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5.1 Latent Demand for Car Sharing Practices Ref. Ares(2018)3457847 - 29/06/2018 Research and Innovation action H2020-MG-2016-2017 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market Deliverable D3.2 Version n° 2 Authors: Peter Wells (CU), Haokun Liu (CU), Suzi Maurice (LGI), Esti Sanvicente (LGI), Stefano Beccaria (GM) www.stars-h2020.eu This project has received funding from the Horizon 2020 programme under the grant agreement n°769513 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market DISCLAIMER The content of this deliverable reflects only the author’s view. The European Commission and INEA are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. GA n°769513 Page 2 of 85 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market Document Information Grant Agreement 769513 Project Title Shared mobility opporTunities And challenges foR European citieS Project Acronym STARS Project Start Date 01 October 2017 Related work package WP 3 Related task(s) Task 3.2 Lead Organisation CU Submission date 30 JUNE 2018 Dissemination Level Public History Date Submitted by Reviewed by Version (Notes) 08 June 2018 CU Paul Nieuwenhuis D32_08062018 Marco Diana D32_08062018 Ben Waller D32_08062018 Johannes D32_08062018 Rodenbach GA n°769513 Page 3 of 85 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market Table of Content Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 7 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 8 2 Impacts of car-sharing on the EU automobile market ......................................................... 10 2.1 Context: Trends in the EU automotive market ........................................................................ 10 2.1.1 Anti-diesel sentiment across the EU ....................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 CO2 emissions and air quality .................................................................................................. 11 2.1.3 Urban governance in the EU’s major cities ............................................................................. 12 2.1.4 Impacts on car-sharing practice .............................................................................................. 17 2.2 Context: Market regulation differences .................................................................................. 21 3 Scale and character of market for new passenger cars ....................................................... 25 3.1 Short term implications of the new passenger car market ...................................................... 26 3.1.1 Routes to market ..................................................................................................................... 26 3.2 Long term implications of the new passenger car market ....................................................... 30 3.2.1 Retaining a population of drivers ............................................................................................ 33 3.2.2 Car sharing customer vs. new car purchasing profiles ............................................................ 34 3.2.3 Re-appraisal of automobility dependence .............................................................................. 35 3.2.4 Product mix, electric vehicle as an example ............................................................................ 36 3.3 Other social impacts on the new passenger car market .......................................................... 37 3.3.1 Customer segments ................................................................................................................. 39 3.3.2 Stage of life .............................................................................................................................. 39 3.3.3 Motivations .............................................................................................................................. 40 3.3.4 Multi-car households ............................................................................................................... 42 3.3.5 Lifestyle .................................................................................................................................... 42 3.3.6 Trip purposes ........................................................................................................................... 43 4 Impact on overall market and other initiatives ................................................................... 43 4.1 Compete/cooperate with other transport modes ................................................................... 44 4.1.1 Integrated car sharing systems ................................................................................................ 45 4.1.2 Non-integrated car sharing systems ........................................................................................ 46 4.1.3 Other implications ................................................................................................................... 46 5 Scope/market opportunities for the car sharing models ..................................................... 51 5.1 Latent demand for car sharing practices ................................................................................. 51 5.2 Examples of successful car sharing business models ............................................................... 52 5.2.1 Current success factors and future prospects ......................................................................... 52 5.2.2 Scope for future success .......................................................................................................... 61 5.2.3 Merger and acquisition............................................................................................................ 64 5.2.4 New entrants or departures .................................................................................................... 68 5.2.5 Geographical issues ................................................................................................................. 68 5.2.6 Market opportunities and strategies for car sharing expansion ............................................. 73 6 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 75 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................... 76 GA n°769513 Page 4 of 85 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market List of Tables Table 1. Urban regulations and measurements in the EU ............................................................. 13 Table 2. Overview on tax incentives for electric vehicles in the EU .............................................. 19 Table 3. Overview of electric car-sharing in European cities ......................................................... 21 Table 4. Comparison of VAT rates for competing forms of mobility across Europe ....................... 22 Table 5. The main routes to market .............................................................................................. 28 Table 7. DriveNow operations in the EU ....................................................................................... 65 List of Figures Figure 1. New passenger car registrations .................................................................................... 10 Figure 2. New passenger car registrations breakdown by share of diesel ..................................... 11 Figure 3. Percentage of journey stages by type of transport, London ............................................ 14 Figure 4. European carsharing landscape ..................................................................................... 17 Figure 5. Total battery electric vehicle registrations ....................................................................... 18 Figure 6. A comparison of prices for mobility options in Paris........................................................ 23 Figure 7. New passenger car registration in Western Europe ....................................................... 25 Figure 8. Car registrations for the first time by keepership in Great Britain .................................... 26 Figure 9. New registrations of passenger cars in the years 20010 to 2016 ................................... 26 Figure 10. Leading car sharing services ranked by number of vehicles in Germany as of January 2018 ...................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 11. Europe’s vehicle sales forecasting ............................................................................... 32 Figure 12. Daimler & BMW Joint Venture ...................................................................................... 32 Figure 13. Map of projects ........................................................................................................... 48 Figure 14. Car sharing in Germany, 1997 to 2018. ........................................................................ 63 GA n°769513 Page 5 of 85 Review of the Impacts on the Automobility Market Acronyms AAQ European Ambient Air Quality LEZ Low Emission Zone European Automotive ACEA Manufacturers’ Association LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas AFV Alternative Fuel Vehicle OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer BEV Battery Electric Vehicle PM Particulate Matter CC Congestion Charging
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