Schools Forum

Warwickshire County Council

Schools Forum

Date: Thursday 18 March 2021 Time: 1.00 pm Venue: Online

Items on the agenda: -

1. Apologies

2. Voting and Actions from the Last Meeting 3 - 6

3. DSG Budget 2021-22 7 - 14

4. Future Meeting Dates 15 - 20

5. Admission Service Historical Charging 21 - 22

6. DSG Monitoring Report 2020-21 23 - 30

7. Education Sufficiency Annual Update 2020 31 - 70

8. Academy Update 71 - 78

9. SEND & Inclusion Change Programme 79 - 90

10. Assistant Directors Update Verbal Report 11. Chair’s Business

Monica Fogarty Chief Executive Warwickshire County Council Shire Hall, Warwick

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Item 2

WARWICKSHIRE SCHOOLS FORUM

Voting and actions of the meeting held on 14th January 2021

Microsoft Teams meeting 14:00 – 17:00

SCHOOL FORUM MEMBERS

Alison Davies The Avon Valley School (Maintained) Amy Woodward North Leamington School (Academy) Andy Dix Paddox Primary School (Maintained Governor) Angela Fox Welcombe Hills School (Special Schools representative) Craig Mckee Budbrooke Primary School (Academy) Fergus Durrant Campion School (Academy Governor) Joss Andrews Abbots Farm Junior School (Maintained) Kevin Griffiths Coten End Primary School (Maintained Governor) Larry Granelly Wellesbourne and Tysoe Federation (Maintained Governor) Martin Davies Telford Junior School (Maintained Governor) Mary Anne Burrows PVI Representative Matthew Bown St. Paul’s Church of England Primary School (Maintained) Michael Morran Rugby High School (Academy Governor) Nicci Burton (Vice Chair) Atherstone and Bedworth Heath Nursery Schools (Maintained) Nick Evans Evergreen School (Special Schools Representative) Philip Johnson (Chair) Whitestone Infant School (Maintained Governor) Rose Gunn Arden Forest Infant School (Maintained) Sarah Bromley PVI Representative Seán Taylor Representative from a Teacher’s Union Sybil Hanson Coventry Church of England Diocese Representative

OFFICERS/OBSERVERS

Andrew Felton Assistant Director - Finance Ian Budd Assistant Director - Education Services Purnima Sherwood Service Manager for Finance Neill Butler School Funding & Strategy Manager (Clerk to Forum) Bern Timings Education Capital, Sufficiency and Admissions Lead Commissioner Duane Chappell Strategy & Commissioning Manager (SEND and Inclusion) Brian Smith Finance Portfolio Lead - Technical Specialist, Education, Children & Families

1. APOLOGIES (Started 2:41, Ended 3:26)

Apologies were received from the following members:

Jane Burrows Myton School (Academy) Clive Sentence Alcester Grammar School (Academy)

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Faye Padfield Abbots Farm Infant School (Maintained Governor) Rebecca Harrison Park Hill Thorns Federation (Maintained) Councillor Colin Hayfield Portfolio Holder – Education & Learning

The following members did not attend and did not give their apologies:

Adam Hardy Catholic Church Archdiocese

MATTERS FOR DECISION:

2. Minutes of the last meeting (Started 3:23, Ended 4:55)

Agree as a true record.

Neill Butler asked schools forum to note that the matter raised under item 9, chair’s business, was raised as a courteous to schools forum rather than as a decision.

3. Early Years Funding Formula 2021-22 (Neill Butler) (Started 4:55, Ended 11:07)

Voting: All schools forum members voted in favour of the recommendation

4. National Funding Formula 2021-22 (Neill Butler) (Started 11:07, Ended 23:27)

Actions:

Recommendations were amended as follows:

1. Schools Forum agree a consensus on its advice to Cabinet regarding the continuation of moving to the ‘hard’ National Funding Formula in 2021-22. - All schools forum members voted in favour of the recommendation.

2. Schools Forum agree a consensus on its advice to cabinet to support the use of road journey miles instead of how the crow flies when allocating sparsity funding to all our small schools. - All schools forum members voted in favour of the recommendation.

3. Schools Forum agree a consensus on its advice to cabinet to support the increase in the lump sum payments for all mainstream schools in 2021-22. - All schools forum members voted in favour of the recommendations

5. SEND & Inclusion Change Programme Update (Duane Chappell) (Started 23:27, Ended 33:56)

Action: Duane to include analysis of the number of children attending early years settings in future update reports.

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6. DSG Monitoring Report 2020-21 (Purnima Sherwood) (Started 33:56, Ended 40:10)

Action: Purnima follow up the reason why there is both an overspend of £0.069 million and an underspend of £0.817 million on mainstream top ups under the High Needs Block following a question raised by Alison Davies.

Purnima responded under chair’s business to say the £0.069 million related to special school top ups and not mainstream top ups.

7. Assistant Directors Update (Ian Budd) (Started 40:10, Ended 59:58)

There were no actions from this agenda item.

8. Forward Plan (Neill Butler) (Started 59:58, Ended 1:01:22)

Action: Neill to bring back a paper to the March 2021 meeting outlining timing of future schools forum meetings and prioritising agenda items for the March meeting.

9. Chair’s Business (Started 1:01:22, Ended 1:03:43)

There was no chair’s business

If you would like to listen to the full meeting please click here

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Item 3

Schools Forum

18th March 2021

Dedicated Schools Grant Budget 2021/22

This report relates to all education sectors and is for approval by all schools forum members.

Recommendation(s)

The Schools Forum is recommended to: 1. Note the DSG budget for 2021/22 for the Schools, High Needs and Early Years blocks. 2. Approve the DSG budget for 2021/22 for the Central School Services block, as presented in Table 6.

1. Introduction

1.1. The 2021/22 ESFA allocations published in December 2020 have now been updated for High Needs recoupment. Table 1 below shows the latest allocations:

% Table 1: 2021/22 DSG 2021/22 2020/21 Change Increase Allocations £m £m £m £m Schools Block 381.551 349.680 31.871 9.1% High Needs Block 75.748 Less: recoupment (13.680) 62.068 55.152 6.916 12.5% Early Years Block 34.147 33.669 0.478 1.4% Central School Services Block 4.188 4.061 0.127 3.1% Total DSG Allocation 481.953 442.562 39.391

1.2. Schools Block DSG has been allocated as per the National Funding Formula factors used in allocating funding through the National Funding Formula.

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2. Schools Block

2.1. Schools Forum has already agreed to continue to apply the hard National Funding Formula in the allocation of Schools Block funding, and to continue to de-delegate funding for the following services:

Table 2: De-delegation 2021/22 Primary Schools Secondary Schools Free school meals Free school meals Trade Union facility time Trade union facility time English as an Additional Language English as an Additional Language Gypsy and Romany Travellers School improvement Behaviour support services Medical Referrals for Employees

2.2. Application of the National Schools Funding Formula to allocate the Schools Block budget, as approved by Schools Forum, has resulted in £1.311m of the 2021/22 Schools Block remaining unallocated.

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2.3. Based on these decisions, the allocation of the Schools Block is as follows:

Budget Budget Table 3: Schools Block Change 2021/22 2020/21 £m £m £m Individual School Budgets 378.579 344.268 34.311 Growth Fund (exceptional pupil numbers) 2.770 1.914 0.856

Schools Block Contingency (unallocated budget) 0.000 2.691 (2.691)

Education Functions - Maintained Schools DBS checks 0.175 0.182 (0.007) De-delegated budgets School Performance 0.190 0.195 (0.005) STS SEND Support (Previously "EIS") 0.030 0.031 (0.001)

Ethnic Minority & Traveller Achievement Service 0.236 0.245 (0.009)

Free School Meals 0.019 0.020 (0.001) Teaching Union Cover 0.064 0.065 (0.001) Non-Teaching Union Cover 0.016 0.016 0.000 Occupational Health 0.013 0.013 0.000 Central Establishment Charges 0.039 0.039 0.000 Agreed Movements between blocks Contribution to the High Needs Block 1.824 Total Available Schools Budget 383.955 349.679 32.452 Funded by: Total Schools Allocations 381.551 349.679 31.872 Schools Block Carry Forward 2.404

2.4. The surplus within the Schools Block has been allocated to the growth fund as approved by Schools Forum in December 2020. This has increased the allocation from £2.423 million to £2.770 million.

2.5. The 2021/22 Schools Block DSG (£381.551 million) has increased by 9.1% above the 2020/21 Schools Block DSG (£349.679 million). This is represented by a 2.0% minimum funding guarantee and the teachers’ pay and pensions funding moving from grant to within the National Funding Formula.

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3. High Needs Block

3.1. High Needs block funding in table 4 has been set based on the existing obligations in terms of top-ups, placements and staffing costs etc.

3.2. It is acknowledged however, that there are still considerable ongoing pressures in this area. The SEND and Inclusion change programme will continue to review these pressures and address the ongoing deficit on the High Needs Block.

Budget1 Budget Change Table 4: High Needs Block 2021/22 2020/21 £m £m £m SEN – Place Funding for all settings 6.454 5.921 0.533 SEN Top up - Mainstream Schools & Academies 10.941 9.329 1.612 SEN Top up - WCC Special Schools & Academies 18.266 15.447 2.819 SEN Top up - Independent Schools 12.650 16.675 (4.025) SEN Top up - OLA Special Schools 0.821 0.875 (0.054) Tier 4 Hospital Education 0.180 0.180 0.000 Resourced Provision - SEN Support 1.239 2.573 (1.334) SEND Speech & Language 0.000 0.191 (0.191) Post 16 Funding 7.903 6.774 1.129 SEND Commissions 0.258 0.067 0.191 SEND Integrated Services (CPD & Curriculum) 0.195 0.269 (0.074) SEND Integrated Services (Low incidence SEND) 1.049 1.034 0.015 SEND Integrated Services (Flexible Learning) 0.840 0.457 0.383 Area Behaviour Partnerships (Primary and Secondary 2.201 2.758 (0.557) Exclusions) Alternative Provision 0.973 0.000 0.973 Contribution to Early Intervention Behaviour Panels 0.064 0.063 0.001 SEND Integrated Services (Specialist Teaching Service) 1.163 0.784 0.379 Integrated Disability Service SEN Inclusion Grant (EY) 0.385 0.452 (0.067) Central Establishment Charges 1.428 1.428 0.000 High Needs Allocations 67.010 65.277 1.733 High Needs Block Funding 62.068 55.152 6.916 Forecast High Needs Block Funding Shortfall (4.942) (10.125) 5.183 High Needs Deficit from 2019/20 (5.789) (5.789) High Needs Deficit from 2020/21 (based on P11 forecast) (10.041) Cumulative Net Surplus / (Deficit) (20.772) (15.914)

1 The 2021/22 Budget shown within this table have been adjusted to remove the future years savings and funding that are shown on the WCC Agresso finance system. This is so that the in-year effect of the budget can be shown to reflect the true shortfall that is expected after the agreed interventions within the SEND and Inclusion change programme. 4 of 7

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3.3. There are increases and decreases to the budgets shown in the table above. These are reflective of the savings and interventions within the approved SEND and Inclusion Change Programme.

4. Early Years Block

4.1. The Early Years Block for 2020/21 was provisionally set in December 2019. However, the Early Years Block for 2020/21 is subject to change once the January 2021 census data is confirmed (which could after 31 March 2021). This is the only one of the four DSG blocks that changes retrospectively for this reason.

4.2. The Early Years Block for 2021/22 is therefore based on census data from January 2020. As 2020/21, this will be adjusted once the January 2022 census data is published. Based on the provisional DSG settlement for 2021/22, the hourly rates have increased for 2 year olds by £0.08/hr and 3 & 4 year olds by £0.06/hr, as reported at the January 2021 Schools Forum meeting.

Budget Budget Change Table 5: Early Years Block 2021/22 2020/21 £m £m £m Nursery schools (Universal Hours) 1.586 1.586 0.000 Nursery Funding 3&4 year olds (Universal funding - Independent Providers & Nursery 18.865 18.430 0.435 Classes) Nursery Funding 3&4 year Olds (Additional 15 8.226 8.226 0.000 hours) Maintained Nursery Supplement 0.627 0.627 0.000 DSG Pupil Premium 0.163 0.162 0.001 Funded 2 year olds 3.023 2.981 0.042 Disability Access Fund 0.145 0.119 0.026 Integrated Disability Service - Early Years 0.866 0.830 0.036 Early Years - Sufficiency & Business Support 0.331 0.354 (0.023) Early Years Quality & Development 0.000 0.040 (0.040) EYB Central Establishment Charges 0.314 0.314 0.000 Early Years Allocations 34.146 33.669 0.477

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5. Central School Services Block (CSSB)

5.1. Schools Forum is required to approve the budget allocations for the CSSB. The proposed allocations are set out in Table 6 below:

Budget Budget Historic or Change Central Schools Services Block 2021/22 2020/21 Ongoing £m £m £m Child Protection & Taking Care Historic 0.000 0.175 (0.175) Children’s Mental health Historic 0.150 0.150 0.000 Admissions Ongoing 0.718 0.718 0.000 Heads Termly / SACRE Ongoing 0.018 0.018 0.000 DSG SF Allocation - Historic Pension Historic 0.737 0.737 0.000 Contribution DSG SF Allocation - North Leamington School Historic 0.266 0.266 0.000 Borrowing DSG SF Allocation - Copyright Licences Ongoing 0.435 0.435 0.000 Employers Liability Insurance Ongoing 0.045 0.045 0.000 Planning for the education service, as a whole Ongoing 0.378 0.378 0.000 (Schedule 2, 15b) Formulation and review of local authority Ongoing 0.047 0.047 0.000 schools funding formula (Schedule 2, 15d) School attendance (Schedule 2, 16) Ongoing 0.377 0.377 0.000 Responsibilities regarding the employment of Ongoing 0.069 0.069 0.000 children (Schedule 2, 18) Admissions (Schedule 2, 9) Ongoing 0.086 0.086 0.000 Cost of support services for Education Ongoing 0.560 0.560 0.000 Functions Teachers Pay and Pension Ongoing 0.302 0.000 0.302 Central Schools Services Allocations 4.188 4.061 0.127

5.2. The CSSB funding has seen a decrease in the historic funding element. This is offset by funding for Teachers’ pay and pension increases (that was funded by grant in 2020/21). The net impact of this is a £0.127m increase in CSSB.

5.3. Teachers pay and pension will be allocated across the appropriate budget line during the year.

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5.4. Please note that if the Government continue with their planned approach to reduce the CSSB further in future years, this will have an impact on these budgets, which Schools Forum will later be required to make decisions on (as part of budget setting 2022/23 onwards). This is expected to be 20% reduction on the prior year’s historic factors.

Brian Smith Finance Portfolio Lead for Education, Children & Families

Author Contact Details Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 742462

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Item 4

Schools Forum

18 March 2021

Future Meeting Dates

This report relates to all education sectors and is for approval by all schools forum members.

Recommendation

The School Forum is recommended to:

1. Approve the proposed timings for future schools forum meeting dates as set out in section 3.

1.0 Introduction

1.1 The Schools Forum operational and good practice guide May 2020 states that schools forum must meet at least four times a year.

1.2 Schools forums can meet remotely, until 31 March 2021, while they are unable to meet physically in a room during the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19). It is anticipated a further update will be shared shortly but, in the meantime, all future meetings will be conducted through Microsoft Teams.

1.3 Historically meetings were held in March, June, October and December each year. With the introduction of National Funding Formula in 2018-19 and delays in the LA receiving its final DSG settlement later in December a further meeting was arranged for January.

1.4 This paper sets out the key decisions which need to be either approved by schools or consulted on for schools forum. These events will then drive the timing of the meetings each year.

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2.0 Key decisions and dates

2.1 The following sections outline the key events relating to schools funding:

2.2 Mainstream Schools National Funding Formula.

2.2.1 In August each year the ESFA produce provisional schools block DSG for each local authority. This allocates funding through Primary Units of Funding (PUF’s) and Secondary Units of Funding (SUFs). These are calculated using characteristic of individual Local Authority’s (LA) based on census data from the previous January.

2.2.2 Schools Forum are already aware of the issue this caused with Free School Meals (FSM) as the allocation for 2021-22 was based on census data from January 2020, but final census data for October 2020 saw an increase of nearly 30% in FSM over the October 2019 level.

2.2.3 The provisional schools block DSG also give allocations for premises, in our case this related to rates for schools only and for our Growth Fund.

2.2.4 The PUFs and SUFs are used to calculate total provisional pupil led funding based on the previous years October census data. This allows the LA to undertake some provisional modelling to determine indicative mainstream school budgets for the next financial year. It also allows the LA to ascertain any additional funding which could potentially be transferred to the High Needs Block.

2.2.5 Transferring funding to the High Needs Block can only take place after consultation with mainstream schools and with the agreement of schools forum. If the LA want to transfer this funding without the schools forum approval it has to put in a disapplication to the ESFA by the middle of November.

2.2.6 Last year we consulted with schools during the autumn term and convened a extraordinary meeting of schools forum in November to approve the transfer.

2.2.7 This year we are proposing to go to consultation with schools at the beginning of the autumn term and then report the consultation outcome to schools forum in September

2.2.8 Around the middle of December the LA will be notified of is final schools block DSG allocations and work is progressed on completing the funding proposals which need to be returned towards the end of January. This needs consultation with schools forum before going to elected members for approval at the January Cabinet meeting.

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2.3 Early Years National Funding Formula

2.3.1 We do not get an early indication of the Early Years DSG Block in the same way as we do with the Schools Block. We get a single settlement notification in December each year at the same time as the other DSG blocks are published.

2.3.2 Once we are aware of the Early years settlement the Early Years Working Group will meet in early January to discuss funding options for the forthcoming financial year. Again, this needs consultation with schools forum before going to elected members for approval at the January Cabinet meeting

2.4 High Needs Funding

2.4.1 Similar to the Schools Block DSG allocations we have a provisional settlement in August and the final settlement in December.

2.4.2 Final allocations for the High Needs Block will be consulted with schools form before going to elected members for approval at the January Cabinet meeting

2.5 Central Services Funding

2.5.1 The LA receives the settlement for the Central Services DSG Block in December each year.

2.5.2 It is the responsibility for schools forum to approve the budget allocations for this block each year. This has been done at the March meeting.

2.5.3 Budget monitoring reports on all DSG blocks are then brought to schools forum on a regular basis as well as final outturn report in June each year.

2.6 De-delegation

2.6.1 Each year maintained schools need to be consulted on those services which are requested to be de-delegated back to the LA next year.

2.6.2 Schools Forum then approve which services are de-delegated taking into account the views of schools.

2.6.3 This consultation has taken placed in the autumn term each year and has gone to schools forum in December. It is important that de-delegated services get an early indication of where it will continue to be de-delegated in order to plan how they will provide services to schools in the future. This will include options for a pay-as-you-go services. Therefore it is proposed that

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consultation on de-delegation will be undertake earlier and report at the schools forum September meeting for final decisions to be made.

2.7 DSG Management Plan

2.7.1 LA’s were first required to submit a Deficit Recovery Plan on 30 June 2019 if their overall DSG allocation weas more than 1% overspent for the financial year 2018-19. Warwickshire overspent its 2018-19 DSG allocation by 0.52% so was not required to produce a Deficit Recovery Plan. Guidance at that time stated that the LA needed to consult with schools forum before the Deficit Recover Plan was submitted.

2.7.2 In 2019-20 the ESFA adopted a light touch approach to these DSG Deficit Recovery Plans and changed them to DSG Management Plans. There is no requirement to consult with schools forum on the Management Plans and they do not need to be submitted to the ESFA unless requested to do so.

2.7.3 The ESFA will engage with induvial LA’s based on their perception of how the that LA is manging any DSG deficit they might have.

2.7.4 Warwickshire thinks it is still good practice to consult with schools forum on its DSG Management Plan and proposes to continue to do so.

2.7.5 Progress on our DSG Management Plan will be reported to schools forum on a regular basis in line with budget monitoring reports.

3 Proposed meeting dates and business

3.1 It is proposed that schools forum will meet for a minimum of four times a year in January, March, June and September.

3.2 Schools forum still has the opportunity to call extraordinary meetings to discuss any urgent issues which can not wait until the next scheduled schools forum meeting.

3.3 A revised forward plan is attached as Appendix 1 which sets out the proposed dates between June 2021 and March 2022, together with the regular agenda items as set out in this report.

Neill Butler School Funding and Strategy Manager

Author Contact Details Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 412240

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Appendix 1 Schools Forum – Forward Plan 2021-22

The table below contains provisional items for the Schools Forum for the next year. This table will be updated and reported to each meeting of the Forum.

Date For Decision For Information / Comment Thursday 24th June 2021  De-delegation & Disapplications Consultation  DSG 2020-21 Outturn 2pm to 5pm Timetable 2022-23  DSG Recovery Plan 2021-22 Microsoft Teams  Section 48 – Scheme for Financing Schools (subject  New Free Schools to any ESFA guidance changes)  Update on Early Years 30 hours free entitlement to sufficiency of places  Contracts Thursday 30th September 2021  2022-23 National Funding Formula (year 5)  DSG 2021-22 Forecast

Page 19 Page 2pm to 5pm Timetable and consultation  DSG Recover Plan Monitoring Venue to be confirmed  De-delegation 2022-23 Thursday 13th January 2022  2022-23 National Funding Formula  DSG 2021-22 Forecast 2pm to 5pm  2022-23 Early Years Funding Formula  DSG Recover Plan Monitoring Venue to be confirmed  2022-23 Pupil Growth Fund Thursday 17th March 2022  DSG 2022-23 Budget proposal  DSG 2021-22 Forecast 2pm to 5pm  Section 48 – Scheme for Financing Schools (subject  DSG Recover Plan Monitoring Venue to be confirmed to any ESFA guidance changes)  Contracts

Items where a date is still to be  Identification of pupils eligible for free school meals confirmed – requires a council policy change and will be bought back on a date to be confirmed.

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Item 5

Schools Forum

18 March 2021

Historical charging of Academies relating to the Admissions Service

This report relates to maintained and academy schools and is for information and comment

Recommendation

The School Forum is recommended to:

1. Note and comment on the content of the report

1. Executive Summary

1.1 In October 2018 Schools Forum endorsed the proposals that from April 2019, academies are no longer charged for admissions services to ensure equal provision for all schools, and that from April 2020 statutory admissions services remain free of charge, and all schools are charged for non‐statutory services.

1.2 In March 2019 Schools Forum endorsed the revised recommendation for the funding of school admissions to take effect from 1st April 2019 and that Warwickshire County Council admissions services be funded from the Central Services block of the DSG and available to all state schools in Warwickshire free of charge.

1.3 The Admission Service ceased trading from 1st April 2019, excluding non‐statutory services.

1.4 As result academies were eligible for a refund of charges associated with the previously traded service for the period 1st September 2018 to 31st August 2019

1.5 Following legal advice in March 2019 it was confirmed no academies are entitled to a refund for any previous financial years.

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2. Financial Implications

2.1 All Academies eligible for refunds received payment in July 2019.

2.2 As it stands no further charges have been made, or are due, in relation to the Admission Service for activities undertaken as part of administering the coordinated scheme, in year applications or school appeals process.

2.3 Maintained schools were not previously charged for the Admissions Service and therefore no refund was due.

2.4 Warwickshire County Council receives the funds for all admissions services for all state‐funded schools within Warwickshire through the DSG. This includes the following:

 The Co‐Ordinated Admissions Duty  In‐Year Admissions and other Admission Authority responsibilities  Arranging of Admission Appeals

2.5 All services relating to the 11+ testing for Warwickshire’s Grammar schools continues to be operated as a traded service

Bern Timings Education Capital, Sufficiency, and Admissions Lead Commissioner

Author Contact Details Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 742073

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Item 6

Schools Forum

18 March 2021

2020/21 Dedicated Schools Grant Financial Monitoring Report

This report relates to both maintained and academy schools and all members of the Schools Forum.

Recommendations The Schools Forum is recommended to: 1. Note the DSG forecast financial outturn position for 2020/21. 2. Note the remaining Schools Block contingency underspend and the recommendation that it is retained within the Growth Fund for now.

1. Introduction

1.1. This report provides an update on the 2020/21 forecast outturn position of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG).

1.2. The total 2020/21 DSG allocation for Warwickshire, reported to Schools Forum in March 2020, was £442.156m:

1.3. Since then the DSG allocation has been updated to reflect the Academy/High Needs recoupment, Early years adjustments and special school growth and imports/exports adjustments. Table 2 and Appendix A show the latest allocations to reflect these changes.

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Original Latest Table 2: 2020/21 Revised DSG Change Reason for Change Allocation Allocation Allocations £m £m £m Schools Block 349.680 (208.555) 141.125 Academy recoupment Special school growth and Total High Needs 68.073 0.414 68.487 import/exports adjustments Less: recoupment (12.770) (0.565) (13.335) High Needs recoupment High Needs Block 55.303 (0.151) 55.152 Adjustment for EY Census Early Years Block 33.112 0.557 33.669 data Central School Services Block 4.061 4.061 Total DSG Allocation 442.156 -208.149 234.007

2. 2020/21 Forecasts 2.1. Table 3 summarises the 2020/21 forecast position by Block, as at 7th March 2021, and Appendix A provides a detailed breakdown:

Latest Forecast @ Variance Table 3: 2020/21 Forecasts Allocation 7th March £m £m £m Schools Block 141.125 138.606 (2.519) High Needs Block 55.152 65.193 10.041 Early Years Block 33.669 33.059 (0.610) Central School Services Block 4.061 3.944 (0.117) Total DSG Allocation 234.007 240.802 6.795

2.2. It should be noted that the ESFA has indicated that any local authorities overspending their DSG by more than 1% in 2020/21 is expected to have a recovery plan that they may request a copy of. At present, Warwickshire is forecasting an overspend of 1.49%1. 2.3. Although the Total DSG position of the four blocks is used to calculate whether the DSG overspend is above the 1% threshold, in reality, we are not able to move funding between blocks without secretary of state approval (disapplication process); so the key financial risk to be highlighted in Table 3 is the £10.041m overspend in the High Needs Block.

3. Explanations for Variances The sections below explain the main reasons for the variances across the blocks. A detailed breakdown of variances is shown in Appendix A.

1 Calculation of overspend is based on DSG allocation of £455.897m, i.e. the allocation prior to recoupments.

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Schools Block (£2.519 million underspend) 3.1. There is an underspend of £2.519 million on the Schools block which comprises:  Schools Block Contingency of £2.344 million (after the sparsity allocation has been made)  Underspends on School Improvement of £0.040m, Teaching union cover of £0.030m, Occupational Health of £0.013m, DBS checks of £0.063m and EIS Behaviour Panels of £0.030m.

High Needs Block (£10.041 million overspend) 3.2. High Needs is forecasting an overspend of £10.041 million. This overspend excludes the £5.240 million deficit from 2019/20 that, as per DFE guidance, has been carried forward to 2020/21 and is held on the council’s balance sheet as a DSG debt. 3.3. The overspend is made up as follows:  £0.989 million on Special school top ups, this has significantly increased due to the matrix data being refreshed/updated for new unit costings and updated needs per child  £7.921 million on top ups in Independent Schools  £0.046 million on flexible learning, this has significantly reduced due to income being received being much higher than anticipated.  £0.111 million on Post 16 funding, this has significantly reduced due to the removal of excess import/Export OLA Young people that were being double counted as these were also in our base data.  £0.104 million for Alternative provision  £2.281 million shortfall in budget for which work is progressing to identify new saving/interventions to bridge the gap identified through the DSG recovery plan.  Of the overspends on the High Needs Block detailed above, £7.843 million has savings/interventions identified in future years as part of the DSG recovery plan. Offsetting some of these overspends are underspends in the following areas:  £0.274 million for Mainstream top ups  £0.037 million on top ups in OLA schools  £0.675 million on resourced provision, this has drastically reduced from the previous forecast due to the clarity on costs not being fully incurred and assumed delays in payments.  £0.151 million for SEND Integrated services (Low incidence and Specialist teaching services)

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 £0.266 million for Integrated Disability 3.4. Proposals for closing the overspend are being developed as part of the DSG recovery plan and the SEND change programme.

Early Years Block (£0.610 million underspend) 3.5. Overall, Early Years is forecasting to underspend by £0.610 million.  Universal funding for 3 & 4 year olds is forecasting an underspend of £0.020 million  Additional 15 hours for 3 & 4 year olds is forecasting an underspend of £0.732 million  Funding for 2 year olds is forecasting an overspend of £0.207 million  IDS TL Early Years if forecasting an overspend of £0.021 million  Early Years - Sufficiency & Business Support is forecasting an underspend of £0.085 million which is due to staffing vacancies that were due to be filled from September.

3.6. Schools Forum are asked to note that the Early Years forecast variance will change to reflect the updated allocation following the January 2021 census data.

Central Schools Services Block- CSSB (£0.117 million underspend) 3.7. There is a small forecast underspend of £0.119 million, due to forecast underspends in Child Protection.

Brian Smith Finance Portfolio Lead for Education, Children & Families

Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 742462

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Appendix A

Latest Latest Forecast Forecast @ Budget Variance Schools Block 7th March £m £m £m Mainstream Individual School Budgets 135.539 135.539 0.000

Rates Adjustments 0.000 0.000 0.000 Rates Benefit from Academy 0.000 0.000 0.000 Conversions Loss on Delegation from Conversions 0.000 0.000 0.000 Growth Fund (exceptional pupil 2.149 2.149 0.000 numbers) Schools Block Contingency 2.631 0.288 (2.344) De-delegated budgets School Performance 0.195 0.155 (0.040) Early Intervention Service 0.031 0.002 (0.030) Ethnic Minority & Traveller Achievement 0.245 0.245 0.001 Service Free School Meals 0.020 0.020 0.000 Teaching Union Cover 0.065 0.036 (0.030) Non-Teaching Union Cover 0.016 0.016 0.000

HR – Occupational Health (Primary Only) 0.013 0.000 (0.013)

Central Establishment Charges 0.039 0.039 0.000 Education Functions - DBS 0.182 0.118 (0.063) Total Schools Allocations 141.125 138.606 (2.519)

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Latest Latest Forecast Forecast @ Budget Variance High Needs Block 7th March £m £m £m SEN – Place Funding for Maintained Mainstream, Special and Resourced 5.920 5.920 0.000 Provision SEN Top up – Mainstream Schools & 10.351 10.077 (0.274) Academies SEN Top up – WCC Special Schools & 15.876 16.865 0.989 Academies SEN Top up – Independent & OLA 9.079 16.963 7.884 Special Schools Tier 4 Hospital Education 0.180 0.180 0.000 Resourced Provision – SEN Support 2.510 1.836 (0.675) SEND Speech & Language 0.191 0.191 0.000 Post 16 Funding 6.531 6.642 0.111 SEND Commissions 0.067 0.067 0.000 SEND Integrated Services (Low incidence 1.303 1.173 (0.129) SEND) SEND Integrated Services (Flexible 0.332 0.378 0.046 Learning) Area Behaviour Partnerships (Primary 2.366 2.469 0.104 and Secondary Exclusions) Contribution to Early Intervention 0.063 0.055 (0.008) Behaviour Panels SEND Integrated Services (Specialist 0.784 0.634 (0.151) Teaching Service) Integrated Disability Service SEN 0.452 0.315 (0.137) Inclusion Grant (EY) Special Nurseries (Universal Hours) 0.000 0.000 0.000 High Needs Contingency/ (Shortfall) (2.281) 0.000 2.281 Central Establishment Charges 1.428 1.428 0.000 High Needs Allocations 55.152 65.193 10.041

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Latest Latest Forecast Forecast @ Budget Variance Early Years Block 7th March £m £m £m Nursery schools (Universal Hours) 1.586 1.586 0.000 Special nurseries (Universal Hours) 0.000 0.000 0.000 Nursery Funding 3&4 year olds (Universal funding - Independent 18.430 18.410 (0.020) Providers & Nursery Classes) Nursery Funding 3&4 year Olds 8.226 7.494 (0.732) (Additional 15 hours) Maintained Nursery Supplement 0.627 0.627 0.000 DSG Pupil Premium 0.162 0.160 (0.001) Funded 2 year olds 2.981 3.188 0.207 Disability Access Fund 0.119 0.119 0.000 IDS TL Early Years 0.830 0.851 0.021 Early Years - Sufficiency & Business 0.271 0.186 (0.085) Support Early Years Quality & Development 0.040 0.040 0.000 Early Years Contingency/ (Shortfall) 0.083 0.083 0.000 EYB Central Establishment Charges 0.314 0.314 0.000 Early Years Allocations 33.669 33.059 (0.610)

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Latest Latest Forecast Forecast @ Budget Variance Central Schools Services Block 7th March £m £m £m Taking Care 0.000 0.000 0.000 Child Protection 0.175 0.056 (0.119) Children’s Mental health 0.150 0.150 0.000 Admissions 0.718 0.718 0.000 Heads Termly / SACRE 0.018 0.018 0.000 DSG SF Allocation - Historic Pension 0.737 0.737 0.000 Contribution DSG SF Allocation - North Leamington 0.266 0.266 0.000 School Prudential Borrowing DSG SF Allocation - Copyright Licences 0.435 0.435 0.000 Employers Liability Insurance 0.045 0.046 0.001 CSSB Central Establishment Charges 0.727 0.727 0.000 Education functions for all schools: Planning for the education service as a 0.262 0.262 0.000 whole (Sch 2, 15b) Formulation and review of local authority schools funding formula (Sch 0.033 0.033 0.000 2, 15d) School attendance (Sch 2, 16) 0.261 0.261 0.000 Responsibilities regarding the 0.048 0.048 0.000 employment of children (Sch 2, 18) Admissions (Sch 2, 9) 0.060 0.060 0.000 Contribution to Services funded 0.127 0.127 0.000 corporately by WCC Central Schools Services Allocations 4.061 3.944 (0.117) 2019/20 DSG Total 234.008 240.802 6.794

* Note that there may be rounding differences between the figures presented in this Appendix compared to the Tables in the body of the report.

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Item 7

Schools Forum

18 March 2021

Education Sufficiency Annual Update 2020

This report relates to maintained and academy schools and is for information and comment

Recommendation

The School Forum is recommended to:

1. Note and comment on the content of the report

1. Executive Summary

1.1 The update attached as Appendix A, outlines pupil number forecasts from September 2020 covering a 5 year period for primary phase and a 7 year period for secondary phase and provides an overview of the forthcoming pressures expected during that period.

1.2 Details of how any expected pressures will be met, including current planned or proposed capital schemes, are outlined in each section. All proposals are subject to change in response to relevant changes in housing developments in the area and the impact on expected need for places.

1.3 Demand for school places is expected to continue to increase across many parts of the county, predominantly in line with housing growth. It is expected the significant pressures will be at secondary age level as larger primary cohorts move through to secondary school. Increased demand at primary level will continue where there is expected housing growth.

1.4 Pupil forecast data indicates significant pressure on Secondary school places will arise in Atherstone, Nuneaton, Rugby, Leamington and Warwick, Shipston and Stratford upon Avon.

1.5 In addition, it is expected there will be pressure for in year places as primary cohorts’ progress through the academic year in the Baddesley Grendon, North and East Nuneaton, South Leamington, Bidford, and Kineton Primary planning areas. This is likely to be localised affecting the most popular schools while capacity remains

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available at alternative primary schools in neighbouring planning areas in the local area.

1.6 Where an increase in pupil numbers is expected parental preference dictates not all schools will see a uniform increase in demand. The strategy aims to retain a minimum of 4% capacity in each year group across any given planning area to ensure places remain available to accommodate additional pupils as new families that move into an area. Work will be required to assist and encourage all schools to be proactive in their approach to attracting pupils in order to prevent large disparities between schools that are at capacity and those that are significantly under capacity. This will be undertaken as a proactive approach alongside the ongoing work to assist schools with deficit budgets.

1.7 Pressure on SEND places will initially be addressed by supporting and equipping mainstream schools to ensure a greater proportion of learners with EHC plans at school age are supported in their local mainstream setting, developing the second phase of ‘resourced provision’, establishing a new special school on the Pears site and completing existing expansion projects. Improving the commissioning of high needs places, to ensure sufficiency of local specialist provision, sits within the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme

1.8 Pupil forecast data factors in the expected impact of housing developments across the county, the timescales for delivery of which are reliant on the data produced by the local planning authorities. The expected demand for in year places particularly may not be fully realised where this data deviates from the reality of the delivery of new housing.

2. Financial Implications

2.1 The full extent of the financial implications are yet to be quantified and detailed costing will be provided once design and feasibility work has been undertaken for each individual project outlined in this update.

2.2 Initial cost estimates relating to additional provision, particularly new schools, have been produced utilising national benchmark. Work is ongoing to identify the expected capital requirements and funding profile for all future Education Capital projects over the short to medium term.

2.3 All proposed education capital projects are considered against independently published third-party data to benchmark the cost to the County Council of providing school places and ensuring effective allocation of resources.

2.4 There is the likelihood that the consideration of any Carbon Neutral build methods will increase overall costs beyond the existing benchmarks.

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2.5 Basic Need grant funding is provided by the DfE to deliver the expected requirement for mainstream places across the 4-16 age range. This grant is calculated on a per pupil basis for mainstream places and excludes those places as a result of housing growth which are expected to be funded via developer contributions.

2.6 Developer contributions will continue to be sought to provide the new provision needed as a result of housing growth and funds secured relevant to each individual scheme will be utilised where appropriate to deliver the schemes proposed. 2.7 The initial revenue costs for the new schools and additional classes at existing schools will need to be met utilising Dedicated Schools Grant, Pupil Growth Funding.

3. Environmental Implications

3.1 Following the County Council’s declaration of a Climate Change Emergency the design brief for all Education Capital projects will require the consideration of Carbon Neutral build methods to ensure the environmental impacts of delivering and operating the new provision are reduced where possible.

3.2 Environmental risk assessments together with mitigation statements to reduce any potential environmental impacts are required for each capital project. Where a risk of environmental damage is identified measures will be required to ensure these risks remain at a minimum throughout the construction process.

4. Supporting Information

4.1 Section 3 in the Annual Update outlines the key sufficiency challenges which provide the context to the practical implementation of sufficiency proposals.

4.2 Housing growth across the county is expected to increase the long-term demand for school places as new families move into the county. This is by far the biggest challenge in ensuring sufficiency of school places and the expected impact of this housing growth is included in the pupil forecast data presented. However as new families move into Warwickshire over the next academic year the level of short term demand for places will vary depending on the age of the children and availability of places in the relevant year groups at local schools. Where possible the available capacity in areas with housing growth should exceed the 4% target to account for these variances

4.3 There can often be pressure for school places when families apply late or part way through the academic year and schools are already at capacity. The allocation of school places is administered in line with the School Admission Code published by the Department for Education (DfE) and all processes must be undertaken in line with this legislation. In order to overcome this issue the target is to maintain 4% capacity in any given year group across each planning area, however there is no

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provision within the code that would allow schools or Local Authorities to hold places at any school to accommodate those late or in year applicants.

5. Timescales and next steps

5.1 Proposed schemes outlined in the sufficiency update will be worked up though the initial feasibility stages via the Education Capital Access and Organisation Working Group.

5.2 Following confirmation of the availability of funding, the appropriate consultations, and feasibility studies all projects are require agreement by the Education Capital Access and Organisation Board.

5.3 Once agreed by the Board all individual capital projects outlined will be subject to future reports to Cabinet for funding approval.

5.4 The Education Sufficiency Annual Update 2021 will be drafted between April and June and published in the Autumn 2021.

Bern Timings Education Capital, Sufficiency, and Admissions Lead Commissioner

Author Contact Details Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 742073

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Warwickshire County Council

Education Services

Annual Education Sufficiency Update

September 2020

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Contents 1. Introduction ...... 3 2. Covid-19 Pandemic Impacts ...... 4 3. Key sufficiency challenges ...... 4 4. North Warwickshire...... 5 4.1. Primary ...... 5 4.2. Secondary ...... 6 5. Nuneaton and Bedworth ...... 8 5.1. Primary ...... 8 5.2. Secondary ...... 10 6. East Warwickshire ...... 12 6.1. Primary ...... 12 6.2. Secondary ...... 14 7. Central Warwickshire ...... 15 7.1. Primary ...... 15 7.2. Secondary ...... 17 8. South Warwickshire ...... 19 8.1. Primary ...... 19 8.2. Secondary ...... 22 9. Special Educational Needs (SEN) Provision ...... 24 9.1. Special School Growth ...... 24 10. Appendix 1 – Primary Planning Areas...... 28 11. Appendix 2 – Secondary Planning Areas ...... 34 12. Appendix 3 – Pupil yield figures ...... 36

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1. Introduction

1.1. This annual sufficiency update is published to provide the current context for the delivery of the Warwickshire County Council (WCC) Education Sufficiency Strategy 2018 - 2023.

1.2. This update outlines pupil number forecasts from September 2020 covering a 5 year period for primary phase and a 7 year period for secondary phase, and provides an overview of the forthcoming pressures expected during that period.

1.3. All pupil forecasts include all currently approved housing developments as at time of publication. WCC Education Services work collaboratively with the five District and Borough planning authorities and the progress of proposed and approved housing development across the county is continually monitored. The underlying data relating to housing trajectories is subject to change.

1.4. Details of how any expected pressures will be met, including current planned capital schemes, are outlined in each section. These may change in response to relevant changes in housing developments in the area and the impact on expected need for places. All individual projects are subject to the availability of funding and the appropriate consultations, feasibilities, and approvals.

1.5. Full analysis of Early Years sufficiency across the county is outlined in the Early Years and Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 2020 link.

1.6. The most up to date pupil yield figures used when assessing likely additional pupils generated by new housing development are included within this update as Appendix 3.

1.7. Details of WCC’s approach to meeting need arising from housing development and requests for financial contributions from developers is available in WCC Developers' Guide to Education Contributions 2019 link.

1.8. From publication in September 2020 this sufficiency update will cover the academic year 2020/2021 and will be followed by an update on an annual basis.

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2. Covid-19 Pandemic Impacts

2.1. At the time of publication in September 2020 the economic outfall from the Covid-19 pandemic and the potential impact that this might have on school place requirements is not yet known. Changes in demand will be kept under review and subsequent years pupil forecast data will be adjusted to factor in and shifts in demand for school places or disruptions to housing developments across the county if required.

2.2. Financial impacts related to Covid-19 cost increases and related time frame extensions required on future education capital projects will be assessed at the feasibility stage for the individual proposed schemes.

2.3. Delivery of capital schemes is ongoing during the pandemic with WCC major construction projects following relevant government guidance and contractors carry-out site-specific risk assessments for site operating procedures including social distancing and cleaning hygiene. Schools will also need to consider any construction works as part of their health and safety risk assessments

3. Key sufficiency challenges

3.1. Housing development - Housing growth across the county is expected to increase the long-term demand for school places as new families move into the county. This is by far the biggest challenge in ensuring sufficiency of school places and the expected impact of this housing growth is included in the pupil forecast data presented in this document. However as new families move into Warwickshire over the next academic year the level of short term demand for places will vary depending on the age of the children and availability of places in the relevant year groups at local schools. Where possible the available capacity in areas with housing growth should exceed the 4% target to account for these variances.

3.2. In year applications - There can often be pressure for school places when families apply late or part way through the academic year and schools are already at capacity. The allocation of school places is administered in line with the School Admission Code published by the Department for Education (DfE) and all processes must be undertaken in line with this legislation. In order to overcome this issue the target is to maintain 4% capacity in any given year group across each planning area, however there is no provision within the code that would allow schools or Local Authorities to hold places at any school to accommodate those late or in year applicants.

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3.3. Admission arrangements - All school places offered are done so in line with the relevant admission arrangements for that school. For academies the responsibility for setting the schools admission policy, including oversubscription criteria, lies with the academy trust. Warwickshire County Council works in partnership with all of the Warwickshire family of schools, however it is not always the case that the admission arrangements set by an academy trust will give full consideration to the Local Authorities strategic approach to ensuring sufficiency of school places.

4. North Warwickshire

4.1. Primary

4.1.1. Pupil forecasts

Reception Available Total Available Reception Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 65 53 18% 455 360 21% 2021/22 65 45 31% 455 361 21% Arley 2022/23 65 54 17% 455 365 20% 2023/24 65 43 35% 455 348 23% 2024/25 65 47 27% 455 349 23% 2020/21 150 123 18% 1050 934 11% 2021/22 150 136 9% 1050 973 7% Atherstone 2022/23 150 144 4% 1050 988 6% 2023/24 150 113 25% 1050 979 7% 2024/25 150 132 12% 1050 970 8% 2020/21 30 35 -17% 210 214 -2% 2021/22 30 38 -28% 210 219 -4% Baddesley 2022/23 30 31 -4% 210 216 -3% Grendon 2023/24 30 32 -6% 210 224 -7% 2024/25 30 35 -15% 210 218 -4% 2020/21 212 207 2% 1484 1358 8% 2021/22 212 185 13% 1484 1369 8% Coleshill 2022/23 212 199 6% 1484 1394 6% 2023/24 212 183 14% 1484 1375 7% 2024/25 212 189 11% 1484 1357 9% 2020/21 105 88 16% 735 621 15% 2021/22 105 92 12% 735 640 13% Kingsbury 2022/23 105 72 32% 735 631 14% 2023/24 105 69 35% 735 603 18% 2024/25 105 78 26% 735 602 18%

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Reception Available Total Available Reception Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 157 135 14% 1099 1105 -1% 2021/22 157 143 9% 1099 1108 -1% Polesworth 2022/23 157 161 -3% 1099 1124 -2% 2023/24 157 145 7% 1099 1119 -2% 2024/25 157 147 6% 1099 1110 -1% 2020/21 32 25 23% 224 182 19% 2021/22 32 29 9% 224 192 14% North 2022/23 32 26 18% 224 196 12% Polesworth 2023/24 32 20 36% 224 186 17% 2024/25 32 26 19% 224 192 14%

4.1.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

4.1.3. Current pupil forecasts for North Warwickshire show the majority of planning areas are predicted to have available capacity in excess of the 4% target.

4.1.4. Polesworth primary planning area is currently forecast a possible overall in- year pressure due to the popularity of the schools with children from outside of the area. This will be monitored closely although available capacity is expected in the neighbouring North Polesworth planning area.

4.1.5. Baddesley Grendon planning area is expected to have pressure for reception entry moving forward. The level of need is not expected to sustain a viable expansion of the only school in this planning area, Woodside C of E Primary School, as sufficient capacity exists at schools in the neighbouring Atherstone primary planning area to accommodate the expected increase in need.

4.2. Secondary

4.2.1. Pupil forecasts

Year 7 Available Total Available Year 7 Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 120 134 -12% 600 699 -17% 2021/22 120 150 -25% 600 735 -22% 2022/23 120 179 -50% 600 786 -31% Atherstone 2023/24 120 172 -44% 600 822 -37% 2024/25 120 190 -59% 600 862 -44% 2025/26 120 176 -47% 600 900 -50% 2026/27 120 163 -35% 600 910 -52% Page 6 of 36

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Year 7 Available Total Available Year 7 Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 210 209 1% 1050 1070 -2% 2021/22 210 209 1% 1050 1058 -1% 2022/23 210 210 0% 1050 1056 -1% Coleshill 2023/24 210 209 0% 1050 1050 0% 2024/25 210 209 1% 1050 1048 0% 2025/26 210 208 1% 1050 1045 0% 2026/27 210 208 1% 1050 1042 1% 2020/21 126 127 -1% 630 701 -11% 2021/22 126 127 -1% 630 678 -8% 2022/23 126 127 -1% 630 668 -6% Kingsbury 2023/24 126 127 0% 630 649 -3% 2024/25 126 127 0% 630 616 2% 2025/26 126 127 0% 630 614 2% 2026/27 126 127 0% 630 614 3% 2020/21 240 245 -2% 1200 1255 -5% 2021/22 240 247 -3% 1200 1260 -5% 2022/23 240 248 -3% 1200 1283 -7% Polesworth 2023/24 240 244 -2% 1200 1280 -7% 2024/25 240 243 -1% 1200 1264 -5% 2025/26 240 240 0% 1200 1236 -3% 2026/27 240 240 0% 1200 1213 -1%

4.2.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

4.2.3. Current forecasts for North Warwickshire show that in contrast to the primary, the majority of secondary planning areas are predicted to be over capacity. It is expected that there will be in-year pressure in the Atherstone area due to slightly higher primary cohorts and the build out of approved housing development in the area.

4.2.4. To accommodate demand in the Atherstone planning area the Queen Elizabeth Academy have proposed a new classroom block and will admit an additional 30 pupils for Year 7 entry in September 2021. The academy trust are undertaking delivery of this project which will enable the school to expand by a form of entry. A further form of entry will also potentially be needed over the next 5 to 7 years and will need further consideration alongside plans for additional capacity in neighbouring planning areas and the timing of housing development in the local area.

4.2.5. The Coleshill planning area is expected to be at or slightly over capacity for both Year 7 and across other year groups. The school increased its PAN to 210 from September 2017, increasing capacity by an additional 150 places across the school

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over the following 5 years. This increase will enable the school to accommodate demand from both in and out of county children. An additional classroom block has been delivered for the 2020/21 academic year to allow the school to accommodate the increased pupil numbers as they roll out across all year groups.

4.2.6. Kingsbury planning area is expected to be at capacity moving forward. This is a result of the schools popularity with families resident outside of Warwickshire and Kingsbury School have admitted above the published admission number to accommodate demand.

4.2.7. The Polesworth planning area is currently expected to be slightly over capacity owing to the ongoing popularity of the school with pupils from outside of Warwickshire for Year 7 entry. Given this fact, there may be pressure for in-year applications if pupils move into the area and the school is at capacity. and places allocated at the next nearest school with available space likely requiring the provision of home to school transport.

4.2.8. A review of the accommodation at The Polesworth School will be undertaken to inform future expansion proposals, ensuring the school is able to meet the expected need from approved and future housing development in the area. This follows the construction of a replacement classroom block under the Priority School Building Programme project currently being undertaken by the Department for Education (DfE) at the school.

5. Nuneaton and Bedworth

5.1. Primary

5.1.1. Pupil forecasts

Reception Available Total Available Reception Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 240 205 15% 1680 1421 15% 2021/22 240 187 22% 1680 1408 16% Bedworth 2022/23 240 205 15% 1680 1406 16% South West 2023/24 240 202 16% 1680 1410 16% 2024/25 240 201 16% 1680 1392 17% 2020/21 90 86 4% 630 558 11% 2021/22 90 92 -2% 630 553 12% Wolvey and 2022/23 90 93 -3% 630 565 10% Bulkington 2023/24 90 75 17% 630 550 13% 2024/25 90 87 3% 630 551 13%

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Reception Available Total Available Reception Planning Academic Forecast Capacity Total Forecast Capacity Capacity - Area Year Pupil (4% Capacity Number (4% PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 270 261 3% 1906 1849 3% 2021/22 270 227 16% 1906 1812 5% Bedworth 2022/23 270 224 17% 1906 1766 7% North East 2023/24 270 255 5% 1906 1769 7% 2024/25 270 235 13% 1906 1741 9% 2020/21 259 247 5% 1837 1742 5% 2021/22 259 219 15% 1837 1748 5% Nuneaton 2022/23 259 265 -2% 1837 1771 4% North West 2023/24 259 248 4% 1837 1773 3% 2024/25 259 251 3% 1837 1768 4% 2020/21 450 404 10% 3270 2875 12% 2021/22 450 407 10% 3270 2857 13% Nuneaton 2022/23 450 391 13% 3270 2789 15% West 2023/24 450 372 17% 3270 2765 15% 2024/25 450 391 13% 3270 2748 16% 2020/21 490 526 -7% 3430 3465 -1%

Nuneaton 2021/22 520 500 4% 3640 3546 3% North and 2022/23 520 519 0% 3640 3626 0% East 2023/24 520 516 1% 3640 3682 -1% 2024/25 520 535 -3% 3640 3739 -3%

5.1.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

5.1.3. Bedworth South West and Bedworth North East primary planning areas are currently expected to have sufficient capacity to meet need in the area. This includes increased capacity at Newdigate Primary School from 1.5fe to 2fe from September 2018, creating an additional 105 places across the school over the next 7 years.

5.1.4. There is likely to be some overall pressure from the 2020 academic year onwards in the Nuneaton North East planning area. This is primarily as a result of new families moving into the area in line with housing development. The schools in this area are popular and often oversubscribed from reception entry. Where necessary, in- year applications would be accommodated in neighbouring Nuneaton schools where sufficient places exist to meet this need.

5.1.5. Lower Farm Academy opened in September 2019 with 30 places in Reception to meet the forecast need in the North of Nuneaton; this additional Reception capacity is included in the data above. The school is being delivered as part of the Central Government Free School programme and will grow to 60 places per year group to help meet the longer term need for places in line with housing development in this area of Nuneaton. The school is currently in temporary accommodation while the permanent Page 9 of 36

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build is completed and will offer a total of 420 additional primary school places once fully opened. Work will be undertaken with the academy trust to open additional places across other year groups should there be the need following the delivery of the permanent school buildings.

5.1.6. In order to build some capacity into the Nuneaton North and East planning area of for the 2019/20 academic year an additional class was opened in Year 2 (current Year 3 2020/21) at Weddington Primary School, providing an additional 30 places in that year group.

5.2. Secondary

5.2.1. Pupil forecasts

Year 7 Year 7 Available Total Available Total Planning Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Places Area Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 210 198 6% 1050 1011 4% 2021/22 210 197 6% 1050 1030 2% 2022/23 210 221 -5% 1050 1055 0% Hartshill 2023/24 210 218 -4% 1050 1080 -3% 2024/25 210 219 -4% 1050 1082 -3% 2025/26 210 210 0% 1050 1075 -2% 2026/27 210 213 -1% 1050 1076 -2% 2020/21 470 411 13% 2350 2023 14% 2021/22 470 476 -1% 2350 2119 10% 2022/23 470 478 -2% 2350 2231 5% Bedworth 2023/24 470 459 2% 2350 2279 3% 2024/25 470 471 0% 2350 2275 3% 2025/26 470 457 3% 2350 2304 2% 2026/27 470 445 5% 2350 2260 4% 2020/21 956 958 0% 4780 4519 5% 2021/22 956 1015 -6% 4780 4737 1% 2022/23 956 1069 -12% 4780 4947 -3% Nuneaton 2023/24 956 1014 -6% 4780 5018 -5% 2024/25 956 1040 -9% 4780 5093 -7% 2025/26 956 1020 -7% 4780 5136 -7% 2026/27 956 1027 -7% 4780 5130 -7%

5.2.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

5.2.3. The Hartshill planning area is expected to see a decrease in the available capacity at Year 7 in the next few years with a shortfall for Year 7 intake expected by September 2022. This will be monitored and bulge classes may be required to accommodate the shortfall. The academy trust is undertaking a review of the schools existing accommodation, and working in partnership with the LA, proposals for redevelopment are being considered.

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5.2.4. The Bedworth planning area is currently predicted to have available capacity in both Year 7 entry and overall in the next 5 years. However, there is expected to be a slight pressure for Year 7 entry in September 2021 and September 2022. This situation will need careful monitoring particularly if any of the current strategic housing allocations are approved which could require additional capacity at Ash Green School.

5.2.5. Ash Green School has admitted over PAN for the last 3 years to accommodate localised demand from within the school’s priority area. Further work will be undertaken with the Academy Trust to review of the accommodation on site to meet expected need from approved and future development in the Bedworth area.

5.2.6. The Nuneaton planning area is currently forecast to have an overall shortfall of places available from 2021. The expected shortfall in neighbouring Hartshill may compound this issue with any available in-year capacity at Nuneaton schools being utilised by children from the Hartshill planning area. In-year applications will be monitored closely and will require close working with the existing secondary schools to ensure all children moving into the area can be accommodated.

5.2.7. Across Nuneaton we will work with schools to ensure space in existing buildings is being utilised to accommodate any in-year pressure or for Year 7 entry should there be a need for additional classes as the academic year progresses.

5.2.8. Etone College admitted an additional 30 pupils for Year 7 entry in September 2020 to accommodate demand in the Nuneaton planning area. It is expected this increase will be required permanently, providing an additional 150 places in the area over the next 4 years. Proposals to provide additional accommodation from 2022 to support a sustained increase in pupil numbers are currently being progressed with the academy trust.

5.2.9. At the time of publication in September 2020 the outcome of the Central Government Free School Wave 14 is still unknown. Warwickshire County Council provided supporting information and evidence of need to the DfE and a number of multi academy trusts have submitted bids to operate a new secondary school in the North of Nuneaton. It is expected this new provision will meet the longer term demand for places in Nuneaton and delivery of this new school is not dependant on the DfE but will be undertaken by the Council if no trust is successful in their free school bid with the DfE.

5.2.10. Assessment of the potential to expand Higham Lane School will be undertaken to inform expansion to accommodate demand from the initial phases of housing growth in the North of Nuneaton. Timing of any potential expansion of this school is dependent on the outcome of the above Free School Wave and associated expected delivery of the new school should any bid be successful.

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6. East Warwickshire

6.1. Primary

6.1.1. Pupil forecasts

Reception Reception Available Total Available Total Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Planning Area Places Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 405 368 9% 2859 2905 -2% 2021/22 405 360 11% 2859 2948 -3% Rugby North 2022/23 405 400 1% 2859 2997 -5% Central 2023/24 405 355 12% 2859 3016 -6% 2024/25 405 395 3% 2859 3054 -7% 2020/21 240 230 4% 1560 1580 -1% 2021/22 240 202 16% 1560 1638 -5% Rugby North of the 2022/23 240 225 6% 1560 1636 -5% Railway 2023/24 240 205 15% 1560 1599 -3% 2024/25 240 215 10% 1560 1573 -1% 2020/21 45 47 -4% 315 303 4% 2021/22 45 38 15% 315 296 6% The Revel 2022/23 45 45 1% 315 293 7% 2023/24 45 44 3% 315 288 8% 2024/25 45 42 6% 315 292 7% 2020/21 78 66 16% 498 472 5% 2021/22 78 64 17% 498 467 6% Dunchurch 2022/23 78 60 24% 498 458 8% 2023/24 78 46 41% 498 437 12% 2024/25 78 57 27% 498 429 14% 2020/21 137 110 19% 959 857 11% 2021/22 137 113 18% 959 832 13% Rugby Rural 2022/23 137 119 13% 959 811 15% 2023/24 137 111 19% 959 784 18% 2024/25 137 115 16% 959 769 20% 2020/21 210 179 15% 1470 1409 4% 2021/22 210 165 21% 1470 1388 6% Rugby South 2022/23 210 179 15% 1470 1381 6% Central 2023/24 210 161 23% 1470 1344 9% 2024/25 210 175 17% 1470 1355 8% 2020/21 240 228 5% 1660 1691 -2% 2021/22 240 211 12% 1660 1707 -3% Rugby West 2022/23 240 227 5% 1660 1690 -2% 2023/24 240 179 25% 1660 1604 3% 2024/25 240 199 17% 1660 1548 7%

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6.1.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

6.1.3. The increased housing development and migration into Rugby town over recent years has seen the need for expansions and bulge classes at primary schools across the town. The result is forecast capacity above the 4% target across the majority of planning areas, particularly for Reception entry moving forwards. There may be pressure for in-year applications towards the north of the town but sufficient capacity is expected at other schools across Rugby to accommodate those families moving into the area.

6.1.4. Significant housing development in Rugby North of the Railway is expected to lead to an increase in demand for primary school places longer term to meet this need a new 1fe primary school is planned as part of the Rugby Gateway development. In addition, there is an historical mismatch in capacity at infant and junior level in this area. Work is ongoing in partnership with the infant and junior schools in this area to undertake a strategic review of current and future provision in this area to ensure the short and long term need for places is met.

6.1.5. St Gabriel’s C of E Academy opened from September 2018 on the housing development at Houlton in the east of Rugby to accommodate demand for primary school places from the new housing. The new school has opened as a 1fe (210 places) primary school offering places in all year groups. Longer term the site provides the option to expand to 3fe (630 places) as the housing development at Houlton progresses. Localised pressure may be experienced for in year applications as the housing continues to build out and new families move to the development, however it is expected sufficient capacity will be available at other local primary schools to accommodate this in year movement.

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6.2. Secondary

6.2.1. Pupil forecasts

Year 7 Year 7 Available Total Available Total Planning Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Places Area Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 1042 1163 -12% 5210 5302 -2% 2021/22 1072 1169 -9% 5360 5468 -2% 2022/23 1072 1254 -17% 5360 5721 -7% Rugby 2023/24 1072 1221 -14% 5360 5853 -9% South 2024/25 1072 1193 -11% 5360 5970 -11% 2025/26 1072 1281 -20% 5360 6071 -13% 2026/27 1072 1256 -17% 5360 6149 -15% 2020/21 220 243 -11% 1100 1288 -17% 2021/22 220 254 -16% 1100 1366 -24% 2022/23 220 287 -30% 1100 1419 -29% Rugby 2023/24 220 289 -31% 1100 1461 -33% North 2024/25 220 286 -30% 1100 1490 -35% 2025/26 220 300 -36% 1100 1537 -40% 2026/27 220 298 -35% 1100 1580 -44%

6.2.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

6.2.3. Current forecasts include all approved housing developments and show secondary schools in Rugby are expected to be over capacity for Year 7 entry from September 2020. This includes the additional capacity provided by Rugby Free Secondary School which opened from September 2016 towards the south of the town providing an additional 6fe per year group.

6.2.4. Rugby Free Secondary School, Bilton School and Ashlawn School admitted an additional 30 pupils each for Year 7 entry in September 2020, in addition to an additional 55 places admitted at Harris C of E Academy for Year 7 entry in September 2020, as temporary bulge classes to accommodate demand in the Rugby area.

6.2.5. In order to meet the expected shortfall in Secondary places across Rugby the proposed secondary school on the Houlton development will be opened from September 2021. The new school will open as 6fe (900 places plus 6th form) initially to meet the demand expected across Rugby as well as that from the Houlton development, with further expansion expected longer term beyond the current forecast period in line with growing need. This school will be delivered in partnership between the developers of Houlton and ESFA and will be operated by the Transforming Lives Educational Trust. This new school is not included in the capacity data shown above at this time but will provide an additional 180 places for year 7 entry in 2021.

6.2.6. Lawrence Sherriff School admitted an additional 30 places from September 2020 and have officially increased the admission number to 150 from September 2021 Page 14 of 36

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following a successful bid to secure funding from the DfE to expand Grammar provision. This will increase capacity by an additional 150 places across the school over the next 5 years. Given the selective nature of Grammar schools it is likely not all of these places will be offered to children from the Rugby area in any given year, however the school have altered the admission arrangements for 2021 onwards to further support the offer of places to children in Rugby and the local area.

6.2.7. Following the opening of the new secondary school on Houlton there is still a slight pressure expected on secondary school places across Rugby. The preference to meet this shortfall is for the expansion of existing secondary schools in the area. However, if the capacity required to meet this need is not available on existing school sites, WCC will review options with the developer of Coton Park East in the north of Rugby for a new secondary school to be located on that development. This will only be implemented when the options for expansion at existing schools have been exhausted.

7. Central Warwickshire

7.1. Primary

7.1.1. Pupil forecasts

Reception Reception Available Total Available Total Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Planning Area Places Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 275 259 6% 2009 1961 2% 2021/22 275 232 16% 1979 1935 2% Kenilworth 2022/23 275 259 6% 1949 1946 0% 2023/24 275 210 24% 1949 1896 3% 2024/25 275 234 15% 1949 1866 4% 2020/21 360 307 15% 2520 2338 7% 2021/22 360 334 7% 2520 2329 8% North 2022/23 360 355 1% 2520 2366 6% Leamington 2023/24 360 346 4% 2520 2370 6% 2024/25 360 350 3% 2520 2390 5% 2020/21 478 457 4% 3346 3376 -1% 2021/22 478 495 -4% 3346 3642 -9% South 2022/23 478 546 -14% 3346 3868 -16% Leamington 2023/24 478 558 -17% 3346 4017 -20% 2024/25 478 550 -15% 3346 4096 -22%

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7.1.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

7.1.3. The Leamington area is facing significant pressure over the coming years due to housing development. It is expected that South Leamington primary planning area will be over capacity for Reception entry from September 2021 onwards with possible in-year pressure from 2020. However, this need for additional school places is disproportionate across the town with significant short falls expected across the South Leamington planning area and sufficient capacity expected to continue across schools in the North Leamington primary planning area.

7.1.4. Design and development is underway on a new All-Through School to the South of Leamington/ Warwick, with a currently proposed opening date of September 2023, offering an additional 30 reception places in the first year. This school will grow to provide 2fe additional primary provision, or 420 additional places, in the South Leamington primary planning area.

7.1.5. Heathcote Primary School opened from September 2017 as 1fe (210 places) and has proved popular with residents in the surrounding area. The school admitted and an additional 30 Reception places in September 2019 and has permanently Page 16 of 36

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expanded the Reception intake to 60 places from 2020. Work is currently underway to deliver the additional accommodation needed to support this permanent expansion to 2fe (420 places).

7.1.6. Whitnash Primary School has admitted additional children to offer 60 places for reception entry and work is underway to deliver the accommodation needed once the school reaches capacity for 2fe from September 2022. This has increased capacity by an additional 105 places across the school over 7 years and ensures the school is supported and grows alongside the proposed new schools in the Warwick and South Leamington primary planning areas.

7.1.7. Radford Semele primary planning area is currently forecast to have a pressure on places from the 2020 academic year onwards, this is primarily as a result of housing development and in-year applications would be accommodated in neighbouring Leamington schools.

7.2. Secondary

7.2.1. Pupil forecasts

Year 7 Year 7 Available Total Available Total Planning Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Places Area Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 1051 1032 2% 5255 4942 6% 2021/22 1051 1127 -7% 5255 5230 0% Warwick 2022/23 1081 1169 -8% 5405 5501 -2% and 2023/24 1081 1248 -15% 5405 5808 -7% Leamington 2024/25 1081 1219 -13% 5405 5981 -11% 2025/26 1081 1187 -10% 5405 6051 -12% 2026/27 1081 1255 -16% 5405 6118 -13% 2020/21 270 283 -5% 1350 1411 -5% 2021/22 270 293 -8% 1350 1440 -7% 2022/23 270 286 -6% 1350 1462 -8% Kenilworth 2023/24 270 291 -8% 1350 1467 -9% 2024/25 270 286 -6% 1350 1452 -8% 2025/26 270 296 -10% 1350 1460 -8% 2026/27 270 283 -5% 1350 1439 -7% 2020/21 270 281 -4% 1350 1428 -6% 2021/22 270 275 -2% 1350 1434 -6% 2022/23 270 274 -1% 1350 1423 -5% Southam 2023/24 270 275 -2% 1350 1417 -5% 2024/25 270 277 -2% 1350 1401 -4% 2025/26 270 286 -6% 1350 1411 -5% 2026/27 270 278 -3% 1350 1416 -5%

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7.2.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

7.2.3. Current forecasts show secondary schools in the Warwick and Leamington planning area are expected to be over capacity from September 2021. As larger primary cohorts continue to transfer through to secondary school and housing development within the area progresses this shortfall is expected to increase rapidly and will likely support a new secondary school as early as September 2023.

7.2.4. From September 2019, Campion School is increasing capacity from just over 5fe to 7fe, with the published admission number (PAN) increasing from 155 to 210 with each incoming Year 7 cohort, meaning the overall capacity of the school will gradually rise from 775 to 1,050 pupils. Work is currently ongoing with the school to ensure this increased intake is phased from September 2019 to address expected shortfalls in the Warwick and Leamington secondary planning area.

7.2.5. Myton School as an academy are reviewing options for future site redevelopment that would enable the school to offer additional 6th form provision and in turn provide capacity for additional places per 11-16 year group to help ensure there are sufficient places across the Warwick and Leamington secondary planning area to meet future demand. Work will be undertaken to support the Academy’s proposals ensuring they align with the wider need for additional education provision across Leamington and Warwick.

7.2.6. A new All-Through school is planned for South Leamington, proposed to open in September 2023. This will provide an additional 6fe (900 places plus 6th form), to meet the expected shortfall in places across the Warwick and Leamington secondary planning area. Design and development is currently underway with the new school expected to offer an additional 180 secondary places for each year 7 intake from 2023.

7.2.7. The Kenilworth planning area is currently expected to be over capacity owing to increasing primary cohorts and the popularity of the school with pupils from outside the area. Given this fact there may be pressure for in-year applications if pupils move into the area. In addition, proposed housing development will increase this pressure further.

7.2.8. Kenilworth School is currently expected to relocate to a new site within the town from September 2022. As part of the relocation project additional capacity will be provided to accommodate the expected growth in secondary pupil numbers as a result of approved and proposed housing development in Kenilworth town.

7.2.9. In addition to the relocation and expansion of Kenilworth School there are proposals for a new 6fe secondary school as part of the proposed development to the north of Kenilworth on the Coventry border, known as King’s Hill. The impact of this development is likely to be towards the end of the current forecast period. Initial Secondary age children generated as result of this development may need to be

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accommodated via temporary arrangements which would require collaboration with existing local secondary schools.

7.2.10. The Southam planning area is expected to experience some in year pressure as a result of the housing development in the local area. This will be monitored closely and in turn may also place additional pressure on the neighbouring planning area of Warwick and Leamington.

7.2.11. Working with the academy trust a review of accommodation and site capacity at Southam College has being undertaken to inform any future requirements for expansion of the school to accommodate demand from proposed additional housing in the Southam area.

8. South Warwickshire

8.1. Primary

8.1.1. Pupil forecasts

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Reception Reception Available Total Available Total Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Planning Area Places Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 30 29 3% 210 210 0% 2021/22 30 25 18% 210 208 1% Claverdon 2022/23 30 28 8% 210 211 0% 2023/24 30 19 38% 210 198 6% 2024/25 30 24 21% 210 192 8% 2020/21 118 117 0% 826 792 4% 2021/22 118 114 3% 826 819 1% Kineton 2022/23 118 125 -6% 826 847 -2% 2023/24 118 129 -10% 826 890 -8% 2024/25 118 139 -18% 826 938 -14% 2020/21 45 46 -1% 315 225 28% 2021/22 45 33 27% 315 230 27% The Dassett 2022/23 45 36 21% 315 230 27% 2023/24 45 35 22% 315 226 28% 2024/25 45 37 18% 315 231 27% 2020/21 30 32 -5% 210 219 -4% 2021/22 30 37 -24% 210 229 -9% Ettington 2022/23 30 32 -7% 210 230 -9% 2023/24 30 21 31% 210 220 -5% 2024/25 30 31 -3% 210 220 -5% 2020/21 30 19 36% 210 131 38% 2021/22 30 22 27% 210 133 37% Tysoe 2022/23 30 21 32% 210 140 33% 2023/24 30 12 58% 210 131 38% 2024/25 30 18 39% 210 132 37% 2020/21 15 17 -14% 105 120 -15% 2021/22 15 18 -23% 105 119 -14% Ilmington 2022/23 15 17 -13% 105 121 -15% 2023/24 15 15 -2% 105 119 -13% 2024/25 15 16 -10% 105 118 -12% 2020/21 30 25 17% 210 219 -5% 2021/22 30 27 9% 210 213 -2% Welford 2022/23 30 31 -2% 210 213 -2% 2023/24 30 24 19% 210 204 3% 2024/25 30 28 7% 210 199 5% 2020/21 75 65 14% 525 528 -1% 2021/22 75 63 17% 525 537 -2% Shipston 2022/23 75 67 10% 525 521 1% 2023/24 75 45 40% 525 486 7% 2024/25 75 55 27% 525 455 13%

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Reception Reception Available Total Available Total Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Planning Area Places Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 345 322 7% 2415 2178 10% 2021/22 345 291 16% 2415 2225 8% Stratford 2022/23 345 279 19% 2415 2225 8% Town 2023/24 345 291 16% 2415 2262 6% 2024/25 345 309 10% 2415 2320 4% 2020/21 97 98 -1% 679 604 11% 2021/22 97 94 3% 679 616 9% Stratford 2022/23 97 87 10% 679 616 9% Rural 2023/24 97 73 25% 679 597 12% 2024/25 97 85 13% 679 588 13% 2020/21 107 85 20% 749 671 10% 2021/22 107 94 12% 749 671 10% Studley 2022/23 107 80 25% 749 642 14% 2023/24 107 82 23% 749 622 17% 2024/25 107 86 20% 749 617 18% 2020/21 25 23 7% 175 157 11% 2021/22 25 26 -6% 175 163 7% Compton 2022/23 25 23 8% 175 164 6% and Brailes 2023/24 25 22 11% 175 167 5% 2024/25 25 23 7% 175 164 6% 2020/21 60 55 8% 420 374 11% 2021/22 60 58 4% 420 380 9% Warwick 2022/23 60 54 10% 420 373 11% Rural 2023/24 60 53 11% 420 365 13% 2024/25 60 53 11% 420 370 12% 2020/21 60 59 1% 420 305 27% 2021/22 60 55 9% 420 346 18% Quinton 2022/23 60 70 -16% 420 404 4% 2023/24 60 66 -10% 420 450 -7% 2024/25 60 74 -24% 420 500 -19%

8.1.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

8.1.3. The majority of primary planning areas across South Warwickshire are expected to have sufficient capacity to accommodate the need in the area. However, several areas may have very slight pressures for both Reception entry and overall capacity; these areas will be closely monitored as the academic year progresses.

8.1.4. Bidford Planning Area is forecast to experience to be slightly over capacity for September 2023 and experience some in year pressure as a result of housing in the

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local area. Birth cohorts will continue to be monitored to ensure any requirement for permanent additional capacity in the area is sustainable.

8.1.5. In Kineton primary planning area there is currently forecast to be a slight in- year pressure on Reception and overall capacity from September 2021, increasing towards the end of the current forecast period. This is due to the reported build out of housing development at Gaydon Lighthorne Heath. This will be monitored and options reviewed to provide additional accommodation at the existing Lighthorne Heath Primary School, prior to the relocation and expansion of the school beyond the current forecast period as part of the development.

8.1.6. Ettington primary planning area is expected to have short term pressure on Reception places for September 2020 and longer term pressure on in-year places overall. This will be monitored closely as the academic year progresses.

8.1.7. Ilmington primary planning area is forecast to have pressure for Reception entry and overall capacity. This situation will be monitored closely due to the rural nature of the planning area.

8.1.8. Quinton primary planning area is currently forecast to have a shortfall from September 2022 due to housing development at Long Marston Airfield and Meon Vale.

8.1.9. Tudor Grange Primary Academy, Meon Vale opened in September 2019 to provide an initial 30 places in Reception in the Quinton primary planning area. ESFA are currently progressing construction of the new school. The school opened as 1fe for Reception only, intended to grow organically by one year group each academic year. Once the permanent school building is complete discussions will be held with the Academy Trust to explore the opportunity of opening additional classes if required to meet demand in the area. It is also expected this new school will meet the need for primary places from the initial phases of the neighbouring development at Long Marston Airfield, prior to additional new primary provision opening beyond the current forecast period.

8.2. Secondary

8.2.1. Pupil forecasts

Year 7 Year 7 Available Total Available Total Planning Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Places Area Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 570 577 -1% 2850 2873 -1% 2021/22 570 580 -2% 2850 2916 -2% 2022/23 570 606 -6% 2850 2991 -5% Alcester 2023/24 570 614 -8% 2850 3036 -7% and Studley 2024/25 570 619 -9% 2850 3022 -6% 2025/26 570 636 -12% 2850 3072 -8% 2026/27 570 621 -9% 2850 3105 -9% Page 22 of 36

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Year 7 Year 7 Available Total Available Total Planning Academic Places Forecast Capacity Forecast Capacity Places Area Year Available Pupil (4% Number (4% Available - PAN Numbers target) On Roll target) 2020/21 140 139 1% 700 669 4% 2021/22 140 140 0% 700 704 -1% 2022/23 140 139 1% 700 716 -2% Henley 2023/24 140 139 1% 700 716 -2% 2024/25 140 139 1% 700 704 -1% 2025/26 140 139 1% 700 705 -1% 2026/27 140 137 2% 700 702 0% 2020/21 180 170 5% 900 824 8% 2021/22 180 170 6% 900 833 7% 2022/23 180 182 -1% 900 868 4% Kineton 2023/24 180 185 -3% 900 913 -1% 2024/25 180 186 -3% 900 922 -2% 2025/26 180 187 -4% 900 951 -6% 2026/27 180 187 -4% 900 977 -9% 2020/21 120 149 -25% 600 668 -11% 2021/22 120 146 -22% 600 720 -20% 2022/23 120 155 -29% 600 763 -27% Shipston 2023/24 120 141 -17% 600 770 -28% 2024/25 120 161 -34% 600 793 -32% 2025/26 120 140 -17% 600 778 -30% 2026/27 120 150 -25% 600 774 -29% 2020/21 497 511 -3% 2485 2404 3% 2021/22 497 494 1% 2485 2455 1% 2022/23 497 532 -7% 2485 2547 -3% Stratford 2023/24 497 543 -9% 2485 2630 -6% 2024/25 497 544 -9% 2485 2677 -8% 2025/26 497 548 -10% 2485 2729 -10% 2026/27 497 570 -15% 2485 2816 -13%

8.2.2. Commentary and Sufficiency Proposals

8.2.3. Pupil forecasts for Alcester and Studley planning area currently suggests pressure across the area however this is likely to be centred on Alcester town rather than Studley. Pressure from in-year applications will need to be monitored closely owing to the selective nature of Grammar schools in this area and the popularity of schools in this area with out of county children at Year 7 entry.

8.2.4. Kineton High School has increased the PAN from September 2018 onwards offering an additional 150 places across the school over the next 5 years. It is likely there will be a shortfall as a result of housing development across the area towards the end of the forecast period. This may initially be presented as increasing in-year pressure as the academic year progresses and ultimately this will likely require expansion of Kineton High School beyond the forecast period to meet this demand.

8.2.5. The Shipston planning area is currently forecast to be over capacity moving forward as a result of housing development within the planning area. This situation will

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be monitored closely and again may initially be presented as increasing in-year pressure as the academic year progresses.

8.2.6. Bulge classes may be required to accommodate potential additional children ahead of a permanent expansion of Shipston High School, before a new secondary school is opened (beyond the current forecast period) as part of proposed large-scale Garden Village development at Long Marston. Work will be undertaken with Shipston High School to identify the additional accommodation needed for future.

8.2.7. Stratford planning area is expected to have pressure on places moving forward, this is due in part to the popularity of the Grammar schools with children from outside of the Stratford area.

8.2.8. Stratford upon Avon School admitted an additional 25 pupils for Year 7 entry in September 2019 and September 2020 to accommodate demand in the Stratford area. This is in advance of permanent expansion of the school by at least 1fe. Proposals to provide additional accommodation from 2022 to support a sustained increase in pupil numbers are currently being progressed with the academy trust.

9. Special Educational Needs (SEN) Provision

9.1. Special School Growth

9.1.1. In 2017, special schools in Warwickshire supported 1,271 learners with SEND. The needs assessment at that time forecast, based on population growth, increasing prevalence and growing demand for specialist provision that by 2022/23 an additional 259 spaces (additional 20%) would be required taking the total requirement to 1,530. As a result, a number of expansion projects in local special schools have taken place in the period 2017-2020.

9.1.2. In January 2020, special schools in Warwickshire supported 1,558 learners with SEND. Nationally, there has been significant growth in demand for specialist provision as an alternative to mainstream provision at school age recognised in national reports by the Public Accounts Committee and National Audit Office. The table below shows the proportion of learners in different types of settings between 2017 and 2020.

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Proportion of learners in different types of settings between 2017 and 2020 ISP= Independent Specialist Provision, AP = Alternative Provision, FE= Further Education

9.1.3. The Warwickshire SEND & Inclusion Change Programme (implementing the SEND & Inclusion Strategy) commits Warwickshire to:

• Supporting and equipping mainstream schools to ensure a greater proportion of learners with EHC plans at school age are supported in their local mainstream setting

• Developing the second phase of ‘resourced provision’ or specialist partnerships – as a bridge between mainstream and specialist placements, focussing on social, emotional and mental health needs (SEMH)

• Establishing a new special school on the Pears site to accommodate needs that cannot currently be met through the local offer of specialist provision (and therefore result in placements in more expensive independent alternative provision)

• Completing existing expansion projects within the local offer of provision.

9.1.4. Admissions to local specialist provision are approved through the Warwickshire SEND Provision Panel.

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9.2. Sufficiency Proposals

9.2.1. The table below sets out existing projects for ensuring sufficiency of specialist placements and proposals under development. Education Expanding or establishing Developing resourced provision Area Served specialist provision or specialist partnerships Under development: In progress: Proposal to transfer the Installation of SEND base at The Packington Lane site to Coleshill School for up to 10 Woodlands School (part of pupils to facilitate partnership Unity Academy Trust) to arrangement with Woodlands facilitate reconfiguration of School existing provision and some expansion of capacity. Under development: Development of specialist nurture provision at Woodlands School to North provide short term intervention for Warwickshire learners experiencing mental health difficulties impacting on their ability to access learning in the school environment.

Under development: Phase 2 resourced provision in North/Nuneaton & Bedworth as part of the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme In progress: Increased Under development: classroom space for additional Phase 2 resourced provision in learners in last two years at Oak North/Nuneaton & Bedworth as Wood Primary and Oak Wood part of the SEND & Inclusion Secondary. Further capacity to Change Programme be completed Autumn 2020 Nuneaton & Bedworth In progress: New 80-place specialist school for children with ASD/SEMH who are exhibiting behaviours that challenge at the Pears site. Opening September 2021

No current projects for further In progress: expansion of specialist provision Implementation of resourced in East Warwickshire (NB. Quest provision at Paddox Primary Academy opened in new School (during academic year East premises in Rugby in September 2020/21) Warwickshire 2019) Under development: Phase 2 resourced provision in East as part of the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme

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Education Expanding or establishing Developing resourced provision Area Served specialist provision or specialist partnerships Completed: Amalgamation of Under development: Round Oak School and Phase 2 resourced provision in Ridgeway School received Central/South as part of the SEND Cabinet approval May 2020 for & Inclusion Change Programme implementation September 2020. Central Therefore, from September 2020 Warwickshire Ridgeway School will extend their age range to 19, provide additional special school places and re-name the school The Evergreen School. No current projects for further In progress: expansion of specialist provision Implementation of resourced in South Warwickshire provision at Welford on Avon Primary School (during academic South year 2020/21) Warwickshire Under development: Phase 2 resourced provision in Central/South as part of the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme No current projects for further expansion of countywide Countywide specialist provision (NB. Provision Expansion works at Exhall Grange School completed in 2019)

9.3. As part of the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme, officers will continue to explore opportunities for capital investment, based on a clear business case, to support the education of learners with SEND, particularly in the South of the County.

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10. Appendix 1 – Primary Planning Areas

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Primary Planning Schools Area Arley Primary School Arley Bournebrook C of E Primary School Outwoods Primary School Atherstone Racemeadow Primary Academy St Benedict's Catholic Primary School Baddesley Grendon Woodside C of E Primary School Coleshill C of E Primary School Curdworth Primary School High Meadow Community School Coleshill St Edward's Catholic Primary School Shustoke C of E Primary School Water Orton Primary School Austrey C of E Primary School North Polesworth Newton Regis C of E Primary School Birchwood Primary School Dordon Primary School Polesworth The Nethersole C of E Academy Warton Nethersole's C of E Primary School Hurley Primary School Kingsbury Kingsbury Primary School Wood End Primary School All Saints Bedworth C of E Primary School The Canons C of E Primary School Race Leys Infant School Bedworth North East Race Leys Junior School St Francis' Catholic Primary School St Michael's C of E Primary School Exhall Cedars Infant School Goodyers End Primary School Keresley Newland Primary Academy Bedworth South West Newdigate Primary School St Giles Junior School Wheelwright Lane Primary School Arden Forest Infant School Wolvey and Bulkington St James' C of E Junior School Wolvey C of E Primary School Camp Hill Primary School Galley Common Infant School Michael Drayton Junior School Nuneaton North West Nathaniel Newton Infant School Nursery Hill Primary School St Anne's Catholic Primary School Page 29 of 36

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Primary Planning Schools Area Park Lane Primary School Abbey C of E Infant School Chilvers Coton Infant School Croft Junior School Nuneaton West Glendale Infant School Middlemarch Junior School Queen's C of E Academy St Paul's C of E Primary School Stockingford Primary School All Saint's C of E Primary School Chetwynd Junior School Lower Farm Academy Milby Primary School Our Lady and St Joseph Catholic Academy Nuneaton North East St Joseph's Catholic Junior School St Nicolas C of E Academy Weddington Primary School Wembrook Primary School Whitestone Infant School Boughton Leigh Infant School Boughton Leigh Junior School Rugby North of the Brownsover Community Infant School Railway Riverside Academy Rugby Free Primary School Abbot's Farm Infant School Abbot's Farm Junior School Eastlands Primary School English Martyrs Catholic Primary School Hillmorton Primary School Rugby North Central Northlands Primary School Paddox Primary School St Andrew's Benn C of E Primary School St Gabriel’s C of E Academy Clifton-upon-Dunsmore C of E Primary School Oakfield Primary School Rokeby Primary School Rugby South Central St Marie's Catholic Primary School St Matthew's Bloxam C of E Primary School St Oswald's C of E Primary School

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Primary Planning Schools Area Bawnmore Infant School Bilton Infant School Bilton C of E Junior School Rugby West Cawston Grange Primary School Henry Hinde Infant School Henry Hinde Junior School Dunchurch Infant School Dunchurch Dunchurch Boughton C of E Junior School Leamington Hastings C of E Infant School Binley Woods Primary School Knightlow C of E Primary School Rugby Rural Our Lady's Catholic Primary School Provost Williams C of E Primary School Wolston St Margaret's C of E Primary School The Revel The Revel C of E Primary School Long Lawford Long Lawford Primary School All Saints' C of E Primary School Burton Green C of E Primary School Clinton Primary School Park Hill Junior School Kenilworth Priors Field Primary School St Augustine's Catholic Primary School St John's Primary School St Nicholas C of E Primary School Thorns Infant School Brookhurst Primary School Cubbington C of E Primary School Lillington Primary School Milverton Primary School North Leamington Our Lady & St Teresa's Catholic Primary School St Paul's C of E Primary School St Peter's Catholic Primary School Telford Infant School Telford Junior School

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Primary Planning Schools Area Bishop's Tachbrook C of E Primary School Briar Hill Infant School Clapham Terrace Primary School Heathcote Primary School Kingsway Primary School Shrubland Street Primary School South Leamington St Anthony's Catholic Primary School St Joseph's Catholic Primary School St Margaret's C of E Junior School St Patrick's Catholic Primary School Sydenham Primary School Whitnash Primary School Radford Semele Radford Semele C of E Primary School Bishop's Itchington Primary School Harbury C of E Primary School Long Itchington C of E Primary School Southam Southam Primary School Southam St James' C of E Primary School St Mary's Catholic Primary School Stockton Primary School St Lawrence C of E Primary School Napton The Priors School All Saint's C of E Junior School Aylesford School (Primary) Budbrooke Primary School Coten End Primary School Warwick Emscote Infant School Newburgh Primary School St Mary Immaculate Catholic Primary School Westgate Primary School Woodloes Primary School Coughton C of E Primary School Great Alne Primary School Alcester Tudor Grange Primary Academy, Haselor Our Lady's Catholic Primary School St Nicholas' C of E Primary School Bidford-On-Avon C of E Primary School Dunnington C of E Primary School Bidford Salford Priors C of E Primary School Temple Grafton C of E Primary School Claverdon Claverdon Primary School

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Primary Planning Schools Area Henley-in-Arden Primary School Henley St Mary's Catholic Primary School Wootton Wawen C of E Primary School Tanworth Tanworth-in-Arden C of E Primary School The Dassett C of E Primary School The Dassett Temple Herdewyke Primary School Ettington Ettington C of E Primary School Kineton C of E Primary School Lighthorne Heath Primary School Kineton Moreton Morrell C of E Primary School Wellesbourne C of E Primary School Tysoe Tysoe C of E Primary School Acorns Primary School Compton and Brailes Brailes C of E Primary School Ilmington Ilmington C of E Primary School Quinton Primary School Quinton Tudor Grange Primary Academy, Meon Vale Newbold and Tredington C of E Primary School Shipston Shipston-on-Stour Primary School Barford St Peter's C of E Primary School Hampton Lucy C of E Primary School Loxley C of E Primary School Stratford Rural Snitterfield Primary School Wilmcote C of E Primary School Wolverton Primary School Alveston C of E Primary School Bishopton Primary School Bridge Town Primary School Shottery St Andrew's C of E Primary School Stratford Town St Gregory's Catholic Primary School Stratford-upon-Avon Primary School Thomas Jolyffe Primary School Holy Trinity C of E Primary School (formerly The Willows) Welford Welford-on-Avon Primary School Mappleborough Green C of E Primary School St Mary's Catholic Primary School Studley Studley St Mary's C of E Academy Studley Infant School The Ferncumbe C of E Primary School Warwick Rural Lapworth C of E Primary School

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11. Appendix 2 – Secondary Planning Areas

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Secondary Planning Area Schools Atherstone The Queen Elizabeth Academy Coleshill The Coleshill School Kingsbury Kingsbury School Polesworth The Polesworth School Ash Green School Bedworth Nicholas Chamberlaine School Hartshill Hartshill School Etone College Higham Lane School Nuneaton St Thomas More Catholic School The George Eliot School The Nuneaton Academy Ashlawn School Bilton School Harris C of E Academy Rugby South Lawrence Sheriff School Rugby High School Rugby Free Secondary School Rugby North The Avon Valley School Aylesford School Campion School Warwick and Leamington Myton School North Leamington School Trinity Catholic School Kenilworth Kenilworth School Southam Southam College Alcester Academy Alcester Grammar School Alcester and Studley St Benedict’s Catholic High School Studley High School Henley In Arden Henley In Arden School Kineton Kineton High School Shipston Shipston High School King Edward VI School Stratford Stratford Girls' Grammar School Stratford Upon Avon School

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12. Appendix 3 – Pupil yield figures

The following pupil yield figures are currently used when calculating the expected additional pupils generated by new housing development.

Current pupil yield per year Area group, per 100 new homes

North Warwickshire Borough 2.75

Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough 2.97

Rugby Borough 4.83

Stratford on Avon District 3.56

Warwick District 4.54

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Page 70 Page 1 of 4 Agenda Item 8

Item 8

Schools Forum

18 March 2021

Academy Update

This report relates to maintained and academy schools and is for information and comment

Recommendation

The School Forum is recommended to:

1. Note the number of academy schools and new conversions 2. Note the academy trust associated with each Warwickshire Academy

1. Introduction

1.1 The Schools Forum receives update reports on the number of academy schools and any new or expected conversions when conversions take place.

1.2 Conversions were last reported to School Forum in October 2019 following the conversions of Kineton High School and Stockingford Primary School on 1 September 2019.

2. The current position

2.1 The table below details the current profile of Warwickshire Schools.

School Type Maintained Academies Free In Progress Total Schools (all schools) Primary 123 58 6 7 194 Secondary 1 33 1 0 35 Special 2 7 1 0 10 All-through 0 1 0 0 1 TOTAL 126 99 8 7 240 Table 1: Current school breakdown in Warwickshire (In Process schools are schools that have started proceedings to convert to Academy status). Maintained Nursery Schools are not permitted to convert to Academy status

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2.2 There have been 4 schools converting to academy status since the last Schools Forum report in October 2019:

 Kingsway Community Primary School joined the Community Academies Trust (CAT) on 1 January 2021.  Lillington Primary School joined the Finham Park MAT on 1 January 2021.  Trinity Catholic School joined the Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic MAT on 1 January 2021.  All Saints C of E Primary School, Bedworth joined the Diocese of Coventry on 1 February 2021.

2.3 This now means that 42.7% of Warwickshire maintained schools have converted to academy status. Whilst the conversions by phase are primary schools (30.9%), secondary schools (97.1%) and special schools (77.8%).

2.4 The following table details schools actively in progress of converting and the anticipated date of conversion.

Anticipated School Conversion Date Brailes C.Of E. Primary School 01/08/2021 St. Edward's Catholic Primary School 01/04/2021 Studley Infant School 01/04/2021 The Ferncumbe C.Of E. Primary School 01/04/2021 Tysoe C.Of E. Primary School 01/04/2021 Wellesbourne C.Of E. Primary School 01/04/2021 Wootton Wawen C.Of E. Primary School 01/04/2021 Table 2: Expected conversions

2.5 There are currently only 1 maintained secondary school and 2 maintained special schools in Warwickshire.

2.6 There are also 130 maintained schools in the primary phase in Warwickshire, comprising 20 infant schools, 13 Junior schools and 97 primary schools. In addition 60 of the 130 primary phase school are faith schools.

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3. Current Warwickshire Academies

3.1 The following table details the academy trusts for Warwickshire academies and how many schools they sponsor.

as % of all Sponsor or Trust Responsible Number of academy Schools schools Academy Transformation Trust (ATT) 1 1.0% Caludon Castle School 1 1.0% Community Academies Trust (CAT) 8 8.1% Creative Education Trust 1 1.0% Diocese of Birmingham Education Trust 3 3.0% Diocese of Coventry 14 14.1% Finham Park MAT 1 1.0% Heartwood Church of England Academy Trust 4 4.0% Holy Family MAC 3 3.0% Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 5 5.1% Inspire Education Trust 1 1.0% Kenilworth MAT 1 1.0% Lawrence Sheriff School 1 1.0% MacIntyre 1 1.0% MAT Sponsored Academy 2 2.0% Matrix Academy Trust 1 1.0% NET Academies Trust (NETAT) 1 1.0% Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic MAT 1 1.0% REAch2 Academy Trust 3 3.0% Stand Alone 20 20.2% Stowe Valley MAT 8 8.1% Tanworth in Arden Academy Trust 1 1.0% The Arden Forrest MAT 2 2.0% The Arthur Terry School 2 2.0% The Futures Trust 1 1.0% The Griffin Schools Trust 3 3.0% The Midland Academies Trust 3 3.0% The Stour Federation 2 2.0% Transforming Lives Educational Trust 1 1.0% Tudor Grange Academies Trust 1 1.0% Academy Transformation Trust (ATT) 2 2.0% TOTALS 99 100%

Table 3: Number of Academy schools by sponsor

3.2 It is worth noting that maintained schools cannot convert as a stand alone academy, they have to have a sponsor.

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3.3 The full details of all academy schools are given in Appendix 1, showing the school type, sponsor and conversion date.

3.4 The following chart shows the number of academy conversions each academic year since 2010/11

Academy Convertors by Academic Year 18

Chart 1: Academy convertors by academic year

Neill Butler School Funding and Strategy Manager

Author Contact Details Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 412240

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DfE No.School Name Type Phase Area Sponsor Date Converted 2639 Acorns Primary School Primary Primary Southern The Stour Federation 01/09/2014 4240 Alcester Academy Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/08/2011 5407 Alcester Grammar School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/04/2011 3588 All Saints C of E (VA) Primary School, Leek Wootton Primary Primary Central Diocese of Coventry 01/03/2018 3301 All Saints C of E Primary School, Bedworth Primary Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth Diocese of Coventry 01/02/2021 5401 Ash Green School Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & BedworthCreative Education Trust 01/01/2012 4241 Ashlawn School Secondary Secondary Eastern Transforming Lives Educational Trust 01/04/2011 3007 Austrey C of E Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Heartwood Church of England Academy Trust 01/09/2013 4190 Aylesford School and Sixth Form College All Through All ThroughCentral Stand Alone 01/01/2012 4014 Bilton School Secondary SecondaryEastern Stowe Valley MAT 01/12/2011 2619 Birchwood Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/11/2012 2014 Bishop Itchington Primary School Primary Primary Central Stowe Valley MAT 01/07/2018 7023 Brooke School All Through SpecialSpecial Eastern Unity MAT 01/12/2017

Page 75 Page 2033 Budbrooke Primary School Primary Primary Central Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/10/2014 3143 Burton Green C of E Primary School Primary Primary Central Diocese of Coventry 01/03/2018 4192 Campion School Secondary SecondaryCentral Stand Alone 01/01/2012 3594 Cawston Grange Primary School Primary Primary Eastern Stand Alone 01/09/2013 3586 Coleshill C of E Primary school Primary Primary North Warwickshire Diocese of Birmingham Education Trust 01/09/2018 3021 Coughton C of E Primary school Primary Primary Southern The Arden Forrest MAT 01/04/2018 2502 Curdworth Primary Schools Primary Primary North Warwickshire The Arthur Terry School 01/11/2018 7003 Discovery Academy All Through SpecialSpecial Nuneaton & BedworthMacIntyre 01/09/2015 2010 Dordon Community Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/11/2012 4004 Etone College Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & BedworthMatrix Academy Trust 01/01/2012 4006 Harris C of E Academy Secondary Secondary Eastern Diocese of Coventry 01/01/2014 5402 Hartshill School of Science and the Arts Secondary Secondary North Warwickshire The Midland Academies Trust 01/09/2012 2059 Henley-In-Arden C of E Primary School Primary Primary Southern Stand Alone 01/08/2011 4108 Henley-In-Arden School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/09/2013 2424 Henry Hinde Infant School Infant Primary Eastern Stand Alone 01/04/2012 2022 Henry Hinde Junior School Junior Primary Eastern NET Academies Trust (NETAT) 01/01/2014 4153 Higham Lane School A Business and Enterprise College Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & Bedworth Stand Alone 01/01/2012 4236 Kenilworth School and Sports College Secondary Secondary Central Kenilworth MAT 01/01/2019

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DfE No.School Name Type Phase Area Sponsor Date Converted 2065 Keresley Newland Primary Academy Primary Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth The Futures Trust 01/03/2015 4110 Kineton High School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stowe Valley MAT 01/09/2019 4601 King Edward VI School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 17/08/2011 4012 Kingsbury School - A Specialist Science and Mathematics Academy Secondary Secondary North Warwickshire Caludon Castle School 01/03/2015 2060 Kingsway Community Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/01/2021 4620 Lawrence Sheriff School Secondary Secondary Eastern Lawrence Sheriff School 01/09/2014 3180 Leamington Hastings C of E Academy Infant Primary Eastern Diocese of Coventry 01/09/2015 2071 Lillington Primary School Primary Primary Central Finham Park MAT 01/01/2021 3211 Long Itchington C of E Primary School Primary Primary Central Diocese of Coventry 01/10/2018 5403 Myton School A Specialist Science College and Training School Secondary Secondary Central Stand Alone 01/07/2011 3047 Newton Regis C of E Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Heartwood Church of England Academy Trust 01/09/2013 4003 Nicholas Chamberlaine School Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & Bedworth The Griffin Schools Trust 01/09/2013 4237 North Leamington School Secondary SecondaryCentral Stand Alone 01/09/2016

Page 76 Page 7002 Oak Wood Primary School Primary Special Special Nuneaton & BedworthStand Alone 01/04/2013 7046 Oak Wood Secondary School Secondary Special Special Nuneaton & BedworthStand Alone 01/04/2013 2008 Oakfield Primary School Primary Primary Eastern REAch2 Academy Trust 01/11/2012 3584 Our Lady and St Joseph Catholic Academy Infant Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 01/10/2016 3500 Our Lady's Catholic Primary School, Alcester Primary Primary Southern Holy Family MAC 01/04/2017 2015 Park Lane Primary School Primary Primary Nuneaton & BedworthThe Griffin Schools Trust 01/11/2013 2025 Queens C of E Academy Junior Primary Nuneaton & BedworthDiocese of Coventry 01/01/2014 2003 Race Leys Junior School Junior Primary Nuneaton & BedworthThe Griffin Schools Trust 01/09/2012 2019 Racemeadow Primary Academy Primary Primary North Warwickshire REAch2 Academy Trust 01/11/2013 3597 Rokeby Primary School Primary Primary Eastern Stowe Valley MAT 01/01/2019 5406 Rugby High School Secondary SecondaryEastern Stand Alone 01/04/2011 2057 Salford Priors C of E Academy Primary Primary Southern Diocese of Coventry 01/01/2018 4113 Shipston High School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/09/2012 5206 Shipston Primary School Primary Primary Southern The Stour Federation 01/09/2014 4114 Southam College Secondary SecondaryCentral Stowe Valley MAT 01/04/2017 2624 Southam Primary School Primary Primary Central Stowe Valley MAT 01/03/2018 3585 Southam St James C of E Primary school Primary Primary Central Diocese of Coventry 01/10/2018 2035 St. Anne's Catholic Primary School Primary Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 01/03/2015

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DfE No.School Name Type Phase Area Sponsor Date Converted 4730 St. Benedict's Catholic High School Secondary Secondary Southern Holy Family MAC 01/04/2017 3501 St. Benedict's Catholic Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 01/03/2015 3502 St. Francis Catholic Primary School Primary Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 01/03/2015 3506 St. Gregory's Catholic Primary School Primary Primary Southern Holy Family MAC 01/04/2017 2026 St. James C of E Academy Junior Primary Nuneaton & BedworthDiocese of Coventry 01/04/2014 3508 St. Mary's Catholic Primary School, Henley in Arden Primary Primary Southern Diocese of Birmingham Education Trust 01/04/2017 2039 St. Michael's C of E Primary School, Bedworth Primary Primary Nuneaton & Bedworth Diocese of Coventry 01/07/2015 3595 St. Nicholas' C of E Primary School, Alcester Primary Primary Southern Stand Alone 01/04/2013 3592 St. Nicolas C of E Academy Primary Primary Nuneaton & BedworthDiocese of Coventry 01/05/2014 2041 St. Oswald's C of E Primary School Primary Primary Eastern Diocese of Coventry 01/07/2015 4803 St. Thomas More Catholic School and Sixth Form College Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & Bedworth Holy Spirit MAC (Warwickshire) 01/03/2015 2069 Stockingford Academy Primary Primary Nuneaton & BedworthInspire Education Trust 01/09/2019 2049 Stockton Primary School Primary Primary Primary Stowe Valley MAT 01/02/2018

Page 77 Page 4002 Stratford Girls' Grammar School Secondary Secondary Southern Stand Alone 01/08/2011 2042 Stratford-upon-Avon Primary School Primary Primary Southern Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/08/2011 4124 Stratford-upon-Avon School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/03/2016 5408 Studley High School Secondary SecondarySouthern Stand Alone 01/06/2011 2027 Studley St Mary's C of E Academy Junior Primary Southern Diocese of Coventry 01/07/2014 3311 Tanworth-In-Arden C of E Primary School Primary Primary Southern Tanworth in Arden Academy Trust 01/11/2012 3066 Temple Grafton C of E Primary school Primary Primary Southern The Arden Forrest MAT 01/04/2018 2610 Temple Herdewyke Primary School Primary Primary Southern Stowe Valley MAT 01/02/2019 4233 The Coleshill School - A Business and Enterprise Academy Secondary Secondary North Warwickshire The Arthur Terry School 01/08/2011 4000 The George Eliot School Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & Bedworth The Midland Academies Trust 01/09/2011 2011 The Nethersole C of E Academy Primary Primary North Warwickshire Diocese of Birmingham Education Trust 01/04/2013 6905 The Nuneaton Academy Secondary Secondary Nuneaton & Bedworth The Midland Academies Trust 01/09/2010 4112 The Polesworth School - A specialist Language College Secondary Secondary North Warwickshire Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/02/2011 4005 The Queen Elizabeth Academy Secondary Secondary North Warwickshire Academy Transformation Trust (ATT) 01/09/2014 2006 The Riverside Academy Primary Primary Eastern REAch2 Academy Trust 01/11/2012 4752 Trinity Catholic School Secondary Secondary Central Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic MAT 01/01/2021 5200 Tudor Grange Primary Academy Haselor Primary Primary Southern Tudor Grange Academies Trust 01/01/2014 7005 Venture Academy Secondary Special Special Southern MAT Sponsored Academy 01/05/2018

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DfE No.School Name Type Phase Area Sponsor Date Converted 3072 Warton Nethersole's C of E Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Heartwood Church of England Academy Trust 01/09/2013 7044 Welcombe Hills School All Through SpecialSpecial Southern MAT Sponsored Academy 01/05/2018 2023 Wood End Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/01/2014 7047 Woodlands School All Through SpecialSpecial North Warwickshire Unity MAT 01/12/2017 5207 Woodloes Primary School Primary Primary Central Community Academies Trust (CAT) 01/03/2015 2642 Woodside C of E Primary School Primary Primary North Warwickshire Heartwood Church of England Academy Trust 01/09/2013 Page 78 Page

Page 4 of 4 Page 1 of 12 Agenda Item 9

Item 9 Schools Forum

18 March 2021

SEND & Inclusion Change Programme

This report relates to both maintained and academy schools and all members of the schools forum and is for information and comment.

Recommendations

The schools forum is recommended to: 1. comment upon progress of the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme 2. consider if individual school form members wish to be part of the School Top-Up Funding project

1. Purpose

1.1 The report provides an update on activity on the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) & Inclusion Change Programme since the previous report to School Forum in January 2021 .

2. SEND & Inclusion Change Programme

2.1 The vision for SEND in Warwickshire is that all our children and young people lead a fulfilling life and are part of their community.

2.2 Through the SEND & Inclusion Change Programme we will work together to:  Improve outcomes for our children and young people with SEND  Take decisions in a clear, fair and transparent way  Ensure that systems are sustainable, so that we are working within our allocated funding

2.3 Of the 31 projects, seven of projects have targets to close the gap between funding allocation and expenditure. Three existing items have savings attached for 2020/21, three more expect reductions in spend in 2021/22.

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3. Summary update on Programme and Projects

3.1 The project approach adopted by Warwickshire County Council is: a) Project have initial approval of a Project Proposal Document (PPD) b) A business case is then developed including mapping of the ‘as-is’ position and ‘to-be’ position, along with the plan to move from one to the other and confirmation of the benefits c) Projects go live for implementation

3.2 Overall, three projects are now live, eleven are developing full business case and plan,

two are developing PPD, three have been deferred.

3.3 The full list of projects and the timeline for phase 1 is attached at Appendix 1. Overarching performance indicators are shown at Appendix 2 and a more detailed update on projects in the DSG Recovery and DSG Sustainability strands are reported in Appendix 3.

3.4 Most projects in the DSG strands are still developing business cases or have only recently moved into implementation. As is evident from DSG monitoring report, spend has increased. However, a number of activity metrics are ahead of target (ie. numbers in ISP are lower than forecast, expansion of state-funded specialist provision is greater than expected, the growth in EHC plans is lower than forecast). The forecast which requires most revision is Supported Internships, due to the impact of the pandemic on work-based placements. This is currently business as usual work, with the project itself planned for phase 2.

4. Next steps

4.1 There is a need to investigate in more detail where the pressures are (eg. unit cost, primary need type). The project to move all financial information on to Synergy is key to improving this reporting, but has been delayed whilst discussions take place with the supplier on how delivering the identified requirements. In addition, new cost centres are being created to address the issue of different types of spend coming from one cost centre (eg. a mix of alternative provision and resourced provision).

4.2 This should in turn inform an updated financial forecast based upon the latest profile, activity and performance data.

Ross Caws SEND & Inclusion Strategy and Commissioning Lead Email: [email protected] Tel: 01926 745105

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Appendix 1: Update on active projects & Phase 1 timeline Page 81 Page

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Appendix 2: SEND & Inclusion Change Programme High Level Performance Data - February 2021

(NB:  getting better;  getting worse)

Description Measure Measure Notes SN Av Nat Historical data Direction Period Av

No. of EHC plans 4581 Feb 2021 School age (SA) 4281 Jan20 (2737 2980 SA)

% school age population with 3.4% 2020 tbc 3.3% 3.2% Warks, EHC plans 3.2% SN, 3.1% National % of learners with EHC plans 46% Feb 2021 All – 1363 of 2980 N/a N/a 43% Nov 20  educated in mainstream Prim 54%, Pri – 800 of 1478 (Prim 51%, provision at school age

Page 82 Page Sec 38% Sec – 563 of 1502 Sec 35%) 41% Nov19 % of learners with EHC plans 45% Feb 2021 All - 1327 of 2980 N/a N/a 45% Nov 20  educated in state funded Prim 41%, Pri - 602 of 1478 (Prim 42%, Sec specialist provision at school Sec 48% Sec - 725 of 1502 49%) age 47% Nov19 % of learners educated in 7.4% Feb 2021 220 of 2980 4.8% 5.0% 8.62% Jan20  independent specialist provision SA SA – school age (KPI) (2019) (2019) Attainment 8 score (pupils with 39.9 2019/20 35.0 No historical SEN Support) comparisons to be made

Attainment 8 score (pupils with 17.3 2019/20 16.0 No historical EHC plan) comparisons to be made

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Appendix 3: Update on projects in DSG Recovery Plan and DSG Sustainability Plan

DSG Recovery Plan

1 Project: Resourced Provision - full utilisation and increased capacity Phase: 2 Project status: Not started (Business as usual still active) Estimated Cost avoidance through placements in state-funded resourced provision rather than state-funded specialist savings/(cost) avoidance: provision.

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000)

2020/21 £148 £148 Page 83 Page 2021/22 £358 £506 Financial Assumptions:  Numbers in commissioned resourced provision will increase by a total of 68 places, this is split into years below: 11 by 2020/21 31 by 2021/22  Assumption that each placement in a resourced provision will avoid a placement in a specialist setting. Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reduction against forecast spend on state funded special schools (Cost centre HC606)  Service reporting: Increase spend in resourced provision (Cost centre HC610) Activity Progress:  80 learners now placed in resourced provision (10 more than beginning of the year). However still an under- utilisation (72%) as 111 places available. 16 further places being commissioned from September 2021.

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2 Project: New special school (The Warwickshire Academy) and utilisation of available special school places (Venture Academy and Evergreen secondary) Phase: 1 Project status: Live- implementation (from January 2020) Estimated Cost avoidance through placements in state-funded specialist education rather than independent specialist savings/(cost) avoidance: provision (ISP).

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000) 2020/21 £0 £0 2021/22 £850 £850 Financial Assumptions:  Cost avoidance in ISP through increased placements in local specialist provision (saving between £20,322 and £36,047 depending on placement) Page 84 Page Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reduction against forecast spend on ISP (Cost centre HC607)  Service reporting: Increase spend in state funded special schools (Cost centre HC606) Activity Progress:  Overall numbers of learners with EHCPs at school age in ISP is 220 (7.4%). This is lower than same time last year, which was 228 (8.4%).  Venture is up to commissioned number for 2020/21 (35). 7 additional places commissioned for September (the forecast was for 3 additional places).  Evergreen has already increased its commissioned number up to 268. This is an increase of 19 places since new school was constituted (the forecast was for 15 additional places).  Warwickshire Academy is scheduled to open in September 2021. 32 places commissioned.

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3 Project: Trial 2: Need-focussed panels / Aligning growth with statistical neighbours Phase: 1 Project status: Developing business case (provisionally agreed by Programme Board) Estimated Cost avoidance reducing the growth rate of EHC plans, following changes to guidance and decision-making panels savings/(cost) avoidance: Decision-making by panels, based on refreshed guidance, should also lead to more children with EHC plans being supported with appropriate packages in mainstream settings.

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000)

2020/21 £0 £0 2021/22 £279 £279 Financial Assumptions:  The percentage growth in EHC plans will reduce from 18% in 2019/20 to Page 85 Page 15% in 2020/21 (Net increase of 77 EHC plans issued) 10% in 2021/22 (Net increase of 58 EHC plans issued)  That the reduction in EHC plans issued against as-is growth forecast will lead to cost avoidance Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Not identifiable from one single cost centre Activity Progress:  New panels to start from 1 April 2021, but direction of travel to promote inclusion has been set.  Historical data 2018/19 financial year 463 new EHC plans issued (19% more than previous year) 2019/20 544 financial year new EHC plans issued (17% more than previous year)  2020/21 499 new EHC plans issued plus 18 EHC plans due (27 fewer, 5% less than previous year; forecast within the change programme was for 621 new EHC plans to be issued, 15% increase)

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4 Project: Improve timeliness of EHC plans in early years Phase: 1 Project status: Developing business case Estimated Initial cost increase with greater packages of support for some children aged 0-4. However, long term it savings/(cost) avoidance: is expected to see fewer children with EHC plans being admitted into reception year at special school, as they will be placed at mainstream schools.

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000) 2020/21 (£11) (£11) 2021/22 (£200) (£211) Financial Assumptions:  Numbers of children with EHC plans aged 0-4 to increase  Numbers in reception year in special schools reduce by 20% and transfer to mainstream schools.

Page 86 Page  Assumption that each placement in a mainstream provision will on average avoid a placement in state- funded special school at an annual cost avoidance of £0.5k in 2020/21 and £0.1K in 2021/22 (this figure will change year on year due to transitions, growth and inflation) Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reduction against forecast spend on state-funded special schools (Cost centre HC606)  Service reporting: Increase spend in mainstream schools (Cost centre HC607) Activity Progress:  Project not yet in implementation  1 EHC plan aged 0-3; 23 EHC plans aged 3-4

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5 Project: Reducing the use of alternative provision Phase: 1 Project status: Developing business case Estimated Reducing costs of alternative provision through appropriate use of alternative provision placements and savings/(cost) avoidance: managing the costs of individual placements through improved commissioning

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000)

2020/21 £0 £0 2021/22 £730 £730 Financial Assumptions:  Numbers of children with EHC plans aged 0-4 to increase

Page 87 Page 1 in 5 pupils placed in alternative provision to return to mainstream provision. This is a reduction of 20%, assuming that 80% are not on roll.  Figures based on number of payments to providers as opposed to synergy. Therefore, activity monitoring must be improved.  Assumption that each placement in a mainstream provision will be an enhanced package, but less expensive than alternative provision. Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reduction against forecast spend on alternative provision (Cost centres HD409 & HD411)  Service reporting: Increase spend in mainstream schools (Cost centre HC605) Activity Progress:  An underspend is forecast Alternative Provision for learners without EHC plans  A new cost centre (HD411) is being put in place for 2021/22 solely for the use of Alternative Provision for learners with EHC plans (currently placements are resourced from a range of cost centres)  To compare figures, this must be based on financial figures and this cannot be done until Synergy module implemented  From the work on the ‘Not on a school roll’ project, a number of children are now back on a school roll. The alternative provision census submitted in February 2021 has reduced from 514 to 390 (reduction of 124 across all ages, including ISP).

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6 Project: Reducing spend on residential placements by limiting price increase to 1% Phase: Not applicable Project status: Business as usual task Estimated Cost avoidance through limiting residential ISP cost increases to 1% in accordance with ISP framework contract savings/(cost) avoidance: Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000)

2020/21 £32 £32 2021/22 £64 £96 Financial Assumptions:  That unit costs will be limited to 1% inflation (in line with local framework) Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reported as part of ISP expenditure (Cost centre HC607) Activity Progress:  Numbers in residential settings have increased from 31 to 39 Page 88 Page  Whilst the unit cost for residential placements has decreased from £79k to £69k, activity has increased, resulting in increased overall spend of £100k

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7 Project: Supported internships Phase: 2 Project status: Not started Estimated Cost avoidance through young people with EHC plans securing full time employment rather than continuing savings/(cost) avoidance: education.

Year (£’000) Cumulative (£’000) 2020/21 £486 £486 2021/22 £627 £1,113 Financial Assumptions:  Numbers of young people on supported internships to increase each year to 60 in 2020/21, 80 in 2021/22 and 100 thereafter.  Percentage of young people on supported internships securing employment is 75%. As the number of

Page 89 Page young people on supported internships increases the number of young people securing employment will also increase.  Assumption that each successful supported internship leads to a ceased EHC plan with an average annual cost avoidance  Savings are multiplied based on post-16 pathways Finance monitoring:  Service reporting: Reduction against forecast spend on post-16 and special schools (Cost centres HD112 and HC606) Relevant Performance  The number of learners on supported internships has reduced to 20, following the impact of the monitoring: pandemic on employers, particularly in the hospitality sector; forecasts to be revised.

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8 Project: Value for money service reviews Phase: 1 Project status: Developing business case Estimated Reviews will identify further savings or cost avoidance through different ways of working. savings/(cost) avoidance: 2020/21 To be confirmed following review 2021/22 To be confirmed following review Financial Assumptions:  Reviews will identify further savings or cost avoidance Finance monitoring:  Dependent on outcomes of reviews – but should include monitoring of the cost drivers of the spend in question Activity Progress:  Six reviews to take place; two reviews well progressed (Flex Learning and STS/IDS)  On track to report in May 2021

Page 90 Page DSG Sustainability Plan

Project: Implementation of the SEND finance module in Synergy Phase: 1 Project status: Developing Business Case Estimated savings/cost None. avoidance: This project will enable better financial reporting and improved forecasting. Activity Progress: Delayed due to ongoing discussion with supplier as to how to meet the identified system requirements

Project: Schools Top-up Funding Phase: 1 (brought forward) Project cohort: Developing Business Case Estimated savings/cost No savings currently forecast – assume cost neutral. avoidance: Modelling to take place on options. Focus on moving resources upstream. Activity Progress:  First meeting of sub-group held in March 2021

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