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The Onset of Genocide/Politicide: Considering External Variables

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The Onset of Genocide/Politicide: Considering External Variables The onset of genocide/politicide: considering external variables. A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science of the College of Arts and Sciences by Erika Alejandra García González B.A., International Relations, ITESM, Campus Monterrey, 2005 July 2015 Committee Chair: Richard J. Harknett, Ph.D. i Abstract By using case-studies as method of analysis, the dissertation analyzes the impact external variables can have at the onset of genocide and politicides. While a majority of studies focus on internal conditions when analyzing these events, the basic premise of this dissertation states that to understand why genocide and politicide occur it is important to assess the role of external variables as well as the interaction between them and the internal variables. The dissertation builds upon Harff’s (2003) statistical model of genocide/politicide, which tested internal variables as predictors of genocide or politicide events. The model, however, misclassified 26% of the cases. The cases included in the dissertation, Iraq, Indonesia and East Timor, were selected because they have at least two events with one accurately predicted and another not predicted by Harff’s model. The dissertation used a modified version of Stoett’s (2004) classification of state involvement to assess the role of external variables at the onset of these crimes: effects of colonialism at state creation, direct assistance, and indirect support. By using case-studies it was possible to observe the interaction between the external and internal variables and how those dynamics worked at the onset of genocide and politicide, allowing to observe how external variables influenced, constituted and created the events and which ones had a larger impact. It was found that external variables can affect whether regimes develop the reasons and obtain the means and opportunities to carry out the crimes. Furthermore, the case studies revealed that external variables can have both direct and indirect effects which can increase or decrease the probability of genocide/politicide. While the effects of colonization are the main root cause of conflict, these effects had mostly already been embedded in the domestic conditions before the events. Overall, direct assistance and indirect support had the most impact at the onset, providing both means and opportunities, and in some cases, even the reasons for engaging in ii genocide or politicide. In some instances, indirect assistance in the form of strategic indifference or diplomatic support proved to have a stronger effect. One important finding is direct assistance and indirect support can change in directionality, explaining why some cases progressed further into genocide/politicide or why they did not. External states had very specific reasons for providing/removing the assistance to either the government to the militant groups, or both. Thus, when interests of external powers changed, the assistance could be removed completely or given to the opposite group. These changes in directionality of support reflect broader dynamics of international security and political issues. These changes in directionality of support should be taken into account in policies for prevention of genocide and politicide. New policies should include the effect of the international environment, as well as changes in directionality of assistance, both in providing the conditions for the crimes to occur and in allowing or preventing any intervention to stop them. iii The onset of genocide/politicide: considering external variables. Copyright © 2015 by Erika Alejandra García González iv To my wonderful daughter, Alejandra. As I was working on this dissertation, my 5-year-old daughter approached me one day and said: “Mom, you should write in your book that people should treat people they way they want to be treated, because if people do that, everybody would be nice to each other”. You are so right, my love. Peace can be achieved if more people thought and acted that way. As Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Dalai Lama have said, the solution to war is love and compassion. Ale, I’m so proud of you. v Acknowledgments I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to obtain a Ph.D. at the University of Cincinnati. I have been also very fortunate to have had the greatest support to throughout this endeavor. I am very grateful to the Political Science Department, the First Year Experience Program, and to the Taft Research Center for providing me with the funding to pursue this. My deepest thanks to my Committee: Dr. Richard Harknett, Dr. Laura Jenkins, and Dr. Thomas Moore. Thank you for your support and guidance throughout my years at the UC and in the completion of this dissertation. Special thanks to Dr. Harknett, the chair of my committee, for guiding me through the research process, reading numerous drafts, and for asking challenging questions that helped clarify my thinking, and for giving encouraging and positive feedback. I cannot thank you enough. Also thanks to all my friends and colleagues at UC. I feel very fortunate to have been part of a program with so many talented people. Thanks to Pam Latham for your administrative help. Many thanks to Dr. Rafael Ranieri for being my guide all these years; thank you for your advice on all Ph.D. matters. I want to thank my friends and long distance cheerleaders, Tere Carrión, Sylvia García, Anabel González, Izda Ramos, Martha Treviño and Laura Valadez: thank you for keeping me sane. Thanks to Dr. Laura Valadez for proofreading several documents and for your feedback. Thanks to my near-distance friends, Dr. Jenn Dye and Charles Farbos de Luzan for cheering me on. Jenn, thanks for the endless supply of chocolates; it was literally the fuel that kept me going. Charles, thanks for making me laugh. vi I also want to thank the Goddard School of Fort Mitchell, KY. They say it takes a village to raise a child. Goddard, you were my village. I was able to work because I knew that my daughter was not only safe and learning, but also loved. Special thanks to Mandy Robbins, Juliana Kampinga, Tina Kern, Chris Shields, and Megan Hammond for loving my daughter so much. Thanks to my family. To my mom and dad for your love, encouragement and financial support. To my sister and brother for helping me in various projects. Thanks to my extended family for your love and support. My amazing daughter, Alejandra, brought with her more joy and love that I could imagine. Ale, I was able to work on this project because you gave me all those magical hugs and kisses and because you said you love me “one hundred, twenty, million, infinity, five million thousand, infinity”. You are awesome, I love you. A thousand thanks to my wonderful, loving and patient husband, Rodrigo Villalva. He was the driving force behind the dissertation. He encouraged me to start, continue and finish this project. He was my advisor, my therapist, my editor, my computer technician, my best friend. I have no words to express my full gratitude to you. I feel very blessed to have you by my side. Thank you for all your love. I love you always. vii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... viii List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review .............................................................................. 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Relevance of the study ................................................................................................................ 7 Structure of the dissertation......................................................................................................... 8 Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 8 The conceptualization of the crimes and the debate around them .............................................. 8 Victims: “a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such” ........................................ 10 Agents: the perpetrators of genocide ..................................................................................... 12 Means, intent and scale .......................................................................................................... 12 Crimes against humanity ....................................................................................................... 17 The onset of genocide-politicide: domestic factors................................................................... 21 The onset of genocide-politicide: external factors .................................................................... 24 The onset of genocide-politicide: when do they occur? ........................................................... 27 Chapter 2: Methodology ..............................................................................................................
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