU (https://dr.ntu.edu.sg) Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Multivariate approaches to infer volcanic system parameters, timing, and size of explosive eruptions Manta, Fabio 2019 Manta, F. (2019). Multivariate approaches to infer volcanic system parameters, timing, and size of explosive eruptions. Doctoral thesis, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/107577 https://doi.org/10.32657/10356/107577 Downloaded on 06 Oct 2021 22:15:36 SGT MULTIVARIATE APPROACHES TO INFER VOLCANIC SYSTEM PARAMETERS, TIMING, AND SIZE OF EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS FABIO MANTA ASIAN SCHOOL OF THE ENVIRONMENT 2019 MULTIVARIATE APPROACHES TO INFER VOLCANIC SYSTEM PARAMETERS, TIMING, AND SIZE OF EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS Fabio Manta Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University A thesis submitted to the Nanyang Technological University in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 I II Candidate Statement of Originality I hereby certify that the work embodied in this thesis is the result of original research, is free of plagiarised materials, and has not been submitted for a higher degree to any other University or Institution. I confirm that the investigations were conducted in accord with the ethics policies and integrity standards of Nanyang Technological University and that the research data are presented honestly and without prejudice. 10/07/2019 . Date Fabio Manta III IV Supervisor Declaration Statement I have reviewed the content and presentation style of this thesis and declare it is of sufficient quality and grammatical clarity to be examined. To the best of my knowledge, it is free of plagiarism and the research and writing are those of the candidate except as acknowledged in the Author Attribution Statement. To the best of my knowledge, the investigations were conducted in accord with the ethics policies and integrity standards of Nanyang Technological University and that the research data are presented honestly and without prejudice. 10/07/2019 . Date Benoit Taisne V VI Nanyang Technological University Asian School of the Environment Authorship Attribution Statement This thesis contains material from 3 papers published and under review in the following peer-reviewed journals: Chapter 2 is published as Manta, F., & Taisne, B. (2019). A Bayesian approach to infer volcanic system parameters, timing, and size of Strombolian events from a single tilt station. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016882 The contributions of the co-authors are as follows: A/Prof Taisne provided the initial project direction and edited the manuscript drafts. I prepared the manuscript drafts. A/Prof Taisne revised the manuscript. I co-designed the study with A/Prof Taisne and performed all the laboratory work at the Asian School of the Environment is Singapore. I also analyzed the data and developed the necessary coding. Chapter 3 is published as Manta F., Emadzadeh A., Taisne B., New insight into a volcanic system: Analogue investigation of bubble-driven deformation in an elastic conduit. (Under review) Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. The contributions of the co-authors are as follows: A/Prof Taisne suggested the materials area and edited the manuscript drafts. I wrote the drafts of the manuscript. The manuscript was revised together with Dr. Emadzadeh and A/Prof Taisne. I co-designed the experimental setup with A/Prof Taisne and performed all the laboratory work at the Asian School of the Environment is Singapore together with Dr. Emadzadeh. I also analyzed the data and developed the necessary coding. VII VIII Part of Chapter 5 has been submitted for publication as Manta F., Occhipinti G., Feng L., Hill E.M., Rapid identification of tsunami earthquakes using GPS ionospheric sounding. (Under review) Scientific Report. The contributions of the co-authors are as follows: A/Prof Hill, A/Prof Occhipinti designed the research. I wrote the drafts of the manuscript. The manuscript was revised together with A/Prof Hill, A/Prof Occhipinti and Dr. Feng. I analyzed and interpreted the data and developed the coding. Dr. L. Feng helped analyzing the GNSS data. This thesis also contains material from 2 papers in preparation for submission: Chapter 4 is under preparation as Manta F., Taisne B., Volcano in the lab: an analogue investigation of bubble driven surface displacement. The contributions of the co-authors are as follows: A/Prof Taisne designed the research. I wrote the drafts of the manuscript. The manuscript was revised together with A/Prof Taisne. I co-designed the experimental setup with A/Prof Taisne and performed all the laboratory work at the Asian School of the Environment is Singapore. I also analyzed the data and developed the necessary coding. Part of Chapter 5 is under preparation as Manta F., Occhipinti G., Hill E. M., Perttu A., Taisne B., Controlled Correlation between GNSS-TEC and eruption magnitude supports the use of ionospheric sensing to complement volcanic hazard assessment. The contributions of the co-authors are as follows: A/Prof Hill, A/Prof Taisne designed the research. I wrote the drafts of the manuscript. The manuscript was revised together with all the authors of this paper. I analyzed and interpreted the data and developed the necessary coding IX X We the undersigned agree with the above stated “proportion of work undertaken” for each of the above published (or submitted) peer-reviewed manuscripts contributing to the thesis: Signed: _________________ _______________ Fabio Manta Benoit Taisne Student Supervisor Asian School of the Environment Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University Date: 10/07/2019 Date: _10/07/2019_____ __________________ Assoc Prof Emma Hill Associate Chair (Research) Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University Date: __11/7/19________ XI XII Aknowledgments Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Asst Prof Benoit Taisne for the freedom I received to find my own path and the guidance, support and consistent encouragement offered throughout the research work. I could not have imagined having a better mentor for my PhD study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank Asst Prof Giovanni Occhipinti, who provided me the amazing opportunity to join his team at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris to conduct part of the research presented in this thesis. My sincere thanks also go to Assoc Prof Emma Hill for leading me to work on diverse exciting projects and Prof Claus-Dieter Ohl for his insightful comments. Next, some people of outstanding importance for my research. I thank my fellow labmates in the Magma Transport Dynamics Lab: Stephen Pansino and Adel Emadzadeh, for letting me learn from their knowledge and experience, for the stimulating discussions and for all the fun we have had in the last years. I am grateful to Dr Michele Xiloyannis from the Robotic Research Centre 2, who formed the basis for my experiments with Arduino and motor controls used in the analogue models reported in this thesis. I would like to thank all the friends from the same lab: Dr Chris Wilson Antuvan, Dr Asif Hussain, Simone Kager, Didier Quirin, Dr Carlo Tiseo, Dr Leonardo Cappello. I have enjoyed many stimulating and entertaining discussions with them during our lunch and coffee breaks. I would like to deeply thank my family, who supported me at every stage of my personal and academic life despite the long distance between us. Last but not least, I owe my deepest gratitude towards my better half Sara Contu for the immense support during this PhD for being always there encouraging me, and guiding me when I have been feeling stuck in a dead-end. By being a great and experienced researcher she had always found time to discuss together with me about the problems of my research project and brainstorming to help me find solutions. The success of this thesis would have not been possible without her. XIII XIV Contents Aknowledgments......................................................................................................................XIII List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... XVII List of Figures........................................................................................................................XVIII Abstract.......................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Importance of volcano monitoring ..................................................................................................................2 1.2 Volcano monitoring.........................................................................................................................................4 1.2.1 Close field volcano surveillance based on seismic and geodetic data...................................................4 1.2.2 Volcano remote sensing for regional risk assessment ...........................................................................6 1.3 Modelling of volcanic process.........................................................................................................................7 1.3.1
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