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Europe COVID-19 Tracker Free to View Economics - Europe

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Europe COVID-19 Tracker Free to View Economics - Europe 11 August 2021 Europe COVID-19 tracker Free to View Economics - Europe Vaccine scepticism may hold back the recovery While new COVID-19 infections continue to rise in many Christian Fuertjes countries and remain elevated in the UK and Spain… Economist HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG …vaccination progress is clearly hitting natural boundaries Meanwhile, economic activity continues to recover but also re-enforces wage and inflation fears across Europe Convincing vaccine sceptics is seen as the key to keep the economy open New infection numbers are rising from comparably low levels in France, Italy and Germany while they are stabilising at elevated levels in Spain and the UK (charts 1, 2). With the Delta variant spreading predominantly among the younger population in contrast to the previous infection waves (charts 3, 4), ICU admissions fortunately remain at comparably low levels but nevertheless show a clear upward trend (chart 5). In this respect, all hopes rest on vaccinations to at least prevent hospitalisations in case of an infection. However, progress on vaccination campaigns is obviously stalling across Europe (charts 6, 7). Data from Germany, which we view as representative for the entire EU, indicated that the gap between vaccine supply and actual shots has reached record highs as more than two-thirds of the declining vaccine administrations are now second shots (charts 8, 9). As a consequence, the share of the total population having received full vaccine protection seems likely to reach a ceiling at roughly 60% as data from the more advanced vaccination campaigns in Israel and the UK suggest (chart 10). Therefore, politicians are eager to incentivise vaccination uptake by extending or even increasing the obligation to provide a negative test result for the unvaccinated for leisure activities, such as in France and most recently in Germany (chart 15). Hence, the level of economic activity is for now set to remain below pre-pandemic levels (charts 11-14). While trade numbers look promising, much is due to higher price levels That said, economic data continue to show an ongoing global recovery, reflected by the German trade data from June with German exports exceeding the pre-pandemic level (chart 17). However, on second glance, the export and even more so the import value rebounds are mainly driven by price rather than quantity effects, resulting in a significant deterioration of the German trade surplus (chart 18). On current account terms, this is to some degree compensated for by lower travel account deficits as the tourism sector, e.g. in Spain, remains far below pre-pandemic numbers (charts 19, 20). Labour market recovery could drive wages and inflation up in Europe as well Latest ifo estimates on German short time working also confirm an ongoing normalisation process mirroring developments in Spain and France while the strong June uptick in the Italian numbers merely reflected that is was the last month in which all firms could tap the emergency scheme (charts 21, 22). Impacts of a tightening labour market are already visible in the UK where wages seem to have soared lately (charts 23, 24). It remains to be seen though if this translates into consumer price – and particularly service – inflation over the coming months like it apparently is doing in the US (chart 25). At least for the moment, financial markets don’t seem too intimidated by inflation fears though as the recent ZEW survey and the current low yield levels implicate while the ECB has slightly curbed its weekly asset purchases over the summer break (charts 26-28). This is an abridged version of a report of the same title published on 11 August 2021. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Free to View ● Economics - Europe 11 August 2021 COVID-19 situation has not significantly changed this week 1. European infection numbers have stabilised at elevated levels COVID-19 cases* in the eurozone big 4 and UK 160000 160000 120000 120000 80000 80000 40000 40000 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Germany France Italy Spain UK Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Note: *7-day moving average. 2. Case numbers are rising across Europe 3. COVID-19 patients are on average much but remain highest in Spain and the UK younger than in during previous peaks… 7dma Daily COVID-19 cases per 100k of population 7dma 000s England: New COVID cases by age (7 dma) 000s 70 70 25 25 60 60 50 50 20 20 40 40 Thousands Thousands 30 30 15 15 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 5 5 UK Italy Spain Ireland France 0 0 Greece Norway Belgium Sweden Germany Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Switzerland Netherlands 0-4 5-14 15-34 7-day to 4-Aug 7-day to 10-Aug 35-59 60-79 80< Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC. Note: Weekend numbers are reported as 0 so Source: UK government, HSBC. “7-days to” does not include Saturday and Sunday. 4. …which is also true for less affected 5. This might contribute to still comparably countries like Germany low ICU levels despite rising cases 000s Germany : New COVID-19 cases by age (7 dma) 000s Total COVID-19 related ICU patients (7 dma) Total 10 10 8000 8000 8 8 6000 6000 Thousands 6 6 4000 4000 4 4 2 2 2000 2000 0 0 0 0 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 0-4 5-14 15-34 Spain Germany Italy 35-59 60-79 80< France UK* Source: Macrobond, HSBC. Source: Macrobond, HSBC. Note: *medically ventilated. We acknowledge the assistance of Yash Dewan, HSBC Bank plc, in the preparation of this report. 2 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 11 August 2021 Vaccination campaigns need another push to stop the pandemic 6. Overall European countries show a rather high rate of vaccination… Number Number of v accine doses administered per 100 people Number 180 180 150 150 120 120 90 90 60 60 30 30 0 0 UK (8 Aug) (8 UK US (9 Aug) US (9 Italy (9 Aug) Italy Malta (8 Aug) (8 Malta Spain Aug) (8 Spain Ireland (8 Aug) (8 Ireland France (8 Aug) (8 France Poland (9 Aug) (9 Poland Finland (9 Aug) (9 Finland Aug) (9 Greece Norway (8 Aug) (8 Norway Sweden (6 Aug) (6 Sweden Bulgaria (9 Aug) (9 Bulgaria Portugal (9 Aug) (9 Portugal Romania (8 Aug) Romania Denmark (8 Aug) (8 Denmark Germany (9 Aug) Germany Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. 7. …but the speed of the vaccination 8. …which is clearly driven by much lower campaigns has severely slowed… demand as vaccine supply is now abundant Per mn Daily COVID-19 v accine doses Per mn Mlns Germany : COVID-19 vaccinations Mlns 14000 14000 120 120 12000 12000 100 100 Millions 10000 10000 80 80 8000 8000 60 60 6000 6000 40 40 4000 4000 20 20 2000 2000 0 0 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 0 0 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Vaccine deliveries Germany France Italy Total administered shots Spain UK US Unused doses Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Source: Macrobond, HSBC. 9. In Germany, the number of first dose 10. It seems that actual vaccination numbers administrations fell to a six-month low might not reach desired levels No. Germany : 1st and 2nd vaccination shots No. % Share of population fully v accinated against COVID-19 % 700 700 70 70 600 600 60 60 50 50 500 500 40 40 400 400 30 30 Thousands Thousands 300 300 20 20 200 200 10 10 100 100 0 0 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 0 0 EU Germany France United Kingdom WK7 WK1 WK4 WK19 WK31 WK13 WK16 WK22 WK25 WK28 WK10 Spain Italy First dose Second dose Israel Source: Macrobond, HSBC. Source: Macrobond, HSBC. 3 Free to View ● Economics - Europe 11 August 2021 Still a good deal away from pre-pandemic activity levels 11. While no further restrictions in Europe, 12. While in the UK, more easing has not activity is down slightly led to a significant uptick in activity Index Eurozone: stringency of restrictions Dev iation Index UK: stringency of restrictions Dev iation and mobility * from baseline and mobility * from baseline 0 40 0 20 20 20 20 0 40 0 40 -20 60 -20 60 -40 80 -40 80 -60 100 -60 100 -80 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Stringency score (LHS, inverted) Mobility (RHS) Stringency score (LHS, inverted) Mobility (RHS) Source: Google mobility, Oxford COVID-19 Government response Tracker, HSBC. Source: Google mobility, Oxford COVID-19 Government response Tracker, HSBC Note: *Mobility data is an average of all the components, excluding residential,7dma. Note: *Mobility data is an average of all the components, excluding residential, 7dma. 13. Overall mobility remains roughly unchanged to previous weeks across Europe… % from baseline Europe and US: mobility data - retail and recreation* % from baseline 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 -100 -100 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Germany France Italy Spain UK Sweden Norway US Source: Google, HSBC.
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