THE WORLD BANK Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop Report 2008

Cover Photo: Arne Hoel / World Bank The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or © 2008 The World Bank Group all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of The World Bank its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. 1818 H Street NW Washington DC, 20433 For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions http://www.copyright.com/. expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not www.worldbank.org/socialdevelopment guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, www.worldbank.org/sdcc THE WORLD BANK denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any [email protected] judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 4 Table of Contents Table of Contents 5

Realizing Synergies between Mitigation and Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses...... 69 Adaptation...... ……………………………………….…53 Table of Contents Speakers and Participants The Development-Adaptation Continuum...... ….……55 Speakers...... ….87 The Role of Social Policy in Climate Action…………...... …56 List of External Participants...... …105

List of World Bank Participants...... …110 GOVERNANCE AND CLIMATE ACTION...... 59

Voice and Representation...... 60 Resources Linking the Global and the Local...... ……………………….60 Resources...... 116 Social Learning and Adaptive Policymaking...... …..…61 Workshop Agenda...... ……...... 119 Towards a Framework for Analysis...... ………..…..…62 Endnotes...... ……...... 125

Acknowledgements..……………………………………….………7 PUTTING POOR PEOPLE FIRST: WHO IS AFFECTED WAY FORWARD: INTEGRATING SOCIAL DIMENSIONS AND HOW?...... 33 INTO CLIMATE POLICY……...... …....…65 Foreword ...... ………….………...8 Indigenous Peoples...... 34 Advancing a “No-Regrets” Approach to Development ....…65 Executive Summary...... …9 Gender...... ………………...... 39 Reframing the Issue...... ……...…65

The Urban Poor...... ……..…..…41 Improving the Adaptive Capacity of the Poor……...... ……66 Report of the Workshop People in Rural Drylands...... 42 An Emerging Policy Research Agenda…...... ……...…66 INTRODUCTION...... ….13 Bringing Stakeholders Together for Greater Social Justice………...... …..67 SOCIAL DYNAMICS, COHESION AND RESILIENCE...45 FRAMING THE ISSUE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIAL JUSTICE...... 17 Conflict and Human Security...... ……………….……45

The Global Challenge...... …17 Migration...... …………...... …48

Climate Change and Social Justice...... ……….…….20

Fairness in Mitigation and Adaptation...... 23 MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION: TOWARDS PRO-POOR CLIMATE ACTION...... 51 A Rights-Based Approach to Climate Change...... 26 Social Impacts of Mitigation...... …………….……52 Acknowledgements 7

Acknowledgements guidance was provided by Steen Jorgensen (Director, SDV). Andrew Norton (Lead Specialist and Team Leader, Social Analysis, Gender and Policy, SDV) initiated SDV’s This is the report of an international workshop on the Social work on the Social Dimensions of Climate Change, and Dimensions of Climate Change, held in Washington, DC by commissioned background papers for the workshop the World Bank’s Social Development Department (SDV) on from the International Institute for Environment and March 5-6, 2008. The workshop would not have been possible Development (IIED), on drylands and urban adaptation without the efforts of a large number of people within SDV. issues; and the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), Significant contributions to workshop organization were on conflict and migration. provided by: Greicy Amjadi, Carina Bachofen, Mitos Benedicto, Joyce Chinsen, Danielle Christophe, Rasmus Heltberg, Steen This report was written by Robin Mearns (Lead Specialist Jorgensen, Megumi Makisaka, Carmen Martinel, Andrew and Team Leader, Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Norton, Navin Rai, Nicolas Perrin, David Post, and Salam Syed. SDV) and Caroline Kende-Robb (Sector Manager, SDV), with substantial contributions from Carina Bachofen, A full list of workshop participants, and details of speakers, Gernot Brodnig, Edward Cameron, Megumi Makisaka, and discussants, and session chairs, is provided at the end of Andrew Norton (all SDV). Numerous individuals provided this report. While we cannot single out by name all those valuable comments on earlier drafts of the report, including who made important contributions, we are particularly Nilufar Ahmad, Nina Bhatt, Maria Donoso Clark, Maitreyi grateful to the keynote speakers – Bob Watson (Chief Das, Andrea Liverani, Radhika Srinivasan, Dorte Verner, Scientist, Department for Environment and Rural Affairs, Per Wam and Carolyn Winter (all World Bank), Hans Olav Government of the UK), Rt. Hon. Him Campbell (former Ibrekk (NORAD) and Ellen Wratten (DFID). Prime Minister of Canada and former Secretary General Financial support for the workshop from the UK of the Club of Madrid), Her Excellency Dunya Maumoon Department of International Development (DFID) is (Deputy Foreign Minister, Republic of the Maldives), Sheila gratefully acknowledged. As donors to the Trust Fund for Watt-Cloutier (former Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference), Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development and Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki (former Prime Minister of Niger, (TFESSD), the Governments of Norway and Finland have current Executive Director of Rural Hub, Africa) – for setting supported many of SDV’s follow-up activities on the Social the scene so powerfully. Many thanks also to Esther Mwaura- Dimensions of Climate Change. Muiri (Founder and Director, GROOTS Kenya), Atiq Rahman (Executive Director, Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies) Final versions of most of the papers presented in the and Rebecca Adamson (President, First Peoples Worldwide) workshop will appear in: Robin Mearns and Andrew Norton for their invaluable support. (editors), Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World. Washington, DC: The Special thanks are due to Kristalina Georgieva (Acting Vice World Bank, New Frontiers of Social Policy Series. President, Sustainable Development Network, The World Bank) for her active support and participation. Overall 8 Foreword Executive Summary 9

Foreword Climate change alters the context of this work and thus Executive Summary alleviation efforts, threatening to unravel many of the demands new approaches, policies, and tools to help development gains made in recent decades. Climate change has developing countries meet the challenges of reconciling the potential to undermine the existence of many of the world’s For too long global warming has been viewed as tomorrow’s In March 2008, the World Bank convened an international climate action with the development and growth agenda. poorest and most vulnerable people, lacking the financial, problem. The overwhelming evidence now suggests that workshop on the social dimensions of climate change, which technical, human and institutional resources to adapt. Existing climate change exacerbates existing development challenges, For many years, the Bank has been a focal point for brought together government representatives, leaders of forms of vulnerability are compounded by climate change- further exposing the vulnerability of the poor, and pushing financing on climate change, and is today a major lender Indigenous Peoples, NGO representatives and academia. The related risks such as increased water stress, food insecurity those living on the margins closer to the edge. For those on renewable energy and energy efficiency. We are also main aim of the workshop was to identify and discuss impacts resulting from droughts, desertification, new health risks, and most at risk, climate change is a crisis today. The rights, at the forefront of developing the carbon market. The of climate change through a social lens, including potential increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. interests and needs of those affected must take center stage, newly adopted Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) and negative impacts of the emerging climate policy architecture. as an issue of global social justice. Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change Building on the platform created by the workshop, efforts are Shifting the Global Debate (SFDCC) enhances our capacity to facilitate demonstration, now being made to galvanize an international peer-learning Workshop participants stressed the need to supplement the This report, from the World Bank’s international workshop deployment and transfer of low carbon technologies; network to take this agenda forward through advocacy, policy current emphasis on ecosystem and infrastructure impacts on the Social Dimensions of Climate Change, held in and increases our focus on building climate resilience in analysis and operational work. with a perspective on social systems and dynamics. Much Washington DC March 5-6th 2008, provides voice to those vulnerable nations. discussion centered on how we should analyze the social Climate Change – a Global Challenge most at risk and establishes the basis for a compelling dimensions of climate change, and what this would mean for As a result of the March 2008 workshop, the Bank is now While significant uncertainties remain, there is increasing research and policy agenda on the social dimensions of diagnosing problems and framing pro-poor, socially accountable pioneering work designed to promote socially inclusive, consensus on the scope and drivers that shape global climate climate change. forms of climate action. Developing a framework for analysis climate resilient policies and operations. change. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate emerged as another priority for knowledge deepening, with Change (IPCC) concluded that climate change is not only many participants considering it important to further our Our goal at the World Bank is to help developing countries to I am confident that the innovative global agenda that this accelerating but has been induced by human activity. Without understanding of the dynamics of power and vulnerability realize the promise of sustainable development through the workshop has launched will lead to a holistic analysis of significant action, the IPCC warns, global surface temperature under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Key elements of such progressive achievement of the Millennium Development climate change impacts on human and social systems, could rise to 4-5ºC, with severe attendant impacts. The IPCC a framework would likely include assets, livelihoods, power, Goals. Our vision is to contribute to an inclusive and increase our understanding of vulnerability, and strengthen highlighted five particular reasons for concern: risks to unique institutions, vulnerability and resilience. sustainable globalization – to overcome poverty, enhance our capacity to build social justice, accountability and equity and threatened ecosystems such as coral reefs; risks of extreme into climate policy. growth with care for the environment and create individual weather events; the uneven distribution of impacts, meaning Redefining Vulnerabilities opportunity and hope. Katherine Sierra that some groups of people will be more immediately vulnerable But in all geographic settings that are highly exposed to Vice President, Sustainable Development than others; aggregate impacts, implying that vulnerabilities climate hazards, people are differently vulnerable, whether The World Bank will increase over time; and finally the risk of significant ‘tipping as a result of their sources of livelihood, levels of income points’ or threshold effects in the global climate system that and asset holdings, social class, gender, age, ethnicity, could force the pace of change by orders or magnitude. caste, access to public support, or ability temporarily or permanently to migrate in search of economic opportunities. Climate change is a phenomenon with pervasive and far- Just as levels and forms of vulnerability to the effects of climate reaching social, economic, environmental, and political change vary, so too does the capacity for societies to adapt repercussions. The IPCC’s assessment and other analyses to the changes that they will face. The adaptive capacity of have highlighted the potential negative impacts for poverty 10 Executive Summary Executive Summary 11

developing countries is generally constrained by the limited adaptation. In a similar vein, while mitigation necessitates • Social Dynamics – Consequences of Climate Change contextualized within global political debates. Social availability of technology, weak institutional capacity, low levels global analysis and global collective action, all adaptation is for Social Cohesion and Resilience: Climate change safety nets and other mechanisms for social protection of education, and inadequate financial resources. necessarily local. Appropriate forms of adaptation support will produce complex social responses and may magnify will be critical both for helping poor people to adapt need to be based on country- and context-specific analysis migration, conflict, crime and violence. If the urgency of and for when adaptation fails. Inclusive and responsive In addition, some segments of society tend to be particularly and to be tailored to suit local conditions. meeting the challenge is met, then there may also be institutions are needed to ensure that the provision of vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their positive effects, in terms of enhanced collaboration critical services (health care, housing, education) can direct and often exclusive dependence on ecosystem goods Emerging Themes and cooperation in the management of environmental adapt to a changing situation. and services. This includes most Indigenous Peoples, given Six inter-related themes emerged from the workshop that systems and social impacts. The potential implications their dependence on natural resources for subsistence and help frame global debate on the social dimensions of climate • Governance and Climate Action – Politics, Power of climate change for social organization and social income purposes. Similarly, women are often at higher risk, change and shape an agenda for research, policy and action: and Voice: Climate change gives rise to formidable cohesion are highlighted as a priority area for as they lack assets and access to resources diminishing their governance challenges at the global, national and local • Equity and Social Justice: The causes and the deepening knowledge and understanding. Little is adaptive capacities. While direct natural resource dependence levels, calling for collective action among nations and consequences of climate change are deeply intertwined known as yet about the implications of climate change is an important element of vulnerability, also the urban poor among groups within societies. Among the critical with global patterns of inequality. Those people who for conflict, human security and state fragility, and this are susceptible to climate change, as they often fall outside questions arising are which actors and institutions need to have contributed least to the causes of climate change, is a priority area for further research. the scope of municipal services and safety nets. be involved, how to give voice to the vulnerable in crafting such as Indigenous Peoples or the inhabitants of low- • Pro-poor Climate Action – Making Climate Action such governance arrangements, and how various forms Policy Challenges lying coastal regions and small island developing states, Work for Poor People: It is imperative that climate action of social accountability can be built in. Governance and Long time horizons, uncertainty, and challenge of coordination are the most vulnerable to its consequences and have is made to work for rather than against the interests of poor institutions powerfully shape adaptive capacity at the among a vast number of decentralized actors involved in the least capacity to adapt. In addition, they also risk people. While undertaking actions to mitigate the causes of national level, and are critical in ensuring that results of climate action point to the importance of developing climate being further marginalized by many of the mitigation climate change (for example, hydropower, biofuels, forest mitigation efforts match intentions. action approaches as a socially inclusive learning process. There measures such as large-scale hydropower schemes, carbon finance), it is vital to strengthen the benefits and is scope for ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ policies and programs that biofuels, or forest carbon schemes. As climate change has become a core challenge for development reduce the potential costs to the poor. In terms of tackling simultaneously help to address existing forms of vulnerability a policy research agenda that focuses more on its economic • Putting Poor People First – Who is Affected and the consequences of climate change, it is important to and provide a foundation for adaptation to future climate and social impacts is called for. First, it will be important How? Many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable build the adaptive capacity and resilience of vulnerable change. In many respects, sound development is the best form to devise best practices for integrating local knowledge people are already feeling the effects of climate change, social groups and the institutions that support them. of adaptation: strong and accountable institutions, effective with scientific knowledge in the formulation of adaptation and future changes are already unavoidable for many This includes the capacity to organize at the local level for delivery of education and health care services, integrated water strategies. While local knowledge has much to offer in terms millions more. A first step in knowing how to help them adaptation, voice priorities and make claims on public resources management, pro-poor agricultural research and of informing adaptation strategies, combining the two has adapt to the inevitable is to understand who is affected policy, and mediate and resolve potential conflicts arising extension, good infrastructure and a diversified economy all proven challenging to date. Second, it will be critical to develop and how. The degree of vulnerability is shaped by over competition for resources. contribute to societal resilience. indicators which can be used to track progress towards livelihood context, gender, age, social class, ethnicity, • Social Policy – Moving from a ‘Residual’ to an achieving results on the social dimensions of climate change. At the same time, trade-offs exist, not least between the and caste. While such knowledge needs to inform Integrated Social Policy Approach: Social policy needs Third, we need to better utilize frameworks and tools for social two main avenues of climate change policy: adaptation and strategic planning for adaptation at all levels from to be brought fully into the picture for effective, pro-poor analysis (e.g. poverty and social impact analysis, participatory mitigation. It has been argued that the more mitigation the global to the local, a common theme is who has the climate action. Climate change provides an opportunity for poverty and vulnerability assessments) when modeling the is undertaken, the less adaptation will be needed – that power, voice and capacity to adapt? an integrated approach to policy development that takes effects of climate change and assessing the impact that policies is, mitigation should be seen as the first and best form of on board both economic and social concerns while being could have on the poorest and most vulnerable. 12 Introduction Introduction 13

Report of the Workshop: Introduction

Climate change now tops the list of major challenges of Climate Change as a contribution and first step facing the international community in the 21st century. towards reframing the global debate. The workshop The International Panel on Climate Change’s landmark brought together community activists, government Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 provided unequivocal representatives, former heads of state, leaders of scientific evidence that emissions from human activity, Indigenous Peoples, representatives of non-governmental particularly burning fossil fuels for energy, are causing organizations, international researchers, and staff of changes to the Earth’s climate1. The Stern Review, the World Bank and other international development published in 2006, examined the economics of this agencies, to focus attention and help shape a global complex phenomenon, a detailed understanding of which agenda on the social dimensions of climate change and is needed to underpin an effective global response2. their implications for effective climate action. Building These and countless other authoritative sources such as on the platform created by the workshop, efforts are now the Human Development Report 2007/20083 all make being made to galvanize an international community clear that there are glaring inequities in the distribution of practice to take this agenda forward through a of responsibility for the causes of climate change and the combination of advocacy, knowledge deepening, and distribution of its impacts among the nations and people policy and operational work on the social dimensions of of the world. It is a fact that poor people in developing climate change. countries bear the brunt of its impacts. Nevertheless, The presentations, panel and plenary discussions during human and social dimensions of climate change have the workshop covered a wide range of topics and involved been so far neglected in the global debate. a diverse array of speakers. Keynote addresses were given In March 2008, the World Bank’s Social Development by Bob Watson, Chief Scientist of the UK Department Department held a workshop on the Social Dimensions for Environment and Rural Affairs and former Chair Scott Wallace / World Bank / World Scott Wallace 14 Introduction Introduction 15

of the IPCC; Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell, former Prime as a forum for the sharing of experiences, methodologies This workshop report is structured as follows. The next Minister of Canada and former Secretary General of the and knowledge, and as a mechanism for coordinating section highlights the key messages emerging from the Club of Madrid; Her Excellency Dunya Maumoon, advocacy on the social dimensions of climate change. workshop, and attempts to synthesize the wide-ranging Deputy Foreign Minister of the Republic of the Maldives; This is particularly important in the period leading up to and thought-provoking discussions that took place. Sheila Watt-Cloutier, former Chair of the Inuit the UNFCCC Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen This is followed by a discussion of future directions and Circumpolar Conference; and Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki, at the end of 2009, at which negotiations are expected to challenges. The report then presents summaries of the former Prime Minister of Niger and current Executive culminate in a strengthened international deal on climate papers and keynote addresses. Brief biographies of the Director of Rural Hub, Africa. action. Periodic updates will be provided on the World speakers, a full list of participants, the workshop agenda, Bank’s Social Development website as this work progresses. and suggested resources, are included in annexes. A set of stocktaking studies, commissioned for the workshop, were presented by authors from the International Institute A program of research and knowledge sharing is also for Environment and Development (IIED) and the Peace continuing, with the overall aim of integrating the social Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) on the implications of dimensions of climate change into the policy debates climate change for agrarian societies in rural drylands, and frameworks of the major international arenas and for urban centers of low- and middle-income countries, actors in the run up to Copenhagen and beyond. This and for conflict and migration. Other presentations by includes new work on rights, forests and climate change, internationally renowned researchers and advocates dealt including mechanisms for expanding benefits to local with the consequences of climate change for Indigenous communities through approaches to reduce emissions Peoples, the linkages with gender, the role of local from deforestation and degradation (REDD); policies institutions in adaptation to climate change, the risks for pro-poor adaptation in urban areas of developing to forest peoples in efforts to reduce emissions from countries; the potential of human rights frameworks to deforestation, and the implications of climate change for energize climate action on a global scale; the application social risk management and social policy. of analytical frameworks around vulnerability, resilience and climate governance to framing policies The workshop provided a platform for launching a continuing and operations to support climate change adaptation program of work on the social dimensions of climate change and to managing the potential social risks associated to be carried out by the World Bank in collaboration with with climate change mitigation; the socio-economic a range of international partners. Follow-up activities costs and benefits of adaptation to climate change; and currently under way include the preparation of an edited developing tools for increasing social accountability in volume on equity and vulnerability in a warming world climate action, such as the use of participatory scenario that will bring together revised versions of the workshop approaches to frame more socially inclusive approaches papers with some additional new research. A global peer to climate change adaptation. learning network is being established by the World Bank 16 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 17

Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice

The Global Challenge temperatures; changing precipitation patterns both temporally and spatially; higher sea levels and storm surges; retreating mountain glaciers; melting of the The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report established a definitive Greenland ice cap and reduced arctic sea ice; more frequent and undeniable consensus in the science of climate change. It extreme weather events such as heat waves; droughts and is now beyond doubt that the composition of the atmosphere floods; and more intense cyclonic events (hurricanes and has changed, leading to changes in the Earth’s climate that typhoons). These are already causing severe damage to a range are projected to continue both globally and regionally. It is of unique and threatened ecosystems such as coral reefs. also known with a high degree of certainty that these changes are mostly due to human activity. Greenhouse gases – chief Evidence shows that the temperature increase across the among them being carbon dioxide – are emitted from many globe is not uniform, and there are significant regional sectors, but most significantly from energy consumption and variations in warming. The increase in extreme events may deforestation. Energy is primarily consumed in the power have the biggest impact and will add pressure on critical generation, transportation, and industry sectors, which systems, such as agriculture, water availability, and together account for over 60 percent of emissions, while transport and energy infrastructure. deforestation and other forms of land-use-change account for around 20 percent of emissions (Figure 1). Water availability in many arid and semi-arid regions is declining, and there is an increased risk of floods and The IPCC also portrayed a vision of how the changing droughts in many regions. The reliability of hydropower climate is already impacting the Earth’s natural systems generation and biomass production is declining. The (Figure 2). The increasing concentration of greenhouse consequences for human health include an increase in gases in the atmosphere has already resulted in warmer

FAST FACT According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” Curt Bank Carnemark / World STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change

Figure 2 Stabilisation levels and probability ranges for temperature increases The figure below illustrates the types of impacts that could be experienced as the world comes into equilibrium with more greenhouse gases. The top panel shows the range of temperatures projected at stabilisation levels between 400ppm and 750ppm CO2e at equilibrium. The solid horizontal lines indicate the 5 - 95% range based on climate sensitivity estimates from the IPCC 20012 and a recent Hadley Centre ensemble study3. The vertical line indicates the mean of the 50th percentile point. The dashed lines show the 5 - 95% range based on eleven recent studies4. The bottom panel illustrates the range of 18 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice impacts expected at different levels of warming. The relationship betweenFraming theglobal Issue: average Climate temperature Change and Social Justice 19 changes and regional climate changes is very uncertain, especially with regard to changes in precipitation (see Box 4.2). This figure shows potential changes based on current scientific literature. Figure 2. Projected Changes Associated with Global Warming. Figure 1: World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Flow Chart 400 ppm CO e 5% 2 95% Sector End Use/Activity Gas 450 ppm CO2e Transportation Road 9.9% 550 ppm CO2e Air 1.6% Rail. Ship, & Transport 1.6% 650ppm CO2e Residential Buildings 9.9% 750ppm CO2e Electricity Alluminum/Non Ferrous Commercial Buildings 5.4% Metals 1.4% Eventual Temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) Unallocated Fuel Combustion 3.5% Machinery 1.0% Pulp, Paper and Printing 1.0% Iron & Steel 3.2% Food and Tabacco 1.0% 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

Other Fuel Carbon Dioxide ENERGY 4.8% Food Falling crop yields in many developing regions Combustion Chemicals Severe impacts Rising number of people at risk from hunger (25 Cement 3.8% Entire regions experience in marginal – 60% increase in the 2080s in one study with major declines in crop yields Industry Other Industry Coal Mining 1.0% Sahel region weak carbon fertilisation), with half of the 5.0% (e.g. up to one third in Africa) increase in Africa and West Asia. T&D Losses 1.9% Rising crop yields in high-latitude developed Yields in many developed regions Fugitive Emissions Oil/Gas Extraction, Refining 6.3% Processing countries if strong carbon fertilisation decline even if strong carbon fertilisation Industrial Processes Deforestation 18.3% Significant changes in water availability (one Afforestation -1.5% study projects more than a billion people suffer Water Reforestation -0.5% water shortages in the 2080s, many in Africa, Land Use Change Small mountain glaciers while a similar number gain water Harvest/Management 2.5% HFCs, PFCs, disappear worldwide – Sea level rise threatens Other -0.6% SF 6 1% potential threat to water major world cities, including Greater than 30% decrease London, Shanghai, New Agriculture Energy Use 1.4% supplies in several areas Methane in runoff in Mediterranean York, Tokyo and Hong Kong Agriculture Soils 6.0% and Southern Africa Agriculture Rice Cultivation 1.4% Livestock & Manure 5.1% Other 0.9% Coral reef ecosystems Possible onset of collapse Nitrous Oxide extensively and of part or all of Amazonian Waste eventually irreversibly rainforest damaged Large fraction of ecosystems unable to maintain current form Landfills 2.0% Wastewater and other waste 1.6% Ecosystems Many species face extinction (20 – 50% in one study)

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Extreme 4 (Source: WRI Notes: All data are for 2000. All calculations are based on CO2 equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials Weather Small increases in hurricane intensity lead to a doubling of from the IPCC, based on a total global estimate of 41,755 Mt.CO2 equivalent. Land use change includes both emissions and Events absorptions.) damage costs in the US

Risk of rapid Risk of weakening of natural carbon absorption and possible increasing climate natural methane releases and weakening of the Atlantic THC change and major Increasing risk of abrupt, large-scale shifts in the Onset of irreversible melting irreversible climate system (e.g. collapse of the Atlantic THC of the Greenland ice sheet impacts and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet)

(Source: HM Treasury, 2006)2

2 Wigley, T.M.L. and S.C.B. Raper (2001): 'Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming', Science 293: 451-454 based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001): 'Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' [Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, et al. (eds.)], Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 3 Murphy, J.M., D.M.H. Sexton D.N. Barnett et al. (2004): 'Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations', Nature 430: 768 - 772 4 Meinshausen, M. (2006): 'What does a 2°C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates', Avoiding dangerous climate change, in H.J. Schellnhuber et al. (eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.265 - 280.

v 20 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 21

Figure 3. The Four Storylines Underpinning IPCC’s Emissions Scenarios the incidence of vector- (malaria, dengue) and water-borne 4-5ºC, with severe attendant impacts. The IPCC, as a (cholera) diseases, higher heat stress mortality, threats large, international committee of scientists that draws its Economic emphasis to nutrition in developing countries, and an increase in credibility from arriving at conclusions by consensus, is deaths due to extreme weather events. While agricultural also inherently conservative. It is widely acknowledged that productivity may increase in some high-latitude regions with likely climate change scenarios may be closer to the upper A1 storyline A2 storyline moderate levels of warming, it is projected to decline virtually than the lower bounds of its range of projections, not least World: market-oriented World: differentiated everywhere in the tropics and sub-tropics, and by as much as because the IPCC may have underestimated the potential for Economy: fastest per capita growth Economy: regionally oriented; lowest 20 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia by as soon step changes leading to significant acceleration in the rate of Population: 2050 peak, then decline per capita growth Regional emphasis Regional as 2020. Adverse impacts on fisheries and ecological systems warming and sea-level rise. Such threshold changes could be Governance: strong regional Population: continuously increasing interactions; income convergence Governance: self-reliance with – especially coral reefs – are widely expected, exacerbating the caused by, for example, even more rapid melting of polar ice Technology: three scenario groups: preservation of local identities loss of global biodiversity. caps or the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere A1FI: fossil intensive Technology: slowest and most from thawing permafrost. A1T: non-fossil energy sources fragmented development Climate change is an issue of inter-generational equity, in that A1B: balanced across all sources actions taken or not taken today will affect future generations. The IPCC developed four storylines characterizing the Climate Change and Social Justice plausible range of projected changes throughout the 21st century in the structure of the world economy, population, Climate change has been described as the defining global B1 storyline B2 storyline governance systems, and technology development (Figure social justice issue of our time. While it raises equity World: convergent World: local solutions 3). Using the best available scientific knowledge of the considerations between generations, it also has powerful Economy: service and information Economy: intermediate growth

implications of these plausible trends for greenhouse gas implications for intra-generational equity. Climate change Global integration based; lower growth than A1 Population: continuously increasing emissions, and how these in turn could influence the world’s brings into sharp relief a vision of a world that is highly Population: same as A1 Governance: local and regional Governance: global solutions to economic, solutions to environmental protection climate systems, the IPCC projected a set of alternative polarized – between heavy greenhouse gas-emitting social and environmental sustainability and social equity scenarios of future changes in global surface temperature countries and resource-poor countries that will suffer the Technology: clean and resource-efficient Technology: more rapid than A2; less (Figure 4). worst consequences. The rich countries of the world are rapid, more diverse than A1/B1 predominantly responsible for climate change, while poor Even under the most optimistic scenario (B1), the world is people in poor countries bear the brunt of its impacts. The already committed, as a result of past emissions, to a likely similarities between this map and the already uneven global Environmental emphasis warming trend of around 1-2ºC by the end of this century. distribution of wealth and well-being are as telling as they are With successful action on mitigation the degree of warming striking (see Figure 5). Climate change threatens to compound (Source: IPCC, 2000)5 could be limited to around 3ºC. Without significant action existing patterns of international inequality. on mitigation, global surface temperature could rise to

FAST FACT FAST FACT According to the IPCC, the current changes in climate are driven mostly by the increase in global temperatures since The retreat of glaciers and large-scale reductions in snow cover observed over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the mid-20th century, and are due to an increase in GHG concentrations stemming from the activities of a rising and the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of river flows in regions supplied by increasingly urbanized global population. melt water from major mountain ranges (e.g., Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes). These regions are currently home to more than one- sixth of the world’s population. 22 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 23

Figure 4. IPCC Projections of Global Surface Warming Resulting from Range of Scenarios However, it is important not to present too stylized a Global Surface warming (o C) dichotomy between the rich and poor worlds. There are middle income (e.g. oil-producing) countries with per -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 capita emissions equal to or higher than those of OECD

90 1900 countries, and highly populous developing countries with sharply rising per capita emissions. Countries in both these categories also include many millions of people who are highly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. While it may appear convenient to characterize climate “ If we are going to say that it is the social justice issue A1B A2 commitment Constant composition B1 20th century 23 change mitigation as being primarily the responsibility of of our generation, then we better start investing in rich countries and adaptation the chief concern of poor social justice. ” countries, things are not quite so simple. Vulnerability to – Andy White YEAR 2000 climate change, viewed first and foremost as a development challenge, cuts across national borders.

Fairness in Mitigation

16 21 21 17 and Adaptation

Article 2 of the 1992 United Nations Framework

2100 Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate B1 system… allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, ensure A1T food production, and allow sustainable economic B2 development’. What constitutes ‘dangerous’ in this A1B context is a value-judgment determined by socio-political Left panel - The chart shows global averages of surface Vertical bars - The vertical bars to the right indicate the A2 processes and informed by constantly evolving scientific, warming (relative to 1980-1999) for three of the scenarios likely range for surface warming, with the bands in the A1FI technical and socio-economic information. But deepening in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, middle indicating the best estimate for all six SRES marker understanding in recent years has moved in the direction A1B and B1. The pink line projects the result of concentrations scenarios at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999. of favoring more rather than less urgent action on being held constant at year 2000 values (IPCC 2000)5. mitigation, and a powerful economic as well as ethical case for doing so has also emerged. (Source: IPCC, 2007)1 24 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 25

Figure 5. Emissions and Vulnerability to Climate Change Taking strong mitigation action is both good economics and consistent with aspirations for growth and development in poor and rich countries. Although many uncertainties remain, and assumptions on discounting and risk aversion strongly affect the results, aggregate estimates of the economic costs of the impacts of unmitigated climate change range from 5-7 percent (if market impacts alone are taken into account) to 11-14 percent of annual GDP (including broader, non-market impacts). The Stern Review2 contrasted these estimates with the expected costs of taking action to cut emissions. The expected costs of reducing emissions consistent with a mid-range stabilization trajectory are in the order of 1 percent of GDP a year, even without taking into account additional economic benefits such as energy access, energy security, or air quality.

In terms of tackling the causes of climate change – or mitigation – a social justice perspective emphasizes the need for an equitable sharing of responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions among nations. This should be based on an acknowledgement of the highly unequal distribution of past, present and projected future emissions among them. This is what lies behind the Kyoto Protocol’s guiding doctrine of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’. While making the transition to a low-carbon economy is necessary in low and middle income countries as well as in the developed world, access to affordable energy for the poor is a prerequisite for poverty reduction and “ We need a long-term global regulatory framework, involving sustainable economic growth. There are also questions regarding Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, all major emitters, with an equitable – and I really stress and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950-2003) the social sustainability of some low-carbon technologies such as equitable – allocation of responsibilities.” hydropower and first-generation biofuels. Taking all these issues – Bob Watson Largest per capita CO2 emitters Highest social and/or agro-economic vulnerability into account, the short-run political challenge in the context of the ongoing UNFCCC negotiations is to decide who should Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest Areas with highest ecological vulnerability social and/or agro-economic vulnerability reduce emissions and by how much.

In terms of tackling the consequences of climate change – or adaptation – a social justice perspective emphasizes that (Source: Adapted from SEG 2007)6 those whose lives and livelihoods are most vulnerable to the 26 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 27

Table 1. Possible Human Rights Implications of Climate Change. consequences of climate change and have contributed the and how those effects are likely to get progressively worse over Natural Impacts of Impacts on Rights least to its causes should receive preferential support. This the coming years. A similar process has also been launched International Conventions Climate Change Human Systems Implicated should be an integral part of and in addition to existing efforts by the Organization of American States (OAS). Together, to reduce poverty and attain the Millenium Development these resolutions have been supported by more than 80 Temperature issues Increased water Life United Nations Universal Declaration Goals. Adaptation measures include long-term planning nations, highlighting the large-scale political will for further insecurity on Human Rights (1945) (e.g. Article 3 for infrastructure (water supply, buildings, transport) and examination of this linkage. Health - “everyone has the right to life, liberty land use (flood management, conservation), streamlining Risks of extreme Increased health risks/ and security of person”). Although a specific human right concerning the environment weather events legislation to avoid mal-adaptation (e.g. removing perverse fatalities Means of subsistence has not yet been elaborated in a binding international International Covenant on Economic incentives caused by farm subsidies, skewed water pricing Threats to unique systems convention, the fundamental right to an environment Changes in livelihoods Adequate standard Social and Cultural rights (1965) (e.g. or inappropriate regulatory frameworks for land-use of living Article 12- “The State Parties...recog- capable of supporting human society and the full enjoyment Changes in precipitation planning), planning for ex-ante disaster risk reduction and Effects on the wider nize the right of everyone to enjoy- patterns and distribution of human rights is recognized, in varying formulations, in economy Self determination ment of the highest attainable stan- ex-post disaster response and recovery, and social policy of water the constitutions of over one hundred states and directly or dard of physical and mental health”). measures including the development of social protection indirectly in several international instruments. Threats to biodiversity Changes in agricultural Water systems (including various forms of personal and asset productivity and food International Covenant on Civil and insurance), adaption of public health priorities, and support Climate change is now accepted as the most immediate and production Culture Political Rights (1966) (e.g. Article 1.2 Sea-level rises, flooding to populations with special needs (including migrants). Such - “in no case may a people be deprived far-reaching threat to the environment. Consequently there and storm surges measures need to be mainstreamed into sector and national Threats to security/ Property of its own means of subsistence”). is a growing concern that global warming will impact the full cohesion economic planning while recognizing the aspirations of local enjoyment of accepted human rights including the right to Adequate and secure Optional Protocol to the International Large scale singularities communities and enabling them to adapt. life; the right to take part in cultural life; the right to use and Effects on human housing Covenant on Civil and Political Rights enjoy property; the right to an adequate standard of living; the settlements, land and property Education Convention on the Elimination of right to food; and the right to the highest attainable standard A Rights-Based Approach All Forms of Discrimination Against to Climate Change of physical and mental health (see table 1). Migration Property Women (1979) (e.g. Article 14 - “State Parties will take into account the A rights-based approach holds considerable promise for Political/public Gender, children’s particular problems faced by rural A persuasive case is beginning to be made that climate change injecting urgency and ambition into global climate action services and indigenous rights women...”) also poses threats to human rights and that the international while safeguarding the most vulnerable in society. By focusing human rights architecture is relevant to addressing climate on equity and social justice, a rights-based approach offers Damage to vital infrastructure Convention on the Rights of the Child change. In March 2008 the United Nations Human Rights both a compelling moral and ethical argument for action and (1989) (e.g. Article 6 - “State Parties Council adopted a Resolution on Human Rights and Climate a more authoritative basis for advocacy. It also helps to give Cultural integrity shall ensure to the maximum possible Change and called on the Office of the High Commissioner voice to vulnerable groups since human rights, by design, extent the survival and development for Human Rights (OHCHR) to conduct a study into the focus on the most vulnerable people on the planet. Moreover, Decline in natural of the child”). systems services relationship between climate change and the full enjoyment by drawing on a body of human rights conventions, shared of human rights. This study, which formed the basis of a international laws, principles and values stretching back more Distribution of full Council debate on the subject in March 2009, provides a than sixty years, a rights-based approach could harness well- impacts (vulnerable will comprehensive and authoritative assessment of how climate established technical, policy and legal instruments in new suffer most) change is already affecting individual people around the world ways to address climate change. There is a great deal of scope, Aggregate demands 28 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 29

This is particularly important in the context of climate highlights the obligations of richer countries both to reduce for example, to examine how upholding important procedural Climate Change as a Human rights – including access to information, decision making change as some of the projected impacts will be difficult if not emissions rapidly and provide adaptation support to poor and justice – could help to promote social inclusion and Rights Issue in the Maldives impossible to remedy and redress. Highlighting the importance countries. Within poor countries, a social justice perspective of adaptation, then, is no excuse for failing to act urgently and highlights the need for priority to be given to the poorest accountability in climate action. “If IPCC projections on sea level rise and associated ambitiously on the issue of mitigation. A balanced approach is and most vulnerable groups in adaptation support, and climate impacts prove to be accurate, a child born in the Perhaps most important of all, a rights-based approach helps needed, paying equal attention to both. for careful attention to be paid to ensuring that vulnerable Maldives today may not have the opportunity to live out to identify duties and obligations. Under international law, groups benefit from rather than being left even worse off her life in the country of her birth. This section has highlighted numerous ways in which governments are required to respect, protect and fulfil their through measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. climate change needs to be viewed through a social justice human rights obligations. In order to respect and protect For much of the world the climate impacts seem like Table 2 offers a way to apply a social justice filter in linking lens. Global inequality in patterns of consumption emerges rights, states must refrain from interfering with people’s abstract threats that lie waiting in a distant future. For the characteristics of climate change to their implications clearly as an intrinsic feature of climate change as a human- enjoyment of their rights. They must also prevent people’s the people of the Maldives the evidence is all around us. for social policy and action. However, the examples given induced phenomenon. It is as relevant to understanding the rights from being violated by third parties (such as by here are merely illustrative rather than exhaustive. A Storm surges and coastal erosion already cause loss of uneven distribution of responsibility for the causes of climate individuals, companies or other countries). In order to fulfil number of them are discussed in further detail in the homes, pose dangers to infrastructure and utilities, and change as to the asymmetrical impacts of climate change. A rights, states must take action to enable the full realization sections to follow. of people’s rights. This could be interpreted as requiring divert limited resources from strategic development to moral and ethical imperative follows from this analysis that states to focus their adaptation measures on the most a cycle of destruction and reconstruction. Rising ocean vulnerable communities within their jurisdiction. temperatures, coupled with the growing acidification, is slowly destroying our prized coral reefs - the very lifeblood It is important that a rights-based approach deal with of our economy. This threatens our tourism and fishing inequities between countries as well as impacts on rights industries, potentially undermining forty percent of our within countries. Those who are immediately vulnerable GDP and more than forty percent of our workforce. This to climate change have contributed little to its causes. would set our development back decades. They also lack the adaptive capacity to deal with its consequences. As a result, rights-based approaches The unprecedented development in the Maldives during advocate for substantial additional resources in support the past three decades means that this generation is the of climate change adaptation, preferably on grant rather most fortunate to have ever lived on the islands. If we than merely concessional financing terms, beyond existing do not act quickly, this generation may also be the most commitments. But a rights-based approach should not be fortunate one that ever will. For in the long term it is viewed as an ‘end of pipe’ instrument, coming into effect not our development but our very existence as an island only when a right is violated, a victim wronged, and an nation that is threatened.” abuser identified. The best approach to human rights is Her Excellency Dunya Maumoon, Deputy Foreign Minister of one that establishes processes to ensure that violations the Republic of the Maldives (Keynote address) never take place.  30 Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice Framing the Issue: Climate Change and Social Justice 31

Table 2. Climate Change, Social Justice and Policy Action Matrix Climate Change Climate Change Social Justice Perspective Implications for Action Social Justice Perspective Implications for Action Characteristics Characteristics

Extreme weather events Poor people tend to be more A range of actions are needed to empower GHG emissions correlate Responsibility for climate change lies Need to build global solidarity and will become more frequent, vulnerable to injury, death and the vulnerable and strengthen their with wealth and growth. primarily with richer people in richer momentum for climate action. countries. with serious implications destitution as a result of extreme resilience in the face of threats from Developed countries have an ethical particularly for coastal weather events. For example, urban extreme weather events, including: obligation to rapidly provide adaptation areas (cyclones, storms, poor in informal slum settlements • Enhanced information to make good support to poor people in poor countries. surges). line in less robust structures, tend choices about location and movement to be unprotected by heavy infrastruc- in the face of weather threats Climate mitigation should not constrain tures defenses, may be invisible, and • Enhanced tenure rights for housing energy access for poor people, or the lacking in access to information. to provide incentives to strengthen growth paths of poor countries. structures Women are frequently more vulner- • Enhanced rights for women to ensure able to death and injury from cy- that they have access to information Climate change impacts The brunt of climate change impacts is There is a compelling need to understand clones and extreme weather events and skills which will aid survival. differ according to people’s borne by poor people in poor countries. the social dimensions of vulnerability (owing to behavioral restrictions on power, wealth and the level They should receive preferential access by examining the assets, knowledge, mobility, restrictive dress codes, lack of dependency on natural to adaptation support. institutions and relationships that of information). resources. different groups have to help them cope Women will be disproportionately with external threats. People can be impacted by climate change. This is more or less vulnerable according to age, ‘Carbon assets’ (trees, peat Poor people’s rights in carbon as- Robust and accountable policy and because social exclusion is strongly ethnicity, caste, gender roles, their sources marshlands, rangelands sets - whether ownership or use and institutional frameworks need to be gendered in ways that increase vulner- of livelihood, ability to access public etc) will be increasingly access rights - are critical to dignity established to protect poor peoples’ rights ability to climate change for women. support or ability to migrate. valued for their carbon and livelihood. in carbon assets and maximize the income sequestration properties in streams they can derive from those assets. Indigenous People are among the poor- An understanding of social difference the struggle to contain and est and most socially excluded people needs to be translated into guarantees that mitigate climate change. globally. They rely on ecosystems par- their enjoyment of fundamental human ticularly prone to the effects of climate rights will not be compromised by climate change including polar regions, humid change impacts. Developed countries Technological innovations and shifts Mitigation measures should be robustly tropics, high mountains, small islands, will increasingly seek to in market incentives in the North analyzed ex ante to ensure that they do costal regions, and semi-arid deserts. mitigate climate change can have rapid and sweeping effects not cause damage to vulnerable people’s through technological in- on the livelihoods of vulnerable livelihoods. Technological innovation novation people in the South (e.g. the move to should also capitalize on local people’s biofuels, and resulting upward pres- knowledge rather than being regarded as a Climate change will Poor people will be most severely Investments in water resources need sure on global food prices). one-way transfer from North to South. worsen water stress in affected as they have less capacity to take account of the specific needs of many parts of the world to extract and store water. poor people, particularly women, and through changes in rain- build on local people’s knowledge and fall patterns, glacial and Women in many contexts will see priorities. snow melt, and rising an increase in their labor burdens as salinity in low-lying they have primary responsibility for coastal areas. collecting water in many parts of the world. 32 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? 33

Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How?

A second common theme emerging from the workshop was the need to put poor people first in the climate change debate. The effects of climate change are already being felt by many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, and future changes are already unavoidable for many millions “ The role of the World Bank is to help amplify the voice more. A first step towards knowing how to help people of the most vulnerable and make sure that it is heard adapt to the inevitable is to understand who is affected in the corridors of power. ” and how. – Kristalina Georgieva At a broad level of generalization, poor people in developing countries are more likely to depend directly on climate- sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing for their livelihoods and are therefore more exposed to the impacts of climate change than are people in the developed world. People living in developing countries are also generally closer to the margin of tolerance to changing precipitation patterns, increased climate variability and extreme weather events than those living in developed countries, and therefore more vulnerable to their effects.

These factors contribute to the challenges of livelihood security facing many of the world’s most vulnerable people. Scott Wallace / World Bank / World Scott Wallace 34 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? 35

therefore to build on peoples’ knowledge and assist in They include pastoralists and agro-pastoralists living in the to climate change. The ways in which formal and informal developing strategies to adapt to changing environmental world’s drylands, vulnerable to increasing climate variability social institutions interact is also thought to have an conditions and address the specific needs of indigenous and changing means of temperature and precipitation. The important bearing on societal resilience to extreme weather communities in managing climate change. inhabitants of low-lying, small island development states events, and possibly to slower-onset changes in climate are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and to the effects of as well. Social policy supporting gender inclusion and Indigenous people account for 5 percent of the world’s coral bleaching on their economically important fishery and freedom of civic associations, for example, combined with population, yet they protect and care for 22 percent of tourism sectors. Fishers and fish processors in coastal zones freedom of access to information and justice, have been the Earth’s surface, 80 percent of remaining biodiversity, “ Indigenous wisdom has its place and strength in guiding are among the most vulnerable groups in many developing observed to improve environmental performance and and 90 percent of cultural diversity on the planet. They and influencing a world that has largely lost its perspective countries, facing the loss of their major source of protein, research is currently under way to explore whether similar are also among the poorest and most socially excluded on balanced human development and sustainability. ” and frequently having the lowest levels of human capital, relationships hold in the case of mortality from extreme people in the world. Indigenous people are found in 7 – Sheila Watt- Cloutier the least transferable skill mix, and no access to land which weather events . Overall, more research is needed to explore ecosystems particularly prone to the effects of climate would provide an alternative or secondary livelihood the contributory role of social institutions to societal change including polar regions, humid tropical forests, source. Poor people living in highly populous cities in low- resilience in the face of climate change. high mountains, small islands, coastal regions, and arid lying deltas and coastal zones of developing countries are and semi-arid deserts. Owing to their heavy dependence This section offers illustrative examples of how social vulnerable both to sea-level rise and to flooding from storm on their local environments as a source of livelihood, they difference influences human experiences of climate change surges. And those living in rural communities and major are disproportionately affected both by climate change and and levels of adaptive capacity. It highlights the current cities downstream of high-altitude glaciers in the Himalaya, by climate action. For example, the Chair of the United predicament of Indigenous Peoples, gendered vulnerabilities Andes, Hindu-Kush and other high-mountain regions are Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues has to the consequences of climate change, and the contrasting vulnerable to the loss of glacially regulated water resources warned that 60 million indigenous people worldwide are at forms of vulnerability facing poor people living in urban for agriculture and drinking water. But in all geographic risk of displacement due to biofuel plantations. centers and arid and semi-arid rural areas of developing settings that are highly exposed to climate hazards, people countries. Numerous other forms of social difference could are differently vulnerable, whether as a result of their However, it is important that Indigenous Peoples not be also be considered. Such knowledge is needed to inform sources of livelihood, levels of income and asset holdings, seen merely as victims. Instead, they should be recognized strategic planning for adaptation at all levels from the social class, gender, age, ethnicity, caste, access to public as repositories of traditional ecological knowledge passed global to the local. support, or ability temporarily or permanently to migrate down over many generations which has enormous potential in search of economic opportunities. to complement and enrich existing scientific knowledge of Indigenous Peoples climate change. In the words of indigenous activist Sheila Just as levels and forms of vulnerability to the effects of Watt-Cloutier, “The indigenous world is so under-utilized climate change vary, so too does the capacity for societies Indigenous Peoples are extremely vulnerable to the for its intelligence and its wisdom because oftentimes to adapt to the changes that they will face. The adaptive impacts of climate change, given that they often live in it is seen as the victim of globalization. Yet we forget capacity of developing countries is generally constrained environmentally sensitive areas (e.g., the arctic region, the absolute ingenuity of indigenous culture.” While by by the limited availability of technology, weak institutional tropical forests, coastal zones, mountains, deserts, etc.), no means immune to destabilizing shocks and stresses, capacity, low levels of education, and inadequate financial and depend primarily on their surrounding biodiversity for Indigenous Peoples have evolved customary institutions, resources. Other factors such as poor nutrition patterns subsistence as well as cultural survival. At the same time, rules and practices that help to ensure a sustainable and weak health infrastructure further contribute to Indigenous Peoples hold knowledge that may be extremely relationship between society and the land and natural higher losses of human life in developing countries due valuable for climate change adaptation. There is a need resources they so directly depend on. 36 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? 37

Indigenous Knowledge And Climate brings rain is prevented from traveling up into the highlands. El Niño Despite possessing this knowledge, Indigenous Peoples have traditionally conditions also lead to an increase in thin, high cirrus cloud cover been excluded from the discussion and debate around the science and Change Adaptation during the late June, which causes the Pleiades to appear dimmer impacts of climate change on ecological and human systems. Rather Workshop participants offered numerous examples of ways in than usual. The correlation between high cirrus clouds in late June than capitalizing on their wealth of ecological knowledge, discussions which indigenous knowledge can help deepen understanding of and precipitation in the following rainy season corresponds to a on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and ways to strengthen climate change and its impacts on the livelihoods of Indigenous forecast accuracy of around 65%, which exceeds modern scientific adaptive capacity have paid little heed to Indigenous Peoples. In fact, Peoples. In the Arctic, for example, Inuit and other peoples of the forecasts with similar lead times. many proposed mitigation measures have the potential inadvertently circumpolar region have long been familiar with ways of sensing to undermine the customary rights to lands and natural resources In Mongolia too, nomadic herders’ observations of the weather when sea ice is safe for travel, which is essential in seal hunting. of Indigenous Peoples. This injustice can only be addressed through have been shown to complement scientific meteorological Observed changes in the quality of sea ice – e.g. becoming less the recognition of Indigenous Peoples’ rights and customary land observations in ways that help deepen understanding of climate salty, easier to chop, or breaking up sooner in the summer – are all and resource tenure, and their inclusion as key partners and decision change10. Herders’ knowledge highlights parameters that are indicators of a changing climate, and this is knowledge that saves makers in the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation “ Indigenous Peoples have been too long at the margins of this of most relevance for livestock production and management, lives. Equally, locally observed shifts in the migratory habits of interventions at the global, national and local levels. debate on climate change. Yet we seem to be the only people on which their livelihood primarily depends. They include caribou, cranes and whales may be linked to those in the weather, with a proven understanding of the social engineering and the spatial scale or patchiness of precipitation – known as Among such mitigation measures currently being considered, for example, seasons, and wind patterns. Scientific observations corroborate technology that is needed to live in a productive, protective torgnii hee boroo, or ‘silk embroidery rain’, after the customary are approaches to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest local people’s observations that such changes may be triggered by balance with the planet. ” pattern of embroidery on the deel, or tunic traditionally worn degradation (REDD), including payments for carbon held in sustainably seasonal cues such as changes in day length, air temperature, and – Rebecca Adamson by herders – and the timing and intensity of precipitation. managed and conserved forests under mechanisms such as the World ice thickness8. Herders distinguish between ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ rain, the latter Bank’s Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and the United Nations’ Across the Andes in Peru and Bolivia, Indian farmers use the being less effective in providing soil moisture for pasture grasses REDD mechanism. Much more work is needed, however, to design fair and particular appearance of the Pleiades – a star cluster in the since more is lost to surface runoff. Patchy rain implies more equitable governance arrangements for forest carbon trading schemes, constellation Taurus – to forecast the timing and quantity of frequent movements between pastures, which comes at a cost including clarifying tenure, property and carbon rights. If they are to precipitation in the rainy season, months later. They observe the in terms of animals’ energy expenditure. Late rains shorten the succeed, REDD initiatives need to be viewed within the wider context of stars as part of the festival of San Juan, each June 24th, and make summer growing season, with July rains being most critical. efforts to promote sustainable forest management, involving indigenous planting decisions accordingly. Elevation and climate impose Instrumental meteorological records such as daily precipitation and other forest people as active stewards of their forest environment, tight constraints on agriculture in this region, and farmers need and average wind speed are limited by the spatial coverage and removing barriers to transparent, inclusive, and accountable to plant potatoes to coincide with the start of the rains in order of weather stations, and while consistent with herders’ own forest governance. Consultations on FCPF design and implementation to maximize the length of the growing season. Households observations, may not pick up on those aspects of changing arrangements are currently under way with a view to enabling Indigenous also synchronize their cycles of planting and fallowing across weather patterns that are of most relevance in guiding herders’ Peoples to participate as full partners based on recognition of their rights thousands of individual plots so as to separate the areas of fallow adaptation to climate change. Closer articulation of herders’ and customary tenure. on which sheep, cattle and llamas graze from the cultivated fields in indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge systems would

which potatoes are grown. It is therefore imperative that villagers help deepen understanding so as to better inform early warning reach agreement on the date of planting, which gives them a powerful and drought contingency planning systems, among other motive to learn the nature of the coming rainy season. Scientific community-based approaches to reducing the vulnerability of research has confirmed the accuracy and causal relationships herders’ livelihoods to climate risk. Current downscaled climate underlying these farmers’ seasonal forecasts9. Potato yields are projections are too coarse a level of resolution to allow for this, observed to vary inversely with the intensity of El Niño conditions, or focus on climate parameters of little relevance for herders’ which alter the prevailing winds such that the humid air that normally land and livestock management practices. 38 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience 39 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation What are the challenges? and Degradation (REDD) In addition to these definitional problems, there are a number of other challenges in ensuring that REDD achieves its intended emissions At the 13th UNFCCC Conference in Bali, it was agreed to consider reduction objectives at a global scale while also benefiting those within including deforestation for the first time as part of a post-2012 global developing countries who depend most on forests for their livelihoods. Gender climate regime. Forests and land-use-change account for around Essential to all REDD schemes is to ensure that the price signals 20 percent of all greenhouse emissions. Making efforts to reduce Current discussions on climate change pay scant attention do in fact create the needed incentives for forest conservation and deforestation an integral part of the global climate deal holds considerable to the significant ways in which climate change impacts management, and that flows of carbon finance reward the ‘right’ people. promise both as a way to mitigate climate change, and to reward countries and adaptation practices are gendered. The combination The drivers of deforestation lie both within and outside the forest that manage to achieve significant reductions in deforestation rates. of economic disadvantage, limited access to resources, a sector. It is imperative that REDD schemes reward those who have Since the most substantial tracts of the world’s forests lie in the tropics dependency on male family members, and a lack of power demonstrated that they can protect and sustainably manage forests, – including the Amazon and Congo basins, and Indonesia – measures in decision-making are factors that often mean that women rather than those responsible for deforestation through illegal logging to reward emissions reductions from forests and land-use-change are are a particularly vulnerable group. Women are and will “ Women are often very vulnerable and consequently one of or, for example, by subsidizing oil palm plantations or pulp and paper of considerable interest to many developing countries with significant be disproportionately impacted by climate change; and the most affected groups. In the tsunami of Indonesia, Sri mills. Effective forest governance is therefore widely regarded as the key to forest cover. Such approaches fall under the general heading of Reducing will need gender specific adaptation strategies and action. Lanka, and India, mortality rates of women were 3-4 times success, although experience over several decades of development-related Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This is because social exclusion is strongly gendered in higher that of men because many women had not learnt to interventions in the forest sector suggests that this is likely to be an ways that increase vulnerability to climate change for swim due to social norms or they were trying to save their elusive goal. What is REDD? women and girls. For example, women typically outnumber children without regard for their own safety. Climate-induced The core idea underlying all REDD proposals is to put a price on the men by fourteen to one among those dying from natural Rights and equity: Indigenous and other forest dependent peoples, storm surges will have similar impacts,” stock of carbon held in forests, as a form of payment for environmental disasters11. Reasons for this are numerous: there are often accounting for at least 100 million people, are among the world’s poorest – Lorena Aguilar, IUCN services (PES), which is used to create incentives for forest conservation cultural and behavioral restrictions on women’s mobility and most vulnerable groups, and lack effective representation in national and sustainable forest management. This recognizes that carbon now including restrictive dress codes that may prove deadly politics or in international climate negotiations. Their customary rights has a market value, and is already internationally traded under a range of during floods, and in many societies skills that could be to forests and forest land may not be legally recognized within their own voluntary carbon trading schemes. It also requires that a credible baseline essential for survival such as tree climbing and swimming countries, or may overlap with the claims of other, often politically more can be established for existing forest cover, which can be translated into are only taught to boys. Women are household managers of powerful actors. REDD schemes may inadvertently increase the risk that an amount of carbon, and that changes in this carbon stock over time can natural resources and collect water, fuel and other resources forest-dependent communities will lose out to other these actors, and be accurately monitored. for survival. Social roles and responsibilities of women since rights to carbon are usually even less clear than land rights, local often determine that they are more dependent on natural REDD covers a number of proposed approaches, each of which appeals communities fear that they may see few or none of the benefits from resources and hence disproportionately more vulnerable to to a different set of constituencies. Some are restricted to areas of high carbon finance that REDD potentially offers. the effects of climate change. current rates of deforestation. Others include situations of forest- There are numerous technical challenges in the design and land degradation, usually on the margins of extensive forest tracts, Lack of assets, shelter and resources make women more implementation of REDD, which need not be discussed in detail here. although there is much dispute about what constitutes a forest and what vulnerable than men; and they usually do not want to go to These include, for example, issues of permanence and leakage – that is, constitutes ‘degradation’. safe shelters during disasters leaving their household and ensuring that emissions reductions from reducing deforestation are children behind. Such factors resulted in women accounting There are also disagreements over the source of funds for REDD. Some durable and that reductions in one context are not brought about at the for 90 percent of the 140,000 people killed in the 1991 argue that it should be financed from the carbon market, while others expense of higher deforestation elsewhere. The scale or unit of analysis is cyclone disaster in Bangladesh12. A recent study concluded argue for fund-based approaches. Critics of market-based approaches relevant here too; many argue it is essential to focus on the country level that such gender differences in deaths from natural argue that they are more likely to allow developed countries to offset their rather than at the level of individual projects, since it may be difficult to own direct emissions with emissions reductions in forest-rich countries avoid issues of leakage through a piecemeal, project-based approach. of the South, which may reduce overall effectiveness in achieving global emissions reductions. 40 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? 41

disasters are directly linked to women’s economic and social and natural resource management should be a priority in The Urban Poor infrastructure and services to low-income populations. rights13. Rural women will become more vulnerable due to designing and implementing climate change adaptation and Second, many municipal governments in developing their dependency on agriculture and natural resources, as risk-reduction strategies (see Box below). countries are unwilling to work with low-income groups, Urban centers in low- and middle-income countries these get affected by climate change. They may be forced to especially those living in informal settlements who are concentrate a high proportion of those most at risk from migrate to urban areas, mostly in slums where the situation often viewed as illegal squatters. Overcoming these barriers the effects of climate change. Poor people tend to live in can be worse due to crime, violence, conflict and most and enabling poor communities and municipal governments the interstices of such urban landscapes – in informal importantly lack of supportive social institutions. Engendering international to work in partnership with one another is key to effective settlements, on steep slopes, along riverbanks and climate action in such settings. At the same time, women’s activities have a different negotiations on climate action transport corridors, and on floodplains. Security of land impact on climate change than men’s; climate change In the short term, a number of tangible steps can be taken tenure is often precarious, and the poor lack the resources Public support to build adaptive capacity needs to be mitigation and adaptation instruments will affect men and to ensure that issues relating to gender are more effectively to invest in more protective forms of shelter. They see their tailored to meet the needs of vulnerable groups during three women differently; women and men differ concerning their integrated into climate action, including: lives, assets, environmental quality and future prosperity distinct stages of any risk cycle: pre-disaster risk limitation, respective perceptions of and reactions to climate change; threatened by the increasing risk of storms, floods, immediate post-disaster response, and longer-term and women are often excluded from discussions concerning • Analyzing and identifying gender-specific needs, landslides, heat waves and droughts. Water, drainage and recovery from a risk episode. Common elements across appropriate energy and climate related technology transfer. impacts, protection and support measures related energy supply systems are either absent or unable to cope all three stages are the need to increase the capacity of to floods, droughts, heat waves, diseases and other with the increasing strains being placed on them. communities to make demands on municipal government A critical sector in the climate change debate is forests. environmental changes and disasters; for public support in providing protective infrastructure Women and men use forest resources in different ways. Extreme weather events are among the most immediate and services, and to increase the capacity of those local Men are often involved in timber extraction and the use • Guaranteeing that women, especially grassroots threats to the urban poor in the developing world, and governments to respond. Strengthening the asset base of of non-timber products for commercial gain, while women women, and gender experts participate in all decisions climate action in such settings needs to be approached households and communities is therefore a key means of rely more on non-timber forest products and are more related to climate change; in this context. But urban inhabitants are differently building more competent, accountable local governments. dependent on intact forests. Women therefore are often vulnerable to these climatic and environmental hazards, • Taking action to ensure UNFCCC compliance with But the converse is also true: increasing demand for better disproportionately affected by deforestation and have a depending on their assets and capabilities, which in human rights frameworks and international and governance is also a key means of strengthening stronger interest in forest preservation. turn are strongly influenced by income, age, and gender. national commitments on gender equality and equity, the assets and adaptive capacity of poor households Understanding these differences and the synergies with including the Convention for the Elimination of All and communities. As in the case of Indigenous Peoples, women are not simply a poverty reduction agenda is key to tailoring approaches Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW); victims in the face of climate change; they are powerful agents to pro-poor adaptation with the aim of strengthening and of change and active managers of common-pool and household • Supporting the development of a gender strategy or protecting assets and capabilities at individual, household resources, due to their ‘triple roles’ in productive, reproductive, plan of action within the UNFCCC; and community levels. and community managing activities. But women have not so far been conferred an equal opportunity to participate in • Establishing a system for the use of gender-sensitive There are two main reasons why strengthening and decision making related to climate adaptation and mitigation indicators and criteria for governments to use in protecting the assets and capabilities of individual people, policies at the international and national levels, and gender national reporting to the UNFCCC Secretariat, as well households and communities is of far greater importance has been conspicuously absent from UNFCCC deliberations. as a series of gender-responsible criteria for programs/ in developing than in developed countries. First, there are The policy debate fails to take into account the practical and projects need to be developed, adapted to suit the limitations in the capacity of municipal governments to strategic needs of women. Harnessing women’s influential varying requirements of different instruments and support adaptation through the provision of protective leadership skills and experience in community revitalization regional and country (gender-based) contexts. 42 Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? Putting Poor People First: Who is Affected and How? 43

People in Rural Drylands according to the assets and capabilities of individuals, is essential in coping with climate variability – but often information campaigns, regional initiatives to support households and communities. Only those households with also hotly contested, suggesting limits to such managed the mainstreaming of adaptation in national and local sufficient human capital resources can afford to split or flexibility. Such border regions are also often hotspots plans, and strengthening citizen engagement with policy Over 2 billion people – 90 percent in developing countries maintain dual or multiple bases, for example, which in turn for armed conflict, and the weak political integration processes. These complementary approaches attempt – live in rural drylands that are characterized by a high is related to age or stage in the lifecycle of the household. and representation of pastoral groups in their own states to redress the unequal balance of power for people in degree of climatic variability and are highly susceptible to often leaves them unprotected and vulnerable to violence. drylands, while giving them voice and building capacity to climate change. Dryland communities are also among the The current state of knowledge does not allow for accurate, Traditional forms of livestock raiding have long been adapt to climate change. world’s poorest, fastest growing, and politically least well downscaled predictions of how climate change in arid and practiced among pastoral groups, such as those in northern represented populations. They include pastoralists, agro- semi-arid lands is expected to translate into drying and Kenya, southern Sudan and Ethiopia, and north-eastern pastoralists, and those primarily dependent on rainfed warming trends at regional, country and local levels. While Uganda; they had a certain redistributive logic, and played agriculture. Climate variability has long been a fact of life highly uncertain, it is possible, for example, that parts of an important role in the initiation rites of young adult for those living in drylands, and in many ways they are well West and East Africa and South Asia may see an increase males. But these forms of raiding have recently become adapted to an unpredictably variable environment. Their in rainfall. But climate change threatens to significantly embroiled in the wider geopolitics of this contentious livelihoods and social institutions tend to be inherently alter the degree of variability, and the frequency with region, and the wide availability of automatic weaponry oriented towards climate adaptation through flexible, ex which highly unusual events occur, as evidenced by the as a result of armed conflicts has spilled over resulting in ante strategies to reduce vulnerability, such as herd mobility, unprecedented floods in pastoral areas of Ethiopia and unprecedented levels of mortality in new and increasingly livelihood diversification, household splitting, migration, northern Ghana in recent years. Such events could strain predatory forms of livestock raiding. Increasing climate and traditional mechanisms for managing the conflicts that existing adaptive capacities beyond their ability to cope. variability and change could interact with underlying invariably result over competition for scarce resources. Inhabitants of drylands themselves often stress that rainfall phenomena such as these to produce previously unseen patterns have become less predictable in recent years. This In addition to flexible livelihood strategies in situ, the forms of human insecurity. makes it hard for farmers to time planting and other key strategies pastoralists and agro-pastoralists adopt for decisions in the yearly cycle. The same amount of rain can While these challenges are formidable, evidence suggests coping with and adapting to climatic variability often be a lot less useful if it falls at the wrong time, so variability that there are multiple entry points available for range much further afield. For example, pastoralists in East is a key issue. enhancing climate resilience in dryland communities Africa and the Horn of Africa export livestock and livestock that, if applied in combination and with a sufficient products to the Gulf states and throughout the Middle East It is well known that vulnerability to the vagaries of the level of ambition, could yield effective results. These region. Long distance migration to urban centers is also climate in dryland areas is often exacerbated by non- build on traditional, adaptive livelihood strategies, commonly practiced, on a seasonal or longer-term basis, climate stressors such as insecurity of land and property but introduce new approaches geared more towards including forms of household splitting involving household rights, disease, and conflict. Many drylands lie along the empowering pastoralists and others living in drylands to members maintaining a permanent base in urban and rural peripheries of nation-states, and dryland communities make demands on their governments. Such approaches areas, and sometimes even across international borders commonly move across national borders in search of include water resource management (e.g. rainwater through migratory diasporas. These phenomena have been pasture, water, and trading opportunities. Land tenure harvesting), community-driven development building observed among pastoral communities in West Africa, and rights are usually unclear – in part by design, since a on local institutions, scaling-up of community-based Mongolia, and elsewhere. As in the case of the urban poor certain degree of flexibility helps facilitate the mobility that adaptation, drought early warning systems, public in developing countries, levels of adaptive capacity vary 44 Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience 45

Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience

The third common theme emerging from the workshop was Conflict and Human Security agreement that the potential implications of climate change for social dynamics, cohesion and resilience is a priority area Many of today’s most fragile and conflict-prone societies are for deepening knowledge and understanding. The world within the group of countries expected to be most severely is facing many mega trends, such as urbanization, climate hit by adverse climate changes in the coming decades. change and population growth – all of which will affect Without effective action on mitigation, climate change patterns of migration and conflict. There has been relatively could overstretch adaptive capacities of many societies little experience to date with responses to drought and within the coming decades, resulting in destabilization natural disasters involving large-scale conflict or migration. and violence, and posing new challenges for national and But we cannot count on study of the past as being a good international security. This is likely to be particularly true in basis for future planning in this respect, since perceptions weak and fragile states with poorly performing institutions may change of the likely future frequency of extreme and governance structures. This could trigger conflicts weather events, or of the agents (who or what) responsible between and within countries over scarce resources, for them, and step changes may well occur in the severity especially water and land, over the management of of extreme events themselves. Furthermore, sea level rise migration, or over compensation payments from richer (which is unprecedented historically) may in the medium to poorer countries for adaptation finance. to long-term cause displacements on a substantial scale. Any of these possibilities has implications for migration This is a newly emerging area of research and many of responses (whether distress, planned, anticipatory, or these propositions remain conjectural. It is proving to labor-related) and policy. Little is yet known about the be a formidable challenge to establish empirical support implications of climate change for conflict and state fragility, for the linkages between conflict and climate effects. A and this too is a priority area for further research. number of regional hotspots have been identified in which constellations of security risks are thought to be associated Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank McCourtie / World D. Simone 46 Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience 47

Figure 6. Security Risks Associated With Climate Change: Selected Hotspots.

with climate change, and which could develop into crisis tension and conflict. Finally, worsened environmental hotspots14. Such risks include climate-induced degradation conditions may force people to migrate in large numbers, of freshwater resources, climate-induced increase in thereby increasing environmental, social, political and storm and flood disasters, climate-induced decline in food economic stress in receiving areas. production, and environmentally-induced migration Past research has found societal factors such as low national (see Figure 6). income, large and ethnically diverse populations, weak Three particular manifestations of climate change are thought and inconsistent political institutions, unstable regional to have substantial security implications: increasing scarcity ‘neighborhoods’, and a recent history of large scale violence, and variability in the yields of renewable natural resources to correlate closely with the risk of armed conflict. Given on which human livelihoods depend; sea-level rise, which is the social effects associated with climate changes, future believed to have the potential to trigger massive population negative security impacts are likely to be found in countries displacement, albeit over an uncertain timeframe; and and regions that already experience organized violence. intensification of natural disasters which would affect The mechanisms by which the negative impacts may spiral societies’ resource base, infrastructure and settlement require further investigation in specific country cases, patterns. The first of these manifestations – increased including focusing on the socio-political catalysts, local resource scarcity - has received most of the attention in the mechanisms, and low-level violence. literature discussing security implications. However, the Several areas were pinpointed as deserving high priority precise nature of the relationship between resource scarcity in future research on conflict and climate change. A first and armed conflict, if any, remains unclear, and questions was to examine in greater depth what may be the plausible regarding causality remain to be explored in depth. catalysts of conflict, including the conditions under which Stocktaking research conducted for the workshop suggested natural disasters may contribute to conflict. Second, it that climate change may increase the risk of armed conflict was felt to be important to widen the definition of conflict only under certain conditions and in interaction with several to include non-state conflicts, to explore the influence of socio-political factors. Five social effects of climate change climate in shaping the course and outcome of ongoing Conflict constellations in selected hotspots have been suggested as crucial catalysts of organized violence. conflicts, and to acknowledge regional implications. First, increasing scarcity of renewable resources may cause Third, in terms of research methods, pluralistic approaches Climate-induced degradation Climate-induced decline unemployment, loss of livelihood and economic activity, that combine research traditions are needed, including of freshwater resources in food production Hotspot and decreasing state income. Second, increasing resource a combination of more disaggregated research designs, competition may move opportunistic elites to intensify social quantitative analysis and comparative analysis of historically cleavages. Third, reduced state income may hinder delivery grounded case studies. Such approaches would more readily Climate-induced increase Environmentally-induced in storm and flood disasters migration of public goods, reduce political legitimacy, and give rise to allow for complex relationships to be tested in a systematic political challengers. Fourth, efforts to adjust to a changing manner from which general propositions can be drawn. climate may have inadvertent side effects that could spur (Source: WBGU (2008)14 48 Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience Social Dynamics, Cohesion and Resilience 49

Migration been based on such calculations. However, this method is example, international labor migration from the Sahel rise and increased flood hazards. This, combined with unsatisfactory since many factors drive migration and the region actually fell during the droughts of the 1970s increased overcrowding in urban areas, carries a risk of effect of climate variability and shocks is difficult to isolate. and 1980s as people lacked the resources to invest in the secondary migration. Migration is a complex social process and identifying and An alternative approach is to identify existing migration journey. Conflict-driven migration may be exacerbated isolating factors is not simple. Exploring the links between There is also a need to further develop approaches for the patterns and examine how demographic trends and climate by climate change, particularly where this exacerbates migration and climate change is even more challenging. managed relocation of populations whose livelihoods and change may affect the drivers of these specific migrations. conflict over natural resources (e.g. Darfur). Temporary, Climate change may play a role in migration but is often settlements may not be secure. In the near future, the Second-round impacts will also affect migration. Coping short-distance ‘distress’ migration is likely to rise as a not the primary driver. Vulnerability to climate change number of people needing to be relocated will be quite strategies may erode poor people’s long-term ability to consequence of climate shocks (e.g. droughts in the Sahel is as much shaped by underlying inequities in access to minimal. However, a best-practice strategy should be maintain a livelihood (e.g. pulling children out of school, or floods in Volta, Okavango and Niger deltas). However, power and resources as by the climate stressors themselves. designed to deal with the most difficult future situations reducing food consumption). the numbers affected may be lower if prior anticipatory Social difference will affect migration choices. For example, – the cases of small island development states and urban migration occurs in response to increased climate natural disasters vary widely in their potential to instigate In general, better data are required on internal migration coastal areas. To prevent significant outmigration, present vulnerability. Some migration streams driven by the ‘pull’ migration. Indeed, while labor migration commonly and displacement. These data can be used to determine strategies could include protecting coastal infrastructure of economic opportunity may also be affected by climate intensifies in response to climate hazard, distress migration how disasters vary in their effects based on differential and limited building in fragile coastal areas. In addition, change, including reduced opportunities for seasonal patterns are shaped by assets, social networks and available development and they would allow for an assessment of regional agreements to facilitate post-disaster recovery work in Eastern Sudan or Central Ghana and increasing aid. It is also important to note that migration in response local resilience and adaptation programs. Local, contextual should be developed in advance of disasters. employment opportunities in agriculture outside Africa. to climate variability is typically internal and short-term, information is probably more reliable than country level Coastal or low-lying areas will be vulnerable to sea level and not related to conflict risk. data as vulnerability differs significantly across disaster affected communities. More research should be undertaken Broadly speaking, the major climate change trends in areas where livelihoods are fragile, and the margin for of relevance to migration are likely to be: increasing disaster is exceedingly narrow. temperature and reduced rainfall, leading to water stress, drought and reduced growing season in tropical and sub- Combining the projected trends for demographics and tropical drylands (e.g. the Sahel); sea level rise, increased climate change with current migration patterns, a number frequency of storm surges, and increased intensity of of impacts may be expected. Climate change impacts tropical cyclones, leading to flooding in low-lying and are likely to be more substantial where ‘push’ drivers of coastal regions (including the Niger delta); and higher migration coincide with high vulnerability to climate change temperatures leading to a longer growing season in and low capacity to adapt. In such areas (e.g. the Sahel, temperate regions (e.g. Northern Europe and Siberia). highlands of Ethiopia), the pressure to migrate is likely to increase. Internal and cross-border movements appear Measuring the potential impact of climate change on more likely to be frequent responses to climate change migration is challenging. The standard approach to linking impacts than long-distance international movements, climate change and migration is to identify areas affected as economic losses associated with climate change by climate change, count the number of people living there, may prevent people investing in overseas migration and use this to estimate the number likely to be forced and force them to look for work elsewhere locally. For to leave. Estimates ranging from 150-200 million have 50 Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action 51

Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action

The fourth, strongly emerging theme of the workshop was that it is vital that climate action be made to work for rather than against the interests of poor people.

Two observations are commonly made regarding the distinction between mitigation and adaptation in the global climate change debate. First and foremost is that the more mitigation is undertaken, the less adaptation will be “ What we have now is a wall of capital looking for new needed – that is, mitigation should be seen as the first and places to invest… Demand for food, fuel and fiber is best form of adaptation. As the Stern Review argued, it is rising. The best estimate is that there are only 300 also likely to be orders of magnitude cheaper for national million hectares left [in the world] that have not been economies to mitigate now than to try to adapt later. allocated to these purposes. This is the world’s last great land grab. ” The second distinction between mitigation and adaptation –Andy White is that while mitigation necessitates global analysis and global collective action, all adaptation is necessarily local. Appropriate forms of adaptation support need to be based on country- and context-specific analysis and to be tailored to suit local conditions.

It is important to keep both of these observations in mind when discussing climate action. But while reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change Alfredo Srur / World Bank SrurAlfredo / World 52 Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action 53

(mitigation) and addressing its consequences (adaptation) and the weakest voice when it comes to pressing their Preliminary evidence suggests that such approaches could of vulnerable groups to voice their priorities and make are conceptually separate, in practice they are closely claims. While the international community has been slow be among the most cost-effective means of ‘sequestering’ claims for public support is the best line of defense in interrelated realms of engagement. There are potential to acknowledge these unintended consequences of climate (or capturing and storing) carbon, while also empowering reducing the potential risks associated with mitigation. synergies and trade-offs between them, many of which are action, the practical challenges in realizing ‘co-benefits’ for and creating incentives for local communities to act as Such approaches help overcome the potential trade-offs only just coming into sharper focus in the international local communities are likely to be formidable. active stewards of their forest environment. between mitigation and adaptation and instead shift debate. Most notably, a number of mitigation actions climate action in the direction of realizing synergies In terms of tackling the causes of climate change, it is vital At the same time, the application of social safeguard policies carry high social risks that could make it harder rather between the two agendas. to strengthen the benefits and reduce the potential costs is essential to ensure that the various actors in forest carbon than easier for poor and vulnerable groups to adapt to the of mitigation actions for poor people and their livelihoods. finance initiatives are held to account and comply with Tackling adaptation also requires seeing beyond consequences of climate change. Much more work is needed to develop more inclusive and international agreements, minimum standards and good infrastructure in deciding on priorities in allocating socially accountable approaches to hydropower development, practices. Much discussion in the forests context currently resources for adaptation. Much discussion in the Social Impacts of Mitigation biofuels, and forest carbon finance initiatives in the context focuses on applying the core principle enshrined in the workshop addressed the overlap or complementarity of the UNFCCC negotiations, although the broad outlines of recently adopted UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous between a climate change adaptation agenda and what Many of the measures being proposed to reduce greenhouse such an approach is beginning to emerge in some areas. Peoples of requiring the ‘free, prior and informed consent’ of may be considered the existing realm of pro-poor gas emissions threaten to further undermine the livelihoods Indigenous Peoples. Not all institutions, including the World development. Many societies are not well adapted even On the forests agenda, for example, we need an approach of those who are among the most vulnerable to the impacts Bank, have yet brought safeguard policy frameworks fully to existing climatic conditions, including the challenges that proactively addresses social risks ex ante, applying of climate change. The promotion of first-generation or into line with this international agreement. posed by existing levels of climate variability, suggesting lessons from international experience in promoting ethanol-based biofuels, efforts to reduce emissions from that there is an ‘adaptation deficit’ that first needs to be sustainable forest management in ways that actively deforestation and degradation (REDD) by putting a price addressed even before turning to an agenda that explicitly involves Indigenous Peoples and other forest-dependent Realizing Synergies between on carbon, and large-scale investments in hydropower addresses the need to adapt to future climate changes. generation, may have unintended consequences resulting in communities. This should include clarifying and securing Mitigation and Adaptation the expropriation of land holdings of poor and vulnerable their tenure, property and carbon rights; removing barriers There is wide scope for ‘win-win’ or ‘no-regrets’ policies groups. This is because those who are among the most to transparent, inclusive and accountable forest governance; In order to tackle effectively and equitably the consequences and programs that simultaneously help to address existing vulnerable, such as women and Indigenous Peoples, often and investing in institutional and organizational capacity of climate change, it is essential to build the adaptive forms of vulnerability and provide a foundation for have the least secure property rights over the land and to enable them to participate as full partners in climate capacity and resilience of vulnerable social groups and the adaptation to future climate change. In many respects, natural resources on which they depend for a livelihood, action and sustainable forest management more broadly. institutions that support them. This includes the capacity sound development is the best form of adaptation: to organize at the local level for adaptation, voice priorities strong and accountable institutions, effective delivery and make claims on public policy, and mediate and resolve of education and health care services, integrated water potential conflicts arising over competition for resources. resources management, pro-poor agricultural research and The importance of such approaches to building adaptive extension, good infrastructure and a diversified economy FAST FACT capacity has been highlighted in the previous section with all contribute to societal resilience. The role of social policy Strategies to mitigate climate change, such as growing corn and sugar cane for biofuels and the use of forestry plantations as “carbon sinks”, are competing with food production for increasingly scarce land, thereby placing further demands on the reference to the urban poor and people living in drylands in in helping to realize such synergies in climate action is world food system. Ethanol and biodiesel production, which largely draw on maize and oilseeds, have had a strong effect developing countries. We have also seen in the case of the highlighted in the following section, with an emphasis on on rising agricultural commodity prices. As new linkages and trade-offs are created between the agricultural and energy forests agenda that empowering and building the capacity coherence of actions to achieve effective adaptation. sectors, agricultural commodity prices are becoming increasingly correlated with energy prices. 54 Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action 55

There are also countless ways in which societies and on empowerment, participatory planning processes, international agreements are currently mal-adapted to community involvement in decisions, access to information, climate hazards. Examples include counterproductive and institutional capacity building. Figure 7: The Development-Adaptation Continuum incentives such as subsidies for water-intensive crops, OECD farm subsidies and restrictions on free trade At the other end of the spectrum are adaptation approaches of developing country agricultural commodities, and that more explicitly address the direct impacts of climate inappropriate or unevenly applied regulatory frameworks change, such as improved weather data collection and for land-use planning. The political economy underlying forecasting capabilities. In between the two extremes such perverse incentive structures is one of the most are approaches that seek progressively to build climate challenging aspects of the climate action agenda, as response capacity and address climate risk management evidenced by years of foot-dragging on international including ex ante preparedness measures. This includes Addressing Building Climate Risk Confronting agricultural trade reform by OECD countries. Removing improved approaches to vulnerability and risk assessment, Vulnerability Response Management Climate such barriers to adaptation is an urgent priority in the provision of public services such as drought early Drivers Capacity Change climate action as much as in a pro-poor development warning systems, improved inter-sectoral coordination agenda more generally. (e.g. for disaster risk preparedness and response), the provision of technical assistance (e.g. for strengthening The Development-Adaptation the capacity of health systems to address new diseases), public safety nets for those affected by disasters, and ex Continuum ante financing structures that seek to pool risk at higher levels of aggregation including global weather markets (e.g. In this context, the notion of a continuum of adaptation catastrophe bonds and index-based weather insurance). approaches was also discussed, drawing on work by Within this range of action it is important that planning Vulnerability focus Impact focus the World Resources Institute15 (see Figure 7). At one for social provision (including health, education, social end of the continuum are adaptation approaches that protection, the provision of urban services, and the overlap substantially with those aspects of the existing regulation labor markets) takes account of the increasing (Source: adapted from McGray et al. (2007)15 development agenda that seek to reduce poverty by impacts of climate change. addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability, whether climate-related or not. This recognizes that climate- However, it is important to recognize that the basis for related stressors more often than not interact with other providing adaptation finance under the UNFCCC is very drivers of vulnerability, as clearly illustrated by the case different from the basis on which official development of people living in drylands. Such approaches seek to assistance (ODA) is provided. Under the UNFCCC, strengthen governance, policies and institutions, through according to the Polluter Pays Principle, Annex 1 approaches including community-based natural resource countries (mainly OECD countries, until now the chief management, community-driven development, and social emitters of greenhouse gases) are obligated to provide protection programs, for example, with a strong emphasis 56 Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action Mitigation and Adaptation: Towards Pro-Poor Climate Action 57

adaptation finance to non-Annex 1 countries (developing was that social policy needs to be brought into the countries, in the main). Adaptation finance is therefore picture for effective, pro-poor climate action, but in ways seen as a right of developing countries, in a way that that go beyond ‘business as usual’. goes beyond the moral and ethical foundations of ODA. Social safety nets and other mechanisms for social This is why in the context of the negotiations on a future protection will be critical both for helping poor people global climate regime, it is vital that adaptation finance to adapt and for when adaptation fails. Inclusive and be seen as additional to existing flows of ODA, which responsive institutions are needed to ensure that the developing countries fear it might otherwise displace. provision of critical services (health care, housing, Practically speaking, however – as the notion of the education) can adapt to a changing situation. And when development-adaptation continuum makes clear – there population movements accelerate in response to climate is substantial overlap and complementarity in the types change there will be challenges in ensuring that migrants of activities that need to be supported by both ODA can acquire security of the person and livelihood in their and adaptation finance. It is a necessarily integrated new homes and communities. agenda. In order to make climate action work for rather But social policies should not been seen as an ‘add on’ than against the interests of poor and vulnerable people, to failed economic policies. Climate change provides policy and practical coherence between the realms of an opportunity for an integrated approach to policy development and adaptation is urgently needed. To the development that takes on board both economic and extent that they may at times be addressed by different social concerns while being contextualized within global agencies and communities of practice on the ground, it is political debates. Macroeconomic policies and structural also essential that the lessons of decades of development reforms can affect existing distributive relations and experience are heeded and applied in operationalizing institutional structures and, as such, may affect social climate change adaptation. relations and poverty. Therefore, macroeconomic policies should aim at macroeconomic stability not as an end to The Role of Social Policy in itself, but as a necessary precondition for sustainable Climate Action growth and supporting pro-poor climate action. The range of available macroeconomic, social policy and Measures to close the existing ‘adaptation deficit’ are mitigation and adaptation options may be constrained needed to help households and countries gear up for the by a country’s situation. Hence, macroeconomic expected increase in future climate volatility. While this and financial policies and programming need to be may look a lot like development as we know it, it implies formulated with an understanding of institutional much more than ‘business as usual’: interventions will and social context as well as the economic situation. need to be designed in different ways to take account Moreover, the analysis and understanding of these of changing risk patterns and longer time horizons for linkages must be deepened, both globally and in the adaptation. The fifth emerging theme from the workshop specific country context. 58 Governance and Climate Action Governance and Climate Action 59

Governance and Climate Action

The sixth, and frequently recurring theme of the workshop, competitiveness. Second, the ability of governments concerned the governance of climate action at the global, to formulate effective adaptive responses depends on national and local levels. Among the critical questions arising the strength of existing governance mechanisms. Third, are which actors and institutions need to be involved, how societies’ adaptive capacities are in part shaped by the to give voice to the vulnerable in crafting such governance support which good governance structures help to facilitate. arrangements, and how various forms of social accountability16 And fourth, the distribution of costs and benefits within can be built in. Governance and institutions powerfully and between states in response to climate change are shape adaptive capacity at the national level, and are critical fundamentally determined by governance structures at the in ensuring that the results of mitigation efforts local, national and international levels. match intentions. Although they often operate in isolation, governance From community meetings to the corridors of the United mechanisms at the global, national and local levels are Nations, the complex challenges involved in tackling vitally inter-linked. For example, global frameworks the causes and consequences of climate change are shape national strategies which influence local responses. fundamentally those of governance. First, the challenge Similarly, local knowledge can be used to ensure that of coordinating effective global action to mitigate climate national and global structures are well aligned with local change requires unprecedented collective action between priorities; the quality of local governance structures can also nations, firms and communities – constituting a massive influence the success of national adaptation strategies. This challenge to systems of national and global governance. interconnectedness needs to be recognized so that policy The barriers to the kind of collective action needed include makers can effectively assess the strengths and weaknesses the complex issues of equity and social justice discussed of potential climate change interventions. earlier in this report, and issues of sequencing and market Julio Pantoja / World Bank / World Julio Pantoja 60 Governance and Climate Action Governance and Climate Action 61

Voice and Representation definition of ‘dangerous climate change’? Clearly what • At the Community Level: How do you empower is ‘dangerous’ depends on where you are sitting and local communities to guide adaptation strategies? The how vulnerable your home and livelihood are to climate international development community can help in From the perspective of social sustainability, a key change impacts. We should be cognizant of the realities making information available at the community level, element of good governance is giving voice to and of vulnerable people in poor countries in the way we but also in working with governments to understand ensuring the representation of traditionally poor and frame the boundaries of acceptable change. the ways in which communities are already adapting to marginalized groups. This is crucial when designing climate change and variability, and the contributions climate change adaptation strategies as these groups • At the National Level: In what ways can national that community-based adaptation will have to make in will be the most affected and are already adapting climate policy objectives be designed to account for the future. To what extent do national policies empower autonomously to increasing climate variability. Similarly, social and distributional issues? To what extent may local communities rather than actually making it “ The solutions are going to come from our communities, from good governance is critical in the context of mitigation adaptation or mitigation strategies offer opportunities harder for them to adapt? What government strategies the bottom up, from each individual and institution being efforts, many of which may have adverse, if unintended, simultaneously to promote wider social development have been successful in integrating community-based accountable and responding – not from some elite groups social consequences. In these circumstances, good objectives? For example, a low-carbon urban design development approaches into national adaptation plans of scientists, governments and private sector leaders. ” governance can be promoted through measures to might include many provisions that would improve of action? Which types of strategies have undermined – Rebecca Adamson increase voice and social accountability, maximize co- social conditions for the urban poor – including locating communities’ capacities? benefits to local communities, or empower communities housing and businesses in such a way that journey times by recognizing and strengthening their customary land and costs are reduced, improving the conditions for tenure and other forms of rights so that they may benefit walking and bicycling, and improving public transport. Social Learning and Adaptive from the opportunities offered. Moreover, poor peoples’ How can technological solutions be designed and Policymaking experiences may have significant value for decision makers implemented in a way that is socially acceptable? How who are designing these strategies at different levels. can governments ensure that the implementation of Several distinct features of the global climate challenge measures to protect forests, marshland or rangeland weigh strongly in favor of ensuring that a socially inclusive, Linking the Global and the Local as carbon sinks do not lead to a loss of property or learning process approach to adaptive policymaking is use rights for poor populations? Clearly, transparent placed at the center of climate action, particularly at Accomplishing this task is challenging. However, an rules on ownership and institutions that are capable of national, sub-national and local levels. First is the long important first step in examining how more effectively applying them in a fair and proper way will be important time horizon over which decisions need to be made, and to link local and global concerns in a comprehensive for protecting the stake of poor people in key natural the path-dependent nature of those decisions. Second is governance agenda is to consider the following issues: resources in the era of climate action. How can we uncertainty: even if certain changes are inevitable, their ensure that climate change policies are formulated in precise timing, location, and distributional impacts usually • At the Global Level: How can the voices of poor an egalitarian and participatory manner? In order to remain uncertain. And third, effective and coherent climate people and poor countries be taken into account in strengthen voice and accountability in the development change mitigation and adaptation involves coordinated framing the language of climate action? For example, of national level climate strategies and policies it will action among a vast number of decentralized agents. the Government of the Maldives regards the necessity be important to ensure that citizens have information to move out of one’s homeland due to climate change as about the choices and trade-offs involved, and that policy Adaptive policy making under these circumstances will a failure of adaptation rather than an adaptive strategy. systems are responsive to their views. require policy makers to treat policies and programs as Similarly, who should draw the boundaries on the ongoing experimental and learning processes, based 62 Governance and Climate Action Governance and Climate Action 63

on targets and milestones, strong performance based A variety of frameworks, approaches and tools already monitoring and evaluation systems, and enabling exist – including livelihoods and entitlements approaches frameworks for interactive engagement with multiple – that lend themselves well to being applied to or further stakeholders. It also calls for much greater public developed to better suit this context. This emerged as participation in defining what climate change adaptation another priority area for knowledge deepening, with means in particular contexts. This could include, for many participants considering it important to further our example, the use of participatory scenario techniques with understanding of the dynamics of power and vulnerability multiple stakeholders to jointly project anticipated changes under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Key elements of and plan for the kinds of public policy and other forms of such a framework would likely include assets, livelihoods, support they need to help them adapt to those changes. power, institutions, vulnerability and resilience17.

Towards a Framework for Analysis

Considerable discussion during the workshop focused on how we should analyze the social dimensions of climate change, and what this would mean for diagnosing problems and framing pro-poor, socially accountable forms of climate action. Analytical frameworks, approaches and tools of social analysis have an important role to play in translating a social justice and governance agenda into effective research, policy and operational responses. At the core of this agenda is the need to understand the ways people are differently vulnerable to the consequences of climate change by virtue of their geographical location, livelihood sources, asset- holdings and social positioning, and for operational and policy responses to be tailored accordingly. 64 Way Forward: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Policy Way Forward: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Policy 65

Way Forward: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Policy

Viewing climate change through a social justice lens helps while promoting sustainable development. For example, a direct the future research and policy agenda towards number of social policy interventions (e.g. social protection priorities that most directly resonate with those people and insurance instruments) are “no-regrets” contributions most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. to equitable risk management and springboards for growth. While the broad outlines of a global agenda on the social Indeed, even if some adverse effects of climate change do dimensions is becoming clear, there is still much work not emerge, investing in these “no-regrets” policies will to be done. The workshop provided useful if preliminary leave countries better off from a development perspective answers on many issues, but also generated a wide range of than they otherwise would be. In short, we need to focus questions and issues that warrant further exploration and on identifying operational entry points which not only follow-up action. The list below highlights some of the most address the consequences of climate change, but also important issues for the climate change agenda, and others promote pro-poor growth. are included in the summaries of presentations and papers that follow. This is meant to represent the beginning of a conversation about how social development issues can more Reframing the Issue effectively inform effective climate action. The social dimensions of climate change need to be more fully integrated into mainstream policy and planning Advancing a “No-Regrets” within developing countries. Responsibility for action Approach to Development needs to be taken up at the appropriate level by the relevant agencies and government departments. In many The development community should advance a “no-regrets” developing countries, faced with a laundry list of formidable approach to development which simultaneously promotes development challenges, ensuring the protection of the resilience to the adverse consequences of climate change natural environment may not be a major priority. Climate Ray Witlin / World Bank Ray Witlin / World 66 Way Forward: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Policy Way Forward: Integrating Social Dimensions into Climate Policy 67

change still suffers from being viewed as primarily an government accountable for delivering results. The overall include, for example, ethnographic research to understand local issues. A further important step is to identify, assess environmental issue and is consequently relegated in many goal should be to help both governments and communities how existing inequalities among groups and individuals and engage the full range of actors with a stake in a socially developing countries to the sole authority of generally weak advance social development objectives through ‘no-regrets’ may be reinforced or transformed under climate stresses, just approach to climate change, including those from environment ministries and agencies. Once reframed as a policies and programs that also build resilience to climate thereby shaping resource entitlements and well-being. within governments, the private sector, civil society, and core challenge for sustainable development, however, with change and promote good development. communities, and to identify potential areas for and new powerful economic and social as well as environmental Finally, research needs to focus on making evidence-based forms of partnership among these actors. implications, there is a greater likelihood of effective action policy recommendations for adaptation in the context of great An Emerging Policy The key will be to find ways to create incentives for a by ministries of finance and planning, integration into uncertainty surrounding climate change. A number of these diverse range of actors to speak with a common voice on national budgets, and take up at the level of all relevant Research Agenda potential avenues for future research are outlined in the paper the importance of addressing the social dimensions of sector ministries and line agencies. summaries in Part II. Given that the consequences of climate climate change. Three types of incentives are emerging – The realization that climate change is a core challenge for change do not all play out in ‘real’ time – for example, financial, political and moral. New financial and political development has opened up space for a policy research there are often significant lead-lag effects associated with A major effort is required to raise awareness, advocate, incentives may help influence the extent to which a social agenda that focuses more on its economic and social threshold events – the research agenda needs to be much and develop and share knowledge on the socio-economic justice approach to climate change – emphasizing demand impacts. From a social perspective, a number of areas more focused on anticipating potential problems and dimensions of climate change to ensure this wider sense for voice, accountability, and better governance; respect stand out as being of particular importance. First, it will utilizing tools such as participatory scenario analysis to of ownership over the agenda by powerful stakeholders for rights and acceptance of responsibilities – percolates be important to devise best practices for integrating local discern how people would respond to these challenges at in developing countries. The goal is to ensure that through and informs strategies to deal with climate change knowledge with scientific knowledge in the formulation the local level. There is also space to develop and apply governments place socially just climate change responses at the local, national and global levels. For example, public of adaptation strategies. While local knowledge has much innovative tools for multi-stakeholder engagement in at the heart of country-led poverty reduction, growth and and consumer pressure on the private sector may provide to offer in terms of informing adaptation strategies, devising action plans under conditions of uncertainty. development strategies. Assisting governments to develop an incentive to move in the direction of more sustainable combining the two has proven challenging to date. For example, it would be instructive to bring together coherent and comprehensive climate policy involving and socially responsible business models. Equally, the Participatory mechanisms for bringing together local stakeholders from vulnerable communities with those effective inter-ministerial and cross-sectoral coordination, international climate negotiations must set an ambitious, stakeholders’ and expert knowledge and integrating them from the private sector, governments, and civil society and allocating sufficient funding for adaptation and long-term target for binding emissions reductions, with at scale may be an important prerequisite, for example, organizations to jointly develop robust scenarios for mitigation, will be major parts of achieving this goal. credible and enforceable intermediate milestones, if the for facilitating effective and culturally relevant action adaptation under alternative future scenarios of climate carbon market is to thrive and encourage the private sector based on scientific forecasts and hazard warnings. Second, change impacts and negotiations. to change its business models. Last but not least, if citizens Improving the Adaptive it will be critical to develop indicators which can be used are informed and empowered to demand more socially just Capacity of the Poor to track progress towards achieving results on the social Bringing Stakeholders Together and accountable forms of climate action, governments will dimensions of climate change. Third, we need to better come under pressure to respond both from below as well as At the local level, the poor need to be informed of the risks utilize frameworks and tools for social analysis (e.g. for Greater Social Justice from their peers. posed by climate change and better equipped to deal with its poverty and social impact analysis, participatory poverty impacts. People should also have access to, and be trained and vulnerability assessments) when modeling the effects Given that global agreements are difficult to achieve due to to use, social accountability tools and instruments (e.g. for of climate change and assessing the impact that policies entrenched patterns of behavior in international relations, citizen oversight and monitoring) so that they can hold could have on the poorest and most vulnerable. This could it will be important to further explore the extent to which climate change creates opportunities to bridge global and 68 Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses 69

Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008: Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses

Dr. Bob Watson Poor people’s heightened vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is due to both a narrower margin of tolerance to the impacts and low adaptive capacity severely Chief Scientist, Department of Environment and Rural constrained by the poor’s lack of access to technology, Affairs, Government of the United Kingdom, and former low levels of existing financial and institutional capacity Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by lack of know-how and education on how to adapt. “The Importance of Social Dimensions of Climate Change” The projected impacts of climate change are diverse (Keynote address) and oftentimes interrelated, including decreased water Dr. Bob Watson captivated workshop participants availability and quality in many arid and semi-arid regions with a call to consider the diverse social dimensions of and decrease in agricultural productivity for almost any climate change as much a development issue as a global warming in the tropics and sub-tropics. Furthermore, environmental issue. He detailed numerous ways in climate change threatens to provoke conflict and which climate change may both undermine and even migration depending on the social, economic and political reverse progress made towards achieving development circumstances of the area in question. goals noting that most impacts of climate change directly What can be done? Bob Watson asserted that climate threaten the livelihoods of the poor, human health and resilient development entails tackling both the causes personal, national as well as regional security. What is (mitigation) and the consequences (adaptation) of climate more, climate change is essentially an issue of (intra- and change. Sound mitigation policies consist of providing inter-generational) equity: those who have historically the poor with access to affordable energy and low-carbon contributed least to the problem are the poor in developing technologies that will facilitate socially sustainable countries. The poor are precisely the ones who will be development. At the same time, developed countries must affected first and worst; Bob Watson illustrated this point decrease their dependence on fossil fuels by adopting with multiple graphs and maps.

Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 Anonymous / World Bank / World Anonymous 70 Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses Summaries of Papers and Keynote Addresses 71

alternative energy technologies, developing viable Costs of inaction are huge and existing sources of public Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell What new energy paradigms will develop? Can developed engineering solutions (e.g. Carbon Capture and Storage) financing for adaptation fall woefully short of actual needs. countries exercise the necessary leadership to deal with this and shifting to more sustainable land use practice. With global challenge? Bob Watson concluded that “the future is not pre-ordained Former Prime Minister of Canada and former Secretary respect to the design and implementation of adaptation – we can limit changes in the Earth’s climate but the changes General of the Club of Madrid The Rt. Hon. Campbell drew attention to the fact that interventions, it is vital that the aspirations of local needed in current policies, practices and technologies are “Conflict Related Aspects of Climate Change” (Keynote address) military effectiveness is undermined by climate change; communities be recognized when integrating current substantial.” A long-term stabilization target is needed to weakly governed states will be the most prone to the impacts climate variability and projected changes into sector The Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell began by describing the send an appropriate signal to the private sector and carbon of climate change, and in turn are simultaneously most and national level economic planning for the long-term. complexity and uncertainty of the relationship between market. Equally, intermediate targets and an equitable likely to endure conflict. What do we do? Importantly, Questions regarding who will pay for these changes will climate change, conflict and migration. However, she allocation of emissions rights are crucial to addressing developing countries need to be ensured adequate access to present tough moral and equity concerns. highlighted that in spite of this “dealing with the challenges climate change in a meaningful and effective way. energy. Designing and implementing effective mitigation presented by climate change could in fact, under the right Watson highlighted sound governance mechanisms as policies and activities should be considered a priority in circumstances, be a vehicle for greater cooperation, a greater crucial to delivering the appropriate adaptive responses the developed world. To do so, it is imperative to build sense of a shared faith that we have in the world.” at the local, national, regional and international levels, the capacity of government to deliver on public policy stating that adaptation is a process involving responses What position will the developed countries take in dealing commitments. Echoing the words of Bob Watson, she to interrelated problems in many sectors. Responses may with the challenge of climate change? Can they exercise stressed that good governance is key to addressing the range from financing adaptation to supporting strong the necessary leadership? History is replete with examples relationship between climate change and conflict. It is networks for the exchange of information and good science. in which people come together to deal with global issues. fundamental that “no-regrets” policies be implemented A main challenge when dealing with climate change is and enforced. Finally, Rt. Hon. Campbell reiterated the that projections are largely based on conjecture. Several need to model the social impacts of climate change. unknown questions include how humans will mitigate?

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Her Excellency century. With most of the nation lying less than one meter Sheila Watt-Cloutier petition aimed to educate, inform and encourage people to above sea level the projected rise poses a threat the country’s tackle climate change issues. Ms. Dunya Maumoon very existence. Former Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference Ms. Watt-Cloutier called for solutions that end the cycle of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Maldives The Deputy Minister stressed that the Maldives has not yet “Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change” (Keynote address) victimhood for Indigenous and other vulnerable peoples of resigned itself to that fate. The government has developed a the world. All processes and operations must be rethought “The Human Dimension of Climate Change in the Maldives and With stunning images of Arctic landscapes and Inuit comprehensive program of adaptation with a view to building and development must be re-centered on humanity rather Small Island States” (Keynote address) communities as a backdrop, keynote speaker Sheila Watt- resilience in the economy, protecting vital infrastructure and than on industry. In her words, “A healthy and productive Cloutier shared an emotive and insightful account of the The keynote speech by Her Excellency Ms. Dunya Maumoon safeguarding livelihoods and homes. Moreover, working with spirit of the people is the basis for all successful human place and strength of indigenous wisdom in informing was an impassioned plea to the international community other island nations, the Maldives is pressing for a global development.” Indigenous Peoples are particularly adept people about balanced development and sustainability. to “listen to the voices of the vulnerable” when dealing with agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol from 2012. And in adapting to changes in climate and living in balance She stated, “My story is to always try to tell you the global warming. The Deputy Minister said the immediate crucially, the Maldives is attempting to change our focus on with natural cycles. Their close connection to food sources strength of who we are and how we can contribute to a effects of climate change threaten small island states like the climate change from one dealing with ecosystems to one that and the rhythms of nature require this. Nonetheless, the world that has largely lost its connection to the cycles of Maldives, but the far-reaching impacts will reach into every stresses human rights. With this in mind the government absolute ingenuity of indigenous culture is all too often nature.” In an age of globalization and ever increasing community and neighborhood on the planet. has launched a process at the UN Human Rights Council in overlooked and underutilized. It is time for people to begin interconnectivity, her words reminded us how vital it is to Geneva, which aims to establish an interface between climate to see the indigenous world for what it is – not a passive The Deputy Minister highlighted the effects climate change consider how the global affects the local and in turn how change and the realization of human rights. victim of globalization but a repository of knowledge, a would have on food, access to water and development. In the local affects the global. community of scientists in their own right who can inform particular she focused on how least developed countries The Deputy Minister welcomed the changing political Ms. Watt-Cloutier described evidence of an historic and guide the world to focus on better sustainability for our would be hardest hit by associated climate impacts, landscape, which is providing “a genuine window of opportunity transformation of the environment in the Arctic. For human communities. undermining their attempts to meet the Millennium that could lead to a comprehensive global consensus on example, changes in hunting practices have directly Development Goals (MDGs). climate change”. She cited the Bali roadmap, which established Climate change is complex and requires immediate action. undermined community mechanisms and socialization negotiating pathways on mitigation, adaptation, technology, Ms. Watt-Cloutier spoke for the indigenous communities Turning her attention to the Maldives, the Deputy Minister process for young people. As the Inuit have historically and finance, as cause for optimism. However, she also warned when she stated, “We want to be part of the process from stressed that while climate impacts seem like abstract relied on the fact that environmental factors would be that the current negotiations must not abandon the most day one… My advice is don’t parachute yourselves into the and distant threats for much of the world, for the people constant, such changes are now so great that elders vulnerable and marginalized in the search for compromise. communities but really become a part of who we are and of the Maldives they are daily events. Storm surges and can’t pass on traditions that have evolved throughout what we can offer.” This is a great opportunity to come coastal erosion have already destroyed homes and vital Concluding her address, the Deputy Minister asked the generations. Many Indigenous Peoples are struggling to together to fundamentally change the simple-minded infrastructure; damaged public utilities; and diverted assembled participants to inject urgency and ambition into maintain their way of life; for them, climate change is an notion that unrestrained economic growth can cure all limited financial resources from development to a cycle of climate policy saying “the devastating impacts of global climate enormous cultural and social issue which they believe social ills and lead the way to a better world. We must come destruction and reconstruction. In the medium term climate change have come. They have come first for the Maldives and to be essentially about their right and ability to exist as together particularly for Indigenous Peoples and others who change could lead to the extinction of the islands’ coral reefs, other Small Island States. They have come first for the poor, the Indigenous People. Ms. Watt-Cloutier explained how after contribute least to the problem but have the most to lose. which account for forty percent of GDP. The deputy Minister vulnerable and the voiceless. Will you speak up with us? Will two years of preparation, members of the Inuit community quoted the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report’s projection that you raise your voice? Or will you wait until there is no-one left submitted a petition to preserve their human rights in the sea-levels could rise by ninety centimeters by the end of the to speak for you?” face of the negative repercussions of climate change. The

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Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki To overcome these challenges, Dr. Mayaki stressed the need Lorena Aguilar Gender differences as revealed by women’s economic and for improved information systems, decision making tools social rights have a direct effect in deaths from natural and access to technology. Moreover, enhanced coordination disasters; it follows that prioritizing the empowerment Former Prime Minister of Niger, and current Executive Senior Advisor, IUCN - World Conservation Union with national and international research centers as well as of women when crafting adaptation and risk reduction Director of Rural Hub in Africa “Acknowledging the Linkages: Gender and Climate Change” awareness raising initiatives will all contribute to a greater strategies in crucial. “Challenges of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in understanding of the problems associated with climate Ms. Lorena Aguilar presented a compelling case for Africa” (Keynote address) Women have always been leaders in community revitalization change. He explained the need to promote behavioral acknowledging the significant linkages between gender and natural resource management. Nevertheless, they have Keynote speaker Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki focused on how to change and education so that people will know how to and climate change. Indeed, over the past two decades, the not been afforded equal opportunities in decision making institutionalize adaptation policies in the agricultural respond to the increasing impacts of climate change. climate change discourse has disproportionately focused related to adaptation and mitigation policies and initiatives at sector. He analyzed environmental policies on a number on its threats and projected impacts on areas such as the In addition to this, Dr. Mayaki made a powerful case for the international and national level. Few major conventions of different dimensions and concluded that the challenges environment, economic activity, human health and energy. rethinking development strategies and ensuring that and meetings on climate change note the importance of for the implementation of adaptation policies and However, despite decisive evidence that women are more people at the grassroots level are involved in this process. addressing and promoting gender equality. The time has that theoretical context in which this needs to be done vulnerable to the effects of climate change than men, a It is crucial to recognize climate change as a key obstacle come to make the scientific, community and governments becomes complicated when faced with practicalities of “human face” has yet to be put on the climate change debate. to achieving our human development goals. Dr. Mayaki accountable and to put actions to commitments. implementation at an institutional level. closed his speech with a thought-provoking question: how Ms. Aguilar notes that this heightened vulnerability is not Gender inequalities are magnified by climate change. Given Dr. Mayaki outlined internal and external factors on can governments engage in social development through due to the fact that women are “naturally weaker”; rather, that gender equality is a precondition for sustainable which successful policy implementation depends. At climate change issues? This question puts a human face on women face different vulnerabilities than men due to their development and poverty reduction, climate change the national level, leadership in political systems and policy decisions related to climate change and inspired lively gender condition. More specifically, many women live in threatens to set back development progress. Conversely, availability of resources will heavily determine to what discussion and debate among the workshop participants. conditions of social exclusion which limit their abilities to achieving development goals and gender equality will extent policy implementation succeeds. He stated that in survive when disaster strikes. reduce the impacts of climate change. It is therefore vital to West Africa, the level of resources is not proportionate to Dress codes can restrict women’s ability to move quickly, address these linkages between climate change, gender and the level of aspirations to address the problem of climate while behavioral restrictions can hinder their ability to the Millennium Development Goals. change. Moreover, external factors such as international re-locate without their husband’s, father’s or brother’s conventions and donor policy can either help or hinder What can be done? Suggested actions include: identify and consent. For example, the clothes that women wear in this process. Dr. Mayaki deliberated how institutional analyze gender-specific impact and protection measures rural Bangladesh hamper running and swimming, and mechanisms may be strengthened to update environmental related to the impacts of climate change; give voice to some women cannot leave their household without a male policies when the environment itself is not a major priority women and gender experts in all decisions related to climate relative. Some of these circumstances were responsible in West Africa and more specifically, when the climate change; take action to ensure UNFCCC compliance with for the fact that in the 1991 cyclone disaster, 90% of the change agenda in West Africa is still not very well defined. human rights frameworks, international and national 140,000 people killed in Bangladesh were women. Moving from policy formation to policy implementation is commitments on gender equality and equity. complicated by these factors.

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Implications of Climate of armed conflict has been observed. What is more, the Assessing the Impact of Climate migration patterns. This type of migration is shaped by empirical evidence for a general relationship between the severity and geography of a crisis, the ability of a Change for Armed Conflict resource scarcity and armed conflict is indicative at best; Change on Migration and Conflict household to respond, evacuation opportunities, existing By Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole By Clionadh Raleigh, Lisa Jordan and Idean Salehyan statistical literature, in contrast, has failed to converge and perpetuating vulnerabilities, available relief, and Magnus Theisen on any significant or robust association between resource intervening government policies. For the most part, scarcity and civil war. Accordingly, the authors propose In their paper, Raleigh, Jordan and Salehyan evaluate environmental migration is internal and short-term with What do we really know about environmental factors nine areas which should receive high priority in future the claim that the frequency and severity of chronic minimal potential for instigating conflict. However, while and armed conflict? The paper by Buhaug, Gleditsch and research on the topic: increase focus on plausible catalysts environmental hazards and sudden onset disasters caused unstable urban and rural demographics are related to higher Thiesen offers an assessment of theories and evidence for of conflict; increase focus on natural disasters; investigate by climate change may alter typical migration patterns of risks of civil war and low level communal conflicts during a relationship between climate change and armed conflict. the agency of involved individuals; collect time-varying communities and entire countries. The authors definitively periods of environmental stress are common. The authors identify important areas for future research measures of resource availability; develop disaggregated conclude that large scale community relocation due to With particular regard to migrations, Raleigh et al. draw and conclude that although a lack of robust findings in research designs; acknowledge and account for regional either chronic or sudden onset hazards is and continues to attention to the linkage between the economic and political the general literature on environmental conflict limits the implications; widen the definition of conflict to include non- be an unlikely response. Five main conclusions inform the vulnerabilities of households and communities. They give ability to prescribe appropriate policy recommendations, state conflicts; explore the influence of climate change for development of an alternate framework through which the careful consideration to the role that governments and some insights for targeting future development and peace the course and outcome of ongoing conflicts; and combine likely consequences of climate hazards may be examined in external organizations play in catalyzing migrations and building efforts may be gained by examining the indirect research traditions to test complex relationships in a the future. design policy matrices to compare policies designed to nature of this relationship. In view of this, the authors systematic and generalizable manner. First, the authors underscore the fact that disasters vary conclude with six recommendations to guide a future address environmental migration. considerably in their potential to instigate migration. Indeed, research agenda. In addition to investing in more rigorous, systematic Finally, the authors highlight that the above-mentioned research, a more systematic environmental accounting when discussing post-disaster human security it is important findings should be considered with multiple caveats. The paper identifies sea-level rise, increasing resource with a view to effectively target countermeasures and to consider people’s vulnerability as a function of prevailing First, they have relied heavily on case studies of previous scarcity and the intensification of natural disasters as mitigation of conflict is needed. Similarly, drastic mitigation political, social and economic forces. Individual, community disasters to determine main points of their framework and three processes brought on by climate change which could and adaptation measures themselves may themselves have and national vulnerabilities shape responses as much as consequently have limited perspective of projected “worst lead to a reduction or loss of livelihoods for millions of implications for security; these merit an assessment as well. disaster effects do. Second, diversifying income streams is case” climate change scenarios. In addition, the social people around the world. This effect could in turn, incite Indeed, inclusion of security issues in the next round of IPCC the predominant avenue through which people mitigate consequences of climate change have been, up to now, political instability, economic instability, migration, assessments would give this issue the prominence and solid increased hazards from climate change. To this extent, labor significantly under-researched. This framework can inform social fragmentation and inappropriate responses all of research foundation it needs. Meanwhile, as knowledge in migration in developing countries to rural and urban areas is future studies on victim profiles and serve as a basis for the which are potential catalysts for increased incidence of this area improves, investing in sustainable development a common component of diversified local economies. Labor development of prediction models on migration and conflict social instability and armed conflict. Clearly, the extent to policies may be the most effective way of promoting peace migration is a common coping strategy during periods of using climate inputs. which any of these mechanisms increase the likelihood of and security among vulnerable societies. Indeed, vulnerable chronic environmental degradation; it lessens burdens on organized violence significantly depends on country-specific societies must be prioritized as they will suffer doubly, faced families to provide and simultaneously increases remittances. and contextual factors. with both security challenges and threatened livelihoods due Labor migration is typically internal, temporary and circular. to the impacts of climate change. Interestingly, the authors note during the past 15 years, The authors observe that when a sudden disaster as the widespread impacts of climate change have become strikes or a chronic disaster persists (i.e. drought or clearer, a dramatic reduction in the frequency and severity famine), communities will typically engage in distress

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Pro-poor Climate Change synergies between poverty reduction and building resilience The Role of Local Institutions in processes through which adaptation occurs and promote to climate change, and clarifies how vulnerability and risk appropriate coping strategies. Enhancing the capacity of Adaptation in the Urban are influenced by income-level, age and gender. Adaptation to Climate Change these local institutions is critical to supporting adaptation, Centers of Low and Middle- By Arun Agrawal particularly as the intensity of adverse future climate The paper then highlights three reasons why strengthening, impacts will likely increase. Furthermore, Agrawal Income Countries protection and adapting the assets and capabilities of Arun Agrawal’s paper examines the relationships between suggests that the role of local institutions and linkages By Caroline Moser and David Satterthwaite with Jorgelina individuals, households and communities (“autonomous climate-related vulnerabilities, adaptation practices, between them be understood before additional resources Hardoy, Sheridan Bartlett, Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, adaptive capacity”) have far more importance than in institutions and external interventions to show the role and external support be provided. By recognizing that Hannah Reid, Aromar Revi and Cecilia Tacoli high-income countries. The first is the limitations in urban and importance of local institutions in climate change. He vulnerable groups generally have lower institutional access governments’ adaptive capacity, especially in providing proposes an analytical framework to classify adaptation than more powerful groups, such an analysis will increase This paper describes how urban centers in low- and middle- needed protective infrastructure and services to low-income practices based on their relationship to different forms efficacy of adaptation investments. On a similar note, income countries concentrate a large proportion of those populations. The second is the unwillingness of many of environmental risks and examines past adaptation focus on territorial development strategies that take both most at risk from the effects of climate change. This will city or municipal governments to work with low-income responses to climate change, their impacts on the vulnerabilities and capacities into account is necessary. happen as poor people in such centers see their lives, assets, groups, especially those living in informal settlements. The livelihoods of the rural poor, and the role of institutions The multiple linkages among external interventions and local environmental quality and future prosperity threatened third is the key role of assets in helping households and in facilitating external support for adaptation. Agrawal adaptations can only be understood through a focus on the by the increasing risk of storms, flooding, landslides, communities cope with disasters. outlines five main adaptation strategies which households mediating role of different institutions in a given territory, and heat waves and drought – as well as by overloading water, and communities have developed to adapt to climate their influence on production and adaptation possibilities. drainage and energy supply systems. It starts by identifying The paper also develops and operational tool – an asset- based framework – that serves to highlight the measures variability. These include mobility, storage, diversification, the urgency of the situation, and highlights why it is For better planning and implementation, Agrawal and interventions needed to address not only long-term communal pooling and market exchange. essential to focus on urban climate change because of the proposes that institutional coordination across scales protection from climate change, but also to support low- scale of the urban population at risk. Focusing on three types of institutions – public, private, must be improved. Greater capacity to adapt locally will income households and communities to cope with extreme- and civic – a review of case studies indicates that local depend on the extent to which local institutions are To better understand the problem as well as recommend weather related disasters during pre-disaster damage institutions play a crucial role in shaping adaptation more centrally involved in national planning for and solutions to address it, the paper introduces a pro-poor, limitation, immediate post-disaster responses and rebuilding. to climate change: they connect households to local implementation of adaptation policies and projects and asset-based framework. As a conceptual approach it helps resources and collective action, determine flows of the degree to which these activities are mainstreamed to identify the asset vulnerability of poor communities, The focus on strengthening of the asset base of households external support to different social groups, and link local at different levels. Similarly, an adaptive perspective on households and individuals within urban areas to climate and communities is also a key means to build more populations to national interventions. The lessons from institutional development will be required when designing change. It also considers the role of assets in increasing competent, accountable local governments. A substantial this review are finally used to make recommendations and implementing for risk management interventions. A the adaptive capacity of low-income households and part of adaptive capacity therefore relates to the capacity of about the operational significance of local institutions and willingness to experiment, tolerate mistakes and promote communities. Asset vulnerability and a lack of resilience local communities to make demands on local governments institutional analysis in the context of climate change. social learning and behavioral change when determining to risk is then explored in terms of four broad categories, and, wherever possible, to work in partnership with them. best ways for institutions to facilitate local adaptation will namely: a) those groups who are particularly vulnerable The paper concludes by discussing the roles for national Specifically, Agrawal recommends the need for a greater be crucial. and need long-term protective action; b) those unable to governments and international agencies in supporting role for institutional partnerships in facilitating adaptation. adaptive capacity at all levels. take immediate pre-damage limitation; c) those unable Partnerships among local public and civil society Agrawal identifies three areas in which far more research to respond immediately post disaster, and d) those most institutions as well as between private and civil society is needed to improve existing knowledge about the role of vulnerable during rebuilding. This highlights the many institutions can greatly enhance informal institutional institutions in adaptation and adaptive development.

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The first of these concerns the sheer lack of in-depth of climate hazards such as droughts, floods, storms, and Climate Change and Agrarian Such changes and many more will lead to stronger empirical and comparative work on adaptation and hurricanes, the conventional response has been disaster competition between growing pastoral communities for institutions. Although it is clear that adaptation to climate relief, disaster risk management, and emergency support Societies in Drylands access to scarcer water and pasture resources. One coping change will require tremendous social and institutional to affected regions and populations. Greater adaptive By John Morton and Simon Anderson strategy pastoralists have pursued is further livelihood adjustments in the coming decades, the state of knowledge capacity is seen as the appropriate answer to climate diversification (e.g. shifting away from cattle production to on the subject is in no more than its infancy. This paper hazards that unfold more slowly – increasing average Due to their current ecological and socio-economic status, more drought-resistant species such as camels). The paper has made no more than a beginning in thinking about the temperatures, erratic rainfall, or rise in sea levels. The dryland dwellers will be disproportionately affected by outlines numerous related coping mechanisms. important conceptual bases for thinking about adaptation best ways to increase adaptive capacity to withstand both climate change. The paper by Morton and Anderson What can be done? Morton and Anderson outline several in relation to the livelihoods of the rural poor, ways to kinds of climate hazards and the role of institutions in examines the current status of drylands and their policy responses specific to dryland areas which range think about rural institutions in the context of adaptation, such integration is little understood at present. A vision of inhabitants, identifies the likely climate change impacts from supporting dryland least developed countries to and the specific effects of rural institutions on adaptation territorial development that focuses both on the needs of on drylands, and explores what the main socio-economic engage with climate change negotiations to ensure that practices. We still know relatively little about each of these households and communities in a given territory and their components of climate vulnerability are. Finally, the post-2012 agreement is shaped in ways responsive to their areas, let alone how institutional access and articulation shape specific vulnerabilities and capacities is crucial in moving authors outline opportunities for effective adaptation and priorities, to mainstreaming adaptation into development adaptive capacity and external interventions. The tentative toward the answers about how disaster risk management mitigation strategies for dryland dwellers. planning at the national, sectoral and local/district levels. findings of this paper need more work on these issues. and adaptive development can be integrated. Morton and Anderson begin their analysis with a detailed Mainstreaming may take the form of adjusting water The second area of research concerns the idea of adaptive characterization of drylands systems. Drylands cover management at these levels in order to reduce risks from development which the review suggests as a means through approximately 40% of the world’s land surface and are flooding, and scaling up pilot community-based adaptation which to improve the ability of households and social home to more than two billion people most of who live projects to ensure documentation and rapid replication groups to address risks, but also improve livelihoods. The in rural areas of developing countries. This population of these activities. With specific regard to pastoralists, it nature of institutions necessary to facilitate adaptive bears the lowest levels of human well-being, the lowest is critical to pursue policies which enable herd mobility development, however, remains unclear. Are current per capita GDP and the highest infant mortality rates. As while securing rights to critical resources, and which enable institutional arrangements at different scales appropriate the livelihoods of dryland dwellers are highly dependent the building robust conflict management institutions and to improve risk management capacity of different actors? on climate sensitive sectors, improved progress towards effective drought mitigation systems. These are but a few How can institutions incorporate risk management more development will require interventions that equally address examples of policy directions which can strengthen the urgently in their mandate? What are the institutional ecosystem degradation, mainstream appropriate natural resilience of pastoralists to climate change. changes necessary to bring the urgency of adaptation to resource management and build upon the capacities of Morton and Anderson conclude by outlining a future climate risks home to those who are likely to be affected by people and institutions. research agenda which encourages focus on issues such such risks most? Answers to these questions require more The work details how pastoral systems have already been as improved governance and representation of dryland in depth research than is currently available. undergoing changes and confronting new challenges dwellers and the need to identify social policy alternatives Finally, there is broad agreement in the literature on brought about by climate change. For example, migration where adaptation fails. climate change that it will produce both sudden and slow- as climate adaptation is predicted to increase population Several gaps in knowledge with regard to drylands and onset impacts. Far more work remains to be done on how pressure and destabilize property rights systems; in climate change are identified. The most obvious gap from institutions across scales can coordinate human responses addition, new disease burdens will emerge as rainfall a developmental perspective is the testing and ground- to these two broad types of climate impacts. In the case and temperature changes begin to alter more and more.

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truthing of climate adaptation theory, particularly with • Conflict management particularly between pastoralists Climate Change, Human inter alia, the strengthening of the asset base of rural regard to equity, through application to actual cases of and croppers; livelihoods; arrangements for orderly migration; and climate adaptation by the poor. We have very little evidence Vulnerability, and Social institutions for conflict resolution. Moreover, the authors • Migration management and an analysis of the success how the costs and benefits of climate adaptation are Risk Management recommend supporting existing and future research efforts and failures of sedentarization policies; and distributed in reality and how greater equity can be brought By Rasmus Heltberg, Steen Lau Jorgensen, and Paul so that they may be multisectoral and multi-disciplinary into the distribution process. • Livestock and famine/food security early warning Bennett Siegel in nature as well as based on consensus regarding key systems and weather-based insurance approaches. terms such as adaptation, risk and vulnerability and on Other areas identified as under-researched topics are This paper by Heltberg et al. is motivated by what the efforts. Accordingly, greater cross-fertilization between the listed below: authors perceive to be important gaps in the literature on professional communities working on issues of climate risk • Differentiated effects of climate change impacts on climate change. More specifically, they explore the present management may be fostered. In this case, shared platforms dryland dwellers; lack of attention to how risks associated with climate must reflect shared basic definitions of certain terms. change might affect households; the inconsistent use of key • Differentiation in climate adaptive capacity of dryland The authors note that insurance, particularly index-based terms such as risk, vulnerability and adaptation; and the dwellers; weather insurance is not a panacea; indeed, in certain lack of clarity on the relationship between risks associated circumstances, such schemes may be inappropriate or not with climate change, adaptation and vulnerability. • Interactions between short-term coping, long-term cost-effective in the long-run. Indeed, insurance may not be adaptation, local institutions and external policy To enhance this analysis, the authors present a social a suitable response for very slow-onset climate impacts and environments; risk management and asset-based conceptual framework when not considered within an overall risk-management and adaptation strategy preventing loss will often be more • Governance and representation of dryland dwellers in intended to help inform the design of interventions that cost effective than a loss-based insurance. decision making for climate change adaptation; can increase the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable as well as maintain or increase the opportunities for development. Finally, Heltberg et al. warn against falling into the trap • Climate information needs of dryland dwellers and This framework is applied to adaptation interventions at of “business as usual”. Although much of what they other stakeholders, including service providers and the household, local, national and international levels and propose essentially is good development practice, it goes local government, and across different timescales; their linkages. Several “no-regrets” social policy options for beyond business as usual. Their approach entails a more equitable risk management and improved economic growth • Appropriate technological responses to climate change sophisticated understanding of risk management which are presented followed by a discussion of the role of social by private and public sectors; will require designing interventions in different ways in protection and insurance instruments in this context. anticipation of changing risk patterns, developing and • Institutional responses, what are the bases to build The analysis defines a future research agenda centered on disseminating appropriate technologies and building upon in different drylands context; appropriate adaptation policy, and necessary research and knowledge of specific threats and coping skills to name but • How adaptation and mitigation can be linked to achieve institutional coordination for carrying out this agenda. a few examples. synergies in drylands contexts; In particular, the authors emphasize a need to prioritize In terms of directions for future research, the authors and sequence interventions, support local adaptation • Social policy alternatives where adaptation fails; argue for the need for shared platforms around definitions, and scale up and design social policy in such as way that concepts, data, monitoring, research, and capacity building. it manages risks to climate change. This may include They first argue that it is important to settle the confusion managing displacement and violent conflicts through,

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over definitions of human vulnerability (including relations perspectives. These institutions might consider the global Andy White Security of forest tenure has been increasing among to risk and adaptation). They recommend the adoption of the negative externalities associated with climate change, and Coordinator, Rights & Resources Initiative communities and Indigenous Peoples, however, IPCC definition: vulnerability is “the degree to which a system the global positive externalities associated with successful “Social Aspects of Mitigation” the majority of forest land is still administered by is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of adaptation to climate change. governments. It is important to recognize the private climate change, including climate variability and extremes”. property owned by the group because this gives Collaboration is easily thwarted by institutional silos and by Shifting the focus to the social aspects of mitigation, Andy communities a sense of place and dignity and enables The authors propose four distinct pillars for the social differences in objectives, philosophies, and vocabularies. A White provided insight into past approaches to development adaptation to change without losing valuable assets. Legal science research agenda on adaptation: (1) monitoring more integrated approach to managing risks associated with in forest areas, the urgent need to recognize ownership recognition is not sufficient. This requires a strong internal change; (2) predicting the consequences; (3) assessing policy climate change is needed. Such an approach would span rights of communities and Indigenous Peoples over forest organization and political will to protect rights and access alternatives; and (4) institutional arrangements and sharing sector-specific approaches, disaster management and social lands, and the shape of things to come. He concluded with to legal support and arbitration. the costs internationally. protection. A good starting point would be adoption of recommendations for the role the international community universally shared basic operational definitions of key terms and the World Bank can play in scaling up efforts to advance Andy White provided recommendations for actions Areas of research would include what shares of adaptation such as risk, vulnerability, and adaptation. This would help equitable forest governance and development. which the global development community, governments, costs, for which communities, local and national governments these different departments and coalitions communicate communities and civil society, and the private sector should to finance (the problem of additional costs); how to deal As the demand for forest land is currently much higher than better and discover commonalities. Moreover, there is also take in order to scale up investments which recognize with cross-border spillover effects such as migration or its supply, this unbalanced relationship has created political a need for collaboration on issues related to data collection, land ownership and amplify local voices in all forest shared rivers; how to provide incentives for adaptive action; turbulence which pits poor forest peoples against mounting monitoring of climate changes and their impacts, policy development initiatives. Specifically, he stated that the and how to develop international policies and institutions pressures of advancing economies to invest, gain political research, and capacity building. global development community should push the REDD so they can handle the challenge of climate change influence and stimulate trade. As Andy White stated, the (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) world is heading for a “last great global land grab” as the agenda and all related funding to support the recognition of previously viewed “hinterland” becomes more valuable and customary land rights and equitable governance. Moreover, vulnerable. As the world’s global poor try to hold on to their he advocated for improved facilitation of information- only capital assets – their land – an increase in the number sharing and promoting transparency initiatives. of conflicts over land can be expected. The World Bank in particular can contribute to these In the past 50 years, approaches to development in forest efforts by developing standards and priorities for carbon areas have shifted from a focus on industrial extraction and funds through working with communities; including the export; to environmental protection; to social, participatory human rights aspect in World Bank’s social safeguard forestry; to today’s market-based conservation. While these policies; and exploring sector studies and research to approaches have improved over time, they are all imposed include forest rights, growth and development. from the outside and do not reflect local aspirations.

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Navin K. Rai and technology that is needed to live in a productive protective Lead Social Development Specialist and Indigenous balance with the planet. Speakers Peoples Coordinator, The World Bank Ms. Adamson asserted that IPs possess a profound paradigm of protection and production, intricately tied Rebecca Adamson together across all sectors of Indigenous societies, such as President, First Peoples Worldwide conservation, economics, natural resource management, health, education and development. In contrast, the current climate change paradigm of mitigation and adaptation Dennis Martinez takes a capitalized structure for conservation protection Co-Chair, Indigenous Peoples’ Restoration Network of the that is very costly, and does not address the fundamental Society for Ecological Restoration International need for accountability of place. Indigenous societies have Adamson, Rebecca “Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change” (panel discussion) proven that systems designed for protection and production President, First Peoples Worldwide rely upon structures that maintain fairness and uphold Indigenous Peoples account for 5% of the world’s population, accountability as a key and immutable design principle. Ms. Rebecca Adamson, a Cherokee, is the President and yet they protect and care for 22% of the Earth’s land surface, This indigenous paradigm of protection and production Founder of First Peoples Worldwide (1997), and the Founder 80% of remaining biodiversity, and 90% of the cultural diversity allows tremendous decentralized innovation and low cost of First Nations Development Institute (1980). She has on this planet. Navin Rai gave an informative presentation on technologies to develop at the grassroots level and requires worked with grassroots tribal communities, and nationally the historical role of Indigenous Peoples as active stewards of systems of accountability and fairness in order to operate. as an advocate on local tribal issues since 1970. Her work this heritage with full enforcement regime by way of customary contributed towards the establishment of a new field of In light of this, Ms. Adamson argued for a new role for practice and traditional institutions. culturally appropriate, values-driven development which the World Bank: namely, to ensure that operations be helped create: i) the first reservation-based micro-enterprise Dennis Martinez explained the brilliance of Traditional designed to support adaptation to climate change and not loan fund in the United States; ii) the first tribal investment Ecological Knowledge (TEK) and bridged the differing further compound the vulnerability of Indigenous Peoples model; iii) a national movement for reservation land conceptual frameworks behind TEK and Western science. or undermine their customary rights to lands and natural reform; and iv) legislation that established new standards Martinez presented numerous examples of low-cost local resources. There is a strong need for research on the impact of accountability regarding federal trust responsibility for technologies developed by Indigenous Peoples with thousands climate change will have on asset-devaluation and poor Native Americans. of years of empirical data proving their efficacy. people’s wealth and begin to incorporate designs that emanate from the bottom up. New skills will need to be Adamson is on the Board of Directors for the Calvert Social Rebecca Adamson continued with presenting a persuasive case honed, including listening to and trusting poor people to Investment Fund (the largest family of socially responsible for considering Indigenous Peoples as unique repositories of guide the decisions that most affect their lives. There needs to funds), and co-founded the Calvert High Social Impact learning and knowledge on coping with climate change and be clear, inclusive, transparent, fair principles for designing Investments, which was the first financial instrument whereby adapting to major environmental changes at local level stating the systems and directly connecting capital to community mutual fund shareholders and other individual investors could that Indigenous Peoples have been too long at the margins of as well as equivalency and fairness in resources, particularly invest in community development loan funds. this debate on climate change. Yet, they seem to be the only with regard to resource deployment and utilization. people with a proven understanding of the social engineering

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Agrawal, Arun Aguilar, Lorena Ahmad, Junaid Buhaug, Halvard Associate Professor, School of Natural Senior Advisor on Gender Sector Manager Senior Researcher, Center for the Study of Civil War Resources and Environment World Conservation Union Social Development in the South Asia Region, World Bank International Peace Research Institute University of Michigan Junaid Ahmad is Sector Manager for Social Development Halvard Buhaug is a senior researcher of the Center for Arun Agrawal works on the politics of international Lorena Aguilar is senior gender advisor to the World in the World Bank’s South Asia Region. Mr. Ahmad joined the Study of Civil War (CSCW) at the International Peace development and environmental conservation, with Conservation Union and regional coordinator of the Social the Bank in February 1991 as a Young Professional. He has Research Institute (PRIO), Oslo. He also teaches at the a focus on institutional change, property rights, poverty, Area in Mesoamerica. She is an international advisor for since held various positions, his most recent assignment Department of Sociology and Political Science at Norwegian and biodiversity. He has written extensively on indigenous numerous organizations, governments and universities on being Regional Team Leader for the Water and Sanitation University of Science and Technology. His research areas are knowledge, community-based conservation, common topics related to water, environmental health, and gender Program in New Delhi. Drawing on his cross-sectoral conflict data management, the geography of refugee flows, property, population and resources, and environmental and community participation. With a master’s degree in experience of public finance, local government, and and dyadic patterns of civil war. He has published numbers identities. His research interests include the decentralization anthropology, Aguilar, who majored in cultural ecology at the infrastructure, Junaid’s priorities are to consolidate and of articles on conflict, including “Skaper klimaendring krig? of environmental policy (especially forestry and wildlife), University of Kansas, has worked for ten years in the field implement the Regional Social Development Strategy, to [Will Climate Change Lead to More War?].” Dr. Buhaug with a focus on South Asia. of development and in the design of public policy projects in support the Region’s focus on scaling up services to the local received his PhD in Political Science from Norwegian Central America. For the past eight years she has been actively and community levels, and to assist the Country Teams to University of Science and Technology. engaged in the incorporation of social and gender aspects into address the challenges of social inclusion and conflict. the use and conservation of natural resources in Mesoamerica. Over the past two years over 6,000 people have been trained methodologies she developed. Ms. Aguilar has published 20 books and several publications about gender and environment, environmental health, and public policy involving equity issues, that have been translated into several languages and are widely referenced in worldwide project implementation

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Buvinic, Mayra Campbell, Kim, Rt. Hon. Chassard, Joëlle Devarajan, Shantayanan Sector Director Former Prime Minister of Canada and Manager Chief Economist Poverty Reduction Gender, World Bank Former Secretary to the Club of Madrid Carbon Finance Unit, World Bank South Asia Vice President Office, World Bank

Mayra Buvinic is an internationally respected expert on Kim Campbell served as Canada’s nineteenth and first Joëlle Chassard manages the World Bank’s carbon finance Shantayanan Devarajan is the Chief Economist of the World gender and social development, and the World Bank’s female Prime Minister in 1993. After her tenure as Prime business, a portfolio of 10 carbon funds and facilities with Bank’s South Asia Region. Since joining the World Bank senior spokesperson on gender and development issues. Minister, Campbell was a Fellow at the Institute of Politics participations from 16 governments and 65 companies in 1991, he has been a Principal Economist and Research Before joining the Bank in 2005, she was Chief of the (Spring 1994) and the Joan Shorenstein Center for the totalling $2.1 billion. The funds purchase carbon credits Manager for Public Economics in the Development Research Social Development Division at the Inter-American Study of Press and Politics (1994-1995) at the John F. from projects in the Bank’s client countries, under the Group, as well as the Chief Economist of the Human Development Bank and the Special Advisor on Violence Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. She served flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol---- the Clean Development Network. He was the Director of the World Prevention. Prior to this, she was a founding member as the Canadian Consul-General in Los Angeles from Development Mechanism in developing countries and Joint Development Report 2004, Making Services Work for Poor and President of the International Center for Research 1996-2000. In 2001 Ms. Campbell became a Fellow at the Implementation in countries with economies in transition. People. Before 1991, he was on the faculty of Harvard on Women (ICRW). Ms. Buvinic holds a PhD and a new Center for Public Leadership at the Kennedy School Close to 100 emission reductions purchase agreements University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. master’s degree both in social psychology from the and then was invited to join the faculty as a lecturer and have been signed, representing 200 million tons of carbon The author or co-author of over 100 publications, Mr. University of Wisconsin. remains an Honorary Fellow of the center. dioxide equivalent. Devarajan’s research covers public economics, trade policy, natural resources and the environment, and general- Kim Campbell was educated at the University of British Ms. Chassard graduated with a master’s degree in business equilibrium modeling of developing countries. Born in Sri Columbia (BA, 1969, LLB, 1983) and the London School administration from HEC, France, and a master’s degree in Lanka, Mr. Devarajan received his B.A. in mathematics from of Economics (Doctoral studies in Soviet Government, international relations from the Johns Hopkins University Princeton University and his Ph. D. in economics from the ABD, 1970-73) where she is an Honorary Fellow. She School of Advanced International Studies. Prior to joining University of California at Berkeley. holds seven honorary doctorates. Her best-selling political the World Bank, she was an economist at Société Générale memoir Time and Chance was published in 1996 by in Paris. Doubleday Canada.

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Ferris, Elizabeth G. Georgieva, Kristalina Guerrero, Isabel Jorgensen, Steen Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program and Co-Director, Acting Vice President Country Director of India, World Bank Sector Director Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement, Brookings Sustainable Development Network, World Bank Social Development, World Bank Institution Ms. Guerrero joined the Bank in 1982 as a Young Professional. Steen Lau Jorgensen is currently the Director for Social Dr. Elizabeth G. Ferris is Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Kristalina Georgieva assumed responsibilities for strategy and She has since held various positions, her most recent assignment Development in the Sustainable Development Network of Program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC and Co- operations in the World Bank Sustainable Development Network on being Country Director, Colombia and Mexico in the Latin the World Bank. Prior to this appointment, he was acting Director of the Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement. April 9, 2007. With the World Bank since 1993, Kristalina has held America and the Caribbean Vice Presidency. Vice President for the Environment and Socially Sustainable She also teaches a graduate course in Georgetown University’s a number of technical and managerial positions in Bank operations Development network. In his more than 20 years in the School of Foreign Service. and on issues of environment and sustainable development. In this position, Ms. Guerrero’s top priorities are to: 1) lead Bank, he has worked on strategy and operational activities Prior to joining Brookings in November 2006, Dr. Ferris spent 20 Prior to joining the World Bank in 1993, she held a range of the Bank’s engagement with an important partner and a across a number of themes including human, economic and years working in the field of international humanitarian response, academic and consulting positions in Bulgaria, the United Kingdom, significant work program in close collaboration with IFC and social development, as well as governance and community most recently in Geneva, Switzerland at the World Council of and the US, and has lectured on development topics in a large MIGA; 2) build on the scaling-up in the social sectors that has empowerment. Mr. Jorgensen has also held corporate jobs in Churches. She has also served as Chair of the International Council number of universities around the world. Kristalina Georgieva already taken place, with particular emphasis on engagement the Bank working for Regional and Senior Management. of Voluntary Agencies (ICVA), as Research Director for the Life & received her PhD in Economics and her M. A. in Political Economy at the sub-national level; and 3) monitor the performance of Mr. Jorgensen is the co-author of two strategy papers, Peace Institute in Uppsala, Sweden, as Director of the Church World and Sociology from the University of National and World Economy the Bank’s portfolio and to continue to set high standards for “Empowering People by Transforming Institutions: Social Service Immigration and Refugee Program in New York. She has in Sofia. She also did post-graduate research and studies in natural the Banks’ relationship, products and services to counterparts Development in World Bank Organizations” and the “Social been a professor at several US universities and served as a Fulbright resource economics and environmental policy in the London in India. Protection Sector Strategy from Safety Net to Springboard”, as professor to the Universidad Autónoma de México in Mexico City. School of Economics School and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. well as academic publications on community development and She has written or edited six books and many articles on poverty analysis. humanitarian and human rights issues which have been published Mr. Jorgensen holds a post-graduate degree in Economics in both academic and policy journals. Her current research interests from the University of Aarhus, Denmark. focus on the politics of humanitarian action and on the role of civil society in protecting displaced populations.

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Joshi-Ghani, Abha Kagia, Ruth Kende-Robb, Caroline Little, Peter D. Sector Manager Sector Director, Sector Manager Professor of Anthropology Finance, Economics and Urban, World Bank Human Development, World Bank Social Development, World Bank Emory University

Ms. Abha Joshi-Ghani is Urban Sector Manager for the Ruth Kagia joined the Bank in August 1990 after a career Caroline Kende-Robb is the Sector Manager for Social Development Dr. Peter D. Little is Professor of Anthropology at Emory University, Finance, Economics, and Urban Department (FEU) in the in public service in Africa spanning close to 20 years. For at the World Bank. Prior to her current assignment, she was the Atlanta, Georgia. He has also held positions as Chair and Professor Sustainable Development Network Vice Presidency. the first six years at the Bank, she worked as an education first Social Development Specialist recruited by the International of Anthropology, University of Kentucky (1994-2007), Research specialist in the Africa and the East Asia Regions. She has Monetary Fund, with responsibility for promoting a greater poverty Associate Professor, State University of New York (1999-2004), and Ms. Joshi-Ghani joined the Bank in 1992 as Financial served as a Human Development Sector Manager in the and social development focus in Fund-supported programs. At Program Director and Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Officer in the Cofinancing and Financial Advisory Africa region, a Director for Strategy and Operations in the the IMF, Ms. Kende-Robb also worked with IMF country teams Development Anthropology, Binghamton, New York (1983-1994). Services Department. In 1999, she was assigned to Human Development Network anchor, and an Education to develop poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) and poverty During the past 27 years, Dr. Little has researched and directed the East Asia Region’s Thailand Country Office as Sector Director for Education, the position she currently reduction strategy papers (PRSP). interdisciplinary programs on development and globalization, natural a Senior Infrastructure Specialist. Her most recent holds. In her current position, Mrs. Kagia has provided Ms. Kende-Robb has an MSc from the London School of Economics in resources management, pastoralism and risk management, and assignment was Lead Infrastructure Specialist in the strategic oversight and coordination of the Bank’s education Social Policy in Developing Countries and has published a book titled, drought and food insecurity in several African countries, but with Urban and Water unit of South Asia Region’s Sustainable sector staffing and sector work program. She has also led the Can the Poor Influence Policy? Participatory Poverty Assessments in the primary emphasis on eastern Africa, including the African Horn. Development Department. implementation of the Millenium Development Goal agenda Developing World. on education including the establishment of the Education Dr Little has published more than 100 journal articles, book chapters, For All-fast track initiative as well as the preparation of and research reports and eight books. Among his major publications several policy and strategic documents in education including are Somalia: Economy Without State (2003; Talbot Book Prize and reports on secondary education, education in post-conflict Choice Academic Book Award), Understanding and Reducing Persistent countries, education and economic growth, and has recently Poverty in Africa (with C. Barrett and M. Carter, 2008), The Elusive edited a book on the key development achievements of the Granary: Herder, Farmer, and State in Northern Kenya (1992), and World Bank 1995-2005. Lands at Risk in the Third World: Local Level Perspectives (with M. Horowitz, 1987).

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Maumoon, Dunya Mayaki, Ibrahim Morton, John Moser, Caroline Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Former Prime Minister of Niger and Social Anthropologist Director, Global Urban Research Centre, Maldives Current Executive Director, Rural Hub In Francophone Africa Natural Resources Institute School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Her Excellency Ms. Dunya Maumoon was appointed as the After working as Public Administration Professor in Niger Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs on 15 March 2007. Since (1975-1978 and 1982-1985) and Technical Advisor (1978- John Morton is Professor of Development Anthropology, and Caroline Moser is the Director of the Global Urban Research her appointment, and as the head of the International Affairs 1982) and Ministry of Planning (1985-1987), Mr. Mayaki Associate Research Director (Social Sciences) at the Natural Centre, School of Environment and Development University Directorate of the Ministry, Ms. Maumoon has played an active occupied the position of General Secretary at the SOMAIR Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, UK. A social of Manchester. She is also a Visiting Fellow at Brookings role in promoting the concerns of the Maldives at various (AREVA subsidiary). Between 1996 and 1999, he was successively anthropologist by training, he studied for a BA at the University Institution and a Senior Research Associate, Overseas international fora, including the UN and the World Bank. Minister of Foreign Affairs, then Prime Minister of the of Cambridge, and gained a PhD from the University of Hull. After Development Institute, London. Previously she was Lead Ms. Maumoon also has extensive experience on the promotion Republic of Niger. periods working as a consultant and researcher for a number of Specialist, Social Development, Latin America and the of human rights and the impacts of climate change. In this NGOs and international agencies in Sudan and Pakistan, he moved Caribbean Region, in the World Bank, and prior to that a Guest professor for four years at the University of Paris XI, he capacity, the Deputy Minister has strongly advocated for the to the Natural Resources Institute in 1993. Lecturer at the London School of Economics. She has published lectured on international relations and organizations. He security of small island developing states, highlighting their on urban poverty, household vulnerability and coping strategies has served as the Executive Director of the Rural Hub since While he has carried out research and consultancy work on a vulnerability in the face of adverse climate change. Prior to her under structural adjustment; human rights, social protection, July 2004. variety of development topics, including participatory research appointment Ms. Maumoon was the Assistant Representative gender and development. methodologies, crop marketing, irrigation, and refugee situations, of the United Nations Population Fund (1998-2006) during his main work has focused on social, institutional and policy aspects which time she played a pioneering and leadership role in of livestock and pastoral development. Geographically, he has the field of women’s rights and youth empowerment in the worked in many countries throughout Africa, but in particular in Maldives. During her tenure she was able to successfully the Horn of Africa, as well as Pakistan, India, China and Mongolia. advocate and implement programs for the health and empowerment of women and adolescents in the Maldives. From 2005 he served as Lead Author on smallholder and subsistence agriculture for the Working Group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Mwaura-Muiru, Esther Nelson, Don Peters, Kyle Rai, Navin K. Founder and Coordinator of GROOTS Kenya Tyndall Research Center on Climate Change Director, Operations Policy and Country Services Lead Social Development Specialist and University of East Anglia The World Bank Group Coordinator for Indigenous Peoples The World Bank Group

Don Nelson is a Senior Research Associate in the Tyndall Esther Mwarura-Muiru is a founder and coordinator of Kyle Peters is Director of Country Services, in the Operations Navin K. Rai is the Lead Specialist and Team Leader for the Centre for Climate Change Research at the University GROOTS Kenya (Grassroots Organizations Operating Policy and Country Services (OPCS) Vice Presidency of the Inclusion and Social Safeguards Team in the Bank’s Social of East Anglia, UK. He is also an adjunct professor in Together in Sisterhood), a network of more than 2,000 World Bank. Mr. Peters provides operational support through Development Department. In this capacity, he coordinates the the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology at the self-help groups from poor communities in urban slums corporate reviews and good practice lessons to the Bank’s implementation of the Bank’s social safeguards policies as well University of Arizona, USA. and rural areas across the country. Thanks to her leadership, senior management and country programs/staff on issues as the program on Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change grassroots women in the GROOTS Kenya network have and the Pilot Initiative on Enhancing Development Benefits to During the last decade his work has been focused on related to Country Assistance Strategies, development policy built a solid network and taken leadership roles in their own Local Communities in Bank-financed Hydropower Projects. In the complex relationships between humans and the lending, and selected investment lending; catalyzes Bank communities. They have also represented themselves at addition, as the World Bank coordinator on Indigenous Peoples environment, particularly in climate stressed regions. efforts to strengthen the results focus of Bank strategies, various local, national, regional and international decision- issues, Mr. Rai oversees the formulation and implementation of Within the Tyndall Centre, his work is primarily concerned instruments, and reporting; and coordinates institutional making fora. Esther’s motivation to begin organizing and the World Bank strategy and policy on Indigenous Peoples. with promoting adaptation to climate change and is responses to global emergencies and institutional initiatives. community development work arose from her background, An American national, Mr. Peters joined the Bank in 1983 directed towards understanding the roles of the public Mr. Rai joined the Bank in 1999 as the South Asia Region growing up in complete poverty in a rural area of Kenya’s in the Office of the Vice-President for the East Asia & Pacific and private sectors and the ways in which they can work Indigenous Peoples specialist. Prior to joining the Bank, Mr. Central Province. She carried herself through school Region. Since then, he has held a number of positions in together to help reduce social vulnerabilities and increase Rai worked for twelve years as team leader for multinational tilling the farms of her rich neighbors, and earned a merit the East Asia, and Eastern and Central European regions. In resilience. He is currently involved in a national level teams in the Philippines and Nepal at the German Agency for scholarship to attend University. Esther is a regional 1999, he was appointed as Sector Manager in the European assessment in Brazil of the newly formed participatory Technical Cooperation (GTZ). Mr. Rai holds a PhD. in ecological organizer for GROOTS International and the Huairou and Central Asia Region’s Poverty Reduction and Economic watershed management committees. anthropology from the University of Hawaii (1982) and served Commission in Africa. Management Department. as a Fulbright visiting professor at the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor and Carleton College, Minnesota (1987-1988).

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Raleigh, Clionadh Toulmin, Camilla Voegele, Juergen Wang, Ren Guest Senior Researcher Director Director Director International Peace Research Institute, Oslo International Institute for Environment and Development Agriculture and Rural Development, World Bank Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

Dr. Clionadh Raleigh (MA, PhD Geography) is a researcher Camilla Toulmin is Director of the International Institute for Juergen Voegele is the Director of the Agriculture and Rural Dr. Ren Wang obtained his PhD in Entomology in 1985 at the at the University of Essex. She recently completed her Environment & Development (IIED), having formerly run the Development in the Anchor of the Sustainable Development Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Blacksburg, dissertation on the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict Drylands Programme from 1987-2002. An economist by training, Network at the World Bank. Virginia, USA. He played a leadership role in developing and governance in Central African countries. She developed her work has focused on social, economic, and environmental China’s agricultural research strategies and planning and in the Mr. Voegele initially joined the Bank in 1991 through the the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) to track development in dryland Africa. This has combined field research, international agricultural R&D with extensive experiences and Young Professionals Program. He has since held various the dynamics of conflicts over time. Her current work concerns policy analysis, capacity building and advocacy, with strategic strong capabilities in developing, organizing and coordinating positions in East Asia and the Pacific as well as Europe and the local impacts of climate change in developing countries, management of the program. It has involved engaging with people international cooperative programs. Central Asia, his most recent assignment being Sector Manager the political geography of conflict, African civil war patterns, at many different levels from farmers and researchers, to national for Rural Development in Europe and Central Asia. As the DDG-Research of IRRI, he provided leadership in developing and spatial econometrics. She has recently begun a project of governments, NGOs, donor agencies and international bodies. IRRI’s new initiatives in Sub-Sahara Africa and the Central Asia, drought-induced migration in East Africa. She has worked for As the Director of the Agriculture and Rural Development, Mr. As Director of IIED since February 2004, Camilla has focused the IRRI-CIMMYT Alliance programs, and the development the Centre for the Study of Civil War at the International Peace Voegele’s three priorities are to: 1) drive the operationalization on developing the institute’s strategy and encouraging greater of IRRI’s new strategic plan (2007-2015). He managed IRRI’s Research Institute in Oslo since 2004. of the 2008 World Development Report on Agriculture; 2) cohesion between the diverse areas of IIED’s work. She has initiated research programs and the outreach offices in 14 countries. He has advance the Climate Change agenda with a focus on mitigation a process of re-structuring which will bring together ten smaller represented IRRI in the steering committees of many regional and and adaptation in agriculture; and 3) provide strategic programs into four larger groups, working on: human settlements, global programs, consortia, and through which developed close leadership on strategy, policy, and innovation, while ensuring natural resources, climate change, and sustainable markets. She has cooperative relationship with the leaders and scientists of national that the sector family has the skills and knowledge resources to organized a major conference on land and property rights in Africa, agricultural research and extension systems (NARES) in Asia and meet the challenge. feeding into the Blair Commission for Africa’s work. She has also Africa. He has published more than 50 scientific papers, books, and been consolidating the Institute’s funding base, through stronger book chapters. relations with its principal donors. Further attention is being Dr. Wang was appointed as the Director of Consultative Group on focused on achieving a better match between IIED’s findings and International Agricultural Research in July 2007. external events and opportunities to influence policy.

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Watson, Bob Watt-Cloutier, Sheila Wheeler, Graeme White, Andy Chief Scientist, Department for Environment and Former Chair Managing Director Coordinator Rural Affairs, Government of the United Kingdom, and Inuit Circumpolar Conference World Bank Rights and Resources Initiative Former Chair of IPCC

Professor Bob Watson has been the Chief Scientific Adviser Sheila Watt-Cloutier currently resides in Iqaluit, Nunavut. Mr. Wheeler is currently Managing Director for Operations Andy is the Coordinator of the Rights and Resources Initiative for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs She was born in Kuujjuaq, Nunavik (northern Quebec ), and in the World Bank. He previously held the position of Vice and the President of the Rights and Resources Group. Prior to (Defra) since September 2007. He is responsible for the broad was raised traditionally in her early years before attending President and Treasurer of the World Bank from August joining Rights and Resources he served as Senior Director of range of science that falls under Defra’s remit. His main role school in southern Canada and in Churchill, Manitoba. She 2001. He joined the World Bank in 1997 as Director of Programs at Forest Trends and Natural Resource Management is to provide ministers with the best possible scientific advice is the past Chair of Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC), the the Financial Products and Services Department. For Specialist at the World Bank, as well as worked as a consultant and build on existing measures to ensure that science and organization that represents internationally the 155,000 Inuit the previous four years, he was the Treasurer of the New to the International Food Policy Research Center, Save the technology are used to inform policy. He also supports the of Canada, Greenland, Alaska, and Chukotka in the Far East Zealand Debt Management Office and a Deputy Secretary Children Federation and the Inter-American Foundation. UK Government’s scientific work on minimizing the effects of the Federation of Russia. Ms. Watt-Cloutier was a political to the New Zealand Treasury. Prior to this, he was Director He has worked extensively in Haiti, Mexico and China and of climate change and improving sustainability by promoting spokesperson for Inuit for over a decade. of Macroeconomic Policy and Forecasting in the New supervises policy research and engagement Asia, Latin America consistency across Defra and working together with other Zealand Treasury. During the second half of the 1980s, Mr. and Africa. His own research and project work has focused Ms. Watt-Cloutier is the recipient of many international honors Government departments. Wheeler was the Economic Counselor for the New Zealand on forest tenure and policy, as well as international trade and and awards, including the inaugural Global Environment Award Delegation to the Organization for Economic Cooperation forest industry. He has a PhD in forest economics and a MA in from the World Association of NGOs, the 2004 Aboriginal Bob Watson was previously at the World Bank where he and Development in Paris. anthropology from the University of Minnesota. was the Chief Scientist and Senior Advisor for Sustainable Achievement Award for Environment, the United Nations Development. He has also held senior positions at NASA and, Champion of the Earth Award (2005), the inaugural Northern Mr. Wheeler is the author of a book on sound practice in more recently, at the White House, where he was responsible Medal from the Governor General of Canada, the Rachel government debt management, and a recipient of the Staff for ensuring that science underpinned policy making. Carson Prize (2007), and the 2007 Mahbub ul Haq Human Association’s Good Manager Award in the World Bank. Development Award, presented by United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. She was also publicly nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 by members of the Norwegian parliament, including the former Minister of the Environment.

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List of External Participants

Last Name First Name Organization Zelenev, Sergei Chief, Social Integration Section Adamson Rebecca President, First Peoples Worldwide United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Agrawal Arun Associate Professor, University of Michigan Aguilar Lorena Senior Adviser, World Conservation Union Aguto Jose Policy Analyst, American Indian Office, US Environment Protection Dr. Sergei Zelenev is the Chief of the Social Integration Branch Agency in the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/ Bassi Andrea Senior Modeler, Millennium Institute DESA), which is responsible for providing substantive support to the UN’s intergovernmental policy dialogue of Member States Bast Elizabeth International Program Director, Friends of the Earth U.S. and for facilitating international cooperation on a range of social Bergman Michaela Senior Social Advisor, European Bank for Reconstruction and development issues. Specifically, he is responsible for overseeing Development the conceptualization, research and production of UN/DESA Bertelsen Mette Frost Independent consultant publications on inclusive policy issues, ageing, youth and family, Braeuel Christopher Senior Environmental Policy Advisor, Canadian International including reports which are submitted to the Commission for Development Agency Social Development, the Economic and Social Council and the UN Bramble Barbara National Wildlife Federation General Assembly. Since 1981, he has contributed inputs to all UN Brisson Inger Reports on the World Social Situation published by UN/DESA. Buhaug Halvard Sr. Researcher, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway Cameron Edward Embassy of the Republic of Maldives to the United States of America Main areas of personal research interest include social protection, Campbell R. Hon. Kim Former Prime Minister of Canada social inclusion, youth and ageing in various settings. He is Carisch Azalea Policy and Administrative Intern, Bank Information Center the author of a book and many articles on economic and social Carlos Alvin Manager, Finance and Operations, Bank Information Center development, published in Russian and English. Chetaille Anne Program Office, Groupe de Recherche et d’Echanges Technoloques (GRET) Educated in Russia and USA, he received his MBA from New Crate Susan Alexandra Assistant Professor of Human Ecology, Environment Science and Policy, York University (Stern School of Business) and MA and PhD in George Mason University Economics from Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO- University ).

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Last Name First Name Organization Last Name First Name Organization

Damgaard Mette Trier Independent Consultant Kuklinski Teresa Environmental Scientist, US Environmental Protection Agency Davis Shelton H. Senior Fellow, Center for Latin American Studies, Georgetown University Laurent Ruedin Social Development Advisor, Swiss Agency for Development and Dobias Robert Director, Regional and Sustainable Development Department, Asian Cooperation (SDC) Development Bank Lele Uma [email protected] Dobson Chad Executive Director of the Bank Information Center; Former Director of Little Peter Professor, Emory University Policy and Advocacy, Oxfam America Lund Lotte Dodman David Researcher, Human Settlements and Climate Change Groups, Martinez Dennis Co-chair, Indigenous People’s Restoration Network; co-chair, Takelma International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Intertribal Project; [email protected] Ferris Elizabeth Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Maumoon H.E. Dunya Deputy Foreign Minister, Republic of the Maldives Geary John Bjerg Mayaki Dr. Ibrahim Former Prime Minister, Niger; Rural Hub / West and Central Africa Griffiths Carmen Executive Director, Construction Resource & Development Centre (CRDC) Michaela Bergman Principal Environmental Specialist, European for Reconstruction and Olsson Gunilla Executive Director, Action Plan / International Fund for Agricultural Development Development (IFAD) / Office of the President, Change Management Molnar Augusta Rights and Resources Initiative Hall Anthony The London School of Economics and Political Science Morton John Social Anthropologist, Natural Resources Institute, University of Herbertson Krik World Resources Institute Greenwich Herren Hans R. President of the Millennium Institute Moser Caroline Director, Global Urban Research Centre, University of Manchester, UK Horner Kate International Climate and Energy Campaigner, Friends of the Earth US Mwaura-Muiru Esther Founder, GROOTS, Kenya; member of Huairou Commission Ibrekk Hans Olav Project Director, The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Nakhooda Smita World Resources Institute (NORAD) Nelson Don Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Jeger Ernesto Governance Adviser, Latin America Team - Brasilia Office, Department for Nguyen Manh IUCN, USA International Development Orlove Benjamin Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Jimenez Vanessa Senior Attorney, Legal and Human Rights Programme, Forest Peoples California, Davis Programme Packwood Sarah Emergencies Programme Coordinator, HelpAge International Jordan Lisa Assistant Professor, Florida State University/ International Peace Poole Peter Sympatico Research Institute, Oslo, Norway (PRIO) Poulsen John Grynderup Jorgenson Carol Alaska Tlingit and Director, American Indian Office, the US Qu Weishuang Director of Modeling and Analysis, Millennium Institute Environmental Protection Agency Rahman Atiq Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Khaleel Ahmed H.E. Ambassador of the Maldives Rai Kalyani Associate Professor, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, School of Khare Arvind Rights and Resources Initiative Continued Education Klinger Scott First Peoples Worldwide Raleigh Clionadh Researcher, University of Essex; Senior Researcher, International Peace Kronik Jakob Consultant, Social Impact of Climate Change - Indigenous Peoples and Research Institute, Oslo, Norway (PRIO) Poverty

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Last Name First Name Organization Last Name First Name Organization Redman Janet Sustainable Energy & Economy Network, Institute for Policy Studies Watters Kate Executive Director, Crude Accountability Reisch Nikki Consultant, Africa Program, Bank Information Center White Andy Coordinator, Rights and Resources Initiative Ribot Jesse Senior Associate, Institutions and Governance Program, World Resources Wiles Paul Chief Scientific Advisor and Director, Research Development and Institute Statistics, Science and Research Group, Home Office Richardson Gabriella Macroeconomics Program, World Wildlife Fund Wratten Ellen Head of Profession, Social Development, UK Government’s Department Rosegrant Mark W. Division Director, Environment and Production Technology, CGIAR for International Development (DFID) Roy Srabani Coordinator, Information Services Program, Bank Information Center Zelenev Sergei Chief, Social Integration Branch / DESA, United Nations Rubin Marc-Olivier Castaing University of Copenhagen Rumbaitis Cristina Rockefeller Foundation Sanad Ameen Middle East & North of Africa Program Intern, Bank Information Center Shah Shuaib Mohammed Maldives Shilling Jed Chairman of the Board, Millennium Institute Skinner Emmeline Equity and Rights Team, DFID Solomon Ilana ActionAid US Stites Elizabeth Instructor, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy; Senior Researcher, Feinstein International Center Stuart Elizabeth Senior Policy Adviser, Oxfam International Theisen Ole Magnus Researcher, Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway (PRIO) Toulmin Camilla Director, International Institute for Environment and Development Turk Joyce M. Senior Livestock Advisor, Economic Growth, Agriculture and Trade Office of Agriculture, USAID Verdasco Andrea Assistant, Latin America Program, Bank Information Center Vogt Erich Senior Multilateral Policy Adviser, Global Policy Unit, World Conservation Union (IUCN) USA Multilateral Office Walker Painemilla Kristen Executive Director, Indigenous and Traditional Peoples Initiative; Vice President, Conservation International Waskow David Oxfam America Watson Robert Chief Scientist, Department of Environment and Rural Affairs, UK Government Watt-Cloutier Sheila Former Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference

Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 110 List of Bank Participants List of Bank Participants 111

List of World Bank Participants Last Name First Name Position Boccucci Mario Senior Climate Change Specialist, Rural Development, Natural Resources and Environment Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region Bravo Mario Senior Communications Officer, Development and Communications Unit Bucher Ana Elisa Consultant, Environment Department Buchhave Helle Consultant, Social Development Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region Butler John R. Principal Social Development Specialist, Investment Support Group I, International Finance Corporation Chase Robert Lead Economist, Social Development Department Chassard Joelle Manager, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Department Chinsen Joyce Y. Senior Program Assistant, Social Development Department Last Name First Name Postion Clarke Mari H. Consultant, Social Development Department Constantino Luis F. Sector Manager, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East and North Agostini Paola Senior Economist, Environment & Natural Resources Management Unit, Africa Region Africa Region Correa Elena Senior Social Development Specialist, Social Development Department Ahmad Nilufar Senior Gender Specialist, Social Development Department Cudjoe Dora Nsuwa Young Professional, Environment Department Ahmed Naila Consultant, Agriculture & Rural Development Unit, South Asia Region Dahl-Jorgensen Andreas Junior Professional Associate, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Al-Hamad Laila Social Development Specialist, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East Department and North Africa Region David Vinodhini Senior Executive Assistant, Energy Transport & Water Department Anderson Edward Charles Consultant, Urban Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region Delion Jean J. Senior Operations Officer, Post Conflict & Social Development Unit, Africa Arsenova Maria V. Operations Officer, Social Responsibility, International Finance Corporation Region Bachofen Carina A. Consultant, Social Development Department De Soto Hermine Consultant, Sustainable Development Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Bae Mi Hyun Consultant, Social Development Department Region Baroudy Ellysar Senior Carbon Finance Specialist, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Diachok Myrtle Laura Operations Officer, Social Development Department Department Diez Sylvia Michele Operations Officer, Energy Transport & Water Department Beddies Sabine Senior Social Scientist, Social Development Department Divino Milagros A. Conference Assistant, Resource & Administration Team, Legal Department Behr Diji Chandrasekharan Natural Resources Economist, Agriculture & Rural Development Dowsett-Coirolo Donna (D-M) Consultant, South Caucasus Country Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region Department Drew Sarah Junior Professional Associate Bernstein Janis D. Senior Environmentalist Specialist, Sustainable Development Sector Unit, Dulal Mari Bansha Consultant, Development Economics Research Group Europe and Central Asia Region Ebinger Jane Olga Senior Energy Specialist, Energy Sector Management Assist Program, Bhatt Nina Social Development Specialist, Social Development Sector Unit, East Asia Energy Transport & Water Department and Pacific Region

Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 112 List of Bank Participants List of Bank Participants 113

Last Name First Name Position Last Name First Name Position

Fall Fatou Social Development Analyst, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East Hoffman Beth Anne Operations Analyst, Justice Reform Unit, Legal Department and North Africa Region Hoornweg Daniel Lead Urban Specialist, Finance Economics & Urban Department Foa Roberto Consultant, Social Development Department Iqbal Fareeha Yasmin Consultant, Environment Department Feister Elaine Program Assistant, Montreal Protocol/POPs, Environment Department Jorgenson Steen Sector Director, Social Development Department Feldman Tine Rossing Consultant, Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Latin America and Kato Tomoko Consultant, Social Development Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region Caribbean Region Kelleher Kieran Senior Fisheries Specialist, Agriculture & Rural Development Department Fernandes Erick C.M. Adviser, Agriculture & Rural Development Department Kende-Robb Caroline Sector Manager, Social Development Department Fisiy Cyprian F. Sector Manager, Social Development, East Asia and Pacific Region Kirsch Renate Antonie Senior Social Scientist, Social Development Department Forusz Samantha L. Senior Social Development Specialist, Social, Environment & Water Kobayashi Hayato Consultant, Environment Department Resources Unit, South Asia Region Kokotanova Elisava Stanimirova Consultant, Fragile/Conflict Affected Countries Fruman Cecile Manager, FIAS Strategy & Analysis Unit, World Bank Kraussing Jarl Senior Environmentalist Specialist, Environment Department Gacitua-Mario Estanislao Lead Social Development Specialist, Social Development Unit, Latin Labonne Julien Bernard Consultant, Social Development Department America and Caribbean Region Laohakittikul Rudeewan Resource Management Officer, Financial Management Unit Gambarelli Gretel Environmental Specialist, Environment Department Lezama Marlon Senior Financial Specialist, Energy Sector Management Assist Program, Gardiner Louise Consultant, COA Global Corp Governance Forum, International Financial Energy Transport & Water Department Corporation Lim Antonio C. Operations Officer, Sustainable Development Sector Unit, Europe and Gastelumendi Jorge Luis Consultant, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Department Central Asia Region Georgieva Sophia V. Consultant, Social Development Department Lisansky Judith M. Senior Anthropologist, Social Development Unit, Latin America and Gigler Bjorn-Soren Consultant, Energy Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region Caribbean Region Glazkov Dmytro Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Liverani Andrea Social Development Specialist, Middle Eastern and the North African Region Griebenow Gonzalo Consultant, Environment Department Lu Judy P. M. Consultant, Global Partnership & Trust Fund Policy Haeussling Seraphine Marie Consultant, Environment Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region MacLean-Abaroa Ronald Senior Operations Officer, Sustainable Development Division, World Bank Hanna Kevval Andrea Research Analyst, Social Development Department, Latin America and Institute Caribbean Region Mahieu Sylvie Consultant, Social Development Department Hassan Fowzia Operations Analyst, Energy Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region Makisaka Megumi Consultant, Social Development Department Hatziolos Marea Eleni Senior Environmentalist Specialist, Environment Department Marc Alexandre Lead Social Development Specialist, Social Development Department Helluin Jean-Jacques Operations Officer, Finance Economics & Urban Department Martinel Carmen Language Program Assistant, Social Development Department Heltberg Rasmus Senior Technical Specialist, Social Development Department McInerney-Lankford Siobhan Counsel, ESSD & International Law, Legal Department Hillers Astrid Senior Environmentalist Specialist, Environment Department Mearns Robin Lead Social Development Specialist, Social Development Department Hilmi Nahla N. Consultant, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East and North Africa Mehra Suman Region

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Last Name First Name Position Last Name First Name Position

Mendizabal-Bancourt Caroline Consultant, Social Development Department Rodrigues de Aquino Andre Consultant, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Department Morgandi Matteo Junior Professional Associate, Human Development Group, Middle East Ruckstuhl Sandra Meryl Consultant, Social Development Department and North Africa Region Sahin Sebnem Consultant, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Finance Nabaloga Christine Agnes Consultant, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East and North Africa Economics & Urban Department Region Sander Klas Natural Resources Economist, Environment Department Nielsen Sarah Trab Consultant, Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Latin America and Scott Colin S. Lead Specialist, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East and North Caribbean Region Africa Region Norton Andrew Peter Lead Social Development Specialist, Social Development Department Shah Parmesh Lead Rural Development Specialist, Agriculture & Rural Development Unit, Novozhilov Roman Social Development Specialist, Investment Support Group I, International South Asia Region Finance Corporation Shen Susan S. Lead Natural Resources Management Specialist, Rural Development, Ono Hiroshi Natural Resources and Environment, East Asia and Pacific Region Opsal Knut Senior Social Scientist, Sustainable Development Unit, Middle East and Siegel Paul Bennett Consultant, Post Conflict & Social Development Unit, Africa Region North Africa Region Sobczynska Ewa Junior Professional Associate, Strategy and Operations, Sustainable Owen Daniel P. Coordinator, Community Driven Development, Social Development Development Department Srinivasan Radhika Senior Social Scientist, Sustainable Development Sector Unit, Europe and Paccieri Isabel G. Lavadenz Program Coordinator, Strategy and Operations, Sustainable Development Central Asia Region Network Sundaram Sara Palmier Harry Senior Liaison Officer, Executive Secretariat, Sustainable Development Takeda Nazumi Consultant, Social Development Department Network Trepy Marie-Helene P. Information Assistant, Post Conflict & Social Development, Africa Region Palmreuther Sabine M. Program Officer, Sustainable Development Division, World Bank Institute Vedeld Trond Senior Social Development Specialist, Post Conflict & Social Development, Perrin Nicolas Senior Social Development Specialist, Social Development Department Africa Region Person Charles W. Senior Environmentalist Specialist, Carbon Finance Unit, Environment Verner Dorte Senior Economist, Social Development Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Department Region Petrini Benjamin Consultant, Social Development Department Wam Per Egil Senior Social Scientist, Social Development Department Pinna Andrea Westphal Michael Ian Consultant, World Development Report, Development Economics Research Post David Consultant, Social Development Department Group Rai Navin K. Adviser, Social Development Department Wilhelm Vera A. Senior Economist, Poverty Reduction Group Ranghieri Federica Environmental Specialist, Operations and Policy, East Asia and Pacific Williams Paul Richard Region Wilson Edith R. Communications Advisor, Operations & Communications Redwood John Consultant, Sector Evaluations Wilson Briana Operations Officer, Social Responsibility, International Finance Corporation Rodas Jorge E. Uquillas Consultant, Operational Quality and Knowledge Services, Africa Region Zanon Andrea Consultant, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Finance Economics & Urban Department Zarzar Alonso Senior Social Scientist, Social Development Unit, Latin America and Caribbean Region

Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop 2008 116 Resources Resources 117

IPCC Reports climate change. It also examines how climate change URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/index.htm affects the choice of instruments used to promote Resources The main activity of the IPCC is to provide in regular sustainable development. intervals Assessment Reports of the state of knowledge on The Strategic Framework on Development and climate change. The latest one is “Climate Change 2007”, Climate Change for the World Bank Group the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report. The IPCC produces URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ also Special Reports; Methodology Reports; Technical EXTCC/Resources/407863-1219339233881/ Papers; and Supporting Material, often in response DCCSFTechnicalReportExcutiveSummary.pdf to requests from the Conference of the Parties to the This Strategic Framework serves to guide and support UNFCCC, or from other environmental Conventions. the operational response of the World Bank Group weADAPT (WBG) to new development challenges posed by global URL: http://www.weadapt.org/ climate change. to hamper the achievement of many of the United Nations Useful Climate Change Websites weADAPT is a collaborative platform for climate adaptation Millennium Development Goals. This website provides the The World Development Report 2010 which draws together a wide range of partners to share most updated information about the World Bank’s activities URL: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0 The Social Dimensions of Climate Change experience, tools and case studies to create a dynamic on Climate Change. The upcoming World Development Report (WDR) at the World Bank community and knowledge base for adaptation. weADAPT 2010, “Development in a Changing Climate,” will tackle URL: http://www.worldbank.org/sdcc The World Bank Climate Change Portal provides robust guidance on adaptation decision-making, three questions: (i) What does climate change mean for The Social Development Department of the World Bank URL: http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ with tools to explore both climate uncertainty and development? (ii) What does development mean for climate is taking the lead to build a greater understanding of how This portal is intended to provide quick and readily vulnerability, and also the different methods of change? (iii) What does all this mean for policy? climate change affects people’s lives and communities accessible climate and climate-related data to development making decisions. around the world, especially in developing countries, and practitioners. It is developed and maintained by the Environment Matters 2007 of what can be done to reduce their vulnerability and Environment Department at the World Bank. World Bank’s Recent URL: http://www.worldbank.org/environmentmatters build climate resilience. This website offers comprehensive Environment Matters is the World Bank’s annual World Development Report 2010 Climate Publications on Environment and information about the social dimensions of climate change environmental review. This report emphasizes that climate Change Blog Development work program. change – and developing countries’ adaptation to it – is URL: http://climatechangeblog.worldbank.org/ a critical challenge that must be integrated into core Overview of Climate Change at the World Bank This blog is hosted by the authors of the World Bank’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in development strategies. In this issue, the World Bank’s top URL: http://go.worldbank.org/W13H8ZXSD1 upcoming World Development Report 2010, “Development Development Programs climate change and environment experts together with other While global warming and climate changes affect people in a Changing Climate”. It is a forum to get broad-based URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTEEI/ distinguished contributors give frank assessments of what and the natural environment everywhere, the World input on fundamental questions relating to climate change Resources/DCCToolkitCRAlores.pdf is currently known (and not known) on key subjects linked Bank Group believes that developing countries are more and development. This report provides practical guidance to development to adaptation, including climate variability, biodiversity, vulnerable to the effects of climate change than rich practitioners for systematically analyzing the direct social dimensions, and water security, and makes concrete countries. Climate change impacts directly on the World and indirect effects of development policy reforms on Bank’s mission of poverty reduction, and has the potential recommendations for the way forward.

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Little Green Data Book 2008 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment URL: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/ URL: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/ TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/0,,contentMDK:21764857~page en/index.aspx Social Dimensions of Climate Change PK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:244381,00.html The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment assessed the Launched on May 2008, the World Bank’s Little Green consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. Workshop Agenda (March 5-6 2008) Data Book 2008 is a pocket-sized quick reference on From 2001 to 2005, the MA involved the work of more than Sponsored by The Social Development Department of the World Bank Group, The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign key environmental and development data for over 200 1,360 experts worldwide. Their findings provide a state- Affairs and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development countries, based on the World Development Indicators of-the-art scientific appraisal of the condition and trends 2007. Country, regional, and income group profiles provide in the world’s ecosystems and the services they provide, as a baseline for comparison on the state of the environment well as the scientific basis for action to conserve and use and its linkages with the economy and people. Little Green them sustainably. Data Book 2008 dedicates its “focus section” on climate Human Development Report 2007/2008 change and its impacts. URL: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/ Wednesday March 5, 2008 Keynote Address Poverty and the Environment - Understanding hdr2007-2008/ Morning Session – Open to the Public Conflict Related Aspects of Climate Change Linkages at the Household Level The Human Development Report 2007/2008 warns that Registration & Breakfast | 8:30-9:00 am Rt.Hon. Kim Campbell Drawing upon recent analytical work prepared inside inequalities in the ability to cope with climate change Eugene R. Black Auditorium (H Building) Former Prime Minster of Canada and and outside the World Bank, this report identifies key are emerging as an increasingly powerful driver of wider Entrance on G Street between 19th and Former Secretary General of the Club of Madrid 20th Streets NW lessons concerning the linkages between poverty and inequalities between and within countries. It calls on rich Keynote Address the environment. With a focus on the contribution of countries to put climate change adaptation at the center of Opening Session The Human Dimension of Climate Change in the environmental resources to household welfare, the analysis international partnerships on poverty reduction. Maldives and Small Island States increases our understanding of how specific reforms 9:00 - 11:00 am Her Excellency Dunya Maumoon and interventions can have an impact on the health and Kristalina Georgieva, Chair Deputy Foreign Minister, Republic of the Maldives livelihoods of poor people.Other publications related to Acting Vice President, Sustainable Development environment and development can be found at: Network, World Bank Coffee break | 11:00-11:30 am http://go.worldbank.org/S8FWG1FXZ0 Keynote Address The Importance of Social Dimensions Second Session Seminal Publications on Climate of Climate Change 11:30 - 1:00 pm Change and Development Bob Watson Steen Jorgensen, Chair Director, Social Development Department Chief Scientist, Department for Environment and Rural World Bank The Stern Review Affairs Government of the United Kingdom Former Chair URL: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which The Review set out to provide a report to the Prime Minister was awarded the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize) and Chancellor by Autumn 2006 assessing the nature of the economic challenges of climate change and how they can be met, both in the UK and globally.

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Elizabeth Ferris Senior Fellow and Co-Director Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement Brookings Institution

Moderator Kyle Peters Director, Country Services World Bank Workshop I, with Q&A coffee break | 4:15-4:30 pm 2:15 - 4:15 pm Wednesday March 5, 2008 Technical Research Workshops—Open To All Bank Staff Workshop II, with Q&A By Invitation Only To External Participants 4:30 - 5:45 pm Climate Change, Urban Governance and (Kristalina Georgieva, Bob Watson, Kim Campbell, and Dunya Maumoon) Implications of Climate Change for Social Policy Conflict and Migration Presenters Presenter Presenter Keynote Address Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict Pro-Poor Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Lorena Aguilar Centre of Low- and Middle-Income Countries Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change Halvard Buhaug Senior Advisor on Gender Sheila Watt-Cloutier Senior Researcher Caroline Moser Former Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference The World Conservation Union Director International Peace Research Institute, Oslo Global Urban Research Centre Moderator Keynote Address Assessing the Impact of Climate Change School of Environment and Development, Challenges of Climate Change Mayra Buvinic on Migration and Conflict University of Manchester Sector Director, Poverty Reduction Gender Department Mitigation and Adaptation in Africa Clionadh Raleigh World Bank Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki Guest Senior Researcher Discussants Former Prime Minister of Niger Junaid Ahmad End of Session International Peace Research Institute, Oslo Current Executive Director of Rural Hub, Africa Sector Manager, South Asia Region

Discussants World Bank Don Nelson Buffet Lunch with Q&A Tyndall Research Center on Climate Change Esther Mwaura-Muiru Founder and Director, GROOTS Kenya 1:00 - 2:15 pm University of East Anglia Acknowledging the Linkages: Gender Steering Committee Member, UNDP Equator Initiative and Climate Change

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Moderator Workshop III, with Q&A coffee break | 4:15-4:30 pm Box Lunch Abha Joshi-Ghani 9:00 - 11:00 am 1:00 - 2:30 pm Sector Manager, Urban Development Implications of Climate Change for Social Aspects Of Mitigation World Bank Rural Institutions and Drylands (Panel Discussion)

Participatory Wrap-Up Session Presenter Presenters/Discussants The Role of Local Institutions in Adaptation Andy White 5:45 - 6:00 pm to Climate Change Coordinator, Rights & Resources Initiative Key Messages Emerging From Day 1 Arun Agrawal Associate Professor Joelle Chassard Moderator (Workshop Participants) School of Natural Resources and Environment Manager, Carbon Finance Unit Caroline Kende-Robb University of Michigan World Bank Sector Manager, Social Development Department Workshop IV, with Q&A World Bank Presenter Moderator 11:30 - 1:00 pm Climate Change and Agrarian Societies in Drylands Juergen Voegele Implications of Climate Change for John Morton Director, Agriculture & Rural Department Cocktail Reception Social Policy Social Anthropologist World Bank 12TH floor – MC Building 6:00 pm onward National Resources Institute Presenter Climate Change, Human Vulnerability and Social Introduction Discussants Risk Management Workshop V, with Q&A Kristalina Georgieva Ren Wang Steen Jorgensen 2:30 - 4:00 pm Acting Vice President, Sustainable Development Network Director Director, Social Development Department Indigenous People and Climate Change World Bank Consultative on International Agricultural World Bank Research (CGIAR) Presenter Speaker World Bank Discussants Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change: High Graeme Wheeler Sergei Zelenev Vulnerability and Unique Challenges Managing Director Peter D. Little Chief, Social Integration Branch Navin K.Rai World Bank Professor Department of Economic & Social Affairs Lead Specialist, Social Development Department and Anthropology and Rural Sociology United Nations Indigenous Peoples Coordinator University of Kentucky Shanta Devarajan World Bank Thursday March 6, 2008 Breakfast | 8:30-9:00 Am Chief Economist, South Asia Vice President Office Moderator Discussants I Building , Room I2-250 1850 I Street N.W. World Bank Camilla Toulmin Rebecca Adamson (Visitors Entrance on I Street) Director President Moderator International Institute for Environment and Development First Peoples Worldwide Ruth Kagia

Sector Director, Human Development Network World Bank

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Dennis Martinez Presenter Co-Chair Caroline Moser Endnotes Indigenous Peoples’ Restoration Network of the Society Director for Ecological Restoration International. Global Urban Research Centre, School of Environment and Development Moderator University of Manchester Isabel Guerrero Country Director, India Discussants World Bank Ellen Wratten Department for International Development, UK coffee break | 4:15-4:30 pm Hans Olav Ibrekk Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Closing Remarks Steen Jorgensen 1  IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. 6 Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change (SEG), Director, Social Development Department Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the 2007. Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the World Bank Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable. Rosina Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Geneva: IPCC. M. Bierbaum, John P. Holdren, Michael C. MacCracken, Richard H. Moss, and Peter H. Raven (eds.). Report 2 HM Treasury, 2006. The Economics of Climate (Kristalina Georgieva) prepared for the United Nations Commission on Change: The Stern Review. Report of the UK Treasury Sustainable Development. Research Triangle, NC, and Department. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Washington, DC: Sigma Xi and the United Nations Close Session with Q&A 3 UNDP, 2007. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity Foundation. 4:30 - 6:00 pm in a Divided World. Human Development Report 7 Foa, Roberto, 2009. ‘Social and governance dimensions 2007/2008. New York: United Nations Development Chair of climate change: implications for policy’. Background Program. Kristalina Georgieva paper for World Development Report 2010. SDV Acting Vice President, Sustainable Development Network 4 http://www.wri.org/chart/world-greenhouse-gas- Working Paper. Washington, DC: Social Development World Bank emissions-flow-chart Department, The World Bank.

Presenter 8 5 IPCC, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: ACIA, 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Report of the Wrap Up – Operational Implications Summary for Policy makers. Geneva: Intergovernmental Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). Cambridge: Caroline Kende-Robb Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press. Sector Manager, Social Development Department World Bank

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9 Orlove, Benjamin, John C.H. Chiang and Mark A. Cane, 15 McGray, Heather, Anne Hammill and Rob Bradley 2002. ‘Ethnoclimatology in the Andes’. American with E. Lisa Schipper and Jo-Ellen Parry, 2007. Scientist 90: 428-435. Weathering the Storm: Options for Framing Adaptation and Development. Washington, DC: 10 Marin, Andrei, 2008. ‘Riders under storms: World Resources Institute. contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analyzing climate change in Mongolia’. Global 16 Social accountability here refers to “the broad range of Environmental Change (submitted). actions and mechanisms beyond voting that citizens can use to hold the state to account, as well as actions 11 Araujo, A., A. Quesada-Aguilar, with L. Aguilar and L. on the part of government, civil society, media and Pearl, 2007. Gender Equality and Adaptation. Women’s other societal actors that promote or facilitate these Environment and Development Organization (WEDO) efforts” (World Bank, Social Accountability Sourcebook, and The World Conservation Union (IUCN). available at: www.worldbank.org/socialdevelopment). 12 Aguilar, L., 2004. Climate Change and Disaster It is particularly important that citizens be empowered Mitigation. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. to participate in defining appropriate forms of climate action on the part of their governments, and have 13 Neumayer, Eric, and Thomas Plümper, 2007. ‘The access to information to enable them to monitor the gendered nature of natural disasters: the impact of consequences of these actions. catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy, 17  1981-2002’. London School of Economics and Political Ribot, Jesse, 2009 (forthcoming). ‘Vulnerability does Science and University of Essex, Department of not just fall from the sky: towards multi-scale, pro-poor Government. http://ssrn.com/abstract=874965. climate policy’, in Robin Mearns & Andrew Norton (eds.), Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and 14 WBGU, 2008. Climate Change as a Security Risk. Report Vulnerability in a Warming World:. Washington, DC: The of the German Advisory Council on Global Change World Bank. (WBGU). London: Earthscan. Social Dimensions of Climate Change THE WORLD BANK

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