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How can growth and partners’ aspirations be accommodated in the area over the coming decades? Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020

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Contents

01: Foreword 03 02: Executive Summary 04 03: Continuous Modular Strategic Planning 07 04: Leicester Area Strategic Context 08

05: Delivering Additional Future Services 12 06: Leicester Area Capacity 16 07: Accommodating Future Services 22 08: Recommendations and Next Steps 27

Photo credits: Front cover - lower left: Jeff Chapman Front cover - lower right: Jamie Squibbs

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01 Foreword

The Leicester Area Strategic Advice forms part of the The report was produced collaboratively with inputs railway industry’s Long-Term Planning Process covering from key, interested organisations and considers the the medium-term and long-term planning horizon. impact of planned major programmes such as High Investment in the railway is an aid to long-term Speed 2 (HS2), and the strategies and aspirations of sustainable growth for the Leicester area, supporting bodies such as , the Department economic, social and environmental objectives. of Transport (DfT), Connect and the Train has worked collaboratively with rail and Freight Operating Companies. industry stakeholders and partners to develop long- The recommendations from this report support term plans for a safe, reliable and efficient railway to Network Rail’s focus of putting passengers first by support economic growth across Britain. aiming to increase the number of direct services from This study has considered the impact of increased Leicester Station, supporting freight growth and demand for passenger services in the medium and improving performance and satisfaction with the rail long term, starting from a baseline of today’s railway, network. The recommendations were developed into and taking account of the known changes expected high-level interventions and estimates developed with through current franchises. In addition to passenger an order of magnitude cost given. These estimates capacity, the Leicester area caters for growth in freight were approved as part of Network Rail’s Regional and requirements along each rail corridor, including National Cost Planning Assurance processes. facilitating freight growth on the and for the Felixstowe to freight route. Figure 1: Leicester Station

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02 Executive Summary

Leicester is a key city in the and is It has been produced collaboratively using the situated on major traffic flows from all points of the Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) compass. It is located on the busy Midland Main Line process, which considers the needs of the network in a (MML), which connects the line’s southern terminus at holistic manner, with stakeholders from across the rail St Pancras with , and industry working with Network Rail to provide inputs. , along with a number of other towns and The recommendations made here are evidence-based, cities along the route. Leicester is also an important produced using industry-recognised demand forecasts station on the CrossCountry network, between and analysis methodologies. Because of this, CMSP is a to the west and to the east. It vehicle through which funders, including the is situated on major freight corridors linking Felixstowe (DfT) and Midlands to the West Midlands and northern , and Connect (MC), can make informed investment aggregate traffic to and from and more decisions and understand the complex northerly quarries. interdependencies between train service and The Leicester Area Strategic Advice sets out to address infrastructure proposals. the follow strategic question: Three passenger train service scenarios with How can growth and partners’ aspirations be incremental increases in the number of trains were accommodated in the Leicester area over the coming agreed with the Working Group during the CMSP decades? process for the 2030s and beyond, and were based on stakeholder aspirations to improve growth and This strategic advice provides a set of connectivity for Leicester. The three train service recommendations to make sure that the rail network scenarios addressed in this strategic advice are: meets the demands of users for the 2030s and beyond.

Figure 2: Train service scenarios explored Present Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Baseline Based on the current services and     additional franchise commitments Freight – Leicester – Trent Junctions (1fpph and in each direction) Nuneaton – Leicester –    Trent Junctions – Melton Mowbray Bardon Hill – HS2 Link 1tph Leicester to Nottingham  1tph Leicester to Derby Pan Midlands Corridors and 1tph to Nottingham   HS2 1tph Coventry to Derby Midlands Rail Hub 2tph Birmingham to Leicester   Midlands to the North 2tph to or  to Nottingham Total Sum of both directions 22 26 30 34

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The analysis undertaken found that there were Recommendation 3: If electrification proposals are significant benefits to passengers by introducing progressed to the north of , Scenario 3, which included the most additional services. electrification of South Junction to The most significant improvements were to Leeds from North Junction should be based on the layout Leicester and stations south of Leicester on the Midland recommended by this strategic advice. Main Line, where the new services reduced journey times Recommendation 4: Detailed pedestrian capacity by over an hour. modelling for Leicester Station is undertaken at SOBC To implement these additional services, a number of stage, unless passenger usage of the station is still interventions have been identified and are shown in the reduced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. table below. The table shows the interventions that are Recommendation 5: Recommendations in the safety required to meet capacity requirements of running the baseline are explored to reduce passenger incidents additional services and interventions that are further at Leicester Station. recommended to support improved train performance in the area. These recommendations will alleviate capacity constraints identified on the network and are 2.01 Recommendations intended to protect train performance, which is This strategic advice makes five recommendations that closely tied to passenger satisfaction. Progression of should be progressed, with the view that interventions interventions in parallel allows a holistic strategic plan will be aligned to the government-funded Rail Network to be taken forward for the Leicester area. On a Enhancement Pipeline (RNEP). congested railway, there are no shortage of The five key recommendations to support future services competing demands for capacity, and it is not and stakeholder aspirations in the area: expected that progression of options would prove abortive, especially because further emerging Recommendation 1: Four tracking between Wigston aspirations would also benefit from these North Junction and Leicester Station is progressed to recommendations. Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) immediately with a view to delivering benefits as soon as practicable. Furthermore, it is recommended that interventions in the study area take account of other projects to avoid Recommendation 2: The other recommended abortive or corrective work being undertaken and to interventions listed in Figure 3 are progressed to SOBC, maximise the benefits for passenger and freight with a deliverability assessment undertaken to customers. Interventions recommended in this encourage staging delivery of all the recommended strategic advice should be progressed whilst pursuing interventions in parallel to enable synergies and reduce efficiencies with parallel aspirations such as the cost.

Figure 3: Recommended interventions for each train service scenario Constraint Intervention Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Excessive capacity utilisation at Wigston Four tracks from Wigston North Junction Capacity Capacity Capacity North Junction to Leicester, including Knighton Tunnel. Performance Performance Performance

Excessive capacity utilisation at Wigston Addition of a loop capable of North Junction accommodating a 775m freight train at Capacity Capacity Wigston North Junction to simplify Performance Performance Performance operation of freight traffic coming to and from Bardon Hill Quarry (on the Burton Line). Excessive capacity utilisation through Additional switches and crossings Capacity Capacity Leicester Station (points) required between Platform 4 and Performance Performance Performance the Up and Down Slow line north of Leicester Station. Excessive capacity utilisation through Link Platform 1 to the Goods Line Capacity Capacity Leicester Station between Leicester North Junction and Performance Performance Performance Humberstone Road Junction, and upgrading the line to passenger status. Excessive platform utilisation at Leicester Construct an additional platform at Capacity Performance Station Leicester Station. Performance Performance

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Leicester Station Masterplan promoted by Leicester 2.02 Covid-19 City Council and electrification proposals which may The majority of the forecasts and analysis upon which arise following finalisation of the industry’s Traction the recommendations of this report are based took Decarbonisation Network Strategy or future place prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time of upgrading or electrification of the Midland Main Line. publication, the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on rail As the study findings are taken forward, it will be demand are not known. The rail industry continually important to test the proposed scheme to ensure that reviews and updates strategic advice, and Network the infrastructure created is flexible enough to Rail will work with funders to make sure the rail accommodate a range of scenarios wider than the network continues to support society and the those used for this study. Since fixing the scenarios for economy in the long-term. this report the following emerging proposals are being investigated that will place additional demands on the study area infrastructure: • The reopening of the Leicester-Burton freight line, the , to passenger traffic. • East Midlands to study, by Midlands Connect, which examined the case for the extension of the Birmingham-Leicester service to Cambridge. • The East Midlands 3 Cities study, by Midlands Connect, which examined the case the for additional services between Leicester and Nottingham. • Aspirations by freight companies for more services from the ports to the Midlands. Peak forecasts indicate that by 2043, up to seven freight paths per hour (sum of both directions) may be required through Leicester Station compared to the four included in the passenger peak hour modelled in this report for the 2030s. Future stages of development will assess in detail freight growth across the twenty-four hour period.

Figure 4: Leicester Station from Swain St Bridge looking south (photo credit: Peter Leigh)

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03 Continuous Modular Strategic Planning

Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) is the All strategic advice is supported by a governance industry process through which Network Rail leads structure, including the Working Group, whose production of strategic advice. CMSP provides a rolling members contribute local knowledge and evidence programme of recommendations, answering specific throughout the process. strategic questions defined by the rail industry and In line with this approach for the CMSP process, this providing funders with impartial, evidenced-based strategic advice sets out to address the following recommendations for the long-term future of the strategic question: railway. In doing so, it puts the priorities of passengers and freight-users first by identifying opportunities for rail How can growth and partners’ aspirations be investment to stimulate economic growth as part of the accommodated in the Leicester area over the wider transport system. As a collaborative approach to coming decades? strategic planning, service specifiers, train operators and The purpose of this report is to provide potential local and sub-national transport bodies work with funders with strategic advice for the development of Network Rail to develop these investment Leicester area by developing a strategy for long-term recommendations. planning for the future of the network that will As the railway becomes increasingly busy, making the provide an opportunity to support the East Midlands best use of train, track and station capacity is a key economy with a high-quality rail network. challenge. It is important to understand how service Figure 5: Relationship between journey time, patterns, journey times and train performance impact capacity and performance on the capacity and capability of the rail network. The CMSP process is led by Network Rail’s Strategic Planning teams to balance these factors. Journey Time Both absolute and Furthermore, in an environment in which land-use and combinations of transport powers are increasingly devolved to local and journey times a ect regional decision-makers, CMSP recommendations are network capacity and rooted in the whole-system impacts of planned major performance investments, including HS2 Phase 2b. Stakeholders such as Midlands Connect, the Department for Transport, Leicester City Council and Train and Freight Operating Capacity Performance organisations work closely with Network Rail throughout Greater use of the Punctuality and network typically reliability can improve the CMSP process. puts pressure on by running fewer performance and services with more can impact space between journey times them Figure 6: Leicester Station looking north

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04 Leicester Area Strategic Context

As a vital component of the economy and society of the Figure 7: The study area Midlands, the railway plays a key role in connecting Leicester and serves as a link to the local, regional and national network. Leicester is served by trains from all points of the compass, with over 250 passenger and freight trains passing through the area each day on average. This strategic advice will focus on the geographic area from Bridge Junction and Junction to the south to Syston North and Syston East Junctions to the north. The stretch of line south of Leicester Station is a constrained section of track as trains from Nuneaton meet trains from Kettering at Wigston North Junction, to go through Knighton Junction and Tunnel. This means that trains from Kettering on the Midland Main line have to cross trains heading towards Nuneaton. North of Leicester Station, the Midland Main Line towards Sheffield is three and four tracks, with a chord to Syston East Junction and onwards towards Melton Mowbray. 4.01 Existing Train Services

4.01.01 Passenger The rail network plays a key role in driving economic growth across the country connecting millions of people to jobs and delivering goods to markets. The study area is situated on the Midland Main Line (MML) which connects the principal stations of London St Pancras at the line’s southern terminus to Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield, along with a number of other towns and cities

Figure 8: EMR Class 170 (photo credit: EMR)

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along the route. Leicester is also a key station on the Figure 9: Quarry CrossCountry network, between Birmingham to the west and Cambridge to the east. 4.01.02 Freight Rail freight supports domestic and global industry whilst removing traffic volume from the roads, reducing congestion and pollution, and facilitating decarbonisation. Leicester is situated on major freight corridors linking intermodal freight from Felixstowe to the West Midlands. The East Midlands network also includes the Leicestershire aggregate quarries such as Mountsorrel, Bardon Hill and New Cliffe Hill that supply construction demand across the country, highlighting the importance of aggregates traffic through the study area. Demand for concrete production generates significant freight volume of marine dredged sands and gravels from key rail linked wharves at Ipswich and Dagenham.

4.02 Future Train Services

4.02.01 Changes to passenger services 4.02.02 Midlands Connect As operators continue to improve services across the country, changes to Midland Main Line services, Midlands Connect develops transport improvements operated by , are planned for across the Midlands. These improvements aim to the coming years. The Midland Main Line Upgrade transform regional and UK gateways, bringing the Programme enables more seats on faster, quieter Midlands closer together and accelerating cost-effective trains linking Leicester with London and other key improvements to unlock east to west connectivity that MML destinations. Many other aspirational will enable the Midland’s economies to work more proposals exist for additional services in the Leicester effectively together. From their strategy, Midlands area, including the potential to restore the line Connect progress individual projects through a pipeline between Northampton and Market Harborough, which includes planning, delivery and review. Network supported by organisations such as England’s Rail has worked closely with Midlands Connect to Economic Heartland. These additional services will understand the requirements of delivering their place additional stress on the infrastructure in the aspirations in the Leicester area. study area as they are not currently included in the baseline timetable.

Figure 10: Freight train passing through Leicester Station (photo credit: Peter Leigh)

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4.02.03 Midlands Engine Rail 4.02.05 East Midlands Hub Midlands Engine Rail (MER) is Midlands Connect’s The East Midlands Hub station at Toton forms part of overarching plan to transform the region’s rail network. HS2 Phase 2b. Midlands Connect’s aspiration is to This is made up of several projects spanning the East connect the Hub to major centres in the region, Midlands and West Midlands, and is proposed to create including Leicester. In early 2020, the government capacity for 736 additional passenger services on the published the Oakervee Review, which recommended network each day. MER includes connectivity to the East progression of the planned HS2 Phase 2b ‘Y-network.’ Midlands Hub at Toton (see below), including proposed The Department for Transport’s Integrated Rail Plan services linking Bedford with Yorkshire via Leicester and for the Midlands and North is currently assessing the the planned HS2 network. In addition, direct trains optimal configuration to maximise the benefits of linking Coventry with Leicester are proposed as part of planned investment and is supported by the National the MER strategy. Investment Commission and Infrastructure Projects 4.02.04 Midlands Rail Hub Authority. As a key component of MER, Midlands Rail Hub (MRH) is 4.02.06 Ivanhoe Line and Restoring Your Railways Midlands Connect’s flagship project to upgrade the rail Although not part of this study, Network Rail is aware network. This is for a programme of new and upgraded of the aspiration for the reopening of the railway infrastructure works, which is planned to be between Leicester and Burton-on-Trent (the Ivanhoe implemented in phases. The purpose of the Midlands Line) for passenger services. The proposal has been Rail Hub project is to strengthen rail links between the awarded funding as part of the first phase of the East and West Midlands and beyond, including government’s ‘Restoring Your Railways’ Ideas Fund additional services between Leicester and Birmingham. initiative in the time since analysis for this strategic advice commenced.

Figure 11: Midlands Connect rail aspirations through Leicester

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The proposal would see re-established passenger The planned scope included refurbishing the historic services from Burton-on-Trent to Leicester with an Porte Cochere as a destination zone and renovations to aspiration hourly service, doubling to half-hourly at the station building. The passenger experience would be peak times. Further capacity analysis would be improved by upgrading the ticket hall, widening the required to assess the feasibility of additional trains gate-line, and replacement of the platform footbridge into Leicester beyond those tested by this strategic with a wider covered bridge. Station access would be advice. improved by a new multi-storey car park, with accessible and a new taxi drop off to the west of the site next to a 4.03 Leicester Station Masterplan refurbished rear entrance. In November 2019, Leicester City Council submitted a As development of rail enhancements mature, there Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) to the DfT for may be opportunities for synergies, cost savings and a the Transforming Cities Fund to upgrade Leicester creating better experience for passengers if all projects Station. The SOBC was supported by East Midlands can be aligned. Railway and Network Rail as the participating stakeholders in developing a Leicester Station Masterplan. The purpose of the Masterplan was to make the station a gateway to the city and to support the regeneration of the area local around the station.

Figure 12: Leicester Station Masterplan proposal

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05 Delivering Additional Future Services

5.01 Future Passenger Growth Figure 13: Summary of additional services (not all Rail’s competitive journey times and frequency of services shown) services across the network enable businesses to connect and unlock the benefits of agglomeration whilst also increasing labour market catchments. A high-quality railway network encourages modal shift, reducing road congestion, carbon emissions and improves air quality. Planning the strategic direction of the railway, with the challenges and opportunities this entails over the medium to long term, is therefore vital to delivering a versatile and growing economy. To determine the long-term strategic plan for the railway in the Leicester area, an assessment of future rail growth on the corridors connecting Leicester to other key destinations was undertaken through a stakeholder consultation process. These new links can be seen in Figure 13 and form the basis of three Indicative Train Service Specification (ITSS) scenarios. The ITSS scenarios were reflective of a comprehensive assessment of stakeholder aspirations for the East Midlands corridors, encompassing services through Leicester Station into the 2030s and beyond, which were modelled in line with industry agreed standards. The three scenarios provide an incremental uplift in The analysis focuses on the morning peak passenger services when compared with the baseline of hour of 08.00 to 08.591, to estimate the greatest current and committed changes. They are as capacity constraints on the rail network and at Leicester follows: Station.

Figure 14: ITSS scenarios explored Present Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Baseline Based on the current services and     additional franchise commitments HS2 Link 1tph Leicester to Nottingham 1tph Leicester to Derby 

Pan Midlands Corridors 1tph Coventry to Nottingham and HS2 1tph Coventry to Derby  

Midlands Rail Hub 2tph Birmingham to Leicester   Midlands to the North 2tph Bedford to Leeds or Northampton  to Nottingham

Total Sum of both directions 14 18 22 26

1 It is acknowledged that additional freight runs at other times of the day

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Although the ITSS scenarios for the CMSP were agreed An important point about the proposed by the industry and fixed for the purposes of the study, interventions recommended for progression here is the development of train service proposals is a that the capacity created should be flexible enough dynamic process. Since fixing these scenarios, the to accommodate services from a range of origins following additional aspirations are being investigated: and destinations beyond the study area. As the study findings are taken forward, it will be important • The reopening of the Leicester-Burton freight line, the Ivanhoe Line, to passenger traffic. to test the proposed scheme to ensure that the infrastructure created is flexible enough to • East Midlands to East of England study, by Midlands accommodate a range of scenarios wider than the Connect, which examined the case for the extension ITSS scenarios used for this study and emerging of the Birmingham-Leicester service to Cambridge. proposals such as those outlined above. • The East Midlands 3 Cities study, by Midlands Connect, which examined the case the for additional services between Leicester and Nottingham.

Figure 15: EMR Class 222 approaching Leicester Station (photo credit: Ben Knowles)

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5.02 Future Freight Growth There are aspirations by freight companies for more Freight is an important user of the lines in the study area. services from the East Anglia ports to the Midlands. The two major freight flows are intermodal traffic from Peak forecasts indicate that by 2043, up to seven the port at Felixstowe, through Ely, to central and freight paths per hour (sum of both directions) may northern Britain, and aggregate traffic from quarries in be required through Leicester Station compared to Leicestershire and further north to construction sites in the four included in the passenger peak hour southern England. The following four freight paths in modelled in this report for the 2030s. For this reason, each direction have been included in all scenarios to interventions recommended in this report will be meet freight growth aspirations in the study area as assessed against any updates evidence at SOBC agreed at the working groups. stage, as with any rail enhancement. Future stages of development will also identify the peak freight hour This represents a reasonable number of paths for freight and make sure any interventions planned can trains during the peak passenger hour. However, the support this freight growth. number of daily freight paths available would be higher over a 24-hour period as fewer passenger trains run during the passenger off-peak, especially overnight, allowing additional freight paths.

Figure 16: Freight paths included in the ITSS Through Leicester Station Avoids Leicester Station

Nuneaton – Trent Junctions 

Nuneaton – Melton Mowbray 

Trent Junctions – Melton Mowbray  Bardon Hill – Kettering  Total (sum of both directions) 4 4

Figure 17: Freightliner Class 66 with aggregate wagons at Buxton Sidings

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5.03 Passenger Survey The National Rail Passenger Survey (NRPS) provides a network-wide picture of satisfaction with the railway. The latest survey for Leicester Station (at the time of writing) was undertaken in Autumn 2019 and surveyed more than 24,000 passengers nationally, providing a valuable insight for the medium to long term strategic plan of the network. The overall journey satisfaction for rail passengers at Leicester was recorded as 78%, with the key drivers of satisfaction being identified as punctuality, train cleanliness, frequency, length of journey and crowding. An optimised and attractive service frequency 5.04.03 Restoring Your Railways proposition is important, as well as ensuring that Although not part of this study, Network Rail is aware existing journey times are not affected by more trains of the study for the reopening of Leicester to Burton- on the network. Delivering a high-quality journey, both on-Trent (the Ivanhoe Line) and the proposal has been in terms of train cleanliness and providing enough awarded funding as part of the first phase of the passenger capacity to reduce crowding, also needs to ‘Restoring Your Railways’ initiative during this CMSP. It be factored into how additional demand growth can is likely that a reopened Ivanhoe Line will only add be accommodated on the railway in the Leicester area. further congestion to the south of Leicester Station or The inclusion of the drivers of passenger satisfaction in be unable to serve Leicester Station. the strategic planning process allows Network Rail to Figure 18: EMR Class 222 approaching Leicester put passengers first, identifying opportunities to Station from the south (Photo credit: Pete Hackney) deliver both economic growth and improve satisfaction with the rail network.

5.04 Integration with National Priorities

5.04.01 Demand changes from HS2 For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that the HS2 Phase 2b infrastructure and train service patterns are implemented as planned as of Summer 2020. While HS2 trains will not directly serve Leicester, it will have a significant impact on the numbers of passengers who pass through Leicester as many passengers on flows such as London to Sheffield, Derby and Nottingham are expected to switch from Midland Figure 19: CrossCountry Class 170 near Leicester Main Line services to HS2. Rail connectivity between North Junction (Photo credit: Joseph Porter) Leicester and the planned East Midlands Hub at Toton is considered across all scenarios. 5.04.02 Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy Network Rail is working with the industry and partners to develop a Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy. If electrification proposals are progressed to the north of Market Harborough, electrification of Wigston South to Syston North should be based on the layout recommended by this strategic advice. Synergies between interventions in these reports and/ or passive provision for later electrification should be encouraged.

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06 Leicester Area Capacity

Figure 20: Projected growth at Leicester Station 6.01 Passenger Capacity Economic analysis of the tested scenarios has established that that the service aspirations provide enough seating capacity to meet demand forecast for the coming decades across all trains and all three ITSS scenarios. Figure 20 shows the anticipated growth forecast for Leicester, with passenger numbers in the early 2030s being 20% higher than in Spring 2020. This growth is then abstracted by the opening of HS2 Phase 2b, as can be seen in the sharp decline. Passenger growth then continues to increase from this point. It should be noted that this growth forecast is based on pre-COVID-19 passenger growth, with the long- term impacts of it currently unclear, and also assumes HS2 Phase 2b infrastructure and services patterns are implemented as planned as of Summer 2020. Departing services follow a similar pattern, with between The highest load factors in the morning peak were on 70% and 90% of seats occupied, and with potential for the local service to and from Lincoln and Nottingham, standing passengers as it approaches Nottingham. with between 70% and 100% of seats occupied arriving at Leicester in the morning peak as tested, assuming a three-car Class 170 type rolling-stock. Figure 21 shows Scenario 1 which has the highest load factors on this flow. Scenarios 2 and 3’s additional services reduce these load factors to between 70% and 80%. Figure 21: Loadings arriving at Leicester during AM Peak.

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Forecast loadings on express and other (non-local) This is in part driven by the anticipated abstraction services into Leicester in the AM high peak are less than of many passengers travelling between London and 70% for all route sections for all ITSSs, both into and out Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield to travel via HS2. of Leicester, as shown in Figure 22. The forecast For the East-West corridors there is sufficient capacity passenger loads were at their lowest on the north-south available arriving at Leicester in the morning peak in corridors. This reflects maintaining relatively high Scenario 1 from both the Birmingham and Melton Midland Main Line capacity provision in the ITSSs with Mowbray directions. the assumed ten-car rolling-stock.

Figure 22: Loadings on arrival into Leicester Express/Inter Urban

Figure 23: Looking north from Leicester Station (Photo credit: Peter Leigh)

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6.02 Improvements in connectivity The table below shows the generalised journey time The main output of the proposed ITSS Scenario 2 benefit of running the additional services in Scenario 3 and 3 are improved passenger connectivity due to over those in Scenario 1, with the number showing the the additional services. Improved connectivity perceived time saving by passengers. The table clearly translates into providing train services which have a shows the benefit of running two additional services faster journey time, are of a higher frequency and between Bedford and Leeds which use the HS2 route for relatively few (or no) interchanges. Improving part of their journey. This delivers some large generalised connectivity benefits passengers travelling for journey time reductions for flows from Midland Main leisure, business and employment purposes. Line stations south of Leicester to Leeds, and, to a lesser Connectivity can be measured by Generalised extent, Sheffield. There are also several other large GJT Journey Time (GJT). This is a composite measure reductions from these stations to other Midland Main which reflects journey time, frequency and Line stations. interchange. The additional train services within the The number of passengers benefiting from GJT ITSS scenarios deliver significant GJT improvements improvements will vary hugely from flow to flow. to a number of markets. Some of the key benefits Weighting improvements in GJT by the number of include: passengers gives a better indication of the • The additional Leicester services to and from improvements which are delivering most passenger Birmingham produce reductions in GJT of 10 to 15 benefit. This is shown in the ‘Total change in GJTC’ minutes from Birmingham, Birmingham column of the following table, which shows the top International, Nuneaton and Coventry. twenty beneficiaries of improved journey times by calculated reductions in GJTC. • Extending services to Coventry significantly improves connectivity between Coventry and Leicester, , Nottingham and Derby. • The Bedford to Leeds service produces significant GJT reductions, improving connectivity from many Midland Main Line locations south of Leicester. In some cases, reductions are over 100 minutes due to the removal of multiple interchanges that would otherwise be incurred.

Figure 24: Change in GJT from Scenario 1 to Scenario 3

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Figure 25: The twenty largest improvements in passenger GJTC minutes from Scenario 1 to Scenario 3 Origin Destination Total change in Base GJT New GJT GJT change % change GJTC 1 Leicester Birmingham BR 9,308,379 78 64 14 18.1% 2 Leicester Leeds 7,191,467 156 70 86 55.3% 3 Leicester Coventry 3,193,307 112 73 39 34.8% 4 Market Harborough Leicester 2,376,038 41 30 11 26.1% 5 Leicester Bedford Midland 2,175,293 138 69 69 50.2% 6 Leeds Bedford Midland 2,031,170 284 115 169 59.5% 7 Leicester Kettering 1,623,119 50 40 10 20.5% 8 Nuneaton Leicester 1,497,227 48 36 13 26.2% 9 Sheffield Bedford Midland 1,449,436 239 158 81 33.7% 10 Loughborough Leicester 1,425,622 28 25 4 12.6% 11 Birmingham BR Bedford Midland 1,344,605 212 147 66 30.9% 12 Leicester 1,333,671 69 52 16 23.9% 13 Wellingborough Leeds 1,102,040 230 103 127 55.1% 14 BR Leicester 1,060,895 202 184 17 8.6% 15 Leeds Kettering 934,397 199 94 105 52.9% 16 Market Harborough Leeds 872,185 186 85 101 54.4% 17 Loughborough Coventry 791,161 146 83 62 42.8% 18 Wellingborough Sheffield 780,281 184 142 42 22.7% 19 Nottingham Coventry 738,617 152 120 32 20.8% 20 Leicester 764,590 423 350 73 17.2%

6.03 Economic Benefits The benefits for the Leeds-Bedford service was taken This strategic advice considers the holistic impacts of directly from the relevant Midlands Connect SOBC, multiple aspirations agreed with the Working Group, and albeit this assumed 1tph compared to the 2tph tested provides overall recommendations to deliver freight and in this strategic advice. In the case of the Birmingham passenger demand through aspirations for new services. to Leicester and Coventry to Nottingham services, Separately, industry partners have produced Strategic modelling adjustments were applied to the numbers Outline Business Cases (SOBCs) for some of these from the SOBCs to make them more consistent with aspirations in isolation. the CMSP assumptions. It should be noted that these As part of this strategic advice, Network Rail has figures do not constitute a full socio-economic assessed the potential economic benefits associated appraisal and are indicative, based on high-level with these service aspirations, building on the SOBC analysis. completed. Figure 26 below shows the indicative economic values of the services considered.

Figure 26: Benefits and operating costs from SOBCs and other existing analysis. All figures are assumed to be in 2010 prices and based on a 60-year period. Service Operating Costs Benefits (Present Revenue (Present Wider Economic Economic Benefit Economic Benefit Value) Value) Benefits (with WEIs) Leicester £84m £140m £101m £47m £157m £204m Birmingham (2tph) Coventry £99m £105m £51m £83m £56m £139m Nottingham (2tph) Bedford Leeds £510m £851m £446m £428m £787m £1,215m (1tph)

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6.04 Leicester Station Pedestrian Capacity Figure 27: Scenario 1(CS2f) hourly platform Analysis occupancy (Platforms 1 and 2) Station pedestrian capacity analysis was undertaken at a high-level to make sure that the additional services proposed in the scenarios could be safely accommodated at Leicester Station and without risking delays to train services and inconvenience to passengers from potential overcrowding. The analysis undertaken shows the utilisation of platforms and interactions between platforms that share the same island, based on this report’s recommended infrastructure, existing platform plans, with assumed routings for new services. It was intended to undertake detailed modelling of passenger flows as part of this analysis, but the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions placed on travel would have caused passenger count data to be flawed. Previous analysis has been undertaken by Leicester City Council as part of the Leicester Station Masterplan, which identified crowding at ticket Figure 28: Scenario 2(CS2g) hourly platform barriers and recommended increasing the number of occupancy (Platforms 3 and 4) barriers from three to twelve, and relocating them to the booking hall, and increasing the width of the footbridge at the northern side of the station. This report recommends that detailed pedestrian capacity modelling is undertaken at SOBC stage if passenger numbers are more representative of peak station use. In scenario 1, shown in Figure 27, the Leicester to Nottingham and Birmingham to Stansted services arrive at platform 1 and platform 2 simultaneously, and again in the last quarter of the hour with the Birmingham to Leicester service on P1, and the St Pancras to Nottingham service on P2. Both of these instances include the busiest train on one of the platforms. At these times, the most stress is placed on the access/egress points on the platforms. Scenario 2 increases the number of passenger services by four. This includes introducing Midlands Rail Hub Figure 29: Scenario 3(CS2h) hourly platform and Midlands Engine Rail services. These additional occupancy (Platforms 1 and 2) services increase the potential pedestrian flow challenge with potential simultaneous alighting identified on Platforms 3 and 4 with north and southbound MML services, shown in Figure 28. Scenario 2 also identifies potential issues at this island platform, with about 80% of the total demand assumed to use this island platform, and the six busiest trains calling here. Scenario 3 introduces additional MML services linking Bedford to the north. Capacity analysis undertaken as part of this strategic advice recommends that this will require an addition of platform options either a Platform 0 or a Platform5. Figure 29 shows that around the top of the hour, three services on P2 conflict with two services on P1.

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These are services between Coventry and Derby problems on platforms, stairways and the gateline. Not (and reverse), Bedford and Leeds, St Pancras and only can this impact train performance, but it can also Sheffield (and reverse MML service). The number of impact on passenger safety. It is important that conflicts at this time is likely to lead to heavy detailed pedestrian flow modelling is carried out when utilisation of the stairs. As demonstrated by the practical as part of further development, however hatching, both of the busiest trains on P2 arrive at analysis undertaken for the Leicester Station this time, providing heavy footfall. Masterplan has already highlighted overcrowding at Using the assumption that Platforms 0 or 5 have the gatelines. same or similar vertical circulation provision as the 6.05 Safety Baseline other platforms at the station and based on the The safety of passengers, the public and the workforce assumed 2050 demand in the peak 5-minute period, is paramount to Network Rail and the rail industry. In the vertical circulation provision for either platform order to identify opportunities to improve safety as part options 0 or 5 should be sufficient against Network of subsequent stages of development of options for the Rail Station Capacity Planning Guidance, with the Leicester area, a safety baseline has been produced, main stairway providing adequate capacity. In which investigated incidents in the study area with the assessing station pedestrian capacity, it must be aim to identify risks. Figure 30 shows the incidents that considered that the times when passengers alight were recorded around Leicester Station: from busy trains can create pedestrian flow

Figure 30: Safety Baseline key findings Slips, Trips and Falls Suicide Attempts Trespass & Staff Accidents Staff Assaults TOTAL Leicester Station Vandalism (5-year data) 90 19 32 2 47 190

Nearly half of the incidents were slips, trips and falls. There have been 19 suspected suicide attempts and 32 Station staff believe these are due to passengers reports of trespass and vandalism, which make up a rushing for trains on crowded platforms and stairs. further quarter of all incidents. Station staff are trained to The recommendations for reducing these incidents identify these risks. An increase in quantum of trains may are to improve station wayfinding, increased number increase the number of incidents, which could be of ticket barriers, and to build an additional platform mitigated by increased staffing and an additional to reduce peak time crowding. platform to alleviate crowding, so staff have better lines of sight.

Figure 31: CrossCountry Class 170 near Syston Junction (Photo credit: Chris Sansome)

July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 22

07 Accommodating Future Services

7.01 Assessing Network Capacity Figure 32: Wigston North Junction Capacity analysis was undertaken to examine the effects of the three scenarios on rail capacity. At this stage of development, an appropriate high-level methodology has been applied, which mathematically assesses the utilisation of the railway, junctions and platforms to provide evidence of whether freight and passenger services may be run safely in compliance with industry planning rules. A hypothetical utilisation rate above 100% is impossible to accommodate on this infrastructure, and as utilisation approaches 100% the probability of constructing a compliant timetable reduces significantly. Furthermore, high utilisation can increase the risk of train delays as there is less available rail capacity for services to recover during times of perturbation. As section 5.03 notes, the National Rail Passenger Survey highlights the correlation between train performance and passenger satisfaction, and Network Rail therefore plans for a railway which supports strong train performance. Calculations of capacity were undertaken based on the baseline infrastructure and Train Planning Rules. All three scenarios included freight and passenger services and were tested to understand the implications of additional trains operating through the Leicester corridor. The analysis focused on morning peak (08:00 – 08:59) 100%, interventions are recommended across all arrivals into Leicester Station. This was used as it is the scenarios at this junction. busiest sustained period of demand, although it is acknowledged that there may be crowding on services The capacity analysis found that north of Leicester outside these times and that this hour is not the peak for Station currently planned services through to the freight services. Passenger capacity is aggregated and 2030s could be accommodated with existing averaged across all services on the corridors to indicate infrastructure, primarily due to the low number of areas where sufficient capacity is not provided; this trains using the chord towards Syston East enables the development of potential capacity solutions Junction. for the medium to long term on a corridor level, rather than focussing on the existing issues on a service-by service basis. Scenario 1, with the fewest additional services, would results in a capacity utilisation at Wigston North Junction of 90% in the Down direction (towards Leicester) due to the large number of conflicting moves. This is in excess of the desired level to run a reliable, punctual network and is likely to create timetabling difficulties. As Scenario 2 and 3 led to a utilisation of over

Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 23

7.02 Proposed Interventions

7.02.01 Four tracks from Wigston North Junction Figure 33: Knighton Tunnel to Leicester, including Knighton Tunnel Figure 34 shows the conflicting moves that occur for trains in the Up direction heading to Glen Parva Junction (blue), as they cross the path of services in the Down direction from Junction (orange). The numbers show the increasing quantum of trains in each scenario, with Scenario 3 (CS2h) have 8 trains per hour cross the Down line. Utilisation at Wigston North Junction is impacted further by the margin needed at Knighton Junction for the Up move of freight from Bardon Hill Quarry towards Kilby Bridge Jn, leading to utilisation in excess of recommended levels for all scenarios, and in excess of 100% for Scenario 2 and 3. The proposed intervention for all ITSS scenarios is to reinstate the four tracks section of line between Leicester Station and Wigston North Junction. This would allow segregation of traffic flows towards Glen Parva Junction on Up and Down Nuneaton lines, and Kilby Bridge Junction on Up and Down Kettering lines, as can be seen in Figure 35. Knighton Tunnel has a second bore that is currently unused, except for access. Further investigation needs to be completed whether it will be more cost effective to re-use, re-bore or demolish it, especially in light of providing potential passive provision for any future electrification. This report encourages identifying potential cost synergies if this four tracking is done alongside the proposed additional platform at Leicester Station as the track and signals may need to be realigned towards and through Leicester Station. Figure 35: Proposed four tracking of Wigston North Jn track diagram, with Down Nuneaton (DN), Up Figure 34: Details of conflicting move - Down from Nuneaton (UN), Down Kettering (DK) and Up Kilby Bridge Jn (orange) and Up towards Glen Parva Jn Kettering (UK) labelled (blue) at Wigston North Jn.

Note: CS2f, CS2g, CS2h refer to Scenario 1, 2, 3 respectively

July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 24

7.02.02 Leicester Station The table in Figure 36 below lists identified It was found that there is insufficient capacity at advantages and disadvantages of both options at this Leicester Station to accommodate Scenario 3 services. stage. It is recommended that further analysis is An additional platform is therefore recommended at undertaken as part of further development to Leicester Station for this scenario, and would be establish the preferred option. beneficial to network performance, allowing further The two diagrams on the following page show additional passenger services, improved station indicatively how the two platform interventions could pedestrian flow and safety across all three scenarios. be implemented, with the red lines showing the The capacity analysis identified that a new platform, additional track to allow the separation of the Platform 0, could be added to the west of Platform 1, Nuneaton and Kettering running lines. No or a new platform, Platform 5, could be added to the interventions have been identified as required to east of Platform 4. Providing the track alignments are deliver the defined service specification between implemented as recommended, both P0 and P5 Leicester and Syston. As development of options options are deemed to be acceptable interventions at continues, detailed analysis of the deliverability of this early stage of development. benefits will continue based on the most up to date available passenger and freight forecasting and However, the Platform 5 intervention option could only assumptions, as with any rail enhancements scheme. be considered if there were no restrictions on the length of the new platforms, as a short Platform 5 would not accommodate potential 10-car MML trains. Platform 5 is also likely to impact on the Up and Down Slow Loop lines and accompanying sidings. Consideration will be given to any further development of Platform 0 of the interface with the Leicester Station Masterplan.

Figure 36: Comparison of Platform 0 and Platform 5 advantages and disadvantages Platform 0 Platform 5 Benefits Issues Benefits Issues Reduced cost compared to the Signalling to P1 track needs to be Platform 5 option has already been Increased cost compared to the Platform 5 option. assessed to determine viability. assessed as viable on the previous Platform 0 option. studies. Avoids crossover moves in the south Could impact on Leicester Station Does not impact on station buildings. All West Midlands turn back services station throat. Masterplan development. will need to cross over south of Leicester. Carriage sidings are unaffected Loss of surface-level car parking to Longer platform length is possible. Carriage sidings will need to be allowing continuation of Cross accommodate new alignment. removed, necessitating a new Country and Engineering train plant stabling/cleaning road. stabling. Opportunity to provide a 775m The platform length constraints for Potential for passive provision of Unable to create the 775m recessing freight recessing loop on the slow Platforms 0 and 1 need to be Platform 6. loop for freight in the station area. lines which is useful for freight established, and likely to be more recessing and crew change. constrained than P5 option. Likely to be used for local services so Requires more extensive foot bridge can be a shorter platform. works with associated increase in platform disruption. Timetabling requires 240m length platform.

Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 25 25 Figure 37: Platform 0 proposal

Figure 38: Platform 5 proposal

July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 26

7.03 Options to Deliver Future Services To implement the additional services, a number of Order of magnitude cost ranges were produced and interventions have been identified and are shown in validated by Network Rail for all developed options, the table below. The table shows the interventions though, as with any early- stage development work, that are required to meet capacity requirements of these cost ranges should be considered indicative and running the additional services and interventions that subject to more detailed costing as recommendations are recommended to improve train performance in the are progressed. The costs have been categorised utilising area. a Low, Medium, High and Very High approach using the following ranges:

Figure 39: Indicative Order of Magnitude Estimate Range Low Medium High Very High

<£5m £5m - £50m £50m - £250m >£250m

Figure 40: Recommended interventions for each scenario Constraint Intervention Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Indicative OOM Cost Excessive capacity Four tracks from Wigston North Capacity Capacity Capacity High utilisation at Wigston Junction to Leicester, including Performance Performance Performance North Junction Knighton Tunnel. Addition of a loop capable of Performance Capacity Capacity Medium accommodating a 775m freight Performance Performance Excessive capacity train at Wigston North Junction to utilisation at Wigston simplify operation of freight traffic North Junction coming to and from Bardon Hill Quarry (on the Burton Line). Additional switches and crossings Performance Capacity Capacity Medium Excessive capacity (points) required between Platform Performance Performance utilisation through 4 and the Up and Down Slow line Leicester Station north of Leicester Station Link Platform 1 to the Goods Line Performance Capacity Capacity High Excessive capacity between Leicester North Junction Performance Performance utilisation through and Humberstone Road Junction, Leicester Station and upgrading the line to passenger status. Construct an additional platform at Performance Performance Capacity P0: Medium Excessive platform Leicester Station, either Platform 0 Performance OR utilisation at Leicester to the west or Platform 5 to the East P5: High Station

Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 27

08 Recommendations and Next Steps

8.01 Recommendations Recommendation 5: Recommendations in the safety The study has identified Recommendation 1 as a key, baseline are explored to reduce passenger incidents ‘no regrets’ intervention and four further interventions at Leicester Station. that are recommended for progression in parallel to These recommendations will alleviate capacity enable future passenger and freight demand growth, constants identified on the network and are intended support stakeholder aspirations and promote a to protect train performance, which is closely tied to high-performing railway, connecting the Leicester passenger satisfaction. Progression of interventions in area to people and markets across the country. parallel allows a holistic strategic plan to be taken Recommendation 1: Four tracking between Wigston forward for the Leicester area. On a congested North Junction and Leicester Station is progressed to railway, there are no shortage of competing demands SOBC immediately with a view to delivering benefits for capacity, and it is not expected that progression of as soon as practicable. options would prove abortive, especially because further known aspirations, such as the Ivanhoe Line Recommendation 2: The other recommended proposals or the reopening of the railway between interventions listed in Figure 40 are progressed to Market Harborough to Northampton would also SOBC, with a deliverability assessment undertaken to benefit from these recommendations. encourage staging delivery of all the recommended interventions in parallel to enable synergies and Furthermore, it is recommended that interventions in reduce cost. the study area take account of other projects to avoid abortive or corrective work being undertaken, and to Recommendation 3: If electrification proposals are maximise the benefits for passenger and freight progressed to the north of Market Harborough, customers. Interventions recommended in this electrification of electrification of Wigston South strategic advice should be progressed, as far as Junction to Syston North Junction should be based on possible with schemes like the Leicester Station the layout recommended by this strategic advice. Masterplan and any electrification proposals which Recommendation 4: Detailed pedestrian capacity may arise following finalisation of the industry’s modelling for Leicester Station is undertaken at SOBC Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy or future stage, unless passenger usage of the station is still upgrading or electrification of the Midland Main Line. reduced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 41: DB Cargo at Syston North Junction (photo credit: DB Cargo UK | Jamie Squibbs)

July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 28

8.02 Next Steps for the Industry The first stage of the process, a Decision to Initiate, is This strategic advice has identified several potential the establishment of the case for intervention from enhancements to deliver forecast rail growth for the this report and an agreement to produce a Strategic longer-term. The options presented are recommended Outline Business Case (SOBC). This would form the for potential funders to be considered for development next stage in progressing recommendations, entering and ultimately delivery. Network Rail is open for business the potential interventions into the pipeline. Should and welcomes working with funders and interested the next stage, a ‘Decision to Develop’ be agreed, parties to progress these recommendations. further development through the pipeline and business case cycle would be undertaken. Only when a If central government funding is sought, the ‘Decision to Deliver’ has been agreed would the development of the schemes should align to the Rail enhancement be considered committed. Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) process, established to create a rolling programme of The recommendations from this study have been enhancements. The decision points for investment in the produced collaboratively with industry stakeholders to railway are supported by the government’s Five Case deliver a collective view on what is required to deliver Model for business cases, ensuring value for money future train services to support socio-economic throughout the lifecycle. Figure 42 illustrates the stages benefits for the 2030s and beyond. Network Rail will of the RNEP process and identifies where the key continue to work with funders to refine credible decisions for enhancement schemes take place. options that meet the needs of passengers and freight users; that drive social and economic benefits; and

that fit with the long-term needs of a reliable railway system.

Figure 42: RNEP Pipeline Process

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Decision to Decision to Decision to Decision to Acceptance Initiate Determine Develop Develop Design Design Deliver Deliver Deploy

Figure 43: GBRf Class 66 and CrossCountry Class 170 near Syston Junction (Photo credit: Jeff Champman)

Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 Network Rail 1 Eversholt Street London NW1 2DN