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Emissions Inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong of Pollutants PM10

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Emissions Inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong of Pollutants PM10 Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) PO Box 100 2027 Kjeller Norway Client: Funder: Bangladesh Department of International Development Environment/CASE Project Association (IDA) Paribesh Bhaban World Bank E-16, Agargaon, Shere Bangla Bangladesh Nagar Dhaka 1207 Bangladesh PROJECT REPORT Project: Bangladesh Air Pollution Studies (BAPS) ID # PO98151, DoE-S13 Task 1: Emission Inventory Report: Draft Report Emissions Inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong of Pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NOX, SOX, and CO Prepared by: NILU Scott Randall, Bjarne Sivertsen, Sk. Salahuddin Ahammad, Nathaniel Dela Cruz, Vo Thanh Dam REPORT NO.: OR 45/2014 NILU REFERENCE: 111091 REV. NO.: May 2015 BS ISBN: 978-425-2719-6 2 1 Executive Summary The Bangladesh Air Pollution Studies (BAPS) project is being prepared for the Clean Air and Sustainability project at the Bangladesh Department of Environment (CASE/DoE). The project has been funded by the World Bank (International Development Association) for obtaining a better understanding of air pollution sources in Bangladesh. The project included the development of emissions inventories, air pollution dispersion modeling as well as field studies/surveys in order to collect air samples and relevant input data. Task 1 of the project sets the basis for understanding the air pollution problems in Bangladesh (for Dhaka and Chittagong), and is a critical task for the entire project. No complete emissions inventory has previously been conducted for these two cities in Bangladesh. The emissions inventory include mapping the various sources (point, area, and line) in the two cities The emissions inventory will further represent the basis for air pollution dispersion modeling undertaken as part of Task 2 of the project. A combined methodology of using bottom-up and top-down scaled input data has been used to populate the emission inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong. Sources of emissions of PM10, PM2.5, NOX, SOX, and CO have been investigated for the sectors Industry (including brick kilns separately), Road Traffic, non-road Traffic, Agriculture, Urban, and Fossil Fuel (energy and gas processing). The emissions inventory has been compiled in the NILU model AirQUIS, which can then process the dispersion modelling of the emissions as needed for Task 2 of this project. Results for the inventory indicate that PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 emissions are dominated by the brick kiln sector in Dhaka. In addition, the traffic sector is the dominating emission source for NOx and CO in Dhaka. In Chittagong, the dominating source sectors are more mixed, where PM10 emissions are primarily from the industrial sector, and SOx emissions from the brick kiln sector exclusively. Also in Chittagong, PM2.5 and CO emissions are primarily from the urban sector, while NOx emissions are primarily from the traffic sector. Annual emission totals for Dhaka are 2-10 times those found in Chittagong, depending on the pollutant of interest. This emission inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong was used for the dispersion modelling (Task 2) to assess the air quality for each city based on the resulting concentrations from the model. When examining and assessing these concentration values from Task 2, it will be important for policy makers to refer back to the resulting emissions generated from this inventory to understand what necessary limits need to be placed, and on what specific sectors. NILU OR 45/2014 2 NILU OR 45/2014 3 Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5 2 Purpose and goals .............................................................................................. 5 3 Study area .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Bangladesh Map ...................................................................................................6 3.2 Dhaka Grid ............................................................................................................6 3.3 Chittagong Grid ....................................................................................................7 4 Methods and Data Sources ................................................................................. 7 4.1 Industrial Emissions (bottom-up scaled) ..............................................................8 4.1.1 Location of Industry stacks ......................................................................9 4.1.2 Emission Factors ................................................................................... 10 4.1.3 Industrial Point Sources to Grid Sources .............................................. 11 4.1.4 Brick Kiln Sources (bottom-up) ............................................................. 12 4.2 Traffic Emissions (bottom-up) ........................................................................... 12 4.2.1 Data Collection, Road Class and Vehicle Type ...................................... 13 4.2.2 Data Collection Methods ...................................................................... 13 4.2.3 Data Reporting ...................................................................................... 15 4.2.4 Data Analysis ........................................................................................ 16 4.2.5 Data Statistical Analysis ........................................................................ 16 4.2.6 Data Flagging ........................................................................................ 16 4.2.7 Quality control of the traffic inventory data ........................................ 18 4.2.8 Traffic Time Variation Factors .............................................................. 18 4.2.9 Vehicle Distribution Factors ................................................................. 18 4.2.10 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) ................................................................... 21 4.2.11 Emission factors and vehicle class distributions ................................... 21 4.3 Area Sources and gap filling (top-down scaling) ............................................... 21 4.3.1 Pre-processing of study area (land use) ............................................... 22 4.3.2 Scaling of Edgar data from 2008 to 2013 ............................................. 25 4.4 The AirQUIS Model ............................................................................................ 26 5 Emission Results ................................................................................................ 26 5.1 Dhaka ................................................................................................................. 26 5.1.1 PM10 ...................................................................................................... 27 5.1.2 PM2.5.................................................................................................... 28 5.1.3 SO2 ........................................................................................................ 29 5.1.4 NOX........................................................................................................ 31 5.1.5 CO ......................................................................................................... 32 5.2 Chittagong ......................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 PM10 ...................................................................................................... 33 5.2.2 PM2.5 ..................................................................................................... 34 5.2.3 SO2 ........................................................................................................ 35 5.2.4 NOx ....................................................................................................... 37 5.2.5 CO ......................................................................................................... 38 6 Summary .......................................................................................................... 39 7 Policy Implications ............................................................................................ 39 8 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................... 40 NILU OR 45/2014 4 9 References ........................................................................................................ 40 Appendix A Industrial Sources (Chittagong) .............................................................. 43 Appendix B Industrial Sources (Dhaka) ..................................................................... 49 Appendix C Industrial Production Values and Emission Factors ................................. 67 Appendix D Traffic Data Flagging for Dhaka .............................................................. 71 Appendix E Traffic Time Variation Factors: Dhaka ..................................................... 77 Appendix F Traffic Time Variation Factors: Chittagong .............................................. 83 Appendix G Traffic Source Emission Factors .............................................................. 89 Appendix H Traffic Source ECVC-RVC Distribution ..................................................... 93 NILU OR 45/2014 5 Bangladesh Air Pollution Studies (BAPS) Emission Inventory for Dhaka and Chittagong of Pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NOX, SOX, and CO 1 Introduction Dhaka can be considered one of the world’s most polluted mega-cities
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