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Market Report Office Q1-2021-RC

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Market Report Office Q1-2021-RC Toronto Office 2021 Market Insight Report Q1 2021 Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 1 Toronto Office Market Overview Q1 2021 Market Trends Kingsett Capital’s#Scotia#Plaza#at#40#King#Street#&#100#Yonge#Street The$Greater$Toronto$Area’s$(GTA)$absorption$dropped$sharply$to$start$the$new$year,$recorded$at$92M$for$the$quarter$as$ the$COVID919$pandemic$continues$to$take$its$toll$on$occupiers.$As$Ontarians$once$again$face$another$lockdown,$the$GTA’s$ vacancy$rate$has$further$increased$to$7.1%,$although$at$a$slower$pace$than$previously$projected. Sublease$markets$continued$to$grow$this$quarter$as$subleases$now$make$up$26.7%$of$available$space$across$the$GTA.$New$ to$the$sublease$market$technology$companies;$Slack,$Drop$Technologies,$and$the$IBM$Innovation$Centre$contributed$to$ this$growth$as$Toronto’s$tech9focused$Downtown$West$market$leads$the$GTA,$registering$49.6%$of$sublease$availability$as$ a$proportion$of$general$availability. A$large$majority$of$the$market’s$negative$absorption$came$from$the$Toronto$West$market,$recording$nearly$91M$square$ feet.$Though$it$is$important$to$recognize$that$over$half$of$this$negative$absorption$was$due$to$Bell$Canada's$previously$ planned$downsize$of$617,000$sf$at$their$Creekbank$campus$located$at$5025$and$5115$Creekbank$Road.$As$a$response$to$ this,$the$Toronto$West$market’s$average$net$asking$rate$dropped$$1.40$per$square$foot$to$$16.19. Taking$a$closer$look$at$Toronto’s$downtown$core,$the$major$banks$have$been$seen$starting$to$execute$their$pandemic$ contingency$plans,$as$both$Scotiabank$and$Citibank$have$re9configured$their$headquarter$leases$this$quarter.$Scotiabank$ extended$its$560,000$square$foot$occupation$at$Scotia$Plaza$(40$King$Street$West$and$100$Yonge$Street)$while$Citibank$also$ extended$at$123$Front$Street$West.$Though$Scotiabank$has$been$actively$downsizing$and$consolidating$for$the$past$few$ years,$it$is$worth$noting$that$they$will$be$vacating$the$top$two$floors$of$Scotia$Plaza$as$part$of$this$renewal.$Many$ commercial$real$estate$professionals$have$been$speculating$that$Toronto’s$big$banks$will$shift$to$a$“hoteling”$type$of$ occupancy$where$most$individual$employees$do$not$have$an$assigned$seat.$This$method$has$previously$been$adopted$by$ some$larger$tenants,$most$notably$Deloitte$at$8$Adelaide$Street$West$and$PwC$at$18$York$Street. Canada’s$unemployment$rate$dropped$significantly$from$8.8%$in$December$to$7.5%$in$March,$the$lowest$it$has$been$since$ February$2020$and$well$below$the$market$expectation$of$8%.$Looking$towards$the$summer$months,$tenants$will$watch$ Ontario’s$roll9out$of$vaccinations$to$determine$their$return$to$office$strategies. Significant Lease Transactions • Scotiabank,%560,000%SF,%40%King%Street%West%&%100%Yonge%Street • Citibank,%70,500%SF,%123%Front%Street%West • Northland%Power,%34,000%SF,%30%St.%Clair%Avenue%West • Procom,%23,903%SF,%30%St.%Clair%Avenue%West • DPM%Energy%Inc.,%17,000%SF,%277%Cityview Boulevard • POI,%16,000%SF,%3389%Steeles%Avenue%East Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 2 Toronto Office GTA Overview Q1 2021 Supply Vacancy Average Net Rent Net Absorption 259,124,676 SF 7.1% $22.54/SF -2,044,194 SF Arrows#Indicate#One#Quarter#Change Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rates Q3 Q4 Q1 & Availability Rates Downtown 3.4% 3.9% 5.2% Midtown 3.9% 4.5% 5.2% Vacancy Rates The#vacancy#rate#is#the#percentage#of#all#units#in#a#rental# Toronto North 6.3% 7.3% 7.6% property,#that#are#vacant#or#unoccupied#at#a#particular# Toronto East 6.9% 7.9% 8.3% time.# Toronto West 8.8% 9.0% 10.9% Availability Rates The#availability#rate#is#the#percentage#of#total#rentable# Durham 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% space#available#including#new#developments#under# Overall GTA 5.7% 6.3% 7.1% construction.# Taking a closer look at Toronto’s downtown core, the major banks have been seen starting to execute their pandemic contingency plans, as both Scotiabank and Citibank have re-configured their headquarter leases this quarter. New Construction and Absorption 4,000,000 12.0% 3,000,000 9.0% 2,000,000 Forecast 6.0% 1,000,000 3.0% 0 0.0% G1,000,000 G3.0% G2,000,000 G3,000,000 G6.0% Q3#2017 Q4#2017 Q1#2018 Q2#2018 Q3#2018 Q4#2018 Q1#2019 Q2#2019 Q3#2019 Q4#2019 Q1#2020 Q2#2020 Q3#2020 Q4#2020 Q1#2021 Q2#2021 Q3#2021 Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 3 Toronto Office GTA Overview Availability By Market Office Market 700 Insights 600 1. Over 4,700,000 sf worth of 500 sublease space is currently available across the GTA as just 400 over 3% of that supply was 300 absorbed by active tenants. A significant portion of these 200 transactions were by tenants in industries such as e-commerce 100 and logistics who have experienced massive growth 0 during the pandemic. Do wnto wn Midtown Toronto#North Toronto#East Toronto#West Du rha m Class#A Class#B Class#C 2. Commercial real estate research Significant Availabilities provider, Altus Group published a study this quarter stating that a Market Address Size-(SF) WFH-hybrid type of occupancy structure is becoming more widely Downtown 141#Bay#Street 630,291#SF accepted as the pandemic Midtown 160#Bloor#Street#East 171,401#SF continues into 2021. The study, which pulls its data from Toronto#North 5000#Yonge#Street 117,375#SF canvassing CRE executives across Toronto#East 160#McNabb#Street 188,500#SF Canada, expects occupiers to Toronto#West 1950#Meadowvale#Boulevard 160,650#SF downsize by 10%-20% across major Canadian office markets. Durham 419#King#Street#West 65,273#SF 3. Controversial co-working leader, WeWork refuses to abandon its core spaces as many of these Annual Greater Toronto Area offices remain vacant across major Canadian cities. WeWork Market Review believes it is well-positioned for post-pandemic work by offering flexible lease terms with furnished Q1 2020 and turn-key workspaces. • 3.6% Vacancy Rate 4. • $25.40 Average Net Asking Rent RioCan and Daniels unveiled • 2,659,021 SF Net Absorption their plans to redevelop Scarborough’s Golden Mile Q1 2021 Shopping Centre into a mixed-use, transit-oriented community. The project’s first ! 7.1% Vacancy Rate phase will include 44 and ! $22.54 Average Net Asking Rent 38-storey condominium towers, ! -2,044,194 SF Net Absorption street-level retail and office space. Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 4 Toronto Office Downtown Toronto Q1 2021 Supply Vacancy Average Net Rent Net Absorption 98,699,703 SF 5.2% $31.76/SF -805,293 SF Arrows#Indicate#One#Quarter#Change Availability Trends Vacancy Rate Q3 Q4 Q1 300 Financial Core 3.8% 4.8% 5.3% 250 Outer Financial Core 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% Downtown North 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 200 Downtown South 1.6% 2.2% 4.6% 150 Downtown East 3.1% 4.4% 4.6% 100 Downtown West 4.4% 5.5% 7.3% 50 King/Dufferin 1.8% 2.5% 4.0% Overall 3.4% 3.9% 5.2% 0 0>5k 5>10k 10>20K 20>50K 50K+ Q1#2021#Class #A Q1#2021#Class #B Q1#2021#Class #C New Construction and Absorption 2,000,000 12.00% 1,500,000 9.00% Forecast 1,000,000 6.00% 500,000 3.00% 0 0.00% >500,000 >3.00% >1,000,000 >6.00% Q3#2017 Q4#2017 Q1#2018 Q2#2018 Q3#2018 Q4#2018 Q1#2019 Q2#2019 Q3#2019 Q4#2019 Q1#2020 Q2#2020 Q3#2020 Q4#2020 Q1#2021 Q2#2021 Q3#2021 Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Significant Availabilities 141 Bay St 2 Queen St E 95 Wellington St W 25 Ontario St 630,291 SF 182,751 SF 154,408 SF 84,109 SF Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 5 Toronto Office Midtown Toronto Q1 2021 Supply Vacancy Average Net Rent Net Absorption 22,150,628 SF 5.0% $25.02/SF -107,061 SF Arrows#Indicate#One#Quarter#Change Availability Trends Vacancy Rate Q3 Q4 Q1 100 Bloor 3.0% 3.6% 4.0% 90 St. Clair 2.2% 3.0% 3.3% 80 70 Eglinton 4.6% 4.9% 5.7% 60 Overall 3.9% 4.5% 5.0% 50 40 30 20 10 0 0D5k 5D10k 10D20K 20D50K 50K+ New Construction and Absorption Q1#2021#Class #A Q1#2021#Class #B Q1#2021#Class #C 250,000 6.00% 200,000 5.00% 4.00% 150,000 Forecast 3.00% 100,000 2.00% 50,000 1.00% 0 0.00% D50,000 D1.00% D100,000 D2.00% D150,000 D3.00% Q3#2017 Q4#2017 Q1#2018 Q2#2018 Q3#2018 Q4#2018 Q1#2019 Q2#2019 Q3#2019 Q4#2019 Q1#2020 Q2#2020 Q3#2020 Q4#2020 Q1#2021 Q2#2021 Q3#2021 Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Significant Availabilities 160 Bloor St E 120 Bloor St E 175 Bloor St E 130 Merton St 171,401 SF 158,475 SF 122, 585 SF 58,023 SF Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 6 Toronto Office Toronto North Q1 2021 Supply Vacancy Average Net Rent Net Absorption 24,151,309 SF 7.6% $18.87/SF -55,684 SF Arrows#Indicate#One#Quarter#Change Availability Trends Vacancy Rate Q3 Q4 Q1 120 North Toronto Region 5.8% 7.2% 8.1% 100 North Yonge Corridor 7.0% 8.6% 9.5% 80 Vaughan 5.0% 6.0% 6.4% 60 North York West 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 40 Overall 6.3% 7.3% 7.6% 20 0 0A5k 5A10k 10A20K 20A50K 50K+ Q1#2021#Class #A Q1#2021#Class #B Q1#2021#Class #C New Construction and Absorption 700,000 14.00% 600,000 12.00% Forecast 500,000 10.00% 400,000 8.00% 300,000 6.00% 200,000 4.00% 100,000 2.00% 0 0.00% A100,000 A2.00% A200,000 A4.00% A300,000 A6.00% Q3#2017 Q4#2017 Q1#2018 Q2#2018 Q3#2018 Q4#2018 Q1#2019 Q2#2019 Q3#2019 Q4#2019 Q1#2020 Q2#2020 Q3#2020 Q4#2020 Q1#2021 Q2#2021 Q3#2021 Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Significant Availabilities 5000 Yonge St 5250 Yonge St 5650 Yonge St 4881 Yonge St 117,375 SF 115,357 SF 105,379 SF 98,933 SF Q1#2021#Market#Insight#Report 7 Toronto Office Toronto East Q1 2021 Supply Vacancy Average Net Rent Net Absorption 46,297,395 SF 8.3% $13.77/SF -94,765 SF Arrows#Indicate#One#Quarter#Change Vacancy Rate Q3 Q4 Q1 Availability Trends 160 Consumers Road 9.7% 10.7% 13.9% 140 DVP North/Duncan Mill 5.4% 5.7% 6.0% 120 DVP South/Don Mills/ Eglinton 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 100 80 East Toronto Region 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 60 Gordon Baker/Victoria Park 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 40 Markham/Richmond Hill 4.0% 4.9% 5.1% 20 Scarborough
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