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Tesina De Valuación: Jetblue Maestría en Finanzas Tesina Final Tesina de valuación: JetBlue Alumno: Matías Lara Mateos DNI: 34.373.065 Profesor Tutor: Alejandro E. Loizaga Tesina de Valuación: JetBlue LARA MATEOS, Matías Buenos Aires, noviembre 2015 Índice I. Introducción ................................................................................................................................ 3 II. Industria ...................................................................................................................................... 4 II.1. Indicadores y conceptos ........................................................................................................... 5 II.2. ¿Por qué se necesitan estos indicadores? ............................................................................... 6 II.3. Datos y perspectivas ................................................................................................................ 7 III. Low Cost Carries (LCC) ........................................................................................................... 11 III.1. ¿A qué se llama aerolínea de bajo costo o LCC? ................................................................... 11 III.2. Características ....................................................................................................................... 11 III.3. Breve historia de las LCC ....................................................................................................... 13 III.4. Modelo de negocio. Comparación con Legacy o Full Service Airlines................................... 14 IV. Drivers del negocio ................................................................................................................ 18 IV.1. Precio del combustible .......................................................................................................... 18 IV.2. Nivel de actividad económica ............................................................................................... 20 V. Factores de Riesgo .................................................................................................................... 22 V.1. Deudas ................................................................................................................................... 22 V.2. Otros Costos ........................................................................................................................... 23 V.3. Riesgos asociados con la industria ......................................................................................... 23 VI. JetBlue ................................................................................................................................... 25 VI.1. Historia .................................................................................................................................. 25 VI.2. Negocio ................................................................................................................................. 26 VII. Valuación ............................................................................................................................... 29 VII.1. Metodología ......................................................................................................................... 29 VII.2. WACC (Tasa de descuento) .................................................................................................. 29 VII.3. Flujo de fondos proyectados ................................................................................................ 30 Ingresos ............................................................................................................................. 31 Gastos: ............................................................................................................................... 32 Capital de Trabajo ............................................................................................................. 34 1 Tesina de Valuación: JetBlue LARA MATEOS, Matías Capital expenditures (CAPEX): .......................................................................................... 35 Valor a Perpetuidad........................................................................................................... 35 VIII. Análisis de escenarios............................................................................................................ 37 VIII.1. Precio del petróleo .............................................................................................................. 37 VIII.2. Nivel de actividad económica ............................................................................................. 38 IX. Valuación por Múltiplos ........................................................................................................ 41 X. Anexo A ..................................................................................................................................... 43 A.1. Proyecciones de Ingresos ....................................................................................................... 43 A.2. Proyecciones de Gastos ......................................................................................................... 44 A.3. Calculo EBITDA ....................................................................................................................... 45 XI. Anexo B ................................................................................................................................. 46 B.1. Análisis de la deuda de JetBlue .............................................................................................. 46 XII. Anexo C (Análisis de escenarios – Variación del precio del petróleo) .................................. 48 C.1. Proyecciones de Ingresos ....................................................................................................... 48 C.2. Proyecciones de Gastos (Precio del petróleo 10% mayor al proyectado) ............................. 49 C.3. Calculo EBITDA (Precio del petróleo 10% mayor al proyectado) ........................................... 50 C.4. Proyecciones de Gastos (Precio del petróleo 10% menor al proyectado) ............................. 51 C.5. Calculo EBITDA (Precio del petróleo 10% menor al proyectado) .......................................... 52 XIII. Anexo D (Análisis de escenarios – Variación del nivel de actividad económica) .................. 53 D.1. Proyecciones de Ingresos (Nivel de actividad económica mayor a la esperada) .................. 53 D.2. Proyecciones de Gastos (Nivel de actividad económica mayor a la esperada) ..................... 54 D.3. Calculo EBITDA (Nivel de actividad económica mayor a la esperada) ................................... 55 D.4. Proyecciones de Ingresos (Nivel de actividad económica menor a la esperada) .................. 56 D.5. Proyecciones de Gastos (Nivel de actividad económica menor a la esperada) .................... 57 D.6. Calculo EBITDA (Nivel de actividad económica menor a la esperada) .................................. 58 XII. Bibliografía ............................................................................................................................ 59 2 Tesina de Valuación: JetBlue LARA MATEOS, Matías I. Introducción El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo determinar el valor de la empresa norteamericana JetBlue Airways, aerolínea catalogada como Low Cost Carrier. JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) es una compañía aérea estadounidense fundada en 1999, (aunque su primer vuelo fue llevado a cabo en febrero del año 2000) con bases en el aeropuerto John F. Kennedy (JFK) en la ciudad de Nueva York. La misma se caracteriza por ser una aerolínea de bajo costo (LCC, por sus siglas en inglés: Low Cost Carrier). Trasporta más de 30 millones de pasajeros por año en 87 ciudades en Estados Unidos, Caribe y Latinoamérica con un promedio de 850 vuelos diarios.1 Se analiza la historia de la industria así como también de la propia empresa, los drivers del negocio, los riesgos a los cuales se encuentra expuesta la compañía y los principales indicadores, tanto para la empresa como para sus principales competidores en la industria. Para determinar el valor de la compañía se adoptará el método de Flujo de Fondos Descontados (DCF por su sigla en inglés: Discounted Cash Flow). Dicho método asume que el valor de la empresa está dado por el valor presente del flujo de fondos esperado futuro de la compañía. Por otra parte y como complemento del análisis del DCF se realizara una valuación por múltiplos. Dicho análisis tiene como objetivo, además de la valuación de la empresa, servir como refuerzo del análisis hecho con el Flujo de Fondos Descontado. En el mismo se eligen empresas de similares características a la aerolínea bajo análisis para llevar a cabo la comparación. Cabe resaltar que tanto para el DCF como para la valuación por múltiplos se lleva a cabo un análisis de sensibilidad mediante el cual se permite observar el valor de la compañía para escenarios con menor probabilidad de ocurrencia al planteado como escenario base. Esto nos permite dar una idea de un rango de valores que puede llegar a alcanzar la aerolínea. A su vez también se realizan análisis de escenarios para tener en cuenta el cambio que pueden sufrir las variables a las cuales se encuentra expuesta la empresa. Para ello es que sirve analizar los principales drivers de la industria y sensibilizarlos. 1 JetBlue Annuonces Q4 2014 Results. January 29, 2015. 3 Tesina de Valuación: JetBlue LARA MATEOS, Matías
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