Latin America: Impressions of a Troubled Region

By Roger F. Noriega June 2015

KEY POINTS

. Apart from the controversial recognition of Castro’s dictatorship in Cuba, the Obama administration has largely ignored Latin American relations, indifferent to the economic decline and instability in several countries. . Washington’s disengagement has allowed China to establish an economic foothold in the region using predatory business practices and exploitive projects. . It’s not too late for the Obama administration to proactively support free-market exchanges and restore productive relations within the hemisphere.

razilian President Dilma Rousseff’s visit and the systematic violation of human rights. to Washington this week suggests that Worse still, the vacuum has been filled by China B US President Barack Obama may be and chavismo—the authoritarian populism prepared to focus more attention on Latin inspired by the late Venezuelan strongman Hugo America, which he has virtually ignored aside Chávez. Specifically, predatory loans from China from his controversial decision to recognize the have made it possible for leftist governments to Castro dictatorship in Cuba.1 A stable and subsist despite unsound policies. Anti-US prosperous Americas is certainly critical to US protagonists have imposed their divisive politics security and prosperity. However, the Obama in many countries, while US allies feel abandoned administration has failed to defend the country’s and besieged. interests and promote its values, forfeiting Of course, the economic decline in virtually every strategic relationships on energy and trade. US country governed by leftist, statist, or reticence regarding authoritarian populism in the authoritarian governments is fresh evidence that region is not a product of lethargy or indifference: socialist formulas are recipes for failure. it is the product of Obama’s gringo guilt that Opportunities to swing the pendulum back to the ascribes all of the region’s ills to US “meddling.” center exist, if the United States adopts a Washington’s disengagement has contributed to proactive policy to support free-market policies economic decline, insecurity, instability, and the rule of law. corruption, weakened democratic institutions,

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Jump-starting economic growth and the Brazil: Economic Malaise productivity of Petrobras will take time and considerable effort. Rousseff appointed a new and Governance Crisis economic team at the beginning of the year that Brazil, South America’s most populous country has proposed new measures to restore economic and the world’s sixth-largest economy, is confidence and growth. In recent weeks, Brazil’s suffering from economic malaise and a National Congress has begun to adopt elements governance crisis that undermines the region’s of an austerity plan that is expected to bring 4 prospects. This predicament is the legacy of government spending under control. With leaders who relied on costly statist policies and Brazil’s vast natural resources, a regimen of protectionism and refused to retool their overdue reforms should eventually get the economy to make it more competitive and economy growing again. However, the scandal- attractive to investment. ridden politics, a fractious Congress, and the president’s plummeting approval ratings may Sworn in to a second four-year term just five make it difficult for her new team to get traction months ago, Rousseff is confronting the worst in a second term. economic conditions in decades and a spiraling public corruption scandal involving the state- owned oil company, Petrobras. Even before her Presidential-level narrow victory last October, most Brazilians questioned whether Rousseff’s policies could personal diplomacy is jump-start economic growth and address the nation’s social and economic challenges. Her needed to work around unabashed pro-business opponent, Aécio Neves, Brazil’s foreign policy came within two percentage points of beating her. Since then, her popularity has plummeted; establishment, which according to a poll taken in March, 62 percent of those interviewed rated Rousseff’s government as sees relations with the "bad" or "terrible," while only 13 percent United States as a zero- considered the government “great” or “good.”2 sum game. A series of protests this spring in Brazil’s main cities drew millions of people to the streets It may be too late to repair the relationship with demanding Rousseff’s impeachment. Although Brazil to the extent that it can have a meaningful the dissatisfaction appears to be rooted in impact on bilateral interests; however, Obama middle-class anxiety about a flagging economy, can sustain positive momentum from his trip by the protests intensified after allegations that keeping a channel open to Rousseff. This contractors tied to Petrobras paid $800 million in presidential-level personal diplomacy is needed kickbacks to politicians—the vast majority of to work around Brazil’s foreign policy whom are from the president’s left-wing Workers’ establishment, which sees relations with the Party (PT). Unless investigators are able to prove United States as a zero-sum game. Rousseff’s direct knowledge of the kickback schemes, few experts expect the matter to Nothing is more important to both countries than escalate to her impeachment. Nevertheless, the a healthy private sector–led dialogue, which can arrests of the PT’s treasurer and an executive of shape a practical agenda for jump-starting Odebrecht, one of the country’s most important reforms to make them more globally competitive multinational companies, indicate an aggressive, through cooperation with one another. Both independent investigation that is challenging the countries (among others in the region) stand to political establishment and powerful economic benefit from an industry dialogue on what it will interests.3 take to develop more productive energy sectors and attract essential capital and technology.

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Uruguayan Foreign Minister Luis Almagro as its Venezuela: Impending new secretary general in mid-March.8 Almagro has indicated his interest in reviewing the Collapse situation in Venezuela, although his leftist track Venezuela’s corrupt and authoritarian record inspires little confidence within a government, led by the leftist caudillo Nicolás democratic opposition that is hoping for a Maduro, has created depleted international vigorous and neutral arbiter to insist on fair reserves, food lines, power outages, soaring elections. homicide rates, crumbling infrastructure, US federal law enforcement agencies and fraudulent elections, political polarization, and prosecutors—which enjoy absolute increased repression. The government’s rising independence—are expected to continue to unpopularity even among poor Venezuelans is document violations of US narcotrafficking and compounded by infighting between factions led money laundering laws, bring formal by Maduro, who is seen as a puppet of Havana, indictments, and impose sanctions against and National Assembly President Diosdado officials of the Venezuelan government. Such Cabello, who is cited by a US Justice Department measures will expose the regime’s unparalleled source as a drug kingpin.5 criminality and complicate efforts to seek an Traditional opposition leaders, with the accommodation with the ruling party. encouragement of the US State Department, look to national assembly elections scheduled for December 6 as a means to secure political Mexico: Stubborn Security leverage and defuse the crisis.6 Followers of the jailed Leopoldo López, a charismatic young Crisis Undermines Reforms politician who has emerged a de facto leader of the opposition, are skeptical of increasingly Perhaps no country is more important to US unfair elections and prefer to challenge the security than Mexico, which is recording slow but regime’s legitimacy through demonstrations, civil steady economic progress while grappling with disobedience, and international engagement. lawlessness fueled by international drug Although the chance of fair elections is slim, the trafficking. Mexican President Enrique Peña Obama administration has pledged to become Nieto won high praise for winning a political more active in regional diplomacy to press for consensus behind a series of major economic and freer and fairer parliamentary elections, social reforms—notably a “modernization” of the including international monitoring. country’s underperforming energy sector. In fact, the tax, education, and energy reforms were Current US foreign policy is to encourage hardly transformative; but they were considered a stability, whatever the costs. Ongoing US law step in the right direction and as far as the ruling enforcement investigations into the Maduro- party would allow the president to go. Cabello regime’s complicity in narcotrafficking have complicated the State Department’s Frankly, Peña Nieto has been unable to overcome wrongheaded efforts to normalize relations with the entrenched interests of the Institutional the increasingly dictatorial and criminal regime. Revolutionary Party (PRI), which reclaimed the Department Counselor Thomas Shannon has met presidency after a 12-year hiatus and still twice with Maduro in Caracas in recent months; operates as a corporatist political machine. Peña his meeting in Haiti in mid-June with accused Nieto’s clout has been weakened by persistent narcotrafficker Diosdado Cabello demoralized allegations of personal corruption that have many in the internal opposition who concluded damaged his credibility with the electorate.9 that Washington was making a pact with the Unfortunately, the security issues that Peña Nieto worst elements of the regime.7 consciously ignored after coming to power now Dealing with Venezuela will be an early test for threaten to undermine his domestic reforms and the new leadership of the Organization of his legacy. Nearly halfway through his six-year American States (OAS)—which elected former term, Peña Nieto does not appear to have a

3 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE comprehensive strategy for dealing with Mexico’s growth is unusually dependent on the lawlessness in many parts of the country. The performance of the US economy, which has been September 2014 disappearance of 43 college lackluster despite some signs of recovery. students at the hands of local elected officials Frankly, both countries stand to benefit from linked to narcotraffickers was a wake-up call to more free-market economic policies and fiscal the nation. In April, narcotraffickers’ coordinated discipline. The two nations also share the attacks on the army and local businesses in the challenge of transnational organized crime. US state of Jalisco—home to Mexico’s second-largest demand fuels the illegal groups that are waging city, Guadalajara—offered more evidence that an increasingly brazen challenge to Mexico’s improvised law enforcement offensives are no relatively weak institutions. Greater substitute for a national strategy for imposing the accountability and more candid dialogue about rule of law against organized crime.10 these challenges are needed to restore the law enforcement and intelligence cooperation that is Forty million Mexicans voted in midterm indispensable to dealing with this chronic elections on June 7, giving the ruling PRI a security threat. narrow working majority in the 500-member Chamber of Deputies (the lower house of Congress of the Union). The election results represent a mixed bag for the ruling PRI. Colombia: Foundering Although the PRI-led coalition will be able to manage votes on the budget and key national Peace Process policies, the outcome does not give Peña Nieto the political momentum he needs to salvage his Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has ambitious agenda of economic and social staked his political career on peace talks with the reforms. Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) guerrillas, winning reelection a year ago The PRI losses may be attributed to Peña Nieto’s by rallying a skeptical public to support a plummeting approval ratings, and party negotiated settlement to the 50-year conflict. chieftains and state governors may seek to However, after a mid-April FARC ambush killed distance themselves from the once-omnipotent 11 and wounded 20 soldiers and a retaliatory president and prepare to choose a successor in strike by the armed forces killed a FARC 2018. The news for other political parties is not commander, Santos is struggling to salvage the positive either, as the National Action Party Havana-based talks. Polls show that at least (PAN) continues its disorganized slide in national three-fourths of Colombians will never agree to politics after holding the presidency from 2000 to key FARC demands, which include an amnesty 2012. The PAN’s poor performance may invite a for former guerrilla commanders.12 challenge for leadership of the party, which will either produce an organization that is more The FARC’s direct participation in drug competent and coherent or one that is even more trafficking—garnering an estimated $600 million divided. in annual income—is a major obstacle to a negotiated end to its criminal activities. In recent In the meantime, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, years, Santos has considered characterizing drug the PRI’s most bitter critic, has splintered the trafficking as a political crime, making it eligible vote on the left, which ironically secures the for an amnesty; ending the spraying of coca farms ruling party’s left flank for the foreseeable future. with the common herbicide glyphosate; and But, his nascent MORENA party’s takeover of protecting FARC kingpins from pending US Mexico City may presage unrest in the capital indictments and extradition requests.13 city, underscoring the image of instability in the nation as a whole. The insecurity in the country, Several months ago, Secretary of State John anxiety in the economy, and disarray in all of the Kerry appointed former Assistant Secretary of national parties may force Mexicans to look for State Bernard Aronson, who played a critical role unconventional solutions that challenge the in ending the Nicaraguan and Salvadoran political order.11 conflicts while serving in the George H. W. Bush administration, as a special representative to the

4 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE peace process. Aronson is a tough, clearheaded little real opportunity for US business; the Cuban negotiator who will counsel against ceding too government and Obama’s supporters have stoked much ground to the FARC on issues impacting expectations to build momentum for the lifting of US security. the US embargo.17 However, strong majorities in the US House of Representatives have voted in Even before this current challenge to the peace recent weeks to block concessions to Cuba, and talks, Colombian polls found that Santos was the intractable behavior of the regime will only losing support due to slumping economic and harden these positions.18 social conditions (for example, educational performance and health care) and lost Even if Cuba were to become democratic competitiveness in the global marketplace.14 He overnight or if Congress were to vote to lift the has three more years in office to make progress embargo, specific conditions of normal trade on a domestic agenda, and it remains to be seen relations have to be met before Cuba could be how much more political capital he will invest in integrated into the global trading system. Routine the flagging peace process. trade with Cuba cannot resume until the executive branch, in close consultation with

Congress, undertakes serious negotiations with the Cuban government and until Cuba complies Cuba: “Normalization” of with the preconditions imposed by the World Trade Organization and International Labor Ties with Unyielding Organization. Dictatorship Incidentally, although President Obama argued that this opening to the Cuban regime would President Obama’s decision last December to encourage other countries in the region to help us offer diplomatic recognition to the Cuban with human rights and other issues, this has not dictatorship may have won him a footnote in happened. Despite relentless repression in Cuba, history, but it is unlikely to yield meaningful the region has expressed virtually no concern. reform because it bolstered a stubborn regime. Indeed, the United States has joined the region’s Worse yet, his decision to normalize political silent chorus. relations unilaterally surrenders potential leverage over a post-Castro transition.15 What’s worse, the new secretary general of the OAS, the obscure Uruguayan leftist Luis Almagro, Rather than reciprocating with measures to ease has said that the OAS owes the Castro regime an its repression, the regime has responded by apology for suspending it in 1962. And this making additional demands—reparations, the spring, following a series of votes on human return of Guantanamo, the lifting of US rights violations in Syria and Iran, the US envoy restrictions on trade and travel—while continuing in Geneva complained bitterly that Brazil had to deny 11 million Cubans their fundamental “aligned itself with the world’s worst human human rights. Indeed, Havana’s insistence on rights violators.”19 restricting the normal diplomatic functions (traveling the country and meeting freely with civil society) has stalled an agreement on opening reciprocal embassies, which Obama hoped to Central America: Cycle of announce at the Summit of the Americas in April. The removal of Cuba from the “terrorist sponsor” Corruption, Insecurity, and list last month has yet to ease Havana’s resistance, because Castro probably expects Poverty Obama to give more ground to get an embassy.16 Notorious government corruption scandals in Several US executive agencies moved quickly to Guatemala and Honduras have destabilized a soften restrictions on transactions and travel to subregion already beset by weak economies and Cuba. Cuba’s bankrupt, command economy and even weaker democratic institutions. backward infrastructure, though, will generate Spontaneous and persistent demonstrations led

5 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE to the resignation of Guatemala’s vice president unaccompanied alien children were detained by and forced governments in both countries to or surrendered to US authorities after entering scramble to quell popular outrage.20 The region is US territory illegally. The administration has already hard pressed to deal with corruption and argued that lower numbers this year show that its violence sown by well-financed drug cartels. The programs to discourage illegal migration have recent instability may spur more accountable worked. A much more apparent explanation is government in the long run, but the crisis that Mexico is doing a more effective job atmosphere today may also undermine economic detaining and deporting Central Americans growth and distract authorities from anti–drug before they reach the US border.24 enforcement efforts. Governments of the Northern Triangle In El Salvador, the collapse of the government’s countries—El Salvador, Honduras, and ill-fated gang truce has led to a dramatic spike in Guatemala—and the Obama administration are violence. Officials there recorded a total of 635 seeking $1 billion in FY 2016 to treat the root homicides in May, making it the deadliest month causes that spur mass emigration. A decade ago, since the end of El Salvador’s civil war in 1992. the United States initiated the Central America- Initially, the truce appeared to directly impact Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement violent crime, significantly reducing the murder because US policy makers recognized these rate between 2012 and 2014.21 However, the countries as economic partners. But, in the sharp increase in disappearances and the absence of US leadership in the years since, those discovery of hidden mass graves with hundreds of governments have failed to retool their victims of gang violence caused many in El economies to take advantage of their access to the Salvador to question the government’s wisdom US market to create growth and jobs. Today, they for pursuing the gang truce in the first place. are looking for US aid to treat the symptoms of poverty and insecurity. In Guatemala, senior government officials— including the vice president, the president of the It can be argued that the United States has an Bank of Guatemala, current and former heads of obligation to help Central America deal with the the national tax office, and other high-ranking problems of poverty, drug trafficking, and gangs, politicians and cabinet ministers—have been or illegal migration will continue to overwhelm accused of skimming hundreds of millions of our border security measures. However, the US dollars in customs revenues through a kickback Congress appears to recognize that any US aid scheme. Guatemalans have reacted to the scandal must be closely monitored and conditioned to with massive street protests calling for the ensure that it has a positive impact and does not resignations of President Otto Pérez Molina and fuel corruption. A potential, relatively low-cost others.22 contribution from the US government would be using existing authority to sanction corrupt In Honduras, President Juan Orlando Hernández officials, revoking US visas and freezing the assets admitted that his 2013 campaign received money of individuals who have abused their public trust. from businessmen connected with a recently discovered scandal involving the country’s social security system. A Honduran congressional report released this month claims that these China’s Growing Influence individuals gave as much as $280,000 in political donations to the president’s party. Hernández in Latin America claims he was not aware of the money’s origins; however, his crisis management attempts have China’s demand for raw materials and investment not silenced calls for his resignation.23 opportunities has made it an active partner for commodity-rich nations in the Americas. Ten The vulnerability of the US southwest border was years ago when it ventured into the Western dramatically exposed as a wave of illegal Hemisphere, Beijing made a conscious effort not immigrants—many of them children—crossed our to be identified with anti-American populists in border during a five-month period beginning in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and elsewhere. March 2014. Overall in FY 2014, 51,000

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Today, however, Washington’s apparent The PRC’s mercantile business style has been indifference has led the People’s Republic of unhealthy for Latin America. For huge China (PRC) to disregard US concerns. The PRC infrastructure projects, the PRC insists on has kept the foundering authoritarian regime in bringing in thousands of Chinese laborers rather Venezuela afloat by providing $56 billion in than hiring locally. And its appetite for raw desperately needed loans ($38 million in just the materials provides a windfall to governments but last six years) and selling armored vehicles (used stunts the industrial development of its partners. in the crackdown on protests last year) and For example, the windfall from a commodity transport aircraft to the military.25 boom starting 10 years ago, fueled by Chinese consumption, buoyed the Brazilian economy and The PRC also conspired with Venezuelan filled the government’s coffers. As a result, then- strongman Hugo Chávez to muscle away oil that president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva was under used to be consumed in the US market. In recent no pressure to invest his considerable political years, Venezuela’s exports to the United States capital in a reform agenda that most experts say dipped below 800,000 barrels a day, nearly half was needed to make Brazil more competitive and the quantity reaching the US market when unlock its full potential. By 2012, Brazil’s Chávez took power in 1999. On the other hand, commodity exports accounted for 14 percent of Venezuelan exports to the PRC have grown to as gross domestic product, compared to 6 percent in much as 600,000 barrels a day, up from a mere the 1990s. When Chinese demand for 40,000 barrels a day in 2005. commodities and other raw materials slumped dramatically, it hit the Brazilian economy hard, with growth sliding from 7.5 percent in 2010 to The United States must 2.3 percent in 2013 and into recession last not cede its natural summer.27 market to any country— Trading with the PRC has another downside: predatory business practices. During the recent least of all a rival power visit of Premier Li Keqiang to Brazil, Rousseff joined him in heralding the signature of 35 that does not operate economic agreements. R. Evan Ellis, research fairly and transparently professor of Latin American studies at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, as expected within a agrees that the visit confirms that the PRC takes Brazil seriously as an economic partner. rules-based trading However, Ellis also argues that by providing $10 system. billion in credit to the ailing state-owned oil company, Petrobras, the PRC is taking advantage of Brazil’s economic crisis to expand its foothold According to a January study by American in the country’s energy sector.28 Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation, An even starker example, according to Ellis, is a the PRC has investments and construction Chinese firm’s purchase of four ships from a projects totaling $108 billion in South America, Brazilian mining company that had hoped to use with the largest investment inventory ($15.6 the vessels to transport iron ore to the Chinese billion) in Peru and the largest number of market; that plan fell apart when the PRC barred construction projects (totaling $18 billion) in those ships access to its ports. So the Brazilian Venezuela. The PRC’s two-way trade with Latin company is left selling off its fleet to a Chinese America has soared from around $10 billion in entity at fire-sale prices and borrowing another 2000 to $263 billion in 2014, according to $4 billion from a PRC bank in a bid to survive.29 statistics from the PRC’s Ministry of Commerce.26 In January, PRC President Xi Jinping predicted Ellis scrutinizes other transactions trumpeted by that his country’s trade with and investment in Li and Rousseff and concludes that the PRC made the region would both double in the next decade. off like a bandit. In an essay on the Trans-Pacific

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Partnership, Ellis writes, “Although China may not seek to impose its political will in the Pacific About the Author through military means, its state-supported Roger F. Noriega, a former US ambassador to predatory capitalism sows insecurity, as its the Organization of American States and assistant government coordinates with Chinese-state secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs owned enterprises to force open foreign markets (2001–05), is a visiting fellow at AEI and and to appropriate technologies and production managing director of Visión Américas LLC, a processes.”30 Washington, DC–based firm with US and foreign The United States must not cede its natural clients. market to any country—least of all a rival power that does not operate fairly and transparently as expected within a rules-based trading system. US companies must use their decades of experience Notes trading with and constructively investing in Latin America and the Caribbean. Regarding security 1. Paulo Sotero, “In Trouble at Home, Rousseff issues, Washington policymakers must have a Travels to Washington,” Huffington Post, June 23, serious conversation with counterparts in the 2015, www.huffingtonpost.com/paulo-sotero/in- PRC to ensure that they understand US concerns. trouble-rousseff-seeks_b_7639204.html. 2. Roger F. Noriega and Felipe Trigos, Can Brazil Overcome Economic Malaise and Scandal? American Enterprise Institute, April 22, 2015, www.aei.org/publication/can-brazil-overcome- Conclusion economic-malaise-and-scandal/. 3. Blake Schmidt and Raymond Colitt, “CEOs from The foregoing discussion is by no means an Odebrecht and Andrade Gutierrez Detained in exhaustive treatment of the challenges Brazil’s Petrobras Scandal,” Miami Herald, June 19, confronting the Americas. For example, the 2015, www.miamiherald.com/news/business flagging economy in Chile, one of the beacons of /article24988411.html. free-market economics, is a matter of serious 4. Paulo Trevisani, “Brazilian Senate Passes concern. And Argentina, whose current Controversial Fiscal Austerity Bill,” Wall Street government has flouted the rules internationally Journal, May 26, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/ and become increasingly authoritarian at home, brazilian-senate-passes-controversial-fiscal- will hold presidential elections this year that will austerity-bill-1432689227. present an opportunity to reconstruct bilateral 5. José de Córdoba and Juan Forero, “Venezuelan relations with a serious country. Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub,” Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2015, Although the Americas have frequently been a www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelan-officials- back-burner issue for US policymakers, the lack suspected-of-turning-country-into-global-cocaine- of attention has never been out of sheer neglect. hub-1431977784. And the results of a negligent policy is plain to 6. Brianna Lee, “Venezuela Begins Countdown to see, where US friends and even a few adversaries Parliamentary Elections,” International Business have failed to get the attention they deserve. Times, June 23, 2015, www.ibtimes.com/venezuela- President Obama’s visit with his Brazilian begins-countdown-parliamentary-elections- counterpart is perhaps his last chance to initiate a 1979569. constructive dialogue about the challenges in a 7. Roger F. Noriega, “Time to Take a Stand on hemisphere the United States calls home. If not, Venezuela,” The American, June 16, 2015, he will leave a legacy of neglect to his successor. www.aei.org/publication/time-to-take-a-stand-on- venezuela/. 8. “Almagro se ofrece a facilitar el diálogo en Venezuela” [Almagro Offers to Facilitate Dialogue in Venezuela], El Universal, June 17, 2015,

www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150617/

8 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE almagro-se-ofrece-a-facilitar-el-dialogo-en- 19. Jamil Chade, “For U.S., Brazil ‘Aligned’ Itself venezuela. with Human Rights Violators at the U.N.,” Estadâo, 9. Roger F. Noriega, “Mixed Bag from Mexico’s May 4, 2015, http://interamericansecuritywatch. Sunday Elections,” AEIdeas blog, June 8, 2015, com/?p=24050. www.aei.org/publication/mixed-bag-from-mexicos- 20. Peter Maffitt, “Demonstrations against sunday-elections/. Corruption Spread across Central America,” 10. Roger F. Noriega, “Brazen Terrorism Heating Up Breitbart, June 16, 2015, www.breitbart.com/ Mexico’s Drug War,” AEIdeas blog, May 15, 2015, texas/2015/06/16/demonstrations-against- www.aei.org/publication/brazen-terrorism-heating- corruption-spread-across-central-america/. up-mexicos-drug-war/. 21. José R. Cárdenas, “Washington's $1 Billion 11. Alfredo Corchado, “Mexico’s Midterm Election Central America Challenge,” Foreign Policy, March Weakens Traditional Parties’ Power,” Dallas 24, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/24/ Morning News, June 9, 2015, washingtons-1-billion-central-america-challenge/. www.dallasnews.com/news/metro/20150608- 22. “Protestas por casos de corrupción presionan a mexicos-midterm-election-weakens-traditional- presidente de Guatemala” [Protests against parties-power.ece. Corruption Put Pressure on President of 12. Andres Schipani, “Colombia to Persist with Guatemala], El Universo, June 14, 2015, Peace Talks Despite Attacks,” Financial Times, June www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2015/06/14/nota/49 14, 2015, www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f9cc4ac-1291- 59732/protestas-casos-corrupcion-presionan- 11e5-8cd7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dvEdsfWS. presidente-guatemala. 13. “Se abre debate por conexión de narcotráfico y 23. “'Mi campaña recibió dinero de la corrupción': delito político de Farc” [Debate Starts Over Political presidente de Honduras” [“My Campaign Received Crimes and the FARC’s Narcotrafficking Money from Corruption”: President of Honduras], Connection], El Tiempo, December 3, 2014, El Tiempo, June 3, 2015, www.eltiempo.com/ www.eltiempo.com/politica/proceso-de- mundo/latinoamerica/presidente-honduras- paz/narcotrafico-como-delito-politico- admite-que-su-campana-recibio-fondos-vinculados- debate/14923376. a-corrupcion/15883500. 14. “El 64% desaprueba desempeño de Santos como 24. Roger F. Noriega, Securing the Border: presidente: encuesta Gallup” [64% Disapprove of Understanding and Addressing the Root Causes of the Performance of Santos as President: Gallup], Central American Migration to the United States,” Noticias Caracol, April 30, 2015, testimony before the US Senate Committee on www.noticiascaracol.com/colombia/el-64- Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, 114th desaprueba-desempeno-de-santos-como- Cong., March 25, 2015, www.aei.org/publication/ presidente-encuesta-gallup. securing-the-border-understanding-and- 15. Roger F. Noriega, Obama’s Gambit addressing-the-root-causes-of-central-american- Misunderstands Cuban Reality, American migration-to-the-united-states/. Enterprise Institute, February 11, 2015, 25. R. Evan Ellis, “Strategic Insights: The China- www.aei.org/publication/obamas-gambit- CELAC Summit: Opening a New Phase in China- misunderstands-cuban-reality/. Latin America-U.S. Relations?” Strategic Studies 16. Alan Yuhas, “Opening of US and Cuba Embassies Institute, January 27, 2015, Still On Hold but Negotiators 'Optimistic,'” The www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/a Guardian, May 22, 2015, rticles/The-China-CELAC-Summit/2015/01/27. www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/22/us- 26. American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage cuba-embassies-negotiators-optimistic. Foundation, “China Global Investment Tracker,” 17. Nora Gámez Torres, “Cuba Investments Are a www.heritage.org/research/projects/china-global- High Risk for U.S. Companies, New Report Says,” investment-tracker-interactive-map. Miami Herald, June 22, 2015, 27. Noriega and Trigos, Can Brazil Overcome www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/ Economic Malaise and Scandal?. americas/cuba/article25183966.html. 28. R. Evan Ellis, “Li Keqiang’s Latin America Trip: 18. “House of Representatives Approves Ban of U.S. More Not Different,” The Manzella Report, May 23, Exports to Cuban Military,” Customs Today, June 6, 2015, http://manzellareport.com/index.php/ 2015, www.customstoday.com.pk/house-of- world/998-li-keqiang-s-latin-america-trip-more- representatives-approves-ban-of-us-exports-to- not-different. cuban-military/. 29. Ibid. 30. Ibid.

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