Abridged Climate Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Report

Second City Region Development Project (RRP BAN 49329)

ABRIDGED CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS REPORT This assessment follows a standard format in accordance with ADB recommendations and is consistent with LGED and Government of Bangladesh approach. Prepared by PDS consultants under the PDA 6010-BAN: City Region Development Project II I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Second City Region Development Project Project Cost: $223 million Location: Bangladesh: City corporations and pourashavas in Dhaka and Khulna city regions. Dhaka city region: Gazipur city corporation, 9 pourashavas (Tarabo, Sonagaon, Singair, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Kanchon, Kaliakor, Dhamrai, and Savar) and 3 Upazila (Savar upazila under Dhaka district, Rupganj and Araihazar Upazila under Narayanganj district); Khulna city region: Khuna city corporation and 5 pourashavas (Jessore, Nowapara, Jhikargacha, Mongla and Chalna). Sector: Water and other urban infrastructure and services Theme: Environmental sustainable growth, inclusive economic growth Brief Description: The project will support development in the city regions of Dhaka and Khulna by building on infrastructure and capacity building initiatives implemented during the first City Region Development Project funded by the Asian Development Bank. The project will finance crucial infrastructure in urban and peri-urban areas to stimulate growth and improve livability in Dhaka and Khulna, two densely populated and rapidly growing city regions in Bangladesh. The project will also continue strengthening project development capacity, sustainable service delivery, and community awareness. The project is aligned with the following impact: growth potential enhanced and living environment in urban and peri-urban areas improved. The project will have the following outcome: mobility, flood resilience, and solid waste management in the project areas in the Dhaka and Khulna city regions improved. The project has two outputs: (i) Output 1: Urban infrastructure in the project areas in the Dhaka and Khulna city regions improved and made climate-resilient. The project will support (i) the rehabilitation of 300 kilometers of urban roads in the Dhaka city region in line with the recommendations of the Dhaka Structure Plan; (ii) the rehabilitation of 120 kilometers of drains in the Dhaka city region; (iii) the rehabilitation of 30 kilometers of drains in the Khulna city region; and (iv) the construction and operations of one composting plant with associated gender- responsive facilities including transfer stations, a biogas production facility and sanitary facilities in KCC. (ii) Output 2: Institutional capacity and community awareness strengthened. The project will support the (i) identification of additional priority urban investments of at least $100 million and the preparation of detailed engineering designs; (ii) preparation or update of drainage master plans for 14 project pourashavas; (iii) preparation and endorsement of operation and maintenance plans, including annual budget allocation for all subprojects, by all project pourashavas and city corporations; (iv) preparation of an inclusive integrated solid waste management plan for the Khulna city for submission to Khulna city corporation; (v) capacity development of 50 staff (30% women) of project pourashavas and city corporations to increase knowledge on integrated urban planning, sustainable service delivery, and operation and maintenance of urban infrastructure; and (vi) conduct of awareness campaigns on reducing, reusing, and recycling solid waste for at least 200,000 people (at least 50% women) in Khulna city corporation. Source: Asian Development Bank. 2

II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of project components to climate and weather conditions Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and climate induced enhanced disaster risks. The temperature has increased in the past 5 years over the project areas and is projected to further increase in the future (1.5-2.0 oC) by 2050. The rainfall has also increased and is expected to increase by 7%-10% by 2050. However, there are large uncertainties over the scale and intensities of these changes. The project areas are thus vulnerable to droughts and floods due to variability and intensity of rainfall. Both high temperature and high rainfall impacts the road and drainage infrastructures in many different ways as indicated below.

Project Components Climate sensitivity 1. Roads, culverts Temperature increase; and bridges Increase of rainfall and intensity; Floods and water logging 2. Drainage Increased Rainfall; Inundation by floods and water logging

B. Potential Climate Risks: Roads and Drainage

Sl. Risk Topic Description of the Risk 1 Increase in • Material bonding weakens by expansion due to long exposure to heat. temperature • High temperature and drought situation loosen material bonding and degrades road foundation. • Roadside vegetation degrades causing exposure of the roadside slopes, and enhanced vulnerability to erosion. • New concrete structures weaken due to poor curing arising from reduced availability of water at higher temperatures. Curing water dries up, thus increasing water demand and labor requirements. • In case of bituminous carpeting road, road materials lose bonding and damaged due to expansion, softening, and liquefaction. This leads to rutting and buckling and spread and removal of materials due to pressure by vehicle wheels. 2 Increase in • Roads damaged due to river flood, flash flood, inundation for longer rainfall periods and overtopping of the road crest; • Damage of roads due to water logging from intense rainfall and also poor drainage in built-up and market areas; • Pavement edge failure; • Erosion of roadside and slopes by strong runoff during heavy rain. • Wave action damages the road slopes; • Cross drainage is affected in the condition of increased rainfall; • Capillary transportation of water in to the road from the water bodies in the road sides; • Infiltration of rain or flood water through bituminous carpets and cracks; • Flooding of areas adjacent to roadside and other investments; and • Additional costs and delays in obtaining construction materials in flooded areas. 3 Sea Level • Though Dhaka region is away from coastal zone, gravity discharge of Rise (SLR) river flood will slow down due to sea level rise and thus increase the inundation period.

C. Potential Climate Risks: Bridges

Sl. Risk Topic Description of the Risk 1 Increase in • Bridge structural material degradation; and temperature • Expansion of bridge materials and metals used for construction affects bridge life. 2 Increase in • Due to inundation of bridge deck slab, materials of expansion-joint and rainfall girder-base decayed and loss durability; • Approaches of bridge damaged due to more flooding and overtopping. • Strong water current during floods damages engineering integrity of the bridge; • Maintenance Increases due to extreme daily rainfall; • Increase in frequency and intensity of monsoon rains and winds cause damage; and • Additional costs and delays in obtaining construction materials in flooded areas.

Climate Risk Classification Bangladesh is one of the most severe climate vulnerable countries of the world. The coastal zone is highly vulnerable to climate change and oceanic disasters like tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. From this point of view Khulna City Region project components are of medium to high risk. Project components of Dhaka city region are of medium risk. Climate Risk Assessment Climate Risks for first batch of subprojects for Dhaka City Region has been done. Climate Change assessment and uncertainty analysis has been done. Changes of temperature have been projected for 2050. Increases of 1 day maximum and 5-day maximum rainfall with return period of 25 years have also been assessed. The sea level rise and tropical cyclone intensity have been projected for 2050. Dhaka city region is situated in moderate vulnerable zone for earthquake.

III. PROJECTED CLIMATE RISKS

A. Overall Methodology for the Risk and Adaptation Assessment, Data and Key Assumptions used.

1. Climate change assessment was made using the IPCC AR5 model results provided by MarkSIM climate portal for RCP 6.0 and 8.5. MarkSimTMDSSAT is a well-trained weather simulator, which uses climate history data, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulated future climate data from 17 GCMs in an ensemble. The portal belongs to Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAF/CGIAR) for agricultural applications (link: gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/). The GCM results are downscaled using Markov model and provides information for the selected sites. The overall change in temperature and rainfall by 2050 for RCP 8.5 are shown in Table 1. The information in Table 5–7 are derived using World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) (link: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/) as CCKP Beta is a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change around the world and has the ability of deriving the changes of the extreme percentiles of rainfall.

Table 1: Overall Change in Temperature and Rainfall by 2050 for RCP 8.5 Change of Change of Change of Tmin (oC) Tmax (oC) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Seasonal rainfall Month 2050 2050 2050 Change (%) change Jan 2.5 3.4 0 0 4% (DJF)

Feb 1.9 1.5 4 19 4

Change of Change of Change of Tmin (oC) Tmax (oC) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Seasonal rainfall Month 2050 2050 2050 Change (%) change Mar 1.4 1.0 1 2 12% (MAM)

Apr 2.6 1.3 40 31

May 2 0.9 15 6

Jun 1.4 0.9 5 1 7% (JJA)

Jul 1.7 0.9 37 10

Aug 1.5 0.9 14 4

Sep 1.5 1.6 -61 -23 -10% (SON)

Oct 2.6 2.4 -4 -2

Nov 1.9 1.9 3 9

Dec 1.4 2.9 -5 -83

2. The projection of maximum 1-day and 5-day rainfall with 10- and 25-year return period is shown in Tables 2-5. Table 2: Increase in Maximum One-Day Rainfall, in millimeters, At 10-Year Return Period

Scenario ccsm4 csiro_mk3 hadgem2 ipsl_c5ma mri_cgcm3 Average RCP 6.0 10.2 10.6 19.0 2.0 2.9 9.0 RCP 8.5 28.3 6.9 38.0 5.7 4.8 16.8 ccsm4 = csiro = hadgem2 = ipsl_c5ma = mri_cgcm3 = RCP =

Table 3: Increase in Maximum One-Day Rainfall, in mm, at 25-Year Return Period Scenario ccsm4 csiro_mk3 hadgem2 ipsl_c5ma mri_cgcm3 Average RCP 6.0 14.0 13.2 26.0 2.9 4.5 12.1 RCP 8.5 48.7 9.0 50.0 7.6 6.0 24.2 ccsm4 = csiro = hadgem2 = ipsl_c5ma = mri_cgcm3 = RCP =

Table 4: Increase in Maximum 5-day Rainfall, in mm, at 10-Year Return Period

Scenario ccsm4 csiro_mk3 hadgem2 ipsl_c5ma mri_cgcm3 Average RCP 6.0 40.8 42.4 64.8 10.1 -2.8 31.1 RCP 8.5 104.7 26.7 135.4 14.4 2.8 56.8 ccsm4 = csiro = hadgem2 = ipsl_c5ma = mri_cgcm3 = RCP =

Table 5: Increase in Maximum 5-day Rainfall, in mm, at 25-Year Return Period

Scenario ccsm4 csiro_mk3 hadgem2 ipsl_c5ma mri_cgcm3 Average RCP 6.0 66.9 70.2 121.6 13.8 -4.3 53.6 RCP 8.5 181.8 50.4 265.0 18.7 0.1 103.2 ccsm4 = csiro = hadgem2 = ipsl_c5ma = mri_cgcm3 = RCP =

Table 6: Projection of Extreme Rainfall (90th percentile) by 2030 Parameters Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Baseline 7.65 19.24 44.10 104.40 210.50 354.30 426.40 347.50 295.00 177.75 43.70 7.90 (1986-2005) Change of 10.02 14.07 11.25 11.96 34.82 47.73 80.50 83.36 74.87 39.58 17.64 10.58 90th percentile of rainfall % monthly 130.98 73.13 25.51 11.46 16.54 13.47 18.88 23.99 25.38 22.27 40.37 133.92 rainfall

Table 7: Projection of Extreme Rainfall (90th percentile) by 2050

Parameters Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Baseline 7.65 19.24 44.1 104.4 210.5 354.3 426.4 347.5 295 177.75 43.7 7.9 (1986-2005) Change of 15.42 12.74 15.28 11.47 40.03 29.28 79.77 79.42 55.55 42.4 17.5 17.67 90th percentile of rainfall (mm) % monthly 201.57 66.22 34.65 10.99 19.02 8.26 18.71 22.85 18.83 23.85 40.05 223.67 rainfall mm = milimeters

3. For considering climate change for design in drainage, it is necessary to consider the increase of extreme rainfall by 2030 for a 10-year design life of drainage structures. The change of extreme rainfall has been estimated both for 2030 and 2050 and shown in Tables 2–7 and Figures 1 and 2. The blue line shows the ensemble projections of the median rainfall for 2030, while the orange line describes the projection for the GCM bcc_csm1_1. Blue shade shows spread of the projections for different ranges of precipitation expressed as percentiles. The lowest limit of the shades belongs to precipitation within 10th percentile and the uppermost limit indicates that above 90th percentile. The figure indicates that the extreme high rainfall will increase by 70– 80 mm during months of July and August and by around 50 mm in September. This infers that the probability of severe floods/flash floods will increase by 2030. According to the projection for 2050 it is seen that extreme high rainfall increases by 80–110 mm by 2050 when the floods of stronger intensity is expected to occur.

Figure1: Monthly Projection of Rainfall and its 10th And 90th Percentiles For 2030

Figure 2: Projection of Monthly Precipitation and its Extremes (10th and 90thpercentiles) by 2050

4. It is seen that in 2030 the extreme rainfall increases by 23% in August. The increase is nearly same in the 2050 indicating that in the RCP 6.0 scenario the extreme rainfall stabilizes to this magnitude. This is an important factor for drainage design in response to climate change.

IV. CLIMATE RISK SCREENING TOOLS

5. The future climate change has been computed with IPCC AR5 global climate models as available in http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/ MarksimGCM/ and http://climatewizard.ciat. cgiar.org/outputs/Bangladesh_ monthly/sites.

6. The parameters temperature and rainfall changes and sea level rise at different GHG scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 are used.

7. For flood risk analysis for the individual subproject components the flood frequency data and visualization facilities as available in the site (https://global-surface-water. appspot.com/) are used. An example is shown below. The data are generated from Landsat Satellite Imagery analysis for the period 1985–2015. The finding of the analysis is validated through field visits. Field visits were made over the first batch of the Dhaka region road sub-projects over Ruphanj, Araihazar, Savar upazilas and Gazipur City Corporation with analyzed flood maps overlaid with the sub-project alignments. The field observations were used to validate the satellite information about flooding of the roads and nearby areas.

Figure 3: Examples of Flood Frequency Data

LRR1, Rupshi GC – Kanchan GC via Murapara GC (13.775 km) is vulnerable to flooding

LRR1, Rupshi GC – Kanchan GC via Murapara GC LRR7, Murapara GC – Mohishvita RHD road (7.985 (13.775 km) is vulnerable to flooding km)

8. From the above, the potential risks to the roads without and with climate change consideration identified and shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Potential Impacts with and without climate change Disasters Risks without Climate Change With Climate Change Impact of rainfall / floods Roads with height below current HFL will be increased at an HFL will be inundated and will increased future rainfall. suffer damages Road edge and slopes are eroded, Such Impacts will be higher for and seepage takes place through higher monsoon rainfall. bitumen carpeting. Roadside drainage Existing drainage designs may be The drainage capacity isto be adequate increased for drainage of increased rainfall.

The outfall drainage also be enhanced to increase drainage capacity considering climate change. Cross drainage capacity Will require cross drainage The cross-drainage capacity to be increased. Retention Capacity Existing retention capacity is In future, the water retention adequate capacity to be increased with the increase of rainfall. HFL = highest flood levels.

V. CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT RESPONSE WITHIN THE PROJECT

A. Adaptation Options identified for managing the risk 9. Foundation conditions. The stability of any type of infrastructure crucially depends on the materials on which it is built. In the case of transportation infrastructure, an important factor pertains to the degree of soil saturation and the expected behavior of the soil under saturated conditions. The type, strength, and protection of subsurface conditions and materials may have to be increased to control and prevent soil saturation from damaging transport infrastructure.

10. Earthworks. Earthworks will have to be designed to be compatible with the available construction materials and the foundation conditions. Earthworks built onto existing embankments will need to be adequately keyed-in; as indicated on the LGED design manual. Earthworks heights (as discussed elsewhere) should be compatible with the climate model projections.

11. Pavement design. Pavement having sufficient drainage facilities must be considered to accommodate climate change impacts.

12. Construction materials. Materials may exhibit different behavior under different environmental conditions. The strength and durability specifications of these materials should be reviewed in the light of climate impact. The extraction and transport of construction materials, particularly sand and gravel, may be interrupted due to flooding, and costs may increase.

13. Drainage. Water represents a key challenge for the climate resilient design of transport infrastructure. Particular attention must be paid to standard designs pertaining to drainage systems, open channels, pipes, and culverts to reflect changes in future expected runoff or water flow.

14. Erosion Protection. Protection options can be used to counter the erosive effects of monsoon floods and inundation levels and the direct impact of severe rainstorm events. Hard engineering measures may yield better results over the long term when combined with softer measures such as appropriate vegetation planting (bioengineering). The climate resilient design options are given in Table 9.

Table 9: Climate Risk Engineering Responses and Measures Type of Response Engineering Measures Specific Engineering • Road infrastructures are to be at minimum 600 mm higher than Highest responses to Climate Flood Levels (HFL) for adapting to future climate change by 2050; Change • Heat resilient materials for Bitumen carpeting of road; (Predominantly • Reinforced Cement Concrete (RCC) road for the waterlogged areas where Rainfall: Incorporated roads suffer temporary inundation, or the road level cannot be raised into cost estimates) above HFL; • Permeable pavement such as Uni-block (Concrete block) road to infiltrate storm water as well as to reduce surface run-off; • Roadside drainage and cross drainage for increased rainfall amount and intensity; • Adequate compaction for earth work for structures; • Highly vulnerable slopes are to be protected by concrete block with geotextile protection underneath; • Turfing in the slope by suitable grasses, especially suggested to use Vetiver grass; • Road side tree plantation for carbon storage and sequestration; • Additional free-board allowance to design parameters for the depth of drain; • Re-excavation/Dredging of the congested local natural drainage systems and drainage outlets; • Green/Concrete block slope protection of the channel to maintain the design width of the channel; and • Landscaping for absorbing excess water run-off and offering an attractive outdoor area. Other Engineering • Design should consider materials with relatively high temperature responses to climate resistance; change • Adequate curing will be necessary for RCC structures as water evaporates (Incorporated into cost quickly keeping the new infrastructure dry; estimates) • Bitumen carpeting of road is affected by heat and design should consider heat resilient materials for Bitumen carpeting; • Adequate compaction for earth work for structures; • Drain heights with increased water retention holes at the bottom and additional freeboard over the designed drains and any other climate resilient measures may be adopted; • An integrated urban flood management system may be designed with enhanced capacity of drainage, compartmentalization of drainage network and drain the water or liquid wastes to a number of outfalls for developing efficient as well as climate resilient drainage system; • The establishment or enlargement of retention ponds, lakes or any other water reservoirs to retain some of the extra storm water;

Type of Response Engineering Measures • There should be sufficient open space / parks with plantations which will allow the rain water to percolate to the ground and will replenish the ground water which is severely exploited for irrigation; • The increase in temperature has the potential to cause material expansion resulting in expansion and damage to concrete structures such as bridges, culverts and sluices and extra strength and expansion joints to be provided for atmospheric warming; • Rainfall and associated flood events have the potential to cause significant erosive effect on bridges and bridge abutments; and • Bridges should be designed to take into account rising river levels to allow the passing of boats underneath.

VI. CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

15. Based on climate adaptation options identified in the climate risk assessment as defined in section III above, all activities included in the project to address identified climate risk have been listed. All figures are consistent with the project climate risk and financing calculation. Table 10 provides the climate change adaptation cost. The principle based on which climate change adaptation costs are estimated is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Estimate of Climate Change Adaptation Costs Total Cost including Cost without considering Estimated Climate Climate Change Climate Change Change adaptation cost ($ million) ($ million) cost ($ million) Item (A) (B) (A-B) DHAKA REGION ROADS (GCC, Savar, Rupganj) RCC road (Climate change adaptation cost over & above basic bitumen cost) Uni-block road (Climate 86.5 60.5 26.0 change adaptation cost: total cost) Other costs (As listed in Table 11) DHAKA REGION ROADS (Araihazar) RCC road (Climate change adaptation cost over & above basic bitumen cost) Uni-block road (Climate 20.6 15.5 5.1 change adaptation cost: total cost) Other costs (As listed in Table 11) KHULNA SOLID WASTE Collection and Composting 7.7 4.5 3.2 etc. DRAINAGE All drainage improvements 28.4 19.7 8.7 TREE PLANTING All tree planting 0.2 0.0 0.2 TOTALS 143.4 100.2 43.2 RCC = reinforced cement concrete 12

Table 11: Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation activity Climate risk Cost implications Adaptation justification Use of more heat Increase of Included in costs Not considered as the asphalt resistant asphalt extreme used now is resistant enough temperature of projected climate warming More curing for Increase of Included in costs Already enough curing is Reinforced extreme considered in the design Cement Concrete temperature (RCC) pavement More earth work to Increase of Included in costs The normal design has raise the height of rainfall and more considered the raising of road the embankment flooding by 0.8m. It is assumed that the by minimum 0.8 m raising is meant for adapting from highest flood additional severity of floods level (HFL) due to future climate change. Any additional cost for climate change is not required. Higher level of Increased rainfall Included in costs Already considered in normal compaction design, so further compaction is not needed High quality Increased rainfall Included in costs Only one quality of asphalt is asphalt to be used used in the country. Moreover, for water resistivity there is no relation available to and increased relate the thickness of bitumen thickness of the carpeting with rainfall amount. pavement No change necessary. Concrete Roads Increase of Included in costs If the road is submerged (cost of RCC–cost rainfall and more frequently by rainfall, flooding of BC) flooding and water logging and there is no provision for raising the road level, then RCC pavement is to be provided Uni-Block Road Increase of Included in costs Block roads are more water (total cost is rainfall and more resilient included) flooding

Additional Increased rainfall, Included in costs Side drains will be required for drainage capacity floods, water built-up and market areas (all drainage logging components included) Higher Increased rainfall Included in costs High compaction is already Compaction considered in design and construction costs. No further climate change adaptation costs identified.

Adaptation activity Climate risk Cost implications Adaptation justification Slope protection Higher rainfall, Included in costs Vulnerable road slopes will be higher flooding more vulnerable due to and higher wave increasing rainfall. More action intense rainfall has high capacity for causing erosion. This issue already considered in the design. No further climate change adaptation costs identified. Increasing HFL of Higher rainfall, Included in costs Increasing bridge heights bridge floods, wind (around 600mm above HFL) speed (storms may necessary if there is an and storm surges, increase in rainfall and salinity for coastal potential for more flooding. zone only). Strengthening of Increase of Included in costs The bridge structure may be bridge structure maximum affected by changed climate and abutment temperature, conditions. rainfall, floods, wind speed (storms and storm surges, salinity for coastal zone only).and non-climate disaster Earthquake TOTAL COST US$ 43.2 million (Table 10)

VII. CLIMATE MITIGATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

16. Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (a major causal element of climate change) can be achieved through a range of activities within and outside the Second City Region Development Project scope. The following is an outline of some potential mitigation activities that could be used in Second City Region Development Project to reduce the emission of Greenhouse Gases. At this stage in the planning process no details can be included in Table 12.

Table 12: Potential Climate Change Mitigation Activities Relevance to Estimated GHG Second City emission Region reduction/ Estimated Mitigation Potential Mitigation Development Reproduction/ Mitigation Finance Activity Project Sequestration Finance Justification Street LED lighting Not included in To be determined To be To be Second City determined determined Region Development Project at this stage but potential in later phases Introduction of Applicable to To be determined To be To be composting as an this Project determined determined alternative to landfill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Introduction of waste Applicable to To be determined To be To be recycling projects to this Project determined determined recover or reuse plastic and other materials Sequestration of Applicable to To be determined To be To be emission through this Project determined determined extensive tree plantation along roads and drainage channels GHG = greenhouse gas, LED = light-emitting diode.