How can growth and partners’ aspirations be accommodated in the Leicester area over the coming decades? Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 02 Contents 01: Foreword 03 02: Executive Summary 04 03: Continuous Modular Strategic Planning 07 04: Leicester Area Strategic Context 08 05: Delivering Additional Future Services 12 06: Leicester Area Capacity 16 07: Accommodating Future Services 22 08: Recommendations and Next Steps 27 Photo credits: Front cover - lower left: Jeff Chapman Front cover - lower right: Jamie Squibbs Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 03 01 Foreword The Leicester Area Strategic Advice forms part of the The report was produced collaboratively with inputs railway industry’s Long-Term Planning Process covering from key, interested organisations and considers the the medium-term and long-term planning horizon. impact of planned major programmes such as High Investment in the railway is an aid to long-term Speed 2 (HS2), and the strategies and aspirations of sustainable growth for the Leicester area, supporting bodies such as Leicester City Council, the Department economic, social and environmental objectives. of Transport (DfT), Midlands Connect and the Train Network Rail has worked collaboratively with rail and Freight Operating Companies. industry stakeholders and partners to develop long- The recommendations from this report support term plans for a safe, reliable and efficient railway to Network Rail’s focus of putting passengers first by support economic growth across Britain. aiming to increase the number of direct services from This study has considered the impact of increased Leicester Station, supporting freight growth and demand for passenger services in the medium and improving performance and satisfaction with the rail long term, starting from a baseline of today’s railway, network. The recommendations were developed into and taking account of the known changes expected high-level interventions and estimates developed with through current franchises. In addition to passenger an order of magnitude cost given. These estimates capacity, the Leicester area caters for growth in freight were approved as part of Network Rail’s Regional and requirements along each rail corridor, including National Cost Planning Assurance processes. facilitating freight growth on the Midland Main Line and for the Felixstowe to West Midlands freight route. Figure 1: Leicester Station July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 04 02 Executive Summary Leicester is a key city in the East Midlands and is It has been produced collaboratively using the situated on major traffic flows from all points of the Continuous Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) compass. It is located on the busy Midland Main Line process, which considers the needs of the network in a (MML), which connects the line’s southern terminus at holistic manner, with stakeholders from across the rail London St Pancras with Derby, Nottingham and industry working with Network Rail to provide inputs. Sheffield, along with a number of other towns and The recommendations made here are evidence-based, cities along the route. Leicester is also an important produced using industry-recognised demand forecasts station on the CrossCountry network, between and analysis methodologies. Because of this, CMSP is a Birmingham to the west and Cambridge to the east. It vehicle through which funders, including the is situated on major freight corridors linking Felixstowe Department for Transport (DfT) and Midlands to the West Midlands and northern England, and Connect (MC), can make informed investment aggregate traffic to and from Leicestershire and more decisions and understand the complex northerly quarries. interdependencies between train service and The Leicester Area Strategic Advice sets out to address infrastructure proposals. the follow strategic question: Three passenger train service scenarios with How can growth and partners’ aspirations be incremental increases in the number of trains were accommodated in the Leicester area over the coming agreed with the Working Group during the CMSP decades? process for the 2030s and beyond, and were based on stakeholder aspirations to improve growth and This strategic advice provides a set of connectivity for Leicester. The three train service recommendations to make sure that the rail network scenarios addressed in this strategic advice are: meets the demands of users for the 2030s and beyond. Figure 2: Train service scenarios explored Present Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Baseline Based on the current services and additional franchise commitments Freight Nuneaton – Leicester – Trent Junctions (1fpph and in each direction) Nuneaton – Leicester – Melton Mowbray Trent Junctions – Melton Mowbray Bardon Hill – Kettering HS2 Link 1tph Leicester to Nottingham 1tph Leicester to Derby Pan Midlands Corridors and 1tph Coventry to Nottingham HS2 1tph Coventry to Derby Midlands Rail Hub 2tph Birmingham to Leicester Midlands to the North 2tph Bedford to Leeds or Northampton to Nottingham Total Sum of both directions 22 26 30 34 Leicester Area Strategic Advice July 2020 05 The analysis undertaken found that there were Recommendation 3: If electrification proposals are significant benefits to passengers by introducing progressed to the north of Market Harborough, Scenario 3, which included the most additional services. electrification of Wigston South Junction to Syston The most significant improvements were to Leeds from North Junction should be based on the layout Leicester and stations south of Leicester on the Midland recommended by this strategic advice. Main Line, where the new services reduced journey times Recommendation 4: Detailed pedestrian capacity by over an hour. modelling for Leicester Station is undertaken at SOBC To implement these additional services, a number of stage, unless passenger usage of the station is still interventions have been identified and are shown in the reduced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. table below. The table shows the interventions that are Recommendation 5: Recommendations in the safety required to meet capacity requirements of running the baseline are explored to reduce passenger incidents additional services and interventions that are further at Leicester Station. recommended to support improved train performance in the area. These recommendations will alleviate capacity constraints identified on the network and are 2.01 Recommendations intended to protect train performance, which is This strategic advice makes five recommendations that closely tied to passenger satisfaction. Progression of should be progressed, with the view that interventions interventions in parallel allows a holistic strategic plan will be aligned to the government-funded Rail Network to be taken forward for the Leicester area. On a Enhancement Pipeline (RNEP). congested railway, there are no shortage of The five key recommendations to support future services competing demands for capacity, and it is not and stakeholder aspirations in the area: expected that progression of options would prove abortive, especially because further emerging Recommendation 1: Four tracking between Wigston aspirations would also benefit from these North Junction and Leicester Station is progressed to recommendations. Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) immediately with a view to delivering benefits as soon as practicable. Furthermore, it is recommended that interventions in the study area take account of other projects to avoid Recommendation 2: The other recommended abortive or corrective work being undertaken and to interventions listed in Figure 3 are progressed to SOBC, maximise the benefits for passenger and freight with a deliverability assessment undertaken to customers. Interventions recommended in this encourage staging delivery of all the recommended strategic advice should be progressed whilst pursuing interventions in parallel to enable synergies and reduce efficiencies with parallel aspirations such as the cost. Figure 3: Recommended interventions for each train service scenario Constraint Intervention Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Excessive capacity utilisation at Wigston Four tracks from Wigston North Junction Capacity Capacity Capacity North Junction to Leicester, including Knighton Tunnel. Performance Performance Performance Excessive capacity utilisation at Wigston Addition of a loop capable of North Junction accommodating a 775m freight train at Capacity Capacity Wigston North Junction to simplify Performance Performance Performance operation of freight traffic coming to and from Bardon Hill Quarry (on the Burton Line). Excessive capacity utilisation through Additional switches and crossings Capacity Capacity Leicester Station (points) required between Platform 4 and Performance Performance Performance the Up and Down Slow line north of Leicester Station. Excessive capacity utilisation through Link Platform 1 to the Goods Line Capacity Capacity Leicester Station between Leicester North Junction and Performance Performance Performance Humberstone Road Junction, and upgrading the line to passenger status. Excessive platform utilisation at Leicester Construct an additional platform at Capacity Performance Station Leicester Station. Performance Performance July 2020 Leicester Area Strategic Advice 06 Leicester Station Masterplan promoted by Leicester 2.02 Covid-19 City Council and electrification proposals which may The majority of the forecasts and analysis upon which arise following finalisation