Second City Region Development Project (RRP BAN 49329) ABRIDGED CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS REPORT This assessment follows a standard format in accordance with ADB recommendations and is consistent with LGED and Government of Bangladesh approach. Prepared by PDS consultants under the PDA 6010-BAN: City Region Development Project II I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Second City Region Development Project Project Cost: $223 million Location: Bangladesh: City corporations and pourashavas in Dhaka and Khulna city regions. Dhaka city region: Gazipur city corporation, 9 pourashavas (Tarabo, Sonagaon, Singair, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Kanchon, Kaliakor, Dhamrai, and Savar) and 3 Upazila (Savar upazila under Dhaka district, Rupganj and Araihazar Upazila under Narayanganj district); Khulna city region: Khuna city corporation and 5 pourashavas (Jessore, Nowapara, Jhikargacha, Mongla and Chalna). Sector: Water and other urban infrastructure and services Theme: Environmental sustainable growth, inclusive economic growth Brief Description: The project will support development in the city regions of Dhaka and Khulna by building on infrastructure and capacity building initiatives implemented during the first City Region Development Project funded by the Asian Development Bank. The project will finance crucial infrastructure in urban and peri-urban areas to stimulate growth and improve livability in Dhaka and Khulna, two densely populated and rapidly growing city regions in Bangladesh. The project will also continue strengthening project development capacity, sustainable service delivery, and community awareness. The project is aligned with the following impact: growth potential enhanced and living environment in urban and peri-urban areas improved. The project will have the following outcome: mobility, flood resilience, and solid waste management in the project areas in the Dhaka and Khulna city regions improved. The project has two outputs: (i) Output 1: Urban infrastructure in the project areas in the Dhaka and Khulna city regions improved and made climate-resilient. The project will support (i) the rehabilitation of 300 kilometers of urban roads in the Dhaka city region in line with the recommendations of the Dhaka Structure Plan; (ii) the rehabilitation of 120 kilometers of drains in the Dhaka city region; (iii) the rehabilitation of 30 kilometers of drains in the Khulna city region; and (iv) the construction and operations of one composting plant with associated gender- responsive facilities including transfer stations, a biogas production facility and sanitary facilities in KCC. (ii) Output 2: Institutional capacity and community awareness strengthened. The project will support the (i) identification of additional priority urban investments of at least $100 million and the preparation of detailed engineering designs; (ii) preparation or update of drainage master plans for 14 project pourashavas; (iii) preparation and endorsement of operation and maintenance plans, including annual budget allocation for all subprojects, by all project pourashavas and city corporations; (iv) preparation of an inclusive integrated solid waste management plan for the Khulna city for submission to Khulna city corporation; (v) capacity development of 50 staff (30% women) of project pourashavas and city corporations to increase knowledge on integrated urban planning, sustainable service delivery, and operation and maintenance of urban infrastructure; and (vi) conduct of awareness campaigns on reducing, reusing, and recycling solid waste for at least 200,000 people (at least 50% women) in Khulna city corporation. Source: Asian Development Bank. 2 II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of project components to climate and weather conditions Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and climate induced enhanced disaster risks. The temperature has increased in the past 5 years over the project areas and is projected to further increase in the future (1.5-2.0 oC) by 2050. The rainfall has also increased and is expected to increase by 7%-10% by 2050. However, there are large uncertainties over the scale and intensities of these changes. The project areas are thus vulnerable to droughts and floods due to variability and intensity of rainfall. Both high temperature and high rainfall impacts the road and drainage infrastructures in many different ways as indicated below. Project Components Climate sensitivity 1. Roads, culverts Temperature increase; and bridges Increase of rainfall and intensity; Floods and water logging 2. Drainage Increased Rainfall; Inundation by floods and water logging B. Potential Climate Risks: Roads and Drainage Sl. Risk Topic Description of the Risk 1 Increase in • Material bonding weakens by expansion due to long exposure to heat. temperature • High temperature and drought situation loosen material bonding and degrades road foundation. • Roadside vegetation degrades causing exposure of the roadside slopes, and enhanced vulnerability to erosion. • New concrete structures weaken due to poor curing arising from reduced availability of water at higher temperatures. Curing water dries up, thus increasing water demand and labor requirements. • In case of bituminous carpeting road, road materials lose bonding and damaged due to expansion, softening, and liquefaction. This leads to rutting and buckling and spread and removal of materials due to pressure by vehicle wheels. 2 Increase in • Roads damaged due to river flood, flash flood, inundation for longer rainfall periods and overtopping of the road crest; • Damage of roads due to water logging from intense rainfall and also poor drainage in built-up and market areas; • Pavement edge failure; • Erosion of roadside and slopes by strong runoff during heavy rain. • Wave action damages the road slopes; • Cross drainage is affected in the condition of increased rainfall; • Capillary transportation of water in to the road from the water bodies in the road sides; • Infiltration of rain or flood water through bituminous carpets and cracks; • Flooding of areas adjacent to roadside and other investments; and • Additional costs and delays in obtaining construction materials in flooded areas. 3 Sea Level • Though Dhaka region is away from coastal zone, gravity discharge of Rise (SLR) river flood will slow down due to sea level rise and thus increase the inundation period. 3 C. Potential Climate Risks: Bridges Sl. Risk Topic Description of the Risk 1 Increase in • Bridge structural material degradation; and temperature • Expansion of bridge materials and metals used for construction affects bridge life. 2 Increase in • Due to inundation of bridge deck slab, materials of expansion-joint and rainfall girder-base decayed and loss durability; • Approaches of bridge damaged due to more flooding and overtopping. • Strong water current during floods damages engineering integrity of the bridge; • Maintenance Increases due to extreme daily rainfall; • Increase in frequency and intensity of monsoon rains and winds cause damage; and • Additional costs and delays in obtaining construction materials in flooded areas. Climate Risk Classification Bangladesh is one of the most severe climate vulnerable countries of the world. The coastal zone is highly vulnerable to climate change and oceanic disasters like tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. From this point of view Khulna City Region project components are of medium to high risk. Project components of Dhaka city region are of medium risk. Climate Risk Assessment Climate Risks for first batch of subprojects for Dhaka City Region has been done. Climate Change assessment and uncertainty analysis has been done. Changes of temperature have been projected for 2050. Increases of 1 day maximum and 5-day maximum rainfall with return period of 25 years have also been assessed. The sea level rise and tropical cyclone intensity have been projected for 2050. Dhaka city region is situated in moderate vulnerable zone for earthquake. III. PROJECTED CLIMATE RISKS A. Overall Methodology for the Risk and Adaptation Assessment, Data and Key Assumptions used. 1. Climate change assessment was made using the IPCC AR5 model results provided by MarkSIM climate portal for RCP 6.0 and 8.5. MarkSimTMDSSAT is a well-trained weather simulator, which uses climate history data, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulated future climate data from 17 GCMs in an ensemble. The portal belongs to Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAF/CGIAR) for agricultural applications (link: gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/). The GCM results are downscaled using Markov model and provides information for the selected sites. The overall change in temperature and rainfall by 2050 for RCP 8.5 are shown in Table 1. The information in Table 5–7 are derived using World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) (link: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/) as CCKP Beta is a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change around the world and has the ability of deriving the changes of the extreme percentiles of rainfall. Table 1: Overall Change in Temperature and Rainfall by 2050 for RCP 8.5 Change of Change of Change of Tmin (oC) Tmax (oC) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Seasonal rainfall Month 2050 2050 2050 Change (%) change Jan 2.5 3.4 0 0 4% (DJF) Feb 1.9 1.5 4 19 4 Change of Change of Change of Tmin (oC) Tmax (oC) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Seasonal rainfall Month 2050 2050 2050 Change (%) change Mar 1.4 1.0