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Bill Mcguire Looks Back at the Legacy of 1815

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Bill Mcguire Looks Back at the Legacy of 1815 SCIENTIST GEO VOLUME 25 NO 3 u APRIL 2015 u WWW.GEOLSOC.ORG.UK/GEOSCIENTIST The Fellowship Magazine of the Geological Society of London UK / Overseas where sold to individuals: £3.95 READ GEOLSOC BLOG!] [geolsoc.wordpress.com Tambora, t wo centuries on Bill McGuire looks back at the legacy of 1815 DANGER ZONES SEEKING SERENDIPITY MEASURING METRICS Ian Randall on effective hazard Replicating accidental Is arguing the toss over zonation for active volcanoes discovery in the Internet age metrics missing the point? CMT & Waterloo Systems Engineered Nested Wells (Over 5,000 Installations Worldwide) (Proven results for decades) Isolate & monitor discrete zones High Resolution Monitoring: Get the real picture. Detailed Vertical Profiles: Accurate concentration levels www.solinst.com High Quality Groundwater and Surface Water Monitoring Instrumentation Solinst Canada Ltd., 35 Todd Road, Georgetown, ON L7G 4R8 Fax: +1 (905) 873-1992 Tel: +1 (905) 873-2255 [email protected] GEOSCIENTIST CONTENTS 06 16 taphrog exogeosyncline ? ca zeugogeosyncline ? ? ? 10akmolith 24 FEATURES 16 Red for danger? IN THIS ISSUE... Ian Randall reports on research into how the representation of volcanic hazards affects perception and usefulness REGULARS 05 Welcome Ted Nield contemplates some very nasty ways to go at the whim of Mother Earth 06 Society news What your Society is doing at home and abroad, in London and the regions 09 Soapbox Evaluation metrics: Greg Shellnutt takes a ON THE COVER: controversial view from East Asia 10 Tambora - two centuries on 20 Letters We welcome your thoughts Bill McGuire examines the historical and cultural 22 Books and arts Four new books reviewed by Peter legacy of the greatest volcanic eruption in historic Worsley, James Montgomery, Arthur Tingley and Mark Griffin time and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ 24 People Geoscientists in the news and on the move 26 Obituary Gordon Younger Craig 1925-2014 ONLINE SPECIALS Making your 27 Calendar Society activities this month own luck: Paul Cleverley and Simon Burnett recount ‘Tales of the unexpected’ 28 Obituary David Roger Oldroyd 1936-2014 from the search user interface 29 Crossword Win a special publication of your choice WWW.GEOLSOC.ORG.UK/GEOSCIENTIST | APRIL 2015 | 03 04 | APRIL 2015 | WWW.GEOLSOC.ORG.UK/GEOSCIENTIST GEOSCIENTIST WELCOME Geoscientist is the ADVERTISING SALES ~ Fellowship magazine of Ollie Kirkman VIEW FROM THE CRATER the Geological Society T 01727 739 184 of London E ollie@centuryone RIM OF MOUNT TAMBORA TODAY publishing.uk Cover: Adam Majendie / Bloomberg via Getty Images The Geological Society, ~ Burlington House, Piccadilly, ART EDITOR London W1J 0BG Heena Gudka T +44 (0)20 7434 9944 F +44 (0)20 7439 8975 DESIGN & PRODUCTION E [email protected] Sarah Astington (Not for Editorial - Please contact the Editor) PRINTED BY Century One Publishing House Publishing Ltd. The Geological Society Publishing House, Unit 7, Copyright Brassmill Enterprise Centre, The Geological Society of Brassmill Lane, Bath London is a Registered BA1 3JN Charity, number 210161. FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK: T 01225 445046 ISSN (print) 0961-5628 F 01225 442836 ISSN (online) 2045-1784 Library The Geological Society of London accepts no responsibility for the Not nice ways to go T +44 (0)20 7432 0999 F +44 (0)20 7439 3470 views expressed in any article in this publication. All views expressed, E [email protected] except where explicitly stated otherwise, represent those of the EDITOR-IN-CHIEF author, and not The Geological his month marks the 200th ‘Future bad global governance’ Professor Peter Styles Society of London. All rights reserved. No paragraph of anniversary of the 1815 (vacillating politicians fail to face up to this publication may be reproduced, EDITOR copied or transmitted save with Tambora eruption (see p.10), the above). A final category is reserved Dr Ted Nield written permission. Users registered the only historic eruption to for what Donald Rumsfeld might have E [email protected] with Copyright Clearance Center: the Journal is registered with CCC, 27 merit at a Volcanic Explosivity termed ‘Unknown unknowns’, or EDITORIAL BOARD Congress Street, Salem, MA 01970, T USA. 0961-5628/02/$15.00. Every Index (VEI) of 7, and which produced a anything not previously mentioned. Dr Sue Bowler effort has been made to trace staggering 100km3 of debris - enough to All in all, it’s a cheery read. Mr Steve Branch copyright holders of material in Dr Robin Cocks this publication. If any rights have bury the whole of central London to a No, seriously. T S Eliot famously been omitted, the publishers offer Prof. Tony Harris depth of a kilometre. predicted in The Hollow Men that the Dr Howard Falcon-Lang their apologies. Dr Jonathan Turner No responsibility is assumed by the Among other things, the resulting world ends with a whimper; but Dr Jan Zalasiewicz Publisher for any injury and/or ‘year without a summer’ spawned humanity’s low-key demise could damage to persons or property as a Trustees of the matter of products liability, Mary Shelley’s nightmarish indeed be precipitated by a very large negligence or otherwise, or from any Geological Society use or operation of any methods, Frankenstein, so it seems fitting that, as ‘natural’ bang. Some, like supervolcano of London products, instructions or ideas Prof David Manning contained in the material herein. well as thinking carefully about hazard eruptions, we can do little or nothing (President); Although all advertising material is zoning in threatened regions (p. 16), about, except prepare; but as the report Mrs Natalyn Ala (Secretary, expected to conform to ethical (medical) standards, inclusion in this some scientists (quite a few – it makes clear, even the most threatening Professional Matters); publication does not constitute a Dr Mike Armitage (Vice guarantee or endorsement of the acknowledges about 30 contributors) natural threats lie squarely within our president); Dr Nigel quality or value of such product or of should choose this year to publish a control because we are to blame for Cassidy; Prof Neil the claims made by its manufacturer. report* listing 12 ghastly ways in which them in the first place. Chapman; Dr Angela Coe; Subscriptions: All correspondence Mr Jim Coppard; relating to non-member human civilisation might come to an I continue to find this encouraging. Mr David Cragg (Vice subscriptions should be addresses president); Mrs Jane to the Journals Subscription end. Many of these are natural – and Who, in their right mind, would prefer Dottridge; Mr Chris Eccles; Department, Geological Society Publishing House, Unit 7 Brassmill frequent: VEI7s come along about once global climate catastrophe to come at us Dr Marie Edmonds; Enterprise Centre, Brassmill Lane, every 500 years, and VEI8s about once thanks to ineluctable changes in solar Professor Alastair Fraser Bath, BA1 3JN, UK. Tel: 01225 (Secretary, Science); 445046. Fax: 01225 442836. every 100 millennia. Either would be luminosity or orbital wobbles? Mr David Hopkins; Email: [email protected]. The completely devastating. Well, OK - climate-change denyers Mr David Jones (Vice subscription price for Volume 25, 2015 (11 issues) to institutions and president); Dr Adam Law non-members is £132 (UK) or The report lists both natural and would. So, still nobody then. (Treasurer); Prof Alan Lord £151/$302 (Rest of World). anthropogenic threats - some being Those who deny AGW do not, (Secretary Foreign & External Affairs); Dr Brian © 2015 The Geological Society both, like the lead threat, ‘Extreme however, do so out of pessimism - Marker OBE; Dr Gary of London Climate Change’. After ‘Nuclear War’, quite the reverse: a misplaced optimism Nichols; Prof David Geoscientist is printed on FSC mixed Norbury; Dr Colin North credit - Mixed source products are a comes ‘Global Pandemic’, followed by that we can all get on with business as (Secretary, Publications); blend of FSC 100%, Recycled and/or ‘Major Asteroid Impact’ and usual (while the climate goes to hell all Mr Keith Seymour; Dr Lucy Controlled fibre. Accredited by the Slater; Mr Michael Young Forestry Stewardship Council. ‘Supervolcano’. ‘Ecological by itself). No – the truly good news is, Catastrophe’ (ecosystem collapse) is the biggest threat to our existence is Published on behalf of the undeniably anthropogenic, and all the not in space, or even Indonesia. Geological Society of London by rest are squarely down to us: ‘Global Perhaps Sartre got it right after all. Century One Publishing System Catastrophe’ (economic L’enfer, c’est les autres. Alban Row, 27–31 Verulam Road, St Albans, Herts, collapse), Synthetic Biology (engineered * Reference Global Challenges 12 - Risks that AL3 4DG superbug), ‘Nanotechnology’ (better, T 01727 893 894 threaten human civilisation, by Denis Pamlin and F 01727 893 895 smaller weapons), ‘Artificial Stuart Armstrong. Global Challenges Foundation 2015. E enquiries@centuryone Intelligence’ (Terminator & co.), and Available as a PDF from http://globalchallenges.org. publishing.uk W www.centuryone DR TED NIELD, EDITOR - [email protected] @TedNield @geoscientistmag publishing.uk WWW.GEOLSOC.ORG.UK/GEOSCIENTIST | APRIL 2015 | 05 GEOSCIENTIST SOCIETY NEWS What your society is doing SOCIETYNEWS at home and abroad, in London and the regions Honorary Fellowships / Shutterstock.com Projects Travel Image: Creative Following a proposal from the External Relations Committee, Council recommends the following candidates for election to Honorary Fellowship at a future Ordinary General Meeting. Prof Maureen E Raymo Maureen Raymo was the first female recipient of the Wollaston Medal, the Society’s most senior medal (picture, in 2014 with President David Shilston). She is an outstandingly creative scientist who has been setting the agenda in the study of the history of the ocean, and the Earth as a whole. She is a world-class palaeoceanographer and one of the foremost and influential figures in the last 30 years during time which she has had a profound impact on Earth system science.
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