april 1934

The Struggle in Spain

Luis Araquistáin

Volume 12 • Number 3

The contents of Foreign Affairs are copyrighted.©1934 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this material is permitted only with the express written consent of Foreign Affairs. Visit www.foreignaffairs.com/permissions for more information. THE STRUGGLE IN SPAIN

By Luis Araquist?in

TO GAIN an idea of the future of the Spanish Republic we must examine the various ideological tendencies of the now to social and political forces struggling dominate and a our we transform it. As point of departure for study shall analyze the state of these forces in November and December of 1933, because two events of extraordinary importance took place two during those months: the second general election of the to Republic and the fourth anarcho-syndicalist insurrection occur since the fall of the monarchy. on Novem Superficially, the elections (which took place, first on seem to a ber 19, and secondly December 3) would spell dis was aster for the Republic which declared under such smiling on 14, 1931. In the constituent elected auspices April assembly ? in une of that the of the J year non-republican parties ? Right etc. some the Agrarian Party, the Basque Nationalists, had 30 In the new Cortes have 200 out of a total of 473. deputies. they ? The republican parties of the Left Radical-Socialists, Acci?n Federalists and of Catalonia and Republicana,? Regionalists Galicia which counted some in the constituent 130 deputies to new assembly, returned only about 30 the parliament. Four ministers found themselves without seats. The Socialists had 70 more deputies, scarcely than half the number in the first parlia ment. Alone the Radical Party, commanded by Se?or Lerroux, even preserved and somewhat augmented its original strength. so a What is the explanation of profound change of public more opinion? The explanation is very simple: the change is ap as seen we the election parent than real, will be when analyze case results, and in any is much less than the change which pre viously occurred in the parties themselves and in their relations one some with another. First, I shall set forth preliminaries. In 1931, the old monarchist oligarchies and their cacique organ tne izations throughout the countryside, frightened by sudden acts advent of the Republic and by certain of popular violence, as to vote such the burning of convents, allowed the electorate as at it pleased the July elections, the freest and least corrupt ever held in Spain. In these elections were lacking the three voters coercive elements which traditionally affected Spanish

Council on Foreign Relations is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve, and extend access to Foreign Affairs ® www.jstor.org THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN 459 votes: (especially in rural districts) and determined their the coercion of the public authorities by various devices adopted in to the days of the monarchy confuse the popular will and the results of the ballot; the moral coercion of the Church in pulpit and confessional; and the economic coercion of the landed pro The result was a tremendous for the prietors. triumph Left, because the immense majority of the Spanish people, age-long as a victims of injustice and poverty, desired, they still desire, an to policy which will put end oligarchical privilege. During the two a and half years of the Republic the classes defeated at the polls in 1931, but actually intact, have reformed and reorganized themselves. to The Republican-Socialist government wished smash caci means quismo (bossism) by of three basic laws: agrarian reform, mixed juries, and municipal districts. The agrarian reform pro to poses chiefly place in the control of the people and of the rural a unions the huge estates of Andalusia and Extremadura, with to view their collective exploitation. The passage of this law would east have given the agrarian population of the south and of Spain economic independence, without which political has been a and will remain pure myth. But the agrarian reform so far has been little more than a law on paper, because the men and with its execution have shown organizations charged perhaps the lowest level of efficiency in the entire government of the Republic. or The law of mixed juries, arbitrators, between masters and workers, which already existed to deal with conflicts between capital and labor in industry and commerce, and which the was Republic extended to agriculture, aimed fundamentally at ending the system of starvation wages which has obtained for centuries in the country districts of Spain. When the Republic was of one-and-a-half and two were inaugurated, wages pesetas current a to for day's work from sunrise sunset, and that only for or five six months of the year. During the rest of the year un was employment almost absolute. Even during the first year of the republican r?gime the average agricultural daily wage rose to or at to or five six pesetas, and harvest time eight ten pesetas, and even more in certain districts, thanks to the work contracts arranged by mixed juries. was This improvement also induced in part by the law of municipal districts, perhaps the most of all the laws 460 FOREIGNAFFAIRS at dictated by the Republic. This law strikes the old caciquismo its very heart. It simply prohibits the admission of workers from so as are other districts long there unemployed in the district one itself. Under the monarchy, the migration of workers from a locality to another was fomented, with double purpose: first, to lower wages by providing unlimited supplies of labor; second, to compel the workers in each district to vote at election time for on re those who controlled the local caciques, penalty of being new placed by strangers. The law tended to restrict the economic over and political power of the landowners the workers in each more district, by eliminating the competition of cheaper and sub missive labor. common con The denominator of the reactionary parties is trol of the land, and thereby political and economic control over the working classes. But there are different shades which now distinguish the various parties; and these I shall briefly are no explain. There four leading parties. The largest, with representatives, is the C.E.D.A. {Confederaci?n Espa?ola de a Derechas Aut?nomas), group of provincial political organiza tions which has adopted the parliamentary title of the Minor?a a Popular Agraria. It is controlled by Se?or Gil Robles, professor at the University of Salamanca, and the majority of its members are relatively young men, between the ages of thirty and forty. two are The main planks in their platform the preservation of landed property and the defence of the Catholic religion. Their to as aim is organize Catholic trade unions such existed in to to prior Fascism and in Germany prior National , and such as still exist in Belgium. In accordance with the oppor tunist doctrine of the Catholic Church, their leader has declared his indifference to the actual form of government and his support as of the Republic the existing r?gime. If the Republic is consoli as a dated parliamentary system, this Catholic Party may a can become powerful force permanently, though it hardly maintain its present numerical strength. next The largest, with 36 representatives, is the Agrarian Party proper, which is also Catholic, but places its landed interests or ahead of all other considerations, political religious. Although most came of the members from the old monarchist parties, shrewd opportunism and the chance of influencing the destinies to of the Republic have caused them also regard the form of government as incidental. The future of this party is not very THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN 461 ? clear. It is that an irreconcilable like the probable? minority C.E.D.A. minority will join the frankly monarchist party, and that the others, in the course of time, will merge with the two party led by Gil Robles. The program of these parties is to or new as simplicity itself: abrogate distort the social laws, as well those which restrict the power of the Church, particu to or larly those prohibiting the religious orders teach engage in or lucrative industrial commercial activities. In general, these a parties accept the separation of Church and State, but demand Concordat with Rome. to men Amongst these parties of the Right there remain be tioned two monarchist both of no numerical avowedly ? parties, ? Renovaci?n whose importance: Espa?ola 15 representatives to restore on aim is the Bourbon-Hapsburg dynasty, overthrown 20 April 12, 1931, and the traditionalist group? representatives ? are a who survivors from the old Carlist Party. From parlia two no mentary point of view, these parties have future; their r?le will be that of the Camelots du Roi in France, but they lack the talents of l'Action Fran?aise. Outside the national orbit of this constellation, but akin in a tendency, there is fifth group, the Basque-Navarre minority, which is likewise Catholic and ultra-conservative. But as soon as autonomy has been granted to the Basque country, as will or certainly be done by the present next Cortes, this minority concentrate on will lose interest in national politics and regional now problems. This is happening with the Catalan parties, that they have achieved local autonomy, and it also will happen to the O.R.G.A., or Galician autonomist party. To the Left of these parties of the Right is the Centre Party of the Republic, the Radicals under the leadership of Alejandro Lerroux. and on in its remote ? Demagogic bordering ? origins it is the oldest republican organization this party is zone situated in the temperate of the Republic, and represents, or to aspires represent, the non-agrarian interest of the Spanish middle classes. Its importance in the development of republican politics has been immense. It separated from the Republican a Socialist government, of which it was part, on learning that, con being the largest and most historical republican force in the was stituent assembly, next to the Socialist minority, it being over newer passed in favor of policies and in favor of younger was men, like Se?or Azara. He president of several cabinets, 462 FOREIGN AFFAIRS men breaking angrily with the and parties with whom he had collaborated in the setting up of the Republic. He contributed more to than anybody else the dissolution of the constituent reason assembly in October 1933, by of his prolonged and to powerful opposition the Republican-Socialist government, not when the latter had yet completed their labors and some of were torn the Republican parties by internecine strife. The first government of Se?or Lerroux, formed in September to 1933, hastened suspend law of municipal districts, and also to began maladminister the law of mixed agricultural juries. Both laws had been bitterly opposed by the parties of the Right, who essentially represent the interests of the rural proprietors of the feudal and large landowning type. Since the time of Romero Robledo, the great master of the art of currupting elections under the monarchy, there had not been an as electoral contest in Spain corrupt as that of 1933. The par ties of the Right, in alliance with Se?or Lerroux, squandered ? or money by the handful it is calculated that at least ten fif teen were million pesetas invested, principally donated by the ? not on on landed aristocracy legitimate propaganda, but buying votes, taking advantage of the unemployment and pov a voters were so erty of section of the rural population. If the as to were heroic resist bribery, in spite of their hunger, they not to not threatened with being taken back work if they did vote for their old bosses; and when they also resisted this, the was threat fulfilled. At this moment, in thousands of Spanish or villages, workers affiliated with the Socialist Party, with the unions connected with the Uni?n General de Trabajadores are a men one everywhere denied work. If there is shortage of in are locality, they brought from another. The law of municipal districts does not function at all. In to means of economic was addition these coercion, pucherazo as never practised before. This classical word in Spanish electoral a slang signifies counting in favor of candidate the votes which have not been cast, either due to the voluntary abstention of the or access to voters because they have been forbidden the booths by the armed agents of the parties protected by the government and its immediate embodiment, the local authorities. This method is usual in remote villages, in inaccessible mountain no regions, where the parties of the Left, being very poor, have to nor can inspectors prevent fraud, notaries before whom they THE STRUGGLE IN SPAIN 463

testify. As many victorious candidates cynically confessed, there more were pucherazos in the last elections than in the best days of so as the monarchy. Those elections, far the methods were con were cerned, typically monarchist. as never In passing, I must also say that the Church worked before, with its powerful press, from the pulpit and the confes sional, for the triumph of the Catholic candidates. The campaign was directed by the active and intelligent Nuncio at Madrid. As Henri IV found that "Paris vaut bien une messe" the Roman Church must have decided that the desired abrogation or modi new fication of Article 26 of the Spanish constitution was worth some sacrifices. This is the article dissolving the order of the Jesuits (without, however, expelling them from Spain, as did His Most Catholic Majesty Carlos III in 1767) and limiting the scholastic and economic activities of the other orders and of the clergy in general. errors One of the greatest of the constituent assembly was the now to passing of the electoral law in force. According this law, a no candidate must win forty percent of the votes cast. If candi a date achieves this figure there is second election; and this result votes. stands, whatever the proportion of The authors of this law thought that the Republican-Socialist parties would maintain the coalition of 1933, and that, in almost every electoral district, those parties would win by the necessary majority. The law puts a on premium large coalitions. All these calculations proved erroneous. The Republican parties and the Socialist Party fought separately in almost every district. On the other hand, the Radical Party joined with the parties of the Right, with the avowed monarchists and with those who were wavering. was The following the result: Of the thirteen millions, in round census ? numbers, listed in the last electoral including both ? more sexes somewhat than eight millions voted. The coalition of Centre and Right obtained 3,385,000 votes. To this coalition belonged the C.E.D.A. {Confederaci?n Espa?ola de Derechas Aut?nomas), the Agrarian Party, the monarchist Renovaci?n Espa?ola, the Traditionalists (the old Carlists), the Conservative Republicans (of Miguel Maura), the Republican Democratic Liberals (of Melquiades Alvarez), the Radical Party, and maybe seven others. At least parties in all. The Radical Party fought some alone in districts, getting 700,000 votes; that, added to the a a more others, gives total of little than four million votes, that is, 464 FOREIGNAFFAIRS one votes cast. half of the Proportionately, therefore, this would com give the Right and Centre parties half of the 473 deputies the Chamber, in other words, Nevertheless, posing 236. ? according to the data available as these lines are written ? incomplete data, as the Chamber has not been constituted it is calculated seven that these parties will have 335 representatives, that is, 42 more than, the number of votes secured. percent they The Socialists obtained 1,722,000 votes in the districts where to 102 they fought independently, and they would be entitled or more now representatives instead of 60, 70 percent than they have. Allied with the Esquerra (Catalonian Republicans), and a with the Republicans in few districts in the rest of the country, more to they certainly polled 700,000 votes which, added the pre to vious figures, bring the total 2,400,000. This number of Social some ist and Republican-Socialist votes is the equivalent of 142 are new representatives; but there scarcely 80 in the Cortes. votes not The of the Republican parties who did ally themselves with the Radicals or Socialists, and the Communist votes (some amount to on a 145,000), 785,000. This would call, proportional are n. basis, for 45 representatives; but there only seen were As may be from these facts, the Republican parties not an crushed, by the Right but by absurd electoral law. If the even Republican parties had remained united for the elections, not supposing that the Socialists did join the alliance, it is doubt ful whether all the parties of the Right together would have totalled even a with sort of hundred^ representatives; any pro even portional representation, they would probably have gained less, especially if the authorities had refrained from political and economic coercion. ? ? the result of an absurd electoral law Despite appearances as as was Spain continued in 1933 to be republican it in 1931. so Rarely in any country has any parliament falsely represented as the national will the second parliament of the Spanish Re not to votes public. It is possible calculate the obtained by each one can no none of the coalition parties. But there be doubt that votes of them would approximate to the 1,700,000 polled inde not to pendently by the Socialists, mention those of the afore mentioned coalitions with the Republicans. The Socialist Party undoubtedly represents the greatest electoral force in Spain. Born in 1872, under the influence of Lafargue, 's son come in-law, who had to Madrid, its development has been slow, THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN 465 because of its simultaneous struggle against anarchism and monarchism. But though slow it has been steady. The advent of masses the Republic showed that it had back of it huge of citizens who until then had had no way of making themselves felt. a The Radical-Right alliance, formed with view to the elec tions, called itself the anti-Marxist coalition. In their press and campaign speeches its leaders represented the Spanish Socialists as savage hordes, who had burst up from below in order to destroy wealth, culture, religion, the family, and all other traditional values. What was the basis for this terrifying image of Spanish Socialism ?None. Any liberal party in any civilized country would to subscribe its work in the administration of the Republic. It had to seven or a helped build eight thousand schools in country or as are more where three four times many necessary, and where can nor than half the population neither read write. Through mixed juries and the laws of municipal districts and of agrarian reform it had tried to put an end to starvation wages and to shake the immense power, social and political, of the landed to aristocracy and bourgeoisie. It had tried stimulate the develop ment to unem of the national wealth and diminish compulsory are at more ployment (the unemployed estimated something than a half million) by promoting irrigation and other public works. The destructive activities of Spanish Socialism consisted in a cannot sanctioning few modest lay laws which scandalize any one a to who realizes the necessity for nation be sovereign in its own and some measures of borders, exceptional expropriation, dictated by Se?or Alzana's government against the authors and accomplices of the monarchist rising of August 10, 1932. It has not even modified the system of taxation, which relies chiefly on taxes. one indirect Spain is the country in Europe where the rich contribute less and the poor more to the support of the state. at If the Socialists sinned all, during the time when they had three ministers in office, it was in the direction of excessive moderation; the working classes accepted that moderation with resignation, for the sake of the general welfare of the Republic; the privileged classes would not accept it, but instead tried to discredit the as a collaboration of the Socialists by depicting them monstrous creation of . matter It would little if this hostility towards the Socialists were merely unfair. But it is also highly dangerous. Those who are anxious to destroy the Socialist political organizations 466 FOREIGN AFFAIRS seem to and unions forget that, if they succeed, they will remove now also the last bulwark which keeps the working classes within the laws and politics of gradual change. If that bulwark falls what will prevent the onrush of and anarcho-, that is, the most violent forms of social ? not Hitherto the development of communism in Spain has are or gone very far. There three four tiny communist parties, all to fighting amongst themselves for the title purest orthodoxy. as are They lack leaders, and such they have mostly disgruntled one deserters from other political camps. There is only communist new some representative in the parliament. Nevertheless, in towns manufacturing districts in the north, like Bilbao, in certain a was a in Asturias, and in few provinces of Andalusia, there noticeable increase in the communist vote at the last elections. as a If the Socialist Party should decline result of processes of or as a a natural attrition, result of persecution by the Right, part or masses to of the disillusioned antagonized would go swell the ranks of the Communist Party. The conservative classes who not would like to silence socialism in Spain do perceive that they are to thus contributing the increase of communism. As they leave Scylla they approach Charybdis. But this would not be the worst. After all, communism is a as not theory of government like socialism and such it is repugnant even cer to historic reason, though its postulates may displease tain social classes. The same cannot be said for anarchism which, an as we know, denies the state and authority in any form. It is can ideal of perfection which exist only in the world of Utopian In imagination and abstract philosophy. the real world in which we anarchism could lead us to social chaos as a re live, only and, masses action, to instinctive dictatorship. The greater part of the were to who follow socialism in Spain today, would, if it degener ate or be destroyed, take refuge in the F. A. I. {Federaci?n del Anarquista Ib?rica) and the C. N. T. {Confederaci?n Nacional Trabajo), which represent anarcho-syndicalism, anti-state syn dicalism. is of the The history of Spanish socialism chiefly the history to turn from the and struggle the working classes away myths two metnods of anarchism and anarcho-syndicalism. The doc In 1868 trines penetrated into Spain almost simultaneously. an who came as arrived Italian deputy, Giuseppe Fanelli, repre THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN 467

sentative of the Social Democratic Alliance, anarchist despite its title, which had been founded in Switzerland by Bakunin in to or opposition the International Association of Workers, First International, under the influence of Karl Marx. Fanelli created to the Spanish Regional Federation, allied Bakunin's organiza tion. on From the very beginning, anarchist propaganda caught in an Spain with enthusiasm and intensity unknown in any other country. Proof is that whereas in the rest of the world anarchism or or has either totally disappeared, has evolved into legal forms, to a has simply been reduced school of philosophy, in Spain alone it saw preserves its original organization and virulence. We this in the four anarcho-syndicalist risings which have occurred since the inauguration of the Republic: the first in July 1931, the second in January 1932, the third in January 1933, and the fourth in December 1933, all four with increasing range and intensity. In the last, the insurrectionists had thousands of guns at their a were disposal and more than hundred thousand bombs. There numerous revolutionary centers in provinces, particularly in those where the socialist influence is weakest, and hundreds were was killed and wounded. It undoubtedly the most violent civil a insurrection which has occurred in Spain for century. to Why does anarchism persist in Spain? Some attribute it to racial reasons, the peculiarly individualistic psychology of the as our Spanish, manifested in certain Hispano-Arabie thinkers, in mystics, in our art, and in the discoverers and conquerors of former centuries. Without denying racial and national influences, a or which obviously transform universal political religious idea into one of another it to the character of type, adapting the peo ple in question, I believe that the reasons for the persistence of are more an anarchism in Spain cultural and historical than In thropological. the first place, it is noticeable that anarchism and syndicalism succeed better in those regions where the prole tariat is least educated: in certain parts of Catalonia, in Aragon, on some the Mediterranean coast, and in provinces of the south east. In not a and Catalonia it has been cultural problem only. to Anarchism, hostility any kind of state, is complicated there by Catalan nationalism, sometimes federalist, sometimes autono mist, sometimes frankly separatist, which sees in the central state its historic enemy. On the other hand, we must remember that, even in Catalonia, the great anarchist contingent is drawn from 468 FOREIGNAFFAIRS most rest the illiterate provinces of the of Spain and from the ranks of the most unskilled labor. a Consider, for example, Hospitalet, large suburb of was one with some fifty thousand inhabitants. Hospitalet of the chief centers of the anarchist rising last December. The majority are in of the population is anarchist, and there dozens of schools which the children are arithmetic the taught by setting problems in terms of bombs, pistols and machine guns. In these schools the boys and girls practice complete nudism, and from the age of are am fourteen they given complete sexual liberty. Further, I assured that in Hospitalet sexual communism is widespread amongst the adult anarchist population. Note that the inhabi tants of this suburb come, for the most part, from provinces other than Catalonia, and particularly from Murcia, in the south.1 are most are stone They predominantly illiterate, and of them as a cutters. The typical anarchist usually begins young man, a can nor almost youth, who generally neither read write, and a a a has not skilled job. Anarchism is seed which finds rich soil in primitive and anti-historical mentalities. a Historically, anarchism has further explanation in Spain. was While in other countries education spreading amongst the more working classes, and while the state was becoming human to mon ized by the extension of political rights all classes, the a archist state in Spain, under constitutional disguise, preserved an or all the characteristics of Asiatic Egyptian autocracy. To the anarchists the monarchist state was not hateful Spanish only was a intrinsically, but also because it specifically brutal and state. despotic This explains the otherwise strange fact that in the last third of the nineteenth century some of the republican were parties tinged with the federalist and anarchist ideas of Proudhon and that the anarchist organizations sometimes allied themselves with these parties. Nevertheless, this thesis seems to contradict what has hap two a new pened during the and half years of the Republic. The r?gime has multiplied the schools and granted political and social liberties which did not exist before. Despite this, anarcho-syndi calism has revolted four times against the Republic. Those who or revolted were not moved by any question of wages hours. Nor could it be said that economic conditions were worse under the

11 am indebted for these facts to Francisco Madrid, author of a forthcoming book entitled "La F. A. I." THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN 469 On con Republic than they had been under the monarchy. the rose trary, as I have stated, wages considerably, not only in agri culture, but also in industry and commerce, and the eight-hour could be the day is rigorously enforced everywhere. What, then, motive of those four risings? was an In the first place, there probably assumption that the state was weaker than the monarchist state republican much and, therefore, that it would be easier to overthrow it and establish was libertarian communism. Secondly, there the hope that if the failed the would not be harsh in rising Republic very suppressing? it, and that it would be indulgent in the hour of punishment was which was the case. In the third place, there the fear lest the new from the social legislation of the Republic should detach F. A. I. and the C. N. T. great numbers of workers, bringing them into the U. G. T. {Uni?n General de Trabajadores), which ? as now follows the ideas of the Socialist Party is indeed hap was to pening. In this case, the object of the insurrections plant anew in the working classes the syndicalist myth of the and the utopia of libertarian communism, maintaining by cannot reason the magic of violence what possibly be preserved by or In was by the experience of history. the fourth place, there the necessity for justifying the large subscriptions of the workers two affiliated with the F. A. I. and the C. N. T. These organiza no account ex tions, unlike the U. G. T., give their members of a to penses incurred. The Republic voted law control the accounts of all union organizations, but it has been only half-heartedly or enforced. The financial abuses in the anarchist and syndicalist enormous. ganizations have always been The only justification for their secret levies is revolutionary activity. Hence in these anarch ist and insurrections the of the syndicalist ingenuous utopianism on masses ismixed with plain criminality the part of many leaders. a Anarcho-syndicalism is not necessarily danger to the state; but it can be dangerous to a state of the liberal and democratic type, like the Spanish Republic. The dictatorship of 1923, im posed by General Primo de Rivera, had its origins precisely in as a Barcelona, and many people justified it remedy against anarchist and syndicalist agitation and the terrorist shootings more which had preceded it in various regions of Spain, but a especially in the capital of Catalonia. The idea of similar dic some are tatorship still haunts the minds of Spaniards. What the possibilities that it might succeed? 47o FOREIGN AFFAIRS

at once set a We may aside any probability of restoration of the monarchy. The private life of Alfonso XIII, financial aspects of on his record, his great political blunders, and his flight April 14, leaving his family behind, rendered him definitely unacceptable to vast the majority of Spaniards. His children suffer from an are a race. hereditary illness; they the end of Another dynasty, as not to in the nineteenth century, is be thought of. In the twen tieth fall century when monarchies they fall forever; the republi can idea is universal. a secret can People talk of fascist organization. In Spain there no or be fascism of the Italian German type. There are no de as were mobilized men, there in Italy; there are no hundreds of men no nor thousands of young university with future, millions of as no even a unemployed, in Germany. There is Mussolini, nor are no nor Hitler; there imperialist ambitions sentiments of re no nor even a venge, problems of expansion, bad Jewish problem. Out of what could Spanish fascism be concocted? I cannot imagine the recipe. to People refer the military dictatorship of 1923, which lasted seven years, in the belief that history may repeat itself. The The analogy is false. apparent submission of the Spanish people to the coup d'?tat of General Primo de Rivera was more apparent was than real. We all knew and said that this the monarchy's last card, that the fall of the dictator would drag the throne into the abyss. It actually happened. Even the very stones would rise to a day against military dictatorship. It might be pieced together are can secretly, although there few regiments whose officers count on the men. unconditionally non-commissioned officers and a But if there is dictatorship, there will be revolution. This was solemnly agreed to and proclaimed by the Socialist Party in plenary parliamentary session. It will certainly be supported by the U. G. T. and probably by the F. A. I. and the C. N. T. The not dictatorship might conquer the revolution, but without much were bloodshed. If the military dictatorship conquered, Spain for a a certain time would be governed by working class dictator ship of socialist tendencies. are Such the forces today in Spain, political and non-political, or so visible latent. The antagonisms which separate them are not to profound and violent that it is easy fit them into the frame new work of parliamentary democracy. The Cortes has aggravated the situation. As I write, we have the Lerroux Government, THE STRUGGLEIN SPAIN

a a without real parliamentary majority. It is minority govern on can count on votes ment whose life depends how long it the of can count on so as the Right; and it these only long Se?or Lerroux, to like another Penelope, is willing unravel the social and lay or legislation of the Republic. When he tires of this labor, his at an partisans do, his government will be end. With the present no a new Cortes other government is possible, since parliamentary coalition of all Republican and Socialist parties is unthinkable. no The parties of the Right, in turn, have also parliamentary can majority, and it hardly be assumed that they would govern with the help of Se?or Lerroux, if the latter's government falls because it lacks the of those support parties. to the fact that the life of the Cortes Everything ? points present a to sanc will be brief few months perhaps, just long enough a tion the taxes, new and more equitable electoral law than the present, and some minor matters. With this new electoral law, a over and with genuinely republican government presiding the elections, guaranteeing the freedom of the ballot against the coercion of all the old oligarchies, Spain may be given representa tives in harmony with the national will. Then it is possible that recover the Republic will its political equilibrium and that parlia ment will again function efficiently. Another electoral mix-up as a like the last will finish the Republic parliamentary r?gime. For many it is, in fact already finished; they look only for extra measures. parliamentary One thing however is clear. The first and relatively peaceful stage of the Spanish political revolution terminated with the elec a tions of November and December. They ushered in new stage to not so which, according all indications, will be peaceful and more we will probably be less political and social, whether take the road to counter-revolution or resume the route. revolutionary to a All prophecy is bold. In this article I have tried be dry, if a realistic, expositor rather than prophet who prophesies what is agreeable.